You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listening on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
I'm June Grosso filling in for Joe Matthew. The twenty twenty four presidential election is likely going to be a repeat of the twenty twenty contest between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, but the stakes are much higher this time around, and Biden is going to try to deliver that message to voters. Joining me is Laura Davidson, Bloomberg Politics editor. Laura so Biden's campaign manager, says, they're going to treat this election like it will determine the
fate of American democracy. How are they going to do that?
Yeah, the campaign has already started trying to figure out, you know what messages, you know, in this broader democracy message are resonating with voters. Unlike in most cycles where you know you have a you wouldn't necessarily know who the opponent is. You know, they would have to go with the primary, wouldn't asiar go through the spring. The Biden campaign has a pretty clear idea that it's going to be Trump unless something a major upset happens in
the primaries. So they're already running a lot of ads trying to figure out what messages resonate with key groups. And Trump is also very much playing into this message if they're talking about you know, democracy and that Trump
is a threat to it. Trump is also talking using this very authoritative language, talking about other authoritative leaders that he admires, talking you know, some comments he's made recently that have been very reminiscent of remarks from Hitler, things like that immigrants are poisoning the blood of this country. So this has really given the Biden campaign a lot to run on now and get it basically a head start of where you know, campaigns typically start being able to figure out this messaging.
Yeah, and according to a Quinnipiac University poll that was released Wednesday, only fifty three percent of respondents are concerned about Trump's recent comments saying that he would be like a dictator on day one of his second term. Forty four percent of respond and said they aren't worried about that remark, and eighty four percent of Republicans say they aren't worried about that. So do you think that this Biden focus on the Trump threat is going to help to move the needle for him?
It certainly could. The Biden campaign so far has been talking about Bidenomics on all of the president's economic achievements. We even saw him go to Wisconsin this week to give a speech at the Black Chamber of Commerce there in Milwaukee to talk about his economic proposals and policies that so far in the polling hasn't really resonated with voters.
You know, you look at head to head matchups, including a Bloomberg poll shows that that voters in swing states, of which Wisconsin is one of, Trump is leading Biden
on some of these issues. So this is you know, kind of a not necessarily a shift, because the campaign was already going to talk about democracy, but you see them leaning more heavily into talking about democracy, talking about you know, Trump's comments about being a dictator, because they think that that's the messaging that will resonate more with voters versus some of these you know, more esoteric policies, more wonky things about you know, bills that have been
passed over the past several years.
You mentioned the economy. Voters also seem to be concerned with Biden's age. There's nothing that the campaign can do about that, but are they planning to frame it in any way?
Yeah, So there's been a couple of things they've been doing.
One is that they've just been trying to make sure that that Biden appears you know, as strong and as you know, vital as possible. The other thing is they've been making some jokes about the age. You know, Biden's been joking about that, you know, when he's been out on the campaign trail, you know, when he's been doing press conferences, just to make it, you know, less of a liability. The Camaine also points out that that that Trump is not that much younger than Biden.
He's just three or four years younger.
So this is, you know, going to be an issue. But when you look at where age resonates with voters, the age is much more of an issue for Biden than it is for Trump. And so that's going to be a key problem that the campaign is going to have to deal with growing forward.
I know.
And it's really surprising because, as you say, they are pretty close in age, and yet people are always complaining about Biden being too old. But you don't we usually hear people saying that about Trump. I don't know how they can turn that around. Really. So, now, despite this history that Trump has of racially divisive comments, surprisingly to me, he has some of the highest ratings among Black voters
of any candidate from his party. And the Trump campaign is going to try to push that and kick off some television ads and outreach to the black community. Tell us about that.
Yeah, so this is a deliberate strategy among the Trump campaign to try to pick up some votes in the Black community. You know, they're not. This is the community that has traditionally voted overwhelmingly for Democrats. You know, somewhere ninety percent or even north of that have broken for for the Democratic presidential candidates. But the Trump campaign season opening there there. If you look at some of the
polling right now, that shows what people are thinking. That's not necessarily people think in a year, but that Trump's favorability is rising among Black voters and Biden's favorability is declining. So they're seeing this, this opportunity here to maybe pick up some votes and if they are evile, just to get you know, three or four percentage points, you know, increase among Black voters. That could be the difference for
you know, a Biden win versus a Trump win. So they're aiming to get twenty five percent of the Black vote. That would be you know, historically, you know, way higher than any Republican presidential candidate has gotten you know, roughly twice. You know, that's they've maxed at around twelve thirteen percent over the past fifty years. But this is certainly, you know, something that the Biden campaign is worried about and actively trying to combat.
Is the Biden campaign or the Trump campaign particularly worried about third party candidates, of which there are several now and you have Kennedy in third place in that Quinnipiac poll.
Yeah, this is something that both campaigns are worried about because the risks there are sort of unknown and they could be very volatile. So, for example, you know, Robert F. Kennedy Junior, you know, had run as a Democrat, now is running as an independent. He's garnering you know, somewhere around you know, twenty two percent of the vote in that Quinnipiac poll. He's pulling pretty evenly from Trump and Biden, but you know, if that starts to change, that could
be a risk. There's also Cornell West who's running as an independent or. And there also is the uh NO labels group that is potentially going to launch a presidential campaign. Joe Manson has made some noise, so that could have a big influence you in some of these states like Pennsylvania, where Joe Manson is is well known and popular. You know, Biden really needs to win that state to be able
to win the presidency. So there's a lot of unknown variables here that could make this, you know, a surprising upset, you know, over the summer or the fall.
We've all seen how the third party candidate can make a difference. Thanks so much, Laura for joining us. That's Bloomberg Politics editor Laura Davison.
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Turning out is something millions of Americans are thinking of as they hit the road for the Christmas holidays, how much will it take to fill up their tanks. Joining us to answer that question is Patrick Dehan, head of petroleum analysis at gas Buddy. So, Patrick, what's the answer to the question?
Well, fortunately, gas prices have declined for thirteen weeks in the run up to Christmas. Here the holidays looking rather good. We're seeing now twenty eight states where the average price of gaslane is below that three dollars gallon mark. And while we've seen a little bit of an uptick here in the last couple of days as oil prices jump last week, we're still seeing north of ninety five thousand stations across the United States below that three dollars gallon mark.
Certainly some much lower prices in the last couple of weeks as we approach the holidays.
I'll confess that I don't own a car since I live in New York City. But how does that line up with last year?
Well, as a result of the little bit of a perk up and prices we've seen over the last couple of days, the national average is up about eight cents from last week's low. Gas prices now about three and a half cents above what we saw a year ago, and again we tried to make that run at a sub three dollars gallon national average. We got closer this year. Last week saw the national average declining to three to two a gallon. Last year we saw the bottom at
three Tozho five. But both years it looks like we're stopping just short of seeing that national average below the three dollar mark.
Given the Red Sea attacks and disrupting shipping, how have oil and gas prices managed to stay relatively contained well?
And that's part of the reason why we have seen a bit of a bottom, at least potentially short term in the price of gasoline. Oil prices have rallied on some of the who the attacks that you mentioned in the Red Sea. Obviously, that's certainly a worry. A lot of merchant vessels use the Red Sea in the Suez Canal, and so we'll have to keep an eye on that.
The other reason that gas prices of reality as well, optimism that the Federal Reserve could begin potentially cutting interest rates in twenty twenty four, sparking a rally in the stock market and oil on the hopes that it would lead to more economic growth, and that's why we're seeing a little bit of an uptick here in the last week when it comes to average gas prices.
And as it costs tankers more to avoid the Red Sea, can you put a price on how much potentially that could add to the cost of a gallon of gas.
Yeah, we're talking about a potential very small increase to price of gasoline. It really depends on how many ships end up having to divert away from the Red Sea. And you know, I would quantify it in the sense per gallon realm. I mean, we're talking about these large crude carriers that can carry one to two million barrels of oil per day, So it does water down the
potential cost differential. But what's more important as well is not necessarily the cost difference, but the time and transit, taking ten to fourteen days longer to traverse around the Red Sea. And that's something to keep the eye on here to see how many more of these tankers are being diverted away from the Red Sea in the weeks ahead.
So could this spark a supply chain crisis?
I don't think, given the fact that we are in the winter when demand tends to be lower this is going to rise in gravity to be a significant event. But if this does continue into the spring months, when we do start to see seasonal demand rising, or if we suddenly get a spurt of extremely cold weather, the red Sea could become a more profound issue in terms of the impact on oil prices, But for now it's fairly mundane.
Could all this the shipping delays driving up the price of goods? Could it potentially bring a new inflation risk to the global economy.
I would say at this point that that risk is quite minimal. The good news is that while gasoline prices have gone up slightly, the price of diesel has come down substantially, and a lot of that being driven by
warmer than normal temperatures for this time of year. So diesel is really the fuel that you'd have to carefully monitor for more of an effect on inflation, since much of the nation's final transit is using diesel, and the price of diesel actually has continued to sink in the last couple of weeks, in fact, falling below four dollars again nationally, so that would impact diesel more significantly, but
the warmer weather is really offsetting the risk. Thus, far from what's happening in the Red Sea.
In your at gas Buddy, do you find that consumers are worried as much about gas prices as say, a few years ago, and you know that it's something that factors into their travelsly.
I think gas prices remain the sole economic barometer. Americans see those prices on the street corner. It really sets the tone for how they feel about the broader economy. And seeing gas prices that as we mentioned that tens of thousands of stations that have slipped below three dollars, it's no mistake that sentiment. Consumer sentiment is increasing on the fact that this one good that many Americans know the price of, whether they need it or not, has
come down. And I think that plays into the psyche of consumers that are feeling a little bit more upbeat because they've seen energy prices crumbling.
So as energy prices crumble, are we going to see airplane tickets come.
Down to well? I certainly think that that's a dynamic that is also that is airline prices are also set more so on supply and demand of available seats, and I do think that there's a little bit of a loosening happening there as well, as a lot of Americans got out to travel internationally this summer, the State Department saying that passport delays are now negligible, They're back to normal, and I think that spells that there may be a
brief lull in consumer demand to travel overseas, especially in the winter months. Airlines are now feeling more pressure to lower fares, not only because jet fuel, but because broadly speaking, more Americans have kind of got that travel bug out of their system, and we are seeing a seasonal uptick for the holidays. But beyond that, airlines may find capacity a little bit looser in the year ahead, especially as many of them add planes to their fleets.
That would be good to see now is a two dollars ninety nine cent a gallon gas price likely to become the national average sometime on the horizon this year next year.
Well, you know, I'm very hopeful that we will have a window of opportunity that could see a return potentially of sub three dollars prices, maybe in January February, but it's really going to be contingent on the pace of the economy. If the Fed cantinues to hint that interest rate cuts are going to be happening. I think there's going to be a broad recovery in the economy, potentially with reduced borrowing costs, and that would probably negate the
possibility of a sub three dollars average. So if we're to see a sub three dollars average, a two ninety nine average, I think the window of opportunity would be January and February, and then that window basically closes for the spring and summer, and it may reopen next fall.
And just about a minute left here, Patrick, do you see a lot of travel or a lot of Americans going to hit the road this holiday season?
We certainly do, not only air travel because of how open up that has become, but certainly cars offer more flexibility than air travel does, and consumers being greeted in many many states, I mean we were at thirty one states with sub three dollars prices. I think many consumers are getting back into the mode of transit of using their cars simply it offers supreme flexibility, It avoids the headaches of the airport, especially at the holidays when airports
tend to be very busy. So Americans Devlin are flocking back to the roads.
Thanks so much. Patrick. That's Patrick d'han, head of petroleum analysis at gas Buddy.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
What's your choice for the top political stories of twenty twenty three? Of course, there's the former president being indicted four times on ninety one felony counts, but still leading his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination. There's the George Santos saga that was fodder for late night comedians all year. And remember the chaos as Republicans took control of the House, taking four days to elect Speaker Kevin McCarthy and then ousting him after only ten months. There is so much
more as well. I've been talking with Genie Shane's Zo Bloomberg Politics contributor and Lisa Camuso Miller, former R and C communications director and host of the Friday Reporter podcast. So Lisa, you go first. What is your favorite political story of twenty twenty three?
Oh, June it has got to be the House of Representatives in the Republican Conference, no question. I mean, not only fifteen votes to get Kevin McCarthy in to be speaker, but then a full three weeks to get a new speaker after they asked it him. And that alone is the chaos that has just ensued on so many different levels and so different ways. It's held up funding for Ukraine, it's held up our support for Israel, It's held up so many different things, and I think it's just going
to continue into twenty twenty four. So in my opinion, that has to be the biggest political story of the year.
Ginny, do you agree or do you want to pick another one?
Oh, there's so many, And of course I agree with Lisa. And by the way, June, I have to say, how lovely it is for the last show of the year to be on with you and Lisa, because all women power.
I can feel it.
That's right, you know, I agree with Lisa on that. But let me just add, you know another one. You know, I think you mentioned the indictments of Donald Trump. You know, as I think back to this year will go earlier than this the idea that the leading presidential candidate would be subject to over ninety counts against him, and yet with every single count, as we've talked about so much, he only grows in the polls, his fundraising only goes up.
You know.
It is just quite an astounding thing. So that's to me an enormous story of the year. And of course, you know, you look overseas, have to say October seventh, and the horror of that event and what has followed. You know, many of us in the Biden administration in particular, thought that things were calming down a bit, moving forward, getting more positive. In the Middle East, absolutely upended. So there's an awful lot to choose from. But those are two that I would just add on the table.
Yeah, and you know, some of these just keep oncoming. And I'm thinking of the revelations about the lavish trips and other freebies that Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas got from Republican mega donors. And you know, now there are calls for him to recuse himself in any upcoming case involving former President Trump. Do you think that would happen, Lisa.
I mean, you know, June in a previous five years before, maybe yes, The answer is yes, but now it's just so hard to know, right because so much of what we have known to be the facts and the tenets of the US federal government system have changed in so many different ways. And to me, it's just another it's just another layer onto ninety one counts ninety one the four indictments, and ninety one counts for the former press.
But yet still he may get the nominee a nomination, and he's still very well is in contention to be the next president of the United States. So as much as I would say yes, this definitely is something that is a disqualifier and ought to be something that we look very closely at in their Supreme court system, I wish I could say yes, But the answer is I just don't know.
And now I'm going to bring in our board op Sebastian, who has come up with a different story, and that is the return of American Unions. Genie. That has to be on the list.
Sebastian so smart, so it should be.
On the list.
You know, we saw so many strikes this over the last year, everything from the actors and writers of course, to the UAW nurses and beyond, and you know, Sebastian. I want to also pick up on what he said, because Sean Faine, I mean, what an enormous and enormous powerhouse he turned out to be, and really I think changed the way many people think about the power of labor and really showed us a new way for labor
to go forward. And of course, you know, working with or you know, we're all living under a president who describes himself as labor's you know, biggest friend, Joe Biden, and the idea that we'd have a president go on the go to and join the strike, we'd have leading presidential candidate and Donald Trump go out there, go to
a non unionized shop. But labor certainly has made an enormous resurgence, and I do think as we think about going forward, we will continue to see because of in fact of the success the UAW had a lot of labor activity and efforts to try to unionize even further and across other industries.
Just a few minutes here, Lisa, which branch of government we've looked at at some political stories from all which will make the most news in twenty.
Wow, that's a big list and it's really hard to say, June, but the one thing I would say is that what the trend that we've been seeing in the US House of Representatives and really in the Congress is that they were hoping to get back to a regular order and get back to the traditional appropriations process, doing business the way we used to do it, which seems kind of silly now that we've talked about how things have all changed.
And so going into the new year, it was the one thing that got Kevin McCarthy aust did as the speaker. It looks as if we're going to have a year long cr at the beginning of the year, rather than going back to what folks had hoped that they would be able to do. So that's the way things are going to spread out over twenty four is a little
bit more of the same over and over again. And so I continue to look at the House and the Senate and say, that's going to set the tone because the election itself is a lot more of the same two candidates that nobody's very excited about. And so that alone, I think, is what's going to make things very contentious and very hostile over the course and the dialogue over the course of twenty four.
Of course, I'm going to vote for the judiciary because the Supreme Court is going to be making a lot of decisions having to do having an impact on the presidential election coming up, as well as decisions on abortion and the Second Amendment and all kinds of agency attacks. So that's my vote, naturally, but you could have guessed that. Thank you both so much. That's Jenny Schenzano, Bloomberg Politics contributor, and Lisa Camusso Miller, former R and C communications director
and host of the Friday Reporter podcast. Thank you both.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Well, we got inflation data today that came in cool and it was very important to what we're talking about. Here is the PCEE deflator, and for those who aren't familiar,
this is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. We actually saw disinflation on the monthly figure when it came to the headline down a tenth of a percent month on month, and ladies and gentlemen, no surprise, the White House decided it wanted to take a little bit of a victory lap on this, which is why I had the opportunity earlier today to speak with Lael Brainerd, who, of course as a former Federal Reserve official, but also now is
the director of the National Economic Council. And while she did tout the progress that has been made in inflation, I asked her, why isn't President Biden getting credit for it? And what can he do to fix that? This was some of her answer.
Americans may finally beginning to feel a little bit more confident, a little bit more secure. But the President is going to continue to push us to work to lower costs for American families and to keep these gains over the course of the next year and years.
All right, So let's add another perspective to this conversation. I'm pleased to say joining me now is Congressman Brad Sherman, the Democrat from California who also sits on the Financial Services Committee. So, Congressman, that makes your perspective valuable here. If you were to just look at the data today, it would suggest that perhaps Bidenomics is working, yet it isn't resonating with voters. So if that's the case, doesn't really matter at.
All, Well, certainly it matters for the economy. Winning elections is nice, but the country doing well is the reason we try to win elections. I think this will resonate. There's now in the polling a disconnect with how people feel they're doing economically personally and how they feel the country is doing. And I think that that discordance will narrow as we get to the election and people will say, hey, I'm doing all right, my cousin's got a job, and
maybe the entire economy is doing well. Certainly, results like this with the with negative inflation, I'll be it a little bit and only on the top line. But to see this downward pressure on prices is very good.
Well, in this downward pressure on prices have led many in financial markets and others to say, hey, the Fed is probably going to turn around and start cutting rates pretty soon. I know that often there is a dislike of weighing in on FED policy among elected representatives, but do you think that that would be a fair assumption that the FED is going to be in a position to cut rates in the not so distant future.
I think the market things that I'm not reluctant to chime in on this, but the effect of this blockade by the Huthi of the Red Sea, Let's see what that does not only to the goods that typically go through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, but also the price of shipping, because if you're going to need hundreds and hundreds of ships going around the Cape of Good Hope, that's just ships that aren't available, and shipping is a supply and demand. So we've got to look
at the geopolitical both the Middle East and Ukraine. But I'm hoping very much that we see a rate cut in March or April.
So you raised some of these jiga political concerns, like what we're seeing in the Red Sea that potentially is a risk not just in terms of energy flow and energy prices, but also supply chains. We all remember what happened during the pandemic, how those supply chains got snarled, and that's really a large part of what got us
into this inflationary mess in the first place. What is your degree of concern at this point that we could find ourselves and, if not as dramatic, at least a similar position.
Again, Oh, I don't think it'll be as dramatic as we saw two or three years ago. But you've got a lot of ships that are now going around the Cape of Good Hope, and so their journeys will take almost twice as long, and that means those ships aren't available to bid on the next bit of cargo, whether that cargo is going across the Pacific or or whatever route it might take. So I do think shipping costs
will go up. The hope is that this is just uplip and hopefully we can push the Iranians and their subsidiary, the Hoothies, out of this process of eating the Red Sea.
Well, Congressman, how exactly in your mind should that pushing happen? Because we have seen the US assembling a task force, which the Pentagon says now includes twenty nations trying to deter and defend essentially merchant vessels in the Red Sea that, though is not an offensive move, would you be encouraging the US to directly strike the Hoothies at this point.
We hope that we can deal with this just by playing defense, just by shooting down the drones and showing commercial shippers and insurers that this is safe. If that doesn't happen, we can either take violent action against the Houthis, or we can expose the Iranians to what they're exposing the world to. We could interrupt their shipping in any ocean of the world. So, whether it is a threat and attention of this or that ship bound for Ran, or whether it is kinetic action against the Houthie, if
that's necessary, I think we do it. As of now, we may be able to create safety just by shooting down drones and missiles that the Hoothy launched.
Well.
And of course, the consideration for the US here is the idea that they don't want to escalate this conflict any further, right, they don't want this to turn into a broader regional conflict beyond what is already happening between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. And that's where I'd like
to go with you, next Congressman, if we could. The UN Security Council just passed a resolution today, the US abstaining from this vote that calls for the continued flow of aid and increased flow of aid into the Gaza strip. It stopped short of demanding a ceasefire, and part of that was because of the US's concerns about that language, because that is not something the administration is pushing at this point. But there are growing calls for that. Sir As.
We see the death toll in Gaza rising substantially. Knowing especially that you are the co chair of the Israel Allies Conference or caucus in the House, what do you say for calls for Israel to stop the bombing.
The scenes we see in Gaza are horrendous. We want the killing to end. Israel has offered a week long cease fire if the terrorists will release forty hostages. That has been rejected by Hamas. We could have a permanent cease fire if they Hamas were to release all the hostages and either disarm themselves and turn themselves in, or I think we could arrange a departure for the Hamas fighters or at least their top leadership, to Iran or
a similar country. But as long as a mass insists upon a bargaining for a ceasefire, that is simply a chance for them to regroup and repeat their rampages of October seventh. Obviously nobody, no same person is going to accept that. But we could have a week long ceasefire. Israel has offered that, not for even all the hostages, but just for forty. Hamas knows that as long as the people of gas that die, a mass becomes more popular than worth, and they keep doing it.
Well to these ideas of negotiations around another potential agreement to release the hostages. Obviously, there was a temporary ceasefire earlier in the conflict that ended several weeks ago. There was a lot of conversation at that time for when that stopped, this idea that it would be much harder to reach a deal the second time around. How confident are you that another deal can be reached between Hamas and Israel and those parties that are helping negotiate this.
Amas realized that they had a public relations problem if they held children, women, and foreigners, chiefly agricultural workers from the Philippines and Thailand, and they have released those in return for many concessions. Obviously, the idea of kidnapping hostages and getting concessions shouldn't please anybody, but they got the concessions and they released. When it comes to male hostages, even the elderly you just saw, they recently released a
video of three men over the age of seventy. They are trying to extract to enormous prices for those hostages, and I don't think they'll be successful. But we can have a week long cease fire, which is a giant resupply opportunity to the people of Gaza if only release forty hostages, presumably they would be releasing elderly man.
Well, Congressman. Of course, when you return to Washington after this holiday break, the issue of funding for Israel, as well as funding for Ukraine and border security is one that is probably going to be front and center in addition to trying to fund the government and avoid a
partial shutdown on January nineteenth. When it comes to that fundament, that supplemental funding package, what border measures do you, as a Democrat in the House of Representative think are appropriate for the White House to compromise on here, Well.
I'm not going to negotiate on radio. I think the Biden opening position of having an orderly border with our border control properly funded our that's our position now. If we're going to actually change any of our policies that needs to be negotiated behind closed doors. But the idea that Republicans would fail to fund aid for Israel and aid to Ukraine in order to extract a concession of what is pretty much a domestic issue, that's not the Republican party I saw twenty years ago.
Okay, So how does all of this come together?
Then?
What is your degree of confidence that a supplemental is going to be able to be passed at all when even there's questions around them must pass must pass appropriation bills.
I have fifty to fifty confidence in our ability to fund the Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and border. One could imagine that if that guy was Steiny, that Israel would move forward separately, don't know, and that certainly isn't the administration's position.
Then we face possible shutdown of the US government, some of it on the nineteenth of January, some on February second, and the Republican bargaining position hasn't even been articulated, let alone, you know, and their reluctance to have another CR or a continuing resolution means we could very well face shutdowns to the US government at the beginning of the next year. This is the Republicans are so unreasonable they won't even articulate openly what their position is.
Well, twenty twenty four, Congressman is going to be a doozy for a multitude of reasons. But on this subject of twenty twenty four, of course, a lot of news was made this week when the Colorado State Supreme Court ruled that former President Trump should be off the ballot in that state, that he is ineligible to be president
on the grounds of the fourteenth Amendment. And I actually spoke with your colleague, a Democrat from California just like you, John Gary Mendi, about this earlier, and his take was interesting. I'd like to get your response to it. This is what he had to say.
I believe that Trump should be given the chance to be on the ballot, and I suspect the Supreme Court will so rule. Were that not to happen, I believe we'd have a very serious, very very serious political crisis in the United States if, in fact, Trump were not allowed to be on the presidential on the ballots in November.
Congressman Sherman, do you agree with that view?
I think we'd face major difficulty if he wasn't allowed to be on the ballot, although many many of my Republican friends would hope that the Republicans would nominate a different candidate, Nikki Haley or whomever. Section three of the fourteenth Amendment is a inadequately defined and highly dangerous provision. It not only deals with those who engage in insurrection, but also allows the exclusion of people who have given aid or comfort to our enemies, and that is not
well defined. I protested against the Vietnam War long ago. I've got colleagues who have voted against daide to Israel, and presumably someone could argue that either of those acts is making the enemies of the United States feel aided. So we need at some point to have statutes that
carefully define this section. Up until now obscure section of the fourteenth Amendment as to whether Trump engaged in insurrection or only aided insurrection, whether the presidency is covering and by six we're going to have to see the court set rule.
All right.
Congressman Bradshrman, the Democrat from California. Great to have you weigh in and join us today. Thank you so much. In a Happy New Year to you.
You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in alf Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Just today, after several days of delay, the United Nations Security Council was finally able to pass a resolution calling for increased aid into the Gaza Strip. This, of course, is the conflict between Israel and hamas continues. What this resolution did not do, however, is demand a cease fire between them, instead calling on parties to quote create the conditions for a sustained cessation of hostilities. This was a result of negotiations that had to take place over language
to avoid a US veto. The US ended up abstaining from this vote. And while that work is being done, the US also has its size on the Red Sea. As we've been reporting over the last several days, they've assembled a maritime task force. The Pentagon now says more than twenty nations are taking part as they try to make sure it is safe enough for commercial and merchant vessels to pass because of threat or actual hoothy attacks. This is where we want to begin with Ellen Wald.
She is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and also author of Saudi Inked. Ellen, thank you so much for joining. It's always great to see you and get your perspective. I want to first start with New York Times reporting today that Iran has been helping the Houthi militia in Yemen plan and carry out these attacks against commercial shipping vessels. This is according to newly declassified American intelligence that the Times is citing. Should this be a surprise.
You know, I don't think it is a surprise. It shouldn't become as a surprise.
You know.
It's pretty impressive the gains the Houthis have made, you know, over the past several years, but the kinds of things that they are doing need more advanced, uh, you know, weapons, guidance systems than it was really believed that they that they had. So I think what's interesting though, is that, you know, the United States is saying it's not just the weapons that that they're giving them, but that they that they are basically doing the planning and executing the
real time you know, guidance systems. And in response, of course that Ron says, uh, you know, we have no control over the actions of the Houthis and and whatnot. And so it's kind of a case of like, you know,
are they or are they not? And I think the the issue is really how much does the US want to press this because the more evidence that is a symbol that shows the direct involvement of Iran and these things, it pushes the US and potentially some other members of this coalition towards a more direct confrontation with Iran and all of the incredible risks and increases in insecurity risks that come with it, as opposed to if the US is well, you know, Iran is denying this, so we're
just going to deal with the issue and not the Iran issue. Of course, in that case you risk this conflict and these issues just stretching on.
Well, Ellen, hold that thought. Just bear with me a second, as we do have some breaking news just to bring our listeners and audience aware of coming from the Supreme Court. The Court refusing to put the Trump immunity clash on the fast track. The background to here of course, is this is related to the jack Smith Special Council case brought here in Washington, related to twenty twenty election interference. Jacksmith had asked for Sir Court to expedite a decision
around immunity for former President Trump. Trump and his legal team had asked the Court not to accelerate this, saying that Jacksmith's argument was essentially not valid, and it does seem this is how the Court has ruled, refusing to put that immunity clash on the fast track in this January sixth case, so they will not consider it immediately. And of course this effort on the part of Jacksmith was in part to make sure the trial could indeed start when he wants it to, which is an early
March of next year, so less than three months away. Again, the Supreme Court not fast tracking this Trump immunity clash, And we will return to that in just a few minutes. But Ellen to come back to you on what's happening not here domestically in Washington, but what's happening in terms
of geopolitics. This idea that you were just mentioning on the broadening of the conflict when we think about the notion, as we've been reporting over the last week or so, that the US is considering potentially going on offense here trying to strike the Huthies directly. A. Would that be an escalation, There's just no other way to phrase it. And and B would actually that also potentially be damaging to alliances in the Middle East, specifically with Saudi Arabia.
So yeah, it's it's a very complicated situation because you know, in some perspects, you do have there is already an American naval vessel in that area that has been basically defending these ships against attacks. The issue is that they haven't actually struck back, you know, to say any who's the you know, infrastructure on land where these attacks are coming from. They're just kind of trying to thwart them
in the water. But that there are all of these other issues because for a long time, Saudi Arabia and the UEI were essentially involved in a war against the Huthis, and they finally kind of reached this period like carefully cultivated quasi deton in that in that war, I mean, because several years ago the Huthis were shooting you know, rockets at Riod and at major airports in Saudi Arabia. So this I think is something that the Saudis really
don't want to we start. And so whatever the US is going to do, they're gonna have to tread very carefully because both they don't want to mess this up. But at the same time, getting Saudi and UAE buy in and consent is very critical because you know, the Saudis have you know, part of their border is is a very large part of the Red Sea. But then on the other hand, you've got this threat to international shipping. And this is an incredibly uh old, you know concept
that that we have. You know, that that shipping and international trade should be allowed to you know, to to to go unobstructed when you're in neutral waters. And so this is a concept and and a very old covenant of of you know, international law and practice, even before there was a United Nations and there was something that
we call international law. And if the United States and allies and this culture do nothing, then you risk, you know, abandoning this incredibly old precept that is so crucial to global trade. And I think that that could set a very very difficult.
Precedent well an energy trade specifically, I mean we're talking about the ability of petroleum products to flow in and out of the Middle East, Llen. So with that in mind, do you think the energy market right now is properly reflecting that risk? If you take a look at oil prices, which sure are a little higher, but not incredibly elevated, I think that they.
Are They're reflecting the risk at this moment, But I don't think that perhaps energy that energy prices in the future are are perhaps reflecting the fact that this could cause an escalation to a greater conflict. Right when the Gaza Israel issue got going, you know, back in October, we saw elevated oil prices because everyone was concerned that this was going to become this sort of whole, regional
wide conflagration. But you know, then there was a period where it seemed clear that, you know, no one else was going to get involved in this, this was going to be a Hamas Israel thing.
Well, well now we're.
Actually looking at this coming up again. So while that it seems like prices had kind of scaled back because they said, Okay, this is no longer a risk. Now we're looking at the fact that this could very well be a risk, and because this is something that is impacting trade and international shipping. That could be the thing that actually forces the United States to really get involved
and causes it to something larger. So I wouldn't be surprised. Well, hopefully traders and whatnot are watching this situation very carefully because this is a different This is a different issue. I think it's it's a whole different level than say an Israel Hamas conflict. This is something that has the potential to really become something much larger.
And finally, Ellen, we only have less than a minute left. But Saudi Arabia also very much cares about prices and they have been a leader in the OPEC plus cartel. Just quickly. Is it a big deal that and Goal left OPEC plus this week?
That's a really good question. It is a big deal, but it's also not such a big deal because it's something that you know, we kind of saw coming. You know, we've had other nations leave before Indonesia left, Cutter is left. I think that the issue is really this was not over that much production. We're talking like seventy thousand barrels a day of production.
But I do think it shows that.
Angola doesn't want to cut production at all, and they really need to pump more, and they're just not willing to even pretend to adhere to any kind of opek production quotas.
All right, ellen Wald of the Atlantic Council, It's always great to get your perspective. Thanks so much for joining us in Happy holidays.
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