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Welcome back to Balance of Power Live from Washington and New York today on Bloomberg TV and Radio and a red headline just crossing the Bloomberg Terminal. The US has told allies that Russia could deploy a nuclear weapon or a mock warhead into space as early as this year, so potentially in twenty twenty four. Quite the news to see, Joe, especially in light of remarks we got from Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier today where he denied US allegations that
he's planning to deploy a nuclear weapon in space. He says he's always been categor categorically against it and are now against the deployment of such things, and that the US is saying though, that they could do just that as early as this year.
Yeah, the always credible vatim er Putin weighing in, Kaylee, if this is true, a nuclear warhead in orbit, which is apparently what we're talking about, would violate the nineteen sixty seven Outer Space Treaty. That is so sixties that we called it the outer Space Treaty to which Russia is a signatory here, so this all goes back to
that statement. Remember with Mike Turner, the Chair of the Intelligence Committee last week, we had no idea what he was talking about, and you wonder if this would be public if he hadn't done that.
Well, that's an excellent question. Of course, the call from the Chair of the Intelligence Committee was for the White House to declassify information related to an unspecified threat. Of course, that forced the White House to get a little bit more specific about what the threat really is, and we know that this technology theoretically is supposed to be an anti satellite weapon, something that could be disruptive to all of the thousands of that are up there orbiting in
outer space. As you say, Joe, but really just fascinating to see this story unfold. We weren't talking about this at all until about a week ago. So for more on this story, now, let's bring in Larry Liebert. He is an editor on our National Security Team and is joining us on the phone, So Larry, realistically, we could be dealing with a pretty short timeline here. Even though President of Russia Vladimir Putin earlier today says he does not want to use a weapon like this.
Yeah, he said Russia is categorically against it. But you know he also has been saber rattling someone on his nuclear arsenal during the Ukraine War. So not everybody takes his assurance as encouraging. Our reporters, Albert Others, Deli, Jeffer Jacobs, Katrina Manson broke the story that the US has told the allies that Russia could deploy a nuclear weapon or a mock warhead which would at least cause as much confusion into space during this year. That's a timeline that
hasn't been reported before. And the question is that there's been much confusion about this. Is everybody, including present body, and they said, this isn't a new grow weapony in space that would be shot at people on Earth. It could though if it's up there, it's up there as soon as this year, as it's for real, and Russia chose to use it, could knock out satellite communications of all sorts. It would be catastrophe because there are so many satellites we all depend on, even GPS.
That's for sure. And Larry makes such a great point. We could be talking about a phony warhead for all we know. There's so much noise and misinformation coming out of Moscow that it's hard to really be specific about what we're talking about here, Kaylee. But Larry, this will be a big deal when the G seven Foreign ministers meet in Italy in April. This will be top of the agenda, won't it.
Oh well, I think so. I think it's going to hover over all the bates, including debates over Russia's attentions in the Ukraine War, the questions about the EU and US support for NATO, all of these things tied together. Of course. I would say some conservative Republicans in Congress has said perhaps that there's some scare mongering going on here to have yet another dimension of reasons not to trust and to act against Russia. But it's certainly going to be an issue at front of mine.
Well, Larry, you mentioned the question around the future of US support for Ukraine, whether or not Congress is actually going to pass billions of dollars in additional aid Joe and I were speaking with former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta just last week, who essentially told us, if Congress doesn't do that, President Biden needs to be looking at every possible option to continue aiding Ukraine. What real options are there. If it's not, that's Congress.
It's a real good quest. Then Understandably, our sources and those of other folks at the Pentagon and in the White House aren't eager to spell out any last gas or desperate measures they could take. You know, there's been talk of US allies in Europe paying to buy and then replace weapons from the US Arsenal, which would really put the US into a bigger position. They could continue to send certain weapons from US doock piles, but with no guarantee to replace them. It really raises questions about
the US readiness in Asia, for Taiwan and elsewhere. And so they really are holding firm and they even if they developed some workarounds, the situation is urgent from the perspective of Ukraine, and there's no way to do billions of dollars in weapons without Congress acting.
All right, Bloomberg's Larry Liebert, thank you so much for joining us on the breaking news that crossed this hour.
Yeah, we add another one here, and just the ridiculous number of stories that we're following only four days out from South Carolina. Arguably the top political story today, Kyley, But it's pretty hard to make those calls on a daily basis lately with so much noise. This is huge
though for Nicki Haley, it's huge for Donald Trump. And we have new numbers today, in fact, a couple of polls and one specifically we're looking at from Suffolk University, USA today, who were just absolutely great in Iowa and New Hampshire. That's of course polstered David Paleologos, who we want to talk to here. Donald Trump leading Nicki Haley in her home state by almost two to one. It's sixty three percent to thirty five percent. Remarkable numbers for
this stage of the campaign. And we do turn to David Paleologo. He is the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. David, this is shut down. Your poll agrees with a lot of other polls that we've seen in the last couple of weeks where Nikki Haley couldn't possibly win her home state.
How bad is this going to look?
Well, we never say impossible, as you know, we say highly improbable. But it doesn't look good at all. I mean, this is just awful for her inner home state, two term former governor of South Carolina, you know, worse than Iowa for her, worse than New Hampshire. And if these if this margin holds up, I mean there's some polls out there that have it twenty twenty two. Others have it in the thirties. I think the twenty eight number is pretty close. We'll see what happens on election day.
But again, and you know, South Carolina, like New Hampshire, anybody can vote, so obviously, Nicki Haley is winning big among Democrats provided they didn't vote the Democratic primary, and winning comfortably among dependents, but getting crushed among those who matter, which are registered voters who see themselves as Republicans.
Well, and then when you break down the demographics within that group of voters, David, it doesn't look like she's winning any of them. Former President Trump holds double digit advantages among men and women in every age group, among both high school graduates and those with a college degree, So there is no demographic within the Republican Party that Haley is winning outright, right.
Well, there's two that she's winning. I would say one, she's winning within the margin of era, but there are two. One is those people are political ideology moderate to liberal. She's winning a by about twenty points fifty nine thirty eight among that particular group. And also she's winning comfortably by more than that among people who say that the future of American democracy is the top issue. Now, future American democracy was not number win issue, was the number
three issue. So that doesn't get her very far as the number three the issue. And Trump was winning by over fifty points among people who said immigration was the most important issue, that was the top issue. And secondly, he was winning by almost thirty five points among second most important issue, which is the economy. So very little wiggle room, if you will. She needs a massive influx of moderates, liberals Democrats to storm the polls on Saturday.
But again, from what we can see in terms of who made it through the screen about being either a very likely voter on Saturday or somebody who had already voted, you know, PROMP is poised for a big win.
David Nikki Haley delivered a state of the race speech today in Greenville, and she opened it by announcing that she was not dropping out, and which would really give you a sense of where we are. But she said more than that. Listened to Nikki Haley from earlier today.
Of course, many of the same politicians who now publicly embrace Trump privately dread him. They know what a disaster he's been and will continue to be for our party. They're just too afraid to say it out loud. Well, I'm not afraid to say the hard truth out loud.
Would have made a difference, David Paleologos if she said the hard truth's out loud earlier and is she arguably doing damage to her brand now knowing that she needs to convince Trump voters if she's going to get anywhere.
You know, I don't usually do a lot of commentary on races like this, but I really do agree with you. I don't understand it. I think if she had got out endorsed him today wholeheartedly, I think she could maybe make the case that she helped deliver a big win for Trump in her home state of South Carolina, in potentially setting herself up for a Bible twenty twenty eight
run or twenty thirty two run. But this just seems just so ill prepared and hopeless to me if you're not showing up in those early primaries and caucuses in any way, it's like my class. You have to show up in my class and participate to get points four points every class. The student doesn't show up those first four classes, they're already down sixteen points to the other students who have to. And so then how does that
student justify getting an A in the class? You know, no matter how much extra credit they do, no matter how well they ace these other metrics in my class. And there's no way that she's going to ace any states if she can't win her home state. I mean, Michigan comes three days later. You know you have got the primary and then the Michigan caucus because they you know, they have that split up, and you've got other races.
And on Super Tuesday, even in Massachusetts, I thought she had a chance in Massachusetts to potentially pull an upset, and she's double digit. She's down in Massachusetts even with sixty percent Independence and Tempest are Republicans.
Yeah, have a tough picture, but we always appreciate you joining us. David Pelielogus, Suffolk University Political Research Center Director, thank you for your time, and as he talks about attendance in his class, it also raises the turnout question, Joe, how many people are going to show up and actually cast a vote in the primary when his poll shows that more voters are more enthusiastic to cast a ballot for Trump.
I think I would have failed David's class. I think I would have gotten out to vote. Okayley, this is Bloomberg.
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Thirty, Pick your poll. They tell the same story. Today Emerson's out with numbers from the Hill, Suffolk is out with numbers. They ran with USA today, we saw Winthrop. We've been through a couple of these in South Carolina, Cayley. They all tell the same story.
Which is that Nicki Haley is going to lose, at least if the polls are correct, pretty badly to Donald Trump four days from now in the South Carolina primary. That said, Nicki Haley says the outcome doesn't matter. She's sticking around for the time being. And also, interestingly, Joe, as we hear her sharpening her criticism of Donald Trump, the front runner, as we have gotten further into this primary cycle, she also says that essentially right now, she's
just saying the quiet part loudly. Listen to some of what she said in her state of the race speech in South Carolina earlier today.
Of course, many of the same politicians who now publicly embraced Trump privately dread him. They know what a disaster he's been and will continue to be for our party. They're just too afraid to say it out loud. Well, I'm not afraid to say the hard truth out loud.
So joining us now for more on this here with me in our Washington, d C studio as Bloomberg National politics reporter Nancy Cook. So, Nancy, it's worth pointing out here that Nikki Haley hasn't essentially been saying this out loud for the entirety of this race. It's pretty new in fact, that she's saying some of these things about the former president. Is it too little, too late for her?
I mean kind of yes. I mean she really has decided to thank Traumond directly. Really just in the last month or so before that she was very cautious, and this fall we saw that she was very cautious. I think at this point she is just trying to set
up a contrast between her and the former president. And I think that, honestly, what we're seeing here is her playing a much longer game about you know, if there is some sort of healthcare or the former presidents legal troubles catch up with him, she will be the alternative. But we are really expecting him at this point to clinch the nomination, probably by the third week of March.
Hey, Nancy, it's good to see you. I wonder when we talk about the psychological impact, if it's just impossible to know what that will be following South Carolina this weekend, because, as we've been discussing for days and weeks now, the conventional wisdom is Nicki Haley just kind of hangs out for the spring in summer and waits to see if
something goes wrong with the Trump campaign. But what about twenty twenty eight, What about her future career if it doesn't work out in this campaign, there's a loss that bad, A thirty point loss in your home state keep you from doing other things in the future based on the message that you're sending the embarrassment that comes with it.
Not at all. I think that that will be a big part of what she'll do. I think that she will, you know, is really positioning herself to run in twenty twenty eight. She will have been the last Republican standing against Donald Trump. And you have to remember that if Trump loses to Biden in the general election, which is months away, Nikki Hilly can say I told you so.
You know, she's also in her early fifties. She's so much younger than Trump and Biden, and I think that she has like a long political life left in her. So I think part of this is also positioning for twenty twenty eight. I think Governor Ronda Santas of Florida is doing the same thing. He just announced he's going to be in South Carolina tomorrow. So I think that, you know, everybody who dropped out is really trying to say, hey, hold on, I'll be there in four years.
Well, of course, Fernicki Haley as well. We have to consider that she does have the resources to keep this up for a while. She's continued to pull in money from donors. When she was speaking in South Carolina earlier, I was watching some of her remarks, it was notable she actually got choked up when talking about her husband, Michael,
who is currently deployed to Africa, her second deployment. She says she was speaking about how hard it is on them as a military family when Donald Trump has effectively questioned where her husband is at times. She says it's disrespectful of military members and military families. Given South Carolina is a pretty military heavy state. Are we expecting that to have an impact come primary day?
I think it could have an impact. I mean just with people who don't already like Trump. I think Trump is going to hold on to that thirty percent base of the Republican Party who really likes him no matter what. But I think that there is an opportunity for Nikki Haley to pick off voters who are college educated in
some of these wealthier areas of South Carolina. And so that's what I will be looking for, not just like what is the margin between those two with the primary, but also what types of voters does she end up appealing to in South Carolina.
Hey, Nancy, We're going to talk later on this hour with our political panel about Joe Biden's fundraising prowess. He's on his way to a week on the West coast raising money in California, but ahead of the deadline, he's reporting forty two million dollars for the campaign and the DNC. He ends January with one hundred and thirty million dollars in the bank for his re election effort. Joe Biden is winning the fundraising wars here is he not?
He is?
And I talked to a bunch of donors after that Special Council report that raised questions about his age, and a bunch of Democratic donors said, look, you know, we think that he has been a good president and as long as Trump is on the ticket, we will keep funding Biden. It's not so much like a gift to Biden or a full vote of confidence in himself as it is a donation to just an anti Trump coalition.
These Democratic donors do not want Trump to be president again, and they were they are willing to keep, you know, funding Biden's bid because they're just freaked out by that. And we've seen he's had a lot of success with fundraising in New York, on the West Coast, in Florida. You know, fundraising has not been a problem for the Biden campaign.
Well, that's for sure, and we're going to hear about the others coming up in short order, whether it's the Trump campaign or the party's Nancy Cook. Great to see you, great reporting as always, Bloomberg Senior national political correspondent. Find Nancy on the terminal and at Bloomberg dot com. Kayleie, This of course is a huge story going into South Carolina. But immediately after that, we're going to turn our focus
to Super Tuesday. And here in Washington, there's still a conversation about geopolitics, about funding our allies abroad that has yet to be resolved. In fact, it's very much up in the air after lawmakers went home for two weeks without crafting a budget, without passing aid for Ukraine, Israel, or Taiwan.
Yeah.
Absolutely, and Joe, that is something that the current incumbent President, Joe Biden, is keenly aware of. He's putting a lot of pressure on Congress in recent days, especially in light of the developments of recent days, to pass Ukraine ad that aid that he essentially says is badly needed. Just take a listen to the president over the weekend.
Mistake not respond. Look the way they're walking away from the thread of.
Russia, the way they're walking away from NATO, the way they're walking away from being our operatation.
He the discs of shocking.
I've been for a while, I've.
Never seen any like this president as he was leaving the White House, as Kayleie mentioned over the weekend, we've heard this line from him a couple of times, calling it bizarre that they would leave town. Remember his news conference at the end of last week. We had the voice now of Jim Gilmour, the former governor of Virginia is with us, former ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and former chair of the r NC. Governor,
it's great to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg. What's going to happen when lawmakers come back to town and have already spent a couple of weeks at home hearing from voters on this watching headlines from Ukraine as areas fall to the Russians. Will there be a different feel in the air.
Well, I don't know, but I know there should be.
I think it's apt the urgent that the Ukraine financing pass. All the false narratives that have been out there about how we have to look out to our border and we can't look after the Ukrainian border, these are all false messages. Some of them are being created by the Russians in order to try to work on the minds of the American people and to destroy our resolve. It's absolutely essential that this Ukrainian support passed. And I might say to you, Joe, that this is a failure of
national leadership everywhere. We're not seeing the national leadership anywhere to completely explain to the American people the truth and how absolutely vital this war in Ukraine is to the safety of the United States of America. We're not seeing it out of the Congress, we're not seeing it out of the Senate, we're not seeing it out.
Of the Presidency. This has to happen.
It has to happen, and there has to be an explanation as to why. And you have to explose some of these false rumors and myths that are being put out there to try to destroy American resolveleadership.
Well, you say that Russia maybe behind some of these rumors and myths, but are they not being propagated by certain Republicans, including the Republican front runner for the presidency, Donald Trump, who has the ear of Speaker Mike Johnson.
Well, I can say this, when I was the ambassador in Vienna on behalf of the United States in the Trump administration, Nobody in the Trump administration ever told me to.
Let up on the Russians. And I don't.
Foresee that when President Trump is reelected again that he's going to back away from NATO or back away from anybody else. I think American leadership was stronger then than it is now. But Kaylee, I want to repeat my message. We're seeing a failure of leadership everywhere by everybody. The American people are entitled to know the truth, and the truth is that this is vitally important to America's safety and national security for the future.
Well, let's get to what else should be done here, then. Governor Joe Biden has delivered a couple of speech is one of them in prime time from the Oval Office to speak to the dangers around the world, the risks that we face, and the need to help to fund our allies, whether it be in Ukraine, Israel, or Taiwan. We understand that there's a very different conversation that's been
having in the House of Representatives. We even heard Donald Trump say a couple of weekends ago that he would let Russia and his words, do whatever the hell it wants to our allies who don't meet spending goals in NATO, this does seem to be two different conversations.
Now, oh yeah, Look, I think that what the President Trump is doing is putting pressure on the NATO allies to step up to the plate. My report to you is the truth, though, which is they are stepping up to the plate, and largely because our President Trump's pressure when he was president, and I think these statements that he's making now are intended to do that. But the key point is that American leadership is necessary, and we do lead, and people look to us for leadership and
it has to happen. But right now I think we're not seeing the proper messaging out of Washington by anybody.
Well, and that messaging or lack thereof, certainly is noticed received by our allies. Of course, we saw the Munich Security Conference happening in recent days where a lot of American allies expressed concern about the direction of the conversation here. Domestically, what it could mean for the future of alliance, is the future of US participation and support for allies in Europe. What should they be thinking of the United States at this moment? Are there concerns not founded in real threat?
Listen, the real threat is certainly there. This is a Russian fascist dictatorship that is committing aggression. I have to talk about navioliny for a second. This is a murder putent principal leader. Whether he was frozen to death in the Arctic gradually and starved to death or submitted to illness, or whether he was directly accelerated in a murder through some type of activity up there in that remote place.
That's an important message to the people of Russia, to the people of Europe, and it ought to be an important message to the people of the United States that this is what's in our future if we don't step up and do something right now.
But you're right about this.
The messaging I think needs to be strong are European allies.
I worked with him every day while I was in the on behalf of the United States.
Their best interest for their citizens all across Europe is to follow American leadership. If American leadership falters, they will do the best they can for their citizens, just like we do for our citizens. And that means that there's risk up the road that they'll compromise.
We can't allow that to happen.
Russia cannot succeed in this attempted conquest and the subject and subjugation of Ukraine trying to reassemble the Russian Empire. If he does that, he threatens Europe and eventually that ret in the United States of America.
Would it have helped Governor if Donald Trump, the former president, in his statement about the death of Alexi Navalny, had in fact condemned Vladimir Putin, It didn't even mention his name.
Well, I'm certainly doing it.
I mean, I think that right now that all of our national leadership needs to be as vigorous and strong on this as possible and explode some of these myths. Listen, we have a right to know that the money the taxpayers sent to Ukraine is being properly spent, and that means that that information has to be shared. Do z Lenski administration has to be it pains to get that information to the American taxpayer if he wants the taxpayer money. It means that the national leadership from the White House
has got to be explicit about addressing these issues. You have to explain that the American border is important, but it's really a different issue from Russian aggression in Europe.
America is a great power.
We can do all of these things appropriately, but it requires leadership both internationally.
And you're in the United States, all.
Right, Ambassador Gilmore, thank you so much for joining us. Always great to get your insight. Is the former United States Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation and Europe, and of course also former governor of Virginia and former RNC chair. Quite a moment we are in as we hear the ambassador talking of grave geopolitical risk, and yet Congress it's unclear whether or not they want to do
anything about it. We'll have more coming up for you next on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and radio.
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Welcome to the Tuesday Feels Like Monday edition of Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew at World Headquarters in New York, Kayley Lines at Bloomberg's Washington Bureau. Political news is funny, Kayley, It's not always what the headline says. We spent the whole weekend talking about Donald Trump's four hundred dollars gold sneakers, and he knows how to plant this story right. I don't know if you've got your pre order, and it was it was Joe Biden's fundraising though. That was the real news.
Yeah, because he's done a lot of it. In the month of January. Joe forty two million dollars has been pulled in for his reelection campaign and the Democratic Party more broadly.
So.
He ended January with one hundred and thirty million dollars in the war chest. That's pretty significant, actually a record amount for a Democratic candidate at this point in the calendar.
That's for sure. It's one of the reasons why of the primary reason why he's in California this week as well, because Joe Biden is in fund raising mode and Kaylee, we spent all last week talking about how much money Donald Trump is spending on attorneys. He, for what it's worth, has not put up his numbers yet. When we get to the deadline, we'll see them. But he's likely to run out of cash because of all that the court cases by July, as Joe Biden continues to put checks
in the bank. It's a pretty interesting phenomenon.
Indeed, as we're thinking that Trump is going to have to pay out more than four hundred and million dollars in damages to Egene Carroll and then the state of New York for those two civil trials, and then you have to pay all your attorneys. And he spent more than fifty million dollars in campaign funds doing that in twenty twenty three. So definitely a difficult financial picture for the former president. For the incumbent president, though maybe a
better one. The question is can you put all that money to use to actually benefit in a race where a lot of polls show you behind Donald Trump at this point. So on that note, let's bring in Bloomberg Politics contributor Genie Shanzeno alongside Lisa Kumuso Miller, former RNC communications director and of course host of the Friday Reporter podcast. So Genie, first to you, what's all the money worth
if it's not deployed appropriately? Is the Biden campaign doing a good enough job right now of spending it?
Yeah, you know they have time, They're going to be spending it. What they're doing right now is this fundraising machine. Essentially, it has been a jugger, not, as you said, the most we've seen out of a Democratic candidate at this point. This is the biggest hall since April of last year. And there's one number in particular that stands out. Ninety seven percent of these donations were under two hundred dollars. That is very, very impressive for the campaign. These are
not just all big time big funders. These are small money donations. And also to add to that, the fact that they raised in the three days after Iowa a million dollars per day. That speaks to where this money
is coming from. And Nancy Cook said it earlier. A lot of this is coming not necessarily because people are so excited about Joe Biden, although they may get there as we move forward, but because of Donald Trump looking like he is going to be the nominee of the Republican Party and a real intent the part of people funding the Democrats to stop that. And so they are out there doing the hard work now of raising the money and then to your point, they're gonna have to spend it wisely.
Well, we promise context here at Bloomberg, and it's worth throwing some on this particular story here, just to reset what Kayley mentioned, forty two million dollars in January for the Biden campaign and the DNC. That means one hundred and thirty million in the bank. Now, that actually still trails what Donald Trump and the RNC had in the
bank in twenty twenty, not so much this time. The RNC started the year with over eight million dollars cash on hand, and Donald Trump hasn't put up his numbers yet. Here he was coming in with thirty three million dollars. They will have their totals up for January. Context, Lisa formerly of the RNC, You understand how this works. What are the conversations like inside the halls and the offices at the Republican National Committee knowing how much money is going to Donald Trump's lawyers.
Well, you know, Joe, it's really hard to compare. It's like comparing apples to oranges, because when I was at the RNC, there was a bit of a different structure in the way that this the financing was happening, right, And there are so many other third party groups that are involved in all of this that it's hard to really sort of compare the two. But what I will say is that the party itself is on the verge
of transition. There's no question about it. Anytime a nominee is getting ready to come into their own and be at least the incumbent or the one that is going to be the candidate that will run for the platform, it's time for a change. And I suspect that is what's going to happen at the RNC, And sometimes breathing new life into the RNC, into the political parties does reignite sort of the interest and the fundraising piece of that.
The one segment that's sort of different that we really can't even sort of factor in because it's also brand new, is all of these extra expenses, the legal expenses to your point, So I think what we're going to have to watch is sort of how that all unfolds. The one thing I'll say, though, is that what's different about these rulings and what's different about Donald Trump is that he is someone that knows how to leverage one item over another.
Right.
He is someone who has very often figured out how the system works, and he has used it to his advantage to raise more money on the business side.
So I suspect he's looking.
For all of those angles on political side as well. The one thing I'll say for certain is that this is going to be the most expensive presidential race we will see in our history in our lifetime. They're going to set records this year, and so that's sort of indicative of what we're seeing on the Democrat side. The most money in a war chest for an incumbent president on the Democrat side, and I suspect that the money is going to continue to pour in for Donald Trump
as well. And obviously he's using resources and different means like selling four hundred dollars shoes to make that happen.
Yeah, that's absolutely true. But Lisa, to your point of about how there are all of these other factors, like his legal fees at play.
Now.
I wonder if ultimately everything turns out fine for the financing of Donald Trump and his presidential bid, what suffers, perhaps is every Republican down the ballot who isn't going to be able to tap into RNC resources at a time when the Democratic Party may have more resources to go around. Is that really where we're going to see the impact here, not at the presidential level, Lisa, but for everybody else who's trying to get a piece in.
The buy ale.
It's hard to know because there are other fundraising operations within the political structure, right There's the National Republican Congressional Committee,
There's the Senate Committee. There are lots of other political arms that are also doing some tremendous fundraising, and that fundraising is sort of operated not necessarily from the top of the ticket, but from the top of the US Senate, so through Mitch McConnell and his political operation, as well as Mike Johnson, who is also raking in millions and
millions of dollars. There's been a lot of support for him over the course of the last few weeks, since he started just six weeks ago, so some of that, I think as much as there may be impact down ballot, I think more often than that, what we will end up seeing is that people will be making choices about where they're sending their money, whether it's to the RNC or if it's to the other political operations within the structure of the political parties.
Genie, we need to talk about Michigan. This is not being widely reported because Joe Biden's going to win the primary. It's a week from today. By the way, we're obsessing over South Carolina. Michigan's a week from today, and there's a movement to get Democrats to vote uncommitted next week. This is a movement that has the backing of Congresswoman Rashida Talib. There's a separate abandoned Biden campaign launched by
Muslim voters who formally backed Joe Biden. Without the Arab American Muslim American vote, he would have lost Michigan in twenty twenty, Genie, And because of what's happening right now in Gaza, he could lose them this time around what happens in Michigan next week.
Yeah, it's got to be a big concern to the campaign. I mean the idea that you have a Democrat in Rashida to Lee urging Democrats in her home state to vote uncommitted against an incumbent president. You know, that is very unusual, but I think it speaks to your point about what a big issue this war with Moss and Israel is domestically. I mean, normally we would say foreign policy issues don't play big in presidential campaigns. They usually don't.
This is something different, particularly on the Democratic side. We're gonna have to wait and see what happens in Michigan. There is a large population of Jewish Americans as well in Michigan. But the impact is real because of course Joe Biden won that very narrowly last time around, and
he needs to get out the vote. I would also watch out for people, particularly in the African American community, who who have been empathetic to what's happening in Gaza and who are looking in particular at people like RFK Junior, who is out there talking about issues they care about, like the environment. And so you couple those together and
this is a big challenge for Joe Biden. And you know he'll win Michigan, but the question is if we see a drop in people turning out, that is a warning sign for Democrats.
Great panel, Great conversation with Genie Shanzano and Lisa Cabuso Miller. Great to have you both of you, both of you with us. I should say, Kaylee, forgive me for interrupting here when we look back to twenty twenty just for the context on Bloomberg here, Joe Biden won by one hundred and fifty five thousand votes, including the vast majority of the states two hundred thousand Muslim voters. That's the number, two hundred thousand.
Yeah, it's a very small number when you think about the electorate as a whole, Joe, and it just goes to show you how close these swing states are and how issues are. This really could matter and interesting to have this conversation on a day in which we've just seen the United States vetoing a UN Security Council resolution
to call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Yes, it's because the US is trying to continue to pursue a diplomatic answer exchange of hostages held by a hamas for a sea spire of some period of time, which obviously hasn't happened yet, but optimi optically, at least for the president, could be pretty difficult.
The news today, Kaylee Lines my partner in Washington. I'm Joe Matthew at least for this week. At World Headquarters in New York.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then roud Oto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. It's not Monday.
It just feels like one. Welcome to Tuesday in new numbers. With four days to go now to the South Carolina primary. It seems so far away. So much seemed possible when we were in Iowa and New Hampshire. Not so much now as I read on the terminal. Nikki Haley vowing to stay in the Republican presidential race against Donald Trump regardless of the outcome of Saturday's contest. And that's a good thing, because she's looking at the same numbers we
are not good today. Suffolk University, USA today shows those among those at least very likely to vote in the Republican primary in South Carolina, Donald Trump leads Nicky Haley by close to two to one, sixty three percent to thirty five percent. Emerson is also out with a poll today showing not quite as wide a gap, but a slam dunk for Donald Trump. And that's where we start our conversation with Gregory Cordy. He's with us from Bloomberg's
Washington Bureau. Of course, Bloomberg Politics reporter Gregory. We've seen remarkable consistency in the numbers, whether it was Winthrop or Suffolk or Emerson. Coming out of South Carolina. Nikki Haley is gonna lose badly this weekend, is what they're telling us, Right.
Yeah, if you want to look at the bright side for her, she is gaining ground on Trump. Back when just half the New Hampshire primary she was trailing by thirty points on average. Now if you average out those poles that you talked about just now, she's trailing by twenty five points. But the problem is the primaries in four days, and at this rate, she will overtake Trump sometime far in the future when it won't matter anymore.
And so, yeah, these are discouraging poll numbers for her, but she's pledging to soldier on at least through Super Tuesday, when frankly, the polls and the party rules are even more foreboding for her, because then you get into winner take all states, where all Trump needs to do is when a bare majority and gets all the delegates, and that can those can stack up pretty quickly, and at this rate, he could clinch the nomination by early to middle of next month.
Well, that's certainly what the Trump camp thinks, Gregory. As Nicky Haley delivers what is being referred to as a state of the race speech today in Greenville, she's at it right now. Donald Trump's senior advisor on the campaign, Chris la Sevita, says, this is done in the next four weeks, not who's ahead, who's trailing, like done presumptive.
We have the delegates. This is the math here. Even if Haley reprises her New Hampshire performance in every state voting over the next four weeks, the campaign has crunched numbers to show that Donald Trump would still cross twelve to fifteen twelve hundred and fifteen delegates required on March nineteenth, Gregory, that's the day Florida Illinois, Ohio have winner take all primaries.
Could Nicky Haley, if this really is a campaign in waiting for something to go wrong, continue through all of this, just hang in there.
Yeah, she really is waiting for some big game changing moment, but it's hard to see where that will come from. Of course, former President Trump is facing four different criminal indictments, but the trials for those won't start until late next month at the earliest, and even those don't seem to have much of a sway on Republican voters, who tend to rally around him every time he faces these these
legal challenges. There's just such a big chasm here with where the Republican base is now behind Trump and where you know, those sort of moderate you know, those more moderate liberal Republicans. We might call them traditional Republicans, main street Republicans, country club Republicans, whatever you want to call them.
They still exist in the Republican Party. They still would love to find a Republican candidate that they like, certainly more than Donald Trump and certainly more than Joe Biden. But there's just not enough of them to carve out space for Nicki Haley at this point.
Like we do have an ear Gregory on her speech right now. She did player around a little bit when she came out there, but not dropping out as some suggested. She did acknowledge that right off the top. If you have to tell people you're not dropping out in a campaign speech, where does that say? What does that say about your campaign?
Now?
The problem is when you're behind at this stage of the race, you have to tell people every day you're not dropping out, because the one day that you tell people you don't tell people that, people assume you're gonna drop out, and then that's where the donor money dries up, and that's where things really start to go south. So, yeah, she she has to come out and say that she's in this for at least the medium term, and that includes South Carolina obviously on Saturday, but then also Super
Tuesday early next month. And in between we have Michigan where her campaign just put in seventy one thousand dollars in the Detroit market and television advertising. That's not a whole lot, but it is laying a marker to say, look, clearly, I'm looking beyond South Carolina. And so she has to do those kinds of things to at least project that this is not a campaign that's going to drop out.
Because remember that the yardstick that she set for herself after New Hampshire, she said, you know, I came in a third in Iowa, I came in second in New Hampshire, and all I need to do is improve on my performance from state to state. She's now moving those goalposts to say that she's in it no matter what after South Carolina. That's not what she said right after to New Hampshire. She needed to improve on New Hampshire to stay in it. She's not necessarily saying that in her
speech in Greenville as we're watching today. Yeah, that's for sure.
You wonder what a Tim Scott endorsement might have meant at this stage, if she was able to wrap that up. Of course, Donald Trump got it in New Hampshire. Gregory, it's good to see you, and we thank you. He'll be of course a part of our coverage here of South Carolina primary. It's only four days away. It's not looking good for Nicki Haley. But as we keep hearing, that just may not matter when it comes to her plans staying in the race. Enter Goldman's sacks. It's the
economy stupid. You want to advance to the general election and get a sense of what voters will be basing their decisions on. Check this report February fifth. Reading about this today a fascinating read on Bloomberg. Wouldn't know about it if it weren't on the terminal and at bloomberg dot com. This is new research that explores where the economy will be when we vote in who that might
break for. And it finds that President Biden's economy will be right around the dividing line that separates winning re election campaigns from losing ones. And they've identified about a dozen areas here in which they can plant their flag and essentially make a prediction. This is fascinating stuff, and we knew there was one man to talk to about it.
Danny Blanchflower is with us, the economist of course at Dartmouth College, recipient of the Commander of the Order of the British Empire in he put the fishing pole down to talk to us for a couple of moments to day. Unbalanced the power, mister Blanchflower, It's great to see you either. Could anyone in their right mind, could anyone in their right mind predict where the economy is going to be in November.
Well, honestly, it's really really difficult. It certainly looks like a soft landing. It certainly looks like the economy is in pretty good shape now, much better shape than I expected with all the rate hikes. But in nine months time, who knows. But I don't think there's a prospect a very rapid deterioration between now and November. And that's something catastrophic which I don't foresee. But we're going to see unemployment rates below four percent or some something like that.
So if you look at all the forecasting, well it's the whole set of models done by Ray Fair and others. The state of the economy is an important indicator of what's coming. People's living standards are important, and people's perceptions are important. But in a sense, the contradiction is people's perceptions of how the economy is doing are not that great, but they keep on spending and the economy is very resilient. And so there's the puzzle.
Well, you just outline that perfectly, because it's confounding the administration and the Biden campaign. We look at the strength behind this jobs market, it's enough to confound the stock market certainly as well when you look at consumer spending, you mentioned it, and that's one of the areas that Goldman looked at. Here in what could change the picture before November as they point out savings from stimulus and lockdown, running out, where's the consumer six or nine months down the road?
Well, I mean, in some sense, the last two years has been about expecting the consumer to back off, especially in the light of what they say in terms of consumer confidence measures. Consumer confidence measures over the last twelve months or so have been absolutely predicting recession. They tell you stories about the recession that we saw in twenty oh eight. They've been system with that, but the consumer
has still kept going. So unless there's something really that changes everything, my assumption has to be now you know that I was wrong, that the data, I mean, all the things predicted something coming were wrong. But there are one or two little negatives on the horizon. Let me
give you one a couple of good predictions. Besides about whether we're in recession, A couple of good indicators is whether we have two successive months of negative growth in employment now either on what's called the establishment gap, which is non farm payrolls or on the household account, which is where you generate the unemployment rate. And we've seen very big declines over the last two months. Six hundred and eighty thousand the month before and thirty eight thirty
one thousand. That's a pretty darn good indicator to say you've gone into recession. But none of the other things that are sitting with it. So obviously you know there are one or two red flashing lights. But I think Goldman's right that it's hard to see the economy being really bad. Although the perception, I think is people see very well that potential Republican voters see the economy as
being much worse than the Democrat voters do. And obviously the question is what are the swing voters in the middle sea and how does it change by state. But I think this is a tough one to call. But we're I mean we're now we're now coming up to mark. We're not that far away. Economy is in less some terrible shock. It's than that you did in eight and in twenty twenty, and again I guess in twenty two
with the war and the inflation shock. But it's hard to see much changing where we are so, so I think pretty much keep on keeping on is likely where we are.
Interesting.
You look at another item, that's inflation, of course, a huge one for Joe Biden. In fact, it was referred to in the report as Biden's weakest link. Danny Blanchflower. What could change in Goldman Sachs's view is the war in the Middle that has already sent flight costs surging. That's another wild card.
Well, of course, I mean the ability to get goods through the Gulf, through Suez, through the through the canals and try and you know, continue to basically deliver products. That's important. I mean, we know what happened supplied chains he closed up during COVID, So that's an obvious potential. I mean, obviously what happens in Ukraine does that war, does it increase, does it slow?
What does it do?
So those are clearly potential shocks. But the inflation rate has come down and come down sharply, of the order of three percent. I think the best predictions, probably without you know and knowing exactly what's going to happen in the Middle East, is that those numbers will continue to drop. And that's what most people are forecasting. And even if there's tough things going on, even if the unploant rate rises, that predictions are something like four percent, and we haven't
talked about output, it doesn't appear that the recession. It does appear that you output may be slowing. But the light here it is you're still going to see positive output and published for the second and third quarters, which is what we'll see go into the recession. So in lots of senses, I mean, the truth is that whether people perceive it or not, the FED has actually generated a soft landing. The data are pretty damn good, and a president is entitled to say I generated masses of jobs.
The endpoint rate didn't lies. Wage growth is held up, and the economist continued to grow against all the pundits and all the predictions. So in some sense that's that's their fingers are crossed and hoping that some terrible shock doesn't come and people come around to understanding how good the economy is.
Boy, okay, we'll see about that, and time could be the difference maker. Danny Blanchflower in our remaining moment here, I wonder where you are though, on the you know, the the rate hike camp right now we had Larry Summer see on Bloomberg last week that a hike is possible. Everyone's obviously betting on cuts. This thing does not move in a straight line. Could you see inflation reversing between now and November?
No, I don't. I mean in some sense that I think this is Such comments by Larry Summers and others are quite interesting. Well, I was an interest rates setup. The job of an interest rates ceter is to think about what the inflation rate is going to be fifteen months to two years ahead, because monetary policy takes quite a time to have an effect. So even if inflation now perhaps bumps around, that doesn't suggest that you should raise rates. Everything suggests that inflation in the period ahead
is going to decline. I think it shows Larry Summer doesn't seem to understand how you do market policy. It's never been a monetary policy maker. And the answer is the best thing to think about is rate cuts around the agenda. The question is how soon would it be marched? Would it be May? And they will continue to come.
But you're not monetary policy makers. Really, I shouldn't be responding to one month at a time data that we should be thinking what's my view of eighteen months ahead and is the latest day they're.
Going to change my view about that?
So I don't be unless something fundamental change it. Anybody who thinks is a ray Hip Cummings in Gaga.
Last time he was on the program, he made clear to me and our listeners and viewers that he would fail me. I would fail his economics class. And I'm pretty sure today didn't change that. Danny Blanchflower, It's great to see you. Thank you for the insights as always, professor of Economics Dartmouth College. He can get back to the fishing now. I'm Joe Matthew at Bloomberg World Headquarters in New York. Glad you're with us, Holy Bloomberg. Thanks
for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.