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Welcome to the Thursday edition of Balance of Power. It's the first of August, and we come to air today on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite, and on YouTube with Remarkable News. Having spent the better part of this week covering the bitter edges of this presidential campaign, we can tell you today that Evan Gershkovich is free, so are many others as part of the biggest prisoner swap with Russia since the Cold War. We're going to be hearing
from President Biden in just a couple of moments. The State dining room is set and the Commander in Chief will be announcing something remarkable here that has come together over the balance of weeks. As Russia has freed Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich as well as jailed Kremlin critics in the largest prisoner exchange with the West in decades, we have a statement from Jake Sullivan, of course, national
Security advisor at the White House. Not since the Cold War, he says, has there been a similar number of individuals exchanged in this way. And there has never, so far as we know, been an exchange involving so many countries. Indeed, this took place. The swap on the tarmac in Ankara, Turkey, included two dozen people. Two dozen people, sixteen going to the West, eight being returned to Russia. Among them, as
I mentioned, Evan Gershkovitch, but also Paul Whalen. Gershkovich was arrested in March of last year on a reporting assignment in Russia. Paul Whelan, of course, was jailed in twenty eighteen, later convicted on spying charges that he denies. I have another name for you that you will know if you
watch this program or listen to Balance of Power. Also Komarshova, the journalist with dual Russian and US citizenship, who was convicted just last month under the Kremlin's wartime censorship laws, is going to be reunited with her family, if she has not been already. We brought you a conversation with her husband Pavel and her daughter Bibi on this program,
they will be back together. So as we wait to hear from Joe Biden, we want to get a behind the scenes view on what just transpired and is still happening now with Brett Brewin, the President of the Global Situation Room, a former diplomat who brings his national security expertise to us here on balance of power, Brett, when you consider the scale and the number of countries involved here, this is something that must have been on the works for some time.
How do you see it, Well, it's three dimensional diplomacy, the most complex kind of diplomacy because obviously you're working not only on a bilateral level, trying to figure out what Moscow is willing to give and what they want in exchange, But then you've got to work these other countries as well, and they have shockingly their own interests, their own concern and so it isn't an easy effort. And hats go off to Biden's team for being able to pull this off. That being said, Joe, and I
know you and I have talked about it before. I do have concerns that these kinds of exchanges also incentivize Putin and other autocratic rulers to take Americans captive and to hold them for these kinds of concessions.
That is something that I suspect Joe Biden will want to speak to Brett a very real concern, as are the concerns about some of the people that are going back to Russia here, including the dem Krasikhoff, who is serving a life's sentence in Germany for the killing in twenty nineteen of a Chechen separatist in a Berlin park where he was shot dead. At what costs are the Americans coming home?
Well?
And I think that is precisely the point, because Putin's going to be able to use this to great propaganda effect. He's going to be able to tell those who are fighting on the front lines in Ukraine, as well as others in the Russian military intelligence services, that we will, no matter what circumstances you fed yourself in, be able to bring you home. And that will embold it Russian
security forces to do even more. And I don't have to tell you their bold acts, whether it's in Germany or in the United Kingdom or in other parts of the world. Africa, as one recent example we've seen with Wagner Group have had a very destabilizing, a very dangerous effect on countries, and I think it's important when we take these acts. And let me be clear, we should do everything in our power to bring Americans who are unjustly detained overseas home. It's something that I did when
I was a diplomat serving overseas. But I do feel that this ought to be a moment where we reflect and we reset, because Putin is not done, and other autocratic leaders are watching and saying, I can get the US's attention, I can get concessions from the US if I take another American journalist captive.
Now that this group is coming home, Gershkevich Whalen Fromasheva, officials are talking about this as one of the few remaining areas of diplomatic cooperation between the United States and Russia. Do we need to raise the bar?
Well, Look, it is a bright spot in what otherwise is a pretty bleak time. I'm sure US Russian relations, and I think it's encouraging the sense that we can still have these difficult dialogues and ultimately get to some common ground. That being said, I think Putin again can leverage it and point to this deal and say the West the US is willing to negotiate in Ukraine. Just keep fighting, just keep pushing, and we will get a deal, because ultimately they will will bend, they will bow to
the public pressure on these issues. And I think it's also important in Joe. If I go back to Britney Grinder the WNBA stocks, you know, there was an unprecedented level of engagement from the President, the Secretary of State, the National Security Advisor that we had never seen in
US hostage negotiations. And what can discerned me about it was that if Putin believes, if some of these other autocratic leaders believe they can get the President's attention by taking someone who has a high public profile hostage, then we're going to see more of that. And so while it's wonderful that Britney Griner is playing alongside American teammates now at the Paris Olympics, I do worry for other US S FOURTS figures. I do worry for other American journalists.
And I think the caution everyone should take from this is to take much more caution when you're traveling to some of these countries.
A great conversation with a lot to think about today from Brett Bruin. Brett, thank you for being with us from the Global Situation Room here in the nation's capital, former diplomat with us live on balance of power. As we stand by to hear from Joe Biden. We will when he speaks. The State Dining Room will be the
venue and we'll see who joins the president. The optics here will be important today as we balance a couple of different stories here, including what's happening in Israel, bracing for revenge here, bracing for a retaliatory strike or event of some sort from Iran following what we described to you yesterday the twin killings, the obviously the operative from Hesbolah who was behind the strike in the Golan Heights, and then yesterday the political leader of Hamas in Tehran.
Pretty remarkable and bold move that has a lot of folks wondering exactly what is going to come next. The IDF is bracing and preparing for a couple of different scenarios here, and we wanted to talk about them with Michael Knights. A very delicate moment here in geopolitics. Jill and Jay Bernstein, Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Nieri's policy. Michael, it's great to have you back. I wonder what your expectations are in the next twenty four to forty eight.
Hours having me, I think the expectation is that as soon as the funeral of the senior Hamas figure is completed on Friday, from that point onwards, Israel is bracing foreign attack from as early as Saturday morning, and.
An attack that may come not just from Iran, but also from Lebanese as Bulla, from the Iraqi and Syrian militias tied to Iran, and from the hoofies in Yemen as well. So it could be a rerun of April's Iran Israel exchange of fire, while with a larger number of actors.
Well, this is obviously, as I mentioned, a delicate moment that could take on a couple of different forms here, and there have been questions about whether we'd see a repeat of what we saw in April. Clearly, none of the parties here from what we've heard, for at least and maybe you can disagree with some of the smart analysis that we've heard in this program that none of the parties involved want to see an escalation into a
regional conflict. Well that keep the tip for Tat under control after whatever is about to happen.
Everybody agrees that.
Actors would prefer not to see their home nations seriously destroyed, whether it's Lebanesas full of the Iranians or the Israelis. And yet you know, the players, including Mennyaho most recently, you know, take choices that do risk a broader war. And what Mennya, who you know, ultimately decided to authorize in the last thirty six hours, were you know, two of the highest profile strikes Israel has ever done extraordinarily successful.
But if you're on the edge of potentially closing a major hostage rescued deal which has been strongly encouraged by the Americans and broken by the Cutteries and the Egyptians, it's an odd thing to do to kill the Hamas leader, who, for all of his faults, was probably the one pushing
for that hostage hostage exchange deal the strongest. So it, you know, it shows you that people are willing to risk going to higher levels of escalation, and the Israelis in particular feel like they have what you would call
escalation dominance. In other words, they can kill his bullet commanders and Hamas commanders, and they're still going to ultimately get their way in the end, whether that's has Buller withdrawal from the border or hostage deel in which Hamas surrenders remaining Israeli and Western hostages.
We're spending some time with Michael Knights as we wait to hear from Joe Biden, and we do have a word on a two minute warning from the White House. President Biden will be speaking to the prisoner swap from the White House in just two minutes from now. Michael, is this once again a move to escalate in an effort to de escalate like we saw a few months ago.
Yes, it is.
And just to when you're talking about the prisoner swap, you're probably talking about the Russian US one, right, not the Israel Palestine one that we were just discussing.
Yes, but getting back to the matter of yes, but I'm asking you about Israel and Iran and the set up here optically in an effort to escalate to de escalate.
Got it.
Yeah, just clarifying for the for the listener.
So you know at the moment we're now going to move back into de escalation mode. But Iran probably you know, in a sense, will be allowed to do one strikeout at Israel because of the The Israelis will probably say that's fair game, and the Americans too. If that strike is too heavy, though, then a new sequence begins again. The Israelis will hit back, We'll decide, will work out how hard they hit back, and then the Iranians will hit back. So everybody, you know, we can either get
this one and done. Now where the Uranians hit back, it's not too bad, and everybody says okay, first fair or somebody hits too hard or is accidentally too successful in striking Israel and we go into a round a tipasa.
Michael. It's great to have you back, and we appreciate the time to have you on Bloomberg as always Michael Knights at the Washington Institute with our eyes on the situation in Israel and Iran and of course in Gaza, with so many things to unfold.
Still you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.
Thirty now confirmed by the President of the United States. If you were with us. A short time ago, we had live remarks from Joe Biden at the White House confirming the release of Evan Gershkovich, Paul Wheelan, also Kromashova, and Vladimir Kara MRSA as part of the biggest prisoner swap with Russia since the Cold War, involving two dozen
people and about a half dozen countries. The President acknowledging our allies and thanking them in Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Norway and Turkey, saying in the United States, we stand for freedom and liberty, for justice, not only for our own people, but for others as well. We assembled our panel today having thought we'd be talking about, as I said earlier, the bitter edges of the presidential campaign, and we will
get there. They carve out two hours for us each day to talk politics, but right now this moment with Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis, Bloomberg politics contributors, Genie of Course, political science professor at Iona and senior democracy fellow with the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress. Rick Davis, partner at Stone Court Capital. Great to see you both. This is a big moment for Joe Biden. Would it have happened if he had not dropped out of the race, You.
Know, I don't think we know, but we're still learning when this came about, which seems to be several months ago. But can I just say, what a moment for these families that were standing there, the little twelve year old girl turns thirteen tomorrow crying after the Presidency's Happy Birthday tour, the Wheelands talking about the fact the many years that they have suffered through this. I mean, what a moment for all of these families and of course the prisoners
who are coming home. In terms of Joe Biden, we are starting to learn that this has been in the works for.
A long time.
I suspect it would have still happened regardless of whether he dropped out or not, And in fact we heard and I think this has to be verified. But the very day he withdrew from the race, he was on the phone talking to allies around the world to make sure that his withdrawal and changes going on domestically here and elsewhere didn't impact this deal which was coming together. They were worried it might fall apart. So I suspect
it would have come through either way. But what a moment for Joe Biden, but more importantly for these families.
Well, absolutely, and you're right, Genie, to see all Sue's husband, Pavel, and their daughters BB and Miriam. We introduced our listeners and viewers, as you well know, to Pavel and BB here in our studios a couple of weeks ago. It was pretty hard to keep it together watching all of that. Rick A very poignant moment today for the administration but also for the country, isn't it.
Absolutely? This is the kind of thing we want governments to work together on. Obviously, it was a massive effort by the White House and other countries to formulate a strategy to be able to make this exchange. Lots of people involved. I'd like to have a shout out to Vladimir karram Moos's family. He was very close to John McCain and has participated in very many McCain Institute programs
over the years. In fact, was with us in Sedona, Arizona, just prior to returning to Russia to continue his work when he was arrest. So our prayers are answered. He's coming home and I know he'll be welcomed by his family and many of us who think the work he has done has been very important.
You know, of course, the campaign is injected into this. Before Joe Biden even leaves the room, reporters are asking questions. Genie in the last one. It's always the last question, isn't it. He decided to hang around and answer the last question. It was about Trump, who says he could have done this in a day. The President went back to the microphone. It's like, man, the communications staff's having
some tough memories here. What's he going to say? And it was a simple answer, why didn't he do it when he was in office? How did that play politically?
You know?
I think that is the response. We're already hearing from JD.
Vance that the reason this may have happened is because Russia feared Donald Trump coming into office. And of course he's so much stronger than the demos would be. And of course we know what Donald Trump will say. At least we can guess he's gonna say. You know, I as he said, he could get this done in a day Joe Biden gave away the farm. You know, this makes it the world more dangerous. Putin would have listened to me. We know, it'll say, But Joe Biden's response
was simple and accurate. You were in office from twenty seventeen to twenty twenty. He Whalen at least was taken in twenty eighteen or imprisoned in twenty eighteen. You had two years to do this and you didn't get it done. And you know, one thing to remember about all of this, it doesn't happen at this scope with seven plus countries involved without really strong allies. And that is an argument
I hope Democrats make on this. Donald Trump could not have made this agreement because it involved, for instance, the German Chancellor, with whom he doesn't have a strong relationship at this point, So how was he going to get this done. Joe Biden did it because of his strong relationships with allies. So it is a difference as we talk about, you know, sort of you know, removing ourselves potentially from NATO or making them pay for what's happening
in Ukraine. You know, all of these things. We hear jd Vance and Donald Trump saying that you know, we need to turn inward. When you turn inward, there's a cost, and that cost is things like this. We need allies to secure releases like this, and Joe Biden showed how that's done.
Well, what's your take on that, rick, Because Joe Biden did go out of his way to talk about the power of alliances. He said, anyone who question if allies matter, they do they matter, And he named Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Norway and Turkey. Went out of his way again after to thank the Chancellor all of that. I guess making the point that Genie was trying to there is that the takeaway today?
Yeah, I think it's a lot of it. It wasn't the us X alone in a vacuum. In fact, maybe one of the most important aspects of our soft power around the world is our convenient capability. There are very few countries who can assemble that group that, in many cases have a lot of existing animosity towards one another
and pull them together in an exercise like this. And so our goodwill around the world is a commodity that goes under noticed, and frankly, it's what protects us because the best deterrent we have from countries like North Korea, China, Russia being even more aggressive than they are is our friends and allies around the world we're willing to help us secure peace. So absolutely is part of the message. And I think that it's something that we don't probably
talk about enough, you know, in the United States. And let me just say too, in twenty seventeen, Vladimir Caramusa was poisoned by Vladimir Putin, and Donald Trump did nothing in retribution to Vladimir Putin for that act. So regardless of what he said today about how tough he could be on Vladim or Putin, he let him get away with these kinds of acts of aggression, attack, in some cases murder without much pushback at all.
Little reality check from Rick and Jeanie here. You know, Genie, I'll bring our listeners and viewers in on a little behind the scenes We were supposed to be talking about Donald Trump right now at the NABJ and you know, we're going to have time to get to that, because that too, was a remarkable moment on the campaign trail yesterday. But isn't it amazing that again, in this twelve minute
long news cycle that we're in. Our attention is moved by a major development, and in this case, something that transcends, I think, in importance to a lot of the bickering that we see and hear on the campaign trail. And I don't mean that in any specific reference to some of the things that have been said. But isn't it incredible how our attention comes away once again from Donald Trump and moves back to what's happening in the real world.
And in this case, you tell me it benefit to the Democrats.
You know, I think a benefit to Joe Biden's legacy. I think, obviously most importantly a benefit to these families, to the American public. But I also think there are real serious policy considerations for the United States government here, Republican Democrats, all of us alike, which is, there has been a rise in state hostage taking, state imprisonments. We've seen that in Israel. I mean not Israel. We've seen that in Russia. Rather, we've seen it in Iran. We've
seen it around the world. Those numbers are rising. We obviously still have prisoners captured by Hamas who are still there since October seventh, with very little understanding of their health, their well being, their status. So I do think the US government has to have a serious policy consideration here.
How do you move forward and ensure deals.
Like this don't come at the you know, endangering all of us by you know, making us all more vulnerable as we go around the world. Number one? And number two, how do you create a cost for these states who are taking innocent Americans around the world and holding them prisoner in exchange for something like this. That's a serious consideration for all of us, regardless of party.
Rick Does this help Democrats in their association with success and foreign policy broadly? Or is this a Joe Biden's story.
I think the rising tide carries all the boats. I think that this shows competency, which has been a foreign policy national security issue within the Biden administration. Obviously, it's been an issue around other things like the economy. If the economy improves, the ticket improves. Right, If the view on national security improves, it helps the ticket. I think that it is the kind of thing that for sure
will help Imblouise and Joe Biden's legacy. But I do think there is a competency check today that will enhance Vice President Harris's campaign prospects.
You know, we learned, and I'm not sure we've had a chance to talk about it yet, that Joe Biden is going to headline the first night at the Democratic National Convention. We've had a couple of conversations about what are they going to do with the president at Kamala Harris's convention?
Now?
What night did they have him introduced her? I think some have suggested they try to keep him as far away from her as possible. And we now know it's a primetime slot on Night one, when we can probably all agree that the fewest number of people are watching. But this is the kind of tape we're going to see, right Genie, Yeah, I think.
So, We're going to see the greatest hits of Joe Biden. It's going to be exciting because I get to be there with you and Rick and Kayley.
And everybody else. I am looking forward to it.
Maybe the Resident sits down with you and Keiley and has a long shout about his legacy.
All the questions we would ask, Rick, would you've put Joe Biden on Monday night at your convention? Is that good placement?
You know, it's a unique situation because not only is he the sitting president and he's he's unpopular, so that creates, you know, different conflicts. But he actually, up until ten days ago, was the candidate who was nominated by you know, the delegate. We're going to be nominated by the delegates at this convention. So I think you have to give the guy a break and give him a slot and
let him knock himself out. He he's got a story to tell about his administration, and you know, for the Monday night of a convention, I think I think it's almost mandatory, but you know, they run the risk of putting an intensely unpopular elected official in front of the American public extolling their virtues.
Of course, Rick Davis had a deal with the I don't know if it's a similar situation, but a whole different president at his convention. Rick Davis and Gendie Shanzino our signature panel with us back in hour two, we're going to explore this breaking story about the prisoner swap a lot more. Kaylee will join us and we'll talk
again about the latest on the campaign trail. Donald Trump doubling down on the attacks, in some cases racial attacks against Kamala Harris will have more of it ahead only on Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppo car Play and then Roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Nearly twenty four hours ago, we were all captivated watching the screen as Donald Trump took part in a mediated conversation at the National Association of Black Journalists conference in Chicago and made a few remarks that stood out. But of course, let's remind you of the big one.
I've known her a long time, indirectly, not directly very much, and she was always of Indian heritage, and she was only promoting Indian heritage. I didn't know she was black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn black. And now she wants to be known as black, So I don't know is she Indian or is she black?
That was yesterday, and we had a conversation a short time later with the congressman from Missouri, Emmanuel Cleaver, a Democrat, of course, who was once chair of the Congressional Black Caucus. His reaction.
We are in a really awful situation. I mean what the President said, and I don't think he gets and I hope somebody close to him will explain it. It was offensive, it was racially raunchy, and it was not becoming of a head of state.
Moved forward a couple of hours and Donald Trump doubles down on truth social quote crazy Kamala is saying she's Indian, not black. This is a big deal. Stone cold phony unquote JD Vance, his running mate on the stump last night, referring to Kamala Harris as a phony having a chameleon like nature. And so there are many questions about where this rhetoric is going and exactly how Kamala Harris should respond to it, what it means about the political discourse
in this country. And we're joined right now by a Democratic Member of Congress from the important swing state of Wisconsin. Gwen Moore is with us from Wisconsin's fourth district in Congresswoman, I want to welcome you back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. What do you make of this conversation in twenty twenty four.
Well, thanks for having me. You know, I think to be fair to Donald Trump with the black journalists. It was a hard crowd, and to be fair to the journalists, they had a very hard respondent. I think Donald Trump, we have to give him credit for really hitting all of his messaging points to keep people in fear of losing their jobs because of you know, the immigrants or overrunning the border and taking black jobs, and that they are overrunning the borders and their criminals and rapists, that
they're killing people a real exaggeration. And I wish this, you know, fact check in real time had been the journalists interrupting him because people believe that, and I think fear and xenophobia and fear of white people being overrun
by others. He was able to stay on message despite the very tough crowd that he was talking with, and of course the black journalists themselves was scratching their heads wondering why they had even invited him so well, certainly, I think it changed anybody's minds either way.
Well, certainly congressom when we saw things get combative a few times, specifically with Rachel Scott of ABC, who did try to fact check the former president at multiple times
throughout the conversation, and it actually did seem that. What set the whole thing off was her introductory question, in which she repeated a number of statements around black individuals black journalists that Donald Trump had made and asked him, essentially, why someone considering a black voter considering whether or not to cast that vote for him in November, should make
of that kind of rhetoric. What would you tell a black voter considering whether or not to vote for Donald Trump or instead to choose Kamala Harris.
Well, you know.
What the black journalists were trying to demonstrate.
Just listen to what he says. And you know, it has to me scratching my head as to why any black person would vote for him, except for those people who are exceptionally wealthy, or except for those rappers and so on who expect to be pardoned. But it's a curiosity. It's a curiosity why he even accepted the invitation to come. You have to give him credit for showing up for
that very tough crowd. But again, I don't think anybody's minds were changed, and I think black voters who saw it probably that increased their resolve to vote for Kamala Harris.
I'm struck by your approach here a congresswoman. I'm trying to follow what you're saying as closely as I can. I don't know if this is a little bit of reverse psychology, but are you giving Donald Trump credit for having continuity in being racist?
Yeah?
Absolutely, I think that he sounded like a true believer that you know that, you know, Mexicans and other people, criminals were overrunning the border and taking black jobs. I doubt that they were taking any of the black journalist's jobs that were sitting in that room. But he did have a huge platform for scaring other black people who may be marginalized and inappropriately blame people who crossed the border. I mean, he he had message discipline, He never got
off of his his big hits. He even even even when he said that Kamala, you know, he didn't realize she was black until recently. She was pretending to not be black. Even then, he was sort of appealing to some segment of the black community who may not feel like she's black enough. Even though she went to Howard University, had a black father. She joined the first black sorority
installed in the United States. You know people, you know, some black people who might have some very nationalistic views about what a black person ought to look like and be like and sound like. So he's stuck with the grievance message. He's stuck with the other's message. He's stuck with the victimhood message, and that, unfortunately has appeal to some people. I do think he was talking to his supporters.
His supporters might have been gleeful about him pushing back against these black women and talking over.
Them, and I'm sure that they.
Were very pleased with his performance.
Okay, so that's Donald Trump's message, Congressman. I also would like to ask you about the message the vice president could be bringing next week when she's planning to visit your home state of Wisconsin alongside her vice presidential peck, whomever that may be. What Massa wins Wisconsin for her? And is there a vice presidential pick that you think would be most likely to aid her in that effort in Wisconsin?
You know, I think Wisconsin is very willing and able statewide to elect a Democrat to the presidency. I think we have had enough of Donald Trump and even the Republicans, and we have seen the performance in so called Republican areas improve for Democrats statewide. So I do think that Kamala with whoever she picks, is going to be welcomed in Wisconsin. You know, there's a lot of talk back and forth about who she ought to pick. I hope she picks someone with whom she has a good rapport,
someone that she trusts, somebody that shares her vision. And I think there are a lot of great candidates of whom we've heard discussed over the networks in the past few days. I think any one of them would do would be very welcomed in Wisconsin.
All right, well, we should find out within the next few days. Congressoman, thank you so much for joining us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. We always appreciate your time. That is Congressoman Gwen Moore of Wisconsin, thank you. And let's turn back now in our final moments with our political panel, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors
are still with us. So, Genie, I would love to just get your reaction to what we just heard from Congresswoman more this idea that Donald Trump may have been racist yesterday, but at least he was consistent and disciplined about that message.
What do you think, Yeah, I was surprised to hear that.
You know, I think you know my impression and I would assume the representative might agree with this is it was the old Donald Trump we've all gotten used to. There was nothing new there. He's struggling in the polls. He's struggling to find a way to go after the Democrats and Kamala Harris in particular, and he needed to get the news back on him, and so he did as typical you know, whether it's birtherism or attacking somebody.
He did that yesterday and so there was nothing new.
In fact, Keiley, I kept thinking, I think the Democrats should have adopt the new slogan, which is it's not twenty sixteen anymore.
This is old.
We need something new from him and they're not getting it. So that was my take on it.
Rick I mentioned what Donald Trump posted on truth Social after he made the remarks at the NABJ crazy Kamala is saying she's Indian not black. This is a big deal, stone cold phony. Is this the path to losing the election?
You know, look, I know there are a lot of Republicans. John Thune mentioned this, These are inappropriate comments, and we ought to be talking about the issues that Republicans have an advantage on the economy, the border, and why he would go on a show like that which would be seen by a lot of black votes and be disparaging of someone's you know, ethnic background, regardless of how you
call it, is phenomenal to me. And of course he uses the same trope that well, I barely know her except that he wrote a campaign contribution to her when she was a Democrat as a black candidate, and so I think he knows a lot more than he leads
on it. And so yeah, I think the Republican Party would rather him be talking about the issues of the day that advantaged the campaign, then going down this sort of rabbit hole on frankly kind of reverse woke cultural battles that you know, nobody thinks is actually as irrelevant today as it was maybe back in twenty sixteen.
Reverse woke. That's a good one, that's a new one. Even Senator Tommy Tuberville didn't want anything to do with this. The coach from Alabama, quote, I ain't getting involved in that. Let him talk about what he wants to talk about on quote. That's where we are in American politics today. Kayleie, but I will point everyone back to the remarkable news that we started this hour with, and that is the release of four Americans as part of a huge prisoner swap with Russia that also happened today.
Yeah, and as the President said, good news and especially good news for the families that were with him at the White House. So a remarkable day in Washington. We're glad to spend some of it, as always with our political panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzino. Thank you both so much, and we'll have more ahead here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Rounoo with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Thanks for joining us on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio, where today we've been talking a lot about some pretty momentous news, a prisoner exchange with Russia involving dozens of individuals, including four Americans who had been detained who are now on their way home. That includes journalists also Kimasheva, Evan Gerskovich, and of course former US Marine Paul Whelan. We're just hearing now from US National
Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who is speaking to reporters. He says that Evan and Paul are expected back on American soil tonight. He says that President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will greet them as after they were released in this swap. But also some interesting news from Jake Sullivan when it pertains to the other thing we're watching,
which is escalating tensions in the Middle East. Joe Jake Sullivan says that President Biden will be speaking with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin et Niyahu later.
Today, once again finding himself, Joe Biden, finding himself in a position to call for calm and a proportionate response, in this case coming from Iran. Kayleie, the IDF, we're told, is bracing for revenge right now, gaming out options on what might come back to is from Iran following the strike that killed the political leader of Hamas in Tehran itself. They have vowed revenge. It's not a question of whether this will happen but to what extent it will happen?
And we want to talk to Kelly Grico about this among some of the other geopolitical stories that we're following. F sixteen's have just started arriving in Ukraine, for instance, Kelly senior fellow at the Stimpson Centers Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program. And it's great to have you back. Kelly. You talked to us back in April about the risk of a wider regional conflict when Israel was bracing at
that point for retaliation once again from Iran. Will the US and Israel be able to diffuse it like they did back in April.
Well, thank you for having me. You know, certainly deja vu all over again. You know, this is we're rolling the dice again. I think there are a couple of things. This is similar in some ways to what happened in April, that we're bracing for another attack, likely an attack directly on Israel, But there are some really important differences that make me more concerned about being able to manage it. One is that from Iran's perspective, this is a massive
deterrence failure. They had hoped when they launched the April attack in response to when Israel contected strikes against an embassy compound, killing some Iranian senior commanders.
They had hoped that that massive three hundred.
You know, drones missile farage would act as a deterrent, preventing Israel from doing something else, particularly something against Iran directly, and that hasn't worked, So they're going to feel a need to do something more escalatory to send that signal, that message to deter Iran moving forward, and of course that makes this very dangerous. And then we add to
it the humiliate piece for Iran. But this happened right in Tehran and you know, the senior government they're celebrating an inauguration, and that's that's a dangerous combination.
Well, so, Kelly, if we are comparing this moment to what we saw back in April, there was also a narrative after that failed attack that Iran sent those drones and missiles pretty much all intercepted by Israel, the US and other allies, that it showed a failure on the part of Iran. What else does Iran potentially have to throw at Israel? Hill here have we seen the full extent of their capability.
Yeah, So I would say two things.
I think we should be cautious about what happened in April, because, as someone who studies airpower really closely, that looked a lot like what I would call operational theater.
If they were serious.
About penetrating Israeli airspace air defenses, you do not send your slowest drones first alerting us that we have a four hour six hour, you know, notification that there's an attack starting, right, they would have started with ballistic missiles. They did quite the opposite, starting with the slowest thing. And so I think they were actually tending to a large degree for these things to be intercepted, sort of a display of force. I don't know if we're going
to see that this time. This might be, you know, a much more serious, sophisticated attack that's harder to defend against. And then I think we add to that, which is, you know, as you're saying, which is, there's other options here.
This was calibrated last time.
They did not involve proxy actors, whether that's in Lebanon or Syria or Yemen. So that's another option as well. It could be a more sophisticated attack, it could be a larger coordinated attack with proxies in the region.
Well, we see the US and allies providing the same defense role that we saw last time, actually knocking missiles out of the air on behalf of Israel.
Yeah, so, I mean yesterday Secretary Austin was asked about and he said that we would again stand by Israel and defended You know, it sounds like the United States is prepared to do that again. I do think there are real questions though about whether we'll see the same kind of coordination we saw last time with Saudi Arabia and Jordan in particular that allowed us to intercept things in their airspace. You know, they've all sent out statements
condemning Israel's actions. I think this makes it harder for them to repeat that from last time. And the other thing I just add is this is very expensive for US, the United States when we're using these kinds of interceptor missiles that we really need in other theaters, whether it's Ukraine or it's the Endo Pacific. So I think there's a question too, just about how many more times are we going to actually be.
Able to do this in support of Israel.
Well, which gets us back to our own defense industrial base, which was so much the question in the debate over aid for Ukraine, and certainly we've even heard the likes of Vice presidential nominee on the Republican side, JD. Vance, talking about how the US should be reserving more of its ammunitions and power for other areas other than Ukraine.
On that subject though Kelly, of course, in addition to the theater we're talking about in the Middle East, there's still the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russian We got the news yesterday that the first round of F sixteen deliveries has made it to Ukraine from NATO allies. How quickly will those jets make a difference?
You know, I don't think they're going to make much of a difference, and.
That's we know that that they're probably about six or so pilots that are graduating this summer. By the end of the year, it'll be about twenty, and usually it's two pilots per aircraft is sort of the rule of thumbs, So maybe about ten aircraft a most will be operating by the end of the year.
It's a fairly small number.
But I also just think that the F sixteen capabilities you see the Ukrainians kind of walking back some of their earlier statements about how impactful these would be, that they're not going to be able to use these to sort of gain air superiority and be able to, you know, support ground troops on the ground close to the front lines because of Russian air defenses.
So it's going to be really limited to.
More of an air defense role, perhaps intercepting some cruise missiles and drones if they're able to successfully do that. So, you know, it's expensive these F sixteens, but the actual impact on the back field, I fear will be quite limited.
I don't know if my eyes are right, Kelly, but for our listeners on Bloomberg Radio, that appears to be a picture of a spitfire you have framed behind you there in your office, and of course the legendary aircraft that helped to win the Battle of Britain. What then is Ukraine's spitfire? If not these.
You have a very good eye, first of all, because you are corrects the spitfire, I would say it's mobile ground based air defenses. You know, things like the Patriot, you know, the nay Sands that we've sent. Those have been the critical for them and keeping back most of Russia's air force at bay because if you move them and they can shoot and they can scoop. Of course, the challenge is we only have so many interceptor missiles. We were just talking about this in reference to Israel.
So there is some idea that perhaps the S sixteens can help to make a little bit of that doing it in an air to air roll.
It's a very expensive way to do that.
But it's really been these mobile ground based air defenses, and I would just say, looking at how important they have been, and they've been a challenge for the United States to find these kinds of things in other war zones and locate them and destroy them. We should be thinking about this. We don't have enough clearly on the United States side, getting back to the defense industrial base, and we really need to start making smart investments prioritizing air and missile defense.
How long does it take for those investments to actually come to fruition though, Kelly, what kind of timeline realistically are we considering here and what kind of resources?
Yeah, I mean this is a real concern, right, This this is not this is we're talking multi years. The number of you know, they're trying right now for the Patriot, for example, to increase the number of interceptors at around five hundred, maybe to get to seven hundred and fifty. But already they're starting to find even with that goal, things that are they're not supply shortages like very particular parts,
they're shortages. And you know, Japan was trying to ramp up some of the missile product and the same thing, like they can't do it because of a certain part having a shortage. And so there are all these bottlenecks in the defense industrial base, all all the components and not just the stumbling of the part itself. And so this is really a multi year effort to figure out how to resolve this and where to prioritize.
Those efforts as well.
If where are the central areas that we should really be trying to ramp up the defense industrial base? And I would just argue that air and missile defense is certainly one of those top priority areas.
Kelly, I just want to get back to where we started here before we let you go. And that's of course the situation in Israel. What's the critical window here? Do you give this the weekend to resolve when will we see something.
Yeah, so I think there's a likelihood we could see it this weekend. I think the longer this gets it gets delayed, the better. The one concern that I have is I feel like the bide A demonstration's response has been a bit sluggish to these events. And I don't know if it's because of the swap of prisoners with
Russia that all. A lot of the team was focused on that, but you know, we haven't seen As far as I know, there is no one's been sent to the region to try to, you know, do shuttle diplomacy like last time, and so I'm hoping, you know, very quickly we're going to see some of that that might even buy us sometime before israel I ran response, But it could be as soon as this weekend.
Well, we do know. As I mentioned at the top of this segment, Jake Sullivan says President Biden will be speaking with Prime Minister Benjamin Nett and Yahoo. Is that likely to be an advice call, Kelly or is that a reassurance call that the US will be there for Israel whatever comes its way.
Yeah, I feel like it should probably be a grievance call first. You know perspective.
I mean, he's been working and his team has been working to try to get a ceasefire to release hostages, and it seems to have been very, very close, and in fact, Israel seems to be the party that pulled back away from it. And of course Israel has now effectively killed one of the people that was involved in the negotiations, and so I think this is going to be really hard to get a ceasefire deal.
And I think that's something the ministration really wanted.
And now not only is there not a seaspire, probably, but we're back at the real danger of a regional war. And I can't imagine the Biden administration is particularly happy. But they've also tied themselves so closely to Natanahu that they don't really have as much of a choice but to support him. And it seems like that is something bidenminstration is prepared to do, including defending with US military power.
All Right, Kelly Grigo, sobering conversation, But thank you so much as always for joining us.
Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.