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As you keep hearing, we're counting down to the final two weeks here on the campaign trail, and we'll get to what Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are up to in a moment. Huge questions though about the impact, if any at all, that the latest news from Israel might have on this race. Important optics yesterday to see Kamala Harris out there in front of the podium speaking on behalf of the administration, upon the news that Israel killed
Ya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas. It happened right at this time yesterday, right we learned together during this program we have heard from the President himself, Joe Biden in fact, already on his way back from Germany. That was a quick one. Met with Olaf Schultz, had to sit down with Emmanuel Macrone, got a big award while he was there. He talked about this news from Israel along the way. Here's Joe Biden.
The death of Leaderjmas represents a moment of justice. He had the blood of Americans and Israelis, Palestinians and Germany and so many others on his hands. I told the Prime Minister of Visil yesterday, let's also make this moment an opportunity to seek a path to piece a better future in Gaza without Hamas.
Brings us to the news on the terminal and the headline us pushing for truce in Gaza after Israel kills Hamas leader. We can add another headline while we're at it here Biden will send blinkoln to Israel in aftermath of Sinhwar's death. Is this an opportunity for peace? Or
did the window just close? A lot of people asking that too, because Sinwar, of course was speaking for Hamas and it's unclear who exactly has taken the calls right now, That's where we start our conversation with Courtney McBride, who frequently travels with the Secretary of State covering diplomacy and national security for US here at Bloomberg in Washington. Courtney, it's great to see you. Thanks for coming along. This is obviously a big deal yesterday and people are trying
to understand what its impact will be. If we can just start with our own relationship with Israel in this wait for a response to Iran, the prospect of a cease fire with Gaza. That it moved the needle on any.
Of these, I mean that remains to be seen. Sinwar has been framed as the biggest obstacle to a ceasefire in Gaza. You know, over the last month or so he was not communicating with the mediators in Egypt and culture, and so there's there's some hope tenuous though it may be that perhaps a successor would would be a little bit more amenable to talks.
I keep hearing the word opportunity. Kamala Harris used it yesterday, So did Joe Biden, what opportunity does Benjamin Netna who see well?
Prime Minister Ntnaho has said that, you know, the fight is not over. You know, Hamas continues to be a threat to Israel, but he also suggested that if Hamas were to lay down its arms, this war could end in short order. You know, it remains to be seen whether the parties come to the table or their mediators do so.
But we'll see enter Anthony Blincoln. We don't have an announcement on a trip yet, correct. What would be the timing that would be effective? Do they want him there now? Or is maybe there are a thought that we wait for Israel's response to Iran before he gets on an airplane.
I mean unclear. You know, I'm certainly not privy to the planning process, but the President made clear that he was going to be dispatching secretary of blink and in the coming days. You know, it remains to be seen exactly when that is. But I'm sure that you know, part of that calculation on timing is that sense that there is potentially an opportunity, Yeah, which.
I suspect is up in the air right now, knowing that Israel is dealing with multiple fronts. Would that be a meeting with Benjamin Nett Nyahu or is there a hope that Anthony Blincoln ends up at a negotiating table with multiple parties?
I mean, who knows. I mean, as we know, CIA Director Bill Burns has been leading the hostage negotiation and cease fire deal talks on behalf of the United States. I have no reasona believe that that would change. But certainly, you know, if if Secretary Blincoln is is being sent to the region, he would presumably be meeting with with natal or other other senior leaders.
Joe Biden said something awfully important right when he was getting on the airplane. We ran this headline on the terminal. I know how Israel will respond to Iran and when that means a plan is in place? Do we take him at his word?
I mean, he has been in contact with with Natano, and you know, if if he knows, I suppose it.
Pretty for the President to be.
Saying that, it's unusual certainly, uh, you know, for for him to be telegraphing. I guess he's not saying the timing.
That's right, he just says that he knows. So clearly they had quite a conversation uh yesterday, and you wonder again what form that will take. Is this going to be uh, a situation where the dynamic changes following the election? The world is waiting to see who the next president is. How About in Israel certainly.
I mean, you know, it's no secret that there have been tensions between Nataniello and Biden, and you know, the Prime Minister and former President Trump seem to have a good understanding. But there is some sense that there could be another window of opportunity, both for Israel and for the US in the period between the election and the inauguration. Perhaps that is dependent on the outcome of the US election, but you know, it remains to be seen how much leverage sure either party has.
It's always amazing to see what can get done in a lame duck session. Courtney, It's great to see you. Thank you. One of these days I'm going to come to the news from Courtney will not be here, and I'll just know that Anthony of Lincoln is on his way. Bloomberg National Security reporter Courtney McBride on an important day here in the evolution of this war between of course Israel and Hamas that has been underway for over a year. Yaya Sinwar, who was killed and confirmed right around this
time yesterday, known as the architect of October seventh. And so this is of course seen as not only a win for Israel, but also for the Biden administration. And we want to add the voice of Jonathan Panakoff. We haven't had Jonathan with us in a moment, and none would be better than right now. He's director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council. Jonathan, welcome back to Bloomberg. It's good to see you. What
do you make of Joe Biden with this revelation? Before getting on Air Force one, I know how Israel will respond to Iran and when is this plan cooked?
Great to be back with you. Oh look, I mean I think certainly a reflects frankly better and greater coordination than we saw when it came to Israel strikes against Nasralla, when it came to Israel strikes against Hania, when the US clearly was not informed. I think it also reflects or recognition in Israe that as much as Prime Minister net and Yaho, they want to go it alone and keep things close hold when it comes to Iran, it's
just a different category than Hesbala or Hamas. The reality is Israeli strikes in have a huge impact on the US, and there's real questions, right, would the Israelis be willing to strike energy terminals? Would they be pipelines? I would obviously have huge reverberations across the world across energy markets. Would they try to strike the nuclear assets and program of Iran? I think actually having it be coordinated with
the US is a positive thing. And I think, while maybe surprising, the President said that he knows what the plan is now, I think everybody just has to hope that Israel sticks to that plan.
Well, there was reporting that the Biden administration has essentially talked Israel into avoiding oil installations, never mind the nuclear weapons program, and we've seen the oil market respond accordingly. That brought prices down quite a bit. Whether or not we believe that, Jonathan, do you think everything is on the table here or this will be a precision strike by Israel?
No, my sense is and I could be completely wrong here, but because I'm going based on the same reporting you are, But I think given commentary by the President He probably wouldn't have said that if you still had disagreements, And the President's been pretty clear he wants to see energy infrastructure, oil infrastructure off the table when it comes to a strike, same with a nuclear weapons program. That doesn't mean the strike won't be incredibly robust. In fact, I'd expect that
it will be. I think military installations, hardware, defensive equipment that Iran has put up to try and prevent futures, really strikes, cyber attacks, my sensors, all of that is probably on the table. I think you'll still have a robust response, but maybe you're just excluding those specific areas.
Of course, that's in a How about next door in Gaza? Kamala Harris sounding a bit like Joe Biden using the word opportunity when she spoke yesterday about the killing of Yaya Sinwar quote, this moment gives us an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza, and it must end such that Israel is secure. Is this just happy talk two weeks before an election here, Jonathan, or does this actually present an opportunity for peace?
I think it really depends on Frankly who emerges as the leadership of Hamas and WhereNet and Yah who feels like he's hid an end goal when it comes to what's needed for security of Israel. If Hamas actually elects somebody outside of Gaza, somebody like Halal Hayak, who's been the chief negotiator since Nia's death, then yeah, I think it probably does represent an opportunity that you actually could
get to some sort of hostage ceasefire deal. But the reality is if Hamas decides no, we're gonna double down and elect somebody like Mohammed Sinhwar, the brother of Yaya Sinhar, who is one of the chief architects, frankly of the tunnel infrastructure, it's gonna make it much much harder to imagine that you're going to reach a deal even in the aftermath of an election.
Boy, that's really something you're an expert on Middle East security, Jonathan. Is this going to escalate into a wider war or is the next exchange gonna be the last?
I think it really is going to depend on two things. One is how far Ron wants to escalate, and you got to be under clear that there's tensions in Iran. Iran, it may have the Supreme Leader making the ultimate call, but it's not a monolith. There are various folks in Iran, in the guards who are going to want to strike back. I'm sure to whatever Israel does hard to try to ensure deterrents from there, and there's folks who are going
to say, no, we have to end this. We can't afford, frankly, to re escalate, because then Israel's gonna say, look, we did what the US wanted. Now the energy assets are on the table, now the nuclear weapons program is on the table. I think that's gonna be a real debate,
frankly in Iran. The second part of this is Frankly, Lebanon, because even if you've got a deal in Gaza, it's hard to imagine Israel saying we're not going to continue to go after the ballistic missile capabilities, the cruise missile capabilities, and keep trying to push Kesbala back the ten kilometers from the border so Israeli citizens can return to their homes in the North. I think that also has the
potential to start to a spiral further. If Kesbala is able to re emerge and have its command to control more intact. It's clearly been decimated by Israel, but you've seen over the last couple of days, especially a new barrage of clearly coordinated rockets timed attacks that kids that Kasbaala has started to regroup, at least in the South.
Wow, are you giving up on hostages, Jonathan? I hate to ask such a cold question, but it's been over a year.
I'm not giving it up on them yet, but clearly I think time is running out in a way we haven't seen in quite a while. The reality is we've talked about it's about one hundred hostgage over of those, the truth is you probably have maybe upwards of a third of them who may have passed away. That number may be higher, So the numbers are actually probably closer
to the fifty sixty seventy mark. The question is, frankly, how whether or not the Biden plan that was put on the table in May and then try to re up in July is still the basis for negotiations. My senses that it will be, And if Hamas wants to cease fire, then that's going to require a hostage deal and a prisoner swap from the Israelis. If Hamas doesn't want to cease fire or isn't ready for one, or Netni Young who decides a ceasefire still isn't going to
provide sufficient security. Then I think there's going to be a challenge. But the reality is Netniyah, Who's going to be under more domestic pressure to get a hostage deal than at any point in the last year. And we've seen some massive protests in is roll over this. I think what you're going to see in the coming days is going to be even greater.
Wow, Jonathan, Thank you Jonathan Panakoff, exactly why we wanted him here. This is going to be an important weekend in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. He's with the Atlantic Council. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Will have much more ahead on the fastest show in politics, This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken just live weekdays at noon Eastern on applecarplaying roun Oo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.
Kaylee. It was right around this time yesterday we were hearing from Benjamin Etnyah who following the death of the leader of hamas ya Ya Sinwar.
Yeah, and he while claiming victory over that particular death, saying that the score has been settled with Sinwar, he did say this war is not yet over, even as the US is pushing for this to be the first step in something that could lead to a ceasefire.
Yeah.
Joe Biden did have a call with Netnyaho as well following this news yesterday, and the Prime Minister addressed the people of Israel following this headline Let's listen.
I mean, I'm stating before you today to inform you the hamas leader Yaya Sinwar, has been eliminated. The person who committed the most terrible massacre in the history of our nations since the Holocaust, the mass murderer who murdered thousands of Israelis and kidnapped hundreds of our citizens, was eliminated today by our heroic soldiers. And today, as we promised to do, we settled the account with him. Today has suffered a heavy blow. But the task before us is not yet complete.
So for more on what it's going to take to bring this war to completion, we turn to Natasha Hall. She is centered for Strategic and International Studies, a Middle East program. Senior fellow. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio, Natasha. Obviously, the US is hoping that Sinwar's death will ultimately lead to a sea spire between Israel and Hamas. How likely do you think that is?
Thank you for having me again.
I don't see how this changes very much, and that's emphasized in Netanya Who's recent remarks, but even Benigains's remarks right after Sinwar's death basically saying that the war would continue for years to come. I do not see a ceasefire happening by the US election time. Unfortunately, I don't
think Sinwar's death necessarily changes that. And we've also seen the public statement from PEMES saying that there issues remained unchanged, that they're looking for a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli troops.
Natasha. Joe Biden said something pretty compelling as he was getting on Air Force one leaving Germany a couple of hours ago, quote, I know how Israel will respond to Iran and when that must have been quite a phone call with Benjamin Nett and Yahoo yesterday. Should we believe that Israel's response to Iran is now set's.
That's really unclear, but yes, it seems like President Biden knows what's going to happen.
There's been sort of analysts.
Thinking that it would probably be military installations that would be in play here with Israel's retaliation on Iran, and that could be, you know, the big scene setting that Biden wants to have before the election instead of all eyes on what's.
Going on in Lebanon right now and in Hase.
Well.
So as we consider Iran here, it's one thing to think about how Israel is going to approach Iran and response to Iran's attempted attack from earlier this month. It's another to consider how Iran is going to respond to another senior leader, the most senior leader of one of its proxies, being taken out by Israel, as we've seen with Hesbola as well. If It's proxies are weaker, is Iran going to fear it itself looks weak? What does this do to its behavior?
I mean, I think everything that we've seen, especially in the past two or three months, has been quite humiliating for Iran. I would actually say the assassination of Ismaanhania, who was sort of the political negotiator of Hemas more was more humiliating for Iran because it happened in Tehran, it happened within a highly secure IRGC compound.
This was Sinoar dying in battle.
Almost you know, heroically to the end, even though he is by all accounts aiatepath. So I think I think the other things that we've seen have actually been bigger challenges for Iran, the Pager attack, the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah. I mean, Hesbalalah is really the crown jewel for Iran. Hamas is more of an ideological I would say, sort of.
Ally and helps boost Iran.
Sort of amongst you know in the world as part of the Palestinian resistance, but really the firepower comes from from southern Lebanon with Hisbolah.
It's a really important distinction, Natasha, where the US went out of its way to make clear that America did not take part, did not help Israel in this raid. To your point, it was essentially an accident on the battlefield that they came face to face yesterday. Will the US help beyond a defensive posture when Israel responds to Iran.
That that's a great question. I mean, I think with regards to anything, at this point, this is US's war. The US has to be dragged in to defend its ally Israel, and I think that's the scary part here because we will see in Israeli retaliation and then we potentially will see more regional escalation and more US presence in the region and the United States really getting dragged into, I believe, a war that.
It doesn't want to have on its watch.
We understand Natasha that Hamas is likely going to be naming the successor to Sinwar based in Cutter. Sinwar was in Gaza. He was very much at the center of where all of this activity is happening. Cutter has been a media mediator in conversations between Israel and Hamas and the attempted cease fire negotiations. How significant would it be if the new leader of this organization is not is based in a mediating country, in a third party country.
That's a great question.
And we call them hotel guys, so essentially people that are hold up in hotels in Turkey or kata and and aren't really part of the fight on the ground, and there's been a few names floated to that effect that that could potentially be more conciliatory, one of them being Sinhara's deputy and the other one being ka which we all know of for many many years now with MS although Iran would probably not like that appointment.
But the the other option is is someone.
Like Mohammed Sinhar his brother, who who is on the battlefield, And it's unclear to me how somebody outside of the country necessarily can dictate actions on the ground at this point. So you could see some conciliatory gestures from from these guys in in Kata, but it remains to be seen how people will feel sort of on the ground.
This has started a whole new round of conversation Natasha about whether Kamala Harris will bring a different approach to this than Joe Biden. We were struck yesterday to see her speaking for the administration because the president was in the air on his way to Europe. What is your view on this if she were to win this election, what would be the difference between a Harris and Biden administration when it comes to Israel.
Well, that's the big question, I think, especially for millions of Arab Americans. It's very difficult to tell. Kamala Harris cannot really distance herself from the president, so it's really unclear. She said recently in an interview that she will be different from a Biden administration, but on this issue in particular, she's been very very close to the Biden administration, and we really haven't seen much daylight between them aside from tone.
So I do think.
That it will be very difficult to see any kind of progress until the US election happens. I do not think that the Netanyahu government wants to deliver Harris a win with a ceasefire before the election, frankly, and so it's really impossible to tell. What we do know is that Trump cut off access to or funding to ANNUDWA, the UN agency that assists Palestinian refugees across the region, when he was president, and we do know that he
was quite close to Israel and Israel's interest. That said, it's still really unclear to me what really tangible differences there will be with a new administration.
Well, Kamala Harris has maintained when she's been asked that she would not support an arms embargo to Israel, that she will continue to support Israel's defense of itself, but this administration has warned if the humanitarian situation doesn't improve in Gaza in just the next few weeks, they will begin to withhold arms. Do you think that is a real threat, Natasha or an empty one.
That's also a really good question.
We saw this letter recently from the Secretary of Defense Floyd Austin and Secretary of State Anthony Lincoln basically alluding to US law that says that we cannot sort of deliver security assistance to a country that does not allow US humanitarian aid in and we've seen famine like conditions in Gaza, really a horrific humanitarian situation. That said, that letter came out expecting Israel to make progress within thirty days. Well,
thirty days gets us to the US election. So it's unclear to me if this is a really serious threat. We've seen sort of behind the scenes threats like this before and Israel making little bit of progress but then reversing course immediately and they're being really no such consequences. So I have a feeling, given Harris's recent comments on sort of not moving forward with an arms embargo, that this might be one of one more sort of hollow bread.
The Secretary of State is being dispatched, the President says to the region, I presume he'll be sitting down with the Prime Minister. Natasha, you can let us know what you think of that. But I wonder how this timing is going to work out. Clearly they don't want Anthony Blincoln to be in Israel when it responds to Iran. Correct, That's that's.
Unclear to me because it might be seen as a win for the administration depending on who their audience is.
But that said, you know, I don't know if if they're assuming that there will be a cease fire.
The Netnyahu administration has not been particularly friendly towards towards the White House and administration officials in the past year, if not before that.
So it's it's again, it's unclear.
It's probably related to the response on Iran, but there is no doubt that I'm sure, you know, Secretary of Blincoln will will aim to move towards some kind of ceasefire, at least opening of humanitarian need.
Natasha, we just have about a minute left here. But what becomes of the hostages in the aftermath of Sinwar's death, what would you expect.
That?
That's a really sort of a tragic question, I think one that's on a lot of Israeli's minds, because one could think that if there's more conciliatory leadership for Hamas outside of of Raze, that they might accede to a hostage deal. That said, we don't know where the hostages are, and we don't know what the decision making kind of chain of command right now ground is in Thauza, and there could be a lot of confusion that works against the hostages and the hostage release.
So that's that's the really big.
Question mark I think here, and I don't think it's a particularly positive one necessarily of Anatasha.
It's great to have you back the Center for Strategic and International Studies Middle East Program Senior Fellow. When news like this breaks, we like to compare notes with Natasha. Thank you.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, car Play and then roun Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
The candidates are heading toward Michigan, one of the critical rust Belt battleground states that could decide this election, and as part of their last minute media sweep and state sweep in these final days. That media sweep is something we've paid a lot of attention to this week, as Kamala Harris sat down for an interview on Fox. They've
both been participating in a lot of podcast interviews. We mentioned some of what Donald Trump said on a podcast today about taxes, which we'll get into in just a minute, but he also sat down this morning with Fox and Friends, and this is an interesting one, Joe. He said in that interview that he's going to meet with Rupert Murdoch and specifically request him not to air any negative ads about him for the next twenty one days.
And that's that or interviews with people who don't like him, right, Presumably no negativity. Kamala Harris, who pulled almost eight million the ratings, jumped off the page. I'm assuming prompted that comment from him this morning. Yeah, they all sat on the couch together, despite reports today suggesting he's so exhausted he's canceling interviews. To your point, Kaylee sat down on the online show maintaining with Tyrus and talk about this idea of no taxes at least you consider for military,
for police and firefighters. How many people is that again, twenty million. That's a lot of people. That's a lot of dollars. Yeah, And so Laura Davison has been watching all this for us. Before we spend some time with Ben Harris, we get to Bloomberg's politics editor joining us from here in Washington. Laura, how many more economic policy proposals could we get with eighteen days to go?
Well, you know, we've gotten four or five or six surprise ones just in the past several days, so you know, there certainly is time for more. And really the formula that Trump has been following here is sort of no taxes on X, you know, no taxes on the military
overtime paid tips. So that sort of seems to be the sort of the way he's going about this, which really has a sort of political angle here of he's dolling out these tax cuts that appeal to specific groups of supporters of fans, sort of designed to get people either to switch their vote from Harris to Trump or to some of those people who are maybe less than politically engaged, not inclined to vote, but say, hey, look I'm a veteran.
Maybe I will get off the couch and go vote in November.
And it is a question, ultimately though, of the math, knowing that this could potentially be even more deficit additive than the math we've already done for some of these other policy proposals, Laura. But at this point, with each new proposal that is introduced, is it less likely that this entire package would be able to get through a Congress that we presume could be divided. Even if Donald Trump wins the presidency.
It is extremely unlikely that the entirety of all these proposals he's passed or he's talked about will pass Congress.
This is you know, even before the.
No taxes on military and police, it was fifteen trillion dollars worth of tax cuts that he was talking about.
You know, just you know, about a third of that, about.
Almost five trillion, is just expending his twenty seventeen tax cuts. Those will kind of be the first place where Congress starts. Those are tax cuts that people are already experiencing for you know, individual households, households as well as small businesses.
That'll be the first step in some.
Of these more you know, kind of politically driven ones, the no taxes on tips, no taxes on military. You know, it's highly unlikely that we'll see those in a serious conversation in Congress next year.
So I guess, I mean, is it just easy to be handing out candy like this, or at least offering to Laura knowing that it would take Congress to approve of all these tax exemptions. We're not going to get this in front of the Ways and Means Committee for some time, so why not propose whatever you want?
Yeah, that's really what kind of the strategy we've seen Trump employ here. It's also true that that both sides do this.
Can you say, look, here's what I want to do.
You see, you know, you saw you know Biden do this with student loans of hey, look I want to do this, but the courts blocked me. You know, Congress won't pick up my bill. We sell this with you know, immigration as well. So this is a tried and true strategy of you know, here's sort of my vision for America, but I need either the courts or Congress to play along.
Well, Laura, as we consider spending here, or the lack of people spending money on their taxes. I suppose it also raises the question of how these policy messages are being spread here in the final weeks. Obviously we're all being inundated with a lot of campaign ads for down
ballot races residential as well. Should we expect a ramping up of the spending in states that ultimately could decide this thing Michigan, where the candidates are today, Pennsylvania in these final stretches, or is all the time bought up at this point?
You expect that these last few weeks if you're in one of those states, basically every ad you're going to see is a political ad. This is the most expensive stretch of the campaign. They basically buy any ad time they can get their hands on. You know, if you're in Pennsylvania, you're going to be hit the most. Both Harris and Trump are spending the majority, not the majority, but that's the biggest ad spend there. Harris is still
looking at all seven states. She has big advis there, but her allies, the super political action committees that are helping her, they're specifically focused on the Blue Wall. So you know, Michigan, Pennsylvania, you know, watch out.
Well, with that in mind, everybody is headed to Michigan tonight and it's on to Detroit, specifically Laura, where early voting starts tomorrow. This is a rollout to get to Lancaster and in other areas during the week statewide by next Saturday. And we understand we'll talk a little bit about this later, but the Obamas are coming out for
the finale here. Barack Obama will be with Kamala Harris on stage to usher in this early voting period, and Michelle Obama herself, arguably the most important surrogate that Kamala Harris has, will be there next weekend. These are the closing optics of this race.
Yeah, and these are two of the most popular people in the Democratic Party and really just public figures anywhere.
So Harris is hoping.
To sort of attach yourself to their coattails, get people out who remember the Obama years fondly, you know, who may be less inclined. We know that she's not performing as well with black voters, particularly black men, and that's an area she has been focused on this week and season.
Need to shore up those supporters, all.
Right, Bloomberg Politics editor Laura Davison here in Washington. Thank you so much as we assess some of these policy proposals we're still getting from the candidates as they take their messages to the swing states. With just a handful of days to go at this point until the election eighteen.
You act like it's late in the game for this type of thing to be happening. Well, it got eighteen days.
Just feel a little late in the game here, but of course it's not too late to start putting together some math on this, as we have seen a number of nonpartisan groups do, and we want to get more into the math and potential economic impact of some of these policy proposals. And turn out to Ben Harris. He is former Assistant Treasury Secretary during the Biden administration. He's now Brookings Institution Vice President and director of Economic Studies.
He is here with us in our Washington, d C. Studio. Welcome to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Ben, it's good to have you.
Thanks.
If we could just begin with Donald Trump today suggesting he would at least consider not taxing veterans and first responders and members of the military. Some twenty million people layered on top of all of the other tax proposals he's put out there, things that would not get taxed. What is the baseline of how much needs to be taxed to continue to fund the US government?
So more than he's proposing.
I mean, I don't have a magic number, but I mean his approach has been to start with the TCJA extension, which costs five trillion dollars over ten years, and then to add on all of these special tax breaks that
really don't have an economic justification. You know, as you just mentioned, tax breaks for wages, sorry for tips, tax breaks for particular occupations, tax breaks for people who receive Social Security benefits, which by the way, would completely undermine Social Security and Medicare finances, were already up probably close around ten trillion dollars in counting. This isn't a realistic set of proposals. They're just far too expensive to ever make it through Congress.
You know, at one point, Ben, we had Republicans like Kevin Brady, pretty old fashioned Republicans sitting here at the table saying, hey, there's going to be a real important debate here. We need to make the Trump tax cuts permanent. That was six to nine months ago before all the other items and exemptions that we've mentioned since were rolled out.
What happens to the old fiscal responsible Republicans who were going to help usher this through on Capitol Hill, who wake up every day to another exemption.
I mean, there are fiscally responsible Republicans in Congress, but they must be pret lonely right now. I mean, I think the turning point was back in twenty seventeen when Republicans passed a one point five trillion dollar tax cut without paying for it, and that kind of opened the door for this idea that look, for certain types of priorities, it's okay to take on enormous amounts of debt. And so that's what we saw, and that feels like where Donald.
Trump has left the priority?
Now, what's the priority now?
I think the party is winning the election and then they'll see the composition of Congress, and then they'll come back to the drawing board, and if there's a Republican sweep, I think you can expect a wholesale extension of the TCJA with a few other Republican priorities mixed in, you know, to be fair Republicans. Though they did pass the limit safe Grow Act coming out of the House, which did
reduce the deficit. It was basically a combination of caps on discretionary spending plus a couple of other pay fors. So it's not as though there have been no Republican priorities that have made it through a House of Congress. It just feels like if Donald Trump's can be in the White House, He's been pretty clear he's comfortable taking on trillion dollars in new debt.
Ben reminding us that it's not just tax policy that we're going to see a battle over in twenty twenty five, but we're going to have to deal with the dead sealing again, as you recall back to that deal. So there's so much to look forward to. All that to say, when we look at Kamala Harris's proposals, nonpartisan organizations have two said it will add to the deficit. Perhaps less three and a half trillion dollars is what the Committee
for Responsible but Federal Budget has had to say. But Donald Trump would contend her policies will also be inflationary. Is there not some truth in that.
That her policies will be inflationary.
She's subsidizing housing, it could drive up housing costs. If she's cutting taxes, all of these things could fuel inflation and make the deficit go higher all the same.
Yeah, So I think on the housing policy, it's great that you brought that up, but the twenty five thousand dollars first time home by a tax credit was far from the only proposal that she put forward. Sorry, she also wants to expand housing supply. I think that the first time home buyer tax credit really only makes sense if it's done in conjunction with an expansion in the
housing supply. That's not really inflationary as far as her other policies go, I mean, she is taking aim at costs across the board.
Wants to make prescription drugs cheaper.
I mean, I think that the household costs have been kind of a centerpiece of her of her policies.
Price gouging she wants to go after does.
Not work, so no.
I mean, most states have price gouging laws on the books, and for most states they are non binding. Most Americans live in a state that has price gouging laws, and as far as I can tell, they're fairly inconsequential.
So I think that's, you know.
Pretty far down on the list of policies that matter for the American people. But she has made prices a centerpiece of her campaign.
Yeah, that's interesting because that was a that was a big rollout at the time she made it, and it's still on the backdrops and it's still on the stump speech. It's just when you start waiting priorities. I think to your point here, well, the next president of the United States, Trump or Harris have to manage a recession in their first year.
That's a great question.
I mean, what I can say now about the state of the macroeconomy. This is like the definition of a soft landing. I mean, it's when we go back twenty years and reflect on what the FED has done with this current economy. I think will kind of be in awe of how well things turned out. I mean, we've got I mean I can just go list them in the highlights. We've got a higher share of people working primate to people working that we've seen in over twenty years.
We've seen inflation come down to an a level where the FED is perfectly comfortable with it. We've seen a wealth explosion in this country, almost fifty trillion dollars in wealth added over the course of the pandemic. I mean, you can kind of go on and on and on, but we have a great economy, both relatives to prior recoveries and also relative to the rest of the developed world.
So right now, when I.
Talk to forecasters, most of them say we have about a ten to fifteen percent chance for a session in the next year, which is kind of the unconditional average in any that's not so bad.
I'll take that at this point.
Well, so, if all of that is how this economy is shaping up right now, does this look like an economy to you that needs easier policy or is it simply an economy that doesn't need tighter policy anymore?
Are you talking about monetary policy? Well, I think that with respect to monetary policy the FEDS, that is spot. It's kind of an enviable spot right now, where it knows we're not so close to the neutral rate. The next few fifty BIPs of cutting feel pretty easy, and then you start getting into the hard decisions. So markets, right now, I think it at around a ninety percent chance of a twenty five BIPs cut in the next meeting.
I would probably take the over on that.
As far as probabilities go and about a seventy five percent chance we'll get two cuts between now and December. Those are easy decisions though, inflation's way down, the labor market's weakening. I think it's pretty easy to vote for a twenty five BIPs cut. But after we get past the four and a half percent for the Fed funds rate, we get closer to four, that's when the hard decisions start coming.
Donald Trump was asked in the Univision town hall earlier this week what would happen to agriculture, jobs and other parts of the labor market if he followed through on what he calls mass deportation. He didn't use that term in this conversation, but he also didn't really answer the question. Do you have a sense of what would happen to the job market if you shut down the border and conducted a mass deportation of millions of migrants in the country.
Yeah, So these are two different policies, So let's say kick them out. So both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump want to shut down the border. Kamala Harris backs the Biden Plan, which you know, essentially puts in place a whole host of different policies.
Actually the Senate comprom Yeah, exactly. So what we're.
Really talking about now, the difference between the two candidates is what would happen if we saw mass deportation on the order of something we've never even come close to seeing this country. We're talking about potentially in immigration agents, going to schools, going to place the business, potentially checkpoints. It's really unclear how you're going to find ten million
people to kick them out of the country. From an economic perspective, economists don't love kicking workers out at a time when you have worker shortages.
So if you look at.
Some of the estimates coming out of Golden Sacks, if you look at esimates coming out of the Brookings Institution, non partisan estimates, you do find a hit on growth simply because we need workers.
And now is not the best time to kick them out.
Of right, So that could hasten the recession.
Yeah, I think they probably recession goes up if you're talking about sixty percent tariffs on Chinese goods and if you're kicking millions of people out.
Of the country.
Yeah, So it becomes a demographic consideration, right, the US needs immigration to maintain its workforce. Definitely all right, Ben, thanks for joining.
Us, for having me absolutely, Ben Harris back at the table, don't be a stranger. Brookings Institution, former Assistant Treasury Secretary in the Biden administration, with his experience in view. Today in Washington, I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines here in the nation's capital, will assemble our panel. Next. We've got an interesting week ahead on the campaign trail. Donald Trump behind the Frio latter at McDonald's and the Obamas joining Kamala Harris. That's right in Detroit.
Indeed, we're going to see them at a number of rallies in these final weeks here ahead of the election. Joe's really fixated on the McDonald's.
I just want to see the optics, how are they going to do this? And does he wear the uniform?
The question many quest have.
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Thirty ahead of what we expect will be an appearance by Donald Trump at the McDonald's this weekend. He's actually gonna work the machinery I and the fry cooker. We understand Box County. Joe's very excited about this.
This could be the highlight of the campaign, or will it be the Ducacas helmet and the tank moment. It's going to be one of the other, Kiley, and we'll be there to find.
Out, yes, of course, just like we were there to find out what happened at the annual ADL. Smith dinner in New York last night. Donald Trump was there, Kamala Harris was not. She set sent in a video instead. So let's get a little taste of what both of them had to say.
My opponent feels like she does not have to be here. If you really wanted Vice President Harris to accept your invitation, I guess you should have told her the bunge we're going to bail out the looters and writers in Minneapolis.
Thou shalt not bear false witness to thy neighbor, indeed, especially thy neighbor's election results. And maybe don't sain thing negative about Catholics.
I would never do that, no matter where I was. That would be like criticizing Detroit. In Detroit.
Ooh, and they're going to Detroit tonight. So she brought Mary Catherine Gallagher with her Kayleie. Interesting device when you're speaking to a massive Catholic charity event. Look, this is supposed to be lighthearted, fun spirited, self deprecating, that's the idea. She doesn't even show up. Donald Trump criticized her for it, insulted her intelligence, the manhood of her running mate, and questioned the veracity of her marriage, all in the first
couple of jokes. He actually had pretty nice things to say about Eric Adams and Chuck Schumer, of all people. But it was kind of an awkward night. There was just as much boom and golf clapping as there was laughing.
Well, and so I guess it raises the question of if this is a win for Donald Trump that he decided to show up when Harris Yeah did not, or if this were just calling this one even I'm going to call.
It a win for Jim Gaffigan, who m seated. Let's assemble the panel and see what they make of all of this. I don't know if these things matter anymore, Nothing's the same, right. Genie Shanzano is with his Democratic analyst Bloomberg politics contributor and a political science professor at Iona University, joined today by Brittany Martinez, Republican strategist founder Spina and Company. What do we think about this, Genie? Events like this, the big white tied dinners are a
bunch of famous people up on the dais. We've got a celebrity comedian as the MC. Does it actually help the campaigns to take part in this or did Kamala Harris make the right decision to be in a swing state last night?
I think she made the right decision. You know, this is a lot of inside baseball who doesn't love one of these dinners. It's an old tradition in politics. I think it's sad to see it run by the wayside, but I do think that is what we are seeing because you see campaigns increasingly turning their nose at some of these events that they just think it's not going
to pay off. So Donald Trump with sixty minutes, Donald Trump with the White House Correspondent's Dinner, now, you know, following Walter Mondale, of all people, Kamala Harris with the Al Smith dinner. And I don't think it's going to cost her any votes in an election this tight. So she made the right decision. But I think for anybody who likes old style politics, it is a turn of the page.
So well, well so if we consider what was actually said by Trump at the dinner, or what we've been hearing from Donald Trump in recent interviews, as recently as this morning when he was on Fox and Friends disparaging Nicki Haley talking about how resoundingly he defeated her in
the primary. Brittany, is this a would this be concerning if you were a member of his campaign, The way in which the tone the conduct is being displayed in the final stretches of a race where those undecided voters might just now be making up their minds.
Well, apparently not, because he continues to do it and they don't really play clean up on Aisle one anymore. I mean, I think that at this point in the race, we already know that he doesn't really care about those Haley voters. He's said it time and time again. Oh, there weren't that many of them to begin with, even today, to say like, oh, you know, she's already on the camping trail, which I don't know if that's true or not.
I don't know that I've seen her out there, but I don't think it's helpful at this point.
Does it matter?
Are those voters undecided? Have they decided to vote for Harris ride In or vote for him? It's going to be a mix of all three. But the one thing I'll also bring up, which is unrelated but still really interesting from that interview, is that he said Box some folks at Box News helped him write those jokes yesterday. And I think that's pretty alarming, and you know, probably shouldn't have been done. So it was a very illuminating interview for sure.
Well I don't know who the Republican is here Britney, but Donald Trump making some news earlier today in an interview we talked about at least considering the idea of a tax exemption no taxes on police, firefighters, and military. The instant question, of course, is how do you pay for it? But I wonder, as the conservative in this conversation, do you see that as any different than Joe Biden, for instance, for giving student loan payments.
As preparing to come on and I knew this topic would probably come up. That is exactly what I was thinking. I think it's an empty promise. I don't think anything is going to happen with this, though in theory, like maybe it makes sense. My dad is a retired officer. I remember growing up and thinking, oh, well, taxes we pay go to your salary, so why do you also have to pay taxes? And then I grew up and I learned the way that the economy works. I don't
think that it's going to work. We're already trillions and trillions of dollars in debt, aid of which he sank us into. So no, this isn't a very conservative policy at all. Though of course I'm so thankful for our first responders and our know, our military, our veterans and all of those folks.
Well, I think we all agree with you on that, Brittany Genie. As we considered the idea that this is not only a policy proposal that would have a fuzzy looking future if he actually wins the presidency, as he tries to get all of these things through Congress, it's also just worth questioning is it too late to be offering something like this with eighteen days to go, Genie, who's still paying attention to new policy ideas.
You know, I think he is throwing everything at the wall, seeing what sticks and hoping that it sticks.
It may be a little late.
Look at in the all important state of Michigan, for the first time, they're allowing early voting in a presidential election. We've already had one million people vote. So to your point,
it is getting late, but he keeps doing this. I think the more important point is that we really don't in Donald Trump, and I even think to a certain extent in Kamala Harris, I have to say, have somebody with the economic literacy and prower, we need to make these kinds of proposals, you know, for him to stand up there and say, just as an example, and then her follow suit, if you make forty thousand dollars in tips,
you won't pay taxes. But the first responder potentially next door making forty thousand will makes zero sense, not to mention, as you just said, none of this is going to get through Congress. So the sort of golf and economic literacy we're seeing all over this campaign is very challenging, and I do blame that on the party leadership, because you look, you do have senators and both sides who know that this is hogwash, it will never get through, who are saying, oh, we'll look at it when it
comes to us, if it comes to us. And so that's what we're getting. It's the oporization of politics. Everybody gets something, and in the end, the American people are going to lose out because this is not a serious discussion about the economy.
Brittany Kamala Harris is going to Michigan. I should mention that early voting starts tomorrow in Detroit. It's a pretty big part of the story. Trump will be in Detroit tonight. Kamala Harris will be there tomorrow. She's going to Lansing tonight to a GM plant that got big money, like a half a billion dollar grant from the IRA to convert from ice to EV cars. She's going to go there to call out Donald Trump for wanting to gut the IRA. Does anyone care?
I think we should care. You know, as a conservative, I don't think that was the best bill. I was working in Congress when that passed through the House and said it was signed into law. And so though I know the IRAM familiar with it. It's because I'm a professional wonk and I do that for a living. But I don't know that, you know, the average voter is
really paying attention to that sort of thing. But I mean, at this point in the race, two weeks out, I think you need to try and hit the other candidate on as much as you can, ensure there's a way to go about it and share personal stories and anecdotes, which I'm sure she'll do when she's at the plant.
Well, as we consider what the candidate is saying, it also in some sense, Genie is about what surrogates are saying too, and who else is out there in support of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. And next week we're going to see both Obama's campaigning in some of these swing states in Georgia and then Michigan in the case of Michelle Obama, and then she'll be holding a rally in Atlanta the week after that. How powerful a force are the Obamas at this stage in the race.
They're powerful.
We've got, you know, for Kamala Harris, she's got two former presidents in Barack Obama, who's been out and is coming out next week. As you mentioned again the very very popular Michelle Obama Bill Clinton on the trail. I've been following Bill Clinton, you know, makes a very good surrogate, particular lead to some of these rural areas. He's been out with Tim Walls, So it is very useful in
getting out the vote. But I think this late in the game, more important than the surrogates is the ground game and getting people to the polls, out to vote and vote early. And so that is where the campaign on the Democratic side has an enormos misadvantage is with the ground game. Of course, you've got Elon Musk on the other side trying to help the Republican side on that very issue, and they are right to target money there because this is all going to come out to turnout.
And so that's where the ground game matters more than anything.
I think at this point, who will be more effective genie at harnessing the power of the early vote. This is something that Donald Trump has confused a bit in terms of messaging, calling it stupid. The RNC has gone out of its way to encourage people to do this. Donald Trump seems to have come around on it. Are we going to see a major influx of GOP voters voting early.
I suspect we.
Will, and that's one of the big questions. Does his turnabout sort of yield that kind of response. And we are seeing some big early vote numbers in places like Georgia, So the numbers are coming in. We just don't know obviously how they're voting. So when we find that out, I think we will see an increase in Republican turnout early.
All right. Genie Shanzeno, Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Today alongside Brittany Martinez, founder of Aspina and Co. And Republican strategist our political panel on this Friday, Thank.
You so much.
It is Friday, you're here TGIF. As we are in these final weeks of the election, it does feel like each week has enough news to pack in two a month. And that doesn't just go for what's happening in domestic politics, it goes for geopolitics as well.
Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC. At noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com