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Two very important headlines across the terminal since we've come on the air at noon today, the Pentagon deploying a few thousand, as they term it, few thousand more forces to the Mid East, saying as well that they do believe that a possible ground incursion by Israel into Lebanon is imminent. Those two lines coming from a spokesperson at the Pentagon earlier today. And we're glad to have Natasha Hall back with a senior fellow with the Middle East
Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies CSIS. Natasha, welcome back. How important are the next twenty four hours here to determining the next phase and what appears to be a wider war.
I would say unprecedented, but I feel like we've been using that word a little too much in the past few months. We've just seen unprecedented attacks from Israel on Lebanon, including the assassination of longtime leader Caasan nos RelA in just the past forty eight hours, and now intelligence coming in that Israeli is launching ground incursions into Lebanon, and remains to be seen if this will be part of a larger ground invasion and really what the end end
of game is for this. Does it mean occupation of southern Lebanon as Israel has done before, So very very scary times up ahead, but I suspect that they will continue for the foreseeable future, and not just the next twenty four hours as Israel's adversary sort of recuperate and rethink their strategy, as they've suffered enormous losses in the past couple of weeks.
Well to that exact point, Natasha, it's not just Anzurala that has been killed, but a number of top commanders for Hesbela. Obviously, we saw the explosions earlier this month that took out waki, takies and pagers, things that they were using to communicate how capable is hesbola A fighting off a potential ground invasion that Israel may choose to pursue, or are they likely to be fortified or or more willing to go to drastic measures to retaliate because they've taken such heavy losses.
There's the short term game and then there's the long term game here. So I think that Hezbolah has a lot of territory to recuperate on, including in Syria where they have forces as well, But in the near term it will be very difficult for them to mount an attack on Israel. That said, if Israel decides to actually mount an invasion into Lebanon, they will be mounting an invasion into a country that Hasbulah has had about eighteen
years to prepare for. So we're talking about tunnel networks, we're talking about still tens of thousands of troops, and frankly, Israel's actions in the past year have created a really limitless supply of soldiers both in the region and beyond. So again I think it's more than the next twenty four hours that were witnessing very sort of scary escalation.
Sure sounds like it. And when we hear from the Pentagon Natasha that we're deploying what they call a few thousand more forces in the Mideast, is this about force protection for Israel. Are we concerned about this escalating to the point where we're going to have Americans actively involved in helping to defend Israel, whether it be in the air or on the ground. And who are these forces? What are they going for?
Well, it's not just these thousands of forces. There's two carrier strike groups that one in the Mediterranean and one in the Red Sea. So this is a very yes. So there's overwhelming force posture on behalf of the United States. I am guessing that the United States wants to avoid any kind of direct alliance with Israel on this, but will provide them with the necessary weapons, including the bomb that took out Hassan Nasralla just a couple of days ago.
So I think that the United States wants to avoid an escalation in which they will have to take part a direct part in as Iran has over the past few months. But it remains to be seen if they will be dragged into a more full fledged war. But I suspect that they will talk to US citizens on the ground throughout the region to evacuate and try to defend assets throughout the region as well.
Well.
We heard President Biden he was asked about this When speaking from the White House earlier today, he was asked if he was aware of and comfortable with Israel's plan for a limited ground invasion of Lebanon. He said, I'm more aware than you might know, and I'm comfortable with them stopping. We should have a ceasefire. Now. Do you see any incentive for Israel to agree to a short term ceasefire at this point or for Hesbola to do the same.
We've been hearing the same thing from the White House for months now on Gaza and on Lebanon, and supposedly US diplomats have been working tires tirelessly for a ceasefire on both fronts for months now, but we also haven't seen any kind of tangible leverage being used with Israel to get to that ceasefire. And it looks like we've just seen Israel escalate more and more each day, each hour, but very little on the US side to really curb or rein in Israel. In fact, as you mentioned, thousands
more troops being deployed carrier strike groups. It looks like they're defending Israel, that this is their war essentially, and so I think it remains to be seen if Israel themselves will take the decision and to launch a full scale ground invasion of Lebanon. But it does not seem as though the United States is willing to really reign in Israeli actions at this time or any time prior.
Well, you just answered my next question. As the administration attempts to influence the outcome here, Natasha, I'm curious as well about the day after Lebanon is not Gaza, and I wonder if Israel has a plan, if it were in fact to destroy or decimate, somehow eliminate Hesbela, a plan to deal with the nation that would be left over.
I mean, what we've been seeing is decimated countries. Lebanon, Yemen, the port in Yemen was recently attacked also by Israel, and Gaza. These are not territories that can withstand another humanitarian crisis or another conflict on top of everything else. And it doesn't really seem like there's a day after
plan for any of them. We've seen Israel and US officials talk about how Lebanese politicians could take this moment of weakness amongst Hesbala leaders to really take the helm in the Lebanese government for the first time in years or decades, but it remains to be seen how that plan actually plays out. Hesbala is still the most powerful force on the ground, and they will assassinate leaders that go against them, and they've been known to do so
in the past. So I think just calling on Lebanese leaders to stand up to Hesbalah is not going to be enough for a day after and we've already seen hundreds of thousands of people internally displaced, some of whom are actually going into war torn Syria right now for refuge.
Natasha. We have less than a minute left, But what do you expect Iran to do next?
Iran has been very disappointing, I would say, probably for Hesbalah at this time and many of its constituents. We have not seen any kind of real retaliation for many of the attacks that have taken place over the past few weeks and months, and I suspect that Iranian leaders are sort of scared to mount any kind of major retaliation. That said, there is a fear that if proxy militias are so weakened that Iran will look to turns from other means like the nuclear like their nuclear weapons arsenal.
Frightening to consider Natasha, thank you so much for joining us. Natasha Hall, Senior Fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Thank you so much. As we cast our eyes abroad, but we'll look here at home next at the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. Stay with us on Bloomberg TV and radio.
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I'm Joe Matthew at Bloomberg World Headquarters in New York. Kaylee Lines in Washington, d C. Will both be here tomorrow for the vice presidential debate, and we'll be talking more about that, of course, as we get a bit closer. With of course, a massive storm on our hands that
has left massive destruction. Helene, it appears will be on the mount rushmore of severe storms, and I don't mean that in a good way, joining Katrina and Sandy the top five most damaging storms, with Aciweather now estimating losses at one hundred and forty five to one hundred and sixty billion dollars. Kaylee, I suspect this is going to come up at the debate tomorrow night. It's of course impacting the campaign trail. Donald Trump is in Georgia today.
Yeah, he is. He will be in Valdst Valdusta, Georgia, and he of course has criticized both Joe Biden and Comba Harris for not being present in Washington while the storm and as aftermath were ongoing over the last weekend. Joe Biden was in Delaware, Harris was in California. Though both have said when it is not going to be disruptive to make a visit to affected areas, they do intend to do so later this week.
Joe, Well, i'll tell you what the scenes are horrifying with the level of damage, destruction and death that we've seen in Bloomberg's. Lord Rosenthal is watching this for us and joins me here in New York with a little bit more information before we bring in our panel for the political implications here. Lauren, it's great to see you. Thank you for joining when we're talking about the top five storms that really puts this in perspective, were we prepared?
I would say that a few days in advance we started to get warning from forecasters that this would likely be a very large and very powerful storm. But I think that communities far inland in the Carolinas and southern Apalachian Mountains were surprised by how much rain they got, and that's really responsible for a lot of the day damage.
Well, yeah, can you quantify the damage and destruction and frankly loss of life that we have seen to this point, Lauren, Over one hundred dead, still hundreds unaccounted for, I understand. And what kind of economic losses realistically are we looking at here?
Sure, a lot of homes and businesses are gone. I think as the waters received, rescuers are starting to get a sense of how many people are still unaccounted for, and the scope of the damage is becoming clear as well. There's been a lot of water treatment facilities lost, so folks are struggling to get access to clean drinking water. You know, lots of bridges in this really mountainous region, crisscrossed by tiny streams and rivers. All of that will need to be replaced.
You put your finger on something really important though, it's not just a matter of clearing out damage, moving tree limbs and so forth. Clean water is something we're going to be hearing a lot more about as we go deeper into this week, isn't it.
I think that's right.
With road access washed out or you know, highways just still inaccessible in underwater in some places, rescuers are trying to bring in supplies.
By air, and of course Joe and I will be actually speaking with the Transportation Secretary Pete boota judge about this on the later edition of Balance of Power at five pm Eastern time. And of course, as we consider how long it may take Lauren to recover from this particular storm, hurricane season is not yet over. Are there potentially more storms that could come and hit these communities? Once again, I.
Think, unfortunately that's not out of the question. We're heading into what's historically a very busy period in the hurricane season.
Right now.
Forecasters at the US National Hurricane Center are tracking three different storms or disturbances in the Atlantic. At least one of them, forecasters said today has the potential to become another very large and powerful storm, So that is definitely something worth keeping an eye on.
Absolutely all right, Lauren Rosenthal, a weather reporter for us here at Bloomberg, thank you so much. Now, of course, we did hear from President Biden at the White House earlier today addressing this storm and its aftermath, talking about how he might request supplemental funding from Congress. Here was the President earlier.
I quickly approved requests from governors of Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, and Virginia and Alabama for an emergency declaration, and I approved additional requests for the governors of North Carolina, Florida, South Carolina and for a disaster declaration to pay for debris removal, provide financial assistance directly directly to survivors.
And of course, the President also said, as we mentioned earlier, he does intend to visit affected areas later on this week, when it will no longer be disruptive to do so.
So.
On that note, we assemble now our political panel, Genie shan Zeno, senior Democracy fellow with the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, and Rick Davis Stone Court Capital partner, both of them Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick, just to begin with you, as it's not just Biden, but potentially Harris that will make a visit to affected areas in the coming days, when Donald Trump is doing
so today in Georgia. How should we consider the optics of this, of going versus not going, of making any of this political at all when so many lives have been affected.
Yeah, this is always a supercharged period of time. We've experienced these kinds of natural disasters during political campaigns and there's no good roadmap that tells you do these things and it's a safe harbor. Nobody should be trying to take advantage politically of a natural disaster, but they will be punished if they don't seem responsive enough. We all remember George W. Bush flying over the aftermath of the hurricane in Louisiana, looking disconnected from it. So there is
a timetable. I think that the President and Vice President Harris should be very respectful of the teams on the ground trying to recover, but also understand that the American public wants to see them on the ground. They want to see that the nation's leaders understand the importance of this historic storm killing over one hundred and fifteen people,
devastating communities Inland. Very unusual for a hurricane like this, and communities that are actually involved in voting right now are and two of the three states that were most affected are swing states in this election. So this is hypersensitive, and I think that I would suspect that the White House is trying to pay as much attention to this as any other issue in the world.
Well, it's not lost on us, indeed, Rick, that this storm landed on a couple of critical swing states and Donald Trump is in one of them today. In the case of Georgia, he's accusing Kamala Harris of sleeping. I believe it was Joe Biden sleeping on the beach.
He said.
Kamala Harris should have gone to North Carolina instead went to Washington. The local officials in these areas, specifically in North Carolina Genie, have made clear, don't come to Ashville. We have too much on our hands right now and a visit of this sort would be logistically extremely challenging. But Rick makes a great point. They're voting in these states right now, and people do often want to see their leaders in action. Sha Kamala Harris gas up the jet and go.
No, she should not go until local officials. State officials say that she's not going to disrupt the very important area in which they are working now, which is to get people clean food, clean clean water, food, and make sure they're safe. But can we just take a step back a minute and say, last week was Climate change Week in New York City, and what do we have. We have Donald Trump out on the campaign trail this
weekend calling climate change a hoax. We have him at the last debate calling climate change a hoak, and this weekend the biggest scam on Earth. And yet any scientists will tell you that climate change is the reason we are seeing the storms to this degree, this devastating, this loss of life. And Kamala Harris, by the way, is not far behind. While she agrees there's climate change, she
steps up in the last debate and supports fracking. So the reality is we need as a nation to listen to the scientists and experts who tell us that this is a threat to humanity, a threat to the planet. When we get warmer in our climate and the waters, there is no going back. And that's where we are at this point. So I think, you know, politics aside on all of this. It's sort of a pox on all of their houses. Let's get real on the issue that's affecting all of us and will affect our children
and our grandchildren, our planets, which is climate change. And we need to take the threat from the experts very very seriously. And neither side is doing that right now to the degree they should.
Well.
And it has been pointed out in the last several days that Project twenty twenty five would call for the downsizing of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAH, which of course is a tracker of these storms. We should know. Donald Trump has made it very clear that he has tried to distance himself from Project twenty twenty five, but
that has been a point of discussion this week. There's another element to this as well, and President Biden did speak to this at the White House when he was asked about a supplemental funding request of Congress. He was asked, are you going to need to call them back for a special session, because Genie, the lawmakers who have the power to secure more funding for the areas that need it aren't planning to be back in Washington until after
the election in mid November. Those are members who are running races as well trying to win them of their own. How does that look to your constituents if you aren't even in town to do the important work of helping areas recover from a devastation of a natural disaster.
Yeah, you know, I think they may have to be called back to do that, and I think representatives would
They certainly want to serve their districts. The President is absolutely right, more funding and needed, and I think we should say thank goodness that commer heads prevailed and we didn't see a government shutdown as Donald Trump was asking for last week over a bill that's not needed, because if that had happened, imagine where we would be now, which trying to get with trying to get relief these
needed areas. So we do need the federal government and we need those representatives to step in, and they're going to have to get off the campaign trail, and I think most will to do that important work.
If you want to see the politics of a natural disaster in real time, if you're with us on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube, check out the set for Donald Trump. This is Valdosta, Georgia once again where they have actually compiled, actually used bricks from a destroyed building behind them to create kind of a platform for the podium here. Rick, I don't know if you can see this, but this is a campaign that is being very deliberate about the optics in our remaining moment. Does it work?
Yeah, he could wind up getting some attention like what we're giving him about being in Valdosta. Hopefully it's not a distraction to the people who are trying to recover there. But look, it's not a bad thing for elected officials to point to whether or not there is an adequate federal response to disasters like this in the past.
There have been problems.
In fact, there were problems during the Trump administration and a very limited federal response to hurricanes in Puerto Rico, at which point you Donald Trump went and you know, throw toilet paper to the crowd. So it depends on how that event goes and what the message is that really matters. Just showing up is only half the agenda.
That's true. There's an opportunity to succeed as well as to fail. Here, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino or a signature panel. This is Bloomberg.
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New York of course also where we find Joe Matthew today, and while I'm in Washington for now, I'll be heading up there later on. And there's a reason for that. It's because the Big Apple is hosting the big event tomorrow night. New York City is where the vice presidential debate will take place between jd Vance and Tim Wallas, and of course will be on CBS, and it's going to look and sound perhaps a little bit different than the presidential debate we saw on ABC just a few
weeks ago. Joe, the moderators will not be fact checking, and the mics will be hot. Yeah the entire time.
What happened to the muted microphones? I thought that was the go forward, and Donald Trump isn't there. We do it a little bit differently, so I guess a little more traditional in that sense. But again, they're also going to be standing in a TV studio without an audience, which brings its own set of challenges. Here, Kayley for two very different candidate than Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Certainly jd. Vance has a bit more experience here. Tim Walls has been at least floating this idea that he's very nervous. Do you think he's gaming the crowd here or.
What maybe a little bit of expectation setting lowering the bar. We've seen that ahead of all of these debates to some degree, haven't we.
Yeah, he's told CNN he doesn't want to let Kamala Harris down. But they're both taking their own approaches at prep here. And it's where we start our conversation with Mick mulvaney. He's back with us, of course, the former acting White House Chief of Staff and the Trump administration for congressman, co founder the House Freedom Caucus, former director of the OMB. How come everyone always forgets that one? Mick, it's great to have you back before we talk strategy here.
It's good to see you on Bloomberg. Just broadly, do people care Normally in a presidential contest, this would not be the most watched event. What's going to happen tomorrow?
The short answer to your question is no, Okay, we care, We do listen if you consider yourself to be sort of politically engaged if you're a commentator, a pundent, whatever, I am. I have no idea. Yeah, we're gonna watch it to be able to comment. Maybe see, you know, listen, if you're curious about who the next president vice president United States is going to be, you might tune in.
But I think it's very much inside baseball. I don't think there's a single undecided voter who goes you know what, I'm on the sided between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. I think this vice presidential debate is going to be determinive for me in that process. I just don't I just don't see it. People don't vote based upon VP.
Well, I wonder, Mick, if that's people don't decide to vote for a ticket because of the vice presidential debate, But could they decide to vote against one? Is there an opportunity here for one of these two gentlemen to slip up?
I guess yes.
The answer is yes. If your question is is there more downside to a campaign ticket from doing these then there's upside? The answers yes, you know, someone goes off and says something completely outrageous or stupid. Can it reflect badly on the top of the ticket? Yes, it can, But I mean look back over the You know, we remember these for what we remember these for? When was it Lloyd Benson said? That wasn't John Kennedy did? Did that movie he votes? You know, we remember what Mike
Pence had a fly on his forehead? Is that movie he votes? We don't remember these for the deep policy sort of sort of discussions.
Made the fly really famous. Though, meck, I guess that means everyone's going to come pack in with a one liner tomorrow and eight they're going to try to do the Lloyd Benson moment. Right MIC's are going to be unmuted. This actually could be a little feisty.
Everybody's looking for their viral moment. And look, if I was a betting man on who I think might be better on their feet. And again, I know both these guys. I do not know j D nearly as well as I know Tim. I like both of these guys. I really liked Tim a lot. You know, we again we shared a locker or right next to each other in the gym for six years. He's a nice guy. But if I had to put money on who's going to be better on their feet with the Quippi one liners.
It's going to be JD. Why is that? Keep in mind one of the reasons they say that the Democrats hire Walls, but he's so good on interviews and on TV, but they haven't let him do many of those. Since he's been sort of picked as the VP, JD has, He's gone on unfriendly media outlets, and he's got a lot of tough questions. My guess is that JD Vance will not get a question tonight that he hasn't been asked several times tomorrow night, that he has been asked
several times. It's possible that Tim Walls is and if you get caught off guard or off balance, that's when those viral negative moments might spring up.
I am curious to hear more about your Jim Jim situation with now Governor Tim Walls, Mick, but uh, we did, Okay, No, Joe really wants to know.
Yeah, I don't, how so tell us more, Mick.
I need to hear this since since this is off the record, I know and you know no one cares. Absolutely. My line is that I've seen Tim Walls naked more than his wife has okay, so so yeah, we had the lockers next to each other in the in the house, Jim for six. He's a lovely guide. But I mean the listen. We can talk a long time another day about about how Democrats and Republicans actually behave towards each other in the house. It's not at all with the
media broad or broadly what have you think? We are friends, We still communicate with each other. I wish him well. I hope he loses.
How about that.
Fair enough? And that is a good a good reminder, Mike, if we could talk about the substance the issues some of these two will be uh debating. Uh, there's questions that are around things like say immigration, knowing that that has been a perceived with weakness for the Democratic ticket specifically. But jd. Vance has caught in a lot of flack in recent weeks for continuing to propagate a lie about
Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio eating cats and dogs. Does he need to disavow that on the debate stage tomorrow night, Mick.
I don't know what disavowing does I mean if there's damage, it's already been done. If you come in and disavow it. I'm not sure that that helps much, but you raise a good point of immigration. I'm not sure why Kamala Harris went to the border this week, and I know that's sent your question, Kaylee, but it ties into this larger issue. This is an issue that the Democrats are
weaker on than the Republicans. I equate it to her going to the border right before the election, so a couple of weeks before the election, to Donald Trump going to Pennsylvania and talking about nothing but abortion for an hour and a half. Why draw attention to the issues that are not your strength. I get it, it's a big deal in Arizona, it's a big deal in of Otter. She sort of has to go down there eventually. Maybe maybe she's insulating herself against the charge going forward that
she's never been to the border. But why the Democrats draw attention to it? I don't get it, because it's not an issue they are going to win on. They're doing better on the economy, by the way, according to the polling Dad, I still think they trailed Donald Trump pretty significantly on the economy, but the trend lines are good for them. So why they're not talking about that
or abortion or the other issues are good about. My guess is if Tim Walls gets an immigration question, he will mention exactly what you did, very briefly, and then try and pivot to something else, probably talk about how there was going to be a Senate bill that Donald Trump killed. That's the end of the discussion. What's the next question?
Well, Donald Trump is talking about the debate here. He posted on truth Social a little bit earlier, Mick, I will be doing a personal play by play of the debate tomorrow, he says, between the brilliant JD. Vance and the highly inarticulate Tim Walls, he uses a nickname that's not for the family show. I don't know if it were to come up in the locker room, He writes. I hope that cognitively challenged lion Kamala Harris will be listening.
And I mentioned that line because Donald Trump referred to her several times over the weekend as mentally impaired and mentally disabled. Mick, what do you make of this new line of attack and a culture that takes that charge pretty seriously.
Look, we all talk about charges taken seriously, so let's isolate on this. Was it a smart thing to No, I'm not sure. Sure. Look, if you've decided, and it now appears as if both campaigns have decided this is a turnout election, they're done. But that's not unusual. You focus on the middle, you focus in the middle, and then the last weeks you just make sure your voters get up and vote. I'm not sure what calling her names does to motivate his base. If anything, it probably
motivates her base to come out to vote against him. Again. You can sit in there and sort of second guest Donald Trump all you want to. He's been successful running for president, so he's going to tell you he knows what he's doing. But I just don't know who that adds because the right wing base is already upset about her and they're going to vote anyway. And is Trump just running the risk of motivating the base against him, which would be a bad thing. So look, we did
the same thing with John McCain. I remember talking him in the White House during twenty nineteen, getting ready to go in to twenty twenty. He's beating up a McCain after he died, and it's like, Boss, tell me the voter out there who wasn't with you who says, you know what, I wasn't with this Trump guy, but now that he's beating up on a popular, dead senator, now I'm going to vote for him. Maybe there are people out there who were with you and now look at
you and go, wait a second. I was going to vote for Trump, and now he's beating up on a senator I've voted for for thirty years. Maybe I won't vote and he loses Arizona by what ten or fifteen thousand votes? So I don't understand it, But again, he's going to do what he wants to do.
Well, fair enough, Mick, I think we certainly have seen that as we continually get reporting that advisors and people close to Trump are pushing him to talk about policy and he thinks the personal attacks are still working for him quite well. I want to go back to something you were saying though, about how you think Harrison Wall should be talking more about the economy as they seem to be on an upward trajectory, and how voters feel
about them handling that issue as of late. Knowing just a few minutes from now, we are expected to hear from the FED chair Jay Powell, who was set to speak at the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting
in Nashville. The FEDS cut rates, by and large, things are still looking like they're holding up, okay, even if we're starting to see softening in the labor market, and polling consistently shows, including our own with Morning Consult in the Swing states, that Harris's economic proposals are among the more popular economic proposals between the two candidates with voters. Does that mean Donald Trump needs to talk about the economy more or pivot to another issue to attack her on?
Now?
Now, I think again, if you're advising Trump and he's watching his look, I still think the argument is this, I was in charge for four years. Okay, she's been in charge sort of for four years. Which of those four years was better for you? That's the argument, right. I don't think anybody cares much about policies. I saw some of her summary policies and listen, they're not very deep. You know, they're a mile wat in an inch deep. They're very high minded, sort of helping the middle class.
I get that, that's what I expect from folks at this point in the election. But I think Trump can talk about the economy more. But he doesn't need to go into specifics, and certainly doesn't need to be introducing things that make his own base scratch their heads, like capping interest rates on credit cards. Holy cow, that's a gut punch to conservatives like me still voting for him.
But I mean, you got to wonder what the heck is going on inside the campaign when they roll out that policy proposal that level of specificity this close to the election. So look, look, she's trending in the right direction if I'm her. What I'm saying is, look, inflation is coming down. It's a true statement. What I really think it'd be interesting you talked about Jay Powell is just someone ask him, if things are so good, why'd
you cut fifty points? Fifty basis points? The only two times they've done that recently was during the global financial crisis and the beginning of COVID. So what did they see in the data that prompted them to cut fifty basis points? I'm not sure. Maybe somebody's asked that question not seeing the answer yet. But if I'm the Harris campaign, that worries me because that's what's in there that might
pop up between now and November. Oh and by the way, I think the answer might be this DOC strike that might start tomorrow. That could be the October surprise that was just sitting out for everybody to see. If that leads to supply chain If now in November, that can be a problem for the comment party.
That's an excellent point. Mcmulvaney, former OMB director, former acting chief of staff and the Trump White House, co founder of the Freedom Caucus, former congressman, thank you as always for joining us here on Bloomberg TV and radio. And that is an important point, Joe, as we await the words of Chairman Powell talk about the economy hanging in there for now, inflation being lower, you have a DOCS worker strike that potentially could disrupt supply chains, cost freight
rates to go higher. And of course we're dealing with potentially tens of billions of dollars in economic damage from Hurricane Helen that just rolled through the southeast YEP.
It's pretty remarkable. As we mentioned, five I believe billion dollars a day was the cost put forth by an analyst at JP Morgan Chase. The economic impact cannot be ignored here, Kaylee. And if you're looking at Kamala Harris as an incumbent. There is inherent political risk here with what's likely to happen tomorrow.
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We're talking again about a massive potential economic impact here, more than a dozen ports collectively handling about half of the imports that reach the United States at hand.
Here.
Thank you so much, Danny. We'll connect with Danny Berger a little bit later on in the broadcast. If you're listening to us here on the radio, I think we can all agree that that truck behind Danny was going in reverse. As we turn our attention to the campaign, I mentioned it's all about the hurricane today, and that is diverting attention from the presidential campaign from their travel schedules. And you're going to be hearing a lot more from
Donald Trump a little bit later on in Georgia. But we got another deluge of polls over the weekend and
we are kind of drowning in numbers right now. Now that gives us an opportunity on this Monday to pull up the jet just a little bit and get a thirty thousand foot view, and we love doing that with Cliff Young, upholster but also a political analyst and president of US Public Affairs at ipsoc's with us live from our Washington studios with a boltload of new data that might really reinforce the idea that not only is the
economy the number one issue in this campaign. I think we've established that with Cliff, but some strides being made right now by the Harris campaign and catching up with Donald Trump. Cliff Young, welcome back. Let's start broadly here in the baseline as we stare down the barrel of basically the final month, thirty six days to the election. We've established that the economy is going to be the number one issue. How are these two candidates doing when it comes to trust in handling the economy?
Yeah, the battle right now is about the framing of the economy, what does it mean and what does it mean to voters? And the two campaigns are at at sort of two different points of the spectrum on that. On the one hand, you have Trump and his campaign wanting to talk about inflation, wanting to talk about throw the bums out because of inflation, a very simple kind of contrast, and you have the Harris campaign trying to look forward, trying to talk about future economic opportunities for
all Americans. And this is the dispute today the campaign in my mind that when's this framing debate? When's this framing dispute will take the White House.
You have some really interesting numbers here, and it almost has to do with the way that you're asking the question about the economy. We can get really specific about inflation, for instance, or we can just talk about your financial well being. You've asked a couple of questions here, Cliff, and I'd love for you to walk us through this.
When looking at things you want in the next president, let's be specific about the way you're asking in your poll, which of the following is most important to you building an economy that gives every American a chance to succeed. Twenty one percent chose that number one issue here, and it's D plus twenty three in the margin favoring Kamala Harris. When you ask the question which of the following is
most important to you. And in the case of inflation, here getting costs and inflation under control comes in at seventeen percent. But that's advantage Donald Trump plus thirty three. How do you rationalize those two?
Yeah, two things can can exist in people's head at anyone given time. But this goes back to my initial point the campaign that the election will be decided upon who best frames the issue of the economy. As we can see, the number one issue today for Americans is the economy written large. If it's framed in the hair on the hair side, that you're looking towards the future, looking for a greater opportunity for all Americans, she will
take the election. If Donald Trump is successful and he puts it in terms of of change election where inflation has really affected negatively Americans, he will take it. And the data just reinforces that overall point.
So with the advantage that we've seen, sort of turning to Kamala Harris on this issue, either closing the gap, catching up with, or in some cases, topping Donald Trump within the margin of error specifically on the issue of the economy, then suggests that she's doing a better job framing this issue. That's that is your point when it comes to messaging to voters.
Yeah, I would say today the Hairs campaign is much more effective at framing the issue of the economy than the Trump campaign is. Now. Obviously we have some time to go, but at this point, right now, the Hairs
campaign is much more effective. And I would just add to that point, it was because because of the sequence of events, the assassination attempt, the historically bad debate by and stepping out, that gave a moment for voters to reflect, to pause, and to think about who they're going to vote for, and Harris and her campaign were much more effective at filling that vacuum.
Okay, so talk to us about the debate tomorrow night. Then we've got the running mates. Granted, they probably will not have the baffo ratings that we saw the presidential candidates at sixty seven million viewers, but they're going to have a real opportunity here to talk to a lot of Americans, and I suspect that it will involve more than being weird and eating house pets when it comes to policy. When it comes to the economy, do either of the running mates have an opportunity to make a dent.
Yeah, I would say, I would say perhaps on the margins, typically not. But I often look at debates as a metaphor for the relative efficacy of each campaign. I'll be looking for who is more on message, who is more able to hammer home the economy issue, who is more able to frame to their advantage the issue of economy as laid out in our conversation here. So I'll be
looking for those things specifically. Whether that has an impact on the actual polls themselves, probably not, but it will say a lot about the relative efficiency, again, of each campaign.
What do you make of this opportunity if I can call it that, and I'm not trying to sound cold, it's an opportunity to succeed or fail if you're a presidential candidate dealing with a major natural disaster like we have right now in the southeast. Donald Trump's making a bee line to Georgia. He's criticizing Kamala Harris for not doing the same. But if you don't do this right, of course, it can be a detriment to your campaign.
And I wonder to the extent that it implies competency for the candidate, how important.
This is Yeah, this goes directly to whether a candy looks and acts presidential. So both Harris as well as Trump have to behave as such, there's really more downside than upside when it comes to a hurricane. Indeed, Americans people understand that a hurricane's an act of God. No one, individual, government or otherwise can stop it. It's about how you react to it, and that's what Americans will be looking for in their two possible presidential candidates.
As we spend time with Cliff Young from IPSOS, let's get to it now. I'm scrolling through this very impressive deck of research that you've given us, our bespoke deck from Cliff, and as you get down to one of the final slides here there is a headline the day after and a mushroom cloud. Cliff, how worried are we about accepting the results of this election, the noise and
the confusion that's going to follow. And I ask you that knowing that based on history, we'll probably see Donald Trump declare victory early in the night.
Yeah, that's a great point. And obviously this is something at IPSOS we're worried about, and I think the market in general is and the public opinion polling is pretty clear on the issue. For the most part, across pitical lines. A Maakans are willing to accept the results, you know, super majority of support high seventies, low eighties, independent of political stripe. As I said, however, Republicans are much more
likely to believe that the results weren't fair. And that's sort of the tale of our world today, that we have a very divided America, two sides of the fence. See, the issue is completely different. But at the very least super majority of Americans would accept, or at least they say they would accept the results of the election.
I'll tell you what if it ends up being that Saturday, for instance, like it was four years ago. Just in our remaining moment, Cliff, how worried are you that people have short memories that might not remember that counting mail and absentee ballots takes a long time, that some states might take days to settle.
Yeah, the counting and the time it takes to count really undermines the credibility. Indeed, America is an outlier compared to other democracies in the world that had those counts done the same. And so if this draws out too much, and indeed it's going to be a very close election in my mind, and it probably will. That doesn't help the credibility of the outcome. That only can hurt it.
I always love it when Cliff comes to hang out and spend some time with great research here, Cliff, thank you so much. Cliff Young at ipsos with us live from Washington on the fastest show in politics. He's been a great voice of authority on this campaign from the beginning.
We've got a month ago here.
Thank you, Cliff. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.