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We got the first confirmation of who will be close to the forty seventh president last night when Trump announced in a statement that Susie Wiles will be his chief of staff, the first ever female White House chief of staff in American history. She, of course, one of the
architects of his successful campaign this cycle. And we just got some more news from the Financial Times reporting that Robert Leitheiser, who of course was the US Trade Representative in the first Trump administration, has been asked back to take that job again as he builds out his cabinet. The Financial Times also reporting that Robert O'Brien, who served as the National Security Advisor during the first Trump admin will not be returning, but again, according to the ft Lightheiser will.
Be yeah reprising his earlier role, having also expressed interest in serving as Treasury Secretary. There are a lot of names around that job We talked to one of them yesterday in Senator Haggerty, the Republican from Tennessee, didn't have much to say on that front. But one of the names being considered here on a list that we're going to talk about here with Laura Davison, Bloomberg Politics editor, is joining us off the top here from Washington, d C.
With her eyes on the transition. Laura, it's great to see you. We just checked one name off the list here, Lightheiser, second round.
What do you think?
So this really suggests that the aggressive trade policy that Trump had in his first term, he's ready to do that.
Plus some we already know.
That he wants to do across the board tariffs of ten percent, perhaps up to sixty percent from imports from China. So the fact that this is one of the earliest names coming out right after White House Chief of Staff indicates that this is a top priority for Trump. We know that, you know, day one, day two, day three, he wants to start on this tariff policy. This is something he doesn't need Congress, he doesn't need the agencies.
He could do by executive action, and so we should anticipate to see that, you know, come January twenty something.
Well, so this would be a return act, obviously, Laura, do we have an understanding of who else from the first Trump admin might be returning for the second go around, knowing that a lot of people who were close to Donald Trump from twenty sixteen to twenty twenty are no longer. So yeah, and there's a lot of folks who Trump has said, you know, if he had to do it again, and now he you know, is doing it again, he would not have hired.
He's suggested that was one of the mistakes. You know, folks like Rex Tillerson. There are other people that we may see, names like Mike Pompeo are back in the mix. You know, of course he was Secretary of State and CIA.
Other people on the national security front, people like Rick Grinnell may be back in the fold. You know, this is all being worked out and down at mar Alago. Trump is taking a bunch of meetings with a bunch of folks are there at mar Alago, hanging out in Palm Beach waiting to see if they can get a little bit of FaceTime with the President. Wiles and you know, potentially Elon Musk, who's also reportedly down there well, that's got to.
Be quite a party.
You mentioned the form Secretary of State, suggesting he might be Secretary of Defense this time around, Secretary Pompeo and Senator Marco Rubio's name continues to emerge for a potential state role. Does that sound realistic to you? Knowing that would create another seat to fill?
Yes, in the Senate, it's much easier. You hear there's a Republican governor, Rondo Santis. Of course he could appoint someone to fill Marco Rubio's seat. Someone else who we may see is Doug Bergham, governor North Cota governor, who was also a vice presidential contender like Rubio. Where it gets tricky is with these House appointments. There's a bunch of House members, folks like Brian jack Elis Staphonic Mike Walls,
who are interested in jobs. Because we don't know yet know the size of the majority Republican majority, or if there will be a Republican majority at all, there's a lot of concern that if they pull people from the House to some of these cabinet level jobs, that it means that Republicans either won't have a majority or at least not a big enough one to get through the policy agenda. So folks who are in the House are being told that their candidacy is a little bit on ice right now.
While that all being sorted in.
The House, we're also getting some more reporting from the Financial Times about the potential Commerce secretary. Apparently Trump is likely to offer that job to Linda McMahon, who of course ran the Small Business Administration during his first admin. So that would be another familiar face according to the FT.
As we consider this transition process, knowing we have heard from both the loser in this presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harrison, President Biden himself yesterday pledging a peaceful, smooth transition of power, do.
We have a sense of the extent to which the.
Trump transition team really wants to be working with the incumbent administration, knowing their skepticism around the General Services Administration, the US intelligence agencies. Could this still be tricky?
Yes, this could be very tricky, and so the public posture, you know, the statements from Trump and his team have been very positive and warm to the president. They've accepted Biden's offer to come to the White House and meet, but behind the scenes there is concern about, you know, the sort of the FBI running some of the background checks. The team hasn't yet you know, signed on to use federal buildings for the transition. This is all being run out of mar A Lago. They've not yet taken federal
government money. So this is there's still a very much a rift between where the Trump team is and you know, sort of integrating back into the federal government.
It's really fascinating. Should we expect that to change?
Or is that the way this goes simply move everybody into the administration once Joe Biden leaves. And to that end, is there going to be the traditional welcoming of the family in the on the South Portico They're going to have breakfast together before the inaugural or does that just sound like comedy right now?
We'll see how that goes.
Biden, at least publicly has sort of indicated that he wants to have this peaceful transition of power, do you know, do everything, sort of buy the book and that would be sort of the traditional way of doing it. It's also noteworthy to note that, you know a lot of the people that that Trump wants to.
Bring in may not be able to be confirmed. So this is sort of one of the things that's being discussed.
If you know, if they can't be confirmed by the Senate or maybe can't pass a background check, you know, what are sort of the ways that that Trump could bring these people into special advisor roles in the White House that don't involve sort of the normal govern apparatus.
Well, that confirmation will get easier, presumably with every additional Republican Senate seat in the majority. Laura, Obviously, fifty three is where we stand right now. It's unclear whether or not that's going to be expanded via Arizona or Nevada. But how much does that matter that this isn't a fifty one forty nine Senate we're looking at.
It gives Republicans in the Senate a lot more room for error. They can lose some of these more moderate members Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, they don't have to support some of the more controversial or far right nominees and they can still pass through. So this gives Trump and his team a lot more leeway of who they can bring forward. You know, they just need a simple majority, and you know, when you look at the roster of Republican senators, the vast majority are.
Very closely aligned with Trump.
All right, Bloomberg Politics editor Laura Davison, thank you so much. As I alluded to you, right now, the Senate as it stands is fifty three forty five fifty three, of course, the size of the Republican majority at this time. The House, though Joe, remains too close to call. Right now, Republicans have won two hundred and eleven seats, Democrats one ninety nine. There are y five left to be called, and of course it takes two hundred and eighteen to have a majority.
This still could go either way.
I think favored Republican right now, but as we warned everyone on Tuesday, California is going to end up deciding this in Kaylee, we just have no idea when that's going to be done.
Yeah, it could take some time still, but we want to get a check in on sentiment within the Democratic caucus in the House. And turn to Florida Congressoman and former DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who is joining us now here on Bloomberg TV and radio. Congressoman, thank you so much for your time. Could you just share with us what you're hearing from your leadership in the House the degree of confidence or not that is being projected.
Helly and Joe, thank you for having me.
And you know, what we're focused on right now with twenty five seats still outstanding in terms of the election result, is making sure that every vote is counted. And you know, we've seen in the past efforts to you know, try to cast doubt on the counting process in the West, on the West Coast in particular, there are a lot of mail ballots. Washington State, Arizona, Oregon actually conduct all or nearly all of their elections by mail, and California
has postmarked by election day. So we've got a long three day weekend with Veterans Day on Monday, so we have a little bit of time before we're going to know how this plays out. And we have to just make sure that ballots are cured because people have an opportunity when there's been a mistake that's been made to fix their ballot so that their intention is clear.
And so in America, we've got.
To make sure that we've followed the law and make sure that every valid boat has an opportunity to be counted.
Well.
I don't want to walk you into too much speculation here, but I do wonder if Democrats take control of the House, and that is going to be the scenario where we have a split Congress and a Donald Trump administration on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, what would be the role of what I presume would be a very thin majority, not unlike Republicans have right now. Would it be one of insurgency, would it be the party of no What would Democrats consider their role in government to be?
Well, if we do have an opportunity to serve in the majority, as you said, it would be with a slim majority, and that's the situation that the Republicans have now. Regardless, it would be a slim majority either way.
We've had a lot.
Of success as Democrats in the minority with the Republicans only having a five and then a four seat majority and being able to make sure that we were the party of normalcy.
I mean they couldn't because they can't.
Haven't been able to get out of their own way and even pass legislation with a majority. They've needed Democrats to be able to not shut the government down. They've needed Democrats to be able to not crash the economy into a cliff by lifting and lift the debt ceiling. We've had so many things that have happened as a result of Democrats being Team normal because Republicans were Team extreme. That will particularly be important with Donald Trump and the
White House. If we have the majority, we're going to need to make sure that we are the backstop to stop mass deportations, to stop him from bringing to a screeching halt all of the progress been able to make.
Well on the subject of Donald Trump. Congresswoman, we are getting some breaking news just crossing the wire here at the US Special Council. Jacksmith has officially asked the courts to pause the prosecution against Donald Trump. He will announce
plans for Trump's case by December second. Keeping in mind here there were two federal cases against Donald Trump, two indictments, one in Washington, DC related to results of the twenty twenty election and the attempt to subvert them, another in your state of Florida, the Classified Documents case, Congresswoman, Largely, this move from Jacksmith was expected. The DOJ has a policy that says president of the United States shouldn't be prosecuted,
but I do wonder your reaction to this news. Keeping in mind already he has become a convicted felon in a state case, but federal is different.
That's right.
The thirty four account felonies that he's been convicted of at the state case, and there's still a sentencing that awaits him.
The federal cases, let's remember.
Include that Donald Trump incited an into insurrection on January sixth, and that he egregiously violated the federal law and took home and refused to turn over as the law requires, vital intelligence documents that he hoarded and that he showed off.
So it is essential to our.
National security that these cases be able to play out. But we do have Supreme Court decisions that established immunity, so those limitations exist, and it's going to have to be sorted out on the federal cases that remain. The state case is I think something that we're going to have to keep an eye out on. Certainly, Donald Trump had his day in court, was convicted on all thirty four counts by a jury of his peers, and a sentence should hold him accountable.
Congresswoman, should President Biden pardon Donald Trump before he leaves the White House.
I'm not going to be here and tell President Biden what he should do. I personally don't think there should be pardons coming in these cases. These are very very serious crimes that he's committed. The cases should play out under the rules that the Supreme Board has structured, and so no, I don't think that that President Biden should be pardoning him. President Biden, I know we'll be focused on trying to make sure we can continue to finish our agenda strong continue to bring down the cost of
prescription drugs through the continued negotiation. After the Inflation Reduction Act successfully brought down the cost of so many prescription drugs, that has to continue.
We have to continue to make sure we.
Bring the Chips Act implementation forward because as Speaker Johnson clearly indicated that they were going to look at trying to repeal that that would be outrageous. We need to make sure that we manufacture computer chips in the United States, continue to create those homegrown jobs.
So we have a lot to do while the lame Duck Session is in.
Session well and in the remainder of Biden's presidency. Congressman, I don't have to tell you that there is within your party. A lot of blame being cast on Biden for not stepping away from his reelection campaign as sooner you, of course, used to chair the DNC. We can, I
guess Friday morning quarterback this all we want to. I wonder though, if you can diagnose what went wrong in this cycle and what the Democrats need to do differently in the midterms in twenty twenty six and then looking forward to twenty twenty eight.
I've been through a lot of aftermath analyzes in the post election losses, and one thing that we need to not do is fingerpoint. The blame game is inappropriate. Look, we have to face some hard realities here. We had tremendous accomplishments under President Biden.
We have the strongest.
Economy in the globe post but we failed to connect, obviously with a lot of key constituencies that were previously supportive of Democrats, and we've got some work to do that. I know we're going to come together as a family and focus on under Hockem Jeffreys remarkable leadership, whether he is the Minority leader or the Speaker of the House
of Representatives, and I still think that's possible. We need to come together with our other Democratic leaders on the leadership team that I'm proud to be a member of and do an analysis. And we have to make sure that we focus on the priorities of the American people. That the diffuse communications system that exists today made it uneable for us to penetrate.
We have to make sure people know we understand the challenges that they face.
When I was on the campaign trail, Kayley, you know, I still hear from people about the price of groceries. We cannot let grocery companies not pass on savings that they are clearly feeling in the retail at the retail level, and we have to make sure that we're listening to people and responding about the impact of the remaining dreads of inflation.
That still exists.
Congressim and Kayley recalls your time when you chaired the DNC, and we all remember shortly after twenty twelve, the autopsy that the Republican National Committee put forth.
It was one hundred page report.
Remembered Ryan's previous said, we're going to put our cards face up on the table and better appeal to Latino American voters. That was part of the outcome of this election that in some cases Latino's broke for Trump, and I wonder your thoughts on why we only have a couple of minutes. I don't want to set you up here for too much of a dissertation, but what would your autopsy say today?
I represent a very large Hispanic constituency in my congressional district and that outreach is absolutely critical.
I wouldn't say that the Republicans under Trump have done such a good job.
Allowing someone to call the the island of Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage right before election day probably wasn't the best way to show that they support Hispanics. But we have to recognize Hispanics are a multi ethnic population. They can't be treated as one size fits all and you can only talk to them near an election, and that's something that we have to get to work on. And we have to make sure that we're talking to
them about their priorities the economy, education, healthcare. That's top of the list. And then we also obviously have to deal with immigration challenges and some of the other things that are more uniquely specific to the Hispanic community as well.
We're going to do that and more Congress.
Congress will be great to have you back. W Wasser Minchell of Florida. Appreciate the conversation and have a great weekend, Kayley. With breaking news today. This is going to be one of these days with races breaking and news on the transition, with more headlines crossing the terminal.
Yeah again, the Special Counsel Jack Smith asking the court to pause the prosecution against Donald Trump. Jacksmith, of course overseeing the two federal cases against Donald Trump. The state cases are another matter. As we discussed with the congresswoman.
He's already a convicted felon based off of the state case in New York around falsifying business records, but his team is also pushing for the other state case, the racketeering case in Georgia, also related of course to the results of the twenty twenty election, to be tossed as well. So we'll continue to keep track of these developments. Get reaction from our signature political panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno right here on Balance of Power Live from New York on Bloomberg TV and read.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on applecarplay in Enroudoto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
The election, of course, is over, but we are still dealing with breaking news as it comes in pertaining to the outstanding Senate and House races, but also pertaining to the ongoing legal cases at least for now against the President elect Donald Trump. But news breaking just moments ago Joe that the special counsel Jack Smith has asked the federal judge overseeing specifically the election interference case against Donald Trump to cancel all upcoming court deadlines in a step toward.
Dropping the case.
I guess we'll be making a filing on December two. Kind of an anti climactic finish. It appears to be for this massive effort that Jack Smith put together in these two cases. And we're joined right now on this breaking news by Bloomberg Legal reporter Eric Larson, who's been covering this since the very beginning.
Eric, this is how it ends.
Yeah, I mean, we will see what the judge says, but the writing was on the wall as soon as Trump won the election, and just a few days ago, of course, we learned that the Justice Department was already looking into ways to make these two cases go away. And of course it is a result of this Justice Department, long standing Justice Department policy that you can't prosecute a
sitting president. Of course Trump is not president yet, but they want to get these cases, I think, out of the way before his inauguration, and this is the first step in doing this.
Well, of course, it's too late for one case against Donald Trump already eric in the falsifying business records case here in New York, he already was convicted on all thirty four felon accounts, making him a convicted fella. He's supposed to be convicted, or rather sentenced in that case on November twenty six, just a few weeks from now. Is that still going to happen.
Well, as of right now that that date is still on the books, but you can expect that Trump's lawyers are going to make a strong push to prevent this sentencing from going forward. Of course, he faces as long as four years behind bars for these crimes. And even though most legal experts have said that he would probably get far less than that, or even just probation. I don't think going to want a judge to be able to issue any kind of sentence at all before the
president elect takes office. So just a mere threat that it could be a sentence of incarceration that would hang over him as he takes office would be the argument that they would make about interfere with a president's constitutional rights and interfere with his ability to do the important work of office.
All right, Bloomberg's Eric Larson, thank you so much for jumping on the phone with us as we handle this breaking news. Appreciate your time. And of course there's another case to consider here as well, Joe another state case, the one brought against him and many other defendants in Georgia, also related to efforts to overturn the twenty twenty election. That's the rocketeering case that the DA Fulton County Finnie Willis has brought. It's unclear how that moves forward.
The Trump team would like it not.
To, that's for sure.
And we have to remember that even if there was a Biden pardon, that doesn't apply to state level cases. So it's an interesting component here to this whole story. Remarkable though, just within days of this election turnout. We're having this conversation right now. I want to bring in
our signature panel. Rick Davis, Stone Court, Capital partner, Republican strategist and Genie Shanzano, political science professor at Iona University, Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress?
Is this how you saw it ending?
Yeah, this is how it should end. I mean, the Justice Department should move forward with dropping these charges. Their long standing prohibition against prosecuting a president should apply to a president elect. It is unhealthy for the democracy and I hope that Alvin Bragg, the DA in Manhattan, is able or the just judges in New York are able to put that to rest as well, because we do have to move forward and this cannot continue. You cannot do democracy in the courts. It has to be decided
at the ballot box. He won and we have to get behind him and move forward.
Rick could another way of viewing this is the Justice Department abiding by what the will of seventy four million Americans is.
Yeah, Well, you don't want to just trust seventy four million Americans to decide what is legal and what is not legal, right, No one should be above the law, and sitting presidents don't have immunity against their personal acts, right, So just to put it in that context, but it is not healthy for democracy to be chasing after former presidents or current presidents. You know, four things done not
related to their official acts of the presidency. So I think we should have all learned our lesson on this. You know, the indictments of Donald Trump buoyed his campaign in the primary when other people were running against him, and in assuming those things were all done for the right reason, it was because of the normal course of the legal system. We really did bend the political dynamic here by having all this legal activity around Donald Trump during a presidential year.
I s W.
Wasserman Schultz'll ask you, should Joe Biden pardon Donald Trump?
No, you know, I don't think so. I would hope that.
That'd be good for the sake of the democracy.
You know, I don't think he needs to pardon him. I think the Justice Department does what Jack Smith is asking them to do, and in these state cases, the New York and Georgia, which are very different cases, they move forward as well and ensure that there is no issue involving prison or anything else, and let's put this behind us. I don't think we need to see Joe
Biden doing a pardon. And I do think it's a reminder that what Mitch McConnell said during the impeachment and then the trial of that this should be handled in the courts was dead wrong. These are political decisions, and he should have stepped up if he thought Donald Trump was guilty, which he said he did, and he should have brought Republicans along to remove him from office at that point, not throw this to the judiciary.
Well, but when we consider the future of the judiciary, obviously donald Trump, we don't know who it is yet we'll be able to point his own attorney general will have a new looking Department of Justice, and we should point out consistently during his campaign Whrick he talked about weaponizing that against his political opponents and the way he felt it had been weaponized against him in all of
these cases, this retribution tour. Should we still expect that to happen or if they go away, does this all move into the quiet?
Oh well, we'll never know, right, I mean, I don't think you can predict an outcome on anything in a prospective administration, whether it's Donald Trump's or anybody else's. That being said, I thought Mitt Romney had to write concept eight months ago, you know, before this campaign really heated up, and said that the President Biden should have pardoned him
at the time these charges were brought. In other words, you know, why wait till all of this unfolds and all this negativity takes hold in our society when it would have been appropriate for one president to pardon another this has happened before. The last thing we should be doing is prosecuting for if there's any shade of political motivation to it, are leaders. And so if you want to healthy democracy, you got to take a step back from this kind of lawfair.
Well, as Donald Trump watches all of this unfold, he's not waiting around to find out. He's going ahead with the transition and reaching out to world leaders.
There was a phone.
Call, as we already talked about, with President Zelenski of Ukraine, and there's reporting today, Genie that Elon Musk was also on that call. Of course, the Starlink service has I guess something to do with the conversation here about the way forward in Ukraine. But what does that mean for what this administration is going to look like in the role that Musk will play, because it seems like a pretty big one.
Yeah, I mean out of Tuesday night, in addition to Donald Trump, the big winner there was Elon Musk, and that is very clear. He was at this speech at mar A Lago on Tuesday. Wednesday morning, he is on the phone with his Lelensky and we assume other world leaders. He has said he will take some kind of role, not necessarily a cabinet position, certainly in the administration. So he has a big role to play. And I think it's going to be the job of the investigative press
to be the watchdog. We hope that they are, and to follow what is happening, because this is somebody whose business in life benefits enormously from billions of taxpayer dollars.
So whether or not Elon Musk is in the cabinet remains unclear, but we are getting more reporting on what that cabinet could look like from the Financial Times this hour. Rick, you guessed this last night when we were on balance of Power. Apparently he's looking at Linda McMahon, the former a small Business Administrator for Commerce Secretary Robert O'Brien, who was NSA or National Security Advisor during the Trump aadmin, will not be coming back, but coming back for a
second round. US Trade Representative Robert.
Robert Leitheiser the probably the sharpest protectionist in the Republican Party, and he, you know, as far as Donald Trump was concerned, he did it exactly the right thing in his first term, organizing the terraf regime against China and others. So we can expect a lot of that to happen again. Look, I think one of the things we're going to be surprised about is that there aren't going to be that many big surprises, you know, around Donald Trump's selection of
people for his cabinet or his sub cabinet. You know, it's a trust relationship there, and these are all talented people. I mean, Lenna McMahon, you know, really did a fabulous job at the Small Business Administration, especially as COVID started to take a hold. So I think we can anticipate a professional cabinet, but one that is intensely loyal and so you know, and look, I mean I think the jury's out right now. We don't know what role Elon Musk is going to take. But Elon Musk has has
reformed the space program, satellite program, infrastructure development. I mean, we could do worse than to have someone like him sitting now the president when he's making decisions. That being said, we'll see where he winds up if there is an official position for him.
It's a former lawyer for the US steel industry, which kind of gives us an interesting backdrop for the Nipon proposed acquisition of US Steel, which obviously Donald Trump doesn't want to see happen. But what is disappointment He hasn't accepted it yet. Suggest about Trump two point.
Zero, You know, I think Trump two point zero in this way, I think is not going to be like you know, unlike Trump one point zero. He didn't have much use for the cabinet beyond some critical positions. He left a lot of that to his folks, and his one number one demand was loyalty and assisting him and
fulfilling his promises. So I think that's what we are seeing here, and I think you know what we're hearing also is that those people who cannot make it through Senate confirmation, and there are some, are going to be put into the White House as officials. So I think we're going to see a movement of officials who can get through confirmation going that route to the cabinet all of the other ones, and we know their names are
going to be put in the White House regardless. And I do think on Elon Musk, we have a system of checks and balances. We do not anoint somebody to fix infrastructure and everything else without those checks. So he is brilliant and he does a lot, but he also needs to be checked.
We know their names. Steve Bannon, who are you talking about?
Oh, well, we know their names, right, Steve Bannon. You can think about I mean, we can think of a whole host of people. We know some of those people. You know, when you think just about Steven Miller on the issue of you know, trying to, for instance, work on his number one promise, which is deportation, that is Stephen Miller's game. He won't make it through a Senate confirmation, but he'll do it once again from the White House.
Well, it'll get easier with every additional senator in the Republican majority. Right right, there's still two races outstanding.
Still two races outstanding.
I think we're at fifty three, so yeah, I mean, I don't think additional races will matter other than you know, comfort going forward when you need to get a closure vote for sixty. So the real question is for fiscal issues, whether or not Republican majority will hold in the House. I think we're going to be waiting around till California counts all their ballots, so that could be weeks before we actually know the content of Congress.
Ho about Arizona, You've got people on the ground there. When are we going to get a call for the Senate race? I think very soon.
They are fifty forty five thousand votes still uncounted. Most of those are in Maricopa County, and the way Maricopa County releases things, it's in the order of which they came in. So last night, for instance, we got a release from people who dropped off ballots on election day. They didn't vote on election day by walking in and casting a vote. They voted by just turning in their
ballot like they mailed it that same day. So those were counted, and you know, Republicans picked up a little bit, So we'll see.
Maybe we'll find out while we're in the late edition, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano, thank you so much.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then Proudoro with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
In Arizona, which hasn't been called at the presidential level, I would add though Donald Trump obviously is leading it at this stage in the count and it ultimately won't matter for electoral college purposes. But in the Senate race, it's actually a bit tighter than many people and dissipated Reuben Diego, the Democratic candidate, only up right now by one and a half percentage points on the Republican candidate Kerrie Lake with seventy seven percent of the vot's counted.
Very interesting to see what the next job from Maricopa County brings and whether this race is called over the weekend. We knew Arizona would take a long time, but this is one.
Of the last two.
So let's go to an expert on Arizona politics now joining us as Samara clar She's professor of Political Science at the University of Arizona. She's also co author of the book Partisan Hostility and America Democracy, Explaining political divisions. Samaraw, thanks for coming back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Last we spoke was in the wee hours in the aftermath
of the election on Wednesday morning. When we look at this Senate race, this tight margin between Diego and Lake, knowing Diego was pretty consistently with a healthy lead on Lake in the polls, what are you thinking here?
Is there a chance Lake pulls us out?
I mean, there's a chance. It hasn't been called.
Geygo's maintained his league throughout the account and you know, we still I think we're now at seventy eight percent, seventy nine percent reporting he's up by a point and a half. Anything could happen. That's why it hasn't been called. They won't call it till they know for sure. I know it looks as though, you know, he's still obviously outperforming Harris, who is more significantly behind Donald Trump. That, as you mentioned, hasn't been called either, but it is
sure to be called for Trump now. There we knew there was a percentage of Trump voters who were going to be voting for Gego. It looks as though that did happen. The question is how many of those Trump voters stuck with that decision and decided to vote for Gyego. How many of them may be decided to not vote in the Senate at all. But we won't know until this thing.
Is all done.
Well.
Based on where we are in the count here, is there still a path for carry Lake to win?
From last I checked it to but a point and a half and there's but twenty percent votes coming in.
It's possible.
If we're impossible, they would have called it already. I think that it looks unlikely. I mean, it looks as though Gayego will most likely hold on to the lead, but we don't know. I mean, Arizona is a state where candidates win by incredibly tiny margins. I mean, in our house race right now, I believe Christian Engel is ahead of Sisco Moni by just.
A couple hundred votes. So this is the Arizona way. Every single vallat has to be counted before we know for sure.
That's the Arizona way. What about the Carrie Lake Way? Samara? We all remember her failed gubernatorial bid in which she never actually accepted that she lost the race.
How would we expect.
It to go down if indeed this is ultimately called for guyego with the story Necessarily they're based off of what we've experienced in the past.
Well, listen, we know that Carrie Lake did not accept that defeat in twenty twenty two against Katie Hobbes. I think things are a little different now and that Trump has won, and he probably doesn't want to be part of a real the election is rigged, a narrative that doesn't really benefit him, and I think there probably is a little lot less of an appetite for it among
Republican voters in Arizona generally. I think the momentum towards this election de nihilism has certainly calmed a bit in Arizona, and Trump being the victor is kind of going to seal the deal on that. I don't think Trump wants to discuss rigged elections or fake elections. He's won, He's happy with it, and I don't think carry Blake's going to have a lot of support if she starts, you know, sharing conspiracy theories about election de nihilism.
Again, there was a.
Lot of reportings somewhere on.
Bloomberg did quite a bit of reporting as well on the hardening of polling locations, the drone coverage, snipers on roofs, the extent to which Arizona went to create some confidence around the system here and also protect the vote from poll watchers or other bad actors. Potentially, how did Arizona do because there were no reports of trouble that I saw.
That's right.
I mean, Arizona and the election officials here worked really over time to try to ensure that there was absolutely no doubt that our elections were being conducted fairly, that everybody was going to feel secure. I was doing polling on Arizona where I asked voters, do you believe that elections in Arizona are safe and trustworthy? The overwhelming majority of Democrats believed they were. Republicans were split about fifty
to fifty. We had about half of Republicans saying yes, I have confidence in our elections, half of Republicans saying no. Those without confidence in the elections were significantly more likely to vote for Donald Trump. As it happens, as it probably is in part due to some of the messaging he shared since twenty twenty, but ultimately we've heard of no funny business going on with our elections, and hopefully once this is all said and done, people will be able to move on well tomorrow.
As we discussed with you the morning after the election, Arizona also had abortion on the ballot in this cycle, abortion rights were protected at the same time, and that it looks like Donald Trump will have the state called for him at some point. And I wonder if we can treat Arizona as a microcosm for the way all of this played out on the national level, which is that abortion is not quite the mobilizing issue that Democrats
were necessarily counting on. That maybe issues like the immigration issue, obviously hyper relevant in a border state like Arizona, are much more significant.
Sure well, I'd say.
Probably the most significant issue for voters in Arizona was the economy. They were repeatedly saying that that was the issue most important to them Latino voters, non Latino voters, men and women.
The economy was really number one for voters.
I don't know if we can necessarily say that having abortion on the ballot didn't help Harris.
It may have actually helped Harris we don't know.
This counterfactual world where abortion wasn't on the ballot possible, she may have done worse without it.
But having abortion on the.
Ballot certainly did allow pro choice Republicans the option of supporting their preferred candidate, Donald Trump and supporting reproductive rights.
And we do know that on the pulling that I've been.
Doing, over a third of Republicans we're planning on voting in favor of this measure. So from that perspective, having it on the ballot kind of gives Trump an out. People can both vote for Republicans, can vote for Trump, and can support abortion separately.
Interesting, the so called single vote, single voter when it comes to the issue of abortion to something we've talked about a lot. How about the single issue voter when it comes to the border. To what extent did they play into this result in Arizona.
Yeah, the border was a huge issue in Arizona, and similarly to abortion, we had a big ballot measure that gives the Arizona State law enforcement the power to both arrest and deport immigrants who cross into Arizona unlawfully.
So that's a really really conservative border policy.
There's a good chance that may never make it into a lot probably has quite a bit of a legal battle ahead of it.
That ballot measure passed overwhelmingly.
A significant portion of Democrats supported that, So we saw Bouplicans voting in favor of abortion rights and Democrats voting in favor of this really.
Punitive border policy.
So you can see how voters here in Arizona we're taking these issues pretty seriously and considering them separate from the presidential race.
Well, but when we consider the presidential race of the future look ahead to twenty twenty eight, what lesson needs to be learned for the Democratic Party that they need to do differently the next go around to be able to win the state of Arizona. Is it going to have to be a border hawk at the top of the ticket.
Well, I think we've got months, if not years, of speculation or you know, did or did not go wrong for the Democrats or in this election, I will say that, you know, Donald Trump currently looks like he's winning Arizona by about four percentage points. That would still put him in probably one of the lowest margins of victory ever for a Republican candidate in Arizona who still wins the state. He set that record already in twenty sixteen. So we're
not seeing overwhelming support for Donald Trump in Arizona. We do have an electorate here that is, you know, definitely more Republicans than Democrats. Our registration numbers show about a six percentage point advantage for Republicans and about a third who identify as independence. So a four percentage point win for Trump and Arizona is still a fairly narrow margin, especially in a state with more Republicans than that.
Now, obviously what the Democrats were hoping for was a win.
The fact of the matter is Democrats rarely win in presidential elections in Arizona.
We did it once in the nineties, we did once in twenty twenty.
But Arizona's you know, we typically vote for Republicans at the presidential race.
And I don't know if we can take.
This win by Trump and say that the Democrats have lost Arizona. I think it's still in this long term trend away from being a heavily Republican state more toward a purple state.
Well, professor, I know that your specialty covers more than just Arizona, and I wonder just broadly speaking about the results this week, save a few of the races that have yet to be called. Your thoughts on the comment from Bernie Sanders that the Democratic Party abandoned the working class in for the working class abandoned the Democratic Party.
Nancy Pelosi is speaking to The New York Times today condemning those remarks, saying Bernie Sanders has not won, and I have a great deal of respect for him, but says she does not respect him, saying the Democratic Party has abandoned working class families.
Was that part of the narrative?
Well, again, I.
Think it's going to be months of speculation here. What did or did not? What did the Democrats do right or wrong? We know that there has been a global trend since twenty twenty two of income in parties losing their elections. The United States is now part of that. We know that we've had a high levels of inflation since COVID. The Biden white House was going to have a hard time getting a second term, and Harris was
seen as part of that administration. So, you know, I don't know if I'm ready or anyone should be at this point to pinpoint one specific thing that went wrong. I think Bernie Sanders is correct in suggesting that the economy was the number one issue and if the Democrats were to win, they really had to connect with voters on how they were going to improve their financial lives.
Always a great conversation with University of Arizona Political Science Professor Samara Klar, Professor, Thank you so much for the insights.
It's great to have you with us.
We'll have our panel together next Kaylee, and lots to talk about with Rick Davis and Genie shan Zanol. It's quite a bit of news has broken here, including the news about Jack Smith. YEP, it looks like the two trials he was pursuing, the two cases against Donald Trump, are coming to it.
At least that's what the Department of Justice would like to continue, abiding by their long standing policy of not prosecuting US presidents while they're in office. We'll see if the judge cooperates with that. Joe and just reminds us we still have much more news to go even as we wrap up this election week. Here live from New York on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and radio.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Ronoo with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.
We'll be back in Washington next week. And you know who else is going to be back in Washington next week, Joe Congress, specifically the US Senate, which has leadership in a minute elections that will start in earnest come next week.
We've got a specific focus on the leadership battle in the Senate because now we do know that it will be led by Republicans, Kaylee. There will be a vote next week. This is going to be one of the big stories that we are talking about in what is currently a three way race to replace Mitch McConnell. We're joined now by Bloomberg Government Congress reporter Zach Cohen, who's
got his eyes on this for us. He lives in Breathes Capitol Hill, and there's a question, Zach, about whether the election of Donald Trump will effectively scramble that three way race, bringing someone else like a Steve Daines. I know that there's been some report that he might not want to go in that direction. But when it comes down to the two Johns Thune and Cornyn ad Rick Scott, how's this race shaping up?
Well, Certainly Trump hasn't formally endorsed any candidates in this race. In fact, sentimentary whip. John Thune, one of the front runners for this job, Republican from South Dakota, has actually said a couple of times in the last couple of days that Trump should stay out of this contest. That it could actually backfire in a couple of ways if there are members of the Centate Republican conference who say, I'm not a big fan of Trump weighing in on
what is a secret vallo at very personal election. You have to remember that Senate Republicans are not just picking a majority leader. They're picking their top fundraiser, their chief tactician. Somebody is going to need to have their back on all the major legislative and political fights in the coming
months and years. And so certainly Rick Scott, the Republican of Florida, who was just re elected on the same ballot as Trump, much closer to Trump than certainly Thuon or Cornyn is has been agitating for that endorsement for some time. He's told me he wants it and has been elevating endorsements from key Trumpian figures in hopes that could sway a couple of Senators to his side. But it has to be emphasized as a secret ballot election.
This is not a speaker race, and so certainly there's less influence here that we've seen in the McCarthy or Mike Johnson fights.
Is there any potential really for a dark horse there than Zach Because obviously there's been a lot of buzz about Steve Danes, who's coming off a very successful cycle with not just the Senate majority attained, but more seats added than was understood to be likely. What role is he really going to play?
Yeah, Steve Danes, the Republican from Montana who chaired the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and I believe the top fundraiser for all Senate Republicans in the last two years in that position, and certainly Republicans coming in with probably fifty three seats, assuming this call in Pennsylvania holds and the current leads for Democrats in Nevada and Arizona, whole fifty three seats is certainly bigger than anything Demo rats had
during the Biden administration, and it gives them some leeway on things like the twenty twenty six Senate races or on votes on really critical legislation going forward. Danes has said that he doesn't want to run for a leader. There had been some speculation that Trump could push him into that race, or that, you know, you could have a mandate basically for that job. But certainly I've seen some reporting that he is in favor of Thune instead for that role, and so someone could jump into the
last minute. Nothing is stopping them, there's no filing deadline. But Thun Cornyn especially had been running for this job for months at this point, and a number of Republicans have already dedicated their support for one of those candidates or for Rick Scott, and so it's going to be harder for a dark horse to come in at this juncture.
Well, what does a post McConnell world look like in the Senate? Are we going to see some deal making that kind of waters down the authority of the leader in the upper chamber as some have suggested. We saw what Kevin McCarthy experienced making a deal like that.
Yeah, I mean with some of that debate that will be up for debate Tuesday night. Senate Republicans, basically as soon as they get back to Washington are going to meet behind closed doors and talk with the candidates for later about what changes, if any, that they would support that could potentially weaken the leadership position. There are certain proposals raised by Senator Mike Lee, a Republican from Utah.
He chairs the Steering Committee, which is essentially a group of sort of hard right Republicans similar to the Freedom Caucus in the House, that have been asking for things that would make it harder for the leader, for instance, to stop debate on a bill when they're fighting over amendments in order to move a must pass vehicle forward, or maybe limiting the ability of the leader to name
his allies to key committees. After Lee and Scott lost their seats on the Commerce Committee when Scott ran against macconnell in twenty twenty two, and so the key question becomes what concessions do people like Thune or Corn and make to appease some of these folks who maybe on a second ballot once Rick Scott doesn't have the support to go forward. Assuming that is the case, you know, where do those folks go and what concessions do poon and corn and make to try to get that support.
Certainly there's a broad interest in trying to limit the power or the leader at something.
McConnell is the.
Longest serving leader in American history of either Democrats or Republicans. And I think there's a lot of interest from committee chairs to rank and file to having more say in these legislative vehicles. And that's going to have a really critical impact on things like the tax dots some job Zach renewaled, the Task Code overhaul from the Trump administration on government funding, on all of that that's going to come up in the next two years.
All right, Bloomberg Government Congress reporter Zach Cohen, thank you so much. Now, as we consider Senator Mitch McConnell, who was about to see his long tenure in Senate leadership, and we of course heard from the man himself in the aftermath of the election results. Here is McConnell in his own words.
With regard to the Senate, and you guys know how long I've been round. I had really hoped I'd be able to hand over to my successor the majority I've been the majority leader, I've been the minority leader. Majority of a lot.
Joining us now is someone who used to work for Senator McConnell. He's now principal and co leader of Washington National Tax Services as Pricewater house Cooper's ro Hit Kumar is back with us on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Served as deputy chief of staff and domestic policy director for McConnell. Roe Hit, thanks so much for being with us. I would love just your reflection on the legacy McConnell is leaving here after eighteen years serving in this leadership position.
He said, I was hoping I would be able to hand things over in the majority, and that's exactly what he's getting.
Yeah, I mean, he's getting what he had what he wished would happen, which was a Senate Republican majority. But it'll be interesting because, as Zach referenced in the prior segment, you know, one of the big fights that's coming ahead of Congress in twenty twenty five is this expiration of all the twenty seventeen individual and pass through tax provisions.
And Senator McConnell actually had a fair bit of experience in dealing with these expirations in twenty ten, then again in twenty twelve after they expired yet a second time, it was Senator McConnell and then Vice President Biden who negotiated, you know, a resolution to those fiscal cliffs. And so this sort of next time around, you're gonna have a whole new set of actors. No one that was there last time will be there this time. At least they
won't be in the room. President Biden will long rey President. Senator McConnell will still be in the Senate and could be a sort of a sounding board, much in the way that former Speaker Pelosi has stayed in the House and I think served as a resource to Minority Leader Jeffries. But he won't be the one, presumably in the room in the final negotiations, because that's the role for the new leader, whoever that ends up being.
So, what's your thought on the leadership battle here? Will it be one of the three that we have been mentioning Thoon, Cornyn Scott? Could that pool expand because of the election of Donald Trump? And no matter who gets this job, what will it mean for the culture of the Upper Chamber?
Yeah?
So, I mean it's always gospel that someone else throws their hat into the ring, but it would be extraordinarily difficult for someone to do so at this stage in the equation. The vote is scheduled to happen next week. The three candidates that are running have been running for the bulk of the year ever since Sint McConnell announced that he was not going to stand for a leader again. And is that indicated in the prior segment. It's a
secret ballot vote. So even if someone were knew or to throw their hat in the ring, and even if they were to secure the endorsement of the president elect, you know, it's not a speaker vote.
It's not done in public.
You can promise that you're going to vote for whoever you think you need to promise you're going to vote for, but then at the you know, in the end of the day, you get to cast your vote wherever you
choose to. And I think that was part of the sort of the Senator thuns sort of the rationale for his argument for why endorsements are not wise here because you just never know if it's going to be outcome determinative, and you riskalienating you know, if your preferred candidate doesn't prevail, then you're riskalienating whoever does prevail.
Well.
Of course, while this leadership election is going to get started next week, the new majority won't act be seated with that new leader in place until January, when they'll have to start working on the very ambitious agenda outlined by President elect Donald Trump. It's something Rowhit that we spoke about with Senator Bill Haggerty of Tennessee last night on Balance of Power. This is what he told us, and we'll have your respond.
President Trump's overarching goal is to see a lot more economic growth here in this economy. You can count on another effort to undertake a massive deregulation thrust. By some measures, the cost of deregulation under the Biden administration has been more than a trillion dollars. It's a compliance burden that is enormous. That's something that can be lifted on our businesses. It will have an impact in a positive way on the economy, and that can be undertaken without any cost.
And I wonder Rohit as we consider the cost here, just the way in which even deregulation, how quickly it would move through this incoming administration and Congress. What help us set realistic expectations here if you would.
Yes, Deregulation can happen sort of one of two ways. Ones more sort of quicker than the other. The ascent that there are pending regulations that have not yet been finalized.
Then on day one of new new administration and the ut is typically in a new administration, you get sort of a pencils down order across the board whatever you're working on, stop, let us take a moment evaluate where things stand, if we want to pursue this regulation, or if we want to go a different direction, or we don't want to do it in some cases, and maybe we don't want to do this at all. We don't think there's any version of this that's a good idea.
So that's not a lifting of a current burden. But to the ecent that there's a proposed regulation out there, and you know the private sector was preparing to comply with some version of that regulation and altering its behavior and anticipation of that rule being finalized, you know that has sort of an.
Immediate effect on behavior.
The other is if there is a regulation that's already been finalized, and if it was finalized long enough ago that it's not subject to congressional review, then the way to undo it is, frankly, you have to issue a new regulation, which means you have to go propose a new rule, go through a notice in comment period, and that can take you know, several months, maybe even you know, up to a year or longer, depending on the complexity
of the rule. How quickly you get a new proposal out, you know, how many comments you get, things like that.
And then for rules that were finalized within sixty legislative days, and legislative days is an important concept here, within sixty legislative days of the end of the session, those rules, in theory are eligible for review by the new Congress using sort of what's called the Congressional Review Act, which is a statute that dates back to the mid nineties, was used probably most expansively in the first Trump administration, again coming off Democratic administration with a bunch of rules
that Republicans were not fans of, and I think they overturned sixteen rules using the Congressional Review Act in the
early part of twenty seventeen. So you would anticipate some of the more recent rules, the ones that were finalized, you know, in the latter half of twenty twenty four, perhaps being eligible for deregulatory moves, but by an Act of Congress, it does require the President to sign the disapproval resolution into law, which is why it would not have been effective if you know, President Biden and reelected or President Harris, if Vice President Harris has become President Harris.
But in a change in administration, it opens.
Up the aperture for that form of deregulatory movement as well.
Right he you mentioned the Trump era tax cuts.
Our audience should know you helped to lead pwdc's National Tax Office. And as we focus our conversation here on the Senate, if the House does turn democratic, I realize the odds are better for a Republican led House. What would it mean for the effort to extend or make permanent the tax cuts?
So I mean clearly it would be a different negotiation if it's divided government. And my anticipation is that that negotiation drags into the you know, the wee hours of twenty twenty five, you know, somewhere between Thanksgiving and the end of the calendar years, when that negotiation probably takes off in earnest not unlike the tw twelve fiscal cliff negotiations, which took off really in earnestness, like the week of
Christmas going into the new year. And in that scenario, you would anticipate some pressure on the headline corporate rate, and you would expect some pressure on the top marginal rate returning from thirty seven to thirty nine to six, and you know, perhaps a debate about what income level that upper bracket, that higher upper top bracket would kick in.
And then in addition to that, you would anticipate House Democrats to continue to pursue the preferred version of the child tax credit, a pretty dramatic expansion of the child tax credit, if not the twenty twenty one version in the American Rescue Plan, but something approaching that. But you know, it'll be interesting to see how Democrats would have to
just sort of figure out what to prioritize. Is it prioritizing raising taxes on corporations and upperingom individuals, Is it, you know, prioritizing tax relief for lower and middlecome families, you know, with some leverage, but not you know, without the Senate, without the White House, you don't have an
unlimited amount of leverage. So to be interesting to see what do House Democrats to if they were to find themselves in the majority, What would they prioritize in a negotiation, and what would they you know, say, look, if we had total control, we would do these things. But with only the House, you know, we we have to focus our political capital on the places where it matters most.
We're out of time.
But is John Thune in the lead to replace Mitch McConnell.
That is the conventional wisdom.
But you know, these are notoriously tricky things to predict because it is a secret ballot. And I think it was Center Alexander Lamar. Alexander who's no longer in the Senate, you know, said at one point he wrote, you know, like something like twenty five thank you notes for twenty four votes. So it does happen sometimes that people say they're going to do something, but in the you know, in the secret ballot, they do something.
Perhaps else, let's compare notes once we know.
Co leader of PWC's National Tax Office, thank you so much for being with us year.
Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
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