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Welcome to the Tuesday edition. Feels like a Monday here on the fastest show in politics on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. After six weeks and twenty two witnesses, here, we are the moment many have been waiting for. In Lower Manhattan, closing arguments are now underway in Donald Trump's criminal trial.
Each of the thirty four if you're playing along in your home game, felony falsification of business records charges that he is facing brings a sentence of up to four years in prison and a five thousand dollars fine. Of course, the President has pleaded not guilty and is still learning about the process here, which is amazing to me for someone who has been so heavily litigated over the course
of his career. Donald Trump takes to truth Social last night and writes in all caps, why is the corrupt government allowed to make the final argument in the case against me? Why can't the defense go last? Big advantage? Very unfair? Which hunt exclamation point. That is the way it works here. Just ask Eric Larson. He does this for a living Bloomberg Legal reporter has been in the courtroom for the duration of this trial, and I'm glad to say is with us now from world headquarters in
New York. Eric, That is the way it goes, right, if you are trying to carry the burden of proof the prosecution, Donald Trump knows that.
Yes, I'm pretty sure that was It's just standard. But as we've seen, mister Trump has complained about a lot of things during the trial that are just sort of standard procedures or things that were sort of the result of his own defense teams doing so, you know, it's a little bit of a distraction, perhaps from what's really going on here, because actually, after the prosecution gives it its closing arguments, you know they're going to the juries
were already going to have heard from several hours of the defense here. So it's not as though they're not getting an opportunity to say everything they want to say.
Fair enough, yes, not a coin toss. Though, to be clear, Eric, what are we going to witness here over the next day we're hearing closing arguments might in fact go into tomorrow as we watch the summation of this case. What do you have your focus on?
Well, the judge said last week that he anticipated the closing statements or arguments would go all day today and potentially bleed into Wednesday, although it's also possible that if they keep on track, they could wrap up today, especially be because the judge has told the jury that they have the opportunity to stay later than four thirty pm today if they wish, that's the usual closing time for the trial, and just to try to move things along.
They do have to get their official instructions from the judge as well, So either way, I would imagine that deliberations would be going on for most of the day tomorrow.
You're one of the few Americans, Eric Larson, who has actually seen this jury, having been in the courtroom for the balance of the trial. Some are making the case that this could be a very quick turn here because they've been steeped in this case for so long, and for many it's cut and dry. But we've also had a lot of legal experts tell us to never try to predict a jury, that this is when the wild
cards could come. What are the options, what are the outcomes potentially that you're looking for here?
Well, you know, anyone's guess what is going on with this jury. Both sides are making their cases very strongly. Obviously the government has the burden of proof here, and all that the defense needs is for one of those jurors to have a reasonable doubt and then you end up with a hung jury and a mistrial. So we're prepared for any of those outcomes. And as you noted, this is an unprecedented case, but we could get a
verdict pretty quick. I mean I've spoken with experts who say that if, for example, the jury is buying this case and they decide to convict, that that could happen, you know, even within one day of deliberations, And if it goes on potentially longer than a few days, then perhaps the case is in a little bit more trouble.
Yeah.
Uh, fascinating to think where we would be at that point. CBS News is reporting eric a New York Corrections sources the Secret Service has met with local jail officials to talk about possible outcomes. Now, I will say that every analyst who's ever come on this show says, don't even dream of Donald Trump is not going to jail no matter what happens.
In this case.
But the fact that they have to have this conversation shorter sentences I read can be served at Rikers, which has two wings that are typically used for high profile or infamous inmates. Is the Secret Service prepared to have officers in a jail cell if necessary.
I would imagine that that is something they discussed quite some time ago, because you'll recall that Judge Murshawn has threatened to jail Trump even before the trial was over for violating repeatedly violating a gag order barring Trump from publicly commenting about witnesses and and the jury. So clearly there must have been some discussions going on a while ago, because the judge at any time could have ordered Trump
to go to jail for that alone. But I'm sure that that is something that the Secret Service would have be obligated to be discussing.
Fascinating. It's really great to have you back, Eric. We've missed you because I locked in court. We can't always get our hands on Eric Larson, but today we have Bloomberg's legal reporter in New York. Great to see you, sir. Thank you for the update. This is going to happen
this week. It's looking like it's coming here this week, and when the news breaks from the courthouse in Lower Manhattan, you will hear it first here on Bloomberg Radio, be with us on the radio, on the satellite, or on YouTube. As I say, because this is going to be a big one and will be offering you the best legal and political analysis that you're going to find anywhere on this program. As we turn to our other major story today, and that is the fallout from the Israeli airstrike on
a tent camp in Rafa. The international condemnation has been heard loudly since Sunday, with witnesses describing a truly horrific scene and a lot of questions about how this could have happened. As we read on the terminal, Trying to put this together here has been very difficult, as the IDF says that the attack was based on precise intelligence.
That is a quote. It killed two senior officials from Hamas, which was of course, the point of this here French President Emmanuel Macrone outraged, the White House heartbreaking, the IDF investigating. Mick mulroy is back with us on Bloomberg. I'm glad to say he's co founder of the Lobo Institute, former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, and is now personally involved in trying to deliver humanitarian
aid to those who need it in Gaza. Mick, it's great to have you back your thoughts when you saw these images. Forty five civilians killed. At what point do we reach Joe Biden's red line in Rafa?
So, Joe, of course, anytime civilians are killed in conflict, it is not a good thing. And I think what's really got people concerned here is the IDF has relocated civilians to try to avoid this and then apparently struck
in the area of which they were relocated. Too clear, I think from the IDF's statement that the actual casualties were caused by the munitions that they used to kill the two ABSST militants, or as their statement indicates, it might have been collateral and then secondary explosion that cause the fire. I don't know, but obviously a lot of concern, considering the whole point was to move them to a location that was out of harm's way, and then there was a strike in the vicinity.
I'm glad you mentioned that the IDF says it cannot explain the fires that followed the strikes that they again claim were precise. Is it on the IDF Is it on the Israeli military to know the difference? If there's say a depot of some sort next to a target, you're still putting civilians at risk.
That's right. When it comes to these type of assessments, you have to have a military necessity. If they were correct and they were going after a Moss leadership, that is a military necessity and a valid military target. But then there's proportionality. So that's where I think the US government has had issues with the IDEF. Is the proportionality.
If you use a large diama or bomb in an urban area, for example, you yes, likely kill the two militants, but you also might flatten the buildings that are around it, killing civilians. That of course would be out of proportion. So I don't know the details here and whether they did an accurate assessment of the potential collateral facilities like ammunition depot or field depot or something that could have
caused his fire. But that is all something that's taken into account when they look at whether there was proportionality and their decision to take destray.
Well, Joe Biden's red line was in reference to an invasion of Rafa many weeks ago when he said that, and we've seen this very sort of incremental approach here, some would say limited approach. But after this story that we're talking about forty five dead, clearly airstrikes that are taking place. We also read Israeli tanks have reached the center of Rafa, a sign that they could be nearing the goal of taking full control of the city. So if not, now, when is the full invasion of Rafa?
Aren't we seeing it?
Well, we very well could be. So tanks are used in urban combat, and there is an armored division as well as a airborne division that was a raid to be able to do this offensive. A tank indicates to me, quite frankly, if they're going with a full option. A limited would be more special operations, reconnaissance driven. But when you have tanks inside cities, that indicates that it's a full, full invasion. Is that exactly That is exactly what the
Biden administration did not want to see. So it looks like that's the case. Of course, we have to see more information on how this fully plays out.
I'd like to ask you your thoughts on the temporary peer as I see images of the peer apparently having trouble staying afloat. This was put in place to the tune of many millions of dollars and a lot of blood, sweat and tiers by the United States military to deliver aid to Gaza, trying to get around some of the more obvious crossings that have been blocked. It hasn't been
delivering nearly the aid that was expected. And I see Donald Trump's campaign manager tweeting a picture of this bridge starting to sinc calling it the Biden peer to nowhere. As this takes on political connotations, Mick, was this flawed in its concept to begin with?
Well, first of all, I got to point out just the herculean effort that the US Military Central Command, and particularly the Army component of that is who is responsible for this system, this Jaylot system, It is essential if it can be utilized by the humanitarian community. So The issue right now is to bring in a lot of AID disciples and get the barges running to the jaylots.
It is significantly challenged in the weather conditions and the servicemen and women that are responsible for it and are doing everything we can to keep it up and running. But I do think if it is up and running and aid starts flowing, it is absolutely essential because aid is not coming in through say they're offa crossing right now, which is right in the middle of this offensive bin Rafa, and it's not coming in in anywhere near the quantities
needed for this spelling and population in Gaza. So it's certainly not perfect, and nothing in a conflict or especially a maritime conflict environment is, but I do think it is essential, and the more AID it starts flowing over, I think it'll show its value, especially to the people who are on the verge of a famine in northern Gaza.
Well, Nick, I know that you are among a group of specialized people who are trying to come up with alternative solutions here, and there's probably a lot that you can't talk about right now, But how do you see this playing out. We've tried air drops, we've built an entire pier here that may not be working. We're dealing with border crossings that are closed when trucks showed up, and of course Hamas willing to attack AID trucks and steal food when they do get through. What other option.
Do we have, right, Joe, I really do think that the argument or the answer is not one or the other. It is all the above. There's about seven ground crossings into Gaza. It would be good if all of those were open. There's political issues in Israel, there's families of the hostages that block these, but they also need a maritime option. I mean, it's a twenty five mile long territory that has a twenty five mile long coastline. They would want to have a maritime option and that can
bring in aid at scale. Air drops, although they can be used for specific cases, simply can't bring enough to make that much of an effort or that much of a difference. I do think the ground and maritime taken together, can not only decompress the situation when it came to fan Him, but potentially help in the rebuilding of Gaza when this ceasefire eventually does happen and the end of hostilities happens. That has to happen because right now eighty
five percent of the dwellings in Gaza are uninhabitable. So this is something that I think is needed for the near and long term.
Israeli defense forces. Say two militants, as I mentioned, were killed in this attack in Rafa. How many are left? What is left of Hamas in Rafa? Do we have an understanding?
It's difficult, Joe to get a handle on that. The IDEAF said they have essentially dismantled or significantly degraded twenty of the twenty four battalions if you will, with the four remaining being in Rafa, which is why they believed they needed militarily to have to have this objective. It's unclear of how many were killed. I've seen estimates between ten and fifteen thousand. It was estimated to be around
thirty thousand. But it's also critical for the IDF perspective to destroy the tunnel systems, which is very significant, and of course the advanced munitions, the rockets and such that they can use to really threaten Israel. And so I think there's a multi prom objective here when it comes
to military they will not end Tamas the philosophy. Obviously, a terrorist organization is potentially could even increase in size, but they need to destroy the tunnels, they need to capture and kill the leadership, and they need to significantly destroy the munitions they can use to threaten Israel.
Well, Nick, when you start to get aid flowing, we'd love to talk to you about how you figured this out in this ongoing effort. Mick mulroy, co founder of the Lobo Institute, thank you for helping us get started. Here on the fastest show in politics from Washington to New York and to Israel. This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on applecar Play and then roud Otto the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
As we ponder the question after what we saw over the weekend, was it campaign malpractice to send the former president of the United States into a room full of libertarians only to be booed and heckled publicly at length? On Saturday? Did you see this this is at the Washington Hilton. Over the weekend, the Libertarian Convention enter Donald Trump.
Let's watch at its national convention on Saturday, the Libertarian Party should nominate Trump for President of the United States.
WHOA there you go? Spared you a good chunk of that. This went on forever. The heckling extended, booing to the point where Trump's asking, what the hell do you guys run for anyway? If you want just three percent? I don't know what he was doing there. He was followed by RFK Junior, who had a very deliberate message for
libertarians who love him. Let's assemble our panel. Genie Shanzana was with US Bloomberg Politics, contributor, of course, democratic analyst and now senior Democracy Fellow with the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress. It's just joined by Lisa Camuso Miller, Republican strategist, former communications director at the Republican National Committee, host of the Friday Reporter podcast. Ginny and Lisa.
Welcome.
Lisa. I'll start with you. I know you're not running the Donald Trump campaign, but they did that on purpose. What did they get for it?
You know?
Joe, I think I mean it's hard to really sort of get into the mind of what and why. But he still has to appeal to some of those that are in the room in that space, right, And so room really represents sort of the Republican yes, of course libertarian, but those of us that sort of live in a the former Republican party, right. So there's a lot of my colleagues and friends that I work with that live
there today. And so if you're on the campaign, you're seeing that as an opportunity perhaps to appeal to some of those who are hardened against you and perhaps going to sit it out or even pull the lever for the Democratic candidate. But that's a tough crowd and it's really unfortunately, Joe, it's inside the Beltway, and it's an organist, it's an organization. They probably wasn't going to support Trump anyway. So I'm not sure it's going to have very much impact.
Certainly it must have hurt the ego of the former president if nothing else.
Yeah, why put them through it? Because you know Lisa's right, Geanie. Does anyone in the world know that the Libertarian Convention's taking place? Well now they do when they look at their Twitter scroll and they see Donald Trump being disrespected for quite a length of time at the podium. What was the strategy here, Well.
This is the third biggest political party in the country. They're on thirty seven, thirty eight ballots, so it's a big get. You know, when you talk about where the campaign miss stepped, I would suggest, if you put your candidate in there and ask them to nominate you, you should have done the.
Paperwork to get that nomination.
And of course the next day we find out that, oh, by the way, despite asking, the campaign just didn't do the paperwork, and he winds up with like two writ in votes or something, you know, just slightly worse than RFK Junior. So you know, it was a bad step by the campaign. I do think his overall instinct, or the campaign's instinct to go and try to spread this map is a good instinct. In this case, it seemed
to have backfired. And I just loved him gaslighting them right back when they booed and heckled, he said, oh, you want to just repeat your three percent you get every four years, right, basically pumped off the stage in thirty minutes where they'll usually go ninety.
So I enjoyed it.
Well good.
You know, we know a genie was watching on Saturday night one, a Memorial Day weekend. But you know RFK Junior showed up as well. He was there the next night and says, this is interesting. I want to hear from both of you on this potential wrinkle of pocket of real weakness for Donald Trump. So Lisa's point, these are in many cases conservatives in that room. R FK Junior says, Trump presided over the greatest restriction of individual liberties this country has ever known. This is why they
were yelling at him, saying, you took our freedoms away. Quote. He did not stand up for the Constitution when it really mattered. Pointing to COVID, Now here's the line of the weekend. Maybe a brain worm made that part of my memory. RFK said, but I don't recall any part of the Constitution that creates an exemption for pandemics. Is this a problem for Donald Trump or is he such an extreme alternative to Joe Biden in a general election? Lisa, that COVID does not come up.
Joe, he lost me at earworm or brainworm or whatever that is that he talks about. Take your break, you know, I don't necessarily think that this. I think it's he's a spoiler, and I think that he probably takes votes away from Joe Biden for those who aren't for Trump but don't necessarily feel good about the way the White House has been leading on the economy and foreign affairs issues.
So that alone, I think just represents a threat that's not a Donald Trump threat as much as it's a threat to the sitting president in my opinion.
Well, that's a great point, Jeanie, your thought on that. It's not like Joe Biden can criticize Donald Trump about COVID restrictions.
No, nor would he want to. And you know, I think the fact that we see, you know, Donald Trump and his campaign going after OURFK shows that they they feel and of course the evidence is sort of all over the map on this that they may be the losers.
And you know, we can't forget that in an election that.
Is at least the polls tell us as tight as this is, a few thousand votes matter, and so you know, just ask George Bush in nineteen ninety two, or just ask Hillary Clinton in twenty sixteen, or Al Gore in two thousand. They all feel that their election was taken from them by a few thousand votes from a third party candidate with no hope of winning. So, you know, Donald Trump has that fear. I think Joe Biden to a certain extent, although they're feeling a little better on
that point. So this is a challenge with RFK in there if he's able to get these votes. And you know the fact that, you know, the one thing that Donald Trump did, not the only thing, but one important thing he did was pushing so hard to get us to get some kind of vaccination from COVID, and he did it, and he has run away from it throughout this election for the very reason you were just talking about. It's absolutely maddening. I don't see how that brings back
the voters. Lisa was talking about the Republicans who are Republicans of the past, if you will, They too got the vaccine, thankfully that he put into practice. So you know, I'm not sure how this helps Donald Trump or quite frankly, AREFK Junior. But it's a big deal in this Libertarian party.
Well, it worked better than the Bleach, We'll say that, Lisa. I don't know to what extent Joe Biden's going to be answering questions about his response to COVID here, but if you ask him, it's a point of pride, right, this is not something that's going to be driving voters. It's going to be inflation, it's going to be the border, it's going to be abortion and so many of the other social issues that we're talking about here. It's also going to be foreign policy. And I'm by this tweet
that we saw from Donald Trump's campaign manager. I mentioned it once earlier this hour. Chris Lszavita tweets a picture of the temporary peer in Gaza, which is half underwater. In this photograph, quote the Biden peer to nowhere, unquote symbolic of a campaign that we're reading about this morning, Genie. Democrats are having nightmares. All of a sudden, there's this
realization that, hey, we're in trouble. To what extent, Lisa, is Chris Lasavita's tweet appropriate at this stage of the campaign, or maybe I should say accurate.
You know this we're like in the silly season, right, always all the time, Joe. But I think it's indicative of how the papers and the stories everything today is reading is that This is going to continue to be. This conflict that's happening in the Middle East is going to be continued to be the biggest challenge for Joe Biden between now and November, and it overshadows every other thing.
It overshadows any successes he has in the economy, in the beatback for inflation, just about everything, because this continues to hang over his head. As someone who, by the way, was the chair of the Foreign Relations Committee right when he was in the Senate, he's someone who really sees this as his legacy, and the fact that he warned Benjamin Netanyahu about going into Rafa, the fact that he and the UN and everyone else has warned that this
not happened. While I think it's probably off color for Lasavita to be saying that in the morning after terrible, terrible losses in Gaza, I also think too that he probably sees this as the biggest challenge for the Biden campaign.
What do you think about this, Genie? I want to give you a chance to reply, because the story in Israel is getting worse now that we're certainly we're talking about a very difficult weekend here in Israel and a solution in the form of this peer that does not appear to be working. I realize that this could change, but we've got tanks, Israeli tanks in the center of Rafa, and Joe Biden talking about red lines that don't seem to exist.
You know, I think, Chris Lasovito, it's absolutely shameful.
And I agree with Lisa.
The morning after, or hours if you will, after, we see forty five innocent people killed babies. The pictures coming out of there are absolutely horrific. And you send over a picture of a bridge that our government and our military folks on Memorial Day weekend, by the way, they have put in hours of blood, sweat and tears to get that up and running. And it may not be at the point where we all want it to be
at this point, but the goal is admirable. The work has been hard, and it has been for something I would think all Americans, regardless of your political party or candidate of choice in the twenty four election, would be supportive of which is getting aid into civilian populations that desperately need it. To make fun of that bridge to nowhere.
Blah blah blah. It's shameful, you know.
Joe Biden, as President of the United States doesn't have the luxury of sitting back like Donald Trump does as a former president in office, He's got to have make decisions. He drew a red line that's going to come back to be something he's going to have to address, and we will see where he goes with that once we have more information on what happened. But I thought the
tweet or whatever las Vita sent out was shameful. This is the work of our military, this is the work of our government, and you would think they would be patriotic enough on Memorial Days to support that.
Well, I'll tell you what Donald Trump's Memorial Day tweet or truth I guess it was, Lisa, would make you wonder about his thoughts on theh He did not mention Americans who served the country or who have died for the country. He wrote a message to the quote unquote scumbags who have opposed him politically and legally. Is the nation ready for four more of that?
I don't know, Joe.
I mean, look, I'm a kid of a family that has served right and they considered from now until the end of time, will consider the former president of draft Dodger. They do not have a lot of respect for him and the way he treats or talks about our armed services. They do not like the fact that he says what he says. This is the head of all armed services, This is the top of the top, and this is the way he talks about. Are those who go into these places and keep us safe here at home? Are
we ready for it? No, Joe, we are definitely not. Does it look like we're headed that way? It absolutely does.
Yeah. Well, I guess to an extent, it's been normalized. Just to be clear, I said, scumbag. It's quote happy memorial data all including the human scum that is working so hard to destroy our once great country and of the radical left, Trump hating federal judge in New York that presided over. I could go on, but there's not enough time or enough caps. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Glad you're with us.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Enrounoo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Bring our attention to Lower Manhattan. Of course, that is the trial, the criminal trial of Donald Trump. Today, closing arguments are now officially underway, and this could be a pivotal week here in the trial. It is expected that this case will go to the jury, likely Wednesday or Thursday, and then of course it's off to deliberations, and we'll
see what happens with that. Many are addicting a short turn in deliberations here, we'll see what Robert Makewerder thinks a reliable voice for us and understanding each phase of this trial, he's back with us now, Criminal and Constitutional law attorney Robert the idea is here, and we heard it from the judge. Closing arguments may well last into tomorrow after the last many weeks. Why take so long to sum up the case?
I think that the defense is just looking for things to say. I don't know why it would take so long. It's not it is somewhat of a complicated case. But you know, the prosecution can lay out exactly what went on here. You don't have to go into a great, big, huge dissertation on things. And I'm not sure how much the defense is going to say. They're going to meticulously
try to attack everybody. Spend a lot of time on Michael Cohen, a lot of time on Ms Daniels, But I don't know that they're going to get to the essential issue. You know, one thing that the defense is never adequately explained here is nor did they deny, is that there was a one hundred and thirty thousand dollars payment made to miss Daniels. They don't really have an explanation. They say, well, Donald Trump didn't sleep with her, and
somehow she was extorting him. But then are they really saying that Donald Trump is the kind of man who would pay off an extortionist. I don't think so. They don't have a good explanation, and I think that the argument that maybe Michael Cohen did this out of the goodness of his heart to help Stormy Daniels just doesn't go anywhere.
Donald Trump seems to be learning a little bit more about the process today. Robert. Maybe if he'd hired you, he would have known the way this works with closing arguments.
Quote.
This is a post on social media. Why is the corrupt government allowed to make the final argument in the case against me? Why can't the defense go last? He writes a big advantage, very unfair, which hunt exclamation point, Robert, this is the way it works. It's supposed to work this week. Correct, when you carry the burden of proof.
The government has the burden of proof. That's why the law gives them the last shot. There is a rare situation. If the government was to come up with something totally new in their last shot, you can get what's called sir rebuttal. But it's very very very rare, and the government would have to really do something. And I don't see the state prosecutors doing this. The state prosecutors have kind of given us a master class in how to
structure good prosecution. It structured well. Their cross examinations were excellent, they present the presentations of the witnesses were appropriately sequenced and timed. So I don't see them making any kind of blender like that. And mister Trump, can you know if you notice mister Trump spends a lot of time complaining about procedures because he doesn't really want to talk about the facts.
Well, we will note that he has pleaded not guilty in this case. But after six weeks and twenty two witnesses, is Robert, what is this jury about to go through And why does everyone seem to think that this will be a brief deliberation.
Because what the jury is going to do is of course they're going to be going to the room. I would guess that if closing arguments end today, which they could, the case will be over before Friday. If closing arguments don't end until Thursday, then it might extend it to the weekend and they'll come back. My prediction is this case will be over before Friday, and they're going to have to deliberate. I think that the deliberation will be somewhat short because the quality of the defense is not
very high. I think mister Trump had some good lawyers, but he was calling the shots here. And I think mister Trump is far more interested in what's going on outside of the courtroom than he is what's going on inside of the courtroom. Everything is designed for his political messaging. And look, I'll give you one example. He complains that he can't you know, has to be in this trial and he can't go on campaign. Well, if he goes out to campaign in the Bronx, he talked to maybe
eight thousand people at that rally. His staff claimed it was twenty five thousand, but the police now it was only eight thousand. Well, okay, so he can't go do that. But you do realize that every day after trial he gets to go talk to many million because it gets free media time. When he makes a statement after every day's course of proceedings, you know, that's free media coverage that reaches millions versus a rally that might reach a
few thousand. So he's really designed this to his favors, and he's prepared everybody for his argument after he loses. He's not running around saying this is a great fair jury. In fact, if they end up acquitting, he's going to be in a kind of a strange situation of turning around and say, well, I guess everything really was fair. So I just don't think that the defense has much
quality here in terms of what they're saying. They can't explain certain key issues like why did Stormy Daniels get paid one hundred and three thousand dollars.
Well, it sounds like you're bracing for a conviction on at least some of these thirty four charges here. CBS News is reporting that the Secret Service has in fact met with New York Corrections officials to discuss the possibility of incarceration. Robert, I don't know if that's something that you're allowing for. If there's a couple of days in a room somewhere, but obviously Donald Trump wouldn't be alone in that room. He would require Secret Service protection no
matter where he went. Does this sound like a formality to you or a potential reality?
Oh?
I think these are smart agents who figure out they have to plan for every contingency. It is a very real possibility that Donald Trump will get convicted, and so they have to plan for that eventuality a defendant, immediately he would go into the custody Well, let's be clear, if he receives jail time on this, he will go into custody of the New York Department of Corrections. When that happens is a little open. It probably wouldn't happen right after conviction, but there is a possibility of that
the judge could decide to do that. In all likelihood, you're going to have about a month or so before a sentencing hearing, and then Donald Trump will requested he be allowed to be released pending his appeal. So it's going to be several months before that eventuality would happen and he actually would be put in jail, and the judge for a first time offense may decide not to
give him jail time. However, given mister Trump's behavior, if mister Trump wasn't mister Trump, he would most surely be looking at jail time for his behavior and the ways conducted himself during the.
Trump Well, it is interesting that he apparently violated the gag order a couple of times since the weekend. But we're beyond gag orders at this point. With this trial about to resolve, I've got less than a minute here, Robert. Does the impact of celebrity move this jury or are we beyond that when it's a former president?
Well, we don't know. We don't know how this affects the jury. In high celebrity cases, I think defendants get an extra kind of benefit. I mean, just look at OJ Simpson's case, for instance, he gets a greater benefit. If there is a rabid Trump supporter on this jury, they could gum up the entire thing. If there's one or two, that means there could be a hung jury. Now, if a juror decides not to deliberate at all, the other jurors can tell the judge and that jury jury
can be replaced. But if it's somebody who just is going to gum the whole things up, well then you could have a mistrial here and this trial could be race scheduled to be tried again.
Well, you're the first person we'll call. Robert mcwurd or a criminal constitutional law attorney. Thank you, Robert for being with us. I suspect we may be talking again this week. I hope that is the case.
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Thirty and some interesting storylines coming out of the weekend here, very few of them good for Joe Biden. Even as we talk this day about closing arguments in the criminal trial of Donald Trump, the headlines from Israel are very problematic for a president who is already watching progressive Democrats reconsider their support based on Israel policy. When you consider
the polling now the approval numbers. Some of the polls we saw on Friday from the Cook Political Report from Emerson painting a picture that is very consistent with Bloomberg polling that shows the president potentially losing this race, at least in the swing state. So everyone wakes up to Politico this morning and the playbook full blown freak out
is the headline. And we thought boy Cliff Young might have something to say about that, because he's actually doing his own research at IPSOS and a great voice on the campaign for us here at Bloomberg. He's with us at the table. Now, how are things. You had a long weekend, The lawmakers are gone, You can park where you want in Washington.
What else?
It's a great day.
It is a great day.
Thank you for coming in. You're attempting to answer this great question that is kind of a flip to are you better off now than you were four years ago? You're asking what is the greatest problem facing America? And I guess we shouldn't be too surprised by what you found because we talk about it here on Bloomberg every day.
Yeah, it's the economy, and more specifically it's inflation and more problematic for the Biden camp is at their core constituencies, Younger Americans, Hispanic Americans, black Americans, affluent Americans all are affected by inflation. Now, it's not rates. People don't understand rates inflation rates. It's about price levels and ability to make ends meet. And there's a lingering effect of this, and this is problematic for the Biden campaign.
Although a young perspective homeowner might be able to talk to you about rates, or somebody who owes money on a car, right, there aren't ways in which interest rates are biting us in a literal way. But you go back to Joe Biden a couple of weeks ago predicting that interest rate cut, and boy was he projecting, wasn't he.
Yeah, he really wanted things to be better. They know their problem, right, But once again, if you were paying two years ago one hundred and fifty for basic food stuffs and today you're paying one hundred and seventy, that's twenty dollars more that you're paying, and that's twenty dollars
more that you don't have. And I think that there's been a lot of tone deafness among the Democrats, among elites understanding how the average person the average American goes about their day to day, and their day to day is counting nickels and dimes.
That's right. And it's not just the trajectory of inflation. It's where prices are now versus where they were then.
Right.
We talk about slowing inflation as if this is a great thing, but it just means that prices are going up still but at a slower rate.
Slower Yeah, but there's still not a win. Yeah, that's not a win. That's not a win. And the experience is that you need time, you need wages to increase at the same rate, if not at a greater rate. And it's not about the overall average. We're not talking about the United States. We're talking about individuals in these key demographics as well as in the key swings days.
So that's number one, and that did not surprise us. So number two did surprise me, and I'd love your thoughts on this. By the way, the economy at twenty three percent most important problem facing America. Number two is political extremism, and if you're with us on Bloomberg TV, you can see it was right behind the economy at twenty one percent. This is something shared by both sides.
Yeah, So on the democratic side, it's threats to democracy and who's a threat Donald Trump. It's a way to mobilize the anti Trump vote. And on the other side is what are issues of polical streamism and problems with the democracy. It's a broken system, and who's going to fix the broken system? Donald Trump? And so in my mind, looking forward, if the economy continues to improve, we should see that as threats to democracy and polical streamism becoming
the number one issue. But today that's not the case. Today it still is the commune inflation, and I would say it's Biden's Achilles Hill.
You're surprised to see immigration at thirteen percent in some polling. During the early States, it was the number one issue for primary voters.
Yeah, it's a critical issue. It's a critical issue on the borders. It's a critical issue among Republicans. It's what Trump won on in twenty sixteen. And if you have a black Swan event, some sort of mad rush at the border, something that's really really symbolic and apparent, it could swing things as well. It is a Republican issue, it is a Trump issue.
The issue of Israel is something that's been dogging Joe Biden, and I always hear that voters don't make decisions based on geopolitics, but this one has been resonating on a domestic level in a.
Very real way.
He's certainly worried about if the campaign has been directing resources in a way that makes that clear specifically in Michigan, but across the country. When it comes to progressives, this strike in Rafa over the weekend, forty five more civilians killed is bad news for the White House and for the campaign. How is the issue playing on the trail?
He needs it to go away, and so it doesn't help him on the margins. We saw the primary votes in Michigan. That's problematic for Biden and for the Democrats. But when push comes ashove, it's in flame over the war in Gaza across all demographic groups. So yes, it's an issue, but it's a issue specifically in specific places. The real issue, once again is still inflation and the inability of certain Americans in certain constituency groups to make ends meet.
Spending time with Cliff Young from IPSOS and his great polling in research that helps us find some interesting trends here on the campaign trail, talk to me about approval ratings. You can give us a little seminar on this with Joe Biden at about forty percent, history tells us why.
Cliff, Yeah, So we have a database at episodes of hundreds elections around the world. We call this our Salad bold approach. We just kind of throw everything together and mix it up a bit. But what does it tell us? It tells us basically that a sitting president at forty percent approval rating has better than a fifty to fifty chance of winning the next election. To be very specific, it's fifty five percent chance of winning the next election.
So we've been tracking over time and seeing where Biden's approval ratings are, and they're right at that tipping point depending on how you put it together, how you count it. If you take all the average of all the polls out there, it's about at thirty nine point five. It's not a good place to be at this point.
For a water technically, though relatively speaking, he's seen way worse.
Yeah, Well, his head's like poking out of the water. He's keeping yeah it than he's falling below.
What's it looked like in the curve over the course of this term.
He has been. It's been basically a fluctuation around a mean, which is an average, which is like they haven't moved at all. He's been a little bit below, a little bit above, a little bit below, a little bit above, and that's where he's been. I had the expectation that he would have improved by now, and that is not the case. So he's in a difficult place when it comes to that metric.
Getting back to the big freak out headline at Politico this morning, is it time to freak out? We're told frequently people don't pay attention to labor Day. He's got a lot of money. He doesn't seem to have a donor problem, although he did on a monthly basis fall behind Donald Trump for the first time in this cycle last month. When you look at the next six how much bandwidth does this campaign have to turn it around?
Well, the campaign hasn't started, and so it hasn't started. It really hasn't started. I mean the heavy lifting people say it's too well, I think it's a little premature. I think what we're coming to the market in general, and I say I is coming to terms with is that Donald Trump has a significant, non zero chance of winning. We know that now when it comes to Biden camp, he has a lot of has he has a lot of weaknesses that one would expect that with an improving
economy that he'd be able to work out. But the campaign hasn't started. He hasn't taken his case in a coherent way to the people, to his constituency groups. And we will see what happens once that happens.
Does it start with the first debate? Is that when people tune.
In, Well, I think it's very telling that we're having a first debate when we are Yeah, obviously the Biden camp is submit not so they think they have to make a statement. Yeah, And I think if not freaking out, they are feeling the pressure and believe they have to have a concrete proof point showing that he is in the game.
Well, we're having a watch party that night. You should come by. Okay, great to see Cliff Young always at the desk here at Bloomberg with us from ipso's polling. We always learned something when we talk to Cliff. He's the president of US Public Affairs at IPSO.
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Great to have you with us, sir on balance of power. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.