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Here on the Friday edition of Ballots of Power. You made it to the threshold of the weekend. And we do have news with our eyes on the campaign lot to talk about today. We say that every day and yes, Charlie, at the end of each week we say what a week that's going to be the case straight through the election? Dare I say the rest of the year and beyond. Donald Trump's in California Ask yourself why it's not on
the list of swing states. But he will resolve his day in Las Vegas, which very much is a late rally ten pm Eastern for Trump in Vegas. The Democratic ticket focused on swing states today, laser focus on the Blue Wall for Kamala Harris Johnstown, Pennsylvania today, then onto Wilke's bar or Barry, depending on who you ask. Jonathan Tomorrow will give us a lesson and Tim Walls making his way through Michigan and Wisconsin today. You can write
this stuff before I tell you where they are. This is what it's going to be for the next eight weeks, of course, as we consider the idea of whether we'll have another debate. And here in Washington, it just got real quiet. Did you just sail right into work today? They're gone again. The House and Senate left town last night without a plan to fund the government, which will run out of money on September thirtieth. So they came back this week, they got nothing done, and they went home.
Jonathan Tomorrow covers Congress for a living at Bloomberg Government, and he's with us right now.
Jonathan.
This is a familiar feeling, not only watching everyone leave with no progress, but also staring down the bear of a shutdown that I keep hearing isn't going to happen.
What can you tell us?
Yeah, like you just said, there wasn't much progress this week. There was very little hook to note that actually happened in the Capitol. You know they were back from recess,
but you couldn't necessarily tell. But still there is a still feeling, there's this tension that there is the election writer around the corner about At the same time, that almost diffuses the tension because there's a belief that no party leader is going to bring their party into a shutdown this close to election day, with so many races still in the balance, there's a feeling that eventually they'll get to a compromise and it'll be a short term
spending resolution that lasts into some time into December.
Does this debate jeopardize potentially billions of dollars in federal disaster relief funds? I know Senator Brian Schatz is pretty worried about that. The Democrat from Hawaii, of course calling for help in life where the wildfire took place, But we are in the middle of a hurricane season right now.
Jonathan. Is this a problem?
Yeah, I mean it's a problem that Democrats are pointing to that if you just continue the current spending levels, then you're not gonna put in the money that the additional money that could be needed to deal with disasters that come along the way, that hurricanes and other natural disasters.
And it's one of several items where Democrats are saying, look, if you just keep the government running on its current levels, you know we're not providing some of the things that are needed to there, renew programs that are set to expire, or things like these disasters. So that's one of their main talking points about why they are arguing against a six month resolution that Speaker Mike Johnson has proposed, just say that it would leave the government on autopilot too long.
Well, so if we kick the can you know, three months, six months, I don't know what the duration ends up being here, can you count on then a supplemental request, an emergency funding request for disaster relief, maybe even a supplemental for the Pentagon and the lame duck session.
Yeah, I mean it's possible they could try to attach it to a short term bill that passes this month, but certainly at the end of the year. There's a long tradition, as you know, of the Christmas time kind of leading towards compromises. A lot of lawmakers have already are retiring or they've lost their reelections. Everybody in the building is more or less looking to get home for the holidays, and it suddenly motivates people to maybe cut
some deals and reach agreements. And there's a bunch of must pass things that always pile up at the end of the year, this spending bill would be another one that would get added to it, and it tends to grease the wheels when everybody knows that there's a lot that has to get done and little time to do it, or else they end up staying here for Christmas and New Year's.
Well, Jonathan, I know you're also working the campaign trail and covering a lot of really important races. You might have seen what Cook had to say about Montana overnight. In fact, Jessica Taylor is going to be on right after our conversation here. How many races are you looking at that are going to decide who controls the Senate following this cycle, I.
Mean the Senate. There's probably a good half dozen races that are potentials, but the ones that are really at the top are the Montana Senate race that you just mentioned, in the Ohio Senate race with Senator Shared Brown defending that seat as a Democrat. Those are really the two biggest ones where those are pretty red states and Republicans have a strong chance of winning. If they don't win those states, then then that's almost a political disaster for Republicans.
But they're favored to certainly win Montana, possibly win Ohio, and then after that it gets tougher for Republicans. Democrats are still playing defense just about everywhere else, but they have some pretty tested incumbents in states that are either slightly blue leaning or pretty right down the middle. But you know, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada all have potentially tough races, but those are just less difficult Horaine for Democrats in Ohio or Montana.
Bloomberg Government's Congress reporter Jonathan Tomorrow, Jonathan, it's great to see you.
Thank you so much for the insights here.
This is why so many people are talking about the likelihood of a Republican Senate and maybe a Democratic House.
Maybe they both flip in this cycle.
The note that dropped from the Cook political report, though, is what people are talking about today in Washington. Jessica Taylor writes, quote, Republicans are now an even heavier favorite to win back control of the Senate, regardless of the results at the top of the ticket. That's the important
take here. And yeah, we're looking at Montana specifically. As Cook moves the state, this Senate race from toss up to lean r. This is the Senator John Tester race of course, running for his political life here against Republican Tim Sheehey, I'm glad to say that Jessica Taylor is with us right now from Cook Senate and Governor's editor at the Cook Political Report. Jessica, it's been way too long.
Congratulations on driving the conversation today. I'm just curious to hear your rationale on this race in Montana.
Why well, I think it's just the math eventually catches up with you in some of these really red stays. As Jonathan was saying, you have Democrats are essentially playing defense everywhere, but nowhere more so than I think in Montana and Ohio. You know, if we're looking at where the Senate stands right now, Democrats have a fifty one to forty nine majority, but we have to remember that with West Virginia with Joe Manchin retiring, that seat is
going to go Republican. So we start at fifty to fifty. So even if Trump were to win reelection when another term, then Republicans would control that with breaking with the Vice president breaking the tie. But with Montana moving in that direction, we have seen pulling out in the past month or so that has shown his Republican challenger, former Navy Seal Tim Sheehey, opening up a slight lead. But more importantly, when I'm talking with sources in the state, it's just
that Tester he's sort of been their white whale. You know, he was elected in two thousand and six in the Democratic wave when they took back the Senate, defeated Republican Senator of Conrad Burns. They've run against him in twelve, they've run against him in eighteen with arguably weaker candidates than they have right now, and they've never sort of been able to get him underwater, while his favorables at this point are underwater.
And I think, just look at this.
It's the six It's a state that Trump won by sixteen points, and in a presidential year, I think this where midterm euro would get a different conversation like when Tester was able to win in twenty eighteen. In twenty twelve, when Obama was atop the ticket, it's a state that he won by thirteen and while Tester ran ahead of the ballot by seven points, running ahead by double digits this time, I think is just that much.
Harder interesting to hear you talk about Montana.
Maybe you can speak to why Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket does not move this race the way it might be other down ballot races.
I think it's just that Montana just becomes a rheter and redder state. I mean, she's not going to be playing there like they are in other states. And I think that it's just fundamentally you know, another difference I think is that you've seen a lot more conservative people moving into the state from sort of seeking more of a conservative refuge from places.
Like California, Oregon, and Washington.
They refer to them as sort of the cows moving in in fact, and you know, Tester's really underscoring that he's been there for generations. But when he was elected in two thousand and six, over half of Montana's were native Montana's. Now that's a little over a third, So you know, he sort of hits shee he is being in authentically Montana, not you know, sort of a dude rancher,
not a real rancher. But I think with again people moving into the state, I think just those Montana roots don't matter as much as they once did.
Well, they used to call George W. Bush's I think it was the first lady call him a windshield cowboy. So you mentioned Joe Manchon of West Virginia. Boy, you know, Democrats just can't seem to shake Joe mansion. He's of course left the party and independent now and he's weighing in on the race Maryland, which Cook of course rates as likely d that's Angela also Brooks. If you live around Washington, boy, you can't hide from these ads, from
either of them. So Joe Manchin Back's governor, Larry Hogan, the Republican in the state of Maryland.
Does it matter who's this for?
I mean that does overlap was sort of the western Maryland media market there into West Virginia, but I think that's a more conservative area of Maryland.
Really.
I think what also Brooks has to do is this is where she is incredibly helped by the top of the ticket. We talked about just the lean that you have to overcome and a Trump plus sixteen state, well, Maryland is a Trump is a Biden plus thirty three state. So Larry Hogan would have to pull off just an even bigger feat than John Tester would. Granted this as an open seat, and yes, he's one state wide before
is governor. But fundamentally, voters look at a vote for governor and a vote for vote for Senate very differently, and you can see that in the ads that also Brooks and Democrats are running underscoring that. Okay, you may have liked Larry Hogan, he would be a vote for Republican and a Republican controlled Senate, and you're going to see them, as you mentioned, we've already seen those on the air here in the DMV media market that they're
hammering that home. And I think with you, about a third of the electorate is black in Maryland, and she really also Brooks really needs to run up the score, particularly in Baltimore. Kamala Harris, a black woman atop the ticket, certainly helps also Brooks in that regard.
Okay, so that's really important.
Think of the difference between what we're talking about with Jessica here Maryland versus Montana, and the impact that Kamala Harris can have. It's limited, obviously, but this is one of the bluest states in the country, Jessica, and I wonder if Democrats are starting to get nervous we're seeing I mean, we're buried with ads from both of them. But I read this morning the backers Evangela Also Brooks have nearly tripled their TV, broadcast and digital ad buys this month compared to August.
What does that tell you about this race?
Well, I think it's just the Larry Hogan is better known than Angela's Brooks, and angel Also Brooks needs to increase her name ID, introduce herself to voters. You know, she won that primary over another incredibly well financed opponent and David Tron who's pent sixty two million dollars of his own money.
But people have been.
Used to voting for Larry Hogan, so you can't take anything for granted. But I think once Also Brooks just increases her name ID and tells people that she is the Democrat running that's going to help her.
Interesting.
I don't know if a lot of people in Maryland are walking around wondering about Joe Manchin. But I have to ask you about the presidential campaign because I don't get that much of an opportunity to talk to Jessica Taylor.
Here.
There's a fascinating There's a fascinating piece by Nia Malika Henderson at Bloomberg Opinion who says Larry Hogan should get involved in the presidential race and endorse Kamala Harris. Now, remember this is a very strange scenario in Maryland, so things might not seem logical because we're talking about such a blue state. But Nia says that Hogan is running about a perfect race for Senate that a Republican could run in Maryland. He puts it over the top by
endorsing a Democrat for president. Is that even possible in your view?
I think that would certainly help him. But I think fundamentally if you contindue you know, what they're saying in the ads is that you know, he would still be a Republican in the Senate and would caucus with Republicans. And I think that's the difference that you know, if you were say to say, I'm going to be an independent in the Senate and decide who I'm going to caucus. But that might help him.
You know.
Again, a lot of his ads have been very critical of former President Trump. They've you know, criticized him for January sixth and different things. Like if you closed your eyes and like listen to some of these ads, you would think they were coming from a Democrat. So he certainly is much farther to the left than your traditional Republican would be. But what republican, what Democrats have to hit him on is just that he was recruited into the race by Mitch McConnell and has said that he
would caucus as a Republican. So I think the only thing that could possibly change the trajectory as if he says, listen, I'd follow Joe Mangin's lead in the final months and be an independent, and I'd leave it up to you to who I'm going to caucus with.
Really interesting and a great conversation. As always, Jessica, we missed you. I'll come back and talk to this soon. We've only got about eight weeks left to talk about this, although I don't think it's going to be quite done in eight weeks. She's the Senate and Governor's editor for the Cook Political Report. In Making News Today at the top of the tip sheets with this move on Montana leans are I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington, and we thank you for joining us here on Balance of Power.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and thenroud Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Joe and I indeed are broadcasting live on Bloomberg TV and Radio from Washington, where a lot of the conversation has actually focused on the town of Springfield, Ohio. Part of this as a result of what's been happening online and the propagating of misinformation around Haitian immigrants eating pets in Springfield, but of course it actually made its way onto the debate stage. Donald Trump himself talked about the eating of dogs when he was sharing the stage with
Kamala Harris in Philadelphia. And we're seeing a real impact of that now as once again the Springfield City School District has had to close schools today, according to school officials, one middle school and evacuated two elementary schools because of threats that local police were informed of. And this is something that the President Joe is now addressing from the White House, saying there is no place in America for this. It has to stop.
This is not something we showed up at work. Looking to talk about again. We did talk about it on Tuesday night when this came up in the debate. Having heard about this, jd Vance said it had said it earlier in the day. The fact that the President went there knowing that Laura Lumer was with him on the plane to fill Adela had some folks scratching their heads. But okay, we move on. It was debunked by ABC News. They were criticized for doing that in real time, but
it has now become part of the stump speech. Kayleie, this wasn't just a one off during the debate with Kamala Harris. It came up again last night in Tucson, Arizona, expanding it to a whole new species. Here's Donald Trump.
Recording of nine to one to one calls.
Even show residents are reporting that the migrants are walking off with the town's geese.
They take in the geese, you know where the.
Geese are in the park in the lake, and even walking off with their pets.
My dog's been taken my dog, he says.
They're taking the geese in the park in the lake, not just the cats and the dogs. Let's round up our panel right now, Genie Schanzano, Senior Democracy Fellow with the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congressloomberg Politics contributor of course. Iona University political science professor Morigillespie is here as well today Bluestax Strategies, Republican strategist and veteran of John Bayner's Speaker's office.
Genie, I'm going to start with you on this.
Because look, it's people laugh, it's wacky, it's funny for some people, but there are some real racial undertones here on there. What's the point that Donald Trump's trying to make?
There?
Absolutely are First of all, it's you know, hard for me to wrap my head around here, and Kayley and you talk about pets being eating by migrants. I still still, you know, what are we seventy two hours in? It's hard to wrap my head around, but here we are in American politics, and you know, absolutely there is enormous racial undertones to this. But you know, the reality is this is what Donald Trump has trafficked in for many,
many years and quite frankly successfully. You know, I was at Trump Tower when he came down the escalator and announced in horrific langue which about immigrants in twenty fifteen. In the race for twenty sixteen, this is the same thing he garners attention. I remember we all said after that, boy, he doesn't have a shot in heck of the nomination, let alone winning, And there he went. So this has been a winning strategy for him. He is using it. President Biden is right, there is no place for it,
and yet here we are. So it is up to the American public and voters to say there's no place for it. Because as long as he is successful in these races, he continues to do this.
But more, if it was a winning strategy in the past, does that automatically make it a winning strategy now, especially when he was seen as having lost the debate by most Americans who watched it against Kamala Harris. Is this really what he needs to be pushing right now.
No, And I think that what you're seeing is again he's only playing to the magabas. He's not playing to win. He's not playing to reach people who are in the middle and maybe still undecided. This is not going to sway them to vote for don Trump. He's coming across largely on Tuesday Night as unhinged and when you're based on the decision about who to put in the oval office, it's not just about that person, but who they're going
to put around him. And so for many people who have said, you know, are you better off now than you were four years ago and things of that nature, Well, when you think about those first few years and during the Trump presidency, maybe you do feel like your life was better than it was pre COVID, you know, so maybe you do feel like your life was better than But I also caution people to remember who was around him at that time, and largely most of those people
who were in his cabinet or in his orbit have neither you know, left, were fired because they told him no, and he then replaced them with yes men and are out there saying that he should not be anywhere near the White House. So I think, you know, to only play the one portion of the Republican Party, and especially in such an extreme manner, is not an effective strategy for someone who would actually have wanted to win the White House. It's not helpful to down valid races either.
You think about these families and the impact, the real impact that it's having in Springfield is Kaylee mentioned Genie the spring Field City School District closed in middle school, Roosevelt Middle School, and evacuated another parent Woods and Snowhill Elementary School as well this morning after they got bomb threats via email. Cliff Park High School outside of that district was also evacuated. They're now working with the Dayton
FBI office to find the source of this stuff. There is a very clear and real example here of what the rhetoric can lead to, right.
There, absolutely is, And this is the danger of this. It takes one person to react to this kind of obviously clearly false statements and stories to spread that disinformation. And this is why leadership matters, because leaders like Donald Trump have to be responsible and to lead us in a more positive direction. He is not doing that by
spreading this information. That is clear. But the reality for Donald Trump is he's seen it be successful in the past, he believes it will be and as long as he continues to believe that, he is not going to stop. And this is where to Mora's point, we need other leaders on the Republican side to stand up and say enough is enough. We've seen that from Liz Cheney, We've seen that from Dick Cheney, We've seen it from Mike Pence. We've got to see it from others, including former President
George W. Bush, who took a hands off approach. They have to stand up and say we aren't going to countenance of this anymore. That's the only way. In addition to Donald Trump losing another election, and the Republicans may get tired of that if it happens.
I would point out Janian Morra for our audience here on Bloomberg TV in radio, that Donald Trump right now is giving remarks to the press in Los Angeles, California. He's opened them by saying he's here in California with a simple message for the American people. We cannot allow Comrade Kamala Harris and the communist left to do to America what they did to California. As we consider the
messaging we're getting from the former President Mora. He also has weighed in on the happenings here in Washington in recent days, suggesting that House Republicans, who of course are trying to avert a government shutdown eighteen days from now when funding expires, should indeed shut the government down if they don't get election security through along with it. The Safe Act of course, what we're referring to here making
illegal something that already is illegal, non citizens voting. Do you believe this Donald Trump, who is speaking right now, actually wants to see the government shut down as he is trying to win election.
Again, I think it proves to have a point that he doesn't actually want to win, because everyone in Washington and otherwise would know that a shutdown right before an election is political suicide. Quite frankly, you know, it's not something that anyone wants to do. They are down to
a matter of weeks before that happens. And to take this stance and take this position of you know, get everything you want or don't do anything at all, is not how Congress works, I mean again, and it shows the downside of having somebody in politics, as you know, the leader of the Republican Party, who doesn't actually understand
how it works. And I think that that's a detriment to what Mike Johnson is trying to accomplish and other leaders on Capitol Hill who are trying to make something work that they can get through to avoid this situation that both sides know would not farewell for them politically but in the polls. But also come election.
Day, well, Laura, you work for a speaker long enough to have a better sense of how this stuff works than most people behind the scenes in the House. You don't really think the government shuts down to you.
No, because they're not going to want to risk that potential. Because again, yes, most of the focus of the media and American people are focused on these two choices Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. But for Congress, what they're really focused on is, Okay, we need to get things done and then go home to our districts and tell them
why they should re elect us. And it's really important because Mike Johnson wants to grow his majority, which is very, very very thin, and Senate Republicans feel as though they have a chance that Fillip being the Senate. So if they want to accomplish those goals, they actually have to show that they've gotten something done. And you know, this week they've been focusing on China, but no one's really talking about it. And that's because all the oxygen the
room is constantly being taken by Donald Trump. Not to mention the fundraising dollars are also being taken by Donald Trump. So really, Republicans downbout have to separate themselves from the more president because he's hurting them in so many ways, from messaging, from fundraising, and just getting things accomplished to actually come out with a victory in November in just a matter of weeks.
Yeah, I want to mention one Republican, the Senator from North Carolina, Tom Tillis, just out with a post on x about someone who's seemingly getting closer to Donald Trump, has been traveling with him, in fact, this week, Laura Lumer. He calls her a crazy conspiracy theorist who regularly utters disgusting garbage intended to divide Republicans. A DNC plant. Couldn't do a better job than she is doing to hurt President Trump's chances of winning re election enough, Senator Tillis says, Genie.
Of course, even Marjorie Taylor Green has had some words for miss Lumer this week. Is that actually having this effect Donald Trump being surrounded with people like her?
You know, I don't think it takes Donald Trump being surrounded by other people for him to act the way he's acting. He purposely chooses to have her in his orbit. Tillis's statement is one hundred percent right. But this gets back to what you were just talking about with Mora. Donald Trump is not concerned about the Republican Party or the nation, as Kamala Harris said, He's concerned about himself and his future. This is a man facing jail time
right after this election. He needs to win. Why is he willing to have the government shut down in terms of pushing this need for a Save Act? Because he wants to set the groundwork that the election was unfair. If he does lose, then he is going to do the same thing he has done after every election, particularly twenty twenty, and say the election was stolen. So he's setting the groundwork. So I don't think it takes Laura Lumer to do that. But Tom Tillis is right, it is not for the campaign.
All right.
Jeanie Shanzeno and Mara Gillespie our political panel today, Thank you so much for joining us. We'll have more coming up on Balance of Power right here on Bloomberg TV and radio.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, car Play and then Proud Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
And as we consider who these policies are really aimed at attracting this specifically no tax on overtime that Donald Trump is now talking about trying to get to the blue collar that's vote, and we know that it's probably the blue collar vote in a very small number of states specifically that this is trying to target. As the candidates compete in the battlegrounds extensively.
They're in those states right now. I think Spencil Vanya, it's Michigan.
It's Wisconsin. That's exactly where they've been spending the bulk of their time. As we mentioned earlier, he's in Nevada, latter Las Vegas, where you've got organized labor, the Culinary Workers Union. They're going to like this storylines too, I suspect.
Yeah.
Of course Georgia is still in play as well. And that's where we go next. As we turn to Andre Gillespie, who is a professor of political science at Emory University, Welcome back to Balance of Power. Andre, it's great to have you. If we could just take a look at Donald Trump's proposal in isolation for a moment. This notion of not taxing overtime hours for blue collar workers, is that a policy that could actually garner him more support? Does that work well?
I mean, I think he's trying to appeal to lowering taxes of working people. I think in all of the proposals that have been made about reducing taxes, eliminating taxes on tips, eliminating taxes on social security, I think the bigger question is is this legislatively dead on arrival? Like these our decisions that presidents cannot make unilaterally, these are decisions that are going to have to go through in
a tax bill. And I think it would be a question of could this get through a divided Congress if neither party has control of the Congress, and if it turns out that we have divided government where the executive and the legislative branches are controlled by different parties, does this have any chance of passage? And so I think the deficit discussion that you've been having is an important
consideration in some that folks would likely bring up. And there still are members of the Republican Party in particular who are concerned about deficits, and they may raise some objections to this part of the proposal, especially now that it's become even more expansive.
It's interesting you make that point under it because Donald Trump has gone out of his.
Way to make part of his pitch that he doesn't.
Need Congress to do all of the things that he's proposing. You're right, tax policy is going to be a knockdown, drag out fight in Congress here, and it'll be interesting to see how that plays depending on who wins the White House. But when you're talking about tariffs, when you're talking about the greatest mass deportation in American history, as he calls it, or world's history, whatever that may be, he does not need Congress for that, does he.
So there are some things that he might be able to take care of through executive order, but even there a separation of powers is likely to come into play, because there is very little doubt that if he were to try to enact some of these things due to laterally that there would not be some type of judicial intervention where folks would try to go to the courts to try to enjoin him in some way, shape or form.
We can look as evidence of that the Muslim band that he instituted shortly after he took office in twenty seventeen, there were lawsuits that they were enjoined and did get all the way to the Supreme Court, And the policy that ended up going into effect actually looked a little bit different than the one that President Trump issued when he first issued that executive order right after he was inaugurated as president.
Well, we may or may not hear more on this policy and others from Donald Trump on a debate stage in the future, or Kamala Harris for that matter. If Donald Trump is to believed right now on, be believed right now on, there will not be another debate that happens between these two. After Kamala Harris widely was perceived to have won the one that took place this week, how soon should we expect that to be born out in poles if at all?
Well, there have been some poles that have come out, you know, in the last day or so, and so what they're suggesting is that this race is still a statistical dead heat. So it doesn't look like Kamala Harris has had a significant enough bump that you could actually
say that this was a boon for her. And so I think the larger question, as I know some of your earlier guests have said, is what do the poles look like in a couple of weeks, And then I think that there would be a question of how much fallout does Donald Trump have to take from his decision to not engage in the debate. Could he get baited by Democrats calling him a coward or a chicken, or does he see some type of shift in the poles
that would suggest that he absolutely needs to debate. I think, you know, one of the things that is really interesting is that Donald Trump has usually been pretty effective in being a to spin things in his favor, and so the excuse is that he's made for not wanting to debate by declaring himself the winner and saying that only losers want rematches, you know, has struck me is actually pretty conportionist in their point of view. I know that his supporters, you know, will go along with that point
of view and start echoing it. But if it looks like it's going to start to hurt him, we might hear him talk about how he has changed his mind and then try to tell us that this is what he thought all the time. So, you know, I think that's a largely a function of Donald Trump really being allowed to have free rein at the spin. But if it starts to not work, then we might see him pivot, as we've seen him pivot on other issues.
Interesting andre well, we consider what's happening in Congress right now. The big talk is about whether we'll have a government shut down later this month. No one seems to think that's going to happen. But there's an important event that's underway this week in Washington, a big annual event for
the Congressional Black Caucus. They're holding their legislative convention right now, and we've been having conversations with some of their members over the past couple of days, including Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, the Democrat from Texas, joined me last evening on the late edition of Balance of Power to talk about the CBC's priorities moving forward in this Congress and what might emerge next year. She reached for the issue of voting rights of voting reform.
Here's what she said for.
Me on day one is voting rights. That is my priority all around, because if we can stop some of the jerrymandering, because we have lost the Voting Rights Act in so many ways, we only have you know Section two, and it's hanging by a thread right now. And when we're talking about making sure that in states like Texas we have representation that is actually reflective of the will of the people, we can solve so many problems.
On for just the John Lewis Voting Rights Act see the light of day again. If Kamala Harris gets elected.
Well, it really will depend on what the bounce power is in Congress. If Republicans control any chamber, it's still not going to go anywhere. And it's still also important to keep in mind that in the Senate you would have to sort of break sort of normal rules in order to allow majority votes. So as I would understand it, I wouldn't expect that that vote would be able to survive a cloture vote. So I think that, you know,
it's pretty grim. We're not looking at like, even if Democrats are able to maintain control of the Senate, we're not looking at them coming anywhere near a sixty vote majority. And so even if they had the majority of the House of Representatives, it would still be highly unlikely that they would be able to get it through the Senate, as was the case in twenty twenty one when they were first pushing this through.
Andre we just have a minute left, but before we let you go, as we consider the majority of the House of Representatives, if the government shuts down at the end of this month, what is that actually going to do to Republicans electoral ots.
So I'm assuming that Republicans will be concerned about that, and I think it will be a big question about how Democrats actually choose to use that for their event. You know, if this were happening a year ago, there would be time for the party that is blamed for
the shutdown to recover from that. But happening so close to a national election, I found it hard to believe that Democrats wouldn't try to make hay of the situation and try to blame government dysfunction on Republican control and try to make the case in swing districts and in districts where Republicans are vulnerable that the Republican Party should not be in charge of a chamber at this point because they are being overrun by extremists who don't want
to get anything done. And so I think that those are the objects that is trying to navigate and part of the reason why he's been trying to, you know, get this done as quickly as beneficially as possible.
Well, we got eighteen days to figure it out.
I'm great to see Andre Gillespie Emory University and a smart conversation as always here on Balance of Power.
I'm Joe Matthew with Kaylee Lines. This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then roun Oo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
We spend so much time talking about the horse race, the policy proposals, of course, the debate this week, some of the wild rhetoric that we heard on the stump in the last forty eight hours. We don't always think about the job that they're working for, and the latest from David Rubinstein, the highest calling. We've both been curled up with this book for a minute conversations on the
American presidency. You start reading about all of the presidents, including by the way, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and I'm left with the same question, why would anyone ever want this job?
Yeah, very difficult one, of course, perhaps the most difficult to attain, at least in American politics, in the way in which this Republic operates, and of course one that may be held differently, viewed differently by the people who have inhabited the office as you look over the history of the now forty six presidents, and twenty of them are featured in this new book. And we're very lucky
to have David Rubinstein, the author here with us. He, of course, is co founder and co chair of the Carlisle Group, also a host on Bloomberg Television in addition to being an author of this book. Always a busy man. Thank you for making some time for us here in studio in Washington. It's worth pointing out while this is in part titled Conversations on the American Presidency, it's also conversations with a number of former and even the current president.
You spoke with both Donald Trump and Joe Biden when writing this book. We talk a lot about the contrast between these two men. Did you pick up on how they may differently view the office of the presidency? Here was in more overlap than you expected.
They do have different views on it and how to do it. I interviewed both of them on spar interviews, with Joe Biden in the Oval Office for an hour alone, and I've known him for a long time, and I think he felt comfortable with me, and I've had a lot of interactions with him over the years. I've interviewed
Donald Trump before. In this particular case, he was getting ready for a trial, and so it wasn't exactly in the Oval Office that I was doing it, but I had had dinner with him not too long earlier and had gotten ready for the interview. And they both have different perspectives on the job. And I might call it the highest calling, because this is clearly the most important
job in the world. Since Woodrow Wilson went to Paris to negotiate the Treaty of Versailles, it's been clear that the President United States is the most important person in the world, with very rare exceptions. And so you have to say to yourself, why do people want that much responsibility? You asked in the beginning, and think about it. John Kennedy was assassinated, Linda Johnson driven out of office, Richard Nixon in fact, had to force to resign. Gerald Ford
lost reelection, Jimmy Carter lost reelection. Ronald Reagan was almost assassin. George Herbert Walker Bush not reelective. So you have to say, why do people want to put themselves through this and to be president? You have now spend two years campaigning bad food, no exercise, no family contact, and it's not a wonderful thing to do. But the reason is that people who are ambitious say, I want to do something
to help my country. I want to show that I've done something useful for society, and it's the ultimate job in the world for sure.
Then after that big fight, you get there and you realize the golden bars surround you. You talk to both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and I'm compelled, I believe. On two pages facing each other, Donald Trump talked about the loneliness you Austin, What does it like to be in the White House? The loneliness? You asked Joe Biden, is this as fun a job as you thought it was going to be? He said, fun is not the word that I would use. Maybe they have something in common there.
Well, every president thinks it's lonely because in the end, every major decision that the federal government has to make and it's difficult, it gets the president because it was easy to make a decision about something they would have gotten incided by somebody else. Yeah, so they get and it's said to be a very lonely job. And what Donald Trump was referring to is that in several holidays the government was more or less shut down. He had to stay there to wait for the government to open
up and maybe sign a bill. So he didn't go down to mar A Lago for I think it was three of the four years he was in the White House alone during the holidays. And you know, Joe Biden has spent a fair amount of time there in long hours as well. One of the reasons presidents like Camp David is you can go there, you are with your family typically, but you don't have all the Secret Service watching you every second, you know, And it's not quite the federal prison that the White House is often called
by people. Ronald Reagan said it was the I guess, the high water mark of the federal penitentiary system. Because when you're in the White House, everybody watches everything you do. You can't walk around outside. It's a very complicated and lonely job. But again, many people spend time trying to get there, and a lot of people want that job.
Well, and Joe Biden wanted to keep the job up until just recently. You spoke with him in April of this year, so he still was attempting to seek a second term at that time. Do you think the tenor your conversation would have been different had he already made the decision to not seek reelection and endorse Kamala Harrison?
Probably sure.
He thought he was going to be the nominee of the party, and he wanted to be the nominee of the party, and obviously events unfolded. When history of this election is written, the two most consequential decisions I think will be Donald Trump's decision to do an early debate, because by doing an early debate, he in effect knocked Biden out and therefore he now has an opponent that
might be tougher. And Joe Biden's decision to ask for an early debate, because had he not had an early debate and the debate was in September October would have been too late to have him replaced, probably so both of them will probably look back, depending who wins, and say, maybe I shouldn't have had an early debate.
You dedicated this book in part to Ted Sorenson, which is fascinating to me. Of course the force behind as we've learned, Profiles and Courage, but also JFK's inaugural address that we choose to go to the moon speech. Before you joined us, Kayley and I were talking about in seeding animals in Springfield, Ohio. What would Ted Sorenson make of the rhetoric on this campaign.
Ted Sorenson, for those who don't know, was a very young aide who worked for President Kennedy before that for Senator Kennedy, and he was the person who was probably very involved in writing let's say, Profiles and Courage. Ye President Kennedy or then Senator Kennedy was ill, probably difficult to write too much of it himself. And then the inaugural dress, which I think was the greatest inaugur dress of my lifetime, was written in large part by Ted Sorenson, and I admired him.
I didn't think I could be a candidate.
I wasn't rich enough, smart enough, handsome enough, charming enough to be a candidate, but I thought I could be an advisor, and so he was the person I went to work for when I practiced when I began practicing law in New York. And I greatly admire him. I was just with his widow the other night when I was doing a talk about this book in New York. And you know, Ted was an inspiration to me because he knew how to write in a way that very few people have been able to do since then. He
just had a way with words. And if you think of the inaugural address to Kennedy, ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country. Those are words that you know are going to ring with us for the rest of our lives.
Would he see this as a world in which political rhetoric has regressed? Though these are poetic, iconic speeches you're talking about, turned to twenty twenty four.
We don't value presidential rhetoric in quite the way that we probably used to. You know, we used to talk about great presidential speeches. Lincoln's second inaugural dress, FDR's inaugural address, the first one, or Kennedy's inaugur dress, today we often don't focus on the rhetoric as much or the speeches because the craftsmanship is not quite as fine tune. But there's not as much emphasis on it being fine tuned.
People just wanted to know what is the president going to do, what's he going to do for me, and that kind of thing. And it's a different world. Remember when when John Kenny gave his speech inaugural address. In those days, there was no internet, there was no social media. The evening news shows for fifteen minutes. There were three networks, each one did fifteen minutes a night, and then the only papers that people cared about were the Washington Post
in the York. There was no other way to worry about conveying ideas, and so it was a different world today. If you're President of the United States, you're working in the White House every minute, you have to focus on social media, who's saying what, and you have to be attuned to what's going all around the world, and you never really are free from social media or TV networks never well.
And that's one of the ways in which the office perhaps has changed, is you look from George Washington to present day. One thing, though, has remained the same. Every single person you talk about in this book is a man that potentially could change. If Kamala Harris wins in November, does that change the nature of the office once what Hillary Clinton called that highest glass ceiling has actually been shattered.
Of course, you think about it. We've had forty six men serve in this position, no women. Interestingly, when the country was set up, women weren't even allowed to vote or in any way participate in government. We obviously changed that with the nine Amendment. It is amazing that you have more than half the population's female, but we still have an and had a female president. We may well
this time, who knows. I think Hillary Clinton came as close as any woman has ever come, because had she won one or two more states, she would have been president of United States and we would have broken that glass ceiling.
I'd love to hear your view on this race. Now.
Everybody wants to know what's on your mind, and I'm sure there are some things you can tell us and maybe you don't want to share, but you understand the conversation on Wall Street.
What is the great fear right.
Now when it comes to Kamala Harris is that the idea of taxing capital gains on unrealized gains. Wall Street seems to be more comfortable with the idea of Trump, despite pretty well performing stock market under the Biden administration.
Well, I'll tell you what I think people think, but I don't want to say these are my views necessarily, But people on Wall Street, and remember Wall Street generally is focused on the stock market and making money and other things, not kind of values that a president might have. But they're worried that taxes will go up on businesses and wealthy businesses. They're worried that and wealthy individuals. They're
worried that the regulatory environment will be very harsh. The anti trust environment has not been favorable for a lot of M and A A transactions, and they're worried that it might continue that way. They're worried that the people that she might put into regulatory positions might be tougher own business than even the ones that Joe Biden put in.
So that's what they're worried about.
I'm not sure I share all those worries, but I think many people on Wall Street saying, look, we have to hedge our bets, and Wall Street is all about hedging right. So they are focused very much on the Senate because the Senate can very well go Republican. You only need to switch one or two seats if we
go Republican. And so if the Senate were to go Republican and with the filler buster rules, I think many people in Wall Street who don't like Kamala Harris would say, well, we can block almost anything through the Senate.
Well, and that's what we have to keep reminding ourselves is we get these various policy proposals from these candidates, there is only so much they can do on their own without Congress backing them. So it's important to remind ourselves of rules that have to be followed as far as how legislating goes. I want to ask you about a rule completely unrelated to politics though, but related to of course your interest in sports. Is an owner of teams like the Orioles. There's a new rule in the
NFL that allows private equity. In Bloomberg's reporting today, the chargers that Dolphins are now getting interest. Is this something you're looking at, David Well.
I would say that it was public publicly disclosed that the firm that I'm the co chairman of Carlisle is part of a consortion that has been authorized by the NFL to buy stakes that go up to ten percent. And so all I can say is what's been said already in the press. But I do think that sports have been a very attractive investment for the last couple of years. Very few people have made major sports investments that have lost money. Now, some people say it's a bubble,
it can't keep going on this way. The other hand, nobody seems to be running away from the bubble. And one of the reasons is that sports is now global and because betting has occurred, and betting is now very popular. Betting has fueled, I think, interest in sports, and so people are much more interested in sports than when I was a child because there's betting involved.
Is in addition to rooting for your home team.
So, as you know, I bought the Bottom Oriols or control of the Bottom Oriols with partners recently, and I'm now learning the ins and outs of what it means to be a sports owner. And you know, every time we win, I'm feeling deliriously happy that I'm you know, and when we lose, I feel like the dagger in my heart, and so you know, I wish I you know, I was a junior. I was a Little League All
Star when I was eight years old. I feel like going into the players and say, look, let me tell you what I learned when I was eight years old about how to hit or how to pitch. But they don't seem that interested.
We only have a minute left. I'm a huge fan. I know you are too, Kailey of peer to peer. I know what my favorite episodes are. What's been your favorite interview in this experiment?
When I did Oprah, it was pretty interesting because she said to be a great interviewer. She says, I'm not a great interviewer, I'm a great listener. And she's right because you have to learn to what person is saying and then pivot. And that was really interesting. I did George Bush and Bill Clinton together one time and that was, I think, really good. And Warren Buffett was great when I did him. So I like all my interviews. It's like I luck all my children, right, So I don't
think anyone is more of a favorite. But what I like the best is when I know the person reasonably well yeah, and when I have you try to use my sense of humor, they along with it. You know, when somebody it doesn't pick up that I'm asking a joke, it's not as much fun. So like when I asked one time Bill Gates, do you think of he had a college degree, you might be more successful in life?
He didn't get that it was a joke and he gave a serious answer. So you know, I like people that can pick up on the joke.
Sometimes that's great. The humor goes a long way around here.
I have to say, by the way, the McDonald's CEO, why does the coke taste better?
At that?
I learned something whenever I watch Peer to here. David Rubinstein a great treat to have you at the table. Congrats on the book. It's called the highest calling Conversations on the American Presidency. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.