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Nine thousand dollars in counting, Kaylee, Donald Trump found in contempt of court actually happened today, And we're not done yet, I say in counting, because there's another hearing on violating his gag order set for Thursday. So this could be the beginning of a new cycle in which we see multiple thousand dollars fines rolling through this trial.
Sure, but the judge even is disappointed, perhaps with how little he can find Trump for these violations. As you say, nine thousand dollars for nine different counts. He mentioned in this order the incredible wealth of this defendant, in particulars
Donald Trump is a billionaire, at least on paper. And then, therefore, in order to deter him from further violations, did warn in the order the Court will not tolerate continued wilful violations of its lawful orders, and, if necessary and appropriate, under the circumstances, it will impose incarceratory punishment threatening jail time.
Yes, incarceratory punishment not going to happen is what we have been told by every legal analyst in this case, not to a former president. The judge probably knows that too well.
I guess we'll see us another legal analyst.
Yeah, let's find out agrees with that view.
Robert Wurders with us now he is a criminal and constitutional law attorney. Welcome back to balance of power, sir. It does raise the question of whether or not Trump will ever be deterred from violating the gag order if he doesn't actually face any jail time for it.
Right.
Does do you think the former president knows that this threat might be entirely empty or do you not think that it is so?
Well, if I was the judge, I think about putting in jail if he continues to violate it. The judge is being very careful. If you read his gag order, he talks about or at least his findings here. He talks about being very mindful of mister Trump's First Amendment rights, especially as a candidate. He's betting over backwards. But the bottom line, this criminal defendant has to start behaving appropriately and you cannot be attacking witnesses on social media media
and in the public and it has to stop. And the judge is going to probably be left with no choice, even though he realizes that mister Trump may then try to use that politically if he gets put in jail.
No choice but to incarcerate the former president. Nobody sees that happening, really though, do they.
Well, it certainly could if I was when.
I think, as the Secret Service going to get in the cell with them, how do they do that?
Yeah, I've kind of thought about that sometime. I mean, you know, the Secret Service if he gets convicted on one of the federal charge. You know, Secret Service agents usually go to Florida, you know, after with the president, and the fact they would have to hang out in Levenworth, Kansas may not have been what they were they wanted to sign on for if he gets convicted of the federal charge. But yeah, there's all kinds of logistical problems, and the judge knows this, and that's what he's got
the concern. And this is all part of the reason why Donald Trump is getting preferential treatment that no other criminal defendant would get but at some point we have to respect the process. And if a criminal defendant is continuing to make public statements that impune the system, that impugned his own trial and threaten witnesses, calling them sleeves bags, which is what he's done here, the court has to
step in and do something. And I think the judges left with frustration and what it would be.
Yeah, I guess it begs the question to your point. He already has made his feelings about these potential witnesses quite known, calling them sleeves bags on multiple occasions. And sure part of this order was that he has to take down those true social posts in question or remove a few items from his campaign website. But isn't the damage already done?
Oh? It most certainly is. I think what the judges trying to do is stop any further damage. So what's to stop then this particular criminal defendant from all of a sudden posting like he actually has that this jury is unfair obviously, and then people start to take matters into their own hands and trying to find out who the jurors are and influence those jurors. Look, you wouldn't put up with a mafia defendant or a you know, homicidal defendants behaving this way. So you shouldn't put up
with mister Trump. I mean, you know, if he wants to attain the highest office in the country, he should understand how things work and how the rule of law works. And you know, I guess the judge would face some frustration, But like I said at the start, I would seriously start considering that. And he's warned Trump about it, and he's going through a very by step process to the point where the judge may have no other choice.
Well, the optics would certainly be historic. As we spend time with Robert mcwad or, criminal and Constitutional law attorney Robert, there is testimony taking place today. In fact, we're hearing from Gary Farrow, a banker who helped Michael Cohen establish the account that was used to pay off Stormy Daniels. We're going to hear a lot of sensational testimony we already did, I think arguably with David Pecker. How important is this business being had today in this week.
Well, it's crucial because it's forming all the steps for the prosecutor to show the underlining crime. I also must say, you know, the prosecution has put on a very smart case. What they have done, and they didn't single this signaled this beforehand, is they have actually broadened this case. It's not just about Stormy Daniels, and it's not just about
even Susan mcdodle. It's about a much broader conspiracy that Donald Trump entered into to make himself president of the United States by manipulating the media and violating campaign finance. So Stormy Daniels and Karen mcdoodle and all the other people are just one small part of this broader scheme. And the testimony from mister Pecker and the banker today shows the much bigger scheme. I mean, this was not
just one bank account used to pay Stormy Daniels. This was a little slush fund that should have been politically reported because it's helping a candidate achieve office, and it's being used for all kinds of little nefarious things, including killing stories and providing payments to people to make sure the stories don't go. And that's what the National Acquired editor provided, and now the banker is providing the mechanism for how that was done, and it's step by step
and much broader. What the implication of that is is okay, go ahead and attack Stormy Daniels. And even if you don't believe her, look at the much bigger picture. She was only one small part. And that's what the prosecution has done well.
And ultimate, we don't even know how many witnesses will be called, as they haven't revealed the full list. We also don't know, Robert, if Donald Trump will testify himself And pardon me, I didn't go to law school, so I don't know if this is an ill informed question, But would he be limited by a gag order as to what he could say on the stand when testifying in his own defense or is that actually an opportunity for him to safely plead his case.
Well, first of all, your question is perfectly intelligent. He would not be limited, and that's actually the point. You know. What we try to do with trials is protect the integrity of the process so that you don't have extraneous evidence coming in from tweets and things like that. In a trial, he can take the west witness stand and testify as to any relevant thing that relates to this charge. He can say all kinds of things that he is
not allowed to say. In another public situation, because he will be under oath, he was subject to cross examination, and he will be under a process, so he most certainly can. So he is not really being gag nor is his First Amendment rights really being implicated, because he will get a chance to speak like any other American who's facing trial, and he will get a chance to give his side of the story.
You wouldn't let him do that if you were representing him, would you.
Well, First of all, a defendant has an absolute Fifth Amendment right to testify. It is their decision and it is always there to say. If I were his lawyer, I would attempt to sit on him, to keep him away from the witness stand for two reasons. One is he is a uniquely bad advocate for himself. And number two, it opens the door for all kinds of what would be called impeachment evidence. So, for instance, if you're testifying, I can bring in evidence that you're just a bald
faced liar. Now I can't just bring and evidence if you don't testify, because the evidence would go to impeach you. It's not whether you're a liar or not is not the evidence. It's the fact that your testimony, cannot believe it on the matters that are important. So when you testify, it opens the door for all kinds of things legally. So that's again one reason. And of course the first
reason is Donald Trump. In every single situation historically where he has testified, he has failed and done very very poorly, and the jurors do not like him. And so for that reason. So as a criminal defense attorney, you know, I'm are all of a sudden getting nervous just at the thought that a defendant like him would testified. But it's their choice.
This is why you want to make worder representing you when that day comes. Robert, it's good to see you again. I really appreciate the time. We've enjoyed the conversations. We look forward to the next one here because Kaylie, we've got at least another six weeks on this. We haven't
even gotten to the sensational testimony that we're expecting. Donald Trump, of course, holding sway over the House of Representatives, and a lot of folks thought that Mike John and the Speaker of the House was safe, if only because of the bodyguard in the schoolyard named Donald Trump. But HACKEM Jeffrey showed up today too, and it looks like Mike Johnson is going to be holding that gavel for the rest
of this Congress. Megan Scully joins US Live in Washington for a quick beat on this because it's an important development today that otherwise would be a lead story as you cover Congress for US here at Bloomberg. Megan, interesting development. Actually hear it from the leadership as opposed to a couple of Democrats have said they might stay home or vote to help Mike Johnson. The parties behind him.
Now yes, So, as you said, Senate, our House Democratic leaders put out statements today pretty extraordinary, saying that they would basically move to save Speaker Johnson. But this is all very interesting because it was almost like they were trying to put out a fire that was almost out. The motion margin. Taylor Green's motion to vacate was all but dead and increasingly thought thinking perhaps you would not
actually go to the floor to activate it. Then she immediately took to Twitter and indicated that it is likely that she will do that.
Well, so then it raises the question of whether or not she's bluffing or she actually will do that, and, as she say, make everyone go on the record with a vote on this motion to table. Even if it gets tabled this time, there's nothing that would stop her from trying again and again and again and trying to see if Democratic resolve cracks.
Right, Sure, she could keep trying. I think Donald Trump is a big wild card here. He has backed Speaker Johnson. He's also a close ally of Marjorie Taylor Green. She's not listening to him, we don't think this time around. But what happens next time? I think it also depends on what legislation they might take up in the intervening weeks, whether or not they he decides suddenly to move forward with the long stalled impeachment into President Biden. Now that could make him some friends.
On the right.
So did Hokim Jeffries just make his life more difficult. I'm trying to understand where we are in this whole saga here, because I know Marjorie Taylor Green wants to get everybody on the record. This potentially makes it impossible for him to be re elected as a Republican Speaker, but it keeps the job now, Yes, So is this good or bad friend?
He becomes speaker in name only? Is that especially Marjorie Taylor Green called him the Democratic House Speaker in her tweet.
Not a great look for Mike Johnson.
No, it's not particularly somebody as conservative as Mike Johnson. Angie Craig, who is a gay member of Congress who staunchly opposes Johnson on his opposition two same sex marriages to you know, pretty much his full social agenda, put out a statement saying that she would support him, that she would vote to table this motion. Stunning, absolutely stunning that he where he is getting his support from right now.
It's good for him in the short term, but in the long term, these aren't the people that he would traditionally have in his corner.
Well, Marjorie Taylor Green is calling it the uniparty, and she said forcing this would be a coming out party for all of these people who are supposedly members of that. But maybe uniparty is just another way of freezing the idea of bipartisanship. Yeah, Megan, and frankly, the reality is, if anything further is going to make it out of this House of Representatives, it's going to need bipartisanship.
Yes, absolutely, I mean they've been relying on bipartisanship because the margin is so narrow and they're bound to be people who disagree. But going forward, I think he's going to have a very steep hill to climb, and we'll be relying more on democratic votes than ever before.
We just spent months and months banging our heads against the wall trying to figure out a way to fund the government for the rest of this fiscal year. The President's already dropped his budget for the next one. There
was a Republican hearing on a Republican budget. But it's an election year, so we're going to go all the way through the summer and fall doing nothing here, right, we'll smash into a deadline, kick the can in December or in October rather September thirtyth and the fiscal year ends, and nothing will be done until after the presidential election. Speaking anything close to what might be truth ish.
Yes, there are some things they have to get done. First order of business is an FAA authorization, yes, right, which is becoming a Christmastry.
In the next couple of weeks. We understand, we've talked about that a lot. When it comes to funding.
Though, when it comes to funding.
This speaker's weakened to the extent that you're talking about, this is going to be very difficult.
Absolutely, But then is there emergency funding needs that need to be considered in the intervening months? You know, does Ukraine need more money? Does Israel need more money? Is there a natural disaster within the United States? Really rebuilding the collapse bridge in Baltimore? Yeah, still an open question.
True.
Jia also has not been attached to anything as of now. Megan Skully, great to see you, Thank you, Thank you. As always, you're.
Listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and thenroid Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.
As we turn our attention to the situation in Israel, which we can't talk about without mentioning the situation on Columbia University's campus where dozens of protesters have barricaded themselves now inside Hamilton Hall. This happened in the wee hours. It was after midnight. They barricaded the doors, they blocked the entrances, and this is going to be a standoff.
It's just unclear how it ends. They've made it very clear that they will not be leaving without force and more where that came from cal Poly Humboldt, north of San Francisco. Students barricading themselves for a week in a building that includes the President's office. They have called it Intifada Hall. At least forty people in an encampment. University of Texas Austin arrested yesterday nine protesters. University of Flora taken into custody. Police and riot gear arresting people. Multiple
people at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond. This is a big deal domestically here for the Biden administration, and it is a big deal geo politically for the administration, which is why we wanted to get some time today with Dale Buckner. He's the CEO of Global Guardian, retired Army colonel who specializes in many of the functions that we're seeing the IDF pursue in their war against Hamas. Dale,
it's great to have you back on Bloomberg. We're talking today. Importantly, I just gave you the backdrop on what's happening here on campuses. We're talking about a new ceasefire proposal that would include the transfer of hostages, Israel lowering the threshold the minimum number of hostages it needs apparently to agree to this at least short term truce.
Dale.
What would an exchange look like and what would that mean as a millilitary mission?
Joe, So, I think one the exchange is clearly the closest we've been in the last two hundred plus days. Two we're talking about twenty to thirty three Israelis being hostages being exchanged for upward of nine hundred prisoners. Are the basic terms. Now, these terms can ebb and flow, but that's really as of this morning, what's kind of
out in the open source, if you will. So from a peer logistical standpoint, there would be a military component of this to receive the Israeli hostages and to transfer the Palestinians back, So there is an element of logistics here. Clearly Egypt has taken a material role, even beyond what the Kataris were doing, and we're now starting to see real effects. So this is hopeful and we should be optimistic that we are as close to a deal as we've been in the last two hundred plus days.
Dale, I want to ask you about the other potential outcome here, and that's hostage extraction, and that's something that you used to specialize in. Number one. Are you surprised that Israel has not been more proactive special forces of the IDF to save hostages to bring them back to Israel because we've seen them succeed in a couple of cases with hostage extraction. And if they were to conduct those missions, would they be able to protect civilians that are surrounding them.
Yeah, Look, it's an incredibly difficult mission set. Israel has special operations just like the United States with Sealed Team six and Delta Force that's specialized in this kind of hostage rescue. That being said, you have to imagine that as of today, those hostages are so well protected by hamas is that is their golden goose. They know that
if they lose that, they lose all their leverage. So even with thirteen the estimate of thirteen thousand hamas being a triated, even with that high estimate, you have to assume that they are still the hostages are incredibly well protected, and that a mission like that to go in and extract those hostages would be incredibly high risk, and to your point, there would be very high risk to civilian casualties. So, as you started with, do I think they should be
more aggressive? I don't think the conditions are set where they could be more aggressive to this point. If we don't get a deal done and the fighting continues and the forces surrounding the hostages are at treated, then and only then do I think you could see a very offensive and aggressive mission to go after the hostages directly.
What form does the fighting take at this time? Dale, What should our listeners and viewers expect as negotiators get to the table in Cairo? Does that mean a slow down in military activity for the IDF or an increase knowing that window might be closing.
Yeah, I think it's it's a bit of both right right now. I think tactically, physically on the ground, you're going to see a slowdown to see if we can get a deal done. In the background, and you saw it this morning if you're paying attention or watching NETANYAHUU came out and said we're going to Rafa with or without a deal. I do believe, or we believe, that's just pressure it's a bit of political positioning. So to answer your question very directly, I think tactically you'll see
a slowdown. It won't last long. We've got to see in the next twenty four to seventy two hours are we making progress in the negotiations. If there is progress, then I think there's a slowdown, and ideally you see a pause. What's on the table right now in open source is a forty day pause the exchange, and then after that Phase one then an enduring pause leading to a permanency spires. Is what's ideal here. All of that, It's too early to know, and we could lose the
deal tonight. We could lose it in five minutes, sure, but ultimately you will see a tactical slowdown until we see the fruit of this negotiation.
A lot of people thought the invasion of Rafa would be underway by now dale and we all remember Benjamin Netanya who's saying that a date had been selected that was weeks ago. Is the invasion of Rafa just a bargaining chip for israel I?
Do believe it is?
Now?
There's one caveat at some point there's an estimated six Hamas brigades that are still securing that area, and there are still tunnels that go from Gaza into Egypt. At some point IDF is going to have to address that. But I think Netna who is willing to put that on pause? And I do think if he can get this exchange with the global pressure, let alone the domestic pressure he has, if he can get this exchange done and I cease fire, that's going to buy him time.
And I do believe he would pause on going after Rafa. That being said, if that did, if that did happen, the exchange was successful, I do believe next step for Israel is they are going to turn north. They're going to go after Hesblah in Lebanon, and that is going to be in the next phase of the war. And then lastly, let's assume that combat operations stop tomorrow in Gaza. We still have an enormous amount of challenges ahead. Who's going to control it doesn't get rebuilt? Is there a
two state solution? There's a lots and lots of questions here. Even if we get this immediate phase one, in phase phase two done on the.
Exchange, well, let's be honest, though there's no two state solution. At least eminently as long as Israel is opening new fronts to the north, to your point, and that would go for normalization between the US and Saudi Arabia Israel as well.
Am I right?
One hundred percent? So look on a global scale, the United States and the Biden administration are looking for a win and a cease fire. They're also looking to negotiate with Saudi Arabia and find a path to normalization with Israel. Again, I don't think those things are going to happen in the short term, meaning the next few weeks, but they are the long term goal, and there is political pressure with all three elements to get something done here over the next several months, if you will.
How much time do we have in our remaining moment dale to find a truce? Is this days or weeks?
I do think it's going to be a two step process. Phase one has to go well, that initial exchange has to go well, and then politically in the background, we've got to see alignment. If that happens, then you could see a path to a truce or a permanent ceasefire.
It sounds like an announcement could be imminent though, is what we're hearing you're hearing the same thing.
It sounds like.
Yes, sir, absolutely, and we're connected straight into the IDF and teams on the ground, so we're hearing that exact same thing.
Well, I really appreciate your bringing your expertise and your sources to our audience again today, Dale Buckner, It's good to see sir. He is now CEO of the firm Global Guardian, a retired Army colonel with a lot of experience on the ground, and will continue to explore the story throughout the day.
On Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on appocar Play, and then Proudoro with the Bloomberg Business at Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
We want to turn now to our political panel, our signature political panel. Indeed, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are with us, who of course are Bloomberg Politics contributors. And Genie, we know that you also a professor at Iona University. You spend a lot of time with college students every day, but this isn't just so much about academia. And the
response of the university. It also seems like it has created a moment of pressure that goes far beyond it, as Republicans are seizing on this opportunity to cast criticism toward President Biden as a result, how do you think through not just what this means for these universities, but what it could mean more broadly for America's politicians and the Biden administration.
Yeah, you know, this.
Is a tough moment for Democrats, Joe Biden in particular, because it is something that splits the Democratic Party, and of course anything that splits the Democratic Party helps Donald Trump and the Republicans. And we've seen that, right We've seen Democrats send letters, for instance, to the president of Columbia demanding her to take a tougher action. And we've seen also Democrats like Alexandro o Casio Cortez Jamal Bowman go and support the protesters. So you're seeing that divide
right there. You know, I thought it was very interesting that the president is going to go speak at Morehouse, and I am wondering if we see some kind of Sister Soldier moment there, just to you know, reckon back to Bill Clinton's moment of taking on his base and walking the line that he's been trying to walk, of denouncing anti Semitism and violence but defending the right to protest.
And that's what he must do. But first and foremost, as president, he's got to denounce anti semitism and ensure security at the colleges and universities around the country, and defend the right to peaceful protest. So I'm wondering if he does more of that at Morehouse when he goes to make this speech. It's going to be a tough audience.
I think it sure is. Rick Davis, I wonder what you think needs to happen now A potential Sister Soldier moment. That's interesting for Joe Biden. But this is going to be a practical matter on campus when it comes to getting the students out of this hall. How much time, how much forgiveness should the university have here?
Well, first of all, I think this is an incredible overstatement to think that this small band of incontinent juveniles are somehow representative of the problems that Joe Biden have with the youth vote. The Harvard youth poll just came out like a week and a half ago, We talked about it on our program, and the same students that are protesting, if you want to call it a protest, ranked the Israeli Palestine conflict as fifteen out of sixteen issues that they were given.
This is a small group of elite.
University students who are you know, taking it upon themselves to try and disrupt the education that most of the students on the campus are getting and have nothing to do with these It's anti Semitic. It is an American to put this kind of university in this spotlight with a group of small band of you know, mobsters basically who have taken over these campus buildings. I mean, like the idea that this is somehow a broader political issue
for Joe Biden. I hope he does have a Sister Soldier moment and says that he's willing to, you know, instigate the National Guard to clean out these universities if the presidents of these universities asked for it, because this is just mob vandalism. At this stage, there's nothing protesting
going on. There's no legitimate argument to disinvest in Israeli investments, and by and large, most of these university probably don't have anything to do with that, and so they then transcend to, oh my god, we've got to have more transparency because you know, we don't know if you don't have Israeli investment. Well, it's none of their business whether or not the university has done this. Israel is a perfectly good place to invest in.
So I don't know.
I mean, I think all of this is going to not turn the political page. I would be surprised if Biden takes the moment to do it. But he ought to school these people because they are upsetting the education of a lot of legitimately interested, curious students who want to finish their school without this kind of disruption. And it is anti semitic. The things they are screaming at Columbia University are outrageous and they shouldn't be allowed to continue.
And Genie, in response to what Rick was talking about about what's happening at these schools, the responsibility perhaps of the schools to deal with this behavior. And I know you spoke to what President Biden may or may not do here, but what about Congress. Knowing that Mike Johnson was just a Columbia Last week, he suggested the idea of pulling federal funding. What role do federal lawmakers have in.
This, Yeah, that is something I think they don't have much of a role. I don't see them being able to pass legislation. I think maybe lawlers bill may have some more bipartisan support. But the idea that you pull funding, to me, that is, you know, harming everybody at that institution as opposed to the small number who should be handled by the administration and by the universities and colleges. So I don't think that that is where they should be.
I also think it's important to say it wasn't that long ago that the Republicans were out there denouncing universities and colleges for things like trigger warnings, and now for cynical political reasons, they are trying to get themselves enmeshed in how campuses run their own lives. The universities have to handle this on their own. If they can't, the
boards have to remove and replace the presidents. But I don't think there's a role for Speaker Johnson in this, and certainly I don't think they should be threatening the funding of our students at these universities and colleges because that impacts so many people who have done absolutely nothing wrong. And by the way, peaceful protest is absolutely allowed and encouraged in a liberal art setting, and it should be. It's an American right.
They both speak from the heart, Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis on a delicate issue. It's great to have both of you with us in your analysis today, Bloomberg Politics contributors.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business at You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.
Those protests that are happening on Columbia University's campus, as well as campuses across the country, happen against a backdrop of an ongoing war between Israel and Hamas an ongoing effort by negotiators in the Middle East to reach a temporary ceasefire agreement. The Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln is in the region right now, had a meeting in Jordan today about this and is continuing to push this effort, but basically says the onus is on Hamas. This is what he said earlier today.
Now, the quickest way to bring this to an end is to get to a ceasefire and the release of hostages. Hamas has before a proposal that is extraordinarily, extraordinarily generous on the part of Israel, and in this moment, the only thing standing between the people of Gaza and a ceasefire is Amas. They have to decide, and they have to decide quickly.
That was actually the Secretary of State speaking in Saudi Arabia, the first stop on this Middle East tour yesterday, Jordan today, Israel tomorrow, and he'll be meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netniahu. We understand. We want to continue this conversation now with Cassenia Spetlova. She's Atlanta Council non resident Senior Fellow and specializes on the Middle East. Actually a former member of the Israeli Kinesse. Cassenia, thank you so much for being here.
On balance of power, what is your degree of optimism right now that a cease fire deal can be reached? Is this really all about Hamas agreeing to it? Or is Israel something of an issue here too?
Well? Hello, joined the Kaylei.
First of all, I have to tell you that today, actually a couple of hours ago, there was supposed to be a discussion within the war cabinet that includes only several ministers of the cabinet and of course Benjamintina itself.
The meeting was canceled, and there is this assessment and that it was canceled because Nitagna was afraid to actually to discuss the details of the cease fire and also the options for the Rafa corperation if they will not be a ceas fire, because it could trigger resignation of some of his ministers, the most extreme ones who demand that war will continue, and also more moderate ones who believe that there should be an agreement on the ceasfire as soon as possible.
So he's trapped.
And it seems that there are a lot of calculations, political calculations that do not have to do anything with the interest of Israel, the region, stability and so on. So of course there is the part of Kamas and they have to say yes, no, do this deal. But there is also internal Israeli political very difficult situation, and it's to let to say the jury is still out. We don't know you know what both of the sites will decide on this.
Well.
Benjamin Etanya, who'll be damaged at home politically, certainly by some of his existing credits, but even members of the right if he goes forward with the ceasefire.
He's damned if he will, and damned if he'll not. This is the situation right now. Just you know.
Three four hours ago, a senior minister in his war cabinet, Guidy Eisenhott, a very respected ex chief of staff, announced that he will not be willing to be a part of any government that is not led by the national interest for first and foremost.
UH.
This is a very heavy hint that he believes that this is not where this.
Government is heading to.
UH.
And the first threat of perhaps resignation UH.
And UH.
You know the Guardia Eisencotte and Benny Guns Uh. They symbolize the more traditional kind of authority, UH. The respected, very well respected in the West, and there were the bridge between the more radical Nittingau government UH and the Western powers, the US, the European Union, the Liaison. If they will quit, uh, nitting you will have a very difficult time to continue speaking.
With the Americans.
UH.
And if his right wing ministers will quit, then you know, he will have no government at all.
So this is where he stands right now.
I can tell you that there is not much optimism in Israel on.
The popular level.
I think that you know that it takes place for far too long than anybody expected.
Uh.
It's already you know, way over two hundred days.
Uh.
And many people thought that it would be you know, over way before that, that the hostages will be freed. Uh. And there is a heavy concern that even the figure of thirty three hostages that was now discussed in the table of the negotiations in Cairo, it's not a real number. You know that perhaps the real now of the living costages is even lower than that.
Well, Senny, as you talk about the issues net Nyahuu is facing politically, he also could be facing another issue in that there's been reporting that he may be served with an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court along with other Israeli officials. There's been reporting that the US and allies are worried that that would be something that would really hinder, potentially disrupt any kind of temporary cease
fire deal. How would do you expect that the Israeli government would react to something like that, knowing Israel isn't actually party to the ICC, what would happen.
Well, this is first of all in uncharted territory, because until now, we only had heads of states that were not democratic states that you know, the issue to warrant against, such as Vladimir Putino Russia, and of course Omar al Bashir, the dictator of Sudan. But never did the experience situation in which the leader of a democratic country, which is a key ally of the United States, was threatened, you know,
by this kind of measure. So I think that domestically it might for in a short term help me to Yao to explain his case to his supporters. First of all, to the base of his supporters. You see, the world is against us. We are being persecuted again. He invokes very often the images of the Holocaust of the persecution.
So he will probably do it again.
If this indeed will happen on the long term, I think that this is that will be a great shock for every Israeli.
Uh.
The implications will be you know, far fetching. It's changed, dramatic change in the status of Israel internationally. UH, and the Avie it's closest allies. So even though Israel is not a part, just like as the US is not a part of Aroma Statute and they're not, they do not these countries do not see themselves as part of this IC court and that they don't have to abide. But there are enough of Israel closest allies, such as Canada, just the majority of the European countries of course, all
of the EU. You know that Albo simply will not be able to travel to anymore, exactly like the Russian leader Vladiberputin, who was issued a warrant against after he opened his bloody war against Ukraine.
Because Senny, I want to ask you about humanitarian aid, knowing that the United States is already deeply involved in the construction of a temporary peer to try to overcome some of the barriers that we have faced trying to get aid to civilians in Gaza. This is something the Secretary of State talked about earlier today in Jordan. Let's listen to what he said.
We have our maritime corridor that we've been working on.
That I'd say about a week from now we'll be ready to go.
That will also.
Significantly increase the assistants, not a substitute for these land access roots, but an important complement too.
When we talk about the building of the peer, the establishment of another humanitarian court or cassenya, how would that be helped by a cease fire? Would all of that be baked into a final agreement.
Well, I think that every humanitarian organization in the region that is working in Gaza and since Aid to Gaza, is hopeful that the ceasefire will take place, because we know that many of the organizations such as World Central Kitchen, whose staff was killed as a result of shelling from the Israeli Israeli soldiers, they ceased the operation for a while. They returned now to the operation, but it's not the
full volume. There are still a lot of concerns and of course only the reaching of the cease fire and providing of security to the personnel of the AID agency will of course allow them to do their work oneundred percent. Because the problem for now, as far as I understand, is not only with the supply. There is an increase in supply that is coming through the rough border.
There are also.
The airlifting and they are also the perspective of the pier and the sea corridor, but the distribution of the aid inside Gaza, the continuation of the stealing of this aid by Comas.
This is what threatens the most.
People in Gaza today because they simply do not see this humilitary end distributed to them for free. As we see time and again evidence that Hamas is selling this aid in the markets for money. Many people do not have this kind of money to acquire this aid, so we do need strong cos of minitarian bodies.
We will be able to.
I wish we had more time, but the Atlantic Council, we thank you for your expertise.
This is from.
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