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We're running on fumes today that goes for the entire political class on early flights out of New Hampshire, some late flights out of Boston because they don't hang around after a contest like that, not for very long.
Of course, the Nicki Haley campaign.
Has big work to do, and while Donald Trump never stays overnight there to begin with. Still in Manchester though with the cleanup is my partner in crime, Kaylee Lines. We had a late night with a very early call.
Kaylee. We've learned a lot.
More since then though about turnout, about margins and big questions remaining about what the heck Nikki Haley does from here.
How does it feel this morning in New Hampshire?
Well tired, Joe. It feels like whatever energy was here, even though energy was probably less. The New Hampshire primaries in the past has been kind of zapped at this point because the feeling is that primary season may be over. We may now be just in the general election. Granted that's not what Nikki Haley messaged last night. She intends to take this through to South Carolina, and looking at the margin, Joe, I'm not sure we have a firm answer of whether or not it indicates that she should
or should not do that. Remember when we all woke up yesterday morning here in New Hampshire, it was to news of the Suffolk University poll that said Trump was leading by twenty two points at sixty percent. Ultimately the margin we got was about half that, eleven points. Yes, that's still a pretty wide gulf between first and second place. Maybe not the strongest showing for Nicki Haley in second place,
but I guess it could have been worse. It's just a question of what happens over the course of the next four weeks leading up to South Carolina, because right now Niki Haley, as we well know Joe, is pulling significantly farther behind Trump in that state. She's down more than thirty points. There is she going to want to be embarrassed like that in her home state where she served as governor.
Yeah, we're going to.
Talk about all of this in a minute with David Paleologos, because we haven't had a heck of a lot of research since that Emerson poll showed how far behind Nicki Haley actually was in her home state, Kiley, that was before we had several candidates drop out, though, And I wonder what that shakeout is going to look like in a couple of weeks.
Yeah, Joe, what we learned here in New Hampshire is perhaps the dropping out of Chris Christi from the race may have benefited Nicki Haley, but for levik Ramaswami and Ron De Santis who dropped out between Iowa and New Hampshire, it seems like a lot of those votes did go to Trump Republican votes. That is, of course, a lot of the votes Nicki Haley got here in New Hampshire are independents, more moderate Republicans. South Carolina doesn't really reflect
that demographic. As we know, Joe, it's a much more conservative state. Trump has a very strong base of support there. It's going to be really hard, but her campaign indicates maybe it's not just about South Carolina. When you look ahead to Super Two's Day a week and a half or so later on March fifth, eleven of those sixteen states have open or semi open primaries, so maybe she could try to galvanize the support of independence former Democrats for example.
There.
This issue is she wasn't able to pull that off here in New Hampshire, so it remains a question this morning of whether she is actually able to pull that off in any other state.
Yep, you said it, Kaylee. Great to see you and great job last night. We'll check back with you a little bit later before our wheels up from Manchester, New Hampshire. Kaylee Lines reporting from Bloomberg at the scene of the crime, as we had the voice of David Paleologos. He ran that poll that Kaylee mentioned, Suffolk University Political Research Center, a director. Easy for me to say, David, it's good
to see you. When folks woke up to your poll that morning in New Hampshire and saw Donald Trump at sixty percent, we thought, all right, so much for the strong finish.
Let me start broadly with you here.
How do you feel about the spread and the chances that Nicki Haley has to gain momentum from New Hampshire.
So the spread was, as indicated, about half of what we showed twenty two versus eleven both had Donald.
Trump winning comfortably.
What we're looking at is the margin of error, and so I wasn't pleased that we were now teetering or not being in the margin of error. And what I mean by that is that our final tracks showed Trump at fifty nine point six and the actual last time I checked, Trump votes were fifty four point four. So it's just outside that four point four percent margin of error. And the same thing with nikkiy Haley. Nikki Haley currently is in the low forties. We had Nicki Haley at
thirty eight percent, just outside the margin. There's still counting votes, but I believe it will still be outside the margin of erar. I will say that of the last five poles that were taking the Suffold Pole had Nicki Haley the highest, even though it was still low yet thirty eight yea, So I'm not it wasn't our best New Hampshire poll, but I think that the trend line was pretty consistent, and if you look at the Real Clear Politics average, it was very close.
By the time you turn that into a daily rolling pole, it was one of the most important indicators we have, and I realized, you know, you're not adding that much of a sample on the daily, but you gave everybody it seems the right direction in where this was going. David Sall, congratulate you on that. Donald Trump said last night, after listening to Nicki Haley's speech, I will call it a concession speech, even though it didn't really.
Sound like one. He called her delusional. Is he right?
No?
I think she may be cagy staying in really, you know, nobody myself, you no one should really be commenting. I mean that's a personal decision. But she stays in not to meet him with delegates. She that's you know, I mean, there are too many close primaries and winner take all, he said, Trumps just going to amass.
A huge lead.
Staying in means could I be the last person standing if Trump were to be convicted? And knowing how independence will turn on Trump if he is convicted. So it's not that she thinks that there's a path delegate wise. I mean she's going to lose all the delegates in Nevada. She's not eligible, but you know, why not. She's got the money. Why not give it a shot in South Carolina? The problem with staying in South Carolina and losing badly.
Let's say she loses by another twelve points, eleven ten points, what then?
What then?
Especially what then for twenty twenty eight.
So it's looking like South Carolina the last stand.
If she stays in, there's some or of the mind that she might drop out before if it looks like a potential embarrassment to your point, that might impact her reputation going forward. But the last I can see, by the way, at least in terms of major polls, was Emerson January fifth, Trump fifty four, Hailey twenty five in South Carolina. That was before run DeSantis bailed. And I wonder if you've seen anything newer than that, if that's the baseline four weeks out.
Yeah, I haven't seen anything newer. I think the pre polling is going to be the same. It's going to be even if she jumps up five ten points, you know, Trump will be ahead by maybe not thirty points, but maybe by twenty points, and then it'll be whether or not, you know, she gets close and loses by ten or twelve. I think there are too many traditional voters, Republican voters in South Carolina as they were in Iowa for her to totally turn the tables, but it's definitely worth a shot.
And I think for Super Tuesday, Joe, you know, you know, she came somewhat close. I mean, it wasn't really that close in New Hampshire, and the spread was thirty percent registered Republicans in New Hampshire and forty percent independence. If she stayed through Super Tuesdays, she could win Massachusetts. Massachusetts, it's only ten percent registered Republicans and sixty percent independent.
So and I don't know polling to support that, but my guess is if the ratio was thirty forty and she was within eleven, the ratio is ten Republicans sixty independent, she probably But then what but then what?
Right? She went right in Massachusetts?
That doesn't really get her anything further in terms of the total delegate.
I think it says a lot about the Republican contest if it's coming down to battleground Massachusetts.
David This jumped off the page this morning.
Wall Street Journal crunching numbers from AP vote cast last night, warning signs for Trump. Nineteen percent of Republicans who cast ballots in New Hampshire said they would be so dissatisfied with Trump as the nominee, they would not vote for him. In November, we saw a similar number who participated in the Iowa caucuses say the very same thing. We know there was a lot of noise with independence in New Hampshire.
How much of a concern is this for the Trump campaign or is this just fringe conversation at this point?
No, it's but I think in that analysis they should have included that they weren't automatically voting for Biden, they weren't comfortable voting for Trump, but they may vote third party. So it's not a plus two difference minus one from Trump and plus one for Biden. It might have been minus one for Trump but plus one for Kennedy. So I think, you know, and it's the same thing with black voters who are less enthusiastic about Trump. It doesn't
mean that they're going to rotate to Trump. They may rotate to corn Out, lester Stein or a third party candidate. And that's why I think this is setting up for a potential story for a strong independent candidate, whether it's No Labels or right now it's RFK Jr. Who's got the most for an independent. But with this kind of matchup, the Trump Biden matchup. You know, a third party option is more viable to me.
Well, that's sure seeming like it, David.
We've talked to folks at No Labels who've told us, and you've heard this before. If by Super Tuesday, this does seem clear that it's Trump versus Biden.
We're running a candidate.
They're not on the ballot in every state, though, and that's partly why people say this is just a spoiler act, because they don't have a real chance of winning.
What do you think, Yeah, I think that's true. I mean Ross Perot was on every ballot. I mean even the Libertarian Joe Jorgans and Last Ramos on every ballot. So ballot access is important, and every state has their own rules and rags. Look at Nevada, that's a for the primary. I mean you've got a primary and but no delegates to a lot of the primary and only the caucuses, and Nikki Haley's not eligible, and so every state has their own rules, and every party within every state,
you know, acts accordingly. But yeah, I mean I think those are those are those are issues that we're going to continue to track going forward.
Big win last night for Joe Biden.
I'm sorry, it's just to think of a president of the United States at this stage of the game in a writing campaign fifty five percent. Dean Phillips, he said, look at me, I could get twenty percent, and he almost did. Nineteen point five. Is the Dean Phillips act over? Did he prove a point? What do we get on the dem side?
Well, I mean, you know, you've got the same problem on the DEM side. I mean, why would a Democrat who's supporting Joe Biden go in and embarrass Joe Biden by going in and voting for Dean Phillips. So again, this is the reason why Democrat, Republicans, and mostly independents they don't want this matchup. And it's it's you know,
from afar. It's very interesting to observe because it's almost like the political parties set up their primaries and caucuses deliberately to benefit the people who are eventually going to win. And you know, I know that the people oken, but look, you know, I mean the public is going to be forced to pick a candidate. If they only pick one of two a candidate that's the less than two evils, and that doesn't speak well for the system.
And so therefore what we have in common now on both sides is this idea that you can have a campaign hang in there just barely enough to be available in case the front runner becomes incapacitated, whether it's Dean Phillips or I guess that's not the most respectful way
to describe Nikki Haley's campaign right now. But if she just decides to nibble along and get delegates to stay in the game in case somebody gets convicted of something, for instance, that really is the same campaign strategy that Dean Phillips is running.
Yeah, exactly, you know, and you know it might be the why strategy. You know, she's gone, you know, in the states that allocate proportionally, she is going to pick off delegates. But if there's a Kumbaya moment or not in Milwaukee at the Republican Convention, for example, who are they going to pick Nicky Haley? I mean Nicki Haley.
Even in New Hampshire last night, and it was similar to the polling, she was losing by fifty points among registered Republicans in New Hampshire fifty five zero, you know, and were it not for Governor Sanunu's ground operation identifying
Trump hating independence and increasing that proportion. So how do you nominate Nicky Haley when she's not you know, she's not liked by such a wide march, you know, And so you may have someone drafted on the Democrats side, but also on the Republican side, if you know, if things don't work out legally for former President Trump.
God knows, we have this fantasy of a contested convention every four years and it never happens. But boy, it seems like something could be real. David's great to see you, Thanks for coming along. David Paley, Loogo's Suffolk University Political Research Center director, with the latest numbers here on the trail. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. We're back in the Capitol. This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Another incredible experience here covering Iowa and New Hampshire back to back by the way, the final in New Hampshire Donald Trump fifty four, Nikki Haley forty three. Remembering the poll that we walked into this from Suffolk University, it said sixty percent for Donald Trump. But of course this had a lot more to do with the trajectory of
these two candidates, not necessarily predicting the spread. And that's where we start our conversation with somebody who not only knows polls, but New Hampshire as well as anyone here. Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, is back with us. He's been a reliable voice as always through this process. And Andrew, it's great to see you this day after. I wonder your thoughts because we were speculating, we were wondering what was going to happen.
Twenty four hours before the contest. You were with us here on Bloomberg. Did New Hampshire just pick the Republican nominee?
I think so unless something dramatic happens now in the convention, either legal or medical, or knows what else it would be, but it has to be incredibly dramatic for Trump not.
To get the nomination.
I think that maybe the only outside chance that Haley has, and I think maybe this is why she's continuing to go is she the Bible candidate and can build up a certain number of delegates. She may be able to be in a position should something happen to be seen as the next the next most logical Republican to be the nominee for November. But it would really require on something outside of control of the campaign.
Isn't that something? So there's almost no point in advertising. Just wait around and see what happens.
I guess some of the data that we pulled out of the voting last night, Andrew, among independent voters, I'd like to hear from you on this, because they of course characterize New Hampshire in a very special way.
Among independent voters, sixty six percent said they would not vote for Donald Trump in November if he was the nominee. What does that mean to you as you look forward to a general that could already underway.
Well, I would say, first off, we have to discount there may be ten percent or so of those independents who voted in the primary yesterday, they're really Democrats. They vote actively Democratic. Typically they're not going to vote for Trump.
Regardless.
But what I've seen over the history here in New Hampshire, but also in the history of political science, going back to research published in the nineteen sixties, is that the partisanship is such a strong driver of what goes on. And my sense is that those Republicans who say they're never going to vote for Trump, they'll rationalize why Trump is better than Biden when it comes around to November. It's like, yeah, we know he's a skunk, but our
sunk skunk is better than your party's skunk. So you'll see a lot of that. We heard that in twenty sixteen, we heard that in twenty twenty as well from Republicans.
Right.
Yeah, Well, I'll tell you what.
There are a lot of questions about how Nikki Haley is going to spend the next four weeks. How can she learn from what happened in New Hampshire to potentially improve her chances here, because the makeup in New Hampshire is like a different universe from what she's going into in South Carolina.
I don't know if there is that much to learn from New Hampshire, because frankly, I think she ran an excellent race here. She did about as good as you could expect anybody to do. Where you've got Donald Trump getting a significant majority of those registered Republican voters. She played the only hand that she had, but the cards were relatively weak, and she did an excellent job with
the week hand. She's going into South Carolina where her cards are even weaker, not because she's not popular in the state and she's better known, but South Carolina's electorate they elected Donald Trump significantly in twenty and sixteen and in twenty twenty, and I don't think they'll see any reason why they should throw him overboard, even if it is for a governor that they know and like.
Your poll Andrews Smith of a little less than two weeks ago had them within single digits. That changed pretty quickly as candidates began dropping and as they moved through Iowa. When are we going to start seeing indications of how the Ron de Santis votes were distributed and how did that change so quickly in a week's time to go from single digits to what we got last night.
Well, I think it's important to remember that Donald Trump had about forty to forty two percent of the electorate in New Hampshire locked up a year ago, if not eight years ago. So his voters were there, and then you had a lot of people that were looking at other ones. You had the anti trumpers with Chris Christie. You had Nikki Haley trying to play a middle road. You had the Trump light candidates with Rameshwamy and DeSantis.
But those in our polling when Christie, if you asked Christie voters who their second choice was, it was Haley, and when he dropped out, they moved over to her. That's why she got this boot, this bump. But when first Ramaswami and then Desantras dropped out, their second choice was always Trump, so they drifted over to Trump. It was not a question in this election of Trump versus
everybody else or the anti Trump. It was Trump, the Trump Light and the anti Trumps, and the anti Trump went for instead of Trump Light, they went for full strength Trump.
How about that?
Sounds like that thirty point spread that I mentioned in the Emerson Paul South Carolina might still be the case. How about no labels. They've already come to New Hampshire a few times. I've seen Joe Manchin up there holding
events on a potential third party run. There's something New Hampshirey about that, Andrew, if we get to Super Tuesday, to you take that group at its word that they will run a candidate, and how could it possibly work when they aren't going to be likely on the ballot everywhere?
Well, I think any third party is going to be a spoiler, and basically you're going to have to start to look at who they're drawing votes from. And it's really way too early to start to even think about those things. Voters aren't paying that much attention frankly too the general election in the fall. Yet they are in the early states like New Hampshire, Iowa and now coming up South Carolina. But a third party is going to
have a very, very difficult challenge. As I mentioned, the voters in the United States can rationalize why their party is as bad as the candidate is is better than the other party's candidate. And if you think back to third party candidates in recent memory, with Ross Perrot, he got nineteen percent in nineteen ninety two with two kind of amazing our candidates, but he didn't get a single electoral vote. He was a spoiler at best, not a really credible candidate for winning.
The election, not that we don't already have potential spoilers out there, right, RFK Junior.
We've got third party candidates.
That I could rattle off here that don't necessarily carry the no Labels brand.
What's the difference?
Not much?
Actually, I think RFK Junior is probably in a better position than the no Labels brand. They're not a known commodity, they're not a party in the traditional sense of a party,
their movement so to speak, at best. But they're going to need somebody who's a very charismatic person, very popular, very well known, who's going to be able to lead the charge, because I don't think people are going to go and vote for a relatively unknown candidate that they don't know how they're going to govern, who will have no governing party in Washington, then looking at who their own candidate is and saying, you know what, I'll just pick with the try and prove even if I don't
really like it.
So add up RFK Junior, Cornell West and the rest. Is there already enough potential interruption for Joe Biden worry about it?
Sounds like yes, yeah, I.
Think there is. I think that both candidates have to worry about this.
It's just really too early for us to say who it's going to bite them bite the hardest. You can make an argument both ways, but I think it's too early because frankly, again, voters aren't paying attention much to this. Voters will pay attend to the elections when they have to, and that's usually just before the election. The money issue is important for the candidates and the campaigns. How do you keep this thing rolling if your candidate, if your
voter or your candidates aren't that popular. How do you keep voters engaged when they're looking at their candidates and neither party really is in love with their party's candidate. How do you keep them focused? And that's a hard thing to do.
Strikes me Andrew that if Donald Trump wanted to give this the appearance of shutting down the Republican primary, you just go ahead and announce a vice presidential pick right now. Remember when Ted Cruz tried to pull that off. Just form your own ticket before you even get to a convention. I don't know if you see that happening, it feels like something very very trumpy thing to do. Who's on the top of that short list? Will geography matter this time?
Are the normal rules in place or does Trump seem to be the exception to that as well.
I think Trump's not likely to pay attention to theditional things like choosing somebody from the other wing of your party, or choosing somebody for their ability to draw votes in a battleground state or a large battleground state. I frankly think he's going to get a loyalist, somebody who's going to parrot the message that he has, who's not going to stray or say something that he might disagree with. And he's going to want somebody who's going to back
him up in those legal troubles that he's got. So I think he's going to want somebody who's got an oath of loyalty to him, and I don't think that that's going to turn off the Trump voters.
In fact, I think his supporters, if.
Anything, want to see somebody like that rather than, you know, somebody from another wing of the party.
So you're talking at least to Phonic a couple of other names around there.
Carrie Lake might ring true to you. What do you think, Andrew.
I think that both of those people could be on his short list, and they'll probably have to swear on a stack of bibles that they're going to they'll pardon him if if need be. But I think there's it's going to be tough for them to find some who has some national credibility, who's with Trump, who's not going to stray away from Trump, and who's not going to look like somebody who's been effectively politically neutered if they join the campaign.
So then if it's the Trump campaign and no rules apply, that choice that's so important for presidential candidates probably won't move the needle in the polls. Right, this is the most stable looking race that we've ever seen when it comes to Trump's base.
I think so, and they actually look at the political science on it. The vice presidential pick generally doesn't make much difference at all. John Dyan s Gardner famously said it's not worth being not worth a warm bucket of as he said, spit, but he meant something else. It's not something that really the voters are waiting for. It's kind of a news story a bit. It's something to talk about during the convention when it's traditionally announced, but
it's just not that big of a deal. But in this case, we have two very old candidates for whom the choice of vice president becomes looms a little bit larger than might be the case of the president is fifty years old, and that's going to be I think the discussion is how young, how vigorous, and how this person would look as potentially a president within before the end of the current president's term.
I've got less than a minute, Andrew Smith. Some suggested while I was in Manchester that the primary was broken. Is it going to be like the good old days four years from now?
There were many things that happened.
If you walked on the streets of Manchester this weekend, it looked like a ghost town compared to past primariy. The Democratic Party took the big step of essentially bypassing New Hampshire for the first time. They wanted to do it in decades, but they finally took the step. The Republican primaris it wasn't that interesting because of an incumbent. Perhaps the kind of the lull that we saw this year was due to the candidates in particular situations.
People.
I want to see the carnival come back to town. Andrew Smith. It's great to see you again. From the University of New Hampshire. This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then royd Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump have something in common. They're both acting like the general election is now underway. They say it began last night if you really look at
the statements they both issued. Listen to Donald Trump's speech, certainly, and that's why Joe Biden's day today is important, not with an eye on South Carolina, but Michigan, where today he's expected that the UAW will endorse his presidential bid, remembering Joe Biden became the first president to walk a picket line and his support of the UAW strike against
the Big Three. We assemble our panel for their take on what happened last night and what may already be happening, even as Nicki Haley vows to stay on in this race. Lester Munson is with US Principle at BGR Group Republican Strategists, along with Alvin Jordan Rock Solutions, Vice President Democratic analyst. It's great to have both of you with us here.
Joe Biden is acting like the general is underway, Alvin, with this endorsement from the UAW which Donald Trump is also seeking, help him along the way in the months ahead.
Absolutely, I think regardless of what happens with Donald Trump and Nicki Haley for President Biden, he for sure has to get on the campaign trail because it has started in effect for him, and the first thing from a priority standpoint that he has to wrap up his support and if he can't secure this, it would for sure put a wrinkle in his plans for how he would
like to roll out his campaign officially. So he is, as you could imagine, they're, you know, trying to cash in on some of that goodwill as you mentioned that as presidential walk to Pitty Vine to actually come up with some official support, and I think he definitely needs it well.
So I guess that move paid off.
It was considered controversial at the time here, Lester, but we also spoke while that was going on, while the strike was underway, by the fact that rank and file union workers auto workers in Michigan voted for Donald Trump in twenty twenty. What will this do to change their vote? Do they follow Sean Fain in the leadership here?
Well, that remains to be seen. I suspect the rank and file is not going to follow their leadership on this issue. This is part of the Trump populist appeal, right, He's reaching out to the kind of the regular Joe past the elites in this case the union leadership, or that's certainly what he's going to try to be doing this And this is a weak spot in the Biden coalition. So the fact that the president President Biden is acting like this is a general I think he has to
be doing that. It is very likely he's going to be facing Donald Trump. And this is a demographic that Trump is going to pursue aggressively and relentlessly. And so this is this is You're absolutely right, Joe, this is the first step for the president in the general election.
How about that? I'm drawn to the headline on the front of the Union Leader, the New Hampshire Union Leader, which just days earlier endorsed Nicky Haley. Alvin, you saw the results last night, another big win for Donald Trump. The headline voters say they were motivated by Trump one way or another, suggesting that you had passion on behalf of his supporters and passionate protest votes by those, in many cases independents who voted for Nicki Haley. Is that
a strategy going forward? If you're the underdog and you're a protest vote as opposed to something people are voting for, can you sustain a campaign in that environment?
No, is the short answer. And unfortunately, you know, in one of the opinion pieces I believe in The Times this morning, they used the phrasing of a lovely illusion, and I think that is so accurate in kind of
where and how we've arrived today. I was in Iowa and actually got to hear some of what you know, Nicki Haley was saying, and I looked around the room to take a quick inventory, and it very much seemed like she had the people on her side as it were, and then, as we all know, it didn't go in her favorite to the to the point of third place. And so I just think that we're seeing to fruition
a lot of what is and sounds great. I mean, even in the midst of you know, allegations and actual you know, court hearings where we see the former president out front and literally dealing with all of this, and people still show up by and large to support him.
And so again I think from a president, you know Biden's point of view, you have to activate and believe that this is happening, and you can't really allow you know, whether Nikki Haley will stick around or kind of where she's arrived personally to slow down the momentum that they'll need to garner support, because if they do, I think what we'll look around and see similar to twenty sixteen in a different way, but definitely you know where we are now, which is people show up support vote for
the former president pretty pretty consistently.
Well, I'll tell you, the conventional wisdom of this day after the primary is that this is over, that Nikki Haley will eventually have to drop out of the race here. But she's got a lot of money, Lester, She's sinking four million dollars into ads in South Carolina. At what point will she need to win something to keep this rolling?
Well, pretty soon, she's got a plausible case to make right. South Carolina's her home state. She knows it. She's going to have to figure out a way to overcome this thirty point apparent thirty point gap with Trump. Can she appeal to Republican women voters? Can she appeal to those folks who are skeptical of Trump? Does he make some more mistakes on the stump? Does he have a health issue? Her being in the game might change it a little bit. This is a crazy year. It's hard to I think
it's a mistake to predict too much. Certainly Trump is in the best position here, but we've also got a look to see. The longer this goes on, the less likely it is that Trump is going to be able to prevail in the general. He's going to have to make a pivot to appeal to a broader range of voters. He's got to try to appeal to independence. He's got to try to appeal to Republicans who are skeptical of him.
If he doesn't do that soon, it's going to become harder and harder and harder to do as this campaign goes onward.
Talk to us about independence, Alvin. Among those who voted in New Hampshire, a state defined by its independent or as they say, undeclared voters, sixty six percent said they would not vote for Donald Trump in November if he was the nominee. That's advantage Biden, you.
Would, you would like to think, and I think for the you know, for the for the president, like that is an area where you have to you know, go and try to capture as much that as soon as you possibly can. I think, you know, again to the points that we've we've made just previously, how much of
that is actually real. I was, you know, taking in a quick look at a couple of the town halls that that we're broadcast yesterday after the polls had closed, and even in the room, you could tell, as people were kind of on the fence from an independent standpoint of not wanting to declare a vote for President Trump, that it still seemed that when it came down to it, they would, you know, essentially tow the party line or even from an independent perspective kind of look that way.
And I just don't think that you can necessarily trust that I will vote against President Trump will actually hold true. And if you're President Biden, I think you have to immediately, you know, start trying to appeal and pull in some of those voters who are seemingly on the fence Otherwise, I think we end up as we have in the past and are looking at another Trump administration. If that's a segment of people that the current administration can't pull to their side.
We're about to get crushed with a lot of ads. And having just survived Iowa in New Hampshire, they are still rattling around in my head. We've got less than a minute here for this part of our conversation, Lester. Nicky Haley's got twenty twenty eight to think about a much longer road ahead than Donald Trump.
Needs to worry about.
A massive embarrassment in South Carolina, where she's polling now thirty points behind Donald Trump, could impact her chances down the road. Is that something she needs to avoid?
You know who knows? I think all the old rules are out the window. Is Desanti's applausible candidate in twenty eight is Tim Scott. They've you know, they've taken some hits and gotten some extra baggage here as they got out of the race. I don't know that there's a real good formula here for Nicky Haley. I think I like the fact that she's I confess I'm a little partial to her. I like the fact that she's fighting.
I think that's going to resonate well for her. She is going to have to figure out if she does this again in four years, assuming she doesn't get it now, how to appeal to those Trump voters, and you know, being a little pugilistic might help her do that.
Great analysis from our panel. It's amazing what happens when you actually get some votes instead of just polling and forecast to talk about. Democratic analyst Alvin Jordan, Rock Solutions, Republican strategist Leicster months in BGR Government affairs.
Many thanks for the insights today