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It's going to be a busy week here in Washington as one hundred and eighteenth Congress tries to wrap up its work for the year. That, of course, will include finding a way to keep the government open past midnight on Friday, where the deadline is, and we have no deal yet as to how exactly that happens. We know it will be a stopgap measure of sometime likely going
into March. We just don't know how exactly the sausage is going to be made and what compromise the Democrat and Republican leaders in both chambers will reach.
But we do know what does need to.
Get done and get a signature from President Biden, buy that deadline on Friday, so that when we come back in January and the one hundred and nineteenth Congress takes its seats, they can get started on their to do list, and certainly the incoming chairs of the various committees in the House have to do lists of their own, and one of them is joining us now here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. He was just named the incoming chair of the House Financial Services Committee, and his live with
me from Capitol Hill. Congressman French Hill of Arkansas. Congratulations sir, first and foremost for getting the gabble here, and I do want to get into everything you want to accomplish in financial services in the two years ahead. Could we just begin, though, with what exactly is going to happen this week? Is there's not a lot of time to work with here, and I wonder if the seventy two hour rule to read this stopgap legislation after its released is going.
To have to be waived.
Well, Kayley, it's always good to be with you. Thanks for having me. Usually we hope to have that bill post it over the weekend, and we didn't see it, so you're right, we may be cons it with a tight time frame in order to review it before we have to vote on it and get the Senate to approve it before Friday.
Well, that certainly is true. And when we talk about it being a deal making here we understand that the Speaker is looking for economic aid to farmers and might need to offer out something else to Democrats in exchange for that. Are you concerned at all about what additional provisions Democrats want could work its way into this continuing resolution?
Well, sure, because the real issue is that the continuing resolution be done at the Fiscal Responsibility Act levels. This is the agreement. I think the Speaker's done an outstanding job negotiating that. But our farm counties in this country are facing a crisis. The last three years have been bad on pricing. There were high supplies and number of commodities this year which depressed price furthers. So they've had high costs from the Ukraine invasion plus now low prices
this year. So it's tough to be refinanced if you've had three bad years of a row. I was an ag lender many many years ago in banking, so I know how tough that is. The Speaker is trying to get a deal where we just simply help the farm economy. I don't know why the Democrats are trying to take advantage of farmers who are hurting. This is not like it's a Republican policy. It's an American policy and try to help these farmers get through a tough period.
Well, I'm glad you raise your background is once being a lender and community banker, sir, as, we understand that is one of the reasons why you were able to win the gavel in what was a competitive race for the Chairmanship of Financial Services. So let's get into what you want to accomplish. I'd like to begin with crypto
as this is Bloomberg TV and Radio. We obviously saw, as you shared the Digital Asset Subcommittee, through your committee and the House, the passage of the FIT twenty one Act Crypto Market Structure legislation that divvied up responsibilities between the CFTC and SEC.
Are you going to start.
There and make changes or would you rather start from scratch when it comes to crypto market structure?
Well, first, Dusty Johnson from South Dakota and Gt. Thompson of Pennsylvania, both on the AD Committee, where my partners. They'll be my partners again in this Congress. We don't have a learning curve here. We can take the lessons that we learned in one hundred and eighteenth Congress by producing FIT, which was a bill that got seventy one Democratic votes here in the House, and the work that Chairman mckenry did with the ranking Member Maxine Waters on a stable coin bill.
Both those will be.
Priorities coming into the new Congress. We want to work with the Trump administration and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott and try to get all of us on the same page as to how do we proceed in one hundred and nineteenth. We've got new interest in the Senate. Bill Haggerty of Tennessee introduced his own bill in and around digital assets just before the election.
Well, so when we consider though the actual market structure questions here, Obviously, when FIT twenty one was passed, Gary Gensler was the chair of the SEC s he is now that will be changing in the new administration. Presumably it will be Paul Atkins, And I wonder if you're more comfortable with the SEC having greater authority over crypto compared to the CFTC under that kind of regime, if it's no longer going to be Gary Gensler at the helm.
Well, we didn't draft the FIT twenty one legislation because Gary Gensler was the chairman of the SEC. We drafted it because we thought there needed to be clear, transparent, transparent, fit for purpose rules of the road for digital asset companies so that tokens that are on a decentralized functioning blockchain are treated differently. They're not treated as securities. And we put that in law and defined exactly how to
do it. And I think that's still important for the SEC under President Trump and Paul Atkins as the chairman elect, because there's some things you can do by exemptive relief at the SEC, but there are other things that you actually need statutory work for. We're prepared to work with the new chairman the new Commission, but permanent changes come from making legal changes, not just doing exemptive relief at
the Commission. So I prefer a legislative solution, but I want to work with the chairman and see how we can work together.
Well.
And I do wonder about the working with not just other chairmen in the House and in the Senate, but others in this administration, like say David Sachs, Congressman, what is your relationship like with him or with other agencies that we understand the White House. We'll be giving a voice here in the shaping of crypto policy.
Well, we had a great relationship with the banking regulators, the Treasury and the White House and the Biden administration on this topic, and I expect this will be even better in the Trump administration. The National Economic Council, with Kevin Hastrett and Treasury Secretary Designate Descent, the banking Supervisor that President Trump will appoint, all of us will work together along with the SEC Chairman on crafting the best
policy for digital assets. We want America to have a growth policy and a fairness and a transparent policy on how to have a digital asset economy here in America that produces growth. We want to add employees here. We don't want this business driven offshore as we witness during the Gensler and Biden Harris regime.
Well, we know the President elect has talked about making the US the bitcoin capital of the world. He's also floated this notion, Sir, of a bitcoin reserve. Do you have any concerns with an establishment of that?
Well, actually, I think Senator Loomis floated the idea of the reserve, and President Trump heard about it when he was at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville during July This is something that has to be looked at carefully if that has benefits to the US Treasury and to the US balance sheet, and I'm sure Congress and members on both sides of the capital will do that.
As we get into other banking matters as well, would you support a move to abolish the FDIC and to fold its duties into the Treasury Department.
I think you've got to look at whatever proposals that the incoming administration has as part of a matrix, like what is the big picture objective here? Most people in Congress want outstanding, coordinated, harmonized supervision of our financial institutions that encourage new banks, encourage growth, encourage of fair minded
rules and the capital standards. And they don't want to create a situation where our community banks are going out of business because they can't comply with all the rules. And we want tailoring, that is, we want smaller banks with simpler balance sheets and simpler strategies to be treated differently than a big, large, complex company like City Bank or JP Morgan Chase. But we're willing to listen to what proposals that the administration has on supervisory changes.
So that's not a no that you wouldn't necessarily be opposed from the start on abolishing the FDIC or shifting the way in which that insurance mechanism actually happens in the US.
Well, I don't personally, I've never seen anybody submit an idea like that. I've read about it in the newspaper. But I think deposit insurance is an important feature. We want to make sure it's run right. The FDIC has a poor leadership right now, but it's been an institution that's carried out its mission in a very tailored way. And I would just argue that we have, mostly in the Biden Harris regime, a personnel problem, not a structural problem.
But the supervisory process in our country between state and federal supervisors has gotten convoluted. It's gotten in conflict with each other, it's not harmonized, it's not coordinated, and so there are a lot of improvements that need to be made, in my view, in bank supervision. So again I'm open minded about how those could be made. But just taking one out of context and saying that you should do away with the FDIC, I don't think so particularly the right way to go about it.
Well, if it is to stick around. What do you see whoever Trump taps to lead the FDIC and the OCC for that matter, as their chief priority, what would you hope that they deal with first?
Well, first tailoring, following the law, making sure that their light touch regulation where it's deserved, and heavy complex tux regulation where it's merited because of the nature of the business. Further, I think they have to understand that fintech is here and AI is here, and they need to deal with that reality and make sure that all banks of all sizes and broker dealers of all sizes are treated in
the right way according with their business plan. But debank banking businesses because they're involved in the fintech or the crypto business is not a good approach. And that's what we've seen in the Biden Harris administration, and in my view, that's a key point to get changed as we change administrations.
We do not want customers de banked because they're in a legal business, and we don't want to see banks and thrifts or credit unions or broker dealers treated inappropriately by the supervisors.
Well, certainly, we've seen a number of pursuits during this administration in regard to banking, including, of course, the initial proposal of the BOSL three un gained by the FEDS Vice Chair of Supervision Michael Barr. That obviously is now
being changed. It's unclear what form it's ultimately going to take, sir, and I do wonder how you at the Financial Services Committee are hoping to shape ultimately that endgame and what's going to happen to capital requirements, assuming Michael Barr is still going to be the guy in this role.
Well, look, the Board of Governors is responsible for obviously that decision, and I don't believe that the Board of Governors is supportive of Basil three in game as proposed. I think President Trump should withdraw that rule and repropose whatever the right, more balanced approach is. It got thousands of comments, they were all negative, and I don't believe that the Biden Harris's effort to just simply tweak the proposal and re release it is the way to go.
I think it should be withdrawn and then be reconsidered by the Trump administration.
As we consider other Biden era banking policies. Would you support a congressional review through the Congressional Review Act of any of them?
Well, we have. We've done that for the Small Business Data Reporting, which is Section ten seventy one that was a CFPB proposal. We've done that for the currents the Corporate Transparency Act, which I still hope gets put in the cr this week to delay that. This is this beneficial ownership reporting for thirty two million American small businesses that I believe is the wrong approach and handled in
an incorrect way. So I hope that we can. We've used the CRA for that, and we want to try to delay the implementation of that for a year since to give us an opportunity to reconsider it. We'll use the Congressional Review Act, We'll use our Article one power on funding through looking at activities in the Financial Services Committee that are not currently authorized, and so we're going to use all the oversight authorities that we have at house financial Services to roll back what we believe to
be an inappropriate level of regulation proposed by Biden. Harris.
I'd like to ask you, as well, Congressman, about something we're hearing a lot about in Washington these days as we get ready for the second administration and for the DOGE to make their commendations.
It's this idea of remote.
Work or perhaps a return to working in the office instead of working remotely for those who work in Washington through federal agencies. Is there anything Congress can do to help the administration this incoming administration see through that goal of having people return to the office, even if there's existing union contracts that allow them to work from home.
Well, I think this is the advantage of the Doze process with Vivek and Elon. I think it's good to have for profit business executives look at the sedimentary regulatory burden that's been built up over years, and also the HR and work practices in the bureaucracy and try to find ways to do things in a more effective way, efficient way, and where possible, to get out of certain
businesses that are not necessary. We have a real issue here in Washington, d C. I think the last number I saw Kayley was only about forty percent of the federal work force in the District of Columbia is in the office. And so the question is is that appropriate or inappropriate based on the kind of work that they're doing. We've seen since the pandemic, the whole economy shift workflows,
and so from a federal government point of view. Maybe they don't need to do that in some areas, like if you're working in an auditing capacity, maybe you're on the road a lot or working from a computer and you want to do that from home. But that's the kind of good, straightforward look I think we'll get from Doje in Veka and Elon as they work with these Cabinet secretaries to assess workloads, management techniques, the use of technology, and the use of where people should be during the workday.
All right, Congressman, thank you so much for being generous with your time on Bloomberg TV and radio today. That's Republican Congressman French Hill of Arkansas, the incoming chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. Happy holidays to you, sir, and will see you in one hundred and nineteenth, when he, of course, will be taking that gavel. We still have much more ahead here on balance of power. He of course, was just talking about the DOGE, those two co leaders
of the dough to vag Ramaswami and Elon Musk. We're in the DC area in Landover, Maryland, specifically this weekend at the Army Navy Game with a laundry list of others including President elect Donald Trump, the House Speaker Mike Johnson, the incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Reconciliation and what exactly is going to happen with taxes and the budget next year was on the agenda, and of course there were cabinet nominees in tow as well, So we're going
to get into that next. Our signature political panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzino will join me on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast KEMS just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and thenroyd Otro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven five.
Welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio, where we've been dealing with a lot of news today, including news from down in Florida. We're at mar A Lago. The CEO of SoftBank, Masoshi's Sun, met with Donald Trump this morning, pledging to invest one hundred billion dollars in the US over the next four years. That money to be spent on things like infrastructure to support artificial intelligence apparently could bring one hundred thousand jobs with it now.
Their meeting was followed by a press conference in which we heard from both of them. Donald Trump, we heard from for an extended period of time on a number of subjects well beyond just this soft bank investment, and we want to get into all of that now with Laura Davison, who is Bloomberg Politics editor here with me in our.
Washington, d C. Studio.
So, Laura, in that press conference, he did talk about this soft bank investment, but he also talked about the fact that Tim Cook and a number of other tech executives have come to visit him at mar Alago. He says this term is different, that everyone wants to be his friend now in the tech world, and I guess we add Mashiyoshi's son to that list of people who want to get friendly with the president elect.
Yes, there have been a series of meetings in the past couple of days. We've had Mark Zuckerberg go down, We've had the Google CEO Pinchai, We've had Bezos is scheduled to come this week. On Friday, he met with Tim Cook from Apple. So there is a real outreach in the business community that just didn't happen eight years ago. You know, part of this was they didn't know Trump, they didn't know how he operated, They didn't even know you know who in his orbit to call to even
set up a meeting. And now you have people realizing that this is if they want to be in Trump's good graces, if they want to have this personal relationship because that's how he does business, they need to personally go there, set up a meeting, set up a dinner. This worked out really well for Tim Cook during the first term he was you know, it was sort of a rarity among big CEOs who went down and he was able to fend off most of the tariffs that
that Trump was going to impose on iPhones. So you see this recognition from people saying, look, we need to go down, we need to meet with them, and you know, potentially be able to to influence some of these decisions before things that we don't like, like tariffs, come down the pike.
Well, so I do wonder about sequencing here when it comes to the soft Bank investment in particular, because it was what just last week Trump posted on true Social Hey, if you want to invest one billion dollars in the US. I'll get you expedited permits, get ready to rock and Maciochi Sun comes in a week later and says, how about one hundred billion? Is there is there a line connecting those two things?
There certainly is.
And you also, this is sort of a move that SoftBank has done in the past. You know, they have previous said they would invest fifty billion dollars. You know, that had some some kind of went down in a couple of ways with with deals not actually following through, but kind of coming in with a big headline number.
Saying look, we're going to invest one hundred billion dollars really starts almost kind of this bidding war between other companies being say, hey, look, you know we're bringing this money, we're bringing this jobs. You know, what what can you do for US, mister president? And they you know, even you know, my son, the soft mak CEO got a
press conference out of this. So that's a real, uh, you know, a real tangible benefit that attaches that saying look, I have you know, essentially the most powerful man in the world, who is you know, willing to give his first press conference really since becoming president or since becoming president elect.
That's a that's a major mark for SoftBank.
Well, and just quickly on that, Laura, this was an extended press conference. It went well beyond the soft Bank investment. We touched Ukraine, we touched who's invited, the inauguration, tariffs, taxes January sixth, the polio vaccine. What stood out to you the most of this morning's extended affair.
I mean a couple of things.
One is, this is on Laura Trump and the Senate seat. You know, he'd mentioned that, you know, he does not think that Desanta is going to give that a seat to her. He also, you know, was very critical of Biden on several things, on you know, the foreign wars, on Ukraine, on Israel, but also on the drone sightings that have continued to spark concern, particularly in the Northeast. He said that the government knows something and they should reveal it. You know, he did not cite any evidence
for that. It's not clear. The Pentagon and the White House come out and said there's no risk there. But this is clearly going to be a flashpoint going forward as well.
Yeah, everybody's obsessed with the drones now. I have questions about the drones.
I think we all do.
Bloomberg's Laura Davison, or politics editor here in Washington, thank you so much. Now, before Donald Trump was in mar A Lago today, he spent part of his weekend in this area and landover Maryland at the Army Navy game, which of course was a big deal, in part because
Navy pretty much dominated, played a great game. Go Navy, but also because along with Donald Trump, there were a number of other high profile individuals and attendance, including the vaik Ramaswami and Elon Musk who are going to be running this Department of Government Efficiency cabinet secretary nominees including Pete Hegseth who has been tapped for the Department of Defense,
and Tulci Gabbard for the Director of National Intelligence. And he had Senator John Thune, the incoming Senate majority leader, as well as House Speaker Mike Johnson discussing things with the president, not just football, but how they want to deal with Trump's agenda when he takes office. It's a question of sequencing here. Do you pass one budget reconciliation package with everything in it, or do you split it up?
Dealing with the border first and taxes later. So let's get into this now with our signature political panel, Rick Davis stone Court Capital Partner and Republican strategists alongside Democratic strategist Genie Schanzino, who is a Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. So, Genie, if we consider how all of this is going to shake out, it's very likely. It seems that this is
going to end up in two packages. Right, We're going to try to get something done immediately on the border, which Donald Trump campaigned on, and then wait for his other campaign promise on taxes until later in the year.
Yeah, I think so, it's clearly. I mean, we have heard Trump's associates, some of the closest aids he has make the case, such as Stephen Miller, that that's how it should be done. We have heard from the incoming majority leader of the Senate. There has been some pushback on the House side, but you know, as you look at it and the difficulty of doing this, I think it does make sense for him as far as possible
to get a win. And also we heard Lindsey Graham over the weekend making the case that you have to deal with security at the border and national security before you attempt these other things. I think that's what we're hearing more and more from the President and the incoming administration.
Well, so as we consider the fact that there is some consternation, if you will, about at least what some members of the House, like the chair of the Ways and Means Committee, Jason Smith, want to do here Rick versus what John Thune wants to do with. Isn't Thune's majority that he's dealing with more comfortable? The House is going to have very few few votes that Republicans can lose. And if Jason Smith is saying no, I'm telling you, doing this is one package, is the way I get
these votes. Should it not be his voice that's listened to?
Yeah, I think it's probably going to be his voice is listened to, mostly because of the point you make, Kayley, which is it's just simply easier to get things done. I mean, look at the problem we're having now even getting this stopgap measure. The margins are so thin that Democrats, if they don't go along, you know, with the provisions
on the agriculture spending, that they can stop it. From happening as they have, and all of a sudden, instead of getting this done yesterday, we're still talking about it today and time is running short. The last thing that Trump wants to do is have his agenda kept hostage by Democrats and some Racalcua Trent Republicans and the House of Representatives. So he wants to get whatever he can get quick. And of course we do know his priorities are the border. It's border, border, border. He can do
the tariff, economic, geopolitical stuff himself. And he wants to clear the path for more energy development in the country. And so those things top of mind in the Senate. Let's get it done and we'll get to the taxes as the year goes on.
Well, I want to get into another question that was raised by the attendance at the Army Navy Game this weekend, Rick, and that was that in the presidential suite with the President elect where some of his controversial cabinet nominees, namely Pete Hegseth, who has been tapped for Secretary of Defense. What is the signal there of him being there literally next to Donald Trump and very close proximity to him, Is that Trump saying, you know, I have confidence that
this guy is ultimately going to be confirmed. Or is that Trump threatening others in attendance or who were viewing the events of Saturday saying I am with this guy no matter what, and you need to do what I say when I say that I want him in that slot.
Yeah, probably more the latter. First of all, Trump is always confident that he's going to get what he wants. But I do think in this Cassie realizes that this is a lift that he's going to have to do in order to get this nominee in particular through. And I would say too, who was on the right hand side of Donald Trump in that suite, Telsea Gabber, somebody who he believes Donald Trump leaves will need that same kind of lift. So his two most troublesome cabinet picks
right now we're flanking him at that event. I would say too. An interesting person who is there who's had his own issues with Donald Trump was the chairman of the Joint chiefs of Staff c Q. Brown evidently in that suite, and somebody who likely may lose his job because of this present.
Yeah, a very good point to flag Rick. So We've talked about Pete Hegseth and Toulci Gabbard as being their genie. There's also the question this week of RFK Junior, because he'll be meeting with senators throughout the course of the week. In fact, some twenty five of them will be meeting
with the Health and Human Services Secretary nominee. We heard Donald Trump talking about him from mar A Lago in that press conference this morning, suggesting that he is not as extreme perhaps as others may seem to think that he is, that the polio vaccine isn't going anywhere. But how difficult is it going to be for RFK Junior to make that case himself as he takes these meetings this week.
Yeah, I mean, he's certainly skilled at this is He is famously a very good presenter, and he's very good in meetings. He's very engaging. That said, you know, Donald Trump not only said that he himself is a big believer in the polio vaccine during that press EFTs, but he also at the same time suggested he would give RFK Junior wide latitude. And that's going to be concerning to some of these senators. We've already heard from somebody
like Mitch McConnell. And you know, the reality is Number one, RFK has zero public health expertise. He is an environmental lawyer. Number Two, he spread lies about the COVID vaccine and has associated with anti vaxxers on polio and other things. This is deeply concerning to not just Mitch McConnell, but many Republicans in the Senate. And that's why we understand he's going to go in there starting today and he's going to downplay this skepticism of vaccines. He's going to
downplay his abortion stance and try to be appealing. But I think it is going to be a challenge for him to thread that needle. That said, you know, I look back, Kayley, we have had only one nominee of the President's cabinet in like the last thirty five years denied in the Senate. Almost everyone who left has withdrawn themselves or been withdrawn by the president. So if he gets over that hurdle, statistically, he's likely going to get through.
All right.
Jeanie Shanzeno always bringing the stats for us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio alongside the other half of our signature political panel Rick Davis.
Thank you both.
I should note Rick Davis was also at that Army Navy game on Saturday.
We're both Navy fans.
I think we're both feeling pretty good on Saturday night. But it is Monday, and we still have more of our Monday edition of Balance of Power ahead here, So stick with us on Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on evocar Play and then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
It has been just over one week since the toppling of Basher al Assad's regime in Syria. He was, of course ousted by a rebel group HTS, which is a designated terrorist organization by the US. But we learned this weekend from the US Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln, who was speaking in Jordan as he wrapped up a trip to the Middle East in the aftermath of Assad's fall, that the US has had direct talks with HTS, as
well as a number of other groups. He said that those talks focused on a set of principles that they want to guide this transition of power in Syria, as well as the importance of finding Austin Tice, who, of course, is a missing American journalist still unaccounted for in the country. Let's hear more of what Secretary Blincoln had to say in Jordan on Saturday.
We've seen how the fall of a repressive regime can swiftly give way to more conflicts and chaos, how the shoes of one dictator can be filled by another. Well, now interference by an outside country can be thrown off only to be replaced by another. That's why it's so important that we and our partners came together today to agree on principles that will guide our efforts to help the Syrian people meet these challenges and build the inclusive,
non sectarian, peaceful and sovereign state that they want. Our message to the Syrian people is this, we want them to succeed, and we're prepared to help them do so.
For more, I want to turn now. Tamara Rudman, who is professor at the Miller Center at the University of Virginia, also director of the Ripples of Hope project focused on democratic solutions, and formerly Deputy Envoy for Middle East Peace at the US Department of State. Welcome back to Bloomberg.
Mara.
Always good to have you. As the Secretary talks.
About wanting the Syrian people to succeed, is that success going to be reliant on assuming that HTS, at least in some interim period is in power the US removing HTS is terrorist designation or terror organization designation rather.
It's a good question, and it's good to be here. I think it's hard to say, though, it's hard to answer directly in terms of how that terrorism designation will
get removed. What's the ability to interact with HTS absent that and with a real awareness of the number of different groups and factions and centers of power within Syria right now it's not just HTS, and there's a question of making some tough choices among bad options, and doing it at a time of transition in this country and a number of other key countries as well, in terms of leadership transitions ongoing.
Obviously it's still early days, but to this point, the transition, the management that we've seen from HTS of it, Mara, how would you rate it? It does seem by and large, things have been pretty peaceful and orderly so far.
I think that's a fair characterization. These things can often go bad quickly, but at least from public perceptions, HTS is taking is making a significant effort to first show their strength in being able to govern Damascus and the environs again number of other groups. It's important for them internally to show they're in control. They've also thus far it seem to have been fairly relaxed about how women appear and interactance here, and you can see it on
the news reports. There's a wide range of degrees of covern by women from completely uncovered to you know, fully fully so, and that the traditional extreme Islamist groups would
expect and require women to be fully covered. And there's not been looting, there's not been some of the actions we've seen in other places when despicable leader like Assad has left and there's a certain amount of chaos, And as you point out, they seem to have managed to maintain a certain amount of order, have been sending the right public messages internationally, but have a record that is worth some wariness from outsiders and from those inside Syria.
Well, especially when you consider their historic relationship to al Qaeda. It does speak to the broader concerns the US has not just to making sure there is you know, security for the Syrian people who have been living under Assad and the Assad families regime for decades now, but also this notion that they have been trying to keep Isis the Islamic state at bay and there is concern about
a potential resurgence. What is your degree of concern around that, Mara, that we could see a kind of reigniting of this group's power and ability.
My concern is high. Isis has not gone away, nor has al Qaeda. And what I was referencing earlier in terms of Syria being a country of faction, of different communities and different spheres of power is even more the case. It was the case when Assad was ruling in He kept control, he and his father both in a fairly brutal way. I shouldn't have said fairly brutal, in a
brutal and despicable way. But those factions are still are not only there, but have the potential to gain a tremendous amount of power work in coalition with each other. HTS was formerly a group called Al Lustra, which is I believe where their terrorist designation came, and as you point out, they were on offshoot of al Qaeda. They were a group that kept hostages, including American hostages, during
the ISIS regime and time period. So a lot of reason for awareness and concern and a real effort, and I think you saw it in what Secretaric Lincoln said this weekend of trying to figure out how you get coalitions of like minded countries together around things like principles to advance, and particularly when as I said, the States is going through a transition, Germany a pairents will be going through transition France as a new prime minister, and
Macron has his challenges there. So we're really going to have to work very closely with countries in the region to figure out how we put together these more solid coalitions.
We're just getting some breaking news Mara from the Times of London, which is reporting citing an interview with Muhammad Abu Muhammad al Julani, who of course is the leader here of HTS, who told the Times that he would not allow Siria to be used as a launchpad for attacks against Israel or any other state. And I feel like this does in some way speak to the role Iron will or will not be able to play under this new regimes, considering the alliance they had with Asad.
What is your reaction to that?
What is that signal about the way in which the new transitional government will be approaching Israel specifically?
Thanks well, I think I have two reactions. One is that it's consistent with what I referenced earlier about how the HTS leader Al Johanni is positioning himself and his leadership, so as not just these are the Israel and its concerns, but the kinds of coalition groups that Secretary Blincoln was speaking about, right of trying to assuage the United States and others as well in the region with those kinds
of words. My second reaction, though, is that it's a fairly practical thing for him to say, because we know that part of how Assad fell so quickly in the end was because Iran's air defense capability, Iran's access points are severely limited. They could not go in.
And and.
What has Belah has done in the past and backing up Assad's forces in Srea, all of those things are gone, and Russia does not have the ability to provide air cover either, so it's a fairly low cost and very rational proposition for the HTS leader to put out what he's saying, because he also may not have the means to do anything other than that until he's getting credit internationally for putting out that position.
It makes sense.
Well, I guess it speaks as well to the way in which we've seen Iran through this and through the way in which Israel has been very successful in dismantling a lot of Hesbela's operation, and of course it's leadership we've seen Iran diminished in a lot of ways. Mara, and I wonder if you think that makes Iran less dangerous at least in the near term, or potentially more so if they feel cornered in some way.
It can be both, and I don't mean to avoid your question, but on the why they'd be less dangerous is if what they conclude is because of their lack of because of the extent to which has law has been decimated, and iran Own air defense capabilities and others have other items have been decimated, that means they should turn more rigorously to some sort of negotiating a compromise track with a new Trump administration, with Israel with others,
and that's the conclusion they take that that's the best
way to preserve the regime. They can also go to the other extreme and say no, this means what they need to do is absolutely speed up their ability to develop and potentially deploy their nuclear weapon capability because they have no other option, because all of the other defenses that they put up as essentially no longer exist and it could go either way, which is why it's very important how President Biden handles his last days in office with them, and how the baton is carried over to
President Trump and his team, and how carefully and seriously they evaluate what the options are going forward and what the different trajectories might be, and how they react, how they relate to Iran.
Mara.
In our final two minutes here, what is all this entire conversation around Syria, around Iran, around Hesbola in Lebanon and its proximity to Syria. How does all of it inform your view on what is likely to happen with a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Is it more likely because of all of this?
I hope that that means it's more likely and certainly.
I listened very closely to Jake Sullivan, the American National Security Advisors comments I believe in Israel when he was there most recently, and he's been on the kind of a been a series of meetings with the countries again working very closely and trying to get yet again to a ceasefire that gets the hostages home, that helps to get humanitarian assistants in, and develops a path forward for Gaza, I would say, for Gaza and the West Bank post Hamas.
So I do think that Hamas is even more isolated than they had been previously by the most recent developments. My concern is how much the acting leadership of Hamas, which I believe is in the hands it's point of the brother of Yaya Sinmar, who was killed some weeks ago and who is every bit as diabolical as sinoar as Yaya Sinwar was. What their willingness is to ultimately deploy an exit strategy as opposed to continuing this to the absolute end, and the hostages are key in that.
So I hope Jake Sullivan is really onto something. I hope that it's possible for a variety for reasons I can make an argument that it is prior to President Electromp coming into office, but I'm not as certain as I would like to be, all.
Right, Mara Rudman at the University of Viginia's Miller Center, where she is a professor.
Thank you so much for joining us.
Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
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