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One week to a shutdown and no clear path to avoid one. Welcome to the fastest show in politics. As most lawmakers head home for the weekend without a deal on spending, never mind funding for Israel or Ukraine, though the Speaker of the House is he will drop a stopgap bill tomorrow, We're joined ahead to talk about it by congress Woman Victoria Sparts, the Republican from Indiana, grew up in Ukraine and will bring her unique view to
the conversation. In just a moment. Swing state voters more concerned about the border than threats from abroad that according to new polling from Bloomberg and Morning Consult. Will cover all these stories with our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Gdi Shanzeo and Rick Davis. Welcome to the Friday edition
of Bloomberg Sound On. We do have a bit of news here seven days out the government set to shut down a week from today, well at midnight at least, and it appears Republican leadership in the House is set to drop a continuing resolution tomorrow. We're gonna get actually a real look at what this stopgap measure includes, of course,
aimed at avoiding a government shut down. I asked the one person who got it right last time, Sarah Chamberlain, president CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership, about whether the government would shut down in one week. Here's what she said. Remembering Sarah was the only person who told us the government would not shut down last time, when that was the conventional wisdom. Here she is from Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV.
I think in the very last moment, we don't shut down, but it's gonna I'm gonna sweat it more. Last time, I was one hundred percent confident from the beginning. This time, i'm that, to be honest with then, I knew Kevin much better than I know the current speaking so I had a lot of faith that Kevin would cut the deals. I don't know the current speaker at all, to be honest, but the republic Community Partnership members are really pushing him because we're the ones that live in the bubble. We're
the ones that will lose. We will lose, the majority of the members lose, and they do not want government shut down because all the polling shows it will be blamed on the Republicans.
We'll see one week from today, maybe we'll be playing that tape back. And that's where we begin our conversation with the congresswoman from Indiana, Victorias Sparks, Republican, who has already announced her intention not to run for reelection and can speak freely. Congressman, Congressman, and I hope that's the case. Welcome back to Bloomberg. I wonder if you've had a chance to see this continuing resolution that we expect to drop tomorrow and what's in it.
Well, I think we still have a kind of a discussion, but I all of us spoke freely, regardless if I run or not, you know, because I truly believe we need to do it. So I'll tell you one saying, I think the discussions we have and I'll be honest with you, no one is talking about shut it down the government.
We are talking about it.
How can we really force some appropriate processes and how we want to make sure that we don't have a last second, you know, omnibus from the Senate before Christmas. It's been done now for years, which it does the service to the people, and there is a way for us to come to find consensus on border security and have a debt commission. So maybe we have a better plan next year how to deal with crushing debt and inflation.
I think it will be very hard, since we do have a position on that, you know, from the Democrats and the Senate, for us to do some more heavy lifting. So it probably will be much easier. You know, it's much more simple resolution where it's going to be funding. I hope to more like mid January or we go over the holidays, so there is no pressure to do bad bills. Also, it hits one percent cut that was agreed and also maybe add an Israel with some offsets.
I think that is kind of discussions we have.
Okay, got it. Our reporting says that the Speaker is looking at this idea of a laddered cr that would not be a whole bunch of deadlines, but in fact two one group of appropriations bills expiring in January, the other in February. Does that sound like a plan to you?
Yeah, listen, it's an option. You know.
It makes it a little bit complicated for us to explain what it is, and it will make them for the Senate much you know, they will try to jam something, you know, probably with mid December, because that's the goal of the Senate to jam something to us and right before Christmas to force everyone to vote for omnibus. So I think that's an option if we can try to
do a two tier at CR. One of them will go to mid January and there are some appropriation we're already passed, and we're really in the Senate pass some too, but force us to go into conference and actually have a true appropriation process where we try to agree, not going through omnibus. So that's I think the intent, you know, and I think more Republicans are inclined to have this two tier CR. You know, we just need to decide
with timing. So we need to make sure that they're not going to cent us something last second before everyone leaves, and there's going to be something we don't want. So unfortunately, too much politics, but we'll see what majority of Republicans. I am open to do either one as long as we're not doing something before Christmas?
Do you need to see cuts to vote?
Yes?
Listen, if we actually go through January fifteenth or nineteen, so we actual already will have at least, you know, modest one percent cut, which is better than Carress done
for years now. So because we're already, you know, and during death Sealing negotiation, we had a lot of people call it Massy cut because courssmen messy trying to be realistic, because with inflation, even have one percent cut, it's already actually a huge cut, right considering now inflation unfortunately, you know, So I think that will actually will do it cut. You know, I think airing more stuff maybe easier. Al with offsets, I think it will be very, very difficult.
Some of my people do want to have border security. I personally beg you know, proponent of debt commission, but it might have to be dealt a little bit later this year.
I want to ask you about that debt commission, and I'm glad that you brought that up. You actually threatened to resign from Congress a little over a month ago during the last funding debate. Specifically, you said if a debt commission was not passed this year, you said in a statement. Quote, there is a limitation to human capacity.
Congress Woman, you said, if Congress does not pass a debt commission this year to move the needle on the crushing national debt and inflation at least at the next debt ceiling increase at the end of twenty twenty four, I will not continue sacrificing my children for this circus with a complete absence of leadership, vision, and spine. You're right, I cannot save this Republic alone. There's still no debt commission, Congresswoman, will you resign still if one is not created?
Litten, we got much more progress, and it took me a while to move Kevin mccarthson in the right direction. Speak at Johnson and he's wear an in speech. He actually brought this issue. So I'm glad to hear that he's understand to see this policy. But we've just been working on the Senate and since he was seen, we actually just had Senator Romian Mansied and some other Democrat and Republicans Senator's introducing it, you know, yeah, just yesterday,
So the day before yesterday they introduced it. So I think it's important and we see some movement in the Senate on a bipartiesan basis to be serious and have a genuine conversation, so we'll, you know, we all see what is going to happen. I think it's a you know, border security and crushing debt. It's two major national securities issues. We've been neglected for a very long time. But I
think they become serious enough. If we don't start doing something, then just continue doing politics, because people don't realize whatever we govern right now, in the next few months, the rest of the year, everyone will be doing politics and doing election campaigns and fundraising, so nothing serious is going to be happening legislatively. Let's just be honest. So we have to become adults in the room and do something in governing, not do politics and campaigning.
The right next day after the election. It's irresponsible.
You sound as passionate as ever, conversoone, are you sure you want to resign?
Well, listen, I don't know. I'm going to listen, I said.
Because I told Kevin, if he's not going to deliver a serious issue, I said, I'm going to assess the situation.
But I don't give up easily. I'm working very.
Hard, and I think we're getting Senate to attraction too, so I listened had I had a lot of fights. Kevin was a nice guy, but he's definitely didn't like to govern. Mike Johnson is much better speaker on governing. He truly wants to deliver for the people on issues. It shouldn't be partisan. What is security in debt shouldn't
be partisan issues? And I'm glad you know, I've been working extremely hard with the Senate, reaching out to all of the sides of the aisle myself, and I'm glad to see that Senate finalist that movement a little bit.
We should note to our viewers and listeners that you voted against Austin Speaker McCarthy.
Uh.
Just for what it's worth, Congresso, when I'd like to ask you about Ukraine, you of course grew up in Ukraine and have a unique view on this funding debate. You've made it clear that you support funding the war effort, but you also have suggested that you want to see accountability on how that money is spent. What would it look like. How would that accountability or audit be strong enough to satisfy you?
Well, I think first we need accountability, but also you know accountability. A lot of money actuallys that supposedly airmark for Ukraine, they don't even go to Ukraine, they go to a lot of association causes's become a slash fund,
which kind of does the service to this appense. But also to make sure that we know what the strategy is because President Biden tells one things on TV, but his action has been slow working the aid and really been very weak, you know so and you only can you know, deal with aggresses like put In with weapons and usual only ten to twenty percent of money goes directly to weapons. The rest goes to some other things, and you cannot win the war. So he needs to
be honest. What is his strategy and how the strategy and actions could be aligned together. And I think these are conversations we need to ask because we have a lot of issues. We have to deal with a lot of domestic issues, and we want to be strong abroad because those countries like Russia, China or Iran causing a lot of headaches and they're all after us. But we need to have strengths and strategy when we deal with
stuff like that. And I think that's going to be a discussion and President ows to Countress and American people to explain what's happening and also to be more transparent and why it is in our national interest, because ultimately we need to understand that all of these issues are going to be affecting us and they're destabilizing the whole world.
And what's happening in Israel is not by accident.
Can Ukraine win this war?
Ukrainian people, you know, will eventually win this war because you know, the millions of life destroyed.
It's a matter for them how many lives it will take, you know, because millions of life has already destroyed, hundred thousands of people already killed, family is destroyed. I mean, countriverts to so much suffering. Now you have a very difficult situation to reconcile.
And unfortunately we're not was decisive before the war, in the first year of the war, because in Russia now is being destabilized and they're very good at hybrid warfare. They're destabilizing Europe, meddle easy mingling in Africa, making deal with the Rinds in China, and you know, career, I mean they you know, listen, don't underestimate you know, the FORMAKGB apparatus. How they're good at buying and you know, destabilizing.
I mean they try to destabilize us here too, And I think the social media is becoming even you know, and more and more they have capabilities on that. And so I think it's important for us to you know, have peace through strength, to have strong strategy, but also have an actions because we need to have allies.
We need to.
Support our allies around the world, but we also need to make sure that we're tough with aggressors, and we also need to make sure we deal with domestic issues first, because if we're not strong internally, it only benefit our adversaries.
Well.
Bloomberg is reporting that advocates of aid to Ukraine are dangling a lot of dollars in front of lawmakers based on military contractors and other firms that are in their states. If you look at the potential windfall for companies like General Dynamics and raytheon now RTX, it might be difficult for lawmakers to say no to this, knowing that a lot of this money is going to stay here in the US. Congresswoman, will Ukraine aid pass?
Well?
Listen, I think you know and truly we actually you know, even we help, even though you know, the United States will force Ukraine to give new clep appens and have a piece of papor so but but regardless what it is, I actually prefer that would have done it through land lease, where we actually not just give them money, but Ukrainean governments will owe as the money back.
That would have been my preferred way to do it.
And also we need to you know, so American people what a benefit it is and how it is, you know, how important for Ukrainians to win that. There are a lot of implications on that, so I don't think that's how people look at that. But I think on Ukrainian aid, unfortunately, we'll have to leveragh some domestic issues, and that's a
discussion Republicans have. We want to have tiden border security legislatively, because if we don't protect our border, and now what's happening with terrorism on the rise in the Middle East, it's become a serious issue. We will have a huge problem internally. So I think a lot of Republicans want bet overside more clear strategy, but also have border security in the return you know, of any foreign aid, in particularly Ukrainian aid.
Congress Woman is good to have you and I appreciate your time today. Congress Woman Victoria's sparks the Republican from Indiana, giving us a little bit of a sense about what we might see tomorrow when this continuing resolution is dropped by the Republican Speaker in the House of what might follow next week, we'll take a quick swing with our panel before a deeper dive ahead with Rick Davis and
Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Genie, the lattered CR we were told was a non starter for Democrats in the House and the Senate. Is this just another way the time?
I think it is, in the end going to be. We also heard that from some Republicans who are terribly concerned about this approach as well. The limited as we are in time, the smart thing to do is a clean CR. To waste time doing this walks us ever closer to what you were just talking about, which is a potential government shutdown that it is in everybody's interest to avoid. So I do think this is a problematic strategy.
But when the speaker, the new Speaker, feels like he has no choice but to pursue At this point, we'll.
Have more time for this Rick, But do you see a shutdown on the cards in one week?
Yeah?
Very well, could be.
I mean it's very unusual to not have any real clear indications from the Speaker as to what form and substance the cr is going to take very hard to whip votes. I'm not getting any indication, and he's aggressively being going out and whipping boats for this CR.
Yet.
We're going to get into this in more depth with our political panel coming up, along with new polling Day from Bloomberg and Morning Consults. As we get back to this issue of the border the congresswoman was talking about for swing state voters, that's more important than threats from abroad. We'll get into that straight ahead. On the Fastest Show in Politics, This is Bloomberg.
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The Fastest Show in Politics. As we skid into a weekend here without a plan in sight on avoiding a government shutdown just one week away. Though, as we were just talking about, I'm glad you joined us here on the radio, on the satellite, and on YouTube. We are going to see a bill tomorrow, Speaker Johnson said, to unveil his continuing resolution, will find out if it's laddered or not. And that is the idea here. Some of the appropriations would expire in January, others in February, and
that would not avoid a one percent cut. As we discussed a little while ago with Congresswoman's sparts, I'm Joe Matthew and Washington, and we've got our panel together, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano helping us understand what's going on here. The debate surrounding Ukraine funding, which is something that the congresswoman supports, a native of Ukraine, born and raised in Ukraine before moving to this country and becoming a lawmaker.
That tied with border funding, and we're going to talk quite a bit about that now we've got new pulling data from Bloomberg on the border. There is a non starter for Democrats, at least for now. Remember Chuck Schumer just a couple of days ago on the Senate floor, calls it a poison pill.
A group of Senate Republicans released a proposal for border security that they want in exchange for Ukraine funding, and they know full well what they came up with is a total non starter. Instead of puting together common sense border policies that can pass in divided government, Senate Republicans basically copy and paste did large chunks of the House House's radical HR two bill.
And it's looking like Ukraine funding will not be part of a continuing resolution. This is going to take a minute. With no agreement between the two parties, or apparently the two chambers, let's bring the panel in on this, Rick Davis, We've got numbers from Bloomberg and Morning Consul today, Swing state voters book border before Mideast and Ukraine conflicts. How does that inform for you the debate that we're about to hear combining the border in Ukraine.
Yeah, it was only about three weeks ago that we were talking about the border funding being actually a drag
on some of this supplemental spending. But if I'm a Democrat and I'm looking at twenty twenty four and the kind of numbers we've seen in the Bloomberg pole out today that I'm going to jump on board the funding for border in a minute, in no time at all, because if they don't, if they're not seen as being productive, if they're not seen as being protective, if they don't look like they are trying to ensure border integrity for the United States, they're going to get punished in twenty
twenty four. Because this is an issue that has only gotten stronger as more people come across the border.
The numbers are hard to deny. Here, Genie, about three times as many voters said immigration is their top issue in the twenty four presidential contest as those who said the same about the Israel Hamas war. Sixty eight percent of respondents in the Bloomberg Morning Console poll, and we had a sample of almost five thousand people, so they approve of funding for border protection a larger share than the sixty one percent who back a to Israel and
the fifty eight percent who favor aid to Ukraine. You can see the chart here if you're with us watching on YouTube. So I could ask you this in a couple of different ways. Jeanie, do you agree with Rick for starters, Democrats need to get on board or is it more nuanced than that? Do Democrats need to start delineating between the so called border and immigration policy, because they're two very different things.
You know, if you look at the package that the President put forward and has supported, it does have funding in there for the border, for Taiwan, for Israel, and for Ukraine. So you know they did that. One hundred and six billion does include that. And I have long said and this pole the numbers are very big. To your point, seven out of ten Americans in this poll registered voters in these swing states importantly supporting or approving funding for border protection. That is no surprise. Look at
the results on Tuesday. Democrats did well on the issue of abortion. But you look at my home state of New York and you see some bright spots for Republicans. The Suffolk County executive race, the biggest executive race or the biggest county in the country, Republicans won, and they won it on the back of border security immigration issues, and that is going to repeat itself across the country. Prime and security will always best foreign policy in the
minds of voters. Unless we have boots on the ground so since we don't, it's always going to best that in the minds of voters and come in, you know, a close second to something like the economy. So this is no surprise the administration and Democrats have got to get a handle on it. People, this is their daily lives experience. In New York City, one hundred thousand people came into the city and the shelters are overwhelmed. That
is just one city, that's where people are living. They don't feel like we have the ability to sustain that without federal action on this issue that we've been waiting for decades to get federal action on. So yes, they should absolutely take this opportunity to fund the border with Israel and with Ukraine and Taiwan.
Let's look at these states here. It's Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. This is why it's more important, frankly, than a national poll. So we can really zero in here on the results. Rick Donald Trump leads Joe Biden forty seven percent to forty one percent across the seven states in this poll. Are we done with this conventional wisdom that Trump is the one man Biden can.
Beat Yeah, I think that this kind of blows that out of the water. Bloomberg pole of a month ago actually had Trump at forty seven also, but it had Biden at forty three. So it's actually a couple points down for Biden. So Democrats have to wake up and realize they're in a fight. Where's the Biden campaign? What ads are they running right now? Positive ads about Joe Biden?
I mean this idea that they were somehow enthusiastic about Donald Trump being there, not the Republican nominee against them is is?
Is juvenile?
I mean, it doesn't actually portend a good outcome for Biden based on these polls. And so I'm actually amazed that there's not more of a fight right now going on with the Biden campaign. You know, I was told just the other day they're not even polling, So why would they even know if not for Bloomberg, you know that they're in a they're in a horse race.
Well, we're doing what we can here, Genie, are you growing worried about numbers like this? You remember we've been hearing this for months and months. Just don't you know, we don't want Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley because they might win. We want to rematch with Donald Trump. Is that flawed thinking?
You know, I don't think so, and I'm going to surprisingly take exception ad impact just came out the Biden campaign has spent thirty nine million dollars to day on advertising for twenty four That is much more than the two previous presidents. So they are out there talking, they are out there spending. He was just in Illinois yesterday. More importantly, we all talk all the time about the fact that you can't combine these states. Let's not look
at this forty seven percent number. Let's look at these states individually. The numbers are better for Trump than Democrats would like. But it is in five of the seven states that they are within a margin of error.
So yeah, hide in Michigan, Jeanie, it's to your point that is correct. Well, well, well, I.
Would even say, yeah, tied, not only in Michigan, five states when you look at the margin of error, so you know, to say Trump is ahead in in six of those states is a misnomer because in five of those states that they are within a margin of error. The margin of eras and polls matter when we don't tell people that they expect that these numbers are solid, and they are not. They are a probability, and they are within a margin. That said, I am the biggest
skeptic on some of this stuff and very pessimistic. The campaign has got to focus on the economy as much as possible, but more importantly on the messenger. People are terribly concerned about Joe Biden's age. They have got to do what they can on that, and I don't think
we can separate out those two. And by the way, I would take Biden over Trump with ninety four indictments and facing criminal charges over the next year any day of the week, even though he does have an age issue that he's got to contend with and inflation as well.
I'm sure he would. Jeanie, that would have been news if you said differently. And look, I appreciate the perspective that you bring here. That's why you're both with us, but this is not the layup clearly that a lot of people have been making it out to be. To Rick Davis's point, great conversation on the poll, and you can read a lot more about it on the terminal, And of course at Bloomberg we're doing this every month
with Morning consult next hour. In fact, we're gonna have the deep dive on the numbers with Eli Yoakley for Morning Consults. So I hope you be with us at two o'clock Washington time for that.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
And so they will finally meet at last, President Biden. President She next week, as the headline screams on the terminal, Biden She set to meet November fifteen and the sidelines of the Apex Summit. We knew that was a possibility, but the confirmation here is important. God knows they have been winding up to this one for a while. Let's go all the way back to June. Remember that little
balloon that was floating over Montana. They were supposed to meet around that time as well, and that certainly delayed things. This was Joe Biden on the twenty second of June.
We had an incident that caused some confusion, you might say, President, but the Secretary of Blincoln had a great trip to China. I expect to be meeting with President She sometime in the future a near term, and I don't think it's had any real consequence.
We'll see about that. It's been a challenged relationship, as we've discussed in great detail here on sound On and across the platform here on Bloomberg. Think about what's happening with the chips, with Nvidia, with Apple. Never mind the drills that we've been seeing in the South China Sea, the building of military installations around the global South, great concern here in Washington about the way forward with China.
I haven't even mentioned Taiwan. Let's reassemble the panel for their thoughts on this and the stakes ahead for this meeting. Jeannie Schanzano and Rick Davis are with us a Bloomberg Pom' six contributors. Rick November fifteen. I suspect the administration will keep expectations as low as possible. Is this an ice breaker at this point? Just a chance to be in the same rum or? Can they get something done? Yeah, there's no.
Question that they need to break the ice. I mean, relations could not be more poor than they are today. I mean most pundents would argue that we're in a full fledged cold war with China, and so this may be the first time that these two leaders get together under those kinds of circumstances. And I would say that I think the Biden administration's expectations are rightfully low. I mean, it's pretty bad when you say one of the top things you want to get out of it is the
ability to communicate. Nah, I don't get that. I mean, like communicate what well? We want to have military conversations, that's it. I mean, what happened with the Wigers? Where are we with you know, military incursions in the South China? Say, I mean, there are a lot of issues to discuss, but just discussing as a priority seems a little weak.
So the goal again, and this has been the goal in the past with these two Genie I suspect, is to get to another meeting. This is someone Joe Biden referred to as a dictator a couple of months ago. How much can they get along here?
Yeah, it's going to be very interesting their first face to face and over a year and relations have been incredibly fraud and of course, due to your point, everything that happens surrounding the balloon, and the way the United
States responded didn't help. And in the meantime, of course, we have what's happening in the Middle East, and we also have the continuation of what's happening in Europe, and you find the United States and China deeply divided and on both sides of those issues, and so there is so much for them to discuss. It is frightening that they have not done that in over a year. So commune medication is critically important, but arguably it's not enough.
And I think the White House, you know, they are right, they're not going to expect anything big out of this policy wise, but hopefully they set up to your point for increased communication and not just with people below the two presidents, but with the leaders themselves, because we've seen a lot of back and forth, particularly people from the United States Blink and Yellen, others going over to China.
We need to have these leaders meeting in the way they are next week, and we need to have them addressing some of these critical issues that are dividing us. As Yellen just said, these ties are critically important to us and to the world, and they need to be shored up in a substantive way going forward.
Rick, the Genie's Point's been over a year. Last time these two sat down or spoke was at the G twenty Bali. That was November of twenty twenty two. What does it say to us that she is actually crossing the ocean to come here this time, because we know that he has hardly left the country since the beginning of COVID.
Yeah, I would argue that it's probably a higher priority for him these days than it is for us. You know, failing economy, you know, all kinds of foreign policy issues, barking at his doors, you know, failed relationships with Russia
over the Ukraine War. I mean, you know, he's got some issues, and I think it's probably important for him to try and turn the page on US relations because any kind of thing that would upset trade relations with US right now could have a really bad salutary effect on Chinese economy, which he does not need right now.
Last time she was on US soil, Genie was twenty seventeen. Remember the setting mar A Lago. How does Joe Biden follow up on the venue here? We haven't been told where exactly they will meet other than the San Francisco Bay Area.
Yeah, it will not match the opulence of mar A Lago. There will be no Donald Trump portrait in the room. You know, he's not going to Rehobeth Beach. But it'll be substantive. Nonetheless, San Francisco is a beautiful place to be. They can find a great venue. But I think the most important thing. I mean, it's stunning to think twenty seventeen before most people in the United States were even thinking about or ever heard about COVID, how much has
happened in the world. And that's why this meeting is so important. And given how this was questionable whether this would in fact take place, the fact that we hear it will definitely take place is critically important.
Mari A Lago or not.
They'll have to, you know, go without Donald Trump being the DJ at mar A Lago for a little bit.
Come on, that's not fun, Rick, I've only got thirty seconds here. But would you contrast mar A Lago and make this the most stark setting possible, maybe serve you know, Upway sandwiches or something.
I don't think you have to downplay it that much, but just being in San Francisco is pretty stark.
It's not like that city at the top of its game. You know, hopefully Jack, I was waiting for it.
You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern.
On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in alf Bloomberg dot Com, and.
The Bloomberg Business app.
You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound Gone. Welcome to Friday. It was a short I had a three day work a grueling three day work week, and I don't know, Kaylee, I the shorter the weeks are, the longer they feel. I'll never understand it.
I agree with that.
But also every single week feels like a month or two in and of itself, So you know, time means nothing to me anymore.
Well, especially when you're Kaylee Lines and your host four shows today and do all that while you're.
But hey, welcome to Friday. It's good to see it. We have new polling data.
Yes, pretty fresh too. This broke on balance of power less than what was a twelve something twenty.
Four hours of twenty one hours ago.
Thank you.
And it is making a dent here because we spend a lot of time obsessing over national polls that frankly don't mean a lot. And boy, when you look at the swing states here, we did this a month ago. This is the update now, whether it's Arizona or Georgia, we're looking at some real struggles for Joe Biden, not only on the horse race, but specifically when it comes to issues they're arguing about. We talk about it every day. Funding for Israel and Ukraine, whether that would be tied
with border funding. Swing state voters clear they care much more about the security at our border than they do anything going on the other side of the world.
Yeah, that's what the poll show. Sixty eight percent of voters in these swing states would rather fund the border or are supportive of funding border security on the border with US in Mexico VERSUS, say, Israel or Ukraine. Funding. That is problematic potentially for a president who has really tried to be a America's back president, a foreign policy president, a globalist in a way that is quite opposite to the former president who is much more of an isolationist.
In Donald Trump, and yet this poll also shows that they trust Trump more than Biden on a lot of these foreign policy issues.
Yes.
And in terms of the horse race, are we going to finally dispel of this idea that Donald Trump is the one man Joe Biden can definitely beat and not worry so much about who might come in second, Because when you put these together as an aggregate's forty seven forty one, a wider gap that Donald Trump holds over Joe Biden than even a month ago.
Yes, and I think given the consistency here that it's showing up not just in this Bloomberg Morning Consult poll, but in a lot of other polling as well. I think that notion might have to be put to bed, at least for the time being, given what we are seeing consistently in voters' opinions.
So we set the table here, let's bring in the experts. Eli Yoakley is with US political analyst at Morning Consult. Eli, welcome back here in Washington at the table with US Greg Reecordy, Bloomberg Politics reporter. It's great have you both here. Gregory was distilling the numbers on the terminal. Eli helped to generate them to begin with with our partners at morning consult and Eli, I'll start, I guess with that
very same question. There was some argument about it last hour here on Bloomberg and Republicans and Democrats clearly don't agree on this. But Joe Biden can't claim that Donald Trump is the one person he can beat any longer? Can he?
This race is neck and neck, probably probably not. I mean, even when you add in the independent candidate's like RFK Junior and Cornell West, the race is a head to head contest in most of these states. Clearly, Joe Biden is struggling with the kinds of voters who voted for him in twenty twenty. I mean, one of the most striking things in this survey is his twenty twenty voters are less likely to say they support him today than
Donald Trump's are. He has a problem with his Democratic base that is weighing him down in all sorts of questions.
Well, and Gregory, that might not be his only problem. I know you spent a lot of time buried in this data trying to distill it, and isn't it what it shows that things that the president is spending a lot of his energy on say, meeting with Shijhin Ping next week, pushing for funding for Israel and Ukraine are just not the things that voters care as much about.
Yeah, as president, you can't always pick your issues that come to you, right, the buck stops here, and when it comes to issues like the Israel Hamas War or the Ukraine Russian War, that's an issue that the president's got to deal with. When presidents do have a choice, they generally like to wait until their second terms to take on foreign policy. It's a legacy project because they've
already survived that re election effort. And here you have a President Biden being forced to deal with issues on the world stage. While US voters, especially in these swing states that we've surveyed, are still very much focused on the economy. Inflation is still the number one issue within that economy issue group, and foreign affairs ranks way down the of issues that voters care most about.
You talk about border security, how about when it comes to the economy, this is still the overriding issue that's going to decide this selection, is it not?
Look, the economy is always the issue. It's become a political cliche, the old was it? Jim Carvill or George Stephanopolois, James Cargo. It's the economy stupid, and it's still the economy stupid. It's almost absolutely and especially when times are bad. When when times are good, people have the luxury more so to argue about social issues and foreign policy and other things. When the economy is bad, it's the only issue.
And voters are telling us that the economy is bad. Now, we might look at an economic indicators and say, well, look that the the unappoyment rate is still near historic lows. The inflation rate is coming down now. It was very high, but it's on a downward trajectory. Voters aren't feeling that quite yet. They still feel like this is an economy that hasn't quite recovered from the pandemic. And they're blaming Joe Biden. Why because he's the president of United States.
When you're the president of the United States, whether you cause the issue or not, you're accountable for fixing it.
But you made the point as well that if the economy was bad, we wouldn't probably be obsessing over all these other issues that kayley than its own indicator.
I guess that makes sense to you, Gregory.
I'm sorry, did I twist that around. Yeah, yeah, that is good. Yes, yes, we can.
Get upset about a lot of things. But if it's not so, it just speaks to the issues that we're discussing in this poll.
Yeah.
Well, so one of the things that you're hearing from the Biden campaign in the White House is an emphasis on issues like abortion. We saw that this week with the elections in Virginia and Ohio that in some ways were considered a referendum on that issue. And in those places where abortion was on the ballot, either literally or
by proxy, Democrats did very well. And so yes, we're going to see in the next year Joe Biden continuing to go back to that issue because it is one that motivates Democratic voters.
Eli to bring you back in the conversation here, we're talking about what motivates Democratic voters and Republican voters. And of course we're looking at the poll here and what is presumed to be who thet the tickets on either side is going to be. It's going to be Donald Trump versus Joe Biden. And yet there are room there is room here for third parties, and that was evident in this poll as well. RFK Junior getting what ten percent? Could that get even more disruptive potentially.
I mean, I think some of that is people just being unhappy with the candidates they have right now. I mean, a good chunk of voters like ten percent suppor RFK another shares, so I think back somebody else. Both sides of the aisle are not thrilled about their nominees, despite the fact that Joe Biden and Donald Trump lead their respective primaries by a lot. But you know, currently there is some unease in the elector about re elevating these people.
But at the end of the day, I mean, this contest between the two candidates the American people have is going to be a close one, and I think that the survey proves that.
I'm spending some time with Eli Yoakley at morning consulting Gregory Cordy here at Bloomberg looking over our polling results. Here Genie Shanzino Eli in our last hour, our Democratic analyst who is an expert on polling, a political science professor, took some issue with this idea of producing an aggregate number from swing states, many of which were within the margin of error. Is there some truth to that?
I mean, maybe, but we look at the specific states and the numbers are all pretty similar. I mean, both Joe Biden in each of the states that we surveyed does not have voters trust to hay and handle a range of issues. The economy is clearly the top issue. On the Israel issue ranks pretty low in all of the states, and Joe Biden is almost losing in most of these states.
And to that point, Gregory on Israel ranking very low. I believe three percent of those that were surveyed said that that was a top issue for them going into this election, especially given the ongoing conversations on Capitol Hill about how Israel should be funded, what conditions may be tied to it, whether or not Ukraine should continue to get funding at all. Results like these theoretically could give members of Congress some cover in not supporting that.
Right.
Yeah, So this is These numbers on Israel, on Ukraine, on the border complicate Joe Biden's life in two ways. One is, he's trying to get this one hundred and six billion dollars supplemental spending bill through Congress, and he's doing that by trying to give a little bit to everybody he wants to include Ukraine AID, Israel AID, and
the border. And there are majorities, or at least pluralities of Americans in these swing states that support each one of those, but sometimes they're different majorities in each one of these areas. So you have republic are very much split over Ukraine. Republicans very much want to support Israel, but on Israel, that's where Biden starts to lose some
of his own Democratic base. The more progressive you are, the younger you are, some minority groups are disproportionately opposed to supporting Israel, and Biden thinks he should be doing more to help civilians in Gaza. And so if those voters are disillusioned by Biden going into twenty twenty four, they're not going to vote for Trump, but maybe they stay home Blan. It's got a difficult balancing act here, especially in college campuses. This is a big issue as we've.
Seen does it grease the skids though ELI on getting Ukraine funding passed. If it needs to come with border security funding, more Democrats might be on board with this idea, and they see numbers like these.
I mean, funding the border is very popular across party lines. This is an issue that kind of a units to the American people, and it's one that President and performed very very poorly on. He needs to get a border win on the immigration issue. If he can keep these things together, perhaps that could work. The problem is this Ukraine issue is now politically device of Republicans on Capitol Hill see no real motivation to work with him on this,
at least in the House. He's also some Senate Republicans are with him, but this is going to be a big lift on Capitol Hill. And this survey, I think suggests that focusing on Israel and the word may be the path forward for now.
And of course we have to keep in mind that this survey was completed as it was set to be released before we got the news that Senator Joe Manchin is not seeking reelection in twenty twenty four. Obviously could be problematic for the Democratic Party in terms of keeping a majority in the Senate as that seat may very well go to a Republican. It shifts the math. But also this idea that okay, maybe we really are going to get a unity ticket from No Labels and maybe
very well we could see Joe Manchin on it. ELI has Morning Consul doesn't work on what no they Boles could actually see in terms of support if they were to decide to run a candidate.
I think that might be showing up in some of the someone else we have here. There's clearly a chunk of the electorate that is open to it. I think the way we've thought about it more is thinking about the Senate map. I mean, Joe Manch, Joe Mansion leaving the Senate makes a huge lift for Democrats who trying to move forward with a Senate majority, and they're on tough turf in all of the competitive states right now. Joe Manchin was losing his popularity in West Virginia. The
Republican nominee is one of the most popular governors. The may is going to be the Republican nominee probably is one of the most popular governors in Thery. He was probably going to lose that race, and so this is going to be a big lift for Senate Democrats moving forward.
You went there, Kayley, so let's go there to the video Joe Manchin from yesterday.
I will not be running for reelection to the United States Senate, but what I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a move to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together, a.
Movement to mobilize the middle, Gregory, what would that look like.
Here's the issue with that is that there's there's no money in moderation.
Right.
Joe Manchin gets some of the lowest proportions of small dollar donors to his Senate campaign of any senator in the country. Because if you're a small donor, dollar donor, what do you get excited about? You get excited about Ted Cruz or Elizabeth Warren. There's not a lot of passion in the middle. And that's that's one of the big challenges that no labels is going to have that Joe Mansion's going to have. Maybe it's Larry Hogan or
a Chris san Unu, a moderate Republican mid Romney. Who are the people who are going to go out and circulate signatures on a petition to get Joe Manchin on the ballot in fifty states. I'm sure they exist. But you know, look, we have a two party system, and that under our system, you win a party primary, you automatically advanced to fifty state ballots. When you're an independent like Joe Manchin. You've got to start that process from scratch, and it's getting late in the game. Ross pro did it.
He was the last person to do it. And when it seems to think the highest watermark for these independent and third party candidates that we've seen in thirty years, but it's still it's still quite the left.
You're going with Mitt Romney, huh mansion out there. I mean, you're not the first to suggest it. They put up that debt commission build together yesterday, same day he made the announcement. Eli Yoakley at Morning Console. Thank you Eli, Thanks as always to Greg recording with Kaylee Lions. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
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Live from Washington, where the blockade against military promotions is still in place and it has been for nine months. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines and Kaylee This of course comes down to one man, a loan senator, the coach, Tommy Tubberville, the Senator from Alabama. He's nine months into this thing, and we're looking at somewhere in the area of three hundred and seventy military promotions that are on ice in his protest of the abortion travel policy at the Pentagon.
Yeah, a policy that has affected a much smaller number than the number of military members of the military who had their promotions held up at this point. So it becomes a question of where the off ramp is and at what point we ultimately reach it. There was obviously a meeting within the Republicans in the Senate earlier this week about potential endgames. What would need to happen in order to get around this or for Tommy Tubberbtville to be satisfied. Just still not exactly clear what that is
if that is achieved. And in the meantime, there are a lot of individuals, including Democrats, looking at workarounds.
Democrats, even Republicans Joni or Espring. So that the idea is fine, then you don't want to pass them in a block, will bring them individually, one by one on the Senate floor. And that's what Tim Kaine thought he would try yesterday. He said, all three hundred and sixty three of them, if I don't run out of steam. And so here's Tim Kaine, the Senator from Virginia in the outset. Here, this is a bit of a saga that we're going to walk out.
I ask unanimous consent that the Senate proceed to the consideration of the following nomination Calendar Item forty six, Colonel Lee A. Swanson to be Brigadier General. That the Senate vote on the nomination without intervening action or debate. That if confirmed, the motion or reconsider be considered, made and laid upon the table with no.
Intervening action or debate.
That any statements related to the nomination be printed in the record, And that the President be immediately notified of the Senate's action.
So nothing controversy.
Objection is President the Senator from Alabama.
Object Yeah, I have Jack. That's Tommy Tuberville. He was on the floor for the whole thing. By the way, Tim Kaine set up a military Day from Alabama signed behind him, a Happy Birthday Marine Corps and a Veteran's Day by the way, A happy Veterans Day.
Yeah, thank you to all who have served.
You're part of our show today. Indeed, thank you for your service. Uh, this is probably not going to make you very happy. So that was Corey Booker presiding over the Senate. By the time John Fetterman got there, this turned into a bit of a city.
Is there an objection?
I was President, the Senator from Alabama object? Objection is heard?
Is the next item calendar two two nine? Mister President, Then I asked the same request that would be in order to make the same request with respect calendar item two to nine, Captain David E. Ludwell to be rear Admiral lower half.
Try again on a difference.
Is there an Objection's? President, the Senator from Alabama object The objection is heard.
The objection is heard as we bring in the General Mark KIMMITTT, retired Brigadier General, former Assistant Secretary of State for Political Military Affairs. General, It's good to see you and welcome back. I know John Fetterman was laughing there, but it's not obviously a very funny matter with these promotions held up. Tommy Tarberville showing no signs of stopping he's even standing on the Senate floor to go through
three hundred of these at a time if necessary. What should be the strategy in dealing with this.
Well, I'm not a politician, nor do I understand Senate rules, but it's clear that we need to get these people on the job because it's not just three hundred officers, it's a thousand officers. Why is it a power, Well, if the commander is not in the job, then the deputy commander has to take over. The deputy commander's not on the job, then the assistant commander has to take over, and the deputy assistant has to take over for him.
So essentially you have three people in temporary jobs having to do the work of for and that simply has an effect on not only readiness, but candidly good order and discipline within the unit.
Well, what you hear consistently, though, general from Senator Tuberville is that this isn't impacting military readiness, that the military is still functioning. And what we hear is that it's not just about readiness in the moment, but what the future ramifications will be for the US military in terms of retention, in terms of recruitment, can you just expand upon that.
Well, I think those are two different issues between retention and recruitment. Candidly, you're talking about the generals at the very very top of the pecking order. I'm not sure any private considers retent that he will either stay in the military or not stay in the military based on a general's promotion. However, some would say this is just a symptom of a larger malaise within the military, most exemplified by the services that can't recruit enough people to
come in. Don't think it necessarily has an issue to do with what Senator Tubberville is doing, but there are a lot of other issues that are keeping our young men and women from joining the services.
General, we've discussed the argument before that this is not a major impact on readiness because there's a chain of command and that's the point of the structure in the military. How long can that argument be made.
Well, again, at the general officer level, A very long and unfortunately bad period of time. Long period of time, but look, if you take a look at the battlefield. I was watching the documentary last night or the show The Pacific and watching those commanders die on the battlefield and those young lieutenants taking over and the sergeants taking over.
I think at the lowest level, the ground tactical level, and at the highest level of the strategic level, the military readiness will not be impacted for a very, very long period of time. But I'm more concerned about those other issues that you referenced, recruiting and retention.
But on the idea of readiness, and you say it may take some time in actuality in reality for readiness to have an impact. What about just the perception though, when people or countries abroad are looking in and considering the US military force, knowing that all of this is going on.
Well, I would say other countries looking in have got a lot more a longer list of items that they're going to be looking at in terms of the downward trend in their view on the United States. We still have the best military in the world. I think our adversary certainly understand that this is just some tom foolery in the United States Congress. I don't think any enemy is saying, well, I wasn't going to attack last week, but this week, since Tumberville is playing games in Congress, let's go.
This could go on indefinitely. This could go on for another year. In general, we could still be having this conversation around election time. What will it mean for the military by then.
Well, first of all, I'll take that bet. It looks like the United States Senate, on both sides of the aisle are recognizing that this is you know, it's just toddry kind of politics, and so people like Tim Kane it looks like they're stepping up to the plate and try to work their way through.
It as we look to what may still be ongoing by this time next year. There are also ongoing wars we have to consider in Israel with moss Ukraine versus Russia, and obviously in Congress, it's not just a matter of getting members of the military promoted. It's a matter of providing aid and funding, which is a subject of much debate general. If they can't get around to figuring out a compromise on funding quickly, what's the implication.
Well, now you're addressing the real readiness issue. What really has a challenge to do with our operational capability? If we don't have airplanes, or the airplanes that we have are two old to be effective, we don't have enough ships, if we don't have enough weapons systems for our troops. That is going to have a significant effect on readiness.
And that's less about what Senator Tumberville is doing with promotions, more to do with both the House and Senate not providing enough to the procurement accounts and the investment accounts of the United States Military that will make a difference. That will provide an incentive to our adversaries to take
more risk than the otherwise would have taken. If they know the United States military, it's not the premier military in terms of not only troops, not only in terms of training, but if they don't have the tools they need to defeat or deter our enemies, that has a much larger impact than the promotion rate inside the US military general.
We appreciate the insights and thank you for joining us on this Veteran's day. We don't always have the opportunity to say thank you for your service, So be well this weekend, and thanks for joining us on Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the sound On podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern Time at bloomberg dot Com