Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Richie Suna calls it general election for the fourth of July. Welcome to the fastest show in politics with breaking news on both sides of the Atlantic today in the world of politics. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington and Klee it seems the Prime Minister thought earlier was better.
Yeah, we thought that the UK might have an election in the fall.
Not so.
It will happen in July, just about six weeks from now, an announcement that caught many by surprise today on both sides of the pond. And certainly that is the case for our wonderful Bloomberg team, who is standing by, including Lizzie Burden who is outside ten Downing Street right. Wow, as we speak, after just in the last hour we heard from Rishi Sunac himself calling for this election on the fourth of July. Lizzie, why now, Well.
Kaylie, you know, we Brits like to talk about the weather, but you'll have to excuse me. I'm going to have to do it. Richie Sunac came out in one of his expensive suits and it got soaked. I'm sure he could afford another. Why has he chosen July. Well, it's no coincidence that UK inflation was announced as having falled to two point three percent in April today this morning, and Rishi Sunac says that's back to normal, near enough for him to the Bank of England's two percent target.
So he wants to present to the nation that the economy has turned a corner under his watch. But it's not just monetary reasons. It's also fiscal Recent public finance data and warnings from the IMF suggests that any hope of tax cuts in an autumn budget wouldn't really be possible because they might not have the wriggle room. And just finally, political reasons. They want to make immigrants front
and center of this campaign. They might have been able to send a flight to Rwanda with asylum seekers on board by that date. So this election on July the fourth could be a very very different one from the one in twenty nineteen, the last one here in the UK. This won't be about Brexit, It'll be about health, immigration and the economy.
Pretty incredible when you consider the timeline here, Lizzie. We're in the process of covering the longest presidential election the general election in modern American history. How do you compress a campaign into five to six weeks and deliver a message? What will this look like for him?
Well, the whole time, Rishi Sunak's been in number ten Downing Street, He's been campaigning on the economy. His top priority was to harm inflation. By the end of last year, it happened and now inflation is at two point three percent. But really can he take credit for that when it's the Bank of England's job to reduce inflation? Really as we know, But look, Rishie Sunac has also been campaigning on immigration and the NHS. But at the moment things
aren't looking so good on those two factors. In the healthcare for example, look at NHS waiting lists part of the reason for the economic inactivity problem here in the UK, which factors back into inflation. But the poll gap between the ruling Conservatives and the Labor Party just has not been shrinking, so he's not naturally a risk taker. But he's decided to roll the dice and call an election earlier than everybody in Westminster really had expected. Most had thought it would be autumn.
Well, Lizzie, as you mentioned the Labor Party and how in fact they are leading substantially in the polls. It's been fourteen years since they were in power, the Conservatives have been in power since twenty ten. Just how great of a change could this bring to the UK, assuming that the polls are right and Keir Starmer replaces Rishi Sunac.
Well, Keir Starmer made his own speech following Rishi Sunacs and he's keen to emphasize not just the change that he could deliver from Rishi Sunac, but also from his predecessor as the Labor leader, Jeremy Corbyn. He presents that he's made a huge turnaround within the party on anti Semitism, but he also presents that he could provide stability unlike that. We've the instability that we've seen in the Conservative Party. We've had Boris Johnson, Liz Trust and now Rishi Sunac
since the twenty nineteen election. And I have to say I've been to both the party conferences from Labor and the Conservatives over recent years, and over that time business has seen the value in the Labor Party and they have been flocking to pitch what they want to who the polls suggest are going to be government.
Bloomberg's Lizzie Burden outside Number ten downing. Lizzie, thank you so much for joining us with breaking news today. This just emerged in the last couple of hours, Kayley, and pretty remarkable. They're going to be often running already on a five to six week sprint. That will of course be covering right here on Balance of Power, with our other top story today being the new Bloomberg News Morning consult Swing State Pole numbers hit this morning, bringing potentially
good and bad news to Joe Biden. The fact of the matter is Joe Biden Cayley still trails Donald Trump by four percentage points when you look at our numbers from across the seven states that we've identified. But when it comes to the blue Wall, there might be some glimmers of hope. And we don't want to mischaracterize this. If the election we're held today, according to our poll, Donald Trump would win.
Yeah, of course, Joe Biden will very likely need the blue wall if he would like to win. Those are the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In all of those, Biden and Trump are separated by no more than two percentage points. So it is incredibly close. And that's just another thing that speaks to how turnout ultimately is going to be so consequential in this left.
We're going to get to the horse race now with Eli Yoakley with our partners at Morning Console. But also some fascinating revelations here to learn that equal shares of Democrats and Republicans both fear violence around the election, both fear the impact of artificial intelligence, and it's interesting when you consider some of the things we have in common on both sides of the aisle. Eli, thank you for joining us on this poll day. Let's start with the
horse race. Should Joe Biden be smiling looking at these numbers, knowing that Donald Trump has been stuck in a courtroom for the balance of this poll.
I'm not sure that either candidate should be smiling at this point. These are very close contests across the swing state map. Now, the one thing that might make the president smile a bit is the fact that since the winter he has seen his support improve a bit as voters have come off the sidelines. But look, I mean, he's still underwater in most of these states. He's tied in Nevada, He's up by just the hare in Michigan.
But if the election were held today, Joe Biden would be in a really tough spot.
Yeah, he would, of course. To your point, though, Eli, where we are seeing some improvement in certain states, including some improvement in the Sun Belt for Joe Biden, how much can we draw a line to that improvement on Biden's part, or perhaps it is Trump that is falling back rather than Biden moving forward? How much can we attribute to the trial that Joe just mentioned the idea that he has been stuck in a courtroom. Does the poll to give any indication.
I'm not sure the trial has really moved a lot of minds on this contest yet. I think the bigger deal in this race was Super Tuesday and State of the Union Week. I mean, in all of our national tracking, that's when the race started tightening a bit as independent voters in particular started to understand what the voice would actually be in this election. Donald Trump continues to do very very well with his Republican base and folks who
voted for him back in twenty twenty. Joe Biden is continuing to struggle a bit with his voters and small margins here matter a lot. You know we mentioned Nevada. I mean that's a state where the Joe Biden path to victory is pretty clear. I mean it's the state where he is doing best right now with his own Democratic base. That's what the president really needs to rev up, as we had to November. And you know, there's a
lot of issues at play here. I'm not sure how big of a gal Donald Trump's trial is currently until we get a verdict.
Pretty remarkable eli to see half of swing state voters, equal shares of Democrats and Republicans say they fear violence breaking out around this election. It's hard to turn to an analysis piece or a newscast without hearing violence mention tied to the POL conventions coming up, never mind the aftermath of the elections themselves. Are you surprised to see this shared equally on both sides?
Not necessarily. I mean, we've seen Republicans talk a lot about the kinds of protests we saw be it the Black Lives Matter protests in twenty twenty, be if these college campus protests this year. I'm really trying to rev up fears about democratic agitators. And of course, you know, Democrats have something that can point to you back in twenty twenty one when Trump supporters stormed the Capitol. I think recent history in the minds of both sides of
the aisle, for different reasons, help fuel this. That same question asked about election fairness too, By the way, that's something where Democrats are very strong in trust in the system. Republicans are not.
Those numbers.
We're going to watch those moves. Donald Trump's been talking a lot about whether or not he'll accept the twenty twenty four election results, just like he didn't accept them back in twenty twenty. Probably hasn't broken through as much yet, but as we get closer to election day, I mean that continues that these numbers could tick up.
A little bit.
Well, And as we as we look at these numbers six and ten swing state voters worried about misinformation, does that actually potentially suggest though, that voters are very aware of the content in which they're taking political content, Specifically in this election, and whether or not there could have been foreign interference or artificial intelligence things like deep fakes.
That that's not just something that say we in the media are in the political realm are thinking about that, voters are actually quite wary of and privy to.
Yeah, you know, I think that that is almost a bigger concern among Republicans that AI is going to be a problem in the election in terms of the swing state voters. It's one thing to know it exists. It's another thing to see it in your daily lives. And I think we've seen folks have a hard time deciphering all of this, you know. At the same time, a whole media base online that pushes out fake videos all
the time. The average American probably isn't sitting there in fact checking themselves, and so that actually ranks lower on the concerns about AI. By the way, I mean, the biggest concern for voters is privacy. But you know, I think as this campaign plays out, this is something that I think the Democrats are going to lead into talking about quite a bit, just given the foreign actors that
have moved against Democrats in the past. I think I'll be incumbent on President Biden to raise this concern on the voters.
All right, Eli Yoakley, always great to have you on poll day. He is US politics analyst at Morning Consult, which of course is Bloomberg's partner in this poll of the seven key swing states. But we want to dig more into the issue specifically around election security, given the concerns that swing state voters say, according to our polling, they have around this election cycle and turn out of Tina Barton. She is vice chair of the Committee on Safe and Secure Elections and she is joining us in
our Washington, d C studio. Welcome to and bur Television and Radio. Tina, Thank you so much, thank you for coming in. Obviously, as we are in this election cycle, a lot of people are living with the ghost of twenty twenty and everything that has happened in the aftermath. Compared to what we saw four years ago. How safe and secure will elections be this year?
Well, I think one of the things that we're specifically focused on with the Committee for Safe and Secure Elections is the safety and security of election officials. And one of the things that we have seen is even in just the last year that election officials more than ten percent have increased is saying that they have been threatened in the past. So we've gone from twenty eight percent
up to thirty eight percent. So we're seeing this increase of threats towards election officials, and so part of our focus is keeping them safe, but also keeping the process safe.
So with the committee, we're out doing tabletop exercises all across the country, some of those being in some of these swing states where we're holding the tabletops and bringing all of these issues to the table and bringing election officials and law enforcement and saying how would we work through this if this were to happen in your community, in your county or state.
I want to hear more about that. What kind of scenarios are you modeling into the include the monitoring of drop boxes. For instance, we saw a lot of concern in the midterms the last election of masked people, in some cases sitting in trucks, in some cases visibly armed filming people as they drop balance.
So we certainly have a few different scenarios. One of those can be the dropbox scenario. We work usually with the Secretary of the Chief election official of the state or the county to see what are you concerned about happening in your state. So typically some of the things that we're working on now would be things like fentanyl getting an unknown substance in the mail. We've seen that happen and you know, approximately a half a dozen states
and over the last nine months. So we're looking at that. What would that look like for your continuation of operation, What would that look like for chain of command and chain of custody if that were to happen. We're also looking at things like swatting. What happens if the chief election official is swatted and what should they expect to happen.
And we're seeing that happen to election officials across the country, also some of those being in swing states, and we're seeing it on both sides of both parties, that is happening to election officials. We're also looking at disturbances. What if something happens in an actual precinct, what if it happens outside maybe it is armed individuals who are bringing
intimidation to the polling place. Working through those scenarios, hearing exactly what would we do, what type of plan would we put into place, and making sure we are prepared for it if it should happen.
So does do larger amounts of resources now have to go into making sure polling places are secure as they're greater coordination with either local or state authorities, just given the increase in threats that you have spoken to.
Yeah, Recently, the Brandan Center did a survey with election officials and we saw that over ninety percent of them have had to increase their budget and make improvements that are security related, whether that's hardening their facilities or it's securing the process itself. So they're putting lots of effort, lots of money into that. But we're also seeing eighty three percent of them saying we have to have some budget increases over the next five years or our elections
are going to be in trouble. We need better funding.
Is this geographically neutral? Are there states that are more problematic than others when you look at this on a national level, or is this something everyone's dealing.
With, certainly in those swing states there's a lot of passion. Is that there are a lot you know, I mean Michigan obviously has seen it here. I'm from Michigan. We've had, you know, our chief election official, Secretary Benson, who has had individuals at her home. Our governor. I was threatened after the twenty twenty election cycle. We've seen it in Georgia, Arizona, places like that where we are seeing that, but we're seeing this across the country. This is a country wide problem.
When you're seeing that nearly forty percent of election officials, and we have over ten thousand in our country, forty percent is a really high number to say that they've been threatened to harass.
You were threatened because of your work with this organization.
Work as a former election official.
I see in what form were you threatened?
So I actually had a voice that came in after the November twenty twenty election where the individual said that when I least expected it, that he would kill me. And so that individual was actually arrested by the DOJA identified. Yes, he pled guilty in February of this year and will be sentenced in July of this year for threating to stay me in my family. I was the chief election official in Rochester Hills, Michigan.
I'm sorry you had to go through this.
So this is this is personal.
It's personal, absolutely, and I'm sure that there are countless stories like yours that are.
Out there again with nearly forty percent out of over ten thousand election officials saying they've been threatened, harassed, or abused. I am one of that thirty eight percent, but I'm certainly one that is being incredibly vocal to bring attention to the fact that this is happening in our country. Your statistics and your report that you put out that over fifty percent are concerned about violence for the election.
We see that paralleled in the elections community, where we're fifty three percent of election officials are concerned about their safety and the safety of their colleagues.
And obviously a lot of this is threats to physical safety, but I would imagine technology, things like phone calls or deep fakes, or the ability to access other people only makes that threat even more pronounced.
Right, And that's one of the scenarios that we work through. Is you know, in twenty twenty we had the pandemic, and we were responding to all of those things in the political emotion that was rising then, and in twenty twenty four, each election cycle seems to bring something new. We have AI and that's exactly what we're seeing, and
that's one of the scenarios that we work through. If there were to be some sort of a call go out, say from the election administrator, mirroring their voice and sending that out to others, what would that look like for them?
Tina, thank you for being so flexible with your timing today. I'm well we can have this conversation on Bloomberg. It's a very important one. Tina Barton is Vice chair of the Committee on Safe and Secure Elections with us here on Balance of Power on this day that we do learn both Democrats and Republicans share the same fears leading into this election cycle. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines will assemble our panel next on the fastest show in politics, Bloomberg TV and Radio.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and enroud Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
You mentioned the invite Kayley Benjamin Ettnyaho before a joint session of Congress, knowing that he is one of the most controversial figures in the world. Right now and certainly has been making life difficult for Joe Biden. This is how Mike Johnson is going to answer the ICC arrest warrant by inviting him here to the US. Remember Aaron David Miller was talking to us last night about what would happen if they wanted to extradite Benjamin Etya, who while he was outside of Israel.
Yeah, it definitely presents a whole host of questions, not least of which also is how does the Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer deal with this, because theoretically he would need to be on board. But remember it was Chuck Schumer who earlier this year gave a speech on the Senate floor essentially calling for new elections in Israel and the ouster of the very prime minister that we're talking about here that he could then invite to speak to
his chamber in this joint session. It's very politically and geopolitically complicated.
It's hard to tell what's real here with so much messaging happening in the House. But let's see what the panel thinks. Jennie Shanzano is with US Bloomberg Politics contributor, of course, Democratic analyst and now senior Democracy fellow with the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress,
joined by Lester Munson, Republican strategist, principal at BGR Group. Jenny, What's Joe Biden going to do if Benjamin Netanya, who is brought to Washington to address a joint session of Congress, he might not get a meeting at the White House on that trip, right?
Yeah, you know.
I mean Joe Biden did call what the ICC did and the steps they have taken outrageous, so he has been very clear about his views. And of course we are not a signature signatory rather to the ICC, so net and Yahoo would be free to travel here, we'd
be under no obligation to arrest net and Yahoo. That said, it does put Joe Biden, it does put Chuck Schumer in the Democrats in a bit of a political quandary because you do have many members supporting the president with his outrage, but you also have some like Pokan in Wisconsin who have said of net and Yahoo visits, I am going to help the ICC issue this arrest warrant, which is I believe outrageous itself that he would do that,
But it is what we're hearing. So it does divide the Democrats, and it is politically for that reason a moment that Chuck Schumer says he is working his way through.
I think in the end he.
Will go along with the Speaker on this, but it is, you know, a political challenge for Democrats at this point.
Well and for one Democrat in particular, lesser being President Biden. We have been talking a lot about our new poll out today, Bloomberg's Swing State Pole with More Consoled, and question is asked in that poll on Israel. Back in November, we asked about whether Joe Biden was doing the right amount to help help Israel. More people said that in
November than they do now. Increasing numbers say he's either doing too much or too little, which speaks to the idea that potentially for this Democratic administration, there is no real winning on this issue.
Lester, Well, it's a difficult foreign policy issue. There's no doubt Israel and the Palestinians presents an issue that every single American president has struggled with. But it's also an opportunity for President Biden to show leadership, I think, embrace, embracing the Prime Minister if he comes having the meeting in the White House. You can have tough words when the door closes, but showing staunch support for a US ally in a difficult situation is something the American people appreciate.
I think, even if they may have some concerns about the policy, they want to see an American president stand up and take tough positions because it's in the best interest in the United States. And I think in this case, if you're choosing between Israel and Hamas, there's only one uh, there's only one choice the president can actually make, and so this is an opportunity for him if he wants to seize it.
We're wondering, as well as we spend time with our panel today, Janie and Lester, if there's going to be an answer in Congress to the controversy surrounding Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito flying an upside down American flag realizing he said his wife put it there, but out in front of his house in Alexandria, Virginia, following the election
in twenty twenty, representing the Stop the Steel movement. Even some Republicans are criticizing Alito for this genie, and there's been talk potentially of a legislative answer, although Dick Durbin in the Senate, of course Senate Judiciary Committee says Samuel Alito should simply recuse himself.
What do you think?
Yeah, I mean, the way to it would be to do what justices always do, which is they make a personal recusal decision. So I think that's very important. I know there are steps in the Senate and in the House and discussions about censure, and we may see something
like that. But I will tell you just from a political standpoint, I am not clear on why the Biden administration and President Biden, given where he is in the Bloomberg Council poll and in this election overall, doesn't think that now is the time to take bold action as it pertains to the Supreme Court. We have Donald Trump talking about restricting contraception, we have the overturning of Roe v. Wade,
all kinds of concerns about that. Why not go out there and say, you know what, I wasn't sure about packing the court, but now I'm going to because if Donald Trump wins, he will have two more appointments to the Court when Thomas and Alito retire, and that will be a five to four majority, where Donald Trump will have chosen five Supreme Court justices and those just this is we'll sit on that court rather long after he is gone and when your children are growing up and
becoming adults. So now is the time for Joe Biden to take action and show that strength that Lester was just talking about. Not be cautious talk about some kind of Supreme Court reform, whether it's mandatory retirements or whether it is packing the court. You may not get it done like FDR, but at least you tried, and this is an issue that people are concerned about.
Lester, just talk of packing the court though we'resk backfiring. Does that potentially seem extreme to some undecided voters.
Yeah, you know, Genie and I have been in total agreement until now. I think it would be a mistake for the president to do that. The Supreme Courts and the judiciary is a separate, independent branch of government. Just because you get a policy outcome that you don't approve of, doesn't mean one branch of government should go to war
with the other. O. I think the specter of packing the Court is as is worse than any single decision the Supreme Court could come out with the idea that you're going to politically manipulate the structure of the Supreme Court to guarantee certain outcomes goes against the entire purpose of having an independent judiciary. So I think that I
do think that would be a mistake. I think he can he can talk about his position on the issues, and he can talk about if if the Democrats want to pursue this, you know, family planning issues or the abortion issue, entirely fair game. Go make the case they're going to have. They're going to have pretty good reaction, I think among voters. But I think changing the nature of the Supreme Court is going too far.
I think this is fascinating where this conversation has led us here. So what do you think, Genie. Could Joe Biden motivate enough progressives with that move to make up for the many conservatives he would anger.
You know, I'm not convinced he would do any better than FDR and packing the court. I would assume it's not going to work the way it didn't for ft A. But I'm talking about politically to show strength. The Constitution does not set the number of justices on the Supreme Court. It is fluctuated throughout American history. It is up to Congress to set that number. They did so after the Civil War, and they can do so again. The president's job would be to convince a member of Congress to
introduce such legislation and let them go at it. But my view is that politically only, this is the kind of thing that Joe Biden needs to do. Why are we still waiting on executive orders at the border? Why are we waiting for action on the Supreme Court? You are the president. People are frustrated, and you're in poll numbers. Just look at the Bloomberg Morning Council poll. Don't look
so good. You've got to show strength. So from a political standpoint, I think he should, and I think he should push for it and let the chips fall where they may.
All right, Genie Shanzano and Lester Munson our political panel today. Thank you so much. Lester joining us from bgr at the International Group and Genie and Ze No of course is now newly a Senior Democracy Fellow with the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Great conversation, guys, Thank you so much. It's also worth noting we're having this conversation Joe about the Supreme Court on the same day that the Senate today confirmed the two hundred federal judge.
That's right.
Under the Biden administration. It's about a month earlier than when we hit that month mark under Donald Trump. But as we were just discussing, while Biden has gotten to confirm two hundred judges during his tenure, not anyone confirmed to the Supreme Court. Donald Trump got three of those.
Yeah, that's true. Well, I mean you've got Kazanji Brown Jackson. Maybe we'll get another three.
We'll see about that.
I don't know about that.
It's still time. We won't predict anything. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppo car Play and then Roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Welcome to the fastest show in politics, Wednesday edition. It's Balance of Power Life from Washington with an eye on what's happening in Israel and Gaza. We've been talking about the temporary peer that the US military just spent millions of dollars in many weeks to build to try to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza, working our way around in some cases, our ally in Israel, with gates closed in many cases, to get food to where it needs to go in Gaza. Kaylee. The word from the UN World
Food Program today is not good. This three hundred and twenty million dollar project is apparently going to fail unless Israel does a better job ensuring its security, according.
To the UN.
Yeah, the UN coming out yesterday saying that no aid trucks had entered within the last two days via the floating peer set up for sea deliveries. They also said in that same statement that its suspended food distribution in Rafa due to lack of supplies and insecurity. So it speaks to just how dire the situation has becomes. You have so many people on the brink of famine in all actuality, something that of course the Peer was aimed at trying to address, but perhaps not doing so as
successfully as initially hoped. We did hear from Major General Pat Rider, a spokesperson for the Defense Department, about this, and this is what he had to say.
It is a complex operation and so you know, we've been very clear from the beginning that we're going to take a crawl, walk, run approach to make sure that we are implementing this system in a way where we're working out the processes, the procedures, and including taking into account the security conditions. So I think you're going to see as we work together the amount of aid increase and the ability to get it distributed increase.
General Pat Rider yesterday joining us now for more here on balance of power is Carmeil Arbitt joining us from the Atlantic Council where she a senior fellow for the
Middle East programs in the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. Carmeil, always great to have you back on the show when we think about the aid situation specifically and the difficulty of getting aid to those who needed He was speaking there of the security conditions that have to be taken into consideration here given the status on the ground right now, how realistic is it that those conditions can improve to the extent they need to in order to get food ed in at scale.
Yeah, thank you so much for having me back on the challenges of distributing aid to Gaza and throughout the Strip have not gotten easier. To the contrary it's only gotten more complex as the destruction of the strip has worsened. There are really three challenges here that all touch on the security piece, which is logistical, the situation of desperation, which is really also impeding on that distribution, and then
ultimately political. When the US announced that they were going to set up this peer, it was very clear to everyone involved that this was going to be a very expensive and politically meaningful gesture, but that realistically it was going to solve some of the key logistical issues, which is finding safe, secure and functioning roads to transfer that aid across the Gaza Strip and to bring it to the communities that need it most. So that's the first
challenge that they're dealing with. The second is one of desperation. When gozens see these trucks, they often are fearful that it is the only time they're going to have access to that sort of aid, and so they are charging those trucks and grabbing things and engaging in what some are calling self distribution because again they are desperate.
And then the third piece is really political will.
Here we're seeing challenges on the Israeli side as well, where Israeli extremists are looking to stop the flow of aid into Israel, but there is an incentive on the part of the Israeli government to move that aid forward as it works to coordinate support for its Rafak incursion with the United States. So all that is to say, the challenges are formidable and will continue to be, and we might not see that port operational until this war is nearly met.
Well, that's saying something we just heard from Jake Sullivan Carmeil at the White House National Security Advisor to the President, who says aid from the Peer has reached some Palestinian civilians, but the fact is it takes at least a day to process the aid of the peer. There's very limited distribution in some areas of Gaza, certainly in Rafa. Was this a flawed concept to begin with?
Look, this is an impossible situation, given, as I said, the security situation in Gaza, the inability to ensure that anyone who is delivering that aid is going to be safe, destruction on roads, all of these people, all of these other pieces. In many ways, this was mission impossible but also mission necessary. Just because it's difficult to get aid to the people in Gaza, does that mean that anyone
can step away from this imperative. People in Gaza are on the brink of a famine and their situation isn't getting any better.
So it behooves the international community to.
Look for any possible avenue to increase that aid and distribution. But these types of complications and hiccops are going to be inevitable given that there's also no real centralized civil distribution network within Gaza, and this blows open the continual problem and that Israel has no strategy for the day after and what comes next. And so we're seeing that play out in the immediate term, and we're going to continue to say see it play out in the future.
Well, let's keep thinking about what comes next, because in light of what we have seen so far in the last twenty four hours, Ireland, Norway and Spain announcing that they would recognize a Palestinian state and the subsequent is really recalling its ambassadors to those countries not reacting well
to this. I wonder, Carmel if a number of sovereign countries saying that they would recognize a Palestinian state actually makes it less likely that that Palestinian state can be realized in the near term because it only cast Is those currently in power to Israel to kind of retrench and circle the wagons and invoice opposition to the idea of a two state solution.
That's exactly right, the declaration of Palestinian statehood by countries, which, mind you, more than one hundred countries I think about one hundred and forty have already done that. But doing that in this moment and generally is deeply alienating for the Israelis who feel that the Palestinians can't just be given this statehood recognition.
Statehood must come.
Through a negotiated, durable, two state solution, an agreement that both parties have come to. And the problem is that statehood is really just words. There aren't very serious practical implications for this, and so it doesn't move the parties closer together, it just divides them further.
Where's the administration now on operations in RAFA? Because our reporting says that the administration is softening a stand on this. I believe it was a red line for President Biden said that on the record a couple of weeks ago. Is that red line moving?
So I think the.
Question is whether the red line is moving or the Israelis are moving, and the answer is somewhere in between the two. The Israelis have taken very seriously what the United States has been saying, and there's been sort of a difference between what they're saying publicly and what they're saying behind closed doors. So publicly, Biden had put forward what was increasingly sounding like a generic red line any type of incursion into Raffa was unacceptable, But privately that's
not really what these conversations have looked like. What they've really been saying is that any incursion into Raffa has to look a certain way.
There has to be serious and.
Meaningful efforts to evacuate civilians, there has to be a cathway. The type of operation that's carried out matters a lot. And what we're seeing and hearing is that what the Israelis are intending to do and have already begun doing, is relatively narrow in that what they're really focusing on is tunnels and transit routes in Rafa rather than kind of a larger scale piece, and that will allow them to contain civilian casualties, and in many ways already had.
So we're finding a convergence in terms of what the Israeli and American position had been around Rafa Carmeil.
Of course, while the administration the US administration's position has long been that they wouldn't like to see a major ground operation in Rafa that could cause massive civilian casualties, they also have it been loudly, repeatedly calling for a temporary ceasefire deal in sending diplomats to the Middle East to try and further that effort. It feels like, though now for all of the hope that maybe existed weeks ago, it's long gone. Is there any real prospect of a temporary ceasefire deal now?
I think the parties are going to continue to negotiate. The Israelis had hoped that the thread of a RAFAF operation and what it could look like would strengthen their hands at the negotiating table, and felt that the US had taken that away from them, essentially by hamstringing the extent of what Rafa could be. Because of that, the Egyptians had really withdrawn their role from this. Egypt had been,
of course, also trying to prevent a RAFAS operation. But what you see is the cutter is continuing to move ahead. We're also hearing conversations shift where we're not just looking out a temporary ceasefire as this war starts to again kind.
Of wind down. Remember that there are only.
Four brigades of Hamas that are still excuse me, battalions that are still operating in Rafas, and that's what Israel has been really interested in. But starting to think now more and more about what a long term out could look like. And so you have Cutter still at the talk of temporary ceasefire talks, but also partnering up with the Saudis Is the US and the Saudis and negotiate and a potential long term negotiation under for normalization, and that could also include an end to the conflict.
Carmel, your insights are always so helpfully. Appreciate your time today, Carmel, arbit throws of uncertainty over the effectiveness of this peer. We'll see what happens with US operations as we move our way forward, and analysis from Carmel at the Atlantic Council always helps us out from ver, thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify.
Or wherever.
You get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com