Sound On: UK Royal Future, Ukraine Counter-Offensive - podcast episode cover

Sound On: UK Royal Future, Ukraine Counter-Offensive

Sep 09, 202243 min
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Joe's guests today: Winchester University Royal expert Ellie Woodacre, Emmy-winning Documentarian and Journalist Anthony Geffen, the producer of "The Coronation" Documentary, which was Queen Elizabeth's only television interview, Bloomberg National Security team leader, Nick Wadhams and Bloomberg Politics Contributors Rick Davis and Jeanne Sheehan Zaino. 

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Speaker 1

Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg sound On. As the Queen herself did with such unswerving devotion, I too now solemnly pledged myself to uphold the constitutional principles at the heart of our nations. Like I think, he's got a huge challenge of hate things He's writed a long time. Bloomberg sound On Politics, policy and perspective from DC's top names. The war in Ukraine is entering a critical face. So far Russian strategic objectives have been defeated.

Bloomberg sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio, Charles the Third delivers his first speech as King. Welcome to the fastest hour in politics on another historic day in the UK with its new monarch, addressing the path forward even as he mourns the loss of his mother. Will be joined this hour by Ellie Woodacre, royal expert from Winchester University, along with Emmy Award winning documentary and Anthony Geffen,

who conducted Queen Elizabeth's only televised interview. Later this hour, the Ukrainian counter offensive takes hold, surprising many with its speed. These past couple of days. Will get an update from Washington and a conversation with Bloomberg national security expert Nick wadhams Our signature panel is back together. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanie Chanzano are with us for the hour as Bloomberg Radio brings you the first draft of

history on another historic day in London. Sound from a ninety six gun salute at the Tower of London this morning for the passing of the ninety six year old Queen. As the UK proceeds with ten days of mourning and condolence has continued to stream in from around the world, including here in Washington. The President Biden now confirms he will attend Queen Elizabeth's funeral, though details on who will

join him remain unknown. As our details about the same m King Charles the Third smoke in a televised address to Britain and the Commonwealth. As the Queen herself did with such unswerving devotion, I too now solemnly pledged myself throughout the remaining time God grants me to uphold the constitutional principles at the heart of our nation. A somber speech, as you heard live on Bloomberg Radio, is recorded in the Blue drawing room at Buckingham Palace. The new King

addressed his own family, with Catherine beside him. Our new Prince and Princess of Wales, will I know, continue to inspire and lead our national conversations, helping to bring the marginal to the center ground where vital help can be given. I want also to express my love for Harry and Megan as they continue to build their lives overseas. The King later held a private audience with the UK's new Prime Minister, Liz Trusts, as part of his first full

day as king. That's where we start in a conversation with Ellie Wouldacre, Winchester University, Royal expert. Ellie, thank you for joining us and I know it's late where you are, so we appreciate your time here. Um, I wonder your thoughts, just to start off with. On this address, he looked like he had had an emotional couple of days, as anyone would hours after losing their own mother. But we also saw him outdoors today shaking hands with people on

that rope. Line's pretty dramatic video to see before he delivered this speech. How did he do? I think he's gotten off to a very good start. Obviously again it is it is a huge personal shock to him. I'm obviously we all knew that the Queen was in increasingly poor health with her mobility issues and obvious so he would have been prepared for this day, you know, for

many decades. But yet the personal kind of told that it must take on him as a son, losing his mother as well as having to step into this incredibly important role of becoming king all at once. It is it is a major kind of shift in his own life and in the life of Britain as well. It seems most of the narrative has been around his personality.

Now how you know, he's he's going to have to go from being a kind of a quiet onlooker to someone who is more engaged and is speaking more and spending more time in public as he prepared for that absolutely, and I think Prince Charles has always been a very public figure, but I do think we will see a shift and a change in him, and that while he was Prince of Wales, he was more outspoken about causes

that were dear to him. He was more again able to kind of play to his own personal interests as well, um in a way that he will now need to step back from and he was very honest about that in his speech about kind of taking on this new role that the sovereign kind of stands apart and and and occupies this very particular position as head of state. So it's almost like Charles the individual is having to kind of be set aside to become King Charles. Can

you articulate the challenges he's facing? And I don't know if I should call them political challenges, because of course he's not going to be governing this nation, but he's coming into power at at a precarious time with Brexit, with a brand new prime minister. Of course, I mean, you're absolutely right, and that his role as the kind of constitutional monarch means that he's not directly responsible for setting policy and for ruling. And yet it is a

difficult time for the nation. It's a difficult time for the world. I think we've all felt like we're living through kind of historic times with all of the challenges of the last few years politically, with the pandemic, um with everything going on with the war in the Ukraine, climate change, I mean, the list of you know, issues is huge, and certainly for the new prime ministers. Trust she will be dealing with those. But it is Charles's role to try to kind of study the ship of

state and in these times. And I think obviously his own mother came to the throne in the post war period when Britain was very much kind of rebuilding, and she herself saw written through years of political turbulence, economic turbulence, and yet you know, again her role was to provide continuity in all of that. So I think Charles will

seek to do the same. But this is why a lot of Americans, you know, use the term figurehead, because I think we all have a hard time understanding what it is the king or queen is supposed to do. Absolutely well, his role is to be head of state,

and yes it is a largely ceremonial role. I mean, constitutional monarchy has developed, you know, since the kind of glorious revolution back in the seventeenth century to the present day, and that has led to the fact that there's a strange situation where in theory there is a great deal of power that the royals still have in terms of prerogative, but in practice what that means is that that the royals do not exercise that the sovereign does not exercise

that prerogative, and so their job is to be a political and to be merely, as you said, more of a figurehead as his head of state. Elly, what do you make of the nod and the language that he chose to reach out to Harry and Megan towards the end of the address and wish them luck. I think he said in building their lives overseas? Is that was Was that the right thing to say at this time? Did it sound like a kiss off to you? How

would you describe it? No? I think it was. It was very significant that he included them, and I think it is important that I think the monarchy is moving into this more slimmed down format if you like, that focuses on the direct line of succession, of which you know, Harry and Megan are part. I mean, Harry is now the son of the sovereign and that that does put

him in a very significant position. So I think he was being inclusive, if you like, and trying to kind of show his immediate family as being the kind of the key center of the royal family and including Harry Meger. So that was reaching out in a in a genuine way in your opinion, I think so. I think so again. Obviously, you know, much of that kind of discussion around his family was talking about William taking on the role of Prince of Wales and Catherine his wife as Princess of Wales.

But the fact that again he did mention Harry and Megan, I think made it that he wanted it to not just be about William, you know, you moving up the rank if you like, in terms of the succession that he was including and mentioning them and again supporting their choice to to build a different life for themselves. Ellie, thank you so much for spending some time with a. Sally Woodacre is Winchester University's royal expert, and helping us understand some of the next steps and challenges for the

new King. Charles. I'm not used to saying it yet, but I will get there. As we add another voice to the conversation, Anthony Geffen looking forward to this Emmy winning documentary and produced The Horror Nation. Remember this documentary, It was Queen Elizabeth's only television interview a few years back. He's CEO and Creative director of Atlantic Productions and joins us now on Bloomberg sound on Anthony. Welcome, great say, very nice to be talking to you. Well, I look

forward to your reflections on the Queen. But first I wonder how did you feel seeing King Charles speak today. I think, you know, I think it's really hard because in a way, the queen, you know, the Queen is just died, and you know, but the British monarchy has a system of outgoes one and incomes another, so you know, we've got a new era. Um. I think he's a he's a fine guy. He's he's waited a long time too to get the job, and I think he's going to do a good job, you know, once he gets going.

Many of us in America, including me, by the way, have been struck by the level of emotion that people are showing in the UK. And I wonder how that emotion plays out for her son, the new king. Oh, I think usually. I mean they've always had a very close relationship. Um And I think you know, he's he's like anyone with a mother at that age, you know, you have you have a very close but he had a particularly close bond with her beyond other members of

the family. Does that create a level of empathy though with the people they're they're all obviously they're mourning his mother as he does the same. And that image of him outside shaking hands with people on the rope line today was really striking, very powerful, and you know, he's a he's a very interesting man or enduring man, and I think people don't really know him. He's been sitting in the shadows and he's now going to come out

of the shadows. And I think he's been preparing and thinking about the role, but much longer than any English monarch in a thousand years of history, and so I think, you know, I think he's going to do a good job. It's very hard though for him over the next period really because you know, people people are going to take a long time to let the queen go. You know, I think they'll they'll turn you into a memory. But

in the moment it's dairy um. I mean walking around Britain today, everyone from young and old, you know, are very very emotional about it. It's it's really interesting and not surprising. Did you get to know him well when you were making the coronation? Yeah, yeah, I've met him on several other occasions and again, I mean very impressed by by him, and I think he's again he's had to play everything very low key, because you know, in some ways he he's spent high key in terms of

his views about plants and buildings. But but actually he's held back for a while. And the older the Queen got, the more he wanted to hold back. He didn't want to be seen in any way to be to be reigning on her parade. So how did you ever get the Queen to do her only ever sit down interview like this? Well? It was extraordinary. Really. I was a

colleague of Minchael Ellis the Bruce. We decided twenty years before we got there in two thousand seventeen, that we should really make this this film with the Queen, and the Queen was very open to discussions, but she wasn't open to making a film about the coronation flash forwards many many years later. And it's kind of interesting that.

I think The Crown had quite an impact if you think about it, because in The Crown you have Claire Foy playing the Queen the Coronation, Yes, and I think that the Queen always said to me she'd never watched it, but I think she heard the influence, and I think finally managed to get across that actually the real story

had to be done. No monarch had ever talked about the coronation in a thousand years, and it was very personal to her, and this was an extraordinary occasion that you know, the world watched, but actually, you know, we didn't really know what she was thinking. And I think once we persuaded the powers that be and then the Queen that this was her opportunity to talk about something a she'd never talked about, being no one had ever talked about, and was very personal to her, that was

very special, but it was a very hard thing to do. Now. What's interesting is the New York Time called it the program you know, the Queen unscripted, and that's correct. He didn't go in with any scripts that she does normally. Suede to her too. We got footage, for example, of

the coronation. Do you know what, she'd never seen the coronation, never seen the footage of the coronation ever, so to be showing her that she actually not very emotional, and it took her back to being, you know, twenty seven years old, and she told us wonderful stories about you know how uncomfortable the carriage was or other person. No one ever as ever understood why the Queen came to a complete hold going up Westminster Abbey, and she told us her foot got stuck in the in a rug. Suddenly,

you know something is very personal, very very personal. Stories came out and uh, we were Another extraordinary thing is no monet has ever really seen the sin Edward's crown twice, but the Queen knew that she could call this favor, and she called the favorite. So we we got her from the Tower of London, which is unprecedented. This this amazing crown, and she hadn't seen it was like an old friend and she picked it up and there's very funny moments. Actually was only three people who can touch

the crown. One is the crown jeweler, one is the Archbishop of country, one of the Queen. And I said to the crown jew could you move the crown? And she just picked it up and said, I am the Queen. The candor that we saw from the Queen was quite remarkable. She spoke about actually wearing that crown, which was remarkable. Let's listen for a while. Fortunately, my father and I have about the same sort of shaped head. But once you put it on, it stays. I mean, it just

remains itself. You have to keep your head very still, yes, and you can't look down to read the speech. You have to take the speech up because if you did, your neck would break. Who did it fall off? So there are some disadvantages to crowns, but otherwise they're quite important things. They're quite important things. Anthony is just a reminder that she had a great sense of humor, which we saw on a number of visits here in the US. No, she did another wonderful story where we were talking to her.

She didn't know the story of where the crown jewels went during the war, and we found out through secret documents that they were buried under part of the west of the Windsor at Windsor Castle, and she we told her the story and its extraordinary. Basically shoved them in a hole, and the most valuable bits of a grund Jules they put in a bar fall of a biscuit tin to the Queen turned back to me and said, what would have happened if the man who who had

done that had died or disappeared? We never would have known where the cold jewels were, and she was way ahead of the She had a berry dry censers humor. She was way ahead of the courtiers who couldn't quite keep up. And you know, that's the queen. She she she just had this wonderful, wonderful sharp sense of humor and and and it's she used it many many times

throughout her reign. But we were really lucky. I think the period of filming this, a lot of people in the courtiers I spoke to said, she's never been this open, she'd never been this relax and it was because she was reliving that moment. Now. I then found out white to the twenty years it's because her father had just died.

She was twenty seven years old. She didn't want to do the transmission of the coronation particularly, and so when it was finished, she literally got everything metaphorically and put it in the cupboard. And here I was coming along and saying, can you now tell us about the coronation. But once she's amazing. Once she got over that, my god, she wanted everything. She said, you know, what dress do you want me to wear? And what you know? Which

which diamond should I mean, it was amazing. She just threw herself into it, and she was constantly great fun and off off camera she was so sharp on politics. I mean I was just chatting to her about things. She was she was incredibly articulate. What would you think? What would she think of the elaborate nature of this farewell,

this funeral that's now being planned. WHOA, that's difficult. I mean the Queen, you know, really liked pageantry, and I think, you know, people talk to her, I'm sure about what was going to happen, but she was very modest too, so I mean, sometimes we want to be talking about things and she need to let clear everything down. But I actually think she you know, she would actually probably and I think she was consulted. I'm sure she accepted

that this needed to happen. I mean, you know, she's the greatest monarchs that we've had, and in a modern era where everybody split on ideas, that's pretty extraordinary. But I was so lucky to spend the time with her where she literally said, you know, I'm going to be totally open with you. The courts were not allowed to edit the questions and she actually had a good time. You know. It's quite interesting. When the film was finished.

She was pleased with it, but she wanted to see how her courtures are or various people at Fannery and ports that she she asked him to watch it, and she was quite nervous apparently, Wait and they all came and they said, you're brilliant. And now that meant a lot to her because I didn't do many programs, So she was thrilled that she was good in the program.

Fascinating conversation with Anthony Geff and I appreciate your joining us today, Anthony, and our condolences go out to you from Washington, d C. Great well, not at all, very nice speaking to you. It's a smbole our panel for their take on everything we just heard. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanie Schanzino are here. Rick, we talked yesterday about preparing for the speech and how to strike the right tone and what was really not a political speech.

How did the King perform in this I guess very delicate address. Yeah, I think it was very straightforward, very formal. Uh And and I think we tend to diminish the fact that he's been in public life since the day he was born. I mean not like, you know, professionally getting involved in politics and the United States or something, and you know, being in office for a long time. But since the day he was born, he was heir

to the throne. And so everything he's done, every education, every class, every relationship that he's had has been in the context of someday you'll be king. And so I think that the he's been well trained for this moment. This was sort of what all of this was building up for. And the fact that it took over seventy years to get here is a tribute to his patients and drink that, uh. And I think he did he did just fine. And I loved the fact that he um uh sort of talked about that his boys as

a father would not as a king. What did you make of that, you know, reaching out to after all the controversy, Uh, Genie reaching out to Harry and Megan the way he did today? It was did he did he pick the right words to do that? Did it feel legitimate? Yeah? I think it did. I think he

did a very good job today. And of course their children are have titles now that their grandfather is king um, and of course it's very important as both a father and a father figure of a country that he displayed that publicly, and I thought he did a good job. I think the interesting part of this, of course, is one of the things that Queen Elizabeth did so beautifully was she became this symbol that was above politics, above

the phrase. So whether you were left, right or center, you could have this love of and belief in the Queen. And you know, that's going to be something that we're going to see King Charles now have to live up to, and it's going to be a little bit tougher, I think for him, because he is somebody who has been a little bit more explicit about his political views, not necessarily left and right, but on traditionalism and other things.

And that's going to be something to watch because it's been that symbolic about the free aspect that is, you know, revived the monarchy while the British Empire was collapsing around her, and for him to sustain that is going to be something He's going to have to walk a fine line doing what did you think today, Rick, seeing him outdoors shaking hands on the rope line us, you know, just really interacting with people and what appeared to be a

very genuine exchange. He seemed to really enjoy it. Could he actually help to redefine what it is to be the monarch in England and be you know, more outward, more public. Well, it's always been a challenge for the British monarchy to modernize, right, and we've watched it painfully in full view. Right. The difficulty that they've had an important moments to understand, you know, how to deal with the masses. And I don't say that in a derogatory way,

but you know, it is what it is. And and so for the really the first time the public has spent any time with the new king for him to be really with a very light security detail on a rope line, you know, interacting people. At one point he pushed his security away. Yeah, honestly I was watching some of it and I get the guy out from in front of the camera. Bad advance work. Where's the king

get out of the way? Um? And uh? And And the reality is that I think this is his instincts, right, he is sort of the new CEO of the firm, right, we got used to this is almost like a corporation. And and the reality is I think he's got a moment where he can bridge two generations, you know, the World War two generation that his mother's from. And the

reality is he will not govern long. He's seventy three years old, and his term as king will probably end, uh, you know before the change in the decades, uh, you know, come near and and there will be a brand new, younger generation of of of of monarchs coming in from behind him. And he's got to be that transition. And I think so far he's handling that transition very well. You know, it really is worth reminding ourselves, Genie that he's mourning his his own mother. This was just twenty

four hours ago. And to be thrust, I mean, this is part of the deal, immediate ascension. You're thrust into the public eye at once. I wonder if he allows us to see more of that emotion along the way. And I think that's going to be a big question

how he handles all of this. To your point, as a human being, you just look at you know, to have to go through the death of a parent so publicly and assume this sort of great position at the same time, of course, his mother went through the same thing as a very young woman in Kenya, and so he has a lot of you know, lessons there. As Rick pointed out, he's been training for this his entire life. But I think a lot of this has less to do necessarily with him, and certainly he has the ability

to handle this. I think a lot of it also has to do with how people in Great Britain, across Great Britain, across the Commonwealth quite frankly, respond to this. We can't recall it's not just that long ago that Barbados officially removed Queen Elizabeth as the head of state. We've had votes in Australia, there's questions about the continuation of the Commonwealth. She made this something you wanted to

join versus being forced to join. So he's going to have a job ahead of him to keep this intact and that is going to be something that he was in Barbados for that. That's going to be something he's trained for. He knows how to do it, but it is a big challenge for any figure, and particularly someone who doesn't have the political power that's you know, more than opaque candling it there to do it with great

insights on what lies ahead for a new king. Jennie Chanzano and Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics Contributors, our signature panel on the Fastest Hour in Politics. Coming up, we turned to Ukraine. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. Thanks for joining us on Bloomberg Sound On. There is a convincing chorus that's growing louder surrounding the counter offensive in Ukraine.

As I read on the terminal, Ukrainian officials and Russian military bloggers alike are describing a counter offensive in the north that has surprised in its speed, the first time since the war began that Ukrainian forces have been able to push past Russian defenses on a more than tactical level. It's taking hold, and we're hearing from the State Department, the Pentagon and NATO Secretary General Yain Stoltenberg. The war

in Ukraine is entering a critical face. Ukrainian forces have been able to stall Moscow's offensive and dombus It's strike back behind the Russian Alliance and retake territory. Just in the last few days, we have seen further progress both in the south in catson On, in the east in the clod Cave In region. He held a news conference

today with Secretary of State Anthony Lincoln. It's focused in the south around her Son in that area, but we're also seeing Ukraine not only hold the line in the Dondas and in the northeast, but as you noted, make a significant advance, moving some in one area past what had been the existing Russian line. I think it's too

early to say exactly where this will go. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Millie, spoke to this yesterdays have achieved minor tactical success in various parts of eastern Ukraine, but so far Russian strategic objectives have been defeated, have been defeated. Now six months plus a couple of weeks and I know we're headed for a tough winter, That's what all the analysis has told us. But this appears to be a good moment for Ukraine.

Let's bring in Bloomberg National Security Team leader Nick Wadham's for a little more on this. Nick the the Secretary General of NATO here against Altenburg, calling this a critical phase. What happens in the next couple of weeks for us to get a sense of whether this is working well. We're gonna see very quickly whether this counter offensive stalls. President Zelinsky and his nightly address UH this evening in Ukraine said that Ukrainian forces had taken another thirty settlements

in here. Seeing obviously, as you mentioned, the commentary from Russian boggers as well, gives you a sense that maybe this might be real. The CIA director William Burns was at a conference yesterday which he said that he believed Russi his campaign had been and would turn out to be a failure. And so you know, you've seen a lot of support for the Ukrainians. Secretary Lincoln was in Kiev and and crucially offered another two billion dollars in

support for Ukraine. So you're starting to see the US really amp up again. It's military and economic support. I'm glad you mentioned that it's two point eight billion dollars, and not only for Ukraine, it's for our Eastern European allies as well, essentially fortifying that entire region. Nick, what does that tell you about our objectives? Well, I think what you're seeing is a real effort to deter Vladimir Putin from doing anything further beyond Ukraine, but also it's

a push to get other nations to step up. The US of wants to see more money contributed by the UK, France, all sorts of other nations that it says, you know, are talking to talk on Ukraine, but they'd also like to see them contribute more. Mike, would it be worth a surge if I can use that term of weapons or cash or something that we can do right now to help tip the balance further in Ukraine's favor? Or is this really up to Ukraine at this point? Well,

I mean that's what they say they're doing. There was a U. S Military official on a call today who said they were thinking of supplying Gray Eagle arm drones, so stepping it up a notch in terms of military hardware. And they're doing another six and seventy five million doll draw down on US inventories. That's going to include you know,

precision guided artillery shells and all sorts of weaponry. So what you're seeing from the US as a real push to amp up the military support beyond weapons that they had previously conceived. It does beg the question which I know a lot of lawmakers in Washington have been asking, why, why wait till now? Could we have given all this stuff in the outset maybe shortened this war. Well, I mean,

it is a good question. And and you know a lot of folks on the hill who had pressured for that early on or I'm saying that, you know, I'm saying exactly the same thing. But you know, this was something that I don't think you know, even though the US was warning this was going to come and cut a lot of people off Dard and you know, there was a certain element of needing to ramp things up that just took some time to the admistry. Is is

the big conversation dead at this point. They've been asking for more fighter jets to so called close the sky since this war has been underway. Is President Zelenski any closer to getting more jets? Not? Not anytime soon. I mean, the US does not want to have a situation where it's pilots or pilots in in aircraft supplied by the US or even NATO allies are in a direct confrontation with Russians because the fear that there would be a wire spread to the war. Even if we gave him

Russian made MiGs, though that doesn't change. It's more about where they came from. Who, who gassed them up and who flew them? Is that your point? That's that's right, I mean, because they would have to come from NATO allies. So then Russia could plausibly claim that they were in a war with NATO, and then who knows She's sad? The nuclear plant is worth asking about here, Nick. We know that this has become more precarious with time. We understand from the head of the i a e A

that shelling has increased, presumably from Russia. How is this getting worse when we have inspectors inside. Well, that plant has now been taken almost entirely offline, so it's no longer providing nuclear power. The i e A was leaving a few people there as monitors and in hopes that their presence who had essentially helped stop the shelling, But so far there's no sign of that, So that just continues to be aspiring problem, one of many that we're

keeping our eyes out at this stage. Incredibly dangerous situation. Nick, Thank you as always, Nick Wadham's Bloomberg National Security team leader. You can read a lot more on the terminal here about not only the precarious situation surrounding the plant, but this breakthrough in the north, which is quite remarkable to see this actually taking place. It began just a couple of days ago southeast of Kharkiv, and it is taking hold.

The Ukrainian four spearheaded by fifteen tanks, moving and overwhelming eight villages in less than a day, according to Bloomberg News reporting. We're gonna add the panel to this, bringing Rick and Jeanie coming up next year on the fastest hour in Politics, check traffic and markets for you on the way, and a little bit later on here President Biden's dream that he told us about last night. It's all ahead. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. This is Bloomberg.

You're listening to Bloomberg. You sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. As Ukraine pushes back on Russia, the word from the Secretary General at NATO, Yen Stoltenberg is pretty straightforward. They have no other choice. If Russia stops fighting, they will be peace. If Ukraine stops, I think it will cease to exist as an independent nation. So we

must stay the course for Ukraine's sake. On for hours to reassemble the panel now, Rick Davis and Jennie Schanzano, Bloomberg Politics Contributors, Genie, that's a pretty stark message from the Secretary General. If we stop moving, we die, essentially, is what he's saying. That's right, And you know, I think reflecting back on what you were just discussing, I mean, who would imagine six months ago that Ukraine would be

making the strides it has. But he's exactly right. If they stopped fighting, that would be the end of the nation. So they will fight, and this is the miscalculation that Vladimir Putin has made. I think the real question here. You know, we know that Ukraine's ability to make these gains has come because of the support it's it's received.

Does Vladimir Putin do something to try to disrupt particularly Western europe support by way of grain or energy for the war, or does he do some thing that that Vladimir's Lensky said the other day, some kind of nuclear escalation. I think those two things are the real threat at this point, that he realizes how frustrated he is and that he's not gaining and he does something that, you know, to escalate this even further. And that's a really, really

scary proposition. Meantime, Rick Davis, officials in Kiev, including President Zelenski himself, are really trying to show the US and allies that they can win this thing to keep the pipeline open. Yeah, it was one thing to stop the Russians,

it's another thing to push them back. And I think this initiative that is underway right now, that's been going on for the better part of a month UH is demonstrating that the Ukraine military has the capacity and the will to fight the Russians on their own terms and regain territory. And both as you were describing earlier, in the South and the East. UM, tactically they seem to

be incredibly good position. They've been taking up ground with the with the resources have and so there is some optimism with the notion that we aren't stuck in a status quote anti position where the Russians hold the territory they've got they quote liberated and manage it like they did, you know, when they took over Crimea in two thousand fourteen.

This is an active war and and there's ground being taken up now by the Ukrainians and there's no reason to believe they can't continue this assault with the support from NATO and in our country. You heard Nick Wodhams mentioned that, uh, we you know, we're sending another draw down of weapons here, including the Great Eagle drone. Are are are the weapons were sending rick up to the

fight that Ukraine is in right now? Well, the weapons we're sending to Ukraine, from what we can tell now, are far superior than the weapons that the Russians have on the field today, which they're buying back from North Korea. Well, I mean, you know, and one of the things that we're learning is that they lacked the resources to replace them. You know, the microchips and things like that that we're finding and used equipment empowered by the Russians is second

or third level kind of material. And of course we're putting in as you describe, the Gray Eagle, which is the predecessor of the the Predator drone. I love these words and names. You know, Air Force Reaper was one of the other sort of drones that they've been used, and these are very advanced first world UH equipment, and the fact that that is something that the Ukrainians can deploy gives them actually a tactical advantage in the field.

And I think this is part of what we're seeing in modern warfare, is the Russians are fighting a World War two style campaign in the Ukraine, and I think the Ukrainians of leap frog dat and are actually fighting in a real world environment. It is quite something you need to learn that the Russians are buying back Soviet made equipment, military equipment from North Korea. This is like the worst off on the market, right, but that's pretty

much all they can get at the moment. That's right, Armament, resupplies, artillery shells, missiles, and you know, just a few weeks back we heard that they were waiting or hoping essentially that they were going to be getting Iranian made drones and that's what they were banking on. So you know, clearly they need supplies, they need ammunition, and they're not

getting it from the best sources. And this is where Vladimir's a Lensky's campaign I think early on has played out so beautifully to get the support of the world, particularly the Western world and NATO, and boy, you can see that paying dividends at this point. Genie and Rick our signature panel here on Bloomberg Sound On in our

remaining moments, we turned to domestic politics. Just a day after President Biden left the bubble, left the White House and went down to National Harbor, not far from the beautifully lit well. What is it not a merry go around ferris wheel? That's right. You wouldn't be leave it if you saw it down there. This neighborhood didn't exist a couple of years ago, but they held a big fundraiser down there for the d n C. And he talked about a dream that he had for the future.

Imagine if we just elected two more Democrats the Senate, keep the House of Representatives. Imagine, we'll codify rov Wade, we'll bandisol, weapons, will protect so security, Medicare, will pass universal pre k, well, restarting the childcare tax credit. We'll protect voting. Right, did you get all that? That's the list.

If President Biden sees a Democratic majority on Capitol Hill, which no one is predicting as I read now, seventy two House Democrats say they are willing to force a government shutdown if Democratic leaders move ahead with a plan to to put Joe Manchin's energy permitting bill along with this stop gap spending measure that keeps the government funding because of course, we don't do budgets around here anymore. Rick, what's your take on this here? You know, it's been

a really good stretch for Joe Biden and Democrats. Are we about to get into an argument of shouldn't shut down the government? Well, I would ask the Democrats, those seventy two House members, how do you like that Inflation Reduction Act? Because that came at a cost, and that cost, you know, explicitly a deal was made between Mansion and Schumer to give Mansion basically control of energy permitting process.

It's it was a transaction. It's bought and paid for, and whether you like it or not, that's how you got the one thing that you want to take to the mid term elections, the inflation Reduction Acts. So um, you know, music to the Republicans ears that they want to have a fight over this after the fact, but the reality is, whether you like it or not, that deal is done. So what are we talking about here, Genie?

We know based on history that the party in power tends to get the blame for the government shutting down. We're gonna do that right before the mid term elections. Seventy two House Democrats think that's a good idea. Yeah, it's not a good idea to shut down the government, and so they need to bear that in mind. But this is a real controversy. I mean, we heard Bernie Sanders on the floor yesterday and he was slamming this

as a disastrous side deal. And we are hearing a lot and that's where you get to these seventy two and I suspect there may be a few more, a lot of even some you wouldn't describe as far left Democrats who are saying that this deal that was struck is absolutely going to destroy that environment in West Virginia.

And so this is where we come down to. I think they've got to be very careful because, of course, by the same token, they can't fulfill Joe Biden's dream of taking anything unless Purple Democrats, Democrats and purple states are able to win, and they won't be able to do that with a government shutdown. The permitting legislation apparently could speed up approval of the of the multi billion

dollar Mountain Valley gas pipe plane as it's called. It crosses guess what West Virginia rick how much of it? This is about that where it looks like Joe Manchion is enriching himself where I guess companies in his own state versus just the width of carbon Well, I think I think it's a little both, right. I mean, Joe Mansion wants more fossil fuels. That's just a fact. He happens to be a Democrat, right, I mean, it's a little odd to here are Democrats talking like this, But

he's a West Virginia Democrat. It's cold country, it's oil country, it's gas country, you know, fracking, And so it is who he is and and in in his job is to represent West Virginia. And West Virginia is not a state that's gonna have a lot of solar it's not a state that's gonna have a lot of wind energy. I mean. And so they are who they are, and whether the Democrats like it or not, in a Senate they have to cut deals with guys like Joe Mansion. They've been doing it for the last two years and

to great effect. How many people have been touting the fact that there have been all these fantastic legislative achievements by Biden, and there's one person who's personally responsible for most of those in the Senate, and that's Joe Manchin. So I mean, when I look at the grand total of the trillions of dollars that have been funneled to the American people, whether it's through the infrastructure, a COVID or Inflation Reduction Act, and you've got him with his

finger on the you know, hydrocarbons. Look, I'm against it. I don't think we should be having more oil and gas. But the reality is, look what the trade is. I mean, really, you're actually going to stop the function of the federal

government because of this. I mean, it's nonsense. Well, and it's likely just a threat here, genie, But when you listen to the laundry list that the President rolled out last night, caught a fine Roe v. Wade, banning assault weapons and so forth, does any of that see the light of day in a split Congress? No, I mean, I mean, you know, at this point, it looks like

at the very least, Republicans take the House. And so you know, if makes all of this move right, it makes all of this move And let's not forget California is facing record breaking heat wave right now. Um, climate activists have a real and a fundamental and a fair point to make on this. But a lot of what we've talked today, whether it's Europe the United States, has to do with the challenge of energy moving to clean energy.

How do you do it? These are real conversations to be had, but shutting down the government is not the way to proceed there, Genie, thank you. And Rick Davis as well are Bloomberg Politics contributors and our signature panel here on sound on what a week I mean, really have a great weekend. I'll meet you back here Monday. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. There's only one place you hear conversations like these. This is Bloomberg

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