Sound On: Taiwan Fires Warning Shots at Drones

power women. They are about to find out. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Taiwan fires had drones from mainland China. Welcome to the fastest hour in politics as tensions rise in the Taiwan Straight just as U S. Navy warships passed through for the first time since Nancy Pelosi's trip to the island. Will discuss the

stakes and Washington's evolving relationship with Beijing. Not for a Better Right Now with Jacque de Lele, director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China at the University of Pennsylvania Law School. Later, President Biden back to Pennsylvania today to talk up his new plan to fight crime, and he's going back to battleground Pennsylvania two more times

in the next week. We'll talk mid term strategies with Christian Hall, national politics reporter at Bloomberg Analysis from our panel Bloomberg Politics contributor Democratic analyst Jennie Chanzano, joined today by Republican analyst Bill McGinley with the Vogel Group. Another surprising headline from Taiwan, where soldiers have fired shots to ward off drones flying close to some small islands that are controlled by Taipei. Well, if you ask Taiwan, this

right near the Chinese coast. Uh, this is dangerous stuff. The headline alone says enough. It's another day where tensions are rising. Here in White House, Press Secretary Karine Jean Pierre was asked about it early today's briefing. I should say gaggle actually because they were on Air Force one on the way to Pennsylvania where the President spoke today, but very carefully answered by Karine John p Here here

she is. We remain committed to our China, One China policy, as you've heard us say these past several weeks, in accordance with that policy, will continue to fly, will continue to sail and operate where international law allows us to consistent with our laun standing commitment again to freedom of navigation, and that includes conducting standard air and maritime transit through the Taiwan straight So we're gonna keep doing what we're doing.

They're gonna keep doing what they're doing, but it does seem to be a new level. Three drones here. Uh, none of them were hit and we're sort of warning shots as they're described by Taiwan, and they did head back to mainland China at one point one of them re emerged. But this is scary stuff in Taipei, and

it's where we start our conversation. Following a heard congressional trip with Codel to Taiwan, this time we spoke with Senator Marshall Blackburn of Tennessee who just returned, and it's all coinciding here with as I mentioned, are evolving and some would suggest deteriorating relationship with Beijing. Joining us on

Bloomberg sound On. Jack Delisle, the Stephen Cozen Professor of Law and Political Science, runs the Center for the Study of Contemporary China at the University of Pennsylvania Law School. Jack thanks for being with us when we hear about Taiwan opening fire on anything made by China. What does that tell us about the state of affairs in the Taiwan straight Well, it's a reminder that the state of

affairs is not good. It hasn't been good for several years now, and of course it was especially bad earlier in August, and we saw the military exercises that China launched in the waters around Taiwan. Well, so talk to me more about this. Is it not a new level? I mean, once you start seeing things being shot from Taiwan, that opens up an invitation to any number of respond from China. Sure, I mean I think it is another ratchet up, another or at least another front in this

kind of gray zone conflict. Now, to frame this a little bit, what's going on is China is sending unarmed air an armed airborne vehicle. So there's there's no real chance of people dying here over the airs into the airspace over islands controlled by Taiwan. And these are merely unarmed drones, they don't have weapons on them, and it's in fairly peripheral islands. But China is trying to make the point and trying to get its new normal where it exercises a degree of control in the airspace over

land areas claimed and controlled by Taiwan. So it's sort of ascertain a sovereignty. And if you look at what the Ministry of Foreign Afair At spokesman, the famous lincombative dyn said, there's nothing to see here. It's just Chinese drones over Chinese airspace, over Chinese land. That of course is provocative towards Taiwan. And their view is that this is an unwanted, uninvited guests. They actually quoted an old Chinese proverb to that effect. So they're trying to warn

an all off and trying to push back. What if they shot one down, is that is that an act of war? Um? Well, if they shot one down, the claim from the Taiwanese side would be it was an act of self defense against against a hostile vehicle being

sent in by China. In the Chinese view, it's essentially China acting over Chinese territory, and so in a way it's a wonderfully tangible and in some ways quite scary example of the nub of the dispute, which is China claims Taiwan is part of China full stop in Taiwan claims a good deal of sovereign economy, So it was simply China shooting back at itself. Um, that was sort

of the Chinese view of Taiwan. You know, it takes many shades of of of dark gray here, but one of them is that it's essentially a rebellious would be a secessionist area, and they're trying to put that down and reclaim control. I mean, this goes way way back. It's just that it's become a lot scarier recently because of let's talk about why. How much of this has to do with Nancy Pelosi and the two other congressional

journeys to Taiwan. I mean, is it as simple as that I realized that we were we were already having some issues here, but there's a long history of issues. The two presidents were to speak again, and then things

caught fire when Nancy Pelosi got on an airplane. Yes, so we've certainly seen in the last several weeks a significant uptick tick in visible signs of US connections and support for Taiwan, and the congressional delegations, the first one led by Pelosi too, since then have certainly done that, but I think it's just another tick up in a

long standing trajectory. And basically the dynamic is the U SCS China is trying to coerce Taiwan more and more, and the US pushes back against that, and China then sees that a stronger US interference. So it's just layering one of these things on top of another. As for the Pelosi even is that. Of course it was somewhat provocative on its own terms, but I think what really drove it was China said, don't do this, and the US didn't do much to stop it. And then we

were off to the races. Well we were. We were joined by members of the second uh Codell, Congressman Gara Mendi among them. He on Bloomberg Radio and I spoke yesterday with Senator Marshall Blackburn, who just returned from Taiwan and and tried to raise the bar here a little bit. And as I asked her, she referred to Taiwan as a country these things are are listened to and parst carefully in Beijing. That's considered very offensive UH And I

asked her if she intended to do that. She had referred to Taiwan as a country at SEPAK earlier this year as well. Listened to her answer, Senator Blackburn, Yes, indeed it was. I think it is important for us to to recognize Taiwan. They share our values of democracy, a freedom of independence. They have a founding father, they have a constitution, they have a president. How much does rhetoric like that from an American lawmaker damage the relationship

with Beijing. It's certainly not helpful. Of course, terms like country and recognized can be used in a colloquial sense, but China will read them and literal sense, and the country implies separate sovereign state. That runs a foul of the ambiguities baked into the US one China policy which says the status of Taiwan is basically undetermined. Uh, and recognition if we're talking diplomatic recognition, treating Taiwan as a country with the government and we that's just inconsistent with

where US policy has been. Now again, China can be a little disingenuous in this. They know that Marsha Blackburn is probably not speaking super precisely, and even if she is trying to push the envelope on this, which she very well might be trying to do their people in Congress who are pushing for formal diplomatic relations and so on.

It's still not administration policy, but China takes it as further evidence that the US is kind of stealthily and sneakily subporting those who would push for greater, you know, full fledged formal independence in Taiwan. Seemed to be looking for an excuse here, and we've got a whole bunch of people lined up to provide them. Yep. There's profound distrust on both sides and a real willingness to to put the worst possible reading on them. That's kind of

why we're in the dangerous spiral we're in now. So where does this go in in the next year, will say Jagra for the remainder the Biden administration, is it actually time to start taking another look at the One China policy because we seem to be crossing it, at

least rhetorically, fairly often. Yeah. So, I think the authoritative statements foreign policy still come primarily from the administration, the president and his cabinet and so on, with Congress of course having some influence, and Biden himself has has edged a little farther out with his discussions of obligations to defend Taiwan and so on. But the US still continues to cling to the One China policy, and I think that makes sense. It would be truly disruptive to go elsewhere.

I don't think you'll even find leaders in Taiwan who want to see that bedrock of the stability that has more or less persisted in the Strait for decades now to come apart. So the trick is to find ways of pushing back against Chinese coercion, which entails showing stronger support for Taiwan that don't cross whatever China's red lines are well at the same time not letting China to essentially to exercise a Heckler's veto and to find what

US policy has to be. It's a delicate dance, and there are too many people that danced for right now to send a clear We're talking with Jacques Delile on Bloomberg Sound on as we consider the relationship that China has with Russia. It really informs what's been happening on this side of the world as well. And in a major headline that if you haven't heard, if you're if you're on your way home, you might not have seen

on the terminal that Michael gorber Chef has died. Uh. The Soviet leader, of course, who helped to end the Cold War dies at Jacques. I don't know how old you have to be for that to mean something to you. That the in the ideas of Parastroika and glass Noze from that period of time. Uh. But you know, I'll spare you the end of an era uh line here. But we're certainly reminded of a different world in Russia and in that part of the world as we recall

the life of Michael Gorbachev. Yeah, I mean it's I am certainly old enough to remember Gorbachev in Paris and Tiana men the democracy movement in China which coincider and in fact Gorbachev played a role in that. He was an inspirational figure to many of the students on Tianamen Square and eighty nine calling for democratic reforms in China. And after he left is when you know, the protests

accelerated and we saw the crack. But I think what he represents is the possibility of a path toward reform and openness, a greater political openness, a degree of democracy in a communist style authoritarian system. But what do we get a statement from the Kremlin on this? Or does Vladimir say nothing? I haven't heard him. Yeah, well I haven't either, Shack, but I'll let you know what I hear.

Jacqu delil is great to talk with you from the Study of Contemporary China, the Center of at the University Pennsylvania Law School. Well assemble our panel. Next, Joe Matthew, This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg sound on on Bloomberg Radio. The news from Taiwan today. Shooting at if only test firing or warning shots, I should say, Chinese drones over islands is just the latest wrinkling comes two days after the United States sent two Navy vessels into the Taiwan

straight for the first time since Nancy Pelosi's visit. These weren't just any vessels, by the way, Takonda ROGA class guided missile cruisers. And how about it the U S. S. Antietam and the U S. S. Chancellor's pill Uh, of course, themed after two Civil War battles. Not a coincidence, I'm assuming. As we read on the terminal based on Bloomberg data. These were the first missile laden cruisers that we have sent.

In the past five years through the stray. At least a quarter of the transits announced by the Navy have involved two vessels. None have involved two cruisers. According to Bloomberg, how much of that had to do with the drones. All this stuff seems to be a chain reaction between

China and Taiwan's So some of the panel. Genie Schanzano is here Democratic analyst of course, Bloomberg Politics contributor, along with Bill mc gidley today former White House Cabinet Secretary during the Trump administration, and turning out the vocal group. Great to have both of you with us here, Genie, it seems like another layer every time we talk about Taiwan. When you hear of Taiwan firing, even if warning shots at at anything that belongs to China, does this create

a new worry for our military? It does? And I think Jacques's point about a dangerous spiral is a really important one, because you know, in this context, even the smallest things can become enormously consequential. And so I think you know that is every anybody's concerned, and you know you were talking about Pelosi's visit, and of course Marsha Blackburn. And today we have the governor of Arizona landing in

Taiwan for two days, and the Biden administration. It was just yesterday we were getting reporting that they have asked for one billion dollar arms sales to Taiwan. Now that's still being worked on, but let's not forget what that

means to China. Taiwan's military budget is fifteen billion total, so that's a pretty big amount over one one billion, and so all of these you know, quote unquote small things can lead China to react or overreact, not to mention any sort of dangerous accident like the shooting down of a you know, an airline or something like that.

So I think it is a curious, you know, a really scary time as we watch sort of the back and forth over there, what's your take on this bill and how concerned are you when you do hear about its Genie points out an important story almost a billion dollars maybe a little more uh in missiles and radar systems that the US is preparing, according to our sources, to sell to Taiwan, realizing that we have helped them historically, but for this all to be happening right now, UH

makes you wonder why did we send the cruise ships up the cruise missile ships I should say, up the Straight? And why is China flying drones around Taiwan? Well, I think the hope is is that bill sending the the cruisers through the Straight, but also the sale of arms UH to Taiwan, which I believe will get bipartisan support.

UM is hopefully designed to send a message piece through strength and that the real language that the Chinese Communist Party is going to understand is that this isn't something that they're going to be able to do under the putent theory of taking over Ukraine in two weeks. And I think is you begin to see Ukraine get bogged down.

And I don't think you can dec couple what's happening in Ukraine from what's happening with China with the probing and the incursions by the Chinese, whether it's the flights or the missiles, are now the drones UM probing UH you know Taiwanese airspace. UM. I don't think you can

decouple those. And I think that the lesson that we've learned throughout history is that peace does come through straight and I think the United States and asserting the freedom of the seas with the sailing through the Strait, but also saying that they're going to supply arms as they traditionally have to the Taiwanese with a strong bipartisan support, UM is going to demonstrate resolved to keep that region peaceful. UM, and that cooler heads need to prevail. What do you

make of the rhetoric from Senator Blackburn, Genie? Should should American lawmakers be referring to Taiwan as a country? Uh? The rhetoric we heard from Nancy Pelosi while she was there aimed directly at President She even even making reference to him as a sexist, saying he wouldn't have gone after her if she had been a man. All of this stuff is adding up to something in Beijing. Is it part of the strategy. Maybe it's a good thing. I'm genuinely curious if they're hurting or helping, you know,

I like I asked about Pelosi's visit. UM. Yeah, I'm always curious to say, you know, what is the policy outcome that benefits the United States and not these lawmakers in particular, or even a party or even Congress as a whole. And with Pelosi's visit, I struggled to find the upside there. You know, Bill was just talking about Ukraine, and as you know, we are looking at the situation

there in Ukraine. One of the big question marks becomes, what if we, you know, in these movements and these efforts and these statements, you know, encourage China to take more supportive measures visa VI Russia in Ukraine. Um, not that they would do that, but you know, this issue of an upside. So I don't see the benefit of sort of keep poking the bear, if you will. That's not a projection of power in your own I don't

see the benefit to the United Stations. I think that's why the administration, with Pelosi's visit, wasn't that excited about it. If there was a real benefit, that would be one thing. If there's not, I'm not sure it is advised to keep going like this. Genie Chanzano and Bill McKinley make up our panel today. They're back after we check in with Bloomberg National politics reporter Christian Hall. President Biden drawn

some lines today in Pennsylvania. Donald Trump's gonna draw more later this week, and we'll dig into what's happening driving the campaign coming up. This is Bloomberg. President Biden says he is not done when it comes to the issue of stopping gun violence. He held an event today in wilkes Bury, Pennsylvania. Wilkes Barry. By the way, if you're wondering thirty seven billion dollars in crime prevention, you start

thinking about. It's got a name, uh, the Safer America Plan, and it breaks down into a bunch of grants, incentives, help higher additional police officers, clear court backlogs to solve cases, a grant program for cities and states to use to promote violence prevention. Uh, there's a lot in here. As the President reaches for a refrain that was used against Democrats to try to gain traction in Pennsylvania. Here he

is today is based on a simple notion. When it comes to public safety to this nation, the answer is not defund the police. It's fund the police. Fund the police. As we heard him say during the State of the Union address, a hundred thousand additional police officers for communities to hire and train with the better part of thirteen billion dollars over the next five years. Did you think this is what we'd be talking about two months out

from November? Of course, gun safety is one of the big accomplishments that President Biden wants to take on the trail. Look at the list right, the legislative accomplishments. You can add in forest structure to that. You can add the Inflation Reduction Act, whatever you want to call it, the Chips Act, the burn Pits Act. This is the portfolio. Does it matter though, when you when you see a president with approval ratings tracking the price of gas every day?

I think so last time we checked low forties. I'll take another look. And this is where we start with Christian Hall, who joins us from Washington here at Bloomberg National Politics Reporter. Christian, Welcome, It's great to have you. Uh, this is gonna be one of three trips. As I mentioned to Pennsylvania, crime prevention is something that we had been hearing was gonna be held against Democrats in the fall. Can the president try to own this issue? Hi, Joe,

thanks so much for having me. I mean, I think, um, police funding, it's gonna be difficult for Democrats. I think the question that they're going to ask when they come back into Congress is how can we help ourselves? UM, and police funding definitely will be one of those challenges for them. There have been some lingering disagreements between progress

sis and moderates on law enforcement. UM. A lot of frontliners see this as an opportunity to kind of pin a hole in the defund the police attacks from Republicans, but progressives in CVC members are wary of funding without accountability measures and you know, UM how it's going to impact minority community specifically. This is going nowhere right on Capitol Hill, the Safer America's Act. No. I mean, it really is going to be a challenge for Democrats to

be able to come together on this. Maybe something in the House. I know Nancy Pelosi was working on a series of bills, but this is UH. It would be funded through by the way the existing budget request for three UM. The President's going back to Pennsylvania on Thursday a primetime address Christian in which he will talk about the battle for the soul of America, soul of the nation, something he talks about in his speeches, and then he'll go back again for Labor Day, where he's going to

march in a parade. Are we to believe that the balance of power will be decided in Pennsylvania. What's what's going on there that's bringing him three times in a week. I mean, Democrats see Pennsylvania as a real pickup opportunity. I think the Cook Political report showed that the contest has shifted from a toss up to leaning Democrats. Dr Ross Feederman race. Yes, Dr Ozz Federman, I mean Fetterman has been incredibly effective at, you know, fighting this race

through the media. He took a little bit of a hiatus after suffering a stroke a while back, and now he's, you know, doing a really good job. He's leading in fundraising, out raising OZ by over eight million dollars. So Democrats see this as a real opportunity. Dr Rozz will be on stage with Donald Trump. That's the other big one this week happening also in wilkes Bury on Saturday night. UH Doug Mastriano will be there an election denying UH nominee,

the Republican nominee for for governor. UH. And we see the headline today that seven more Republican leaders are endorsing Democrat Josh Shapiro for the governor of Pennsylvania. What can Donald Trump do to get either of these campaigns moving again? I mean, you know, people are calling into question the impact that an endorsement from Donald Trump still has. And even though there are some races that he's endorsed candidates

and you know, uh, he hasn't been as helpful. I do think that an endorsement from Donald Trump is still something that candidates want to have and can have really you know, good impact on the ability to win. We talked about Joe Biden's list of accomplishments. There's still a shopping list. Senate comes back next week, right then the House after that. What could possibly happen and let's be let's be honest with each other here, Christian, between now

and November. Uh, is it? Is it going to be the normal kick the can try to figure out some kind of a spending bill or is there anything else in new legislation that this Congress can pass well? Again, as I said earlier, I really believe that Democrats are going to try to find legislation that can help them ahead of the mid terms. I think one thing might be same sex marriage. You know, sevent of Americans support same sex marriage, and by Senate Democrats bringing Chuck Schumer

bringing that to the floor. Um, it could put Republicans in a little bit of a squeeze, people like Ron Johnson, you know, ahead of his race against me and Deela Barnes. It can be a real issue for some Republicans. The President again will speak in prime time. And by the way, I'm not assuming that a lot of networks are going to be carrying this some primetime. It's really a kind of a campaign event, even though he's speaking as the president.

Uh on Thursday night, Is this gonna be ultra maga equals semi fascist or what's going to be the address? Was today the dress rehearsal. I mean, I think President Biden is going to try to pick up on the momentum that Democrats have right now. I mean they are just coming off the heels of the student loan program. Um. You know, Democrats and Republicans are neck and neck engineer ballot polling. UM. Just earlier this month, abortion rights activists

were able to turn back Kansas's state constitutional amendment. So yeah, I think they have a lot of a good chance um in the mid terms, come see us again. Christian Hall, National politics reporter, in Washington at Bloomberg will reassemble the panel next for their take on this. It did sound a bit like a dress rehearsal to me. Even raised his voice a few times. Joe Biden back in Pennsylvania. This is sound on on Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg

sound on on Bloomberg Radio. President Biden testing his political muscle. As I read on the terminalist mid term travel Blitz begins, I guess travel Blitz of Pennsylvania to be exact. He's in wilkes Bury today, He'll be back Thursday in Philadelphia for the prime time address, and then marching with a

guy named John Fetterman on Monday. Yeah, there were a lot of stink was made about the fact that Fetterman, of course, the Democratic nominee for Senate, was not going to be with Joe Biden today well or on Thursday. That's a little bit of a different matter. I was gonna be marching in the parade with him on Monday. Hopefully that's gonna make it all right here one out

of three, I don't know the president today. Tried to pappoll writ here he is and by the way, he couldn't be here today, we spoke Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman. He's when I say he's a powerful voice, that's the guy I used to be in the old day. Is a pretty good athlete. If someone was really big and tough, you said I wouldn't screw with him about a sledgehammer. Well, I tell you what. Fetterman is a hell of a guy, a powerful voice for working people, and he's gonna make

your great United States senator. You're gonna make your great United States senator. Sort of a glancing reference to the health of the candidate. Yeah, he's a big dude. And Dr ros has been spending a lot of time talking about the fact that he had a stroke. Uh and according to Dr Roz doesn't eat enough vegetables. But this is the state of politics in Pennsylvania. Let's reassemble the panel.

Genie's back with us. Jennie Chanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributor and Democratic analyst with Bill McGinley today, former White House Cabinet Secretary in the Trump administration, now principal with the Vogel Group, Bill, when you start talking about the fight for the soul of the nation, that's gonna be a primetime address for Joe Biden on Thursday night. Uh, it sounded today like that was his dress rehearsal, like he was given the test, the script a bit of a test here. Uh where's

he going with this and who's the audience? Well, I think he's trying to do a reset pre Labor Day because post labor dates when the election really begins. And unfortunately for the Biden ministry ration, name calling of Democrats are Republicans and independence isn't going to change the economic reality that Americans are dealing with. I mean, real hourly wages have fallen by three point six percent this year

when compared to inflation. Inflation still at historic highs, and according to Bloomberg, one in six households are behind other utility payments, which is about twenty million Americans. These are the economic realities that the American voters, especially those voters in Pennsylvania, that we're reliant on the fossil fuel industry, including fracking, that the President has and through his policies,

has really attacked and we can't forget that. The wrong track number for the United States has been above seventy for almost a year, and gravitational they've only gone up a couple of points. It's only gone up a couple of points, even as gas prices have fallen Genie by something like seventy six straight days. Is that? Is that what he should mention? You know that we're fighting for

the soul of America and the gas pump. Well, you know what Republicans want to talk about and should be talking about is exactly what Bill is just talking about. The problem is what you described earlier, which is that you have a current president and this is not a referendum on him. It's going to be a choice between Biden and what many moderates and independence will decide these districts see as the sort of extremists and craziness of

a Donald Trump, because look at what's happening. President Biden there today, Donald Trump there on Saturday, President Biden back there on Monday. And this is what the Democrats are doing. This is why he is talking about these issues because he wants to make this a referendum on the Trump administration. He doesn't want to talk about inflation. He may want to mention gas the price is going lower. What he wants to say is we are we have returned some

sense of normalcy we got things done. I want to appeal to the centrist, to the pragmatists. I want to appeal to Americans with common sense, and he's slipping the strip, as you mentioned, on this issue, police safety and all these other things. If they're talking about the economic things, Bill is right, Republicans win hand down. But that's not what they're being able to talk about. And that's the problem for Republicans. This one out of three not bad

for John Federman. Jennie, Well, you know, we always make a big deal out of this stuff, but I don't know why he didn't want to greet him today. There was nothing worth showing up for the photo op. You don't want to overdo it. Yeah, you know, I think he's he's the lieutenant governor, he's on the campaign trail. He's gonna be there Monday. Pennsylvania is a fairly friendly state to Joe Biden. It's his birth state. He's got a lot of history there. But you look at some

other states and they're not as friendly. And you do have senatorial candidates in other states who are a little bit less maybe a little bit less welcoming, and that's what the Biden administration is trying to showcase to those like the Maggie Hassan's of the world, we can come there and help you. Pennsylvania though he is there, and don't forget they're in the eighth district. That's a district

that Trump won in sixteen and twenty. They really want to show that Democrats can do what they did, what we're I am in New York in the nineteenth and they can overperform what Trump was doing and what Republicans were able to do. Let they do that with an argument about abortion rights bill that seemed to be the differentiator in New York. Well, let's also understand what happened in the New York nineteenth district. It was held on primary election day where independents were not allowed to vote

in the special election. So you don't see that. I do not see that as a bell whether it was a pre Labor Day doldrums of August uh independence couldn't vote in the primaries, and I think it depressed the independent turnout. Um independents are breaking hard to Republicans. Hispanics are breaking toward Republicans. African American males are breaking toward Republicans, not only on the economic issues, but also the crime issue. I think the bill tell me that across the country.

Is this a false narrative? Is it a false narrative? Sorry for interrupting. That we're hearing that that that the ground is shifting, that Republicans are suddenly on their heels going into November, they'll barely take the house, is what I hear. Bill. I well, I I gotta say this, and you know, I, for one, have been saying this, and every smart consultant that I talked to or listen to has been saying this. Way of elections and election victories aren't something that you sit back and watch come

up on the shore. There's something that you have to earn. You've got to get out there and engage the voters. You've got to be visible and put out your agenda. And that's what every Republican candidate is going to be doing. I mean, nobody is satisfied with the economy right now and what's happening in terms of middle income and lower income and working class budgets compared to the soaring prices

that they're dealing with. Nobody is happy with the high crime rates, whether you're in suburbia, urban or rural areas.

I mean, if you the Democrats and you know, want to try to own the crime message, I think every Republican in America is going to say, let's have that debate because Democrats own the crime issue because of d a's like gascon out in Los Angeles, the one in Manhattan, and the others who are doing no cash bail where every night you're seeing something where a violent offender is arrested and brought into jail and then immediately released and goes out and does it again. Well, listen, crime rates

are soaring. If you ask miss McConnell, though, he'll tell you that that Republicans may not be able to take the Senate because not even of issues, because of candidate quality. That was the phrase that that he chose. Bill. Are you worried about states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Ohio, Arizona that seemed to keep coming up here? I think every state that you just mentioned is always going to be very close.

Um kind of war of attrition politically, type of election where you're gonna have to scratch and claw for every boat. And I think both parties have known that. I mean, and Emerson Pole just came out and Georgia's showing uh Walker up two points on Warrnoff, um, whereas a lot of people were saying Warrnoff was running away with that. If you look at the polling out of Pennsylvania, that is tightening, the same thing with Ohio. But you also

have places like Nevada where Adam Assault is doing really well. Um. You look at some of the polling that comes out of Washington State and Patty Murray's got a fight on her hand the first time in a long time. So you're saying, do you see Republicans taking the Senate bill before I bring Genie back in? I think. I think Republicans have a real shot to take a narrow majority in the Senate. I think they're going to take the House.

The question is going to be the margin. But I do think when people start paying attention post Labor Day, because remember all American families right now are finishing up the summer vacations and kids are getting back to school, They're starting to get into the routine. If you talk to an American family sitting around the kitchen table, I mean, you know, politics is not top of mine. It's what are we doing to get the kids ready, not only

for school, but the extracurriculars and everything else. Yeah, we've been back to school for two weeks here in Virginia. But who's counting Jennie. Look, So here's the Here's the threat or the risk I guess I should say for Democrats is complacency. Right, you start hearing all of the stories about well, listen, it's the Democrats Senate to lose all of a sudden, the House may not be that bad. Gosh will come back and maybe do another reconciliation bill

next year. Uh do you worry about Democrats letting their foot off the gas right now? The reality is there is probably over a seven or eight out of ten chants that Republicans take the House. The question is going to be by how much. Historically this should be an enormous victory for Republicans, but you've seen Cook and others, they've sort of downgraded some of those forecasts. Still with the GOP taking the House, the Senate has always been

more up for grabs. And what Democrats are responding to is, of course, these signs, which is all we can look at. And the signs are things like Republicans did incredibly well before the overturning of Row in the specials and in the Virginia New Jersey gubernatorial elections, they were over performing in the double digits in Texas, California, Virginia, New Jersey post the Dobs decision that has turned around, and you

also have Kansas. You you have Kansas, you have Minnesota of Nebraska, and you have the two in New York. Now does that dictate what's going to happen. Absolutely not. We've still got ten weeks to go on this thing. But those are the kinds of signs that, you know. The other thing I would just say to watch for is the gender gap amongst new voter registrants post Dobs enormous number of women, particularly young women registering. That's something to watch. So it is going to be a battle

of our turnout. This is incredibly tight. I would still say Republicans take the House and the Senate is up for grabs because we've only had a couple of elections in the modern era when the White House, the party in the White House has actually managed to you know, hold hold their own in the Congress. So that would be an exception, very unusual if Democrats did that. But the problem for Republicans is they haven't really been able to sort of move in the way they thought we

thought they would six months ago. Well, let's remind ourselves of where we are, and you both did, and in each of your last answer, which was still August, we still have a ways to go, and the desire to write the narrative as we speak here in real time is always great. Genie, thank you so much for being with us and being part of our panel here today. Bill. Thanks, This is Bloomberg