Sound On: Sinema's Tax Changes, Kansas Abortion-Rights Win (Radio)

I've never seen so many veterans with tears in their eyes and tears in their eyes of Joyce Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Senator Kirsten Cinema breaks her silence on the Democrats climate and tax bill. Welcome to the fastest hour in politics. With a big development that could mean the end of the carried in

for his tax break. We'll have the latest from Capitol Hill in Bloomberg's Eric Wasson Breaking News Tonight, Kansas stunts the pun It's with a vote on abortion while primaries are held in five states. A good night for Donald Trump in Arizona and a win for Eric in Missouri. Leave and say his last name, with Jessica Taylor of

the Cook Political Report. Our panel today Bloomberg Politics contributor, Democratic analyst Jeanie Chanzano, along with Republican strategist chap And Faye, former press secretary for Governor George Pattack either with us for the hour for analysis, and we start the headline crossed the terminal a short time ago. Cinema seeks to retain private equity, break curb corporate tax. Yes, the the senator from Arizona wants some changes, according to sources familiar

with discussions speaking with Bloomberg News. Now depite what Senator Joe Mansion indicated over the weekend. We swept the Sunday morning talk shows and was repeatedly asked about whether Kirsten Cinema was involved. She has an awful lot in this piece of legislation, the way it's been designed, as far as the reduction of Medicare, letting Medicare go ahead and negotiate for lower drug prices. She's very involved in that. Well.

That wasing on ABC this week helping to break the news for Bloomberg as Congress reporter Eric Wasson, he's with us right now. Great reporting, here, Eric, I suppose it should be no surprise that cinemas specifically looking at carried interest in corporate taxes. These are the two things that, uh, there was some concern about. Now that she's finally spoken,

what changes does you want? Well, this is clever. She's not spoken publicly, but she has talked to other members of the Senate and people around town, and people are lobbying her, and and right now she's looking to narrow the corporate minimum tax. This is a three teen billion dollar uh you know tax minimum on companies that make more than one billion dollars in rev revenue. And this is some talk of sort of exempting tax breaks from

manufacturers on depreciation and cost recovery. These are two benefits, especially enhanced by the Trump tax cuts, that would reduce the value of that that revenue by about a hundred billion dollars. So there's some talk of that. And then getting rid of the carried interest uh provision, which really only raises thirteen billion dollars, might be an easier lift

for her caucus. But all this is going to cause problems for for other members in the caucus, and it could delay uh you know, resolution of this, which Democrats up to pass this week. I thought we were going to be talking about the CBO score today saying that the deal cuts the deficit by just about as much as had been built. But now these changes kind of blow out that number, right, Well they could, yes, So CBO came out and officially said a hundred and two

billion dollars in deficit reduction over ten years. But when you factor in I R s they're going to give the I R S eighty billion dollars to hire more tax auditors. There's an informal estimate that will cause two hundred and four billion dollars more in revenue. CBO that does endorse that number, but they don't include it in their deficit figures. So you add them together, you get throughout three hundred billion, and that's what mentioned we have

been advertising. So no big surprise there. That land mine was diffused for these guys, but remains a live problem. That's a real problem. So are these deal breakers or is there negotiating room on the items you mentioned? I think there's negotiating room. I think for for many members of the caucus, the climate spending and the drug price provisions are the most important. Uh, you know, if they can do some changes on the tax side and and

and diffuse for cinema. These attacks that you're raising, you know, taxes in a harmful way during a recession, that could probably get over the line. And we don't know if the parliamentary in will keep for instance, the drug prescription drug pricing component in the bill. Right we're still waiting, uh for the bird bath to finish. Yes, there are aspects of that. I think My judgment is I haven't

watched this a for a long period of time. That the changes to Medicare along Medicare the negotiate and capping seniors out of pocket that directly relates to the Medicare programs that affects the government budget. I think those stake in there is some of the interferes with the private market inflation rebates. It sort of penalizes drug companies with excise tax if they raise prices higher than inflation. That might not be seen in directly tied to the government

budget and kicked out. We might also see this sort of cap on an insulin prices, uh, you know, in private insurance that just is being added in now basically at the request of Raphael Warnuck, who is the vulnerable uh Georgia senator who offered that provision, but most experts I talked to say that's not going to be allowed in boy A lot to talk about here, and Eric, we do thank you for joining us on a busy night.

He shares the byline on the story kirston Cinema through sources Bloomberg reporting that we may have some changes in store. We're gonna get back to this story a bit later in the hour with Bloomberg Government's Jack Fitzpatrick, who's going to take a look at some of the other items this one and others Democrats are trying to balance before they head home for August. Some big stories to cover. Thanks for joining us on the fastest hour in politics.

We didn't know we'd be. Starting with breaking news from the Senate, certainly following a newsy night, and big news not only on the primary trail but from Kansas. The resounding rejection as I read on the terminal of an

effort to allow new restrictions on abortion access. The President weight in today the voters, as it's in a powerful singium at this fall, the American people will vote to preserve and protect them right and refuse to let them be ripped away by politicians speaking remotely to an unrelated event, remembering he's in isolation with COVID. This referendum in Red Kansas the first abortion related ballot measure this year. It's the first time voters have had a chance to weigh

in since the Supreme Court ruling. Remembering here, as we've learned over the course of the day of registered voters, Democratic Republican, there was a week's long effort and by the way, this was a surprise, a week's long effort to try to make this happen by pro choice activist knocking on doors, writing cards, and it's made a lot of people wonder, with such strong turnout exactly what the

signals are here. That's where we begin with Jessica Taylor glad to say she's with us on this day after primary night, Senate and Governor's editor for the Cook Political Report. Pretty big deal here, Jessica, Is it possible I've seen a lot of headlines that called us a bell weather. Is it possible to extrapolate what this could mean for

the mid terms? Well, I think it's one data point that we have right now, and it's a big data point for sure, because this was the first electoral test after the Jobs decision repealed Roe v. Wade and sent it back to the states, and Kansas is a red state now it has a bit of a libertarian bent as well, which I think is what we are we're seeing here as well. But then just the resounding way that it voted showed that there are many states elsewhere where I think if you put this to a yes

or no vote that you would see a similar outcome. However, there's there are there are going to be referendums on some ballots um in the general election this November or in states. But when you're dealing with candidates and where they stand, you have to balance a lot of different issues and you can't just say I'm going to vote for this for abortion, yes or no, because you have

to vote for that via the candidate. I think it can matter more on governors races, and Laura Kelly is an incredibly endangered incumbent there in in Kansas, the Democratic governor. I think this could vode well for her certainly um and where it's probably gonna be one of the closest races. But again, where does it rank, Where does abortion rank overall, because remember, this is just on one issue, and we are seeing so much of the economy um inflation, fears

of a recession driving the election. This is really important as people try to connect the dots here. Uh, certainly what we saw in Kansas, as I mentioned, followed a concerted effort. But should this be frankly a strategy for the Republican Party to get this off the electoral plate. Let's get it onto alets in states all over the country. So you're not you're not weighing down a campaign with that issue. You're putting it up there as a single

issue decision. As you're describing, I mean East, she is going to make their own decision. And some of the swinging stages this year, it is more of a boot point, for instance in Nevada, where you have um tossed up governors race, a toss up Senate race that could be instrumental in deciding the majority um where it's already been legal and is enshrined in the constitution there in Nevada.

So that takes some of the pressure off Republicans. But then I think what it also tells us is that you have so many of these candidates that are winning Republican primaries. It used to be sort of the UK Republicans were anti abortion largely, but they supported exceptions and

candidates in the past and not support those exceptions. We saw that particularly in the twenty twelve elections with Toddy Aiken and Missouri and Richard Murdoch in Indiana and Senate races that were very winnable for Republicans that they lost

because of comments they made about rape and abortion. And really the commonality that I'm seeing among some of these Republicans, particularly Senate and governor Senate Canada especially, is that there is no exceptions and perhaps life of the mother, but that's about it. Um. And so how much of this out of step because this isn't just you know, I think there is this. America is sort of in the

middle on this. They don't want unrestricted abortion. This is what Republicans are arguing the Democrats want, but it took a lot of Republicans to make that happen. Last night though did not. But you see that as an outlier, I'm not sure if as an outlier. I think we need more data and I think the polling where we will see because this again voting gives us concrete data, certainly, and we have seen polling where this is, you know, where people want to still support UM, want abortion access.

But again it's not just a clean up or down vote come November. We have a lot to learn still on this as we spend time with Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report here on Bloomberg Sound On, and well, of course it was. It was an important day on the campaign trail across the board. Let's get into some of when they count the votes. We are going to win this and there's no path to victory for our opponent.

That's Carrie Lake endorsed by Donald Trump in the Republican gubernatorial primary in Arizona, claiming victory last night even though the race had not been called victory over the Mike Pence endorsed Karen Taylor Robson. She started making vague accusations about voter fraud before even before the first vote was counted. But don't let her get you down. Remember, talk is cheap start in Arizona only because we'll go out. I guess alphabetical here, Jessica, how do you see this one

turning out? Carry Lake obviously is taking some advice from Donald Trump on how to take credit for things right. Well, she is the Trump endorsed candidate. She has an election conspiracy theorists. Um, she's a former TV news anchor there in Phoenix. She's well known because she's I'm your gone. It's just sort of a radical transformation and to complete Trump accolyte there and uh, and she is a riskier general election candidate. She is leading. This race has not

been called. But um, you know, as her opponent noted there too, she was claiming fraud even before and then now there's no fraud. So, um, it's this is you know, something that we see other candidates doing. It's only fraud. And if I lose, you know, So is this good for Donald Trump? That it hasn't been called yet? And I asked, because Um, Mike Pence has chosen candidate seems to be performing just about as well. Um, minor standing

is probably the outstanding. Ballots are probably going to favor late, but we will see what the final totals come in. You can never really tell. But um, I mean it's good for Trump that his candidate one. He's gonna tout that certainly, but it could still lose them a seat in November sort of, Trump looks at He looks at the trees and not at the forest, because he wants to endorse candidates that are going to be loyal to him, that parent his election lies, and those are not necessarily

the best general election candidates. I mean, he has already cost Republicans two seats to two governors races in Massachusetts, in Maryland by backing uh far right candidates that cannot win in those blue states. In one place in Um in Massachusetts, forcing a moderate governor to retire instead of run again. And Arizona. Doug Doocey there who backed Rob Ropeson is the r g A chairman. He knows how important this race is. Do you think Charlie Baker would

have run again if it weren't for Trump? UM. A lot of Republicans I've talked to you think that he would have, But ultimately, you know, because he very well could have lost in a primary because a lot of his support comes from independence and Democrats in the state versus the Republican basis popular governors in the country though, right or so? We here Blake tell me about Blake masters on the Senate primary is Senator Kelly in trouble.

This is the Trump endorsed candidate who is now the Republican nominee Senator Kelly has been in trouble because of the environment and the fact that he is running in a state that Biden only one by three tempts of that he's gone an opponent though, what is what do you what does this actual matchup tell you? I mean, Masters is the weakest of the possible candidates that could

have won UM. He has a lot of controversial writings that Democrats have already honed in on, saying favorable things about quoting Nazis and the Unit Bomber, and he's talked about abolishing Social Security. They will definitely play that in retiree heavy um Arizona UM he has. He's another Peter Teel candidate, the billionaire venture capitalist. It's also back to J. D. Evanson Ohio. And I think this is a race that I've heard a lot of worry from Republicans in the

past week or so about Masters versus Kelly. Who Kelly is popular. He's a former astronaut. There's probably no better thing you can be in politics than an astronaut because everybody loves astronauts. Um, he's running ahead of Biden again and ahead of Biden's favorability, so this could be a real race. A lot of people had kind of written him off. This was its supposed to be one of the seats that Republicans could flip. Right, No, it's it's

a race. It's still going to be a race. But I think Masters was the weaker of the candidates really because there's just a treasure trove of of you know, opposition research on him that's going to come out. Lastly, I'll ask you, Jessica about the the impeachers, as Donald Trump likes to call them. Three House Republicans on primary ballots. Last night, I realized we have two that I believe are are are not able to call yet in Washington State. But it was not a good night for Congressman Peter

Meyer in Michigan. And there was some Democratic meddling in this race. There were a lot of questions about a Democrats actually we're helping a prop up John Gibbs, the Trump endorsed candidate there. Right, We've seen this in some of Governor's racism and other places, but not in not in states where really the candidate the election denier candidate could feasibly win. This has been in blue or states. They're trying to, you know, take off the table um.

And here though you have Gibbs, who is an election DENI are worked in the Trump administration. Um Mayer someone that you had a lot of Democrats being very upset that the D Triple C came in and spent here. But did they make the general easier for Democrats? Um? They did. But given again, it's no sure thing. You may thank this guy is gonna be easier to beat, but a lot of people thought that about Donald Trump in as well. So well, they're setting themselves up in

a lot of cases. To your point, if if this is the bad strategy, we're gonna be hearing a lot about it. Jessica Taylor, thank you for coming in. It's great to talk to you again. Senate Governors edited the Cook Political Report with us on Bloomberg. Sound on. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington as we assemble the panel. The night after Eric one yo, Eric Schmitt, yes, Eric Schmidt one. Uh, not a good night for Eric Britten's. In fact, it was fairly decisive here this of course, Uh, the Republican

primary for Senate in Missouri. We had a little bit of fun with this last night because if you might remember, Donald Trump endorsed simply Eric without a last name, knowing to Eric's we're running. Jennie Schanzano was with US Bloomberg Politics contributor Democratic Analysts, and I know that you had some fun last evening with this one, chap and Faye is with US UH as well. Republican strategist, former Press secretary for the Governor of New York, George Pataki Chapen.

Great to have you back, Jeanie. What do you think of what we learned last evening here? Uh, it's a little bit difficult to to draw trend lines from last night, But why don't we start with Kansas because that could have ripple effects on the primary trail for the next couple of Or does it tell us anything about primary elections in November. Well, it's given Democrats a lot of

wind in their sales. Um. You know, there was talk that this may not go the way of the pro life movement, but I think you know, turn out alone up at about just over about nine hundred thousand equivalent with the two thousand and eighteen general election in August primary. And let's not forget the cynical reason the legislature put this on primary day was because there's not a lot of Democrats and not a lot of Democratic primaries in red Kansas. So they put it there expecting the Republicans

pro life would get out. And these numbers are astounding. So there's both the turnout and there's the the big win. And you know, you look at some of these counties and you're looking at you know, in counties that are rural, you're looking at fort saying they don't want to give the government this power to change the their ability to make reproductive health decisions. So it's a big win for

Democrats in that respect. The question as doesn't translate to November, and that's a huge another issue, and I'm not sure it does. But listen, things are so bad for Democrats right now. This is a very good sign. This and Donald Trump maybe just what they need to turn the corner. So did this, Chape and Faye temper your expectations for Republicans in November or is this a one off? I mean, I think, um, you know, like your previous guests said,

we need a little bit more data on it. But I do think this is a you know, huge red flag alarm bell should be going off. UM. You know, as you mentioned turnout and the stunning wind in a state like Kansas. UM, you know you're you're seeing, uh, the generic ballot nationally tighten up a little bit more. I think over recent weeks and months, and I think it's the Roe v. Wade decision had a lot to do with that. UM. I think this is shaping up

to be much closer than people think. I still think Republicans will probably you know, take back the House because the margin is so small, but I don't think there's gonna be I think there's gonna be title waves in certain states, in certain areas. UM. But I think this is this is going to temper that a little bit. To the extent that abortion is being litigator on election day,

that is that is generally not good for Republicans. This is a major indicator in in that front here because a lot of folks have been questioning whether this would in fact mobilize voters. And here we saw twice the turnout, almost twice the turnout of the primary in two thousand eighteen in Kansas. As you look at some of the other primary elections. I don't know if we learned a lot there. Certainly weren't too many surprises. Genie one impeachers so so called, was fired. Two more we have to

find out. We knew Trump was gonna play well in Arizona. That includes down ballot. Mark Fincham won the primary for secretary of State. He's going to be running the elections in Arizona as an election denier, and they they sent Rusty Bowers to the shower. Genie, how in Porton is that Mark finch Um race. I feel like that's when people should be talking a lot more about, you know

it is. And you know, I just kept thinking last night, what a division between a place like Arizona on the GOP side, whereas you mentioned election deniers, and certainly you have the a G race, the secretary of state race, you know, the governor's race, the Senate on the GOP side, versus a place like Georgia where where people making that case were turned away. So there is a big division there. And so you know, I think we're gonna have to

look state by state at this. You know, one takeaway from last night is that Donald Trump does retain enormous sway over the GOP base. And so when you're talking about primaries like this, he really does have it still enormous, not you know, power. It doesn't mean he's you know, all knowing and all forceful, but he does have a lot of sway. But that said, the what Democrats are hoping, of course, is that if you get candidates who are too extreme and still focused on as opposed to two

and looking forward, that may work to their advantage. And you know, as Jessica just said, somebody like Mark Kelly is feeling pretty good that they can maybe retain this Senate seat going up after Blake Masters. So this is a good day for Democrats. Hence the D Triple C funders funding these you know, extremist candidates, which I'm not a fan of. Well, god knows, Donald Trump had a good night in Missouri Chapin. I guess he he would

have either way. Eric first, fighters who will advance the America First agenda, secure the border, and finish President Trump's wall Er Schmidt's not Brighton's wins. This one peculiar. It's a Republican Senate primary, of course, it's important that's the Attorney General, Eric Schmidt also an election denier. But what did you make of that whole not endorsement chapin with Donald Trump just joking around, you know. It's it's it's very hard to tell sometimes what President Trump is doing

or thinking, um in his actions and tweets. Um. I think it was probably a big hedge. Um. One thing we know about Trump as he likes to side with winners, right. I mean, most of most endorsers on the cynical side of politics want to endorse the winner, right, Um, you know, and and and it's less about principle than it is about you know, pick a winner. So I think that's probably what he was doing. So it's a hedge with

a smirk. Although I hear that Republicans were relieved that it was not Eric Written's would you agree with that? I think so. I mean, you know, uh, the former president still has a lot of sway as we saw last night. Um, so his his endorsement is meaningful. So to the extent, I do think they were relieved because if he had been more specific and going with the other guy, it could have been it could have been a different outcome. Brighten's of course, the man with the

rhino hunting license. I guess that won't be available in Missouri now, A great panel, of course, they'll be back. Genie Chanzano and Chapin Faye with us as we turned back to breaking news on Capitol Hill on reconciliation. This is Bloomberg broadcasting live from our nation's capital, Bloomberg to New York, Bloomberg eleven, Frio to Boston, Bloomberg one oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to the Country Serious XM Channel one nine and around the globe

the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew. Democrats in the Senate thought they were days away from a vote on the climate in tax bill worked out between Joe Mansion and Chuck Schumer. Even the CBO confirmed the deficit numbers in the bill, but kirston Cinema Wealth that all may be changing. We'll talk about it next with Bloomberg Government's

Jack Fitzpatrick live from Capitol Hill. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was sounding pretty confidence on the Senate floor this morning over progress on the Democrats climate and tax bill, though when they call the Inflation Reduction Acts. We will protect health care, we will lower the price of prescription drugs, and make energy cheaper while making the largest investment in

clean energy ever. These are things that Americans support. These are things that our country needs, and these are things that we're going to get done when we pass the Inflation Reduction Act in the coming days in the coming days, generating headlines, but maybe not as Bloomberg Now reports that

Kirston Cinema is looking to make some changes here. As we discussed earlier with Eric Wasson that carried interest component here and the corporate tax that the very issues that people were concerned about in thoughtful jeez, maybe maybe Joe Mansion kind of knew what she was thinking. He suggested as much on Sunday. Remember played that for you a little while ago. ABC this week, didn't you talk to kirston Cinema, Senator? She has an awful lot in this

piece of legislation, in the way it's been designed. As far as the reduction of Medicare, Let Medicare go ahead and negotiate for lower drug prices, She's very involved in that. What about the rest minimum tax, corporate minimum tax? What about ending carried interest because apparently she's not on board with either of them. We thought we'd be having a different conversation today with Jack Fitzpatrick, but this just broke a short time ago. He's with us, of course, Bloomberg

Government Congress reporter. Uh, how concerned is the leadership about this development? Jack? Did the whole timeline just changed. I don't know if the whole timeline has changed yet. We knew that Senator Cinema would be the person to watch here, and we really knew about the issue of the carried interest loophole. Now the fact that she also wants a change to that fiferent corporate minimum tax, that's interesting. Apparently she is pushing to narrow that the circumstances in which

would apply. It's not necessarily that she's trying to throw it out entirely. It very well made maybe the case that if she gets what she wants, it wouldn't make a huge difference in terms of the tax revenue that this would bring in, and therefore wouldn't make a big difference in the deficit reduction outcome and all of that. The carried interest measures only fourteen billion dollars of revenue in the bill, that would raise more than seven So look,

they need her vote. If they don't get her vote, this thing falls apart. Impossible though that what she's asking for would not fundamentally change the bill. Uh, And they knew that this would not be an easy easy task. They've got to get everybody on board, and they're bound to be some lastminute negotiations. Uh. They do seem to think that, you know, work over the weekends, maybe early next week. This is something that they can still get done.

Joe Mansion's refrain on on all the Sunday morning shows and needed them all was we have there are no tax hikes here, only closing closing tax loopholes. I'm assuming that she is not seeing it that way. So you eliminate the carried interest in this case, make Wall Street happy. The corporate minimum tax though, wouldn't that involve like a major rewrite of this plan. Uh? That depends. You know. The conversation that had been happening going into this was

how many corporations? In which corporations does this apply to? Uh? We you know, it's it's not like Senator Cinema has a new draft that we can compare and contrast. But for example, UH Senator Mansion was saying that fifteen percent minimum should apply to UH corporations with a billion or

more in annual revenue. So if she wants to poke a hole in that and say, well, there could be carved outs for certain other kinds of corporations or raise the threshold, that may not need to be a massive rewrite if it's generally around the idea, the same idea of a fifteen percent minimum, and there's a debate over exactly who it who it UH applies to. She's not even the only one who may want some change, you know. For example, UM Senator Debbie Stabin now from Michigan wants

some changes on the tax credits for electric vehicles. There's there's always going to be in a big bill like this there until the very last moment, there's gonna be a conversation about, well, what can we tweak? Can we do this for my constituents? Uh, it's not easy to pass it, but it doesn't necessarily mean a fundamental rewrite or something deeply complex that would take a huge amount of time to do. Okay, this is interesting. We're still planning for a working weekend right that there could be

root rama this weekend. What's your expectation the next couple of days, assuming they're talking with kirston Cinema. We've got sources talking to Bloomberg. I mean, can we assume there's a conversation going on here behind the scenes. Yes, we can assume there's some level of communication, especially now that we see Laura Davison and Eric Watson's report from earlier today that Cinemas putting out you know, what her concerns are, and that it's at least known to people, uh generally

talking to senators. We're not sure exactly what time and day the rest of this is going to take place, but yeah, the context is essentially trying to finish this, if not over the weekend, then early next week. I don't think anybody expects to be here in the middle of or late next week. Obviously, again, there are there are challenges, there are purdles they have to overcome, but there's still basically on a near term timeline of trying to get this built through the Senate over the next

uh you know, week or left. Jack Fitzpatrick, appreciate it. Jack, It's great to talk with you. Bloomberg Government Congress reporter still at it, working the halls of power on Capitol Hill and with us here on the fastest hour in politics. Mitch McConnell weighed in on the plan today. Of course, you know, as we talk about reconciliation. Just to remind you, since this gets to be a little wonky, it's just

like Build Back Better last year. It's only Democrats. That's why they have to have the Parliamentary and scrub this thing and actually be a budget revenue bill. And the Parliamentarian is not done yet, could still take components out of this. As we've heard, there have been challenges to every component of this bill from Republicans. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on the floor this morning. This bill is a massive goodie bag of far left environmental activists at

the expense of working families. Democrats want to use their own inflation as a pretext, could dump hundreds of billions of dollars into Green New Deal nonfense. This bill declares war on American energy, independent and affordability. We'll keep you posted on this and we'll reassemble the panel next on sound On brought to you by Commonwealth supporting more than two thousand independent financial advisers with the solutions they need to grow a thriving business. Commonwealth go where you grow.

Visit Commonwealth dot com to learn more. Check traffic and markets on the way. This is Bloombird. You're loose name to Bloomberg. You sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Could Senator kirston Cinema sinc the Inflation Reduction Act? She's certainly poised to make some changes, as Bloomberg is now reporting, But as we remember from Build Back Better, changes on the tax side can also mean big changes on the inside.

Let's reassemble the panel for their take. Bloomberg Politics contributor Democratic analyst Jeanie Chanzano is joined today by Chap and Fay, Republican strategist, and great to have you both back. Jennie, is it about to happen again? I don't think we could take it, Joe Matthews, So I certainly hope not.

But you know it was, well, that's true. Joe Manchin took the blame really, or was given the blame for Build Back Better the end of last year, but kirston Cinema was just as much a problem for it, right, Yeah, yeah, and it's true, you know, and too Jack's point earlier. You know, this is surprising. Um, she has long had this you know, view of the carried interest loophole. So

that's not a surprise, Um, corporate tax. You know the fact that she may want to make some changes in there a little bit more surprising, I would say, but you know, not not unthinkable. Um. The problem I think for Democrats is the longer this goes, the more Republicans are able to pick it apart, and that people come in and try to make changes, and that makes it harder.

You know, do I think they'll still get it done? Yes, I do, But this has always been an incredibly you know, you know, high tight rope act for for the Democrats to walk because they can't lose anyone at this point cheap. And there were a lot of questions about why Kirsten Cinema wasn't in the room, why was this a Schumer

mansion deal. I suppose we're still asking those questions. Yeah, I mean it's a legitimate, uh, concerned complain of hers, and it's given her this opening, Um, I think was sort of the wind at her back rather than the others. So it is this opportunit for Republicans. You heard what Mitch McConnell had to say about it, a far left goodie bag. Can Republicans make changes in this sort of

point of vulnerability or is that not the case? Reciliation? Well, I'm I'm not Sentate parliamentarian, thank gosh, and I don't envy the Senate Parliamentary in these days. Um, but I believe they're talking about a vote rama and under a reconciliation, I think they can offer certain amendments, as we can know Sarah McConnell and Republicans in the past have been

very good at that. And listen, it's less than a hundred days to the midterm elections, So I think both parties are going to, um, you know, forget about doing good by the people for a second, try and you know, quote unquote win um this battle. Regardless of what that looks like. I do agree that I think it will get done. But I do think there's a ton of opportunities for Republicans to pick apart each one and use it to their advantage in the in the coming midterms,

and Democrats could do the same thing. Jack Fitzpatrick's him to think that this could still flow without a big rewrite, without another submission to the Parliamentarian. Uh here, Jeannie, but boy, the time is just not on Democrats side. You've got an August recess. I suppose they can change that reschedule it. We know it will be a working weekend, but are we really doing this. We're gonna come back in September and hash this out in the media with kirston Cinema

and Joe Manchon. This is this is like a bad dream for some Democrats, it is, you know, I think it becomes very, very difficult to do this after Labor Day, as Japan just mentioned, you know, you are then dangerously close to the mid term um, you know, and you know I was noting things like Bernie Sanders obviously he's seldom happy with these things, but he has torn into Joe Manchon about what what's not in this bill. Not a big surprise there, but they can't afford to lose anyone.

And I thought one of the most fascinating reads on the terminal was Stephen Dennis and Jenny Leonard's piece about how the lobbying effort not a surprise, but the details of the lobbying effort that is going in Christian Cinema's ear is utterly astounding when you look at it. Everyone from the CEO of the Arizona Chamber of Commerce, two Republicans.

I mean, that was a fascinating reed to see the amount of pressure she's being put under, not only by Democrats but Republicans and people in her state and across the country who know she holds this in her hands. So she's been very tight lipped, obviously, but we see her and we hear about her getting a lot of

a lot of information from people who have very different views. Well, just when you think again that nothing gets done in Washington than that we're bogged down, and of course we are bogged down on well most things, something did pass the Senate today. On this vote, the yea's are six, the nays are eleven. Under the previous order requiring sixty votes for the adoption of this motion to concur the motion is agreed to you, Senator Hassen. That's the vote

on the Packed Act. We spent time on this last week, uh and even early this week. This was the burn Pits Bill. This was the bill to provide healthcare enhanced healthcare benefits to military veterans who were impacted made sick by toxic burn pits uh in in the field and in many cases in combat, although some here on basis in the US chapin Fay, Republicans took big heat for voting against this last week and an apparent reversal to protest the Mansion Schumer deal, a lot of them came

back to make this happen. Was was this an egg on face moment for the GOP um? I mean, I think it will play that way, right, regardless of what the what the reasoning is behind bills and votes. You know, there's not a lot of room for nuance in today's seven twitter media environment. Um. So, regardless of what the arguments for Republicans voting against it and then coming back, it's gonna look like they have egg on their face. I mean, it's a billet that that I think everyone

agrees should have been passed. Um. So if Republicans want to, you know, take a take a vote for some sort of print, well that's fine. Um, but it is gonna look a little a little silly now that someone came back and Muslim came back to vote for it. It's a win for Democrats for for Joe Biden, Genie, he's already scheduled a signing ceremony for next week, which which

Jeanie should tell you something. You know, in the midst of this reconciliation debate, you get something like this, you don't sign it unless there's a ceremony, plans you can take credit for it. That's right, and we shouldn't forget, you know, a very emotional issue for Joe Biden. He attributes the brain cancer and the death of his son Bo to exposure to burn pits like this so very emotional for him. And of course the bill named after Sergeant Robinson, thirty nine year old died of lung cancer.

His mother in law spent so much time pushing for this, and so moving were her remarks about the fact that doesn't benefit her family at all, but hopefully it is in tribute to her son in law. So it's going to be a very moving signing ceremony. It's you know, I think it's a win for veterans and a win for everybody who served in the in the Middle terry. It's hard to see this as just a win for Democrats, and and I hope that it's not sold that way,

because this is a critically important bill. Another important vote happening today in the Senate is that to approve the Sweden Finland entrance to NATO. This is something that has to be cleared by legislatures in all of the countries involved. And boy, to listen to Mitch McConnell today, essentially daring his Republican members to vote against their session will make NATO stronger and America more secure. If any Senator is looking for a defensible excuse to vote no, I wish

him good luck. I believe Josh Holly was one of them. Chapin, this isn't something Republicans want to stand against, correct, I don't think so. Um, you know, expansion of NATO. UM is important and um, a strong NATO is important for our national offense and the defense more allies. And you know, when Nancy Pelosi is over, you know, making a point in Taiwan. Um, I think it's important that this, you know,

I don't think Republicans. I don't think very many Republicans are going to vote against it in the end, especially since the leader, you know, uh Center McConnell, you know, isn't really in the habit of letting Republicans go um off the reservation um, you know, unless they have good reasons. So I think it'll I think most Republicans will be there on this, so we can cross this one off the list too, then, Jennie, I think so we think the shopping list, you know, to end the summer with

this was another component. Yeah, this is and you know it looks like what ninety plus or minus votes this will pass. You know, we should say, I mean, Holly's opposition is rooted sort of a Trumpian view of not expanding NATO, but of course that's all changed in the wake of Russia's invasion into a Ukraine. So you know it's Mitch mccamwell is probably saying, guys, don't do what you did on the Pact Act, even though we should say Toomey's vote there was probably principle, but many of

the others were not. Genie, thank you, Chapin Faye as always, great panel. Jeanie Schanzon will be back with us tomorrow and shape and it's great to talk with you. Republican strategist here on Bloomberg sound on. Uh yeah, I'll tell you what the uh the the debate if we can call it that. Leading up to UH, you know this vote on Sweden and Finland remarkable Senator Tom Carper Delaware, UH spent quite a bit of time talking about this

on the floor. If you think that you know, Washington is is all serious wonky policy, get a dose of Tom Carper making the case for Sweden. I had the privilege sitting next to the Queen during um dinner and UH, I said that. The Queen Sylvia said, is there a connection between Aba and you were and your husband? Is there there is? I said, well, what is it? She said,

the night before we're married? Uh, in Sweden? She said there there was a huge celebration and a concert out to our concert with tens of thousands of people, and she said the headlining group for the concert was they said, no kidding and this is and she said that was a night they debuted the song Dancing Queen. How about that for maybe one of the best pop songs I've ever heard. And I won't say that we sat there and come to few bars, but maybe we did. We

had a lot of common with this. Weet ended him the chair, very very much appreciation with you for the arts music. Yeah, it's about our shared interest in the arts and especially music, and by that I mean aba that Sweden will at last see its way into NATO, and at least according to the US Senate. Apologies for the earworm, and thanks to everyone for jumping in. Eric Watson with breaking news, Jessica Taylor after our primaries are

panel Genie and Shapen, and of course Jack Fitzpatrick. This is Bloomberg.