Sound On: Russia's War Games, Biden's MAGA Battle

to our democracy, to our freedom, to our right. This is going to be a peek into the closing arguments. I'm curious how he'll weave then what has actually been succession? Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. The more games begin in Russia. Welcome to the fastest hour in politics, as Moscow teams up now with China and India for major military exercises the last next week in

Russia's Far East. We'll discuss what this means for the U. S. China relationship with John kurve Be of the White House National Security Council. Just today, after Taiwan shoots down a Chinese drone, Analysis from our panel, Bloomberg Politics contributor, Republican strategist Rick Davis along with Democratic strategist Joel Pain. This hour later, we'll look at the job at hand for President Biden tonight as he prepares to address the nation

in prime time. Political analyst Lincoln Mitchell joins US from Columbia University. First, it was China's war games around Taiwan. Now it's Russia teaming with China and India for war games that include fifty thousand troops, more than a hundred forty aircraft in sixty warships in Russia's Far East in the Sea of Japan. This starts today and these exercises have been held before, but they take on new meaning with the war in Ukraine, with China's outrage over Nancy

Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and the deteriorating relationship there. I talked about this today with retired Admiral John Kirby, spokesman for the Y House National Security Council, started by asking him how the US was interpreting this display of force. Nations have to decide for themselves how they're going to

look after military readiness. But we've been very clear now is not the time to be treating Russia in any kind of normal way, and certainly not in the way that that they could glean improve military capabilities from that interaction, such as an exercise like this. Uh, we were mindful

of the exercise. Obviously, we'll watch it as close as as close as we can, But we're gonna be focused on our own military readiness in the Indo Pacific because our national security interests are so tied to so many other allies and partners in the region, Partners who are worried about China's increasing aggressive and course of behavior, Partners who are worried about what Russia is doing in Ukraine. So we're gonna stay We're gonna stay focused on our

own military readios. Knowing that Iran is now providing drones to Russia for use in Ukraine. What do you make of this idea of China, Russia and Iran as the new Axis. I don't think we're describing it in that way. Look, Russia realizes that it's been further isolated and ostracized as a result of what it's doing in Ukraine by so

much of the international community. So they're turning to those few countries that they can turn to for assistance, turning to Iran, is indicative not just of how isolated they really have become, but how much Iran is isolating itself further from the international community by being willing to provide these kinds of capabilities to Russia. And look, we're concerned

about those capabilities. Of course, it's just further evidence that Putin wants to kill more Ukrainians, which is why we're gonna stay focused on making sure that we're arming the Ukrainians with the kind of capabilities they need to beat back Russian offensives inside their own country. India is also taking part in these exercises. As we mentioned, Admiral, it seems to be still sort of straddling the line on

Russia's war with Ukraine. They have put on hold plans to buy some weapons and cooperate militarily with Russia, but now we have them taking part in these exercises. As the US expressed disappointments with India's leaders for their taking part, I certainly wouldn't talk about diplomatic discussions here. Every nation

has to make their own decisions. That India has got to make its own decisions about its bilateral relations with other countries, and certainly countries that it's going to exercise militarily with I would just say what I said before. We don't believe that this is a time for business as usual Russia. We certainly don't believe it's a time for any to anybody to be helping them with their

military capabilities. Well, I know you've sent that message to China repeatedly here, and we understand trade between China and Russia has increased in value by about thirty percent this year. At what point will the US start considering secondary sanctions, Admiral Well, I don't want to get ahead of any decisions by the President one way or the other. Uh. Look,

China has a choice to make uh and UH. They can either choose to join the rest of the world UH in condemning what Russia is doing in Ukraine UH and not helping him continue to kill innocent Ukrainians going forward, or they can just uh, you know, to to assist that effort. We we hope that they'll they'll make better

decisions going forward. In the meantime, We're gonna stay focused on making sure Ukraine can succeed on the battlefield and that Mr Putin continues to suffer severe costs and consequences for what he's done, and he has his economy is in tatters. He is not able to, for instance, regenerate precision guide munitions on the battlefield the way that he wanted to, and now he's forced to turn to Iran

for unmanned aerial systems. So it's having an effect. This pressure that's being placed internationally on Mr Putin, it's having an effect on him. And we're going to continue to to to raise those costs for for Mr Putin. John Kirby talking with us from the North lawn of the White House earlier today. We talked about a number of issues tied to national security, and we're gonna walk through them over the next few minutes here with our panel

Bloomberg Politics contribute to. Rick Davis is with us along with Democratic strategist Joel Paine, former director of African American Advertising for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. Rick, I'm gonna start with you here as we have what appears to be kind of a new level with China, Russia, India, fifty thousand troops. The numbers here, this is big stuff. A hundred and forty aircraft, sixty warships. How should the US

be viewing this. It's supposed to last a week, and is it not a different level than the last time they did this? Well, I think that everything now is a heightened you know, sensible awareness, right, I mean. And and there have been a lot more activity on war games by the Russians and by the Chinese that are not typically scheduled. These things are usually choreographed with all the various countries saying Okay, this is when we'll do yours, We'll do ours right after that. Um, And it's it's

all kind of a an elaborate dance. This is outside of that. And so, uh, China and Russia have been very aggressive with their war games. We've we've seen a lot of press around the activity China did just around Taiwan recently. And this is just upping the anti So it's threatening, it's not good and and and it should concern us because the Indo pack, especially India's participation in these games is a great red flag for us to focus on. And I think means we need to focus

more attention on India. Yeah, well that's right. Uh, India is part of this Joel, which is I think very troubling for the administration. Following the overtures made. But how about China. Look, nobody is going to be surprised by anything that Russia does. But isn't this a direct message from China to the West to say, yeah, we've we've got our own friends over here. All of this stuff is complicated when you talked about the geopolitics here and

the safer rattling is always to be taken seriously. But I also think it may be reflects and effectiveness of the Biden foreign policy. Um that the work that the Biden administration is doing in Russia to pushback on the war in Ukraine, the work that the Biden administration has been doing too for instance, um, you know, try to racket China economically with you know, the Chips Act and

other economic news internationally. I think some of what we're seeing is maybe a reaction to that, And um, it's always to be taken seriously, but it is a part of a big, complicated world. Also thinks reminds us rather rick to think about the chance of something going wrong when you put that many people, that many pieces of hardware altogether in one place. Uh, things can happen, as we have seen in this part of the world, all of this wealthy. The Chinese drones are flying over Taiwan. Uh,

this is a more dangerous moment than we're used to. Yeah, and readiness goes up. And and but there is good military to military communication, especially with the Indians, uh in the US military. So those channels are open. They're talking, they're they're trying to understand what they're trying to accomplish without you know, learning anything that they don't want to

give away. Uh. And and I think right now, even though there's a lot of saber lat saber rattling, as you said, um, it is not a time where I think China has chosen to uh try and create an incident with the United States. Everybody I've talked to you says it's not in their interests. They're not militarily capable of pulling something like that off. And it's not a good time to test this administration. It's still like playing

with Taiwan though. And we've seen four days in a row now drones that came from mainland China described as civilian drones interestingly buzzing islands that that that are associated with Taiwan, that Taiwan considers their own they've been warning shots until yesterday when Taiwan actually shot one down. This is my exchange with John Kirby on that. Well, Look, we support Taiwan's right and ability to defend itself. That's what the Tairoan Relations Act is all about. The United

States will continue to help them defend themselves. We'll let them speak to their operations and what they're doing or what they're not doing. But these reports are exactly what we've been talking about when we're talking about the risk of miscalculation um and rising, the risks of conflict, and nobody benefits from conflict. And around the Taiwan Straight, we have long said we don't want to see the status

quo changed unilaterally, certainly not by force. And what you're seeing from the pr SEE is an effort to change the status quo by flying more over the Median line, by by flying unmanned aerial systems in around Taiwan and on around the Taiwan Straight and islands. I mean, this is about changing the status quo in the in the Chinese mind, and we're just gonna we find that unacceptable. We're not gonna just abide by that. We're gonna continue to make sure that Taiwan can defend itself and the U.

S will continue to sail through the Taiwan Straight. Is that going to happen again eminently, Admiral Well. I don't have any future operations to speak to you. Saw we just did that last weekend with two U. S. Navy cruisers. We will continue to sail, operate and fly where international law permits us to do that. The Taiwan Straight is

international waters. So I certainly, without without briefing a a specific transit here in the future, I can tell you we're going to continue to operate where international law permits us to do. You have it from the spokesman for the White House National Security Council. That sounds like status quo. To meet Joel and how careful he is in the administration is and addressing this Taiwan issue. Yeah. Look, I'm mean for a long time, our policy has been strategic

ambiguity around Taiwan, around China. Um. I think the pelosis certainly amplifies the pressure on how this is handled. I do think. Um. You know what Kirby was saying there though, is the administration is not going to back down. I think it's important for the President to show that he's not intimidated that um, the American forces are going to be intimidated by any of these more aggressive actions by China. And I also think it's important to demonstrate that you're

on the right side of history. I think maybe that's why the Pelosi visit um was so complicated, because I'm sure the President actually agreed with Speaker Pelosi, but his role as a president probably precluded him from, you know, sharing his full thoughts on it. You're surprised by how little reaction there was to China, Rick, and seeing that drone shot down, you know, I think it's in everybody's interest to make that sort of a ho hum moment.

And but the message was sent to China that the Taiwanese aren't going to sit back and let themselves be threatened by this country. No, that's for sure. Rick Davis and Joel Payne with us on the panel as we review our conversation with John Kirby from the White House. Coming up, the latest in the war in Ukraine and the potential for a demilitarized zone around the nuclear power plants where U N inspectors have arrived. It's coming up next this is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg sound on

on Bloomberg Radio. The nuclear inspectors made their way into the plant. They've actually finished their first day as we keep an eye on what's happening in Ukraine. To the International Atomic Energy Agency director and a few members of an inspection team left the Zapparisian Nuclear power plant after several hours they spent inside. The Ukrainian state run company that manages the plant says five of a dozen inspectors

are expected to stay until Saturday. That's where we are with things, and that is where I pick up our conversation with retired Admiral John Kirby, spokesman for the National Security Council at the White House. We'll see how the panel can uh feel about this as well as we

work our way through a number of different stories. This is a big win though with we with the focus on the war in Ukraine, and I started again in this case by asking about Russia's posture in Ukraine now, the number of casualties they've suffered and exactly what state of readiness the Russian military is in the Russians have

clearly suffered UH an enormous number of casualties. I don't have the exact figure today, and we're we're careful not to talk about those numbers too specifically because frankly, it changes literally every day. But they have suffered an enormous

amount of casualties, both killed and wounded. And we know that to be the fact because we also know that Mr. Putin is going to extraordinary lengths to try to recruit and retain soldiers for this fight, even to the point where he's he's he's turned into two prisons UH and he's up in their recruitment age well into UH, well into the fifties. So we know that he's he's having

a manpower issue. He's also having quite frankly, command and control issues on the ground, unit cohesion and morale UH and battlefield performance issues in Ukraine by using this largely conscript force that doesn't have the same will to fight that the Ukrainians do and certainly doesn't have the capabilities that they do. We understand that new U N Nuclear inspectors have arrived at the nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine.

This is something that has been long and coming. I know that the US wanted to see this happen, should the US also take part in setting up a demilitarized zone around that plants. Admiral the President has been clear we're not going to have US boots involved in the U S troops since sorry involved in the war in Ukraine, so I see no role for the United States and in creating a demilitarized zone around that power plant. We do want there to be such a demilitarized zone around

that plant. We don't want to see the plant be the scene of combat action. That should never be the case. Uh. And it's the Russians who have militarized upreach a nuclear power plant and we urge and calling them to demilitarize it as quickly as possible. Also, and I'm glad you pointed out that the inspectors are there. We're glad to

see that. We hope that they're given unfettered access, and we look forward to their report about the safety and the operational efficiency of that nuclear power plant, because again, the danger could be so much bigger, not just to the people of Ukraine, but but even to the region. So it's important that those inspectors are given unfettered access, allowed to do their job and to stay as long as they need to stay to be able to report back, and apparently that will be until Saturday. As we read

on the terminal with the inspectors continuing their work. John Kirby, they're speaking to us again from the north lawn of the White House as we reassemble the panel, Bloomberg Politics contributor Rick Davis and Democratic strategist Joel Peen. Uh. Rick, it's almost like you wrote his answer on the status of Russian forces right now, but it really hits home, uh exactly. You know how how challenging this could be actually for Fladomy Putent's forces to go any further in

Ukraine this winter. Yeah, no matter what the disinformation is, just look at what he's having to do to man a military in the field, right, I mean, this was a poorly plan poorly staffed operation to begin with, and now the fact that he has to go out and recruit prisoners and fifty year olds. I remember being of course I felt better than that I do now, But

you know I'm going to war, no, thank you. I don't think I'm ready for that at the moment, and you'd hide from that, right, That's something he's got to do to be able to sustain that that effort in Ukraine, and it's exposing his hand. Well, we've got a situation around this power plant here, Joel. You heard Kirby say that they'd like to have a demilitarized zone, but of course the US can't put the risk of having boots on the ground to help make that happen. How much

of a flashpoint is this going to be? I mean, we get a report from inspectors, but that doesn't mean the Russians are ever going to leave it. I think the President has been clear on what his red lines are around Ukraine. I think ground forces on the ground in Ukraine is a no go right now. And by the way, I think that that's supported by the American people. Um. I think there's a heavy disinterest right now in this

country politically and sending US troops to another country. UM. I do think, however, it's very clear that the President and that his national security team are all in on supporting the Ukrainians. And I do think that that is a good balance, the right balances right right now. If there's a meltdown, though, Rick, I mean, at some point the United States would have to get more involved here.

That it's not only the danger involved with the with the meltdown at the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, but it provides an enormous amount of energy to Ukraine that is already having trouble keeping up with demand based

on what China is, based on what Russia is doing. Yeah, absolutely, any any kind of event that releases radioactive material that plant puts into risk Europe but also Russia itself, right, because that stuff doesn't have borders that they identify, and and so you have to hope that that protecting his own people has to you know, fall into his decision matrix.

But you're right, uh, you know, like the threats of using nuclear weapons and like the threat of of of of weaponizing a nuclear power plant, it does complicate the US ability to keep out of the direct fray and and continue to be the supporter of the Ukrainian people. So will consult obviously with our European allies. But it could create quite an event. But but there's no self interest in his part, right, I mean, like he's got to worry about his own country and the impact of

that nuclear plant, uh, going across border. Rick Davis and Joel Payne will be with us for the hour our panel today on the fastest hour in politics, as we turn back into the US here domestic politics next, and President Biden preparing for a prime time at rest to the nation. Will be joined straight ahead by Lincoln Mitchell, political analyst on the job for Joe Biden. This is Bloomberg, all right, Charlie, thanks for just a few hours away

now eight pm Eastern Time. You'll hear it. You'll see it on Bloomberg TV and radio and of course on your terminal. President Biden in prime time from Philadelphia. This is the big speech. What a wind up we've had. If you look back over the past couple of weeks, and particularly starting a week ago tonight, that was really the warm up here. The President has been testing the ultra Maga lines and so forth, never mind the semi

fascism thing for for the balance of the summer. You're talking about ultra Maga Senator Scott, the Maga agenda and so forth. But it kind of took on a new level last week as the President spoke not only to that fundraiser, but before a hall of supporters in Rockville, Maryland. Republicans don't just threaten our personal rights and economic security They're a threat to our very democracy. They refuse to accept the will of the people. They embrace, embrace political violence.

They don't believe in democracy. This is why, in this moment, those of you who love this country, Democrats, independence, mainstream Republicans, we must be stronger, more determined, and more committed to saving America than the Maga Republicans are destroying America. You wonder if he'll raise his voice like that and use similar language, because this has been kind of, like I said,

a gathering storm from the White House. Karine John Pierre, the Press Secretary, was asked today what we should expect and exactly what the President means calling out Republicans and so called ultra Maga the way that he sees as the maga Republicans are the most energized part of the Republican party. Uh. That extreme. This is an extreme threat to our demorrow, to our freedom, to our rights. Uh. They just don't respect the rule of law. You heard that from the president. Uh, and you know they are

pursuing an agenda that takes away people's rights. We just got excerpts from the speech while I was playing that for you, very brief Maga forces he will say, are determined to take this country backwards to in America where there is no right to choose, no right to privacy, no rights to contraception, and no right to marry who you love. Let's bring in Lincoln Mitchell, Political analyst, adjunct Associate Research Scholar at the Institute of War in Peace

Studies at Columbia University. It's great to have you back, Lincoln. Striking the right tone is awfully important here, as this appears to be the kickoff, if you will, to the general election. Is the president looking in the right direction here? He's not talking about legislative accomplishments. This is a maga speech. That's right, and it's a tough It's a tough balance

he has to strike here. If he were just trying to do, you know, the thing that will help the Democrats the most of the fall, he would stick to abortion rights, gun reform, his recent legislative accomplishments, Katangi Brown, Jackson on the Supreme Court, and the extremism of the Republican Party. But he's not doing that. He's really going and talking about the heart of the problem of the crisis of American democracy in a way that he has not done since really he became a candidate with a

very few exceptions here or there. And that may not be the best political strategy, but it is an essential part of presidential leadership. When the country is threatened on our democracy, is threatened by foreigner domestic forces, the president kind of has to say something. And I think that's what's behind this decision by by the President Biden. Yeah, the White House has made clear through a senior official talking with reporters earlier and will be about twenty five

minutes long. When you approach this Lincoln from a writing standpoint, what do you have in your mind here? Does he need to have a couple of memorable lines that become sound bites after? Is this about a great arc and the speech? What's what's the job for the writer? Well, remember when you think about being a writer, a speech

writer for a politician, you think about who you're writing for. Right, So you would make a very different speech for I don't know what Barack Obama than for Joe Biden on the Democratic side, right, or Donald Trump or George W. Bush or somebody you know. Uh, Biden is not burdened by great oratorical skills, right, This is not mary O Cuomo, if you can make a dated reference, you know, just making some speech that people remember for decades. He Biden

doesn't have that in him. What he is good at is connecting with people and communicating a basic sense of decency. So that's what I would focus on. Come on here, we're Americans in America. When you lose an election, you put your head down and you work harder the next time. You know, messages like that rather than even though as a political scientist in me is perfectly fine with language like this is a thread of fascism, But I don't know that Biden can nail that home the way a

better orator might. Interesting does he stray off the speech? Does he look into the camera drop a classic Biden line? Or is that just too dangerous? Well, you're asking two different questions there. Should he straight off the speech? Yeah? I don't know why I on a on a speech of this nature where he's putting a lot of time and his speechwriters are putting a lot of time several drafts. He should probably stay on on on script. Is he

likely to stray off the speech? It's Joe Biden, So he short answered that is yes, Okay, this is how you know, we we try to figure how you're going to fill the amount of time now is when he's talking about mega Republicans Lincoln. One of the questions that came up in the briefing today if found really interesting at the White House, as he also encourages the involvement of what he likes to refer to as mainstream Republicans.

How does the White House tell the difference or how should Americans interpret this to to draw the line between a maga Republican and a so called mainstream Republican. Are

they wearing different colored T shirts? Or how does this work? Well, what Biden is trying to do is to send a message to a American voter who maybe a Republican may being not registered with with any party, is not a Democrat, and say, listen, if you believe in a government that taxes less and has less involvement in the economy, if you believe that maybe we shouldn't we should have a more traditional conventional view of social issues, you still can't

join in with the Donald Trump's because they fundamentally don't believe in democracy. And to not believe in democracies, to not believe in America. That's where he wants to go with this. The problem is that as an observer looking at Republican election primary returns and things like that, the distinction between Maga Republicans and mainstream Republicans is one without a difference, and we see this in many Republican primaries.

I'll just point to the one in Georgia for the U. S. Senate, which occurred a little while ago, with herschel Walker, as you know, won the nomination. Herschel Walker is an altar of Maga guy. I think we would all agree on that. But David Perdue is also a MAGA guy, right, And and there's this. I think the punditry and the mainstream of the Democratic Party desperately wants to say they're not

all Donald Trump, not all Marga, but marga. The MAGA movement has captured the Republican Party, and I can't quite come out and say that they're right exactly. These are some fine lines, Lincoln, Great to talk to you again. Lincoln Mitchell joining us from the Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University. We'll play this to the panel next. Rick Davis, we'll have his input here as well as Joel Payne, Democratic strategists, with us for the

hour on Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew and Washington. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. As America waits to hear from the president or is it I don't know, primetime presidential address? Does it mean what it used to? Will see how the president uses it. Of course, as we discussed here on sound On, it will be cut up ten ways to Sunday, and it'll be all over social media before the President is even back in Washington, so

people will receive this in various ways of course. Here on Bloomberg starts eight pm Eastern Time, Bloomberg TV and Radio. As we reassemble the panel for more on this, Rick Davis and Joel Payne are with us today. Bloomberg Politics contributor, Republican strategist Rick Davis, Democratic strategist Joel Paine, former director of African American advertising for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. Joel, what do you want to hear as a Democrat from

this president tonight? Do you want to hear about Ultra Maga or do you want to hear about accomplishments made in the Democratic led Congress. You know, I think speeches all have different utilities based on the moment that we're in and what the end goal is. I think it's pretty clear to me, Joe, you actually said this earlier

year conversation with Lincoln. This to me sounds like it's a predicate for and I think the president, um, if you'll remember when he decided to jump in the primary and twenty nineteen for he talked about the battle for the soul of the country. It feels like an interesting bookmark that that conversation that he jumped into their I think he's you or a forwarding that conversation now. And I do think that it's going to lay out the

rationale for potentially another Biden tournament. Why it's important to push back on the anti democratic moves and some republic Does it compromise Joe Biden's image though, of of being you know, the compromiser in chief, of being the bipartisan who knows and used to be friends with all these Republicans and can actually you know, cut through the partisanship and get things done. That was a big reason why a lot of people voted for him in can he

still make that claim? Well, Joe, when you say all these Republicans and actually, again I was listening to your previous conversation, I do think he's trying to drive a wedge in the Republican Party between these major Republicans and the mainstream Republicans. I think there's about fift the Republican Party that the president feels like he can reach. That's

the audience for speech like this and so um. I actually think it's very strategic for the president to try to separate the folks on the Republican Party into people who believe in democracy and those who don't. People who we can work with and who care about the greater good of the country, and those who don't. I think that's what he's doing here tonight. What do you think, Rick, is Joe Biden demand to split to divide the Republican Party at this time? You know, I don't think he's

gonna be the man to divide the Republican Party. I actually thought he had a much better opportunity after he won the presidency to actually legitimately reach out to Republicans and try to bring him into the administration. Um, but they didn't write. I mean, they're really no high profile

Republican appointees other than Cindney McCain. And so the reality is that there's not going to be a bipartisan initiative in the next two years because it does look like there's going to be a potentially split government and nothing's gonna hit done on Capitol Hill like it did this year. So he's already booked some good success with bipartisanship. Now it's now it's about the stakes of this election. I don't I don't think it's four. I think it's two.

I think that Democrats have some medal in their back on you know, really taking a hard shot at trying to keep the House. And the more Democrats I talked to, the more I'm not it's not talking points. I think they really believe it. And so it isn't a bad platform.

You know, when you say I'm going to talk about the soul of our country democracy to say this is the stakes of the election, it gets bigger, right, and by the way Republicans care about democracy to you know, all the recent polls show that this is something that's starting to divide our party and and yet I do think he wants to put the context bigger than just his legislative achievements. He wants to be about the future

of our country as a democracy. If Ricky flagged the new Quinnipiac Pole with sixty seven percent thinking democracy is in danger of collapse, that is a massive majority. It's a massive majority. And it's up just under ten percent since January. So this is getting worse. It's January, yeah, worse than January. And so the reality is that that he had, you know, as president. This is something Joe

Biden had addressed in the past as a candidate. As president, he I think feels compelled that this is his job. I think he's a true believer in this regard and he sees this as a major difference with Donald Trump and the MAGA crowd. And by the way, Magat is Donald Trump. If Donald Trump were gone tomorrow, there would know there would be virtually nothing of a MAGA movement. It would be like, you know, some of the old caucuses that we used to have that caused so much

trouble for Republicans in the in the House. You know what else this poll found this Quinnipiac Pole. Joel is the president's rising approval rating. Now we have to we have to put this in perspective. He came in at fort but it's up from only thirty one percent six weeks ago. Uh SOVET eight right now is pegging the number at forty two percent when you look at a couple of different polls here, do you celebrate a move like that or is this still a problem that he's

underwater this close to the mid terms. Oh, Joe, I'm a Democrat. We we liked the Meyer in our old self doubt right, I mean, we got it. Do Look, I do think the trend lines are pointing in the right direction for the President and Democrats. And that's what I think about with pulling. It's less about the snapshot of the moment. It's more about where the arrow is pointed, and it's pointing in the right direction. One, the President is getting back to talking how the American people are

used to hearing him. But also there's accomplishments. There's real things at the end of the summer that he and his allies and Congress were able to put forth and put in front of the American people as tangible good um you know, returns on the promises of the president made, and so I think you're certainly going to see that. By the way, the biggest jump, it looks like it's from Democrats. The President was very low or pretty low

comparatively with Democrats. I think he was in the seventies in a previous pull and that stuff over that's where he's making up. Brown. I have to ask you both about what happened last night in Alaska. This is the latest special election member we had new York. This one was to fill the seat held by the late Congressman Don Young. Did you hear who lost? I am a mama grizzly and all rear up on my high legs

when somebody comes after my cubs. Yeah, Sarah Palin lost to the Democrat Mary Peltola in this special last night. Rick Davis, Uh, Sarah Palin will live and apologies in advance of this whole conversation. She will live on to fight another election in November. This is a short term deal. But what does it tell us in the wake of

the special in New York about Republican prospects in the fall? Yeah, look, I mean it's it's actually I think just as much about what's going on with rank order voting, right, because this was a quite an election rank choice voting. It's an unusual election at regard. But look, I mean you could argue that there was a little bit of uplift for for Mary in In in the contest. But look, most of the polling I've seen around a November election that will go through this all over again, is that

that that this could wind up. Nick Eggage was the first one out in this rank order, ranked choice voting, and and he may he may wind up be in the winter out of the next go round, because Sarah Palin may come in third in the current polling that I've seen around November. So this thing is a bit like a craps game, right, you just keep building on numbers until your crap out. And and I'm not a fan of rank choice voting. Yeah, well, I mean it's interesting.

I think jury is out and I think that the idea that a uh, significantly read state now has a Democrat member of Congress representing the entire state is kind of novel. We're going to see how how people in Alaska like that. Dave Wasserman at the Cook Political Report tweeted Joel that Democrats in the House, just increase their land mass by a hundred and four percent and one

special election, because it is Alaska we're talking about. But uh, you know, speaking of ranked choice voting, I don't know if you heard or saw this video as a very brief video that was captured by somebody's cell phone of Sarah Palin when she had learned she lost and she was incredulous. If you listens very brief, sol, you know, that's all we have on that. But I won't get into a debate with you about ranked choice voting. I just wonder how much Alaskans hold against Sarah Palin, the

fact that she quit when she was governor. Candidates matter, Um, Local storylines, parochial issues matter. Um, you're you're you know. Obviously we're a big audience in New York. Lots of people know about those special elections and those primaries in New York a few weeks ago, where those local issues kind of took precedent over the national storyline. So UM, I don't know if the story here is ranked choice voting. I think it's about kind of the local legacy of

Sarah Palin in Alaska. She was not the most beloved figure in that state by the time she departed that state and interternational scene, and I think that might have a lot more to do with it than m process, which I think Republicans be careful that they are poking holes the process every time they don't like an outcome. Rick, was the Trump endorsement help for a hindrance for uh, well, obviously didn't help her enough, right and right, And so I'm not sure. I'm not sure how much of an impact.

I mean, she was already going to get all those Trump voters that that we're willing to vote for Sarah Palin, right, I mean, if anything, I think her image in Alaska is much bigger than Donald Trump's image in Alaska and and and equally divisive. Right, So, I mean, you know, I don't think I don't think he could help her hurt her in Alaska. She's a She's a bigger personality than he is. With that electric Do you have a thought on her chances in November? You know, look, I

think they're limited. I mean right now, you know, when I look at the polling data going into November, you know she's she's third, and if she's third, she's first out. And so the question is where her votes go, Probably the Republican I doubt if any of her votes are going to go with a Democrats. So it's a completely different election. Uh, just happens to be the same people. Great panel, Rick, thank you as always, Rick Davis, of course,

Bloomberg Politics contributor and Republican strategist Joel Payne. Great to have you, Joel. I hope you'll come back and talk to us soon, be part of the program again. Former director of African American advertising for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. The fastest hour in politics. You're ready now for the speech tonight, maybe even the cocktail party beforehand. Don't you feel smarter? That's why we do this every day on Bloomberg.

And we'll meet again tomorrow where it is. Labor Secretary Marty Walsh will be among those joining us on Jobs Day, and I look forward to that conversation. In the meantime, check out the speech tonight, will dissect everything and analyze it with our panel tomorrow from Washington. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg