Sound On: NY Bellwether Race, Obama Campaigns in Arizona

the Viking helmet, but he was there. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio five days to the elections. Welcome to the fastest hour in politics, says We zero in on a Bell Weather in the Hudson Valley, New York that we'll all be watching next Tuesday night. With both candidates on board. Congressman Pat Ryan, who won a special election after the Supreme Court ruled on Roe v. Wade.

Now in a re drawn district, facing Republican Colin Schmidt, we talk issues with both the D and the R. Back to back interviews. New polling chose Republicans could flip the Senate seat of New Hampshire, Don Baldock debated Senator Maggie Hassan last night. We're gonna talk about it with Chris Galdery, professor of politics at St Anselm College in New Hampshire. They ran the numbers and hosted the debate.

And as Barack Obama makes his way to Arizona, now on behalf of Democrats will have analysis from our signature paneled Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Genie Chanzano are with us for the hour. Pat Ryan made a big splash when he won a special election in New York Hudson Valley because it was right after the Supreme Court

ruling on row. This is back in August. He's now in a redrawn eighteenth district where he's facing Republican Colin Schmidt, and he joins us now on Bloomberg as we welcome both candidates back to back on the program, starting with Congressman Ryan, thanks for joining us, Well, thank you for having me. Well, they're calling your race a bell weather for the nation, that that you're the canary in the political coal mine? Is that how you see it? Uh?

You know, I am extremely focused here on the ground across the three counties I'm hoping to continue to represent. So I haven't really been following some of the national stuff, but certainly our race in in August, our special election was a national referendum on standing up for democracy, reproductive rights, fighting for economic relief. And we surprised a lot of uh, you know, the experts and pundits in winning that race, and I feel good that that momentum is certainly building

for us. Even more closely watched, of course, because you know, this was right after the Scotus ruling. Your primary win was given a big boost by the fallout of of Roe v. Wade. That special happened in August. Congressman posters say the issue was running now far behind things like the economy and crime. Will it help decide this race again? For you? Unequivocally, it is one of the It's not the only issue, of course, but it is one of

the most salient issues. People are rightly outraged that fellow Americans fundamental rights and freedoms were ripped away, and we've seen the far right double down and actually call for a nationwide abortion ban, uh, even in the case of rape and incests and threats to the life of a mother. My opponent is one of those extreme folks. So standing up for that right and other rights and delivering economic relief,

those are the two main thrust of our campaign. Uh and and I think that really meets the moment of where people's concerns are. Well, you probably saw this new Wall Street Journal poll out today getting a lot of talk because it shows a big swing and sentiment among so called suburban white women, half of whom now think the Republican Party, as I read, has a better economic plan to make life easier for people like them. And

that's up from the same poll in August. Not only at that point favored Republicans approach with everything you just said, can you win without suburban women? Well, I think the important caveat here is no offense to posters. But they just always wrong. I mean, I mean, it certainly is. In my case. No poll before our special election in August had me winning that race. There were dozens of them. They all said we're gonna lose. Every single one of them was wrong. And I just think that we can't

over read the polls. Of course, folks are focused on the economy. They were focused on it in our August special election. They're continuing to focus on it. We saw overwhelming support across all political parties, women and men on in all generations, because we stood up in a positive, constructive way and said we're going to deliver relief. You know, for example, I cut our county gas tax and half I cut our property tax as the lowest level in

forty years. We provided millions in small business relief that matters, that connects, that actually helps people. Republicans right now, certainly at the national level especially, asked them what their actual plan is to address rising costs, and all the best you're gonna hear is a tax for the ultra wealthy, which is not what the country needs right now. President Biden would have won this new district by nine points in which is even more favorable for you than the

nine district that you won in the special. We saw the President make a visit to Poughkeepsie this month. You were at his side. A lot has happened, though since have the politics of the last two years changed the views of people in places like Orange or Duchess County. What do they tell you, Yeah, an awful lot has happened. That's for sure, and I think everybody feels that we we are more politically divided, uh, and that there's less

and less trust in government to actually deliver. I was a local elected official before serving in Congress now, and my main focus was how do we deliver tangible helps to people in mental health and infrastructure, in environmental protection

in order to rebuild trust. And so when you have the President United States show up to the Huston Valley the first time a president's been here in decades and and announced a twenty billion dollar commitment to bring back quantum computing and semi computing jobs back to where IBM was the thriving heart of our economy. That is a huge deal to tangibly deliver and help both immediately and

over the next ten to twenty years. That's what we've been been doing across the board, in addition to lowering costs, lowing prescription drug costs, capping insulin costs. I mean again, I think actions speak louder than words in terms of how hard Democrats have been fighting to deliver that. In

actions include showing up in person. You know that you hear this this narrative around the country that a lot of democratic candidates don't want to appear with President Biden that he hasn't been at a lot of uh, you know, in a lot of bell Weather states where we have closely contested races. But you stood with him in pick Keepsie. Does that help your campaign? I was proud to welcome

the President. One. I respect him personally, and I also respect the office of the presidency regardless of who's in it. And too, he was here to deliver for the community, which is our job. So when anybody comes and wants to deliver and help the community that I represent, I'm going to proudly stand with them, uh and do everything I can to to build on that. And Yeah, I don't know why others sort of shy away. I think that sometimes we get lost in the punditry and the politics.

At the end of the day, if you're going to deliver help, um you are. You are welcome with open arms here in our community because we need help. President issued a pretty stark morning last night to voters. Uh. And it's not the first time he says democracy is on the ballot? Is that which you're actually hearing congressmen from voters in the midst of this time of inflation

this time of war. And I ask you that because you seem to sort of veer away from the national narratives and speak about local issues in our conversation so far, Well, we have to do both. I mean, I graduated from

West Point, I served twenty seven months in combat. I took an oath to support and defend our constitution from enemies foreign and domestic, and to grapple personally with the fact that some of the great the threats to our constitution are right here in America, from election deniers, from people who stormed our capital. That has to be a

bright red line. And I don't care who you are, what party you're from, what state you're from, if you won't uphold that core tenant of our democracy of free and fair elections, you need to be held accountable to the fullest extent. And um, I'm proud that the President is calling that out. And I do hear to your question. I hear from a lot of people, and UH poles nationally have shown threats to democracy are now at or near the top of people's concerns consistently for for weeks

and months. And I'm you know, I'm I'm running in great part because I'm worried and we have to have people who believe in it and want to fight to make it better. But a lot of talk about political violence, certainly since the attack on Paul Pelosi, But as you know, it goes back much further than that, as we consider the attack on Steve Scalise, Uh in many others over

the past couple of years. Gabby Giffords, this goes back years in years, Congressman, I wonder, how do you consider your own safety right now if you've been enduring threats on the campaign trail, and and do you think lawmakers should have their own security details? I mean, number one, it's just sad that we have to even have these conversations, and it reflects the increasingly divisive rhetoric which is all for personal political gains by selfish people, and that that

outrages me. Uh And I had to have a conversation with my wife about we have two young kids. For the first time I have a conversation about securing our home. Going back to what I learned as an army officer of you know, a safety a security plan to to defend a position, which is my own home in my own community where I grew up. So we've got to we've got to do better than this um and and certainly upping security is is a small part of it,

but it's so much deeper than that. And uh, I just think we have to remind people that we've got to remind people of our better angels. As President Lincoln so famously said Thomas from pat Ryan, I appreciate your spending some time with us on a busy day on the trail, and thank you for your service. Oh, thank you for having me and I really enjoyed the time. Thanks.

We turned out of Congressman Ryan's opponent, Colin Schmidt, is a Republican member of the New York Assembly, serves in the Army National Guard, and he joins our conversation now. Mr Schmidt, welcome to Bloomberg. Thanks for having me on.

I really appreciate it. Well. As I discussed with Congressman Pat Ryan, the nation is watching your race as a bit of a microcosm here, especially after the special that that he won in the district next door in August that that was framed as a classic battle of issues as opposed to a lot of the cultural stuff that's been going on in this country in this case inflation

versus abortion. Is this race you're in now any different this? Uh, this race in November is going to be starkly different than that special election, a different time period or its occurring, but nearly a completely different district. And the issues that are playing out here are the economy and crime. That is the main two issues. They're they're almost tied in importance to the voters when we hear about it crime, economy, economy, crime,

over and over and over again. Uh. Those are the issues that are impacting people on their day to day lives. And it's nearly the unanimous level that we hear of concern are on those two issues at doors and phone calls at events. Have done over two fifty something thousand voter compacts now since June, and the overwhelming responses continue to be on those issues. So let's ask you about inflation, which is important to us and something we talked about

a lot here. Your opponents stood with President Biden and keeps you this month that's out this new IBM investment to talk about the inflation Reduction Acts lowering drug prices. The President says that that if Republicans take the House, they'll repeal that law. Is he right? The President's decided to come here to tout the Inflation Act that they

passed after inflation hit another record high. And you know, my opponent is not offered a solution other than to keep spending money, keep spending federal money, which has gotten us here in the first place. So the biggest issue when it comes to this inflation crisis, which we have signed on at the Commitment to America with the new House Republican majority, is to get the out of control spending.

We gotta we gotta get that in control. Over almost ten sillion dollars in the last two years under the Biden administration. House Democrats the main cooler of this inflationary crisis. We now see it rippling, with the interest rates continuing to increase. Just this week. It's pricing people out of homes, it's driving rents through the roof. The ripple effects of this continued to be substantial, continued to touch every resident

of this district. And the President everything he's done has exasperated. Everything Pat Ryan has done is exasperated, and we want to get it under control when we take over the probably saw this New Wall Street Journal poll out today, it's not on your race. It's a national poll showing sentiment, a young sentiment among suburban white women turning more Republican. Half of suburban white women now tell this poll that the Republican Party has a better economic plan to make

life easier for them. And if that's up from thirty five just in August, you're the one talking with voters out on the trail here is inflation more important to to suburban white women than the right of choice. I'd say the biggest issue that we hear, particularly from from families and from moms, is the economic impact that they are facing. We have the cost of gas, the cost of food in particular, is is really unsustainable for many

many families. We we have had reached out to my office numerous people already going back to the fuel cost, energy costs of home heatings that they're not even able to fully build their tank um or that they do there, they can't afford to food, and now they're making a choice do we eat or do we keep ourselves warm and our family is warm. That's not a Republican or Democrat issue. If you're a mother, if if you're a father, and you're being faced with are we gonna be warmer

or or a cold, or hungry or full? Is that that transcends I think yeah, any kind of general political leaning. Just that's a basic instinct to provide for your family and for yourself. So so you don't see abortion as a as a viable issue in this campaign. This issue is about the economy and then the safety issues of crime and supportful l I want to ask you speaking of safety, and I asked Congressman Ryan about this. The President issued a stark warning to voters last night. He

says democracy is on the ballot. He pointed to political violence, the attack against Paul Pelosi. Of course, we've talked about the attack against Steve Skalie and what happened on January six. The nation's head is spinning when it comes to this stuff. Do you believe that lawmakers should have more security? Do you find yourself or your family under threat as someone who's running for public office. I think that obviously, political

violence of any type against anyone is completely unacceptable. It must be condemned in the strongest terms. And we need to ensure that the right uh measures of security are available for for anyone. Um you know who's serving the public.

Particularly what we see here in the Hudson Valley is a true public safety concerned UH globally where just a few weeks ago in this congressional district, we had five shootings in a single weekend, including a college father who is visiting for a family weekend at a college shot getting coffee in his hotel and killed. We have so many commuters in this district, particularly going to New York City, men and women who reached out to me that they're scared to go to work. We had not heard, and

I think this is the voters have not heard. The public has not heard from our governor, from the president, from officials saying we want to make things safer for you. We want to hire more police, we want to make sure you haven't The president he says to fund the police. He said that in his State of the Union address. UM, but it's also been reported, and I'd love for you

to have an opportunity to tell our listeners. It's it's been reported that you rallied with folks who went to the capital on January six, the head of their trip to d c UH. Did you have any sense of what was going to happen? That data. You will regret your association with them. This is a debunk lie that's continued to be sued by the Democrat National Committee and my opponent Pat Ryan. January six, I was invited, as I've been many times, to address Orange County Rights to Life,

a faith based organization. It's all volunteers, senior citizens, local family. You addressed them fairly frequently. They asked me on my inauguration day, the day that I was being sworn in, to address issues that were coming up on the first day of legislative session. In all but nobody in that group had anything to do with any violence or anything that happened that day at all, and theyre continued to be smeared. They were not at the capitol and nothing

to do with anything like that. This is why we're smeared and our opponent deserve These people deserve an apology from my opponent, and anyone who did do anything wrong, which is no affiliation with these individuals, must be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Assemblymen, Colin Schmidt, he's the Republican candidate in New York's eighteenth district. Thank you for being with us on Bloomberg. Thank you for

having me. I appreciate and we assemble our panel now as always, Rick Davis and Jeannie Chanzano make our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors who somehow brings sense to all of this every day. It's great to have you both here. I thought it was important to have both candidates, you know, not trying to gin up a debate here, but have

two adjacent interviews talking essentially along the same lines. They really tried to sort of frame the questioning of for for one interview the same as the next here and talk about issues because Genie in New York and you live in New York. That's what that special election was was kind of heralded for the fact that it was about policy, that it was about issues more than cultural differences. Do you feel like that's the same this time around. Well,

you're so right there. Everybody is watching this race to see if it is, as you mentioned, a microcosm or rebell weather as to what's to come across the rest of the nation, and you know, it's it's very close to where I live and work, and it is one that you know, we really don't have a very good sense where to go where it's going to go. We don't have enough polling directly of the district, and so

we rely on these national polls. But of course these races are choices between two candidates, and that's why it's so great to hear from both of them. You know, pat Ryan is a very very um charismatic and successful and you know, he really shocked the nation with his race or the nineteenth and then to have to turn around a few a few months later and run again against a formidable component in Colin Schmidt, who's known in

the district. So it's gonna be a close race. And I think the real question is what issues win the day here. But you know they are both talking about well Ryan's talking more about abortion than Schmidt, but they're both focused on the economy. I hear it. And of course Ryan is out rayed Schmidt three point for a million about to one point eight million, So he's got

a cash advantage for sure. Rick. You look at this district, this eighteenth districts, and the five thirty eight average of poles has pat Ryan winning uh slightly favored sixty nine out of a hundred. Of the odds they paid thirty two out of a hundred for Schmidt. Did the issues that will drive the decisions bubble up there? I mean, is this really you don't want to oversimplify this too much? Like Pat Ryan said, there's room for more than one issue in a campaign, but a lot of folks have

framed this as inflation for his abortion. Yeah, I mean, I think what you're talking about where the drivers in the issue? Right? There are a lot of issues that are going to cut in these campaigns. What's driving to vote? And I thought the point you made about suburban white women, uh, you know, flipping from August, you know, around the time Pat Ryan was elected or plus plus twelve for Democrats to being now plus fifteen for GOP. That is a

really big move and that's all about the economy and inflation. Well, Jennie, you'd start talking about I mean, you've made the point. You live there. Do you buy those numbers? That was a little bit of a weird sample, I want to be clear, in that Wall Street Journal polls, a small sample had a big margin of error to see a move that big among a group that may well decide the balance of power here in Washington. Never mind the winner of this particular race is significant. It's significant, but

I was going to go right there. We're talking about a very small subsample at you know, a hundred and fifty voters with a margin of ERA plus or minus eight percent. That's enormous. When you're talking these poles and time they try to dig down like this, it's very tough to get a good read. I think the most we could say is there has been movement amongst this group, just like the rest of the country, increasing focus on cost of living inflation as the numbers get worse, quite frankly,

so that's real. The sleeper issue here is the one that Schmidt mentioned. It is crime. I'm telling you, living in New York, that is what you hear about more often than not. Democrats winning on abortion, it's about Republicans winning on the economy. But it's the crime and Democrats are trying to make a move on that. And the question is too little, too late, It's unclear, but New Yorker is very concerned about the rate of crime, even if the numbers don't support it. They're feeling that way,

and Republicans are talking about it. Pat Ryan is a combat veteran, as you know, from the War in Iraq rick uh. And in fact, Colin Schmidt is is actively serving. UH. He shouldn't use the word actively. What's serving in the Army National Garden. You know, he's doing his weekend and doing his dy as well, and we thank him for

his service. I just wonder if that part of the story, seeing a congressman like Pat Ryan with a combat veteran background, you know, part of a growing class actually of veterans who are who are coming back to serve in the House, is meaningful to voters in New York or if that's something that kind of goes right by you know. Look, I think having a commitment to your country and serving UM in the military, whether it's in the reserves or active duty, is a strong bond with your community. Right.

It is your willingness to sacrifice a career, a family, um education in order to do that. And so as a baseline, I think it's great. As a differentia between two candidates, both of them are in the service. I don't think it makes any difference. I did think in your interview Pat Ryan did a very nice jobum weaving that into his narrative about you know, having an oath of office and UH and so it's just my own observation is he's he's playing that up more than than

college meant did in your interview. Does it resonate in Hudson Valley, New York? Geniy? It does? And of course West Point is on the Hudson River in their it's in the district, beautiful place to visit, absolutely amazing school, you know, no question, but yeah, it resonates there because you've got a lot of people who live and work in a family connections to West Point and other military UH affiliations in this area. So I think it does. It does ref you know, does resonate in that way?

Great talk with Rick and Genie, they're here all our of course, our signature panel on the Fastest Hour in Politics coming up. We turned to New Hampshire's quite a debate last night, Senator Maggie Hasson fighting for her political life against Don Baldock. And there are some incredible polling numbers. You don't believe them when you first read them. This

race is changing as we speak. We're going to go to st Ansom College and talk to an expert in Chris Calgary coming up, and we'll reassemble our panel right here on blue work sound on the situation we were talking about nationally over the past several days. Republican momentum and polls is the case apparently as well in New Hampshire Granite State not an exception, as we see in

new numbers from st Anselm College. The Survey Center out with just a remarkable set of numbers yesterday showing that Don Baldock now leads the incumbent, Mackie Hasson, the Democrat, as Hasson's favorability drops and Baldock's improves. This goes on as you look down ballot, and it was the backdrop for a debate last night at st Anselm, the final

debate televised between the incumbent and her Republican challenger. Here, Senator Maggie hasn't last August saying he stood by that letter, saying it was stolen and he wasn't switching horses, baby. That was I think the exact quote. He then has begun to cast out on the two elections now, saying that there will be ballot dumps in the middle of the night and referencing bus loads of unqualified, ineligible voters

coming to our poles. He hasn't going after Don Baldock for his history as an election denier, but of course that's something. Remember It's like the day after the primary he went on Fox News and said, no, I looked into it. Joe Biden won the election. Then it kind of went back around a few more times. He was asked about it last night. Was the election stolen or not?

And why does your answer keep changing? Well, it doesn't keep changing, right, I have been consistent about it up to the point you just you just gave an accurate analysis, and I have said on fourteen September it was not stolen. That's it. I'm not discussing it anymore. Okay. Then Christopher Galdieri joins us. He's been in the middle of this as a professor of politics at the were mentioned st Anselm College in New Hampshire. And it's great to have

you here, Chris, it's been a while. Welcome to Bloomberg Radio. You show as well that Caroline Levitt Republican challenger pulling ahead of Representative Chris Pappas. What's going on in New Hampshire. Um, I think a lot of what's going on is that Republican voters are coming home to Republican candidates, even ones who have you know who are who were not the party's first choice for the party leadership's first choice. Um.

As the election draws near. So I think a lot of Republicans who might have had reservations about Don Bullbock, for instance, um, now that the election is what five six days away, Um, they're putting those reservations aside. You know, he's gotten support from folks like Chris SNeW the states perfectly normal Republican governor um to uh to uh to vote for him. Um. And And so I think that's means these this race is a lot sighter than a lot of people thought it would be when Baltock won

the nomination. Well, that's for sure, My goodness, Mitch McConnell kind of abandoned the state. He abandoned the race because he wanted your your perfectly normal governor Chris and Nunu to run for this seat. Republicans had really turned away from it and said, well, you know, so much for flipping the Senate. But my goodness, a couple of months makes a big difference here, Chris, doesn't it It does? And I also think you have to look at that in the context of some of the other candidates you've

got in the country. You know, like when you've got herschel Walker down in Georgia. God knows what's going to happen in that race, but it's clearly not going to be a slam dunk for either party. Um. I think Republicans started looking around, Well, Buldock was, you know, compared to say, you know, your JD. Vances and your herschel Walker is a comparatively um, you know, not mainstream exactly candidate, but looked a little bit like a state for beet

than some of those folks. When you consider Maggie Hassan's tenure here, Christ, do you have a story to tell us an incumbent that's supposed to be a pretty powerful position to be in here as a US Senator Don Balda comes out of nowhere with no money, uh, and it's about to pull this off. Apparently, what is she telling voters? Well, she's running hard on her records, her background, um, not just as as senator and governor, but as the mother of a son with special needs, and that led

her into politics in the first place. She's been doing the standard incumbent um tactic of talking about constituent service. What she's done for local business is what she's done for the state's veterans. Um and and this is pretty much in keeping with hass In style. You know, she is a very focused, very disciplined campaigner. She has the message that she wants to hit in a given debate or a given speech or a given event. Uh, and

she hits it over and over and over again. And it's one of those things that usually works pretty well right up until the point that it doesn't. So I think the question, um is whether this is the year that that it's just not enough or does she pull this out? I mean, because um, that's you know, when you're talking about polls. I think that's um, you know, kind a coin flip at this point. Um So, Chris, I bet your classes are wild lately. Chris Calderia, I

appreciate you come back and see as soon. Professor of Politics at st Anselm College in New Hampshire, of course, the center of the political universe, Rick Davis. You know New Hampshire. They love John McCaine up in New Hampshire. How did Don Baldock pull this off with local Republicans? Well, part of it was he did what Dundald that John McCain did. He did you know over seventy town halls and New Hampshire. It's loved their town halls. We proved that to be a winning formula. And Uh, he put

himself out there in front. Uh, And I'm sure he got grilled with questions, but I guess his answers were enough to convince people that they were going to give him a second look. And I think it's exactly what uh, you were just talking about. You know, Republicans had a lot of questions some Republicans about Bulldock and and the fact that you know, part of the establishment sort of came around and embraced him. Check that box and you

see that now solidifying. Um, it's a it's a real amazing thing because of course, you know, Bulldock was the Republican Democrats thought they could beat the most and actually helped him get the nomination by putting money into his campaign. And now it looks like he's going to turn the tables on him. Well. Of course, pulling off a leading the polls is one thing. Can he actually pull off

a win? Will ask Genie Chanzano next? This we continue with our signature panel on Bloomberg Sound On, and we'll move to Rick's favorite state of Arizona, where Barack Obama touchdown last night to talk about deniers the same time Joe Biden was talking about it in d C. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg. You sound on with

Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. When you see numbers move this much, this fast, you have to wonder what's going on, Although it does track with the momentum we've been talking

about zeroing in today on Bloomberg. Sound on the State of New Hampshire, or at least this part of the hour, with these numbers we were discussing from st Anselm, with the panel showing Republicans across the board in New Hampshire on the rise, their pole standings on the rise, their favorability is on the rise, while unfavorable for the Democrats

also continue to rise. The one exception tends to be represented Annie Custer, who is leading her Republican opponent by eight points, but the Senator Maggie Hassan now trailing Don Baldock. We reassemble the panel with Rick Davis and Gen Chanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Uh, what is the poster inside? You tell you, Genie at this point when you see numbers change this much and so quickly, not unlike the white suburban women number, we saw a move in the Wall

Street Journal poll. But on a state level, this is a surging Republican party, it is, And unlike when you're talking about a subsample like white suburban women or any others, this is statewide. And so this does, I think, show that Republicans have taken a look. They may have been nervous about Baldock and some of these others, and with Democrats supporting and pushing him through to the nomination, but they are, to Chris's point, seemed to be returning home

to a normal position. And I think that's what made the debate last night so important. There was still by the sinance on poll, someone decided, and the question was did Maggie Hassan do enough to keep them with her essentially or were they just going to go back to the Republican And I have to say, watching that debate last night, it was not a great performance by Maggie Hassan.

She seemed loyally scripted, methodical. She played into everyone of baldock stereotypes of her as an insider establishment versus him as the outsider. It was a really really difficult performance for her, and he really seemed to get more and more aggressive and have more fun as the night went on, got under her skin, and it was not a good ending for her at all. She had the one good night good line about that you played at the at the top about his election denial story and tying him

to the Trump endorsement. But besides that, she was not answering questions and he kept calling her out on that and being an insider in Washington. So tough for her last night. His performance, Rick is has he been learning on the trail? He did seem to uh to have some control of the conversation and was disciplined on Hey, I'm an outsider, I'm not a politician. Yeah. I think that playing the outsider card was an effective tool for him. Uh,

he is an outsider. He's not a polished politician. He doesn't have all those kinds of spin moves that uh Jane was just saying about Senator Hassan and and look, we got to remind herselves she was one of the most vulnerable Democrats going into this cycle, very unpopular in her own home state. She was in the category of anybody could beat her. Now we're actually seeing anybody could beat her. Uh. As you say, elections still gotta happen.

But this is one that even McConnell got wrong, and he's not used to, you know, admitting that he might have blinked when he shouldn't have. Onto Arizona. This is the latest stop on the national tour by the former president Barack Obama. These are events that Joe Biden might otherwise beholding, but this is the climate that we're in.

What he was really going after deniers last night and his look, we've discussed a lot of the candidates, a lot of the Republican candidates in Arizona are deniers with you, the governor carry Lake, uh, candidates for attorney General and Secretary of State. And he was going for less. This opponent, another election denier, exaggerated his experience, made anti cemented comments. Adrian's opponent was at the cop was at the capitol

on January six. He was actually there. I mean he might not have been the guy with the Viking helmet, but he was there. Has ties to far right anti government militia. Come on, people, Sena was perfectly fine for people to spend ballot drop boxes Karen Weapons. This is the guy, this is the Barack Obama we're seeing on the stump, this incredulous former president who doesn't seem to have much to lose here at this point. But Genie, is he helping or hurting? What's the impact of this?

He is having some fun out there, and it is a rallising rally that because we're not getting him from the president, we're getting him from the former president. You know. I think he's doing everything he can to drum up the base, and in an election that was looking like it's going to be very close, that may be very helpful.

His message is strong, and he has been on point, and he underscored what Joe Biden was saying last night in a much more um, you know, entertaining, if you will, stylistically probably appetizing way um that election deniers are on the ballot and democracy may not survive in Arizona if they elect this slate of Republican candidates. Well, you know Arizona as well as anyone when it comes to politics here, Rick, who is who what what is the slice of the

electorate in Arizona. Who's going to react to that and vote for a Democrat or is this a waste of time? You know, Look, I mean the county, Americopa County, one of the largest in the country. UM, really controls most of the election outcomes in the last you know, two decades. Uh and and we've talked about them earlier in this show.

You know, Uh, suburban women are the swing within Maricopa County, and so will suburban women see Kerry Lake Lake, the Republican challenger and an election denier in the past, uh as someone that they can park their vote on because of economic issues, because of some of these cultural issues, especially those that affect schools. Um or even on the border issues. UH. I do think Carry Lake has made in effective use of talking about fent and all, you know,

coming through the border and affecting everybody's community. That is a big deal in Arizona. Uh and and and it's not just the Trump line on the border, it's it's a little more nuanced. So UM, she's gonna win rural votes uh and uh and most of the city votes are gonna go to Katie hobbs her opponent, and these suburban women are going to make up the difference to that's how Joe Biden won in a decidedly red state last time. And and if carry Lake is gonna win,

she's gonna need them to bring him home. Well, he was having some fun with carry Lake last evening. I don't know if if anybody you know I sit around and watch these speeches instead of having a life here. But I I didn't know about this, so some people don't know this. But apparently carry Lake actually interviewed me back in when I was present. She was a local news anchor. She was doing her job. I have to admit, uh, I don't have, you know, clear memory of the interview.

It's a little fuzzy, but I do know this. At the time, I don't remember are thinking that she was the kind of person who would push debunked COVID remedies or a promise the issue a declaration of invasion at our border, or claim without any evidence that election was stolen. But of course they weren't talking about carry Lake. Then they were talking about Barack Obama, and I thought, my gosh, well that's got to still be around, right Thank God for the Internet. There it is the carry lake inside

there in the White House. You know they they'll do this stuff where they have like local reporters day, or at least they used to back then. Do they still do that, Matt the Biden. Yeah, and you know it's like the highlight of their careers. Of course, it would be your invite to the White House. You get five minutes or less with the president. This is a carry

like Fox ten Phoenix. If the election were tomorrow, it's a rite in ballot and your vote decides it who is Well, look, obviously I'm gonna be voting for the Democratic but if if you write in whoever you want, maybe somebody who's not even run, if you could choose, oh, I I think we'll have a terrific Democratic nominee. And I'm confident that they will be a great president. And I'm going to be working as hard as I can. But right now, you know, it's something American people decide.

This is May of I can't tell you my secret ballot. You don't talk about who you vote for. Absolutely, but Donald Trump will make America. I haven't thought too much about it because I don't think Donald Trump's gonna end up being president and you still stand by that absolutely. Thank you so much, Thank you appreciate. Harry Lake and Barack Obama. What do you guys think of that? And she's asking about make America great again? Maybe we should

be paying more attention to these local interviews. Rick, Actually, I think that's an indication of why we shouldn't pay more. It was seven, I said, Fox ten or something like that New Center seven one on one. Genie, what'd you learn from that? I learned Joe Matthew that last night you went and you listened to this speech. I love what a political animal you are. And then you actually because I heard the speech, but then you actually went on and looked it up. And so you've done me proud,

Joe Matthew. And yeah, and I've got to say that, you know, hearing carry like like that, I mean, he just underscores the hypocrisy of this race that she is running, and she likely is going to have a very good shot of winning. And I think in part we have to admit Katie Hobbs has not very much like you know, we were just talking about in New Hampshire UM with the Senate candidate Maggie Hassan. They are not going out

on the stump. As Rick mentioned, you see Bulldock seventies six or so town halls carry like all over Arizona. Katie Hobbs shying away from being out there and debating, And I think it's a big mistake. Yes, should Katie Hobbs, now that we're five days out here, Rick, should she have debated carry like despite all the denier business? Would

this be a different race? You know, Look, I mean it may be worse actually for Katie Hobbs she debated, but she still should have debated, right, she should give the people of Arizona a chance to compare and contrast. Like virtually every other candidate in America, what makes her special none? So Yeah, she should have put herself out there. Maybe it would have made it worse, Maybe it would

have made it better. But like to deny voters the chance to see the two of them side by side just because she's not quote a great debater, Rick Davis, Jennie Chantino or signature panel. We'll be back with more tomorrow on the Fastest Hour in Politics. If you showed up late, subscribe to the podcast. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg