Sound On: Manchin Agrees to Climate, Tax Reconciliation Deal

to get this CHIP back done. It's another bipartisan bill. There is a lot on the table after Chip. Sloomberg Sound On with Joe Mavew on Bloomberg Radio. The Fed hikes rates amid new accusations that China is trying to infiltrate the Central Bank. Welcome to the fastest hour in politics. As a Senate report claims China is trying to get

confidential info from the Fed. We'll talk about it with New York Congressman John Katko, ranking Republican on the Household Land Security Committee, now preparing to vote on the CHIP Act. Will get into that too later. The Department of Justice now investigating Donald Trump and its criminal probe and who

attempts to overturn the election. We'll discuss implications for the Republican Party later this hour with Barbara Comstock, former congresswoman from Virginia, and we'll peel back the layers on all of these stories with our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis, Jeanie Schanzano with us for analysis through the hour. Thanks for being with us, Son Bloomberg sound On. Welcome

to Wednesday. Good day for Joe Biden. Before we welcome Congressman CatCo to the broadcast, I can tell you that the leader of the free world tested negative, just tested negative for COVID nineteen after isolating for five days. Mary is wearing the aviators in the sun in the rose Garden. A late scheduled little event there. They didn't even have time to put chairs out in the rose garden if you want a little behind the scenes. But he looked like he got some color. Has he been napping on

the on the balcony. That's what I would do. Got the dog there. I mean, I know he's wearing the suit and the whole thing, but looked to look like he was he was back into his own here the doctor gave him the green light to end his strict isolation. But a message here as the White House tries to cast, as I read from Josh wind Grove on the terminal cast, the President's about with COVID as evidence of the strides made,

there's still there's still stuff to worry about. B A five means many of us are still going to get COVID even if we take the precautions. That doesn't mean we are we're doing anything wrong. Unfortunately, this COVID is still with us as it has been for two and a half years, but our fight against COVID is making a huge difference. What's different now is our ability to protect ourselves some serious illness. And he's calling on Congress

again to provide funding to keep COVID vaccines and therapeutics available. Now, the Fed the big story today, the right hike. You heard all about it. We had special programming seventy five basis points, and the Fed drives the day with this news. But there may be more to be concerned about at the Fed than just inflation. As a senior Republican Senator, Rob Portman of Ohio accuses China now of trying to obtain confidential information from the FED. This is a big deal.

Bloomberg leading the way on this story. Bloomberg Fed reporter cred Touria is reporting China has in fact tried to glean insight into monetary policy and access to internal data. Can you imagine what that's worth. Senator Portman spoke with Bloomberg about the report. He appeared on Balance of Power

with David Weston. I think that it's important that the FED look at our recommendations, which is to tighten up further to avoid China getting access to the FED information has been very valuable, not just to China but to investors all over the world obviously, and so this is something where it has to be protected now protected, okay, But there's also pushback inside the FED as J Powell, well, he's what's the actual statement he got here? Strong concerns

about assertions and implications. He's obviously trying to protect his people. Is that a deportment was asked about that this report is based on the Federal Reserve's own study, their own counterintelligence five year study. It's also based on some FBI reporting that that we've had access to so um to the extent it's being questioned. I guess I would say that the FED is questioning its own report. There's a lot in this report we wanted to ask Congressman John

Katko about it, among other risks. Who sees the ranking member on the House Homeland Security Committee. Congressman, welcome, it's great to have you back on Bloomberg Radio. Do we need to take a closer look at what China is doing or not? With the FED? Oh? Absolutely, we need to take closer look what China's doing with everything, and we cannot let our guard down. And any time there's even a little bit as smoke and pretty much bet

there's going to be a fire. So any time that we have any indications or concerns, we need to we need to evaluate them and look into them. And even if there's not, we've got to keep our guard up and make sure we're doing everything we possibly can, like with chip manufacturing and everything else. Yeah, this is quite a list of concerns here, including the FED identifying this is based on the FED zone findings over a dozen

persons of interest with connections to Chinese talent recruiters. Congress when they've been dubbed the P network, Why would the FED chairman say there's nothing to see here? Essentially, Well, you should never say there's nothing to see at the beginning. If there's, if there's even an allogation that should be fully looked into inbed it. For example, we I saw a report this week that the Chinese were infiltrate and

police departments across the country trying to get intelligence. It's all about gathering intelligence and gathering access, and we gotta we've got to keep our guard with a office subject matters and never discount the ability that Chinese to infiltrate organizations in our country. Well, the how Homeland Security Committee look into this um but most likely many different agencies well or committees, Well until Foreign Affairs at all, Well, we'll probably have a hand in taking a look at this,

and we should. Well, apparently this Senator Apportman's report came from a combination of of the fed's own internal investigation and work by the FBI. So somebody's investigating this now. I would just wonder if this should be a matter of business in the US Congress. Well, listen, if if if that's already FBA is already investigating, that's that's a

good sign. At that there. Abi is very adept to what's going on with China, but we always, we always have a role with respect to oversight, and we need to exercise that role and any time that China is involved. Was today's chips bill passing the Senate, and I understand it's going to move quickly through the House. The first step in fighting back against China. No, I'll tell you what it's a it's a very very big step because, uh, you know that could hard reality is that of China

decide to go into Taiwan tomorrow. Uh, they will have control the high end chip market in the world. And so what does that mean. That means that our missile defense systems are missile systems are are high high tech vehicles all across countin, from tractors to cars to all kinds of odd items would be beholding to the Chinese. So we have to get this bill passed from a strategic standpoint, and it's a very very important stuff. I'm sure you're looking at this as a national security issue

as much as anything else. The White House has been talking a lot about that side of it lately, not just bringing consumer prices lower, even though that's apparently a pretty long term story here. But what do you hearing, Congressman about. Is the House prepared to vote on this in the next two days? Oh yeah, I think we're gonna be having a vote on it tomorrow, and I'm excited to cast a vote enthusiastically. Yes. Um, there's a lot of nonsense going on about this bill that's just

not true. One of them, for example, is the the whole question about it got larded up with a bunch of other things. Well, actually it didn't. The Chips Act is fifty two billion dollars or so for computer chip manufacturing, incentivizing the United States, plus an additional component for income tax credits over a period of five years that pals in comparison to the investment that will be made in the bill going forward. There's other parts of the bill

to have nothing to do with chips. That has to do with reauthorizing National Science Foundation and incentivizing high tech manufacturing another field. So, um, the chip side of it is is lean, meaning it's going to be great. Fifty two billion dollars here, do you need guardrails or are there guardrails on that money so they don't go back to other countries? There's definitely guardrails in there, and that that's another misnomer, that a lot of guard rails making

sure that stuff doesn't go back to China. But if you think about it this way, that's fifty two billion dollars that that passes. It will spawn easily by any any has to know whatsoever, easily three billion dollars and probably exponentially more in investments by chip manufacturers in the US. So you get a six fold return on your money, and imediately before your factor in all the spinoff businesses, before you factor in the salaries of the employees and

everything else. In the average salary these jobs are about hundred sixty thousand, and you're talking about hundreds of thousands of jobs across the country. So this is something from an economic standpoint it makes sense. But from a nationals UH security standpoint, it's an imperative. As I talked to you from your perch as ranking member of Homeland Security, I want to ask you about this matter involving secret Service.

Tex Senator Gary Peters, who chairs Homeland in his chamber, UH, tells Bloomberg today he's aggressively seeking answers on missing texts from January six and may hold hearings. Would you support a move like that in the House Committee? Yeah? Absolutely. Look, don't forget I'm an old time prosecutor as a federal prosecutor for twenty years and organized crime cases, and so for me, when evidence disappears after an investigation has commenced,

that is highly, highly suspicious, and highly troubling. It's either a massive mistake on on Secret Services part or there's something else going on. But either way, we have a duty from an oversight perspective to look into this, and I'm glad we are going to do that. Are you heartened by news that the d J is looking into Donald Trump as part of its criminal investigation? Now they suddenly seem to be talking to everybody. Look at I mean, the allegations that propped up. They have to look and

they have to chase them down. Whatever comes to them. We'll see. Um. You know, don't forget that the January six Commission is not balanced with Democrats and Republicans. So are we hearing all the bad stuff? Is there? Exculpatory stuff? We're not aware of that type of stuff. We need to find out, and I think an investigation by the Department of Justice would at least give us some more balanced view what's going on, and I think that's important.

Congressman John Khako, Republican from New York the twenty district readings to Syracuse, and thank you for being with us. Representative Katko back on the program, ranking member on householdmland security, and some interesting insights on all of these stories that will throw to the panel. Max Rick and Genie are with us for the hour Bloomberg Politics contributors with much more on chips and China and what's going on at

the Federal Reserve. We did get an interest rate high today and the White House is sending big messaging ahead of g d P tomorrow. More ahead on the fastest hour in politics. This is Bloomberg, This is Bloomberg. So long with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. We've been talking about the Chip Act now for eighteen months. I've been saying over a year. I actually looked at that today, eighteen months in the making, So I guess we can

call it a history being made. The yay's are sixty four, the nays are thirty three, and the motion to concur with an amendment is agreed to there it goes to the House, a big day for Senator Chuck Hill. We could say, let corporate America do it on its own, but it's a brand new world with nation states trying to overcome US, and many of them are authoritarian, and we'll set the rules if they become the leaders in

in science, technology, innovation, and advanced manufacturing. Bloomberg Reporting legislation heads to the House for passage likely this week. You just heard from Congressman Katko. He says tomorrow fifty two billion dollars grants incentives for U S semiconductor manufacturing. Three the vote, as we heard there from Congressman Don Buyer, no stranger to this program. Let's assemble the panel because this is just one of the issues we talked about

there with the Congressman. And we have news as well. Dare I say it on reconciliation? Rick Davis and Genie Chanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors are with us. Uh, Genie, so big Win. I guess everyone agrees. We talked about it. You know, we have been since we're blue in the face. I feel like I should send flowers to Gina Romando. She must be having a party tonight. Now she can

get onto something else. But there's news that Joe Mansion is on board and has reached a deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on a bill that includes this is that stripped down, build back better thing. There's a new name for it. Now, what was it here? I have to go back and find this. Here we go, ready, the Inflation Reduction Act of two. Does it get Doneene? Wow, you're just blowing my mind. First of all, constant name changes. Imagine if you change your child's name this much. And

and now Joe Mansion on board? You know, you know, I I think it would have been hard for you know, and again I'll believe it when I see the vote. But I do think it would have been hard for Joe Mansion to vote against this very very stripped down reconciliation bill because it is deflationary and and that's one of the arguments that have been made. So I in one, on the one hand, I'm not surprised that he's going on board, And on the other hand, it's Joe Mansion.

So we've got to wait until we actually get a vote. And I think we've been talking about this today. Rick, we know that we knew Joe Mansion had COVID. I guess has been on the phone or been on zoom with Chuck Schumer for a while. He just issued a statement saying, the Inflation Reduction Act, how do they come up with it? We'll address record inflation by paying down our national debt, the three of them here, lowering energy costs and lowering healthcare costs. Are they actually going to

do this in the next week and a half. Yeah, they've got the ability to do it. It's a party line vote. You don't expect any Republicans to sort of bail on this or get on this. But look, they took the title right off the top of the polls. I mean, like most people are concerned about inflation, so they're gonna call it that. And uh and and I'm not exactly sure what impact is going to have on inflation. But the fact that they can get a deal with

with Joe Manchin in the eleventh hour, right before summer recess. Um. You know, kudos to Schumer for you know, sort of standing up. You know, his his leadership of the Senate has been really in question. Um. And and you know, if he can pull this off, it would be an eleventh hour home run. Well, John Cornyan is not impressed. We just got a statement from the Republican from Texas who actually he was sell lebrating the chip back passing. Genie.

He's he name checks Joe Mansion, says he flip flopped. Senate Democrats can change the name of build back Broke as many times as they want. It won't be any less devastating to American families and small businesses. That doesn't sound like something that lowers prices, Genie, No, it doesn't sound like it. I'm not surprised. But to Rick's point, this is a win for Chuck Schumer. It's a good day to be Chuck Schumer. It's a good day for Chuck Schumer. Um. You know, he's had a rough time,

but if he's able to get both of these. And again, this is very very paired down from what it was. And so I do think it is accurately named. You know, I don't know. I ra A might not be the best acronym, but definationary is, you know, And I don't know what the exact name is, but you said inflation reduction acts already burned into your brain. It is. I got it. I got it, Joe. But I do think the deflationary aspect of this is critically important at this time,

and it makes sense for the Democrats. And if they get it through the Parliamentarian which is sounds like they will, they can move this to the House. I think they can get it done before break. This is a long statement from I'm still scrolling here. How many paragraphs do we have here the last graph Rick. From here forward, the debate over a future reconciliation bill or any targeted legislation must focus on supporting the everyday, hard working Americans

we've been elected as service. He is he worried about blowback here on, at least here in Washington, if not at home. Yeah, there might be some blowback. I mean, you know, he's really staked out this position of being sort of the conscience of the Senate. He's not gonna let anything bad go through. Um, you know, he's gonna have this uh revenue raiser. Uh, He's gonna go you know, raise taxes on billionaires and and and that could be an interesting cell back home about you know, raising taxes

in an election year. But um, you know, look he's riding high. I mean, he'll be able to sell this pretty hard. He's gonna walk out of the Senate for recess with a couple of big victories. The chip ACKed is something he was backing too, I do think at the time of this, I mean, like, within the hour after the chip back passed, isn't that something McConnell was gonna hold it up to stop reconciliation, bangman out to

deal on reconciliation. So it's uh, there's gonna be a lot of sort of twisting of the gears this week in Capitol Hill. You know, Schumer maybe have gotten one up on Mitch McConnell this week. The fascinating turn of events here. I didn't think we'd be talking about it today, and we're gonna have to talk about it with Barbara Comstock coming up as well. Our panel stays in place. Rick and Jennie are here. Barbara Compstock, former Virginia congresswoman, will join us next with a lot to cover here.

Uh Now, reconciliation apparently back on track, and an enormous amount of news should I say leaking from the d o J. Will have more on that on the January six investigation. This is Bloomberger. It's getting bigger the d o j's probe into January six, as we already knew Mark Shorts had testified. He confirmed that to ABC News just the other day. Of course, Mike Pence's former chief of staff, I was subpoenaed by a grand jury, and I complied with that subpoena. But upon the advice my

legal counsel, I really can't comment further than that. We learn as well today Cassidy Hutchinson, of course, the former top advisor to Mark Meadows, also recently cooperated with the d j's investigation into the events of January six. And we wake up two news this morning from Page News Washington Posts Justice Department investigating Trump's actions in jan six criminal probe that'll be looking specifically at his actions that

day as prosecutors question witnesses before a grand jury. And it's very interesting to consider where this all might be going. We have a lot to talk about, starting with this issue, as we're joined by Barbara Comstock, former Virginia congresswoman Republican. It's great to have you back with us. It's been

a long time, Barbara. What do you make of this? Initially, this news that d o J is not only quietly working behind the scenes year as the committee gets a lot of attention, but it's actually looking at the former

president himself in his actions that day. Well, I think it's very significant, and it's not surprising given the very significant information that has already been public, but also the expected investigation that they've been doing and all of the information we've we know about, uh, you know, the public testament that Donald Trump's own um justice said about how he was trying to them to say that there was fraud in the election when they of course knew there

wasn't and they told him there wasn't. He was trying to get them to overturn an election when they said they couldn't. Now we know there were all these efforts to uh, you know, say that you have these fake electors, and now we have this memo that says, you know, well, let's just say there are fake electors and try and get Mike Pence to do them. All the pressure on Mike Pence, which is why who have Mike Pence's staff

testified injury? And then that's eight seven minutes on January six, where we know, um, really see the criminal intent of Donald Trump, where not only did he fail to act. But he chose not to act very intentionally. And now we know his claims that he said he you know,

he sent the National Guard. We know those claims are false. Well, so are you actually thinking that we're in a world here, sorry to interrupt, Barbara, where Merrick Garland says, no, we're going to criminally charge a former president, this is actually gonna happen. Well, I think he's made very clear that it doesn't matter who it is, if there is criminal conduct, that he is going to take it to its logical attention.

So what charge do you have in your minds? Charges that have been mentioned by the prosecutors who have looked at this very seriously. You know, are things like conspiracy to defraud the US as well as we're struct proceedings, So conspiracy to the US by you know, putting out their fraudulent electors, you know, sending fraudental electors um out there, trying to get Mike to you know, put fraudulent electors forward, and having that conspiracy to do that where he was

very directly involved from what we can tell. And then conspiracy to obstruct the proceedings by setting people who he knew were armed up to the Capitol that he himself wanted to go but was stopped. But then also not stopping that mob, because we now know that it was Pence and General Milly who stopped it. And you know, Donald Trump only made that statement to go home after he knew that Pence and Milly were sending the gulf,

you know, make them go home, whether they wanted or not. Yeah, we've had a lot of revelations over the past couple of weeks. Uh. As we spend time with Barbara Comstock, former Virginia congress Will I want to pull you back to an event yesterday while you're still with us, Barbara, and that was I won't say the dueling speeches in this case, but Mike Pence's speech and his choice of language as he spoke to a conservative youth crowd here in Washington, d C. And was asked about his division

with Donald Trump. Here's what he said. I don't I don't know that the President and I differ on issues, but we may differ on focus. I truly do believe that elections are about the future, and that it's absolutely essential at a time when so many Americans are hurting, so many families are struggling that we don't give way to the temptation to look back. We differ on focus. Was his choice of words. I was fascinated by that.

I'm assuming that was a line that tested well. Barbara, did we see the two alternatives, the two pass for the Republican Party on display yesterday? Well, the problem is is they differ on democracy. You know, on January six, Mike Pence did stand up for democracy and wouldn't do take illegal action. So him for not you know, for doing his job and not doing something illegal that Donald Trump did very much press for him to do and

send a mob to try and get him to do. Um. So I think, uh, Mike Pence may well be asked to testify before a grand jury himself because there are actions like you know, the phone call that Donald Trump made to him that morning, you know, the numerous threats that he was making to him, both publicly and privately, and asking him to do you know, Hey, wouldn't it be cool if you could do this? That's by yourself.

You should do it. Let's do it. Um, I think he may need to test what's more than a difference of opinion, It's not Hey, what should the tax rate be Donald Trump was asking him to do illegal things. So I don't think it's about the future of the party. You cannot be pro democracy and pro Trump and pro insurrection. It's it's h It's just quoted the president right there. Barbara, thank you, come back and see us. Yes, go ahead.

Last last word with one other yet to be reported umpach that was made yesterday by Bill Barr at the Capitol Hill Club. I don't know. Oh yeah, but he spoke at the Capitol Hill Club in front of fifty people. I think couple members of Congress were there where he very much said we cannot Donald Trump as our nominee. Well we've heard that from him saying that, and he re emphasized, and I think Barbara compt come back and see us. We'll call the phone company between now and then.

Former Virginia congresswoman. Great to share insights with Barbara when we can here on the fastest hour in politics. We've got new headlines on Joe Mansion and reconciliation. Will reassemble the panel next. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg. So long with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Brought to you by the letter R. Reconciliation is back on the table, almost like that last year never happened. With the headline on the terminal, Mansion pivots back to

climate tax provisions sought by Biden. If you were with us earlier in the hour, you already know that Joe Mansion has agreed to a deal with Chuck Schumer. And we've got a number now here, three hundred sixty nine billion dollars. This was build back better Light. There's a new name for it, as we discussed earlier with the panel, the Inflation Reduction Act of two. Eric Wasson is with

this Bloomberg Congress reporter who's sharing the byline on the story. Eric, I don't know if you saw this coming, but things seem to be happening awfully quickly at this point. Give us some of the fine print inside this deal as we run a couple of headlines here that are awfully important, uh, including closing the carried interest loophole. Right, so yes, it looks like it's about seven nine billion dollars in revenu It was the main piece here, Corporate minimum tax on

corporate rations over one billion dollars in value. That's a tweak from earlier proposal. We're also looking at mclary interest loophole, which about fourteen billion, and a lot of tax enforcement. This is a informal westmate hunter twenty four billion dollars that you could get by boosting the I R. S

budget by eighty billion dollars. Those are the you know, the main revenue pieces and the main spending as you mentioned as three sixty nine billion dollars on climate and energy provisions, you know, and then looking at three hundred billion dollars in davosity reduction. So this is a pivot

from from it. I have to say it's really a master stroke for Chuck Schumer because if you guys remember Mitch McConnell, the Minori leader, said he would not allow this Chips bill to go forward to get a final vote as long as they're talking about reversing the Trump tax cuts or doing you know, any kind of tax increases moment. I mean we're talking about there's a matter of hours after the Chips bill pass outcomes this deal

between Mansion and Schumer to do just that. So they really have rolled the McConnell and normally McConnell's alone credit as being the legislative unions. I suspect he'll be in a really good mood when he speaks tomorrow morning. So you're you're reporting that this actually could be could get done before the August recess. They could vote on this as soon as next week in the Senate. That's right now.

There's a couple of things that here. The one they have, they have to scrub it to make sure it complies to the Senate rules. Has got to be a kosher with the Buget budget rules at best. And also they've had a slew of illness, and Mansion in fact is ill with COVID this week he's negotiating as a big deal. Uh you know, lahy uh, you know is Vermont centers in hospital with hip hip surgery. So you know there are variables here, but this is a major turning point.

We're trying to nail down that everyone's on board, carried addressed. Christian Cinema has been opposing that as a tax increased before. So I'm not sure the expect status of all these with all the members. Were we making too much of this without knowing where she is on this? Eric? No, because Mansion has always been the major hold up. So

I think I think we're not making too much of it. Uh. And I think, you know, that's only fourteen billion dollars that they could take it out and the whole thing doesn't collapse. I think, you know, So we're working on but I think this is a this is a major step for for Biden's agenda, presumably. I was talking to somebody in the House who's close to the Democratic leadership, said they might come back just for a day. Uh, to get this done. Is that necessary? O, Well, the

House will have to come back. I think they're gonna come back as opposed to waiting until September or whatever. I mean, yeah, that they do want to do that. They also really want to try to pass the sault weapons span uh, and the math gets harder for them after a Minnesota special election. So I think that they're gonna they're they're really planning to come back the eight or ninth of August. You know. Again, for them, the hope of the Senate will be we'll be done with

that for that plan to work. Of course, you know Republicans, which none of this will happen. So we'll see how it plays out. When does this go public in terms of, you know, an event where we've got the plodium and they'll what are they going to set up outside on the steps and hold a rally tomorrow? How does how

does Chuck Schumer get some energy under this? Well, you know, I think there's still a lot to do with it, with it behind the scenes, with send a prolemtary and so they announce they're going to bring the text out with a more fulsome summary. We'll be the key questions like where the electric vehicle tax credit is in or not. There's a lot of details we don't have right now. When do we see a billit? Uh? Well, you know the text is supposed to go to the to the

rules official tonight. We're hoping they'll be made public tonight as well. Wow, man, I hope you're not up all night, but we really appreciate your reporting and jumping on with us as this breaks. Eric Wasson, thanks for the insights today Bloomberg Sound On. As we reassembled our panel, Rick and Jennie, we're talking about this with us earlier, but we've learned a lot since then. As this comes to life this hour here before our eyes on Bloomberg Radio.

What do you think of some of these details here, Rick, corporate minimum tax that was not part of the Republican agenda, Certainly it could be undone. Then through reconciliation as well, it can be undone. And this is the problem with reconciliation, right, it's not a budget authority. It goes to the next majority. You can just undo all of this and that includes you know, not just the revenue raisers, but spending, you know, for things like the subsidies for the A C a

UM payments. But I would say, you know, this has got a glide path. I mean, even though the parliamentarian has a rule, it's likely the only thing in this package that I can tell that would be vulnerable to her rule, you know, would be the drug price reductions, and that's just if they exceed inflation. So, uh, there's there's probably a work around on all of this to make it uh kosher for the parliamentarian to get a vote.

Right quick boy, We started talking earlier about a win on the Chip Act, Genie, what would you call this for Joe Biden? This would be an enormous win, and not just for Joe Biden. It's a big victory for what I call the Purple Dems. Those Democrats who have to go to these moderate districts with the President with approval ratings in the thirties, have been looking for something to take home. I don't think they ever suspected they

would get both chips and reconciliation. And let's be be clear, lowering prescription drug prices is critical for Americans and particularly has been really a boon for Democrat if you look back at the last mid term. That said, I think we have to be clear. I agree with Rick. This probably moves through to parliamentary and probably moves through the Senate.

But I have to tell you, living in New York, the fact that Joe Mansion has said he won't go along with the salt cap expansion, and the House Dems only have three vote majority there, it's gonna be tight in the House. I don't know if Democrats will, you know, peel off from my area and Menendez and others who really really need that for these areas of New Jersey, New York, California. But that's a big question in my mind. As you moved to the House, it's pretty interesting, So

who do you offend more in this case? If you're Joe Biden Rick, you canna, you're gonna offend the progresses because this is this is just a shadow of the original Build Back Better agenda? Or is it the moderates you're going to blow out with without the salt component. Yeah, I think you know, this is all about the Green Party the money. I don't think it really has much to do with the Progressives in their priorities versus the Moderates.

I think they want to spend a trillion dollars, right, I mean, that's that's pretty much all they talk about is how do we spend another trillion dollars and we'll we'll let the policy sort of work its way out

and ensure they're going to be unhappy Democrats. But could you imagine the scenario where this passes in the Senate and you know, everybody's got this energy around these high priorities for Democratic voters especially and in the House of Representatives, pitches a fit and says, no, we're not gonna do this. We're gonna deny this administration a trillion dollar spending bill, you know, three or four months before the election. I mean, you know, all I think we've seen some pretty strange

stuff in the last year. That would certainly take the gig. But your your to your point, though the timing here has a lot to do with the success on the verge of the August recess gives members a chance to go home, take credit for it, take the victory lap, do town halls, and then once they come back, this is all codified and it's time to to really campaign for midterm elections. This might not have happened the same way at a different time, Genie, would you agree, Oh, definitely.

And you know what a blow to Mitch McConnell the fact that he said, you know, if you try to go with both chips and reconciliation, it's a no go for Mansion and Schumer to pull this off. And Mitch McConnell is a master of the Senate. For them to pull this off if they indeed do, which it looks like they will, I think Mitch McConnell is going to

be steaming mad. But I would say, looking at mansion statement, you know where he says about the tax coach in't favor of red state blue state elites with loopholes like salt. That is going to rub very, very hard against some of the Dems in these blue states. I have to say, that's a tough statement, like a New Yorker. Sorry, it kills me this, I get it. But so what do we make of the of the Can I call it a flip flop? Should I? Rick? Remember it was seeing

September we need another inflation report. So on the same day, the Fed hikes another seventy five basis points. All of a sudden, Joe Mansion is good with this? What what changed? It was widely reported Joe, as you point out that Joe Mansion said he wasn't going to be doing before this, and and a lot of reporting said that he told that directly to Mitch McConnell, which allowed the chip back to move forward. And so I mean, you know, maybe

there was something lost in translation. You know, these guys from West Virginia talk funny. Every now really understood it? Yes? From it now? Now your satellite guy from Alabama. All right, so tomorrow we've got a tough one. At eight thirty tomorrow morning, um G d P. We talked about this at the beginning of the week. The White House accused of trying to redefine recession because it looks like we're gonna have two negative numbers in a row here, two

consecutive quarters. We we look, we heard from Mike McKee this week, we heard from Mark Zandy. They said, no, Joe, it's more complicated than that. And Karine Jean Pierre was defending herself again on this issue today in the briefing. The textbook definition of recession is not is not two negative quarters of GDP. We have a strong labor market, we have business that's investing. We have consumers uh that are also very much uh, you know, in investing and purchasing.

That is incredibly important. We have three point six unemployment. You do not see that in a prerecession, and you do not see that in a recession. President Gosh, forget the President. J. Powell today said he doesn't think we're in a recession. How hard is this going to hit tomorrow morning? Rick? Oh, I think, uh, everybody's talking about why this is not a recession. I think that voters, the only thing you're hearing is we're going into a recession.

So whether it's uh declared a recession because of these GDP numbers or not, I think most people in America have been listening to this debate they care about the future of the economy, and all they're really hearing is that we're likely going to a recession. Is that the takeaway to Margine. It might be, but imagine, Joe Matthew, if the GDP is positive tomorrow on the face of this news with Chips in reconciliation. What a day for Biden and the Democrats if that happens. Listen to you,

somebody is buying a lottery ticket tonight. Genie and Rick will do it again tomorrow on the fastest hour in politics. Great conversation with breaking news to boot I, Joe Matthew and this is Bloomberg.