Sound On: Heated MI Primary, Manchin Thwarts WH Eco Agenda (Radio)

perspective from DC's top names. Democrats, because of redistricting being forced to run against each other and neither one of them being willing to step down as incumbents those expectations set by the progressive left, they could never deliver the votes for those Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. It is shaping up to be another busy week in our nation's capital. Lawmakers are simultaneously working on

passing billions in funding for semiconductors. Well, Democrats see if they can salvage a deal that has gone from an all inclusive package to a much narrower bill, mostly focused on healthcare issues. I'm Emily Wilkin in today for Joe Matthew and just a minute, we're going to be joined by Congressman Andy Levin, a Democratic lawmaker from Michigan, to break down some of the latest in Congress as well as his upcoming primary really really interesting one. They're well

joining me now as Congressman Andy Levin. He is a Michigan Democrat, my home state, UM, and he's got a number of different things going on right now. Congressman, thank you so much for joining us today. I wanted to kind of just jump in with the fallout from last Friday's news on the reconciliations bill, that package that Democrats are trying to move initially called Build Back Better to Know,

it's got a couple of different nicknames now. But Senator Joe Manchin says he's not gonna be able to support climate provisions in the bill as well as additional taxes. I just want to start by getting your perspective here. Are you willing to go forward on a bill without those key provisions. Well, we'll have to see where where we are when the ink dries on the negotiations. There's no question, Emily that the healthcare measures are incredibly import

and then I strongly support them. But you know, Joe Mansion truly is lucy. He just keeps moving the football and moving the football every time the rest of the team runs up to kick it. And I mean, come on, he's he's changed his position over and over and over. He's gone back on promises over and over and over. So I support those healthcare measures, Let's see what they really look like when, uh, the negotiations are concluded. Because I don't have a lot of trust left for Joe Mansion.

I mean, what does this mean though, going going forward? I mean, I know that you don't trust Joe Mansion, but you have to have his vote if you want to move this reconciliation package forward. So what's the game plan for Democrats who do want to see something pass? I know, but are are sort of working with this Uh you know, as you mentioned, someone who's moved the

football away at the last minute a number of times. Right. Well, so I mean we have to see We've said for a long time that we have to see what fifty senators will agree upon, all fifty who caucus with Democrats, and then that's what we can pass. I mean, what this says in the bigger picture is that America is

facing a huge crisis. And in earlier times when we face huge crises, like in the thirties and the sixties, FDR had huge majorities in the House, in the Senate lb J had huge majorities in the House and the Senate, and it wasn't a bunch of handhold you know, bipartisan handholding.

Democrats passed the architecture of our democracy that we take for granted to today in the thirties and the sixties, the Fair Labor Standards Act, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and so right now we have a huge crisis of income and wealth inequality. We've got a health crisis and global economic crisis, and we're trying our planet and we've got to stop doing that. And America needs to lead the way so we capture the technology and the great jobs

that come with leading an economic change. So we Joe Mancher no, Joe Manchon, we have to find a way to move ahead and lead on climate change policy. And you know I'm going to keep fighting to do that. Well, what does that look like? I mean right now, is this up to executive actions from the Biden administration. It's partly enough to executive actions, and it's partly bucking history and making having a clear message to the American people

that your choice is being made super obvious. Do you want to vote in enough Democrats so we can move this country forward, or do you want to have the party that had doesn't want to do anything on climate change, or not nearly enough on sensible gun reform, that doesn't want women to have control over their own bodies, of

their own decisions. America really has an amazing choice to make in November, and we have to send the message very clearly that if you want to have an economy that works for working folks, you've got to get enough Democrats in there so we can and move forward on climate change policy and create all these great jobs that would come about if we lead on electric vehicles, lead on offshore wind, on shore wind. So basically this all

this all comes down to the election done. This is sort of that Democrats need to message and really get out to voters that if they want these things in the policy to happen, that they need to not just elect Democrats, but elect more Democrats. Is that going to work? Because I know a lot of Democratic voters. They're frustrated with their party right now. They're frustrated for the lack of things that they're going there they're seeing getting done. Is it enough to tell them to go out and vote?

I think there's two Well, no, it's it's several things. One is it's more effective messaging. Uh. And but the second thing is you mentioned it. Yes, we need our president to take more executive action forgive fifty dollars of student loan debt, really move forward on whatever executive actions

he can take on climate change policy. Um. So there's there's executive actions he can take across a number of areas that will really help send the message the American people that the presidents on your side, The Democrats are on your side. The Republicans are sticking with this idea of trickle down economics where you just make it good for the billionaires and the huge corporations and somehow that's going to benefit everybody. By now, we all know that

just does not work. We've got a raise way just free up Americans to form unions and bargain collectively. Uh. You know, we have to have healthcare for everybody in this country. And I'm telling you, Emily, if we send strong, clear messages on kitchen table issues, the American people will

vote for us. Speaking about unions, UM, I wanted to get a little into the wonky weeds, but there's something really big that's actually happening on Capitol Hell today, for the first time, congressional staffers are protected if they want to form a union. So you've seen eight offices today, staffers from offices come forward openly say that they're beginning the process of union unionization. This is something really brand new for the Hill. We haven't seen this done this before.

But Congressman Love and I know that you obviously have a passed as a labor organizer. Your office is one of the eight that went ahead and filed that petition today to begin the unionization process. And I just wanted to get a sense what you think the change that would come to Congress would be. Obviously, this is an office by office process. Not every office, not every staffer will be unionized, but there will be some unions out there.

How is that going to change what we see from Congress? Right? Well, in that fantastic account you just gave Emily, you just missed one thing. It's my resolution that makes this possible. How could I forget? How could I forget? Well in my you know, I wanted to let you say that, Congressman, I wanted to go and you know, if you want to talk about my primary rates, I mean, it's a huge difference. That's that's coming up next. Focus on the US right now. I promise we'll get to your primary.

No problem. But I'm the you know, I'm the shop steward of the Congress, and I'm so proud that we passed my resolution. Emily. This is huge. It's huge because just it's a big workforce. People work in the U. S. House of Representatives in our district offices are DC offices and our committees, and then the office is like the leadership offices who are covered by this. Secondly, it's huge because this is the Congress of the United States. And

gosh darn' it. If Democrats want to say, we're going to help free up workers to have more power, more voice, and say and in the economy and in society, we better walk to walk and give the opportunity to our own workers. And so I'm today we passed my resolution in May. Today, July two is the day that these rights took effect. And boom, as you said, eight offices, including my own, the workers filed to be recognized and to formalize their right to have collective bargaining. And this

will make Congress a better place to work. People. We've have less turnover, more happiness. These young people generally who work for us, they work so hard. They make democracy function. Literally, they draft the bills, they talked to the constituents, and so they really deserve to have a fair workplace and just workplace. And I'm I'm just so proud of them for, you know, standing up for their own rights as they have in in getting this far. So it's a really

big day. You know, a lot of people are saying this is the biggest change today, is the biggest change in working commissions on Capitol Hill in thirty years. And I'm just proud to have played some little partner. Yeah, we'll definitely see what what the next steps are. Certainly we're beginning today on what's going to be a process of which we will continue to follow. I did say that I would get to your primary. I absolutely want to.

You're in a competitive primary, one of the few in the nation where you have two incumbent Democrats going up against each other. You and your colleague Hayley Stevens. You've recently ran a couple of ads calling her out for changing her p sational medicare accepting money from a pack that's also donating to Republicans, And I'm just sort of wondering, why why this strategy? Now? Why have negative ads on a colleague that that you had a working relationship within

the past. Well, so we're, you know, the Michigan's losing a seat. So we're kind of mushed together in this district, and so the voters have to choose, and I'm I think, how do they decide? And I'm just drawing a contrast. I mean, I've been backed by Cecile Richards and Heather Booth and others because of my really strong activism on reproductive rights over a long period of time. I've been backed by Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders because I didn't flip flop. I've got to care for all. I'm for

healthcare as a universal human rights. I've been backed by every environmental group, all levin that have endorsed in this race because I am one of the co sponsors is a Green New Deal. I've written climate change legislation with Shared Brown, with Elizabeth Warren and others. So I will absolutely draw a contrast so the voters can figure out who's their champion. And what I'm saying is I'm the principal candidate who's not going to take money from special

interest that back insurrectionist Republicans. It's not that they back republicans, ati least that they backed Republicans who voted to end our democracy. I just won't be part of that. And I'm the progressive candidate, and I'm the pragmatic candidate who gets a lot done. I mean, gov Track ranked me number four in the freshman class after our first term in terms of leadership, and they ranked her seventy one out of So I just think that when you're running

for office, you have to help with voters. See what the differences differences, that different differentiation, I know it is going to play a big part. Congressman Andy Levin of Michigan, thank you so much for taking the time to join us today. Tomorrow, we're actually going to be hearing from Congressman Hayley Stevens, so stick around for that. Coming up in just a minute, we're gonna dive further into the primaries. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg sound On on Bloomberg Radio.

Welcome back to sound On. This is Emily Wilkins filling in today for Joe Matthew. Well, we're going to stay for a little bit on the Democrat versus Democrat primary in Michigan's eleventh district. Really interesting. You have you had a redistricting go on this last year, means that you've got a number of incumbents that are matched up against each other. Please make for some of the most really interesting races they tell you about the direction that the

party is going. And this particular one between Congressman Andy Levin, who we just had on and Haley Stevens will have on tomorrow, is very growing, very heated. Eleven doubling down on his negative interviews against Stephen seeing that he's just

drawing a contrast. We actually have one of those election ads funded by Drace J. Street Action Fund, supporting Levin and calling out Stevens for some of of her past move Hayley Stevens is taking hundreds of thousands of dollars from a group that's supporting one and nine Republicans who voted to overturn the election. Republican billionaires gave the group millions to defeat Democrats like Andy Levin, even after we saw how Republicans nearly overturned the election. On January six,

Stevens keeps accepting the group's money and support. No campaign cash is worth abandoning our Democrats. And so yeah, that is an add noting the amount of funding that Hayley Stevens have gotten from a I pack. It's been a huge amount. But even at this point, the race is still expected to be a relatively close one, but you're seeing more of these negative ads go up and want to bring in our all star panel of Bloomberg Politics

contributors Genie she and Zano and Rick Davis. Rick talked to me a little bit about the strategy that Andy Lovin's using here. When do candidates go negative and what do they hope to achieve from that? Well, it's it's it's really a timing against you know, when voters are really looking at the election, and it's usually you know, sixty days before the primary or general election, and and

and and some go early. Some as you know, start all at the very beginning of the campaign start pounding away. But in this case, I mean, you know, these are two people who work together. You know, I thought your interview with and He was kind of interesting, and it's like, hey, you know, you guys did a lot together in your colleagues, and there aren't that many instances where you know, you're you're pitting two existing colleagues together in one district because

of redistricting, and so uh, you know. But but look, this has been a pretty raucous campaign today. And and my guess is part of what decision you make when you go negative is that you're losing. And when you're losing and you go negative, that usually is an indication that this is the last ditch effort to try and repair the outcome of the election. And for you, yeah, I mean, you have this primary coming up at this point on August two, so it's only a handful of

weeks away. At this point, early voting has already started in the district. UM, and so a number of people I know, I was actually in the district the other week doing some reporting on this race. A number of people they've already requested their absentee belts and they've started to fill things out. So it's it's here, it's going on right now. UM, And Jeanie, I just wanted to come just just ask you a little bit about what this race is going to mean because Hayley Stevens and

Andy Levin, they are pretty similar candidates. I mean, you can make the argument that Levin is a little bit more progressive, but if you look at their voting records, you look at their time in office, it's widely the same. So what our voters going to decide on here, Well, you know, I think that part of what they're getting is, you know, just listening to your interview with Levin as he is really trying to stress his progressive you know, kudos, and that is something that I think is going to

be appealing to many people in the district. But you know, I'm reflecting back as you were talking to Levin that many Democrats were utterly furious with him for not running in the tenth district, where two thirds of his constituents are. He chose to run against a colleague, as you've been talking about, and that has you know, sort of you know, listening to the ads that have been going on, it has gotten really really ugly out there, and negative ads

do work. People get information from them. So they're trying to stress the positive things about themselves, like his progressive tendencies, but also the negatives about their opponents, and those stick in the minds of voters and that's something they'll take into account. I mean, Genie, if Lovin does wind up pulling out a victory here on August two, does that sort of say that the Democratic Party overall is moving to a more progressive place than it has in previous years.

You know, I'm always hesitant to read that much into it. We have a lot of races this cycle, and I always think that the local issues matter, the local candidates matter, constituent service as you know, as somebody from Michigan matters, So all those things are taken to account. But to your point, there is a good deal of energy on

the progressive left. So if progressives are able to pull this out, particularly when they don't have as much funding as their challengers, that does say something at least about which Democrats are going out in these primary elections. Unfortunately, for our primaries, turnout is still fairly low, so we can't read too much into it. By way of the general election are certainly a presidential race. And Jimmie, I know you had that now on the head right there.

It's turnout, turnout, turnout, who can inspire the most people, particularly for for this race. But since you did bring it up real quick, I am going to note that you do have Michigan's tenth district right next door. It does include part of Levin's old district. Um and that way you don't have an incumbent running in it. Uh, it's a district that leans a little bit Republican. And I'm wondering, Rick Davison in the last sort of thirty seconds we have right here, is it possible for Democrats

to even win a district like that this year? Yeah, I don't think so. You know, we've been talking about this uh district that Levinson and that's actually probably gotten more democratic. I mean, it was a Hillary Clinton district when she lost Michigan to Donald Trump, and so this is a this is a solid Democratic district. But I think anything short of this ten points out and Republicans have a good chance of picking up some of these uh,

weaker Democratic districts. Great Genie, thank you guys so much. I know that you'll be sticking around. We'll be talking with you in just a minute. But first we're gonna have a conversation with Bregg Duro about the Maryland primaries tomorrow.

I'm Emily Wilkins. This is Bloomberg Broadcasting Live. From our nation's capital, Bloomberg to New York, Bloomberg eleven, Frio to Boston, Bloomberg one O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to the Country Serious x M General one nine and around the globe the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew. We are one d thirteen days away from the November

midterm elections. But if you live in Maryland, your election day is tomorrow at least for the primaries, and there are some interesting ones out there. We're going to get a full breakdown of the races to watch up next with Bloomberg Government's Greg Darrow, our elections guru. Here. Well, right now we are joined by Greg Borrow, Bloomberg Government election reporter and my number one person to turn to when I have any sort of questions on elections, on districts,

on how things are playing out. Greg, Thank you so much for joining us today. Um, I just I'm going to toss this right over to you because you know this so well. What are the key races in Maryland to watch tomorrow? Yeah? Well, Maryland is the only state holding a primary in the month of July, so what

sort of has the months to itself. And the top primary I think to watch is in the fourth Congressional District, which is an overwhelmingly Democratic area that includes most of Prince George's County in a small part of Montgomery County which are but Washington, d C. It's basically a two person race in the Democratic primary between Donna Edwards, who was the congresswoman for that area from seventeen and Glenn Ivy, was Prince George's County's top prosecutor who sought this seat

in and finished as the runner up to the current Congressman, Anthony Brown, who's leaving an open to run for state attorney General. And Edwards and Ivy I think see eye eye on policy, and so we're seeing a lot of outside money spent that pretty much magnify the very small differences between the two candidates. But whoever wins this primary, Emily is a shirt of winning on November the eighth, because it's such an overwhelmingly Democratic district. And we know

we've talked about a lot about redistricting. How much did Maryland's maps actually change in the past year, And who's been affected by these changes. It was quite a story. I mean, Maryland was one of those states where Democrats had full control of registricting have to start, meaning they had the control of the They controlled overwhelming majorities in

the state legislature. There is a Republican governor of Maryland, Larry Hogan, but so democratic is Maryland that the legislature could override his veto And that's what they did on the very first map that they put forward that could

have elected Democrats in all eight congressional districts in Maryland. Um. But a court, a state court in Maryland, struck that map down and told the legislature to draw a remedial map, which it did, and Larry Hogan signed UM that favors clearly favors Republicans in one district on the Eastern Shore, but also gives the party a shot at a second district, the sixth district that Democratic Congressman David Trone will be defending.

So um, it could have been eight to zero Democratic and a good good night for Democrats and the old the initial map, this map, I think it's a six to one to one map. You know, you've got one clearly Republican district and one more competitive district. Still, I mean that it favors Democrats, but Republicans are probably can expect more than the Republicans will probably do better than he could have expected otherwise. Yeah, I know that's the story for a couple of different states, like New York.

With that head it's mount finalized, it looked really great for Democrats, and then they're like, oh, nope, you need another map, and now you're seeing many more competitive seats. Greg, I know that, as you mentioned, Maryland's kind of the big state with primaries in the month of July. Let's look ahead just a little bit to the month of August. What are the next couple of interesting primaries coming up.

We've talked a lot about Michigan's eleventh district with Hayley Stevens and Andy Levin, but what else is on your radar. There's quite a lot going on in August, which is might be a slow month legislatively. That's when members tend to get out of town. They don't want to be in DC in August. But you have a lot of elections going on back in their home districts and states. Um On August two, the first Tuesday, of the month, you have a five states voting Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Ury,

and Washington State. UM. I'd note that three of the House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump over January six will be defending their seats on that date. UM. You have in Michigan you have a Republican Congressman Peter Meyer from the Grand Rapids area as a primary challenge of Democrats are also contesting that seat in November. And then in Washington State you have Jamie Herrera Butler in the third district in the southwestern part of the state.

And then in the kind of central Washington you have Dan new House, who also voted doing peach Trump, will be defending his seat. Washington uses it what's known as the top two primary, where everyone runs on one ballot. So UM, you need to finish better than third to avoid getting bounced in the primary. And that's been difficult for some of those Republicans who did vote to impeach Trump. I mean, of that group, I know a number of them have decided to retire. But then I believe you

saw Tom Rice down in South Carolina. He lost his primary pretty badly, and most of it is just because you know, he has that conservative record, but he voted to impeach Trump, and and and that seemed to be enough. That was And then in California, Republican Congressman David Valadeo narrowly advanced in his primary out there. Um, Trump didn

really intervened in that race. I think maybe because of Kevin McCarthy, who's neighbors a district that Valadeo has, may have prevailed upon the former president to stay out of that race. But Valadeo is probably the only Republican who could win that district in November. Uh So, Yeah, ten of the ten Republicans to do impeached Trump. Uh six of them were seeking re election for them decided to retire.

So we've had two of them had to go through the have had to go through the crucible of of primaries. And then you've got four left. Three as we mentioned on August, a second and then the last one is the biggest one probably at them all. On August Liz Cheney in Wyoming. Yeah, that one is going to be particularly interesting. Is there any chance at this point that that Liz Cheney actually winds up pulling out a victory here it's really hard to see based on the polling.

I mean, police shows are well behind UM, and it seems like the the the anti Cheney vote has coalesced around one candidate, Harriet Hagman, who's the choice of Foreign President Trump. UM. If there had been say four or five serious candidates who could split the anti Cheney vote and allow her to win with a plurality, I mean that would that would certainly benefit her. But because the uh, most of the anti Cheney vote will be will accrue to Harriet Hagman, I mean, that's that's not a good

sign for for Cheney. Yeah, it's going to definitely certainly be a difficult race for her. I know you were tweeting out today, Uh, some of the folks who have donated to her, and it's really eye popping to see saw many of her colleagues have donated to her opponent, Harriet Hagman. Greg, we've only got about thirty seconds left, so I'm gonna put you on the spot here with a really short answer. New York primaries are also coming up.

What's the one race to watch? The member versus member matchup between Jerry Nader and Caroline Maloney to thirty year incumbents of of chair committees. Uh, they're they were forced into a into a into an incoming versus income into face off. That's the tough boat boom Greg Gerrow, Bloomberg Government. This is Bloomberg, Thanks so much. This is Bloomberg sound On on Bloomberg Radio. This is Emily Wilkins in today for Joe Matthew. Well, Democrats are mad, and they're mad

at Joe Mansion. We heard from Congressman Andy Leven at the top of this hour. Who is He's inventing his frustration and he's really not the only one. After Mansion said on Friday that he would not support climate or tax provisions inside of larger reconciliation package. If you're wondering what that reconciliation packages, that's that build back better thing that we were all talking about. A couple of months ago.

It looked like Democrats were going to be able to get something done that did include climate, that did include taxes, and then on Friday Mansion said no, uh, that that he would not be able to support it. At that time, Senator Bernie Sanders had a tough critique of his West Virginia colleague on ABC's This Week. The problem was that we continue to talk to Mansion like he was serious. He was like, this is a guy who is a major recipient of fossil fuel money. Joined now by Bloomberg

Politics contributors Genie Chanzano and Rick Davis. Genie, is this anger warranted? You know? The Democratic anger at Joe Mansion is uh frustrating to some of us, and I include myself in that in part because they started out with a bill at three point five trillion dollars. I mean, let me just stress that three point five trillion dollars and if you're Briny Sanders, it was six trillions. It was thank you very much, in a fifty fifty Senate,

nobody could explain what was in it. It was large, It was, you know, a massive expansion of the social safety net, and so there was no way it was going to pass. You and I have talked about this, and I this morning woke up optimistic about Democrats. If you told me they could get two bills passed the summer before mid term, saving prescription drugs, saving money on prescription drugs, and a chips bill, that's a big win

for Democrats. I don't know why they just don't take it, you know, applaud themselves, clap themselves on the back, and move forward. They're frustrated, but they're frustrated and they're they're venting at Joe Mansion. And you know, the House wasn't assured to pass something that big. Look at the people who wouldn't have done anything without the change in salt

for example. So you know, to me, it's there's a big win to be had here for two big bills in the summer before a really tough mid term election. They should be happy, seen a lot of optimism. They're just also noting because I don't think we've actually said it yet on this show. So at this point, what this Reconciliation bill would do is that it would allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices in theory lowering those costs

of those drugs, and extend enhanced Medicare subsidies for two years. Rick, how badly do Democrats actually need to get this done at this point? Just those two items? Yeah, I think just those two items. I mean, they've been promising prescription drug relief for a long time, and they're in a majority in the House, Senate, and the White House, and so if they don't deliver it, it'll be a pretty abject failure for them. And the A C a UM

subsidy issue is a time bomb. I mean, it's a huge number, and it affects thirteen million Americans, and it's it's a flaw on the law that that you really do need this subsidy to make insurance companies willing to write the policies. And and the reality is if they don't do it, it's going to have a huge backlash with thirteen million of what I would argue probably are the majority of those are their voters. So they're gonna do a lot of damage their base if they don't

deliver on these two items. Certainly many people when they look at their insurance payments for healthcare, they would certainly be feeling this if Democrats cannot get something passed. G I know that you think that Democrats just need to celebrate this as a win. But when I was in Michigan talking to voters the other week, I did have a number of them say, you know, Democrats promised all

this stuff in the bill. They promised childcare tax credits and pre K education and all of these other items, and they're not getting it done, and there was frustration there. I mean, if Democrats hurt themselves by by over promising and under delivering. Yes, in one word, they overpromised in a fifty fifty Senate and and Joe Biden knew it, and I think the strategy here it was an abject failure.

They should not have overpromised and under delivered. You know, you're talking about the prescription drubs, the A C A subsidies, that will be the largest healthcare bill in years. It's those healthcare bills that matter to voters in eighteen it's you know, it's why the Democrats were able to capture the House. This could be a big moment for Democrats. I understand there's a lot more that people want, but when inflation as high as it is, that is not

something that's going to happen. And so, yes, they overpromised and under delivered, and voters have a right to be frustrated, but they also will be happy if they get this part of this bill done. Since we're speaking on voters, I do have to of course touch on one of the number one issues on voters minds at this moment, which is the price of gas. A White House Council

of Economic Advisors. Jared Bernstein spoke to Bloomberg Television earlier today about the Biden administration's plan to tackle inflation and the oil crisis. This president has pledged to do all he can to ensure that we have an ample supply of oil to ease inflationary pressure is particularly at the pump, and so his release of the strategic reserves, two barrels when you include our global partner are already in the system,

and he continues to push to ensure unample global supply. Rick, I just want to get a general sense at this point. I mean, how much our gas prices going to factor into this election. I know that they're pretty high, but there's certainly many other things going on right now. Yeah, they're they're pretty high, but they may have peaked. I mean, you know, in about half the states it's now less than four dollars a gallon, and so if it does continue to come down, it'll have a positive impact on

people's attitudes. Uh, And I think that it's part of what has fueled this really negative public and prion of the president and his administration. I mean, he's got the lowest polling ratings of any modern president at this point in his administration. And a lot of that is because of inflation. And the biggest driver behind inflation are these gas prices. I mean, Rick, following that logic, then could

we actually see a one eight happen here? If gas prices come down low enough, could Biden's approval rating and go back up and Democrats have more of a chance to keep the House and an spanning the Senate come November. Well that's certainly the democrats hope, right, is that gas gas prices have peaked and and his approval rating his hit bottom. And so if one can come down and the other can come up, they stand a better chance in the November elections. But look, uh, there are a

lot of other things contributing to inflation. I mean, you know, housing prices, food, these things continue to put pressure on upward side. So the reality is, even though they may make progress on gas prices, they may not make ultimately enough progress on inflation. And of course that's what's biting American in the wallet right now. And Genie, I just want to get your take on on this one. I mean, how closely are gas price is going to be correlated

to how well Democrats and Republicans do come November. Well, the closest correlation for these mid terms is going to be presidential approval, as you were just talking about, and that is closely correlated with inflation and certainly gas prices. So it is something and that's why the President has been trying to focus on it that you know can

have a huge impact in these mid terms. So you know, historically, unfortunately for the President and Democrats, you don't see much change in polling in this regard in the summer before moving into that midfall mid term election. But that aside, they're going to keep trying to address it. They're going to hope that they're able to move the needle on gas prices. But there's other factors here that can also

help them. One big one would be if Donald Trump does what he is hinting on doing and announces he is going to run for president. That might be, in my view, the biggest boon for Democrats, because there's nothing that gets Democrats out then anger at Donald Trump, the idea he might run may get them out. And if

this is a turnout election, that could help move the needle. Also, candidates in the Senate you know, they're going to lose the House, they may hold on or pick up a bit in the Senate, the Democrats, and that would be because some of these Senate candidates are not candidates that are able to really, you know, really appeal to voters in these states. So we're looking at Georgia, We're looking at states like Pennsylvania. So those two factors I think

are really also going to potentially help Democrats. We've also touched on a couple of times the fact that there is another big piece of legislation that Democrats and Republicans are working on right now. This was supposed to be the US China Competitiveness Bill. Right now we have seen that really shrink. It's going to feel ironic to say shrink. With the next sentence, I'm going to say it's shrinked down to only fifty two billion dollars for chips and semiconductors.

Rick Davis, what sort of your takeaway from the fact that they're just moving this through. Is this something that's going to also help Democrats in in the mid terms or is this something that's really going to just raise all boats for incumbents. Yeah, Emily, it is pretty sad day when if it's not over a hundred billion dollars, we don't really take it too seriously. But this is

a big event. I mean, basically, what Mansion has allowed to have happened is by scuttling most of this reconciliation and bill, he's starting to get a green light from Republican leadership in the Senate to move forward with this Chips Act you seek, whatever you wanna call it, and and that will be a bipartisan win. And most of the big wins in this administration have been bipartisan wins. And so uh, even though I think it helps the administration,

it gets stuff done, probably more than Republicans. Uh, it's not going to happen without Republican votes, and in this case, they'll have plenty of them. And Jennie last thirty seconds, I just wanted to see our Democrats going to be harmed by the fact that so much of the things they were pushing to get into this bill now ultimately might not make it. In the names of just doing semiconductors, no, I I think voters are not going to be as

focused on what didn't get in there. I think it's better that they get this through and as Rick said, there's bipartisan support for this. John corn and tweeting over the weekend Republicans ready to move forward. Democrats should be as well. In Gena Romando, I think deserves a lot of credit for pushing this. As she said, big win for China if we don't get this done. So there's

a lot of bipartisan support for pushing this through. Yeah, she was in Congress last week with a very similar message of urgency at this point, and we're gonna start seeing the Senate vote on it, but we could potentially see a House vote this week, certainly something we're going to continue to cover, probably tomorrow because I'm back. I'm going to continue hosting sound on a well, have Haley Stevens with us. But right now, Jimmie Schanzano, Rick Davis,

our excellent contributors, thank you so much. See you again tomorrow. This is Bloomberg