Sound On: Gas Tax Holiday Gimmick, Did Powell Predict a Recession?

I would not think so. Now did J Powell just predict a recession? As close as you can get if you're the chairman of the Fed. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. President Biden calls for a gas tax holiday without the support of Capitol Hill. Welcome to the fastest hour in politics, as the President speaks from the White House on this even as FED Chair J.

Powell answers tough questions in the Senate about inflation. Will be seeking answers from Bloomberg International Economics and Policy correspondent Mike McKee in the Capitol today and with our panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Genie Chantano with us for the hour later. Another primary night in America cuts both ways for Donald Trump will look at the results from Alabama, Georgia, and Virginia with Bloomberg Elections reporter Greg Jarrow.

President Biden is going for it. We talked about this quite a bit yesterday, so you were smarter than everyone else at the cocktail party. The gas tax holiday is now apparently in favor at the White House. But I will remind you the President cannot do this on his own, calling on Congress to suspend the eighteen cent to gallon tax for three months. The big concern here, of course, is that oil companies may or may not pass it on.

By suspending the eighteen cent gas tax federal gas tax for the next ninety days, we can bring down the price of gas and give family. It's just a little bit of relief. I call on the company's to pass this along, every penny of this eighteenth cent reduction to the consumers. Okay, so let's see if that happens. As an important meeting tomorrow at the White House, the heads of the major oil companies will be asked, urged, prodded.

I don't know how you describe this to start increasing production. Now, as I mentioned, that's one side of Pennsylvania Avenue. On the other, J Powell, the FED share taking tough questions in a Senate committee about, of course, his plan to rein in inflation. And the big question is can you do that without causing a recession? Do you agree, with the respect of the if interest rates go too high, too fast, it could drive us into a recession. It's

certainly a possibility. It's not our intended outcome at all, but it's certainly a possibility. And and frankly, the events of the last few months around the world have have have made it more difficult for us to achieve what we want, which is two percent inflation and still a strong labor market. That was John Tester, by the way, senator from Montana, asking the question, So we want to bring in Mike McKee for more on this, Bloomberg International

Economics and Policy correspondent. It's great to have you back, Mike. Welcome, Thanks Joe. Did J Powell just predict a recession as close as you can get If you're the chairman of the FED, you can't really admit that there's going to be a recession? Because imagine what would happen in the markets if he said something like that. Would be like the skipper of a baseball team coming out and saying we're gonna lose every game, but hey, come watch anyway.

So so yeah, he had he admitted the truth that it's going to be very difficult to stick the soft landing, as it were, and most economists are predicting that we will have a downturn. Some think it will be very mild, some think it will not be. But the history shows that when the Fed starts tightening significantly, that's going to the cases you're gonna end up with a recession. And the problem here is that there's so much the Fed

can't do anything about. So you can't really bring down gasoline prices unless they really crushed demand, which set you up for a recession. All right. So that's where Elizabeth Warren came in today asking very similar questions to what we've been asking here on the broadcast. And I'm pretty sure you asked J Powell himself in the news conference following the meeting last week. If you cannot fix food prices and oil prices, then what exactly is the point

of this exercise? Here's Warren and Powell. Well, gas prices go down as a result of your interest rate increase. I would not think so. Now, Well, the Fed's interest rate increases bring food prices down for families, I wouldn't say so now right now, the FED has no control over the main drivers of rising prices. You know what's worse than high inflation and low unemployment. It's high inflation and a recession with millions of people out of work.

And I hope you'll reconsider that as you drive this before you drive this economy off a cliff. So I guess for starters, is she correct? And is this a case secondly of who wants to tell her that's actually

what they're planning to do? Well, you notice it with Warren tends to be a little more dramatic in public hearings, and and and it's obvious that the FED doesn't have control over gasoline and food prices, except, as I said, if you really raise an interest rate high like Paul Volker did, crush demand, you get a recession, and then gasoline prices will come down because people won't be driving. But it is a difficult situation that the FED is in, and there are some people, and Warren seems to be

in that camp. Uh. Danny Blanche Flower, who is a regular on BLUEBIRG radio and television, is a professor at Dartmouth College. Um has argued that we are in or very close to recession, and the FED should be thinking about cutting rates because of that, because by the time it becomes obvious, it's too late. So there's a small camp that argues there could be a recession, that the Fed could go too far and that they should back

off from raising rates. But the Fed and the economists are focused on the idea that inflation is high enough that they need to keep going or it gets entrenched in inflation expectations, and then it's very hard to eradicate President Biden today announcing this suspension of the federal gas tacks. How is he doing this when no one in Washington seems to think that this is a good idea, well, including Nancy Pelos I would say that there's nothing special

about Washington. No one around the country or around the world thinks he needs Yeah, he needs Congress to pass it, and Uh, Congress, from everything I understand, is not of a mind to do that. And maybe he knows that, and and and it's it's this is something you can throw out free everything. We thought about it, and we could have helped you. But any economists will tell you if you subsidize something, people are going to buy more

of it. And if you could have people buy more gasoline and you don't have more gasoline, which is our situation now, then those people the price is going to go up, not down. That will require significant demand destruction. Wouldn't just keeping prices where they are caused that on their own. Well, here's the other thing that people aren't thinking about is trees don't grow to the sky. And gasoline prices and oil prices have been going up, but

they're kind of topping out. I mean, we've had this volatility down sharply, but they've been going up and down in a certain range. And as long as on a percentage basis, they aren't still rising above their previous highs, then you're not going to have a percentage increase in

gasoline and oil prices. Uh So the inflationary aspect of it, which inflation being a broad rise in the price level, isn't going to be taking place, and so they sort of fall out of the calculation just because oils at one twenty or you're paying five dollars a gallon for gasoline. If you don't get to six, then there's no more inflation in gasoline prices. There are just high prices. Is the trip to Saudi Arabia the closest thing this president

will find actually impacting the global price of oil? If he gets the saudiast to pump more. Sure, if they pump more, the global price of oil will go down. Now, the question is does that show up in something that the consumer cares about, because refinery capacities at like right

now and the rest are down for maintenance. So even if you get more, you can't really produce more oil given the situation, And none of the refiners want to reopen mothballed refineries or build new ones because Joe Biden says we're going to get rid of that gasolating powered cars. So there's I mean, why make a billion dollar investment.

So at this point, yeah, he can bring down the price of oil and that will help on the margins, and it will help it makes the input costs to refiners lower, so prices could go down a little bit, but it isn't going to have the kind of impact on the consumer that might help him tremendously politically. It will help consumers a little bit because prices will go down in businesses, we'll see input costs for things like chemicals and raw materials. So the skeptic would say, this

is the big wind up to the trip. You do what you can with the tax piece. You already released a million of barrels a day from the from the spr You have your meeting with executives on Thursday. Now you're in the clear to do the real job, which is to ask MBS to pump more. Yeah, and I mean it'd be interesting to see how that goes over given the crown prince's history, political history, and to see if Biden gets more credit or more criticism for doing it.

But this is one of those situations where you go back to the old saying that the countries have no friends, they just have interests and um, it is very difficult for presidents to do some of these things. But in the interests of the American people, maybe Biden feels he can swallow the US pride or whatever it is and

ask for more. This is why he used to host his own political talk show, right here on Bloomberg not only covering the FED, but you're the best at that too, And that's why we always love spending some time with Mike McKee, especially when you're in Washington. Thank you, Mike, have a safe trip home to see Human Studio, much like Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributor, is with us in

Washington today as well. Uh Rick, I wanted to ask you about this gas tax holiday specifically because when you were running the McCain campaign in two thousand and eight, did something that you had proposed then as well. The reason for that, I can only assume, as we just discussed, is to be seen doing something right at least we tried everything we had. Was that. What was going through your your heads at the time, Yeah, you gotta have you gotta have something to give to the American people

who are suffering from you know, high gas prices. I mean, you think about it. Back then, I think gas was like, you know, three eight and oil was over a hundred fourteen dollars a barrel, right, so like, and that was in two thousand eight, So those dollars go a long way today and and and so quite a bit higher arguably than they are now exactly, and and and and of course we're in a financial out down, you know,

across the board. So, uh, but we knew it was bad policy, right, I mean, like taking nine billion dollars it's ten billion now, but nine billion dollars out of the Highway Trust Fund just to make people, you know, give them eighteen cents or whatever the number was back in in in two thousand eight, alleviation from the pump. I mean, it's a gimmick. I mean, like we knew it was a gimmick at the time. Right. One of the other options we said, why don't we just give

him the money? Well, right, said it Jack, Yes, and and and at least it's you're not have to worry about the oil company's taking it exactly. You're you're a little more earnest in the fact that you're just subsidizing the American don't spend it on whatever they want. To be clear, there's no support for this on either side of the aisle on Capitol Hill nor today. It's today,

it's a it's seen as a gimmick. The reason the President is doing it is so that he has something to say to the American people, Well, we're gonna fold in Genie Chanzano, our panel coming up next, and we'll give you a sense of what they are saying on Capitol Hill, both d's and rs as we try to bring you both sides of this. Here the fastest hour in Paula Tix rolls on will update markets and traffic for you to so stay with us. I'm Joe Matthew

in Washington. This he is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg sond On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. How speaker Nancy Pelosi called it show biz, reminding us of when Barack Obama called the gas tax holiday a gimmick back in two thousand eight. But listen to how Joe Mansion reacted to this idea today. The Senator from West Virginia was asked about it by a b C News. Which politician up here is going to be voting to put that eighteen cent tax back on a month before the November election.

So we just dig the whole deeper and deeper and deeper. The timing is tough. Let's assemble the panel for more on all of this. Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Chanzano and Rick Davis with us for the hour. Genie, we need to hear your voice here as the Democrats are apparently as opposed to this as a lot of Republicans on Capitol Hill. What's the motivation here at the White House today?

You know, I think the motivation is they're trying to show that they're using all the tools and their tool belt, even if they you know, uh, and I say tools and their tool but they really don't have this one, but you know, just to show that they are trying

to do what they can to push through anything. I think the danger here is number one, not just the fact Congress probably won't pass it and it may not get passed on to consumers, but this focus, uh, the president has doesn't seem to be sustained on addressing the

energy problem. There's these one off policies like one hit, wonders one day, this one day that, and that's a problem for him politically, and I think many people, particularly on the left, are asking themselves, you know, essentially, who is Joe Biden. He could have used the challenge in Ukraine and the challenge with prices to push for renewables. You know, the old saying, don't let a good crisis go to waste. Why hasn't he pushed for something that

people on the Democratic side believe in. This is not it, and he's going to talk about it. It won't get through, and I fear politically it does him. You know, I don't think it doesn't much damage, but I don't think it doesn't much good either. Wouldn't bring down the price of gas now, though, Rick, which is what the White House needs. Yeah, and they need a summer of driving

that has some relief to the consumer. And and the reality is, but between congressional recesses coming up and the inability to get something like this pass, I mean, they're just never going to see any kind of relief. So people are gonna hit the road for their summer vacations, packed the kids and the dogs in the car, and

they're gonna pay full price at the pump. Reaction from Republicans today in the Senate Senator John Thune, what the administration, of course is coming up with is yet another gimmick, another band aid, and something they know is dead on arrival up here in Congress, which apparently everyone agrees with. I Look, things could change, I guess Senator John Barrasso had a bit more poetry to spend. Joe Biden, the president of painfully high prices, is throwing another desperate Hail

Mary pass. It's the so called gas tax holiday. The holiday the American people need is a holiday from Joe Biden's terrible energy policies. My god, Genie, did he just make it worse. The President was supposed to give people something good to talk about. Yeah, he was, And this again is the fear. And I think this is what

we've seen with the Biden presidency. He hasn't been able to show the American public who he is, in part because the constituency he ran on was trying to stitch together these progressives and these moderates, and I don't think he's gotten to express who he really is. And again, if he's committed to renewables, if he's committed to a long term solution, it may not immediately bring down gas prices, but at least it would be an authentic version. If that is what it is of who he is and

who the administration is. This is a losing proposition. And you know, my question has been why take the time in the days to think about this. He comes on board and says this today, by my account, we have no more congressmen or women supporting it than we did certainly not mention and by the way, no more states saying they would go along with it at this point other than the nineteen And if you don't get the states, the consumers don't feel that what's really supposed to be

felt here. So I'm not sure why they took the time if they didn't bring people along. Today he dumps this and we don't see more support for it in Congress or the states. Strike you as just a strange decision, Rick, Or is the point just to get the get the sound cut on the air? President's given you wants at least a gas tax holiday, uh? As opposed to you know, spending time whipping votes trying to get a coalition together here. Sure you could, you could make the argument that he's

just trying to put Congress on the defense. Right, Oh, I wanted to give you there gas tack holiday. But the problem is half of those are his guys. I mean, half of those are Democrats. And what are they going to say about this? I mean, you've heard Joe Manchin is just a gimmick. The as a joke, It's not gonna happen then on arrival. I mean, but like he's

putting his own party who's on the ballot. He's not on the ballot in in six months, his party is, and his party's got to go and explain why this administration isn't doing much to alleviate their pain at the pump. And and so I I really think it's a mistake. I mean, he also got caught today in a you know, sort of an effort to try and pick on the oil industry again, Like the CEO of of Chevron sent a letter out saying, hey, quit picking on is just in skin. But it's all these permits to drill, you

should be drilling. I mean, like it's not helpful in this conversation to keep bringing up things that actually aren't gonna make any difference. You know, we started this hour talking about J. Powell today his testimony. You had a recession to all of this, which might actually be the only way they can get rid of the inflation problem right now. And boy, I don't know what kind of a final chapter we can write here to make it

more depressing. But does President Biden need to start preparing people for that or is that just not the job of the commander in chief. He has to talk up the economy when in public. Yeah, I guess he could just rely on Powell to do it for him, as he did today. And you know it's speaking of you know, not much of an affinity between the two um to

my mind. You know, when Powell was asked if inflation was high, you know, in terms of the war, if you know this putin price hike, is has any you know, realistic, if there's any truth to that, he basically sold Joe Biden down the river, saying nope, no truth to Daday either. So bad news or Biden all around. Today. What a day.

We're only halfway through the hour, Genie, Thank you. Rick Davis will be back as we turned to primary night and we'll run through the results with Bloomberg Elections reporter Greg Jarrow. Very interesting turnout in Georgia and not good for Donald Trump left. More on that next, This is Bloomberg. Remember when Moe Brooks was calling himself Maga Mo American Patriots start taking down names and kicking ass. Yeah, that

was on January six. Mo Brooks, the Trump loyalists indeed spoke at the rally on the ellipse when he urged the crowd to start taking down names. American patriots start taking down names and taking as well. He went a lot further than that at that rally. If you listen to our ancestors sacrifice their blood, their sweat, their tears, their fortunes, and sometimes their lives to give us their descendants in America, that is the greatest nation in world history.

So I have a question for you. Are you willing to do the same? My answer is yes, Louder, are you willing to do what it takes to fight for America? Just hours before the attack on the capitol of your louder, will you fight for America? Now, imagine a world in which Trump endorsed someone else. Yeah, this was the Trump loyalist Maga Mo. But when things weren't going great in his campaign for Senate in Alabama, Donald Trump rescinded his endorsement and gave it to Katie Britt And she won

by a lot last night. So that's a score for Trump. It didn't go quite so well for Trump and Georgia. As we bring in Bloomberg's Gregg Jarrow, it's kind of like the day after Christmas when Gregg comes over the house. We do this every Wednesday, almost Greg, Thanks for being here, welcome back. I'd like to ask you about a couple of these, starting with Alabama that wasn't just a loss, that was a wipeout for Mo Brooks. Yeah, Mo Brooks

lost by more than points to Katie Britt. And yes, Donald Trump did initially endorsed Moe Brooks and then Mo Brooks last August told a crowd at a Trump rally they should move on from the election and that didn't

sit well crowd, but Trump did. But Trump did not rescind his endorsement of Brooks until March, seven months later, when it was clear that Brooks was fading in the polls, and actually after Trump resented his endorsement, Brooks qualified for the runoff, and then Trump endorsed Katie Britt eleven days before the runoff when it was clear She's going to win. So Trump and his team are very mindful of his win loss record and endorsements endorsements in primaries, and Katie

Britt would have won without Trump's backing for sure. I'm glad you pointed that out. By the way, that this was less than two weeks before the primary or this final runoff here that Donald Trump actually endorsed Katie Britt. That's despite, by the way, my goodness, those who still supported Moe Brooks, Marjorie Taylor Green. Uh, it was Hannish, Sean Hannity, a lot of folks who would normally be

in line with Donald Trump, remembering January six. I mean, what an evolution, Greg, How do we explain it other than the influence of Trump. Yeah, Well, Brooks as um, Brooks never been a great state wide candy actually ran for the Senate before. Remember our listeners, remember that seventeen special Senate election after Jeff Sessions resigned to become Trump's

first Attorney General. There was a special sent election held and Mo Brooks ran for that Senate seat and finished a distant third behind Curtis I'm sorry, Luther Strange and um Roy Moore remember him, and uh, um so he's Mo Brooks has never been a strong statewide candidate. His appeal has always been kind of sectional to his to

his part of northern Alabama. And um, the you know, certainly the quote unquote establishment led by you know, Richard Shelby, Chamber of Commerce, some other allied Republican groups made clear that they were going in all in for Katie Britt over Mo Brooks. We should not that Katie Britt worked for Shelby, was his chief of staff. Uh in Georgia. Meantime, Uh, not good for Donald Trump. I mean this has just been one after the other here both of his endorsed

congressional candidates lost. Did you see that coming? Was that in the cards? Yes? I thought that both of them would lose, maybe not by the overwhelming margins by which they lost. So, Jake Evans was Trump's back candidate in a suburban Atlanta district that's open. He lost by a two to one margin to a surgeon named Rich McCormick, who um is still a very pro Trump candidate, and

even in the tenth district. The other one, Vernon Jones, a former Democratic state representative who ran for Congress as a Republican UM. Basically, he won Trump's endorsement because he decided not to run for governor because that would have siphoned votes away from David Purdue, who Trump endorsed against Brian Brian Kemp. Vernon Jones only got about a quarter

of the vote there. He lost overwhelmingly to a trucking company executive named Mike Collins, who, even though he didn't have Trump's endorsements, said he was quote unapologetically pro Trump. So even Trump's endorsed candidates. When when when Trump's endorsed candidates don't win, pro Trump candidates are winning. It's incredible Collins was endorsed by Governor Brian Kemp, right just to

rub a little bit assault in the wound. Who was yeah, quite a quite another proxy fight, and Trump was I think looking for a uh you know, a face saving win after his resoundingly unsuccessful efforts to ou It's not only Brian Kemp in the primary, which failed overwhelmingly, but also the Attorney General of Georgia and of course Secretary of State Brad Raefensberger, who won his primary over a trumped back to congressman on the same day he was

testifying before the January six committee. Uh that Vernon Jones Mike Collins race got pretty ugly, Greg that we I was reading reports of Collins was was actually sending out rape whistles, uh to remind people that Vernon Jones have been accused of sexual assaults. I mean, this got this got pretty tough. It really did. I watched a debate between the two candidates. While that issue didn't come up, um, it certainly did um in in Mailer's and in other communications,

and it really got pretty bad um vernon Jones. Yeah, right, a lot of really uh, you know, it's a really really tough, nasty race, one of the one of the toughest ones I've I've seen, certainly in Georgia politics in some time. But yeah, Collins won that race overwhelmingly, And even though he didn't have Trump's endorsement, He's still going to be a strongly conservative Republican congressman who will promote Trump's views. So the Trump endorsement is obviously not going

very far in Georgia. We get that when you factor in results from North Carolina and South Carolina. The primaries we've had so far for Trump backed House candidates have now lost their primaries. When you step back, Greg, how's the Trump brand doing overall? Is this? Is this a mixed record at best? Yeah, mixed on even at best. And it's kind of hard to gauge the power of his endorsement how many votes that actually brings. UM. I mean, typically his endorsements come in the form of press releases

and earned media. He doesn't do that many in person rallies. It's pretty rare. Um and his superpack and his kind of political apparatus, even though it's very flush with cash, has really spent a lot of money, uh at all against candidates the opposes, so um, you know, and like I said, he likes to, you know, cherry picks some of his endorsements when he really wants to use up that win loss record. Greg Drel, Bloomberg's elections expert, Thanks for coming over the house again. Maybe we'll do this

after the next primary. As we reassemble the panel. Next, we want to hear from Rick and Genie on this on sound On. This is Bloomberg, This is Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. He did say this today to political By the way, the aforementioned Moe Brooks says he's retiring from politics. I think Rick Davis

said no, he was retired from politics. But in an incredible evolution from the ellipse on January six, to see him on Facebook last night standing and would appear to be a cafeteria delivering a concession speech and can we call it a concession speech. Well, I guess he did concede, but he was not happy about it. We are sending to Washington, DC, assuming that there's a victory from my opponent in the general action. We are sitting to Washington, d C. He's that opposite. And while we in the

United States Senate. But the voters have spoken. They might not have spoken wisely. They may have been they may have been seduced by brazingly false advertising, but nonetheless they have spoken, and I respect their will. So they may not have chosen wisely, Rick Davis, but I respect their will. We're reassembling the panel. Rick is here, and Genie Chanzano. You've been around Moe Brooks. You worked in Alabama politics. Uh, you heard Greg ros say he was not a very

good statewide candidate. But it's it's in many ways the story of betrayal. Well. Yeah, first of all, most people in Alabama think anybody north the Huntsville is a Yankee, so that is probably fundamentally his problem down state. Um, but but yeah, I'm uh, you know, he was. He was.

He was an incredible story about being on the back of the ellipse with the President United States and and and and a confidante of a very world's most powerful man to the point where you know, he's he's he's basically telling in his concession speech the voters that they didn't know what they were doing there. It's never a very good way to say goodbye. Uh and Uh. But but his career is over right, I mean by the time Trump dumped him and then he gets beat two

to one. Uh, not even a close race. Uh, it's it's it's pretty much curtains for him. And I think he'll be He'll be a It's kind of a metaphor for a lot of the people who are around Trump at the time of January six, who have fallen out of grace, both within the Republican Party and the legal system. He congratulated the Democratic Party, Genie uh, suggesting that the Alabama Democratic Party in fact got his rival elected, that his opposition was the chair of the Democratic Party. You

know about that. I'm still reflecting on is quote unquote concession speech last retirement, and I've got more. I love it. You know, it's stunning to me that Alabama Republicans overlooked him for Katie Britt at this point. Um, but you know, I think this does speak to where the Republican Party finds itself, and you know, Donald Trump endorsing her sort

of at the last minute. I totally agree with Greg had very little to do with with obviously with her win, you had most of the MAGA supporters, as you mentioned, supporting Brooks and he got you know, about what Donald Trump has been getting in a lot of these races, which is, you know, between about five to thirty plus or minus per cent. So I don't think he can even blame Donald Trump on this one. Here is how

Moe Brooks put it last night. Congratulate the winners, and some of these weirds might be a little bit unexpected. But if I'd not congratulate the Alabama Democratic Party, you know, it says congratulated the Democratic Party. Rick I realized it's it's tongue in cheek. He's on his way out, but it it is. It's a look. I guess the Trump concession speech might have been uh even more bitter. I guess there if if there's a measuring stick, well at

least he actually conceded. I mean, we're still waiting for the Trump concessions. Katie Britts, forty years old, could be the youngest woman in the Senate. Is this a slam dunk from here? Oh? Yeah, slam dunk. I mean, first of all, to congratulate the Democratic Party of Alabama would be actually two people, Okay, so it's not a big group. And and and yeah, Katie's a lock. I mean they're gonna send her to the Senate. Uh. She actually has

a lot of great experience. I mean, probably a quarter of the members of Congress and Senators are former staffers. So this is not unusual to be inspired by a boss like you know, Richard Shelby. Uh, and go back and fill his shoes and show up knowing everybody. And you show up knowing everybody and you know the system inside. Now, so she'll she'll be a great contribution to the Republican caucus and whether they're in the majority of the minority,

she'll she'll make herself useful to people of Alabama. What do you guys make of these races in Georgia? I mean Donald Trump just should probably stay out of Georgia. Is that kind of the message here? His both of his endorsed House candidates failed last night, and buy a lot and Jennie, as we discussed with greg Or Row that Vernon Jones Mike Collins race got really ugly and a boy that the Trump endorsement did not help. No, it didn't. You know, You've got to wonder what Donald

Trump is thinking about Georgia at this point. It has been a disaster for him, and by the way, it's a state that also may very well indict him um for trying to steal their electoral votes. So if I was Donald Trump, I'd stay out of there. But this again was another big loser for Donald Trump. But you know, I think we should be clear. You know, the Republicans, they still say they like his policies. Their problem is

with his temperament, the way he comports himself. I don't think the January six hearings have really had an impact yet. I'm not sure if they will. But it does speak to what we saw with Georgia voters in November, which is that they like Republicans they put send them to the Congress. They just don't like Donald Trump necessarily enough to put him back in the White House. We're looking for trends constantly here, Rick, and I know that sometimes

that's dangerous. It's what journalists do but when you do uh factor in North and South Carolina, as I mentioned, for Trump backed House candidates have now lost, is the shine off at this point? Well, you know, sort of. I do think Georgia is a good example of why did Trump even bother endorsing anybody, because they're all the candidates are for him. Yeah, he could have declared victory

with Mike Collins and Rich McCormick. Uh, they're both Trump type, absolutely, and Mike Collins says the election was stolen, right and we and we can go through a whole laundry list of people he didn't indorse who will say the same thing. So so I'm left scratching my head wondering, like, why in the world who's telling him he's got to get involved in these race to be relevant when what's relevant is the fact that all these people on their own are saying there for his brand of politics. What do

you think of that, Genie? This would feed the ego either way? Why why make it formal? Yeah, you know, that's always been the question. This is why former presidents never endorse our party leaders, that they don't take a role in these primaries because to Rick's point, they can just you know tag on at the end, and Donald Trump has moved this party in his direction, There's no question about that. So I think it has to do a lot with his you know, ego, as it always does.

And I don't think he takes advice from advisors or smart people like Rick about what he should be doing. And that's partly why he's in the mess he's in because there's a lot he could have done towards the end of November or the beginning of November to be in the White House again, and he just couldn't do it. If you didn't hire Rick Davis, that's your problem. What

can we say. I have to ask you both about Eric Grayden's and and what this is saying about the Republican Party and just the state of America right now is the Senate celebrates, even Mitch McConnell celebrating compromise on a gun safety bill that apparently is going to be forthcoming. They could have is done by the weekend. Well, this former governor of Missouri who is now running for US Senate puts up a new ad uh that some might think glorifies gun violence. It's just a thirty second ad.

It's already been taken down from Facebook. Eric Brighten's walking down the street. He's going past in a rural neighborhood. He's walking past a mailbox with a with a big old shotgun or don't ask me what kind of a gun this is he's holding. And he starts the rap from there, I'm Eric Brighton's navy seal and today we're going rhino hunting. Rhino coxt corruption and is marked by

the stripes of cowardice. That now he's joined by a bunch of guys and fatigues and they break down the door of a house, set off smoke bombs, joined the MAGA crew, get a rhino hunting permit. There's no bagging limit, no tagging limit, and it doesn't expire until we save our country. Wow, all right? And then they show the rhino hunting permit. Uh, it's been flagged by Twitter. They did not take it down. Facebook did. And Rick, I'm

assuming that's the whole point of this. Do you make a crazy act like that with any intention other than having it be banned so you can raise money and talk about, Yeah, there's a headline grabbing off color kind of effort to be extreme right and and extreme is what sells these days in politics. But but Graydon's you know, he's just he's he's got a litany of problem right, and he was run out of the governorship, you know,

with assault charges, he's had legal problems. Um. You know, I think the people who see this aren't actually going to be entertained by it, right, I mean he claims, now, oh, it was just sort of tongue in cheek, right. Um, you know, let's see how tongue and cheek the voters are when he's giving an opportunity, perfectly good Senate seat, giving an opportunity that Democrats to win, and in this case, Democrats probably will win it because he continues to do

these kinds of demagoguery. Uh. And an Atlantish sinks he's going to be seen as a joke. Well, King Castro, a Democrat from Texas, of course, Democrat Genie uh said this is sociopathic. You're going to get someone killed. Adam Kinzinger, Republican of course from Illinois. You're a very bad man, he said, Uh, considering the political climate, the shootings recently, Jeannie, who's he trying to target? Yeah, the timing of this,

I mean, the ad itself is outrageous. You know, listen, in American politics, people have historically, including many Democrats, used firearms in their ads, but they haven't used them to invasion, hunt down yes elected or officials or governmental officials. And this is coming just after Brett Kavanaugh. Um, this is coming just after you'valdi. This is coming after the congressional

baseball game. Maybe there there is so much wrong with this, particularly Graightens with his past as being accused of violence to put this out, Um, so you know, from all of those perspectives, you know, TV networks probably wouldn't run something like the social media outlets do, and that's the problem. We need regulation in this area. He is incidentally one of twenty one Republicans running to replace the retiring Senator Roy Blunt. Uh. Not looking too good on the odds there,

ay Rick Davis. Yeah, I think he's got a slim chance of playing it to the fastest hour in politics. If you showed up late, subscribe to the podcast. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg