Sound On: Gas Price Outlook, Title 42 Fate

but they're not going to get it. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. The global fuel shock hits the East Coast. Welcome to the fastest hour in politics, as we join you from the Mothership World headquarters in New York, and news that gasoline supplies have fallen to an eight year low on the East Coast, diesel to the lowest since we're gonna talk about what that means for the summer driving season and what if anything Washington can do to help with Patrick Dahn, the head of

petroleum analysis at gas Buddy. He'll be here in a moment later. The Secretary of Homeland Defense grilled on Capitol Hill over the border. We'll talk about the administration's plans to replace Title forty two with Leon Fresco, specialized in immigration litigation at the Department of Justice and saw this coming. Kevin McCarthy meets with the rank and file for the

first time since the tape was leaked. We'll discuss that with the panel today Bloomberg Politics contributor Democratic analyst Genie Chantano along with Republican strategist Doug High, former calms director at the r n C. The headline says it all global fuel supply shock hits US East Coast inventories hard. And you thought gas prices were falling, well, I mean they have been. I'm paying less than four dollars in the nation's capital at least lately. There was up around

five at one point. But the inventory reports are out and they do not provide comfort. As I read on the Terminal, East Coast Distalate's diesel and heating oil have fallen to their lowest level since six and gasoline to the lowest level in eight years. In New England, specifically, gas stockpiles at their lowest level since see and see music factory was singing gonna make you sweat that would be, would you guys have gotten that. I know Paul would

have now. Of course, gas prices have been rising throughout the year, way before the war in Ukraine. Of course that made it a lot worse. Though the messaging from the White House has really been all about the war lately. We've discussed this, right, the Putin price hike. This is

President Biden using that line earlier in the week. The second big reason for inflation is gas prices, and as Vladimir Putin's gas price increase, Prutin's invasion in Ukraine has driven up gas prices and food prices all around the world. Putin price hike, the gas Putin price increase, whatever you want to call it, it echo us throughout the administration.

Of course, critics say, well, these prices have more to do with America's dependence on foreign oil, with energy policy, and of course it's been exaggerated by the war and by a lot. These inventory reports, they'll give us a sense of what we could be in for Memorial Day and beyond. And we bring in Patrick to Han for more on this. Been looking forward to the conversation with the head of petroleum analysis at gas Body. Patrick, Welcome back.

When you consider the inventory crunch here, the likelihood that this war continues and then the summer blends emerging. What does that mean for gas prices this driving season. Well, I mean certainly a very bumpy and volatile summer as we continue to see markets digest burying headlines that seemingly

are on opposite ends of the spectrum. UM. You know, there's a lot being said about Russia and Ukraine and now Russia today escalating the situation by UH stifling the flow of natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria, and of course we have a global economy that's been rebounding UM. In addition, China on the other side of the spectrum with COVID, which could push oil prices lower because of the responsive demand there is is Chinese authorities lockdown areas of China, so there's a lot for the market to

digest UM coming out of COVID. UM. You know, demand went from UH from zero hundred miles an hour very quickly, it seems like UM and as you mentioned their leadoff, the segment inventories are extremely tight. Why is the East Coast such a problem. Well, we've lost nearly half a million barrels a day in refining capacity um become by chance.

Refinery in Canada on the Maritimes was shut down just prior or, I should say, in the midst of covid um and the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refiner in Philadelphia, which had a capacity of over three hundred and thirty three thousand barols a day was uh suffered a fire back in nineteen if memory serves so, we we've lost about half a million barrels of refining capacity in that in that region, and so things have gotten ex extremely tight. So we've got a refining crunch here on the East Coast.

I won't say locally, I guess regionally. We could say it's even worse in New England from what I am reading here in the reporting from Bloomberg News at the supply crunch with the war, and we've got some serious issues here, Patrick, I guess the the one. It's interesting how this works, right, the demand from China for years was pushing prices higher. If they locked down even further because of covid in China, is that the one hope we have. As awful as that sounds, boy, it does

sound awful. I mean that that certainly would offer arrest. That to global demand is if if China continues to you know, have portions of major cities Shanghai, Beijing lockdown, that would limit their insumption. And right now we're we're virtually helpless on supply between sanctions on Russia and Russia's war in Ukraine and Americans are that are getting out and about. Um, there's really no way to curb supply.

Americans are are doing so slightly with higher prices, but then politicians offer lower prices through lower gas taxes and soften that blow. So I think it's gonna be harder to adjust the demand side of the equation. Um, it's just as hard to adjust the supply side of the equation, given the fact that, as you mentioned, you know, we we've recovered very quickly from COVID and supply his leg behind.

How Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the majority leader of the Senate, Chuck Schumer, had a meeting yesterday reportedly to talk about assembling a package to get gas prices under control. Uh, They've been in touch with the White House on this. Apparently Chief of Staff Ron Clan, according to punch Bowl, was part of the conversation. The idea here is to get as much. You know, different approaches cobbled into one that as we can. There's been talking about a gas

tax holiday, even payments is of vouchers to people. Patrick, would any of this stuff make a difference this summer. I think it's a slippery slope. Obviously, politicians you know, have been looking for a relief. We've seen it come at the state level. Georgia, Connecticut, Maryland all doing gas tax holidays. The incredible risk is that that compounds the problem by potentially incentivizing Americans two not make behavioral changes, driving changes. I mean, part of the reason we're curious

because consumption has gone up. It's outpaced demand. Excuse me, it's outpaced supply. And to make the problem worse, you're going to reduce prices um especially if it's in the midst of summer. Americans have much more ability to go out and enjoy the summer months. I mean, if you offer a gas tax holiday in winter, I wouldn't be as worried as Americans going out and saying, hey, let's just take a spun SIUs road trip. But in the summer, the ingredients are there for them to actually do that.

So the risk is politicians lower prices and that's going to increase the man. Genna McCarthy was talking about this today with a conference with Bloomberg Green. They assembled a bunch of folks to talk about climate and Gina McCarthy, of course the White House climates are is making the point that you know, we're not having the right conversation, and what you said reminded me of that. Patrick. If we're obsessed with increasing production here and lowering prices, we're

never going to get off the stuff. And she says we need to be transitioning to renewable energy. Of course that's her role in the administration to promote that. Here's what Gina McCarthy said today. His belief is, and he stated it every single time that he's talked about oil and gas prices, is that our only way to have independence, our only way to have security against challenges that dictators like putin present is to actually grab that clean energy future.

That is the only way we're going to make this work. She spoke with Bloomberg's Francie and Lackwell h The timeline here at Patrick is is really challenging. You know, at what point does this finally break and we turn away from incentivizing companies or or begging companies to drill more and start investing in renewable well. I think the challenge is one that you know, the administration seems laser focused on moving us away from from fossil fuels. And that's fine.

The problem is that now you're you're I mean, this is economics that it's fine. It's supplying demand shifts from fossil fuels. Two ingredients that going to e VS. Lithium prices have skyrocketed, Nickel, other precious metals are skyrocketing in price um. And I mean, I won't even go in the background of how those minerals are our mind from the earth right. A lot of that is is what you don't see you see driving around an e V that you can charge and recharge without fossil fuels. But

I think everything has pros and cons. I think the problem with moving towards renewables is we're gonna have to have a whole lot of renewables um, you know, wind, solar, nuclear, We're all gonna have it. We need it now right because we need to make this transition sooner rather than later. But that compounds a problem by driving prices up. And look at Tesla. I mean they've already made price increases on evs several times this year for this exact reason.

What's the national average right now? Patrick, We are staring in a national average in the US now for unloaded gasoline at about four thirteen. Again we see five this summer. You know, it's unlikely, it's I'll say it this way, it's improbable, but it's still could happen, right, It's improbable, not impossible. But you know, given all of the uncertainty, I mean, COVID is still you know, uh, making its

way across countries, apparently in China the most. And on the other side we also have the rush of Ukraine thatch wation, which I mean escalations. There's so so much uncertainty. Like you said, the ingredients are there to see these things happened. Patrick to Hant, thank you come back and see us again. I always enjoy it. The head of petroleum analysis at gas Buddy, where you can actually find

the local average in your neighborhood. I am wondering about New England though, like I said, gas doc piles at their lowest level since when this was the number one song in America. Are we really having this conversation right now? It's true. So if you're going up to Martha's Vineyard to Boston, de Maine, it's something to keep in mind when you refuel into our friends at our Boston station. We see you. We'll assemble the panel next. This is Bloomberg.

You're listening to Bloomberg you sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio, joining you from Bloomberg World headquarters in New York today with an eye on oil and gas prices following the inventory shock we were just talking about with Patrick Dahan. President Biden calls it the plutin price ike, but we'll vote voters by that the rest of the year because they were paying a lot before the war started.

Let's assemble the panel right now. Jeanie Schanzano is with us, of course, Bloomberg Politics contributor and Democratic analyst, and joined today by Doug Hies with US Republican strategist, former deputy chief of staff to Eric Canter, former communications director for the r n C. It's great to have you both

with us here. Jeannie, Uh, this is big, big trouble if our conversation with Patrick Dahn pans out talking about the possibility of five dollars a gallon in the summer driving season, just as people are paying attention to primaries and noticing signs on the lawns and thinking about local races and who they want to vote for. Despite every effort this administration has made, uh, these these inventories do not project a good picture. What can Joe Biden do?

It's really tough for the Biden administration. As you mentioned, they have tried to make the case that this is a Putin price hike that has fallen flat, you know, in large part because Vladimir Putin is not on the ballot, nor will he be in November. So people don't have an option of blaming Vladimir Putin when they go to vote. They have the option of blaming Democrats, and that's likely

what they'll do. So, you know, as we just look at what Russia did with Poland and and Bulgaria the other day, imagine if they do that with Germany and

potentially Italy with Nordstream, things could get worse. I do think there's things that they could try to do, maybe a skinny sort of energy package, something that somebody like Joe Mansion could get Republicans Democrats on board with But you know, as we keep talking about, unless something like that probably happens before Memorial Day, it's likely not going to happen. And Democrats are probably going to keep pushing

this message to blame Putin, but it's not a winning message. Well, it's also not going to bring prices down a lot in the near term, is it. I mean, you can put together other and we need an energy policy. You put together an energy bill, great, but this is long term. I mean, affecting prices the next couple of months genies

is close to impossible. It's close to impossible. And of course, again presidents always get blamed for the good and the bad, and in this case the bad and the president isn't on the ballot, but Democrats are, and they'll get blamed in turn. Doug, I'm glad you're here. Uh. I notice your former colleagues at the r n C are well aware of this and have been tweeting video of President Biden talking about the Putin price hike. Does he need

to stop saying that now? Yeah? I think so. The reality and this is one of the things the r n C has has been highlighting is that inflation has gone up every month that Joe Biden has been president. So you know, if we're talking about putin price hikes that started and say, you know February, well in January, December, November,

we were talking about gas prices. We were talking about what people were paying at grocery stores, what they're paying at restaurants, what they're playing for their rental car, used car, new car. Uber president was holding inflation events months and months ago, months before the wars started. It's exactly and what we saw was before this invasion happened, when there might be a slight dip in gas prices. Democrats wanted to harold that, you know, gas prices were down ten

cents in two weeks. Well, okay, but a lot of money had already been taken out of the pocketbook of of you know, Americans throughout the country and more expensive on everything they paid. And that happened well before this. So what do you do from the Republican view here, sit on your hands, Doug Way too, hopefully take the majority, or or could there be a bipartisan effort to manage this. I mentioned the meeting with Pelosi and Schumer. I realized

that was not a meeting with McConnell and McCarthy. But we're talking about doing something right, a gas tax holiday. Maybe it's vouchers, Maybe there's something in the production and that can be done to to incentivize drillers. What's your thought. Yeah, yeah, Look, you know we're seeing a lot of activity from governors already who are providing local as tax holidays for you know, sixty days or ninety days. Glenn Young can just signed one in this week for ninety days, and uh, that's

something where Republicans could get behind. Obviously, you know they are they are pro production, pro exploration. They'll be happy to talk about even though it doesn't solve the current prices, the crisis, the Keystone pipeline and things like that. But let's be realistic. We're talking about trying to get something done in the next four weeks on energy that doesn't happen very quickly in Washington, d C. In any circumstances. Well, no,

it's it's highly unlikely. As we're talking about new money for Ukraine, Title forty two and COVID Genie on your menu of options here, what are you doing as the Biden administration to make the priority out of those. You know, they have to prioritize Ukraine, and they have to prioritize any steps they can take to address inflation. Those are the two things, and that would include, of course the

price of gas. Those are you know, Ukraine shouldn't be as much of an uphill battle these of the Congress, but certain dealing with inflation, their options are really limited, as are the gas prices. So those are the two things they have to prioritize. But the real answer is they have to prioritize what can get passed through Congress. And that means when Elizabeth Warren goes out on the Sunday talk shows and talks about, you know, going big or going home, it's simply not going to happen. It's

got to be what can be done. And I go back to some kind of skinny package that they can get bipartisan agreement on, like they did bipartisan infrastructure and plow it through. Although I agree with Doug it's terribly difficult to imagine four weeks doing something like that. Well, I don't know, Doug, You tell me if from the from the Republican View on Capitol Hill. Don't you say, go ahead, make my day. I dare you to spend

more money? Well, I mean certainly they'd be happy to see Democrats try and go big because there's a uh. What we see is is Republicans would be very enthusiastic to show up in November to block Democratic plans. So the bigger they go, the bigger Republicans could go to the polls in November. I thought you might say that black Doug High is with us along with Genie today. They'll be back a bit later. As our panel for the Wednesday edition, we turned to immigration next. This is Bloomberg.

Thank you for being here, and welcome to the fastest hour in politics. I'm Joe Matthew at World Headquarters in New York. Reading this story about the Secretary of ma Orcus testimony today is quite a read on the terminal. Bloomberg Government says. Ma Orcus at the center of a political and legal firestorm over the administration's plans to end pandemic related restrictions at the border. We've talked about this

last two days, Title forty two. During a Householmeland Security Committee hearing later Wednesday, Republican members called him a liar, a disappointment and a failure and urged him to resign. So how was your day to day, Mayorcus? Of course, so re bounding or trying to from this title forty two situation. Remember we have the judge way in the other day. It actually happened during the broadcast and now

you can't take that down. This is the COVID policy that we were using in place of going back to the Trump administration to keep immigrants from crossing the border. Now the idea is here. What what were you guys doing? Were you planning something to replace it? It was supposed to go away at the end of May, and they say, yes,

we started working on this back in September. We talked about it yesterday, a six point plan surging resources to the border, medical supplies, working with NGOs, greater efforts to crack down on human smuggling. Secretary of man Orcus described it to day before the panel. We started our planning last September and we are leading the execution of a whole of government strategy which stands on six pillars to prepare for and manage the rise in non citizen encounters.

We bring the six pillars to Leon Fresco, now partner at Holland and Night, former Deputy Assistant at Orney General for the Office of Immigration Litigation at the Department of Justice is Civil Division. Leon, thank you for being here. I'm assuming that we're going to have quite a number of turns here in the legal Department as we now wait for a Judge uh to to make the final ruling that we've essentially been warned about. It's going to

keep Title forty two in place. You get a sense that this administration is prepared for it to go away whenever that happens. Well, the thing is, at this point it's going to go away. It's just a matter of time. Because there's not going to be a permanent COVID Title forty two policy. The Supreme Court at some point is going to have to credit the fact that the pandemic is over and so there's not a pandemic related reason to restrict entry into the United States. So then the

question becomes what takes its place. And this is the difficult situation in terms of facts versus rhetoric versus UH law. And here the problem is that what Title forty two does is it gives the aministration the ability to blanket ban people from coming in, and when you eliminate that, you have to go through a process that, even though it's called expedited removal, still allows people to enter the United States and if they can articulate a credible asylum claim,

make that claim from the United States. And so the problem is unless you can come up with some alternative that doesn't allow people to enter, the complaints of people who don't want people to enter are never going to be mollified. We'll talk to me about the plan the administration has. Does this look well thought out? Is it something they should have been working on long before September?

Will make it difference? Leend. So, the problem with the plan that the administration has is that the plan that the administration has is a very well thought out plan to try to expedite the processing of people who enter

the United States to seek asylum. And so what that means is they're trying to avoid the situation where you see pictures of kids lying in detention facilities in squalid cells with with my large blankets and trying to figure out how you process these these people because there's backlogs in the process. Say, so, that's what their plan is aimed to address is how we get people through this system as quickly as possible, so we don't have these

scenes at the mortar that are these terrible humanitarians. It doesn't increase capacity enough to actually absorb all of these people, doesn't leon. Well, that's the problem is one, we have no idea how many people are gonna come. But number two, it doesn't address what you do to prevent people from entering the United States unless and until they actually win their asylum claim. Which is the criticism that the Republicans have,

which is they don't want anybody entering period. But the problem with their criticism is that Title forty two is a public health based reason to exclude. So what the Biden indinistration is saying is if there's not actually a public health based reason to exclude, we have to transition to the imperfect prior law and then try as best as we can to meet our responsibilities under that prior law. And that time comes leon is it family detention or

do we see kids separated again? How will the administration handle that to avoid the photos you're describing. Well, so that's the issue is that the administration is already saying they're not gonna put families or unaccompanied kids in extradited removal, which means they won't be detained. The only thing that they're gonna have is a maybe one or two or maybe three day window in a CDP facility where their process to make sure nobody there is a drug dealer

or a terrorist or anything. But then they're going to be released until their court date. And this is the scenario that the Republicans wanted to avoid, is they didn't want anybody being released, but that would require a statutory change or to just keep Title forty two forever, which is of course also legal because there isn't a permanent pandemic. God, is this all gonna end up in court again, Leon

before there's a final determination. Yes, on both sides, they're gonna sue the people who want Title forty two eliminated faster and the people who want Title forty two kept forever. And really, in the end, I think the Supreme Court is gonna say, look, Title forty two is a CDC decision. The CDC has lots of discretion in how they do this.

And so because they have lots of discretion and how do they do this, we the courts are not gonna supplans our judicial decisions for CDC Title forty two recommendations. I'm really glad you got in here. Leon just cooked this down in five minutes to make more sense than just about anybody I've heard yet. That's I guess Why is it Holland and Knight while he was staff director for the Senate d this Yeary's Subcommittee on Immigration. Thank you, Leon,

we'll reassemble the panel next. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg. You sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio, the fastest hour in politics. Thanks for being with us as we join you from the mother Ship today. It's nice to be in New York. I even saw my first Mr Softie truck as I emerged from the train station. I said, yes, that beings summer is near. You know first it's the cherry blossoms in d C. We don't get the Mr Softy. Remember having a fantasy as a

kid someday buying a Mr Softie truck. That would be my career and I'm still aiming for it. As we reassemble the panel. Here, Jeanie Shechanzano is with us Democratic analyst and of course Bloomberg Politics contributor, and joined the day by Doug High with us for the hour, Republican strategist, former deputy chief of staff to Eric Cantor, and former director of Communications at the r n C. So what recording? That's nothing? What do I see here? Nobody is concerned

about this the line to Bloomberg from a Republican member. Today, Kevin McCarthy had his first face to face with the rank and file since the recording surfaced of him criticizing some colleagues considering telling Donald Trump to resign and even more where that came from. There is more tape, you know. I guess this is going to trickle out every day. Here is something CNN got it from the New York Times.

This again is the Alex Burns and Jamarn's story. They've put a book together and God, this thing doesn't even come out for like another month, um, a couple of weeks at least. It's already number one. So let's get to the tape here. I want to hear from Doug on this. We'll get to the latest recording from Kevin McCarthy as he's talking with Steve Scalise. Right, this is a member a leadership call talking about the membership and

naming names, including Matt Gates. They're not happy with, you know, post January six, some of the rhetoric that was coming out on Twitter, and McCarthy has had it. We even had to bleep the tapes so we could play it for you here on Bloomberg Radio. Here he is what was specifically. I just saw that on Twitter and someone um involved just sent it to me. So I'm calling Gage. I'm explaining to him. I don't know how I'm gonna say, but I'm gonna have some other people call him too.

But the nature of what if I'm getting griefing, I'm gonna get another one from the FBI tomorrow. Uh, this is serious. To cut this out. Yeah, that's that's that's that's that's it. I mean, it's potentially illegal. What are he's doing? Well, he's putting people in jeopardy and he doesn't need to be doing this. We saw what people would do in the Capitol. Um, you know, at least eople came prepared rope with everything else. Very concerned. Kevin McCarthy,

The New York Times reporting this is January tenth. By the way, this call urging other party leaders to monitor the public statements of certain lawmakers, including Yes, Matt Gates of Florida also Moe Brooks of Alabama. Gates actually replied, he seems to be the one guy who's kind of upset about all this. He were applied on Twitter after hearing the tape, called McCarthy and Scalise the number two House g OP leader weak men, not leaders, and apparently

demanded an apology in the caucus luncheon today. Matt Gates, everyone else though, pretty good with it, pretty good with it. As our friend Emily Wilkins rights Bloomberg government. House Republicans rallied around Kevin McCarthy in their first in person meeting get a little bit of taste of this. As a matter of fact, Representative Salazar, Republican from Florida, Maria Salaz are emerging from the lunch. You're talking with a reporter out on the street about her take on the tape.

Here she is, So, did you listen to the McCarthy audio that was released? Sure? I did, And what was your response? As an American? My response to what that that you was edited? You see, I know the art of editing, So I don't I'm not sure. I'm not sure in what context. But what I'm saying to you is that is not a matter of trying to find out that happened. What he said is the whole story. Don't you guys see it? What you guys are doing.

You know, it's like the history will judge the news organizations a hundred years from now and we'll say we're not doing our job well. At least that won't be here hundred years from now. And you know, I'll talk to you about the art of editing. It is an art when it's done right, Doug High, pull me in off the ledge. Here. Is this what you expected that Kevin McCarthy walks back into that Republican Caucus meeting and gets a standing ovation, Doug, that's what happened today. Is

this already over? You know, perhaps not a standing ovation I would have predicted, but that this wouldn't be a massive deal within the conference itself is not surprising at all. And I'd say a couple of reasons for that. One, Republicans want to be focused on the mid terms and talking about those issues that are most resonating with voters.

On mid terms, inflation, as we were talking about earlier, rising crime, for instance, anything that is a distraction from that, they don't want to talk about, and they'll find whatever way they will talk about one hundred years from today because they don't want to talk about that is one reason.

The other is, let's face it, what members have kind of come up when when in these conversations, it's been members like Matt Gates and Marjorie Taylor Green that has terror firm or for House Republican leadership to be critical of. It's not like he was making these comments about a Patrick mckenry or Gus Bill Irakus or somebody like that. It's a very different conversation. He was making comments about Donald Trump the other day, though apparently Trump was fine

with it, at least he is for now. Doug, were you offended by anything that you heard? No, I agreed with everything that he said. You know, I would like to see more consistency there, obviously, But this is the political reality of where Republicans not only find themselves but have put themselves. You know, as we know, whether it's an endorsement or anything else, Republicans feel the need to

be beholden to Trump. And certainly, if you want to be the next Speaker of the House, assuming Republicans take it over, having Donald Trump on your side instead of against you is the fact this way to get there. Of course, there was really I don't think there was any editing in that tape, Genie. I mean maybe they had to take a portion of it, obviously, but nothing was cut up there, and he didn't deny any of those comments. So I thought the Salazar take was interesting.

But my gosh, this is Capitol Hill. There's no there's no young guns out there who want to take out Kevin McCarthy and run for speaker, Genie. And and that's a great point. No, who would want to be speaker at this point? You know, there is nobody in waiting for this job really at this point. And yeah, it is. And you know, Salazar's comments echoed what Marjorie Tyler Greene said. She's talking about the media are trying to divide us, so they have put this in the context of this,

you know, Trumpian fake news media. Let's face it, McCarthy has raised more money I think now that any other GOP leader for his members for reelection. He is the only one who is in the offing to be speaker. He will probably be elected speaker if they take the House. My question is is he going to be a weekend speaker? And I would also say that you know what they

need to be concerned about. They need to be concerned about if people in the conservative media turn on him and turn on him like Tucker Carlson, who has described him as liberal and at least dephonic, that's when members will get pushed back from Republican constituents, and then you may see pushback. Otherwise he's going to skate into that

position and have a tough time getting anything done. Is that crack in the party a problem for Kevin McCarthy, Doug to Genie's point, you saw Tucker Crossing coming out for blood. If you go on Twitter, if you look at conservatives, not just Republicans, but conservatives who are supporting Donald Trump, they're pretty angry at some of the stuff.

Kevin McCarthy said, Sure, But ultimately, if Donald Trump is behind him, what conservative columnist or commentator or really member of Congress outside of the four or five usual suspect loudmouths really going to go against Kevin in that vote, they're not going to. He'll win the vote within the conference. He'll be you know again if if it's a big majority and and Trump backs him, he'll win that vote easily in the conference. And then we'll take it to

the floor. Well, he'll lose some votes, no doubt about it, but ultimately should emerge victorious. And Trump he hasn't said pept this meeting he supposedly had with McCarthy. Donald Trump never has to weigh in on anything, but he always weighs in on things. So we'll often just see what he says. Doug. We haven't had a chance to talk to you in a bit, certainly since the Elon Musk story with Twitter. Does does Donald Trump go back on Twitter? That would be one way to start getting real loud.

He says he's not going to, but no one believes him. Well, clearly he knows that that would be the best place for him, the most effective place for him. His visibility has dropped precipitously since he was kicked off Twitter. The challenge that we just don't know about is is there anything with his media platform truth truth social that would either delay or prevent him from doing so? And if he has fiduciary or contractual obligations there that may hold

things back. You're on truth social genie, what do you think, how's that working out for you? I'm very active, Joe, very active on truth threshold. No I'm not. But you know, either that's the iron he's done. He's he's truth only once. That's right. I didn't even set it up, and I'm doing just about as much as he is. But you know, that would be a gift to Democrats. They are praying

that Elon Musk is able to convince Donald Trump. Has Doug mentioned if he doesn't have an obligation to stay on truth, you know, exclusively, they are praying for him to get back on. The more he is out there, the better for Democrats. That's how they feel in a very tough year. They'd like more of him, not less. The Air Force One story was pretty remarkable today speaking

of Donald Trump. Uh, Doug. They they're losing, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars because of this Air Force one contract that was part of his stump speech, and he would brag about how he got them, you know, to this ridiculously low number at Boeing. Uh that now the New Boeing CEO says should never have happened. These kind of stories don't resonate for Donald Trump though, the way they might for for saying, Joe Biden, imagine if

overran the Air Force one contract by seven hundred million dollars. Look, you know, but part of this is to be, you know, somewhat skeptical or even cynical about it. This is what has been built in for Donald Trump and has been a real teflon shield for him. We expect Donald Trump to make shady deals, and what do you know, he made a shady deal. That's a heck of a way to get reelected. Can you can you put that on a bumper sticker, Gennie, You know Donald Trump probably could.

He did say he could kill people. What was it on? So you know he could put that on there as well. Take it to the printer. Great conversation, Doug, Thanks for being here. Don't be a Doug High. Always a pleasure, of course to spend time with our friend Genie Chanzano, a member of the family, and I feel so close to Genie being in New York right now. We'll do it again tomorrow. On the fastest hour in politics, I've Joe Matthew, this is Bloomberg