Sound On: Fed Rate Hike, Trump’s Enduring GOP Grip

economic freedom for them. Trump said, we we win it so much, we get tired of winning. Well, I'm tired of our party loses. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. The Fed brings the biggest interest rate hike in twenty two years, as President Biden reveals a smaller deficit, and the Trump brand remains a force on the campaign trail. Welcome to the Fastest Hour in politics

with the latest on the War on Inflation. Will be joined in a moment by Congressman French Hill, Republican from Arkansas, member of the House Financial Services Committee, and later with Heather Boucher will discuss the same from the White House Council of Economic Advisors. Getting the view from the Democratic point of view the administration and Republicans on the Hill. J. D Vance wins the Republicans Senate primary in Ohio. How

about it a convincing when thanks to Donald Trump? Will discuss it with Bloomberg's Mark Niquette end with our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Schanzano and Rick Davis with us for the hour. J Powell, what asked about a possible seventy five bases point move not gonna happen, Get

used to fifty for the next couple of meetings. This after the President spoke a little bit earlier in the day about inflation kind of it's really deficit reduction, but he was talking about calling again for Congress to raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy to drive down the deficit, and speaking in fact about new numbers greater deficit reduction than for expected announced by the Treasury. I reduced the federal deficit. All the talk about the deficit from our

Republican brands, I love it. I've reduced it three hundred and fifty billion dollars in my first year in office, and we're on track to reduce it by the end of September by another one trillion, five hundred billion dollars, the largest drop ever. I don't want to hear Republicans talk about deficites and their ultrama agenda. I want to hear about fairness. I want to hear about decency. I

want to better help on ordinary people. This is where we begin with Congressman French Hill, Republican from Arkansas, member of the House Financial Services Committee, and a former banker himself, one of the FED whisperers we rely on here at Bloomberg Radio. Congressman, welcome back. When you put all of this together, the FED getting on board with the interest rate hikes that I know you wanted to see start earlier, a president who's trumping the idea. Dare I say the

word trumping? The idea of deficit reduction not a very sexy topic in the nation's capital. Can should Americans feel like we're getting back on track here? Boy? I don't know Joe. I think if he if Joe Biden wanted to really help working Americans, he wouldn't have dumped another two trillion dollars of borrowed unfocused, prioritized spending on top of the four and a half trillion dollars that we've

spend every year. And that's what he did last year, and he was just held back from doing another five trillion by unhappiness by Joe Manchin. So so you do believe that the COVID relief spending helped to prompt this inflation that it was it was overboard? I do? I do? I do, because when you combine that kind of fiscal stimulus concentrated in with the fipartisan COVID release money plus what he added in, you combine that with zero interest rates in a hundred twenty billion dollars upon by monthly

by the Fed, you don't have. You can't invent a more stimulative demand focused And this is why Larry Summers and others economists were warning warning the Biden administrations they were playing with fire when you mix that kind of fiscal policy and we maintain that aggressive posture by the debt. So here we are. Congressman, did did you want the Fed to go further today or you like this fifty basis point decision? Well? I think I think their decisions too.

I would have gone sooner and we you not talked about that. I won't pick up our time today. I understand would have started sooner and TETHERD sooner. But fifty uh is good and I think getting the balance sheet down. But they're going into have a very difficult period because they waited so long, and I wish them the best and I hope that it works out for the whole country that we have sold. Yeah. Well, do you hear

Janet yelling yesterday talking about this a soft landing? She says, uh, we'll involve some luck on the car of the FED. I believe she said a combination. What was the quote? The fedulity to be skillful and also lucky. We know, Congressman, it hasn't happened that many times in history. No, and uh, we're in an unprecedented situation, if I call it, as

Arthur Burns to the anguish of central banking. When you wait too long and the horses out of the corral, you really have a hard time getting inflation back under control. That's why it's so challenge. So why take seventy five basis points off the table, as j Palill seemed to do today? Well, I think J. Pale believes that an important feature of the FED is projecting what they're going to do and stick with it and seeing how the

results calibrate. And he is, I think assessing, is there any portion of this eleven percent producer price UH annualized price increases that we're seeing and robust cpis that could in fact be transitory. So I think he's doing this as a way to why to market reaction very carefully as he shrinks the balance sheet and raises rates at the same time. Market loved it. I know the banker and you is watching the housing market, your ranking member of the Housing Subcommittee, and so I have to ask

you about this part of the economy. Mortgage rates are rising UH inventories that are still historically low, and nowhere in some markets. Is housing inflation not fixable through rate heights? Congressmen, uh No. And it's also understated, as you know in the c p I and I've been calling for that's going to be a driver in the CPI is staying elevated all of twenty one, and you've hitted. The March

numbers are just out home price appreciation. I think March year over year or sixteen point six per over twenty one, and that's up from twelve a year ago. So housing and that's also it's equally robust and rental, and so I see housing prices staying elevated. On top of the fact that we have rising rates and low inventory. It's

a perfect storm for high house prices being sustained. And we have this thing we haven't seen before, Joe, which is people's reassessing where their houses and how much house to have because of the pandemic and this work from home move. So that's a little bit of a curb in here in that demand curve. It's going to be interesting to watch. Well, you know, the story around here and in a lot of areas. This is not a Washington,

d c. Story. It was the same, uh, going back over the last several months in markets up and down the East and West coasts in the heartland, where people are putting down cash offers, no contingencies, don't even need to see the house, don't even need to look at the house, because it's that competitive. Gallop released a poll today showing only thirty of adults I think this is a good time to buy a home, which is the lowest stance the late seventies Congressman. When does that materialize

in the market. I know historically you get a big sort of gas of buying when rates start going up, and then you start to potentially see weakness. Is that

your expectation, It is my expectation. But I think that assessment of people moving because they have more job flexibility, and the fact that we have two trillion dollars in the economy that's excess reserves out their households have over two trillion dollars of extra money from pandemic, from savings from not taking trips during the pandemic, So that is fueling down payment demand. Plus people moving from high cost areas to low cost areas, people moving from California to Arkansas,

people moving from Connecticut to Florida. That plays into more buying power, even in the headwinds of price increase and a higher mortgage. I'll tell you, could you imagine being a banker again right now? How do you manage a market like this? Well, I've been I started my career in ninety nine and was a bond trader, So I've done it in every cycle, and people will be out there and they will make money. I had my first mortgage was in Dallas and it was in the sevens.

I what was the rate, Yeah, it was in the sevens in the early the early eighties. And so look, people get married, they have to have a house. People cope with this, but that's how you we That's why I'm worried that this inflation is not transitory and it's gonna be a tougher job for our monetary policy leaders. Well, you know a lot of people have two thousand seven uh in their minds here, Congressman. I don't know if you do as well. But at a certain point, are

we talking out of bubble? Is this is this gonna be risky for people buying homes right now? You know, I don't think so, because of the liquidity and because we don't have the speculation in the market. We don't have those kinds of financial instruments. You're seeing people pay over listing price for a house that they want, but they're not buying five of them. You know, we had craziness between two thousand and five and two thousand seven,

and particularly in recreational real estate areas like Florida. So I'm not seeing that kind of speculation. What I'm seeing is just good old fashioned government driven demand that's boosted prices, created inflation, and that's now being reacted to by higher interest rates, and we need to build more houses. Congressman

French Hill, Republican from Arkansas. Always a pleasure to spend some time with you and appreciate your insights today, Congressman here on Bloomberg, I want to bring in Heather Bouchet to add a different voice to this conversation, joining us from the White House, a member of President Biden's Council of Economic Advisors. Heather, thanks, and welcome back to Bloomberg Radio. Well, thank you, it's a pleasure to be here, Joe. I've got to start with inflation on this FED day, of course, Heather,

the biggest interest rate hikes since two thousands. I know you see the FED as independent, but are you happy is the economist and you're happy to see the Fed get more aggressive? Now, Well, you know, we don't comment on Fed policy. But here's the thing. It is the Fed's job to cope with inflation. That's in their mandate, and they're taking the steps that they need to take. And we all know that inflation has been high and

it's been a challenge. There's a number of things that the President has a capacity to do to deal with inflation, things like making sure the supply chains work and making sure that markets function as they should through making sure that they're competitive, and doing what he can to lower gas prices through this crisis in the Ukraine. But the Fed also has to play its role, and so that's

you know that that is what they did today. You know they're certainly at it, and I know the goal is to get inflation down, but of course there's a tough record when it comes to soft landings here. I was really struck by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's remark uh this week said the FED will need to be skillful and lucky, but it is possible. Um, do you worry

about a recession being unavoidable? This is the big question right now in Washington, as you know how the well, you know, I'm an economist and I get up almost every day worried about whether or not there's going to be an extra session. I believe I have a book that I co authored with some folks called that Um, this is an ongoing, ongoing concern. But you know, here's

the thing. The administration and Congress have done everything they can to shore up businesses and families and communities to weather this crisis of the pandemic, and you know, and to make sure that we get to this crisis caused by Putin's unprovoked war in the Ukraine. So there's a there's a lot of issues on the horizon because of those, but we have seen that the economy is resilient. We've seen that we have the tools now to better cope

with new variants of the pandemic. And we've seen that even in the faith of you know, ebbs and flows of the pandemic, the labor market has remained quite strong. And we've seen that, you know, even as there have been challenges in growth, we're seeing some strong underlying fundamentals. So, um, all of that gives me hope that we are on a stable path in terms of loose jobs and investment, and that's where the real economy is. Do you have a sense of how long the consumer can keep this up?

Just based on the savings rate, based on what we've been seeing the last couple of quarters, spending just seems to continue no matter what happens to inflation. Here, when does demand destruction begin? Well, you know, household balance sheets are in relatively good shape because families were kept hold during the crisis, and because we brought the unemployment rate down.

So you know, those seven point nine million folks that have a job now that didn't win Joe Biden took office, those folks are all out there earning a living and they're spending that money. They're doing what Americans do, so that that does create a lot of resilience throughout the economy and and for families. The President spoke today about

lowering deficits deficit reduction as a way also to fight inflation. Heather, here's what he said, bringing down the deficits, there's one way to ease inflationary pressures in an economy where a consequence of a war and gas prices and oil and food and at all. It's it's a different world right this moment, because of the Ukraine in Russia. Can you help our listeners do the math on this a little bit?

What is what is a trillion and a half dollars in deficit reduction, which I believe is what we're talking about here. Uh, these these these new estimates from the Treasury, what is that equal in inflation reduction. Is it possible to know that? Well, that is a it's a great question. Let me start by noting that the reason that we are seeing this reduction in the deficit is in large part because of the success of the President's policies, because

of the success of growth. Right saw this record pace of growth in US economy, growth faster than any points in seventeen eighties, and we saw this sharp uptick in jobs and a sharp downtick in the unemployment right down to three point six percent. So does that growth that created the tax revenue. That means that the deficit is now coming down more than it would have been otherwise.

So some of what the President's talking about with the inflation busting is that, um, you know, as folks make more money, as as businesses sell more, some of that income is going into the federal government, and it's helping us pay off the debt, which maligned you. We haven't done anything to pay off the debt since the last administration, didn't pay down a penny, and now we're going to be able to do some of that. So that's pulling

some money out of the economy. But importantly, um, it means that we aren't adding to the UH that that that that the administration is really focused on making sure that we're shoring up the economy for the long term, but not adding quick hit stimulus. Heather, you talked about your writing. You've written about how inequality constricts our economy, and I have to ask you about a major story this week that could have real economic implications, and that

is the possible overturning of Roe v. Wade. This is not something that you and I would normally be talking about, but here we are today, Heather, and we've had several economists tell Bloomberg that this this threatens to reverse decades of economic gains by women, especially lower income black and Hispanic women. How worried are you about this? What would it actually mean for our economy of the court rules in this way. Well, as an economist, I'm extremely worried.

One of the things that we saw over the course of the pandemic was that women, especially caregivers, had a tough time. You know, is even if they had the opportunity to telecommute, they had children. You know, if you had children at home, those children needed to be cared for. Childcare centers shut down, school shut down, We saw how hard that was and that people couldn't get to work.

If you don't have care, you can't get to work. UM. Denying women the right to choose UM and to have reproductive freedom means that you are denying them the ability to decide how they're going to spend their time and whether or not they'll be able to participate fully in

the labor market. There's actually a lot of economic research out there now that shows that reproductive rights do give women that economic opportunity UM and indeed, being forced to carry a child UH can can lead to economic harms because of the losses from jobs and and the like. It can it can lead to you know, it's it's as important as other kinds of dead or bankruptcy in in UH limiting women's economic security. And so this is really about people being able to have choices in their lives.

They start a conversation, I'm sorry to interrupt, hewther, a new conversation about how to support women if this in fact becomes the Supreme Court's rule. Well, it's a it's a it's a it's a conversation that has been ongoing. Right. There are now eleven states in the country that provide paid family medical leave. There has been a national dialogue about whether or not families need a child tax credit, whether or not families need access to increased support for

childcare and precate. The President has been on the forefront pushing forward with an agenda around care to support families and particularly to help mothers and caregivers cope with um you know, the daily everything of dealing with getting to your job and caring for a family. And I think those have been the President's priority and they continue to be incredibly important, especially in the wake of the tether Bouche, I appreciate your time today, thanks for being with us

on Bloomberg. Thank you. Nowhere else you are going to hear two conversations like that together, never mind followed by this panel as we bring in Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Schanzano and Rick Davis. Genie, I'm not sure where to

begin here. On the inflation front. The White House is deferring to the Fed as always, don't want to comment on what the Fete is doing, but we've got fifty basis points today and it just so happens the President went out with a speech of his own about deficit reduction. Is this the best the administration can do to win over people on the issue? You know, listening to Heather Bouche, I think she should be out making the argument that

the White House needs to make. I mean, her cogent argument about the impact, the economic impact on women is exactly what the administrative administration rather needs to say. I do think the President is smart to point to the deficit. It is incredibly important for them to point out, as he said, the hypocrisy on the other side talking about

the deficit and not pushing it down. But also it is a message to Joe Mansion, because Joe Mansion has been going out and saying it's all about inflation, it's all about the deficit, and so Biden also needs to talk to him. So I think it's a smart argument, but I'm not sure it's going to change the hearts and minds of Americans as you look at the latest polls. Don't know what he cared about the deficit, Rick Davis,

Republicans care about the deficit. Don't count herself out. Look, we haven't had a long time since Republicans cared about the deficit, and it's refreshing to see a Democratic president who just spent four trillion dollars and public works programs and and relief funding. UH to be talking about the deficit.

But look, I mean, that's why you have growth. Growth makes up for a lot of bad public policy, and in this case, the president has taken advantage of that, and so they've gone out of their way a little. Remind everybody that Donald Trump never reduced the deficit, never lose the deficit, but he did create a lot of the economic growth that UH was already in place when when Joe Biden took over. And I think, you know,

they both deserve credit. I mean, I think the Bush, the Trump tax cuts, you know, I helped fuel economic expansion in the time of COVID was really one of the worst and UH and Biden didn't do anything to get in the way of that. So it's not like you raised taxes and put more you know, breaks on

the economy. UM. So it's it's it's actually refreshing on a day when the Fed is raising interest rates to have a conversation about, you know, the federal government has actually been able to pay back some of its deficits. So so I'm getting two thumbs up here from you. This is I understand. Okay, you're setting me straight here, Genie. You know about half the speech he veered into this

Maga agenda. Portion of the address talking about what Rick Scott is proposing even sounded kind of upset at one point where he's thumping the podium and yelling about the social security I'll let you listen. Under this new plan, this tax plan, the Ultramaga agenda, while big corporations and billionaires are gonna pay nothing more, the working class folks are gonna pay help a lot more. And it goes further than that. This extreme Republican agenda calls for Congress.

This is I'm not making this up either. You gotta really think about this. It requires a vote. If it were to pass, every five years, the Congress would have to vote to reinstate or eliminate Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. SoC Security something seniors have paid him for their whole life, and it has to be reauthorized. What are we doing with this messaging here, Jeannie? Uh? It was was that?

It was that a poke? Uh, Mitch McConnell, Why are we bringing up Rick Scott's proposal when you're up there talking about your own achievements. You know, the two arguments Democrats need to make on the campaign trail, the one Heather Bouchet made about women and this one. Keep talking about Rick Scott's plan. There's a reason that Mitch McConnell said to Rick Scott shot up, essentially because that is deadly for Republicans and the President nailed it today and

talking about that. They wanted to show that they're fiscally responsible. They want to talk about the GOP tax law, and they want to talk about Rick Scott's tax plan because nothing's gonna get seniors out to vote for Democrats like the threat of Rick Scott's plan. But Mitch McConnell doesn't want Rick Scott's plan, right, Rick was this also just kind of a broadside at against Mitch here from the other side of Pennsylvania Avenue, knowing that Rick Scott would

like to be majority leader. No. I think really they've figured out what we've been talking about for some time, Joe, that they've got to nationalize this election. Uh. If the elections held on the terms that were going into this weekend, they're gonna get slaughtered. And so uh, I think Biden rightly is fixated on you know, this Ultramaga policy Trump policy. Uh, and they're gonna try to nationalize the election. And and obviously, look,

Rick Scott gave himself a Sitting Duck award. I mean, you know, he puts out this insane policy that only he endorses. Uh. But as policy director of the Caucus in the Senate, you know that's his job and his job to get people re elected. Rick and Genie with us for the hour our signature panel on sound ub Boy. We've covered a lot already and we have a lot more to go here. If you were watching last night, the president may be talking about the MAGA agenda. But

jd Vance one, this is Bloomberg. It was a very good night for jd Vance, which means it was a very good night for Donald Trump. They wanted to write a story that this campaign would be the death of Donald Trump's America First Agenda. Ladies and gentlemen, it ain't

the death of the America First Agenda. J. D Vance wins with a commanding leader, convincing turnout here what eight nine points over Josh Mandel, defeating six candidates in all thanks in large part, as we've discussed here on Sound on to his endorsement by Donald Trump, brought him out from the middle back of the pack, made the whole difference in the outcome of this race. And so Helo

sets himself up. I should say, for a race against ten term Congressman Democrat Tim Ryan, average people working their rear ends off, trying to make ends meet, fighting biting straction, pension klawn right, it's about economic freedom for them, climbing to the top. Enough money to have a vacation, enough money to pay the bills, enough money, that's a economic freedom. That's what this campaign is about. An easy win for Congressman Ryan as he was appealing the blue collar voters

in the state. We'll see who is better at that now in the general election. And we're joined again to talk about it by Bloomberg. Smart Nikka, who has been living on the campaign trail and was deep in this campaign, deep in this race in Ohio, was at several Trump rallies that brought us to this point. Mark, welcome back. I guess the Trump brand is very much still alive. Yeah.

People were watching to see whether Donald Trump's endorsement had still had the power to in this case lift a candidate like j d Vance from as you said in your intro, the middle of the pack to victory, and looks like that's exactly what happened. I mean, j d Vance ran a good campaign that put him in a position to take advantage of the Trump endorsement. Certainly, but um, I don't think there's any way to read the results other than that Trump's endorsement got him over the finish line.

Not just that, but I mean to take that take out Mandel by a convincing margin was significant, right, they were in a couple of polls, they were within points of each other. They were, and as you said, it didn't return out to be all that close, although it was a multi candidate field and people weren't sure exactly how it would turn out because in this case one um the primary, even though it was a comfortable lead over Mandel. Um. And now we're facing an interesting general

election race. We are because as you as you mentioned, um Tim Ryan from from the Youngstown areas. It's an old industrial area, um steel mills that are long since gone in a scenaria where they were formerly Democrats predominantly

who in the age of Trump became Republicans. They went and all in on Trump and his economic message, and Tim Ryan is trying to sort of adopt that approach, where his whole campaign has been about, you know, economic issues affecting working class voters to the extent that h J. D. Ryan at is an election night party last night said Ryan is running as a Trump Democrat, is how he put it. Um. So we're sort of setting up an interesting fight in Ohio between sort of the competing brands

of economic populism. Yeah. So you've got a conservative populist here running against a moderate Democrat who likes yoga. How does that play in in in the new Ohio? Well, this is what we're gonna find out, because Ohio has been, you know, forever sort of the quintessential swing state, purple battleground state. UM. But under Trump, but it feels like it's it's become more Republican. Trump won the state twice

by eight percentage points. Uh. And the feeling is, you know, the Republican has an advantage starting out in the general

election j D. Advance. But we're gonna see because Tim Ryan is gonna produce a campaign that really focuses on these economic you know, working class issues, kitchen table issues, UM and try and you know, hold democrats who who you know might be UH in the past, you know, susceptible to to going over to the Republican side, try to keep them in the Democratic column and and still win a statewide in recent Ohio find his column on

the terminal. Mark Niquette all over this. We appreciate it. Mark, thanks for being with us on sound On as we bring the panel back in on this, I do want to get insights from both Rick and Genie. Rick, You've seen Ohio change over the years. How would you describe it now? You know, back to the beginning. You know, when we were campaigning there in nineteen eighty with Ronald Reagan, we were looking for those same kind of you know, working class Steele County UH Democrats to become Republicans and

and Ronald Reagan had a lot of success. We then moved into sort of the suburban mode. And with the state of Ohio, you have you know, a dozen media markets, you know, half a dozen major cities. Suburbs matter there and Republican drank from the victory cup more often than not because they were able to mobilize suburban voters. Now we're right back to those same you know, white collar or blue collar workers in the you know collars of those cities no longer the suburbs really trying to put

together a victory. And look, I think it goes without saying. One of the things that's interesting about this election is that even though Vance won by handy margin over Mandel, vast majority of Republicans voted against him. And the question is he had enough transgressions against Trump in the past to sort of ward them off. He needs all those Republicans to be on his coalition, and I'd say the first order of business for him is going to be consolidation.

He needs those Republicans. Genie. And as we just discussed in in Uh in a prior conversation this hour, this abortion issue could in fact disrupt the way things go in the suburbs. What do you see happening in the general? You know, it could. I am not convinced yet, but I think we really don't know yet. I am not convinced that it is going to be the winning issue for Democrats. I think it can be motivating. They do

need to get women out. They knew need to take back some of these suburban Republican women that they had in eighteen and twenty, so it could be useful for that. The most important thing, though, is going to be the economy and inflation, and the most important thing is going to be that Democrats are able to show that the Republican candidates nominated are extreme, and that's what they're working to do with people like vance. Rick and j are going to come back in a moment. You know, Donald

Trump had a big night. All twenty two of his endorsed candidates in Ohio and Indiana won their races. But there's one Republican governor who looks at things very differently, and he's calling out Donald Trump setting up what could be an interesting presidential campaign. That's next. You're listening to Bloomberg. You sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. It's no coincidence that President Biden is heading for Ohio on Friday. Right now that we have a race in general election,

he can actually start getting into this. Pushed Jim Ryan promote the computer chip plant that Intel is building near Columbus. Right, you can already hear the speech. Let's reassemble the panel now with Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Chantano and Rick Davis. It was not just J. D. E. Vance who won a Republican primary last night, Rick All twenty two, as I read of the candidates endorsed by Donald Trump in Ohio and Indiana one, so as he proven the skeptics

wrong this cycle, or do you need to see more? Well? Um, certainly is a good first outing and and I think we will be seeing more. Right, there are other candidates who are gonna be running in the month of May, and we're gonna see in that effect. Obviously, his endorsement is paid off in in in Ohio, but it's not necessary. I mean, Mike the Wine, who's a pope heart governor of Ohi certainly wouldn't be our Ohio certainly wouldn't be uh called a Trump Republican. Uh probably performed better than

the rest of that kind of field. So uh there there. It isn't the only path to victory. What do you think about this, Junie? What are Democrats saying about Trump now this day after here we go again? Yeah, I mean, I think they have to recognize that he is the leading figure, the loudest voice, and certainly he his his you know, endorsements do matter. He was able to push Vance over the finish line. But let's not forget for most of those endorsements were not terribly risky. Probably the

riskiest one was Vance and he clearly got that. And I don't think we should forget the amount of money that Peter Teal put into that race. Donald Trump Jr. And Tucker Carlson we're all out way ahead of president of former president of Trump, and that money mattered. And I'm curious to see in Arizona if you know, Trump endorses Masters following Teal there as well. Well, I guess that's why I asked Rick, if you need to see more.

You know, we've got not just Arizona coming, We've got Pennsylvania, We've got Georgia, and and these could all break in different ways, That's right. Uh, it could be a mixed bag. I doubt if it's going to be what we're talking about, you know, later as a repudiation of Donald Trump. But he's gonna lose, um, some of these races, and will obviously point those out. But but as Genie says, he's

a factor, and he's going to be a factor. Um. But I would say that all these candidates sort of circling around him to get a nomination to get through the primary. It's just the one step. Uh, This politics is a Texas two step. You gotta you gotta land that general election victory. And there's a big foot to drop. One big boot that's still coming our way, and that's the January six commission, And that could be difficult for sort of Trump style politicians to want to talk about

the former president after that. Well, look, we saw what happened in Virginia, Genie, there is another recipe. They've got Glenn young Can elected. It did not involve Donald Trump. Some of the issues me a overlapped, But my god, we talked up and down about this. He never showed up himself. He never did a rally on a stage with Glenn Uncan. So what's going to be the national recipe or isn't there such thing? You know? Part of the reason I've always argued that Youcan was able to

do that. He did not have to go through this primary process that Vance and the others in Ohio have had to do, and so that is a huge difference. He his his focus was on the general. So I think the big comparison is going to be what do people like Vance do when they get once do once they get to the general and I would say I

give Tim Ryan a lot of credit. Obviously no competition to speak up really out there, but he's been to all eight counties so far as he likes to talk about, and his focus has been on the middle class, manufacturing and economics. He has an uphill battle, but his focus is exactly right China, manufacturing and those issues, because that's what the voters out there care about. Enter Larry Hogan, the governor of Maryland, of course, the Republican governor of Maryland.

Not a Trump fan. Trump is not a fan of his. Everyone knows that. But he had a big speech at the at the Reagan Presidential Library this week to deliver, with The Washington Post described as a tough love speech to his fellow Republicans, calling the Trump era the party's worst in generations, in pitching his vision of cross party appeal as the only way forward, the words of Aaron Cox, I want you to hear what he actually said, because you know he went for it. There's no pulling punches here.

And then have you both respond. Here's Governor Larry Hogan, a party that lost the popular vote in seven out of the last eight presidential elections, and that couldn't even beat Joe Biden is desperately in need of a course correction. The truth is, the last election was not rigged, It wasn't stolen. We simply didn't offer the majority of voters what they were looking for. January six was not enthusiastic tourists misbehaving. It was an outrageous attack on our democracy

incited are the losing candidates inflammatory false rhetoric. The last four years were the worst four years for the GOP since the nineteen thirties, even worse than after Watergate when Ronald Reagan had to rebuild the party from the ashes. We lost the White House, the Senate, the House, We lost governor's seats, we lost state legislative bodies. You know, Trump said, we went in so much we get tired of winning. Well, I'm tired of our party losing. WHOA Okay.

I don't know when the Trump statement comes out or he gets a nickname or whatever, but boy, he hit all of the notes in in that passage there. Rick Davis. Look, I know that he's talked about as a presidential kin tender. He's thinking about running. I guess he's waiting to see what Trump does here. But is this going to turn into, uh, you know, a divided Republican Party where you've got the sort of post Trump folks and then you've got the Maga folks on the other side, Or is Larry Hogan

going to end up being fringe this cycle? Uh? Well, the two aren't mutually exclusive, right you. You can see a division that's been opening up since you know, Donald Trump got elected president really within the Republican Party um. Uh and and and and that may or may not, you know, depending upon where uh Governor Hogan presents himself, uh, put him on the fringe. I mean, he is a pretty moderate Republican by any normal Republican standards. And yet the point I think he's trying to get at is

there's an opening here with Trump's declining popularity. Even though he's helping to win primaries, he uh, he doesn't show up as a strong national candidate right now, and most of the polls and even members of his own administration and people who work for him in the past and the elections aren't prepared to walk down that presidential road again with him. And so I think the more of that gulf is created by people like Larry Hogan showing

up at the Reagan Library and talking truth to power. Um, is I think a healthy dialogue right now for the Republican Party. Was he correcting what he said? Sure? I hate losing too. I Mean the reason I got into politics is because I like the I like the chances of winning and and and hated losing and and so you know when when when you get elected president, you're the you're the head of the party. And when you lose the Congress and you lose the Senate and then

you lose a run for the presidency. Um, yeah, yeah, I mean that's a pretty bad track record to claim you want to come back and say, hey, let's do this all over again. Genie, does that make you more nervous the idea of running against Larry Hogan or Trump in twenty four Well, first of all, I was so excited to hear Larry Hogan because to me, at me as we are in invisible primary money primary time four here we come. So as a political junky, I'm so excited.

But beyond that, Um, you know, I do think that obviously Hogan makes some really good points. I mean, Trump was you know, I just think back to that first debate with Joe Biden when Chris Wallace was sitting there with his mouth wide open. He lost this. He did this to himself. Just look at these endorsements he's been making. Many of these endorsements are simply because the person embrace stopped the steal. He is a backward looking person at

this point as a candidate. That's never a winning message. So that is positive for the Republican Party of Larry Hogan. Get this message out there, and it's a problem for Democrats. Democrats would like nothing more than Donald Trump back on Twitter, back talking as much as possible, because, as you know, James Carville said, you'd show the crazy and people, even if they don't love the Democrat or the other candidate, they're gonna go in the other direction. And so that's

what people cans. The Trump supporters Genie would say, Hey, look at this morning, j d Vance one. We pulled them out of nowhere. Trump brand is alive. It's alive in the Republican primaries. Look at the percentage of people going out. You can't win a presidential election that way. As as Donald Trump himself saw, you've got to pull independence. You've got to pull moderates, you've got to pull women from the center, and you can't do that with crazy

and you can't do it with backward looking. Well, if look, if Larry Hogan is making sense to uh to to moderate Republicans, Rick, that's a long walk from de Santis, right, Never never mind Donald Trump. Is there anyone else in the party who's getting attention on this level right now? I think that most of the people are getting attention right now really are more out of the Trump wing. And I think it's a it's a distinguishing feature because why would a bunch of Trumpers want to be looking

like they're running for president if Trump's planning on doing it? Um. I actually think that's more meaningful than Larry Hogan, who you would expect to oppose a guy like Trump. But when you have people like the Santis and others who served in Trump's administration going out there and saying, hey, I'm interested in being president. Who's Donald Trump? That is

a meaningful gesture inside a party. So the Ted Cruises, the Josh Hollies and so forth, he's there, the Tom Cotton's You're waiting to hear more from them, not really. They are actively out pursuing presidential campaigns. As Jeanie said, the season is in full bloom now. The their lining up donors. They're going to Iowa, New Hampshire there, Mike putting their list together. Mike Pence is, uh, he's out

of his bunker now. And uh, he's he's probably celebrating with his brother who did get a Trump endorsement and got nominated yesterday in Ohio. Uh and uh and and I think you know, looking for his lane. They they've all got their their strategists looking for which lane can I win a nomination from? And none of them are in the Trump lane right now. Rick Davis, Jeannie Chanzano with us on the Fastest Hour in Politics. If you showed up late, subscribe to the Sound on podcasts wherever

you find your podcasts. Meet you back here tomorrow. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg