Sound On: Dems Momentum Slips, Utah Senate Race Heats Up

the United States. Absolutely, but you pushed a big lie that said he did not win the elections. They couldn't actually say nice things about one another. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio Poll show Democrats momentum slowing. Welcome to the fastest hour in politics and not the headline Dems want to hear. With just over three weeks to the election, we'll get inside the new numbers and the money with political scientist Lincoln Mitchell, Associate research scholar

at Columbia University, will check in with Bloomberg. Government Zach Cohen, who's on the ground in Utah ahead of tonight's Senate debate, and as Herschel Walker answers to the police badge and the get Well card will get analysis on the race that could decide who controls the Senate with our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Chanzano and Rick Davis, or with us for an important hour ahead that you will

not hear anywhere else. Early voting is now underway in states like Georgia and Ohio, and with just over three weeks to election day, Democrats may have peaked according to the latest national polls. A new New York Times Siena College polls just out this morning finds of likely voters planned to vote for a Republican for Congress compared to

who say they'll vote for a Democrats. Democrats held a one point lead in that same poll in September of voters say economic concerns are the most important issues facing America. That's up from mid thirties in July. Separately, a CBS new use you Gov poll show simple if the economy is getting worse, CBS projecting Republicans take the House. President Biden over the weekend on the stump in Oregon says inflation will get worse if Republicans win. It actually comes

time to do something about inflation. Around the kitchen table, Republicans and Congress said no. If they take control, there said, their first aim is to get rid of the Inflation Reduction Act, and inflation is going to go up, not down. Your inflation is going to go up, not down. That message does not seem to be resonating, and we bring in Lincoln Mitchell, off the Top political Analysts, adjunct Associate Research Scholar at the Institute of War and Peace Studies

at Columbia University. Lincoln, welcome back to sound On. Oh, thank you for having me so always for it to be here. So it's it's not just one, but two new polls show momentum stalling for Democrats in the final weeks here of this cycle. Narrow but distinct is how the New York Times describes republic Blickins lead right now, Are they right? Yes? If the election were helps today, probably there's still you know, a couple of weeks ago. And I'm not gonna say a lot can happen, because

a lot was never gonna happen. A lot of minds are never going to be changed. But a little can happen. In elections of the twenty one century or one of Boston the margin. So I don't think this is over yet. If I were Republican strategist, I would not quite be popping the Champagne clerks. Well, it's interesting one on the margins. Here the time Ciena poll finds independent women made the biggest shift. And I had to read this a couple of times. Didn't seem right. In September they favored Democrats

by fourteen points. Now independent women, even in the wake of the Row ruling, I thought it rationalize a shift like that. The first thing I thought was, how what kind of a sample are we talking about? Right, independent women? If you have a fift person pole, you know which, I don't think the polls are that big. Necessarily you're talking about maybe two people, of course, which is not

a huge number. My sense is that in the initial wake of the Dobb's decision, the Democratic Party hit very, very hard on abortion right, and now they've pulled back a little bit. And the question for the Democratic Party is will that be smart enough to go back to that as the closing argument, because that is the argument that moves key voters. Talking about Trump and democracy, those are all based arguments, right, But if you want to take voters who are kind of republic and curious worried

about inflation. This is an issue that can bring them to the Democrats. So if they don't hit hard on it, those voters will go Republican and it won't be a good year from the Democrat. And right before the election Lincoln, there's going to be a FED meeting and likely another jumbo rate hike, and that's gonna be splashed around the front pages and the top of newscasts as people are

making their final decisions. And remember with inflation, you know, there are economic indicators like unemployment just for or the stock market, right which if you don't have stock or if your job is steady, doesn't necessarily affect you. But I can't think of a single American who's not affective. I mean, I just went to the grocery store to day and was kind of shocked and buying not much,

you know. Um, So this is very real and in my view, the Democrats have stumbled here because and this is something I would have thought Biden would be good at. He's not communicated. This is a serious problem, and I understand, and I want to do something about it instead. The first reaction of Democrats was to deny it and give Biden cover and that was a mistake. Alex fairness to Biden and the Democratic Party. Nobody has a solution for this. I mean, the Republicans are very good at, to use

a technical term, sketching, but they don't have solutions. And I think they're up front about that. But if it's going to get them elective, they're going to use them. Well, you know what Joe Biden would say. First of all, a year ago, I made that my priority. I told everyone that, I said, I feel your pain. And look, we we passed three or four pieces of legislation. They say, you're going to bring prices down Lincoln. That's right, and Biden has a legislative record to run on it, but

inflation is not part of that record. Right. He got that money out the door, He got the vaccination and people had a hundred millions vaccinations was never going to happen. He got the infrastructure built done, he got you know, the the Inflation Reduction Act, which is really a climate

change built on. He's done a lot, but you know, the front and center issue of inflation and the inner ability of the Democrats to communicate that you know, this is rough, I understand this, and there are other important things out there we have to think about. They haven't done that because they've played down inflation went to every American.

It's very obvious that inflations real CBS News of course a separate poll, but similar trend rights For two months, the Democrats chipped away at the Republicans lead in the battle for House control, and it's followed by a butt. The momentum has stalled, at least for now. How could they have held onto those numbers or was the timing

just not in democrats favor this cycle? I mean, maybe I was thinking differently back in the late summer, but I didn't really think the Democrats were ever going to hold onto the House my sense, and I still think this is possible that if you if the Democrats end up with somewhere between a hundred two, the Republicans will

obviously end up with control of the House. But that's not a red wig, given given redistricting, given the normal but you know midterm election patterns, the Republicans could you could see the Republican walking away from this election with two five just to use a round number of House seats fifty Senate set and that's not I mean, if I'm the Republican Party, I'm thinking, Wow, we didn't have Trump on the ticket, we had an unpopular president, installations

through the roof, and this is the best we can do. And and of course they're only getting those fifty sentences because they're cleaning up in these tiny states with twelve voters. The thing is, nobody's arguing about the House anymore. Right now. Now the argument is can can Democrats keep the Senate?

And more and more people are saying no, Well we'll first we'll remember that a year ago it was a something they would keep neither and then what happened is the Republicans now and I don't think we should get into this, nominated a spate of really terrible candidates. I mean Dr oz herschall Walker Blake Master who sounds more

like a golf tournament, and a politician in Arizona. But but but what you have to understand, I think is that is that the Republicans nominate those candidates because that's who they are. This is the party that if Donald Trump says jumped, you know, a plurality of primary voters say off of what and then they end up with people like herschell Walker. So this is could still in this race. I mean, you've got my gosh, look at the scandal with herschel Walker. People applauded his performance in

the debate on Friday night. He could be the next Senator from Georgia. He could still win this race. But the fact that they have to spend money and they have to worry about Georgia is not something they thought they would have to do going in. And the other point here is and I would just not the same candidate, but I'm struck by You know, you could make the argument herschel Walker is just axiomatically unqualified to be in

the center, and I think that's a given. At the same time, you can make the argument that that John Federman is axiomatically not healthy enough to being the Senate, at least for now. But one of the real striking things we're seeing over and over in this century is that American elections look more and more like parliamentary elections. All that matter is the party, right, because you know, as long as Federman has a pulse, he's gonna vote

for Chuck Schumer for leader and for everything. Biden wants every major thing Biden wants. And as long as herschel Walker, you know, can find his way around the out of the Senate clokeroom to his desk, he'll do the opposite. And that's how voters are thinking about this. This election is about Walker and Warnock and Federman and Oz, but ultimately it's about Biden Trump and that's still how voters

see it. Well, I'll tell you it's interesting. Some of the numbers crunched today by the popular information website tip Sheet whatever I should call it pretty startling, thirty five point six million dollars in corporate donations. These are not people picking up the the phone and donating five dollars thirty five and a half million dollars to election deniers, those deemed election deniers, incumbents or or otherwise challengers by the Washington Post. And this isn't just a couple of people,

as you well know. We're talking about two election denying candidates as described here. The companies on this list A T and T ups, home depot, major publicly traded companies. Boeing is in the top five. Reinforcing the comment you just made. But it tells me that people who run major companies are more concerned about lower tax right than

about democracy. That's just the bottom line. And that number of elections deniers and the number and the money, those are both low ball accounts because that doesn't include state legislative candidates. It doesn't include a situation where somebody is not exactly election denier, but not exactly willing to stand

the record that Biden is the president. So it's actually, I mean, the republic election denial is the front center issue for the Republican Party, and I think that's kind of an underreported notion because it's so frightening to people to realize this is what's become of our two party system. I've worked on elections all over the world and one thing, kind of basic thing that we've talked about in that kind of work is that if the if democracy depends

on one party winning, then it's not a democracy. And that's what we are here. An that's a tough statement, and it does reinforce this. Uh, these numbers reinforce the point that you're making there. It also reinforces the point that people want to vote for a winner. Right If the impression is that Republicans are taking the House, that's

where the corporate money is going. Well for the corporate money. Yes, they want to back a winner because they want election denying or not, it's not a right, right, I mean, you know J D. Vance in that debate with Tim

Ryan in Ohio, that's will be very interesting. He said, why are you because Ryan was attacking him for supporting all the election deniers and being part of that, and he said, why are you consolt concerned with that when Ohio, Ohio wins can't afford food and grant gat And that is a very concise statement of the Republican position because the flat out says we don't care about democracy. And Ryan had you know, he said, Ryan is a smart guy.

But the response, the democratic response overall, has to be these things are related, right when you vote for these when you vote for candidates backed by these corporations whose response to inflation sent to further raised prices because they can you know, you're that's what's driving information. Fascinating conversation as always Lincoln Mitchell Professor and a lot more as you can hear. In fact, he is the adjunct Associate Research Scholar at the Institute of War and Peace Studies

Columbia University. Many thanks for being with us here. Lincoln Mitchell speaking of the methodology in those polls. The New York Times poll survey seven ninety two likely voters, four point one percent margin of error, bigger poll for CBS. They talked to more than two thousand registered voters. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Son on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. A fascinating takeaway from this New York Times Siena poll as the winning formula.

The winning Democratic coalition during the Trump presidency relied, of course, you remember, on a significant gender gap and on winning women buy a wide margin. This pole just out shows Republicans have entirely erased what had been an eleven point edge for Democrats among women last month in twenty two congressional races to a statistical tie. In October, we assembled our panel. Rick Davis back with us and Jennie Chanzano

Bloomberg Politics contributors. What's your take on this, genie. The presidents could be knocking on doors around the country right now, but he's going to be spending the bulk of this week either in Rehobeth Beach or here in Washington, d C. What can Democrats do well? The president is doing the right thing. You know, he needs to go where he can be helpful. There's some states and some districts where he simply won't be helpful. In fact, he'll be the opposite.

So he is out raising money, he's out with candidates who need him and in whose districts and state he can you know, at least increased turnout. The most you know, sort of powerful Democrat going out at this point is Barack Obama and second of that seems to be Pete Buddha Judge. And the argument Democrats have to make over and over again is the focus on the insecurity that women feel about their health and their bodies as it

pertains to abortion. They have to talk about the presence of Donald Trump and the candidates he's gotten on the back this year successfully so. And they also have to say, unlike Republicans, they do have an answer to the problem of the economy and inflation. You know, one thing that the President has been saying accurately is show us what you're going to do. It's not enough just to say you're going to get into office. You have to say what you're gonna do when you're in there, and Republicans

haven't answered on that point. Well, Rick, what do you make of this? At eleven point edges? This is a story of just sort of vanishing? Is it a story of bad timing and proximity? The fact that the role ruling happened a little bit earlier in the cycle than that might have been beneficial to Democrats? Ors are more at work here. Well, I think a little bit of both, right, I mean, I do think it's cyclical. I do think

this issue around abortion peaked early. You look at you know where it was back at the end of June. I mean when you look at even things like Google search results for Roe v. Wade or abortion, it was it was super high, right, And that was at a time when Democrats were catching their win and starting to create some of this polling advantage, especially with independent women. And now economy is ahead of abortion, it's ahead of

Roe v. Wade searches. So you don't have to go very far to find sort of empirical evidence that people have changed their their their priorities, they've changed their point of view. Um, I don't disagree with Lincoln and Jeannie who say you've got to close a campaign with one of the strongest issues of abortion. But they've never developed.

Democrats have never developed a very good talking point around the economy and inflation, and certainly now with the advent of people talking about the inevitability of a recession, it's only gotten to be a steeper curve. And right now Democrats are running out of time. Joe Biden isn't given him any assistance his numbers, even though his his personal approval is up. When you look at his numbers on the economy, it's a disaster. So unlikely he's going to

be able to, you know, change the dynamic. I'll tell you that the president's travel schedule flom large in the White House briefing room today and Karine Jean Pierre, the Press secretary, was playing defense. As you can imagine on this. He is only scheduled to be in Pennsylvania this week. We've got three weeks to go here. Only one day he will be campaigning, and that is with John Fetterman in in a state that he actually refers to as

a as a bit of a home state. Here's Karine John Pierre in response, So last week, we spent four days in the country. Right. We left on Wednesday, came back Saturday night, to be more specific, two am on Sunday. Some of us walked into our house at two am one Sunday. Um. And the week before that, he spent four days out into the country. Uh. Some of that was yes for the hurricane in Puerto Rico, uh and going to see the recovery there. Us another day was

in Florida to talk to the American people. A lot of people got up for work at two o'clock in the morning or home from work, Genie on Sunday? Is that the best way to relate with Americans here? And and you know, why not just say the president's busy? Yeah? I mean the response that you know is wanting. Um. You know, there is a way for the White House to explain the president's schedule. He is doing everything he can to get Democrats elected to maintain the House and

the Senate. He has you know, his his schedule is exactly what it should be. And there's no question about that. Presidents cannot in a midterm year go where they're not wanted. They will, they will hurt their own party. But I

just want to say on this inflation economy issue. You know, Raphael Warnock didn't have the best debate on Friday night, but on that issue he did turn the tables on Walker when he talked about the Inflation Reduction Act and said, you've if you would have voted against it, you would have voted to keep prescription drugs insulin costs up. That's the answer for Democrats. They've got to say we are actually producing for you. That's why that vote was so important.

On the I r A, they aren't making that case. But Warnock started to get there on Friday night, and Walker had no response to that. I'll give you a taste to that. I think he should tell the people of Georgia, while he thinks they should have expensive insulin and while the farmer suitable companies should be able to charge us whatever they like. Well, first of all, respond,

you know, I believe in reducing insulin. But at the same time, you gotta eat right because he may not know and I know many people that's on inculin, and unless you have eating right, insulin is doing you're no good. So they eat right. Line. We got that. This went viral over the weekend. Herschel Walker was asked about it again today on nbcating, stand those states what you gotta eat right for if you taken instillent, you still gotta

eat the proper diet. Is that a Is that a response Rick Davis for Republican after that vote, Well, certainly not for my daughter who's a typeline juvenile diabetic and without light uh insulin, she would not be alive. So I think he's got to tighten up that message a

little bit. We're gonna spend, by the way, the end of the broadcast our our last fifteen minutes, We're gonna dig into the herschel Walker Raphael Warnock phenomenon, not just the debate, but everything that's been surrounding it, because a lot has happened since Friday and night, and we're gonna go to Utah next with another debate set for this evening. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. Welcome to Bloomberg Sound On.

As we turned to the race in Utah, as mentioned, Senator Mike Lee Is, Challenger Evan McMullen and Independent have a tall task ahead of them and what will be their only debate tonight. As I read from Zach Cohen's peace on the terminal. They have to win over a big block of undecided and uh, these numbers obtained by Bloomberg Government, sixteen percent of likely voters say they are undecided.

That's uh, that's one poll of separate pole that Bloomberg government is putting up here shows uh, not too far apart, twelve percent undecided. Mike Lee ahead but not by a lot and below. That's why we discussed on Friday his plea on Fox News the Republican incumbent for Mitt Romney of course, also Utah to get on board and endorsement. Please get on board, help me win re election. Help us do that. You can get your entire family to

donate to me, please. And Evan McMullin shows up on Meet the Press, My goodness talking to Chuck Todd about this. And if you, if you are elected, will you caucus with the Republicans? Would you vote for Mitch McConnell. These are the questions that are being asked now in a race that not a lot of people were looking at a couple of months ago. Well, look, the parties are going to decide who they choose to lead them. I won't be part of that as an independent and whatever

scenario Chuck. The parties in Washington and others, they're going to have to figure out what this means for them on their own. I'm committed to maintaining my independence. I'm building a cross partisan coalition. I also believe that our country just needs more independent leaders who will stand up to party bosses on both sides. That's the story he's telling right now. And he's friends with Mitt Romney, so mikely is not likely going to get donations from MIT's

entire family. The two polls I mentioned, by the way, do have Lee ahead, Just not buy a lot. Like I said, forty favored by and one poll in the other Bloomberg government. Zack Cohen has made his way to Utah for the one and done tonight. Zach, welcome. It's great to have you here. What's the job then? How how do you appeal to undecided voters? You have to

play it to the center. This is really one of the more fascinating races to watch this cycle, precisely because it does not comport with the normal partisan lines that

we're seeing a lot of Senate races. You've got sender Mike Lee, one of the more conservative members of the Senate on one side, who really tonight has to really start coalescing support from Republicans who are not sold on his reelection race, despite the fact that Utah's is a rather red state voted for Trump by over twenty points, and Ed McMullan, I would say, has a harder task trying to introduce himself to those voters who don't know him yet and try to get a coalition of not

just Democrats and Independence but also Republicans that would agree to trade Lee for McMullan in the Senate and hand a and the Senate something of a of a potential swing vote that could be really critical on major pieces of legislation. You spoke with the data analyst in your piece, who are referred to a double digit share of undecided voters that we're talking about here showing quote a very low engagement state this cycle. What what does that mean?

So the poll that we were able to get our hands on, six percent, as you mentioned, were undecided between Lee and McMullan, which is a rather large number of voters, especially considering there were only a couple of weeks out. Is it because they're not paying attention though I think

it's also just a more complicated race. There's no Democrat in this race, so really Democrats are the ones that make up the big share of these undecided voters who are looking at Mike Lee on one side on the right and Nevi McMullen on the you know, the center left, and trying to decide whether McMullan is going to be their guy in this race. And so I think a lot of voters are going to make up their decisions as we get closer and closer to all action day.

But certainly this debate provides both candidates an opportunity to address those candidates those voters that aren't sold on them yet. Does low engagement equal low turnout? It could. Mid Term elections do generally have a lower turnout than a presidential race. That's actually true among populations that tend to favor Democrats. Typically, you know, Republican voters are a little more consistent in coming out to the polls. Um, So I think the

certainly the combination of a mid term cycle. You don't have a presidential election on the top of the ballot, um and not and no governor's race either. Um. The Senate race really is the only race to come out for and doesn't really give voters as much to come out for, especially if it's not clear that the Senate UH control is going to be decided based on this race. Well, how does it feel now that you're there? Are people actively talking about mid terms? Are they talking issues? Who's

winning the sign war? I think we're gonna find out later at the at the debate. I'm still at my hotel, to be honest with you, but I think folks UH

folks with are certainly seeing plenty of TV ads. You know, I think the Club for Growth has come in and spent over three million dollars trying to buttress Mike Lee from the right and attacking McMullan on a sort of conservative bona fide days, and McMullan spending you know, a couple of you know, two million dollars something like that, arguing, Hey, I'm going to be the independent voice in the Senate UM And so, you know, I didn't see a ton of campaign signs on the way into town yesterday, but

certainly if you turn on a TV it's hard to miss the advertising. Enjoy the show tonight, come back and see as soon. Zach Cullen Bloomberg Government reporting from Utah on the Senate race out there. This is an interesting one, uh and I'd love to just get some quick impressions from the panel here, Jennie Schanzano, Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics Contributors. If you're walking into an event like this, a debate like this one tonight, Rick, how do you thread the

needle on? You know, look, if you're Mike Lee being a good Republican but also appealing to undecided and Evan McMullen as an independent, just defining that is difficult for people. Well, I think it's really up to Evan tonight. I mean, people know Mike Lee, right, he's a well established political figure in the idea that you're going to change anybody's mind about him is pretty limited. But Evan McMullen is

a bit of an oddball. You know, he's an independent running in a decidedly you know, blue and red state, and and he gets a chance tonight to say, you know, how he feels about Joe Biden, how he feels about inflation and what Joe Biden's done. You know, he gets to talk a little bit about abortion, you know, and try to finger his way through a pretty uh, pretty conservative state. So it's really all about Evan McMullen in my score book, Genie, how do you slice that one?

Knowing as Zack said, there's no Democrat in the race here, so it kind of changes the strategy. Yeah, and you know, I think I agree with Rick. It is up to Evan McMullan to explain who he is and what he can do. And I thought fascinating over the weekend he was making the case that an election of an independent voice like his and he said he won't caucus with either party over six years. He said that that is going to give this more power than they've ever had.

So to me, I thought he was making the case that, you know, much like unlike we have in the United States, he's going to have more power outside the party, which is an absolutely new argument to make. And if he can do it, God bless him, it'll be duplicated if if it works, Genie and Rick stand by as we look towards what in the world happens next. In Georgia, we had a little taste of the Herschel Raphael Warrntock debate from Friday. There's a lot more ahead, I'm Joe Matthew.

This is Bloomberg. That is a I pointed out the fact that he claimed to be in law enforcement, to be a police officer. One thing I have not done. I've never pretended to be a police officer. And you know what's so funny, I am wit minute police all letters. And this response was to produce a fake that's a bad that I was given by a police officer. And I do have the bad. I cared with me all the time. It's not it's a real bad. It's not

a fake bad. It is a real bad. That's badges from uh this bad and I have badges all over then all over Georgia. I ask you to put that proper way where it's not a problem. This is real, And he said, I have a problem. This is from my hometown. This is from Johnson County, from the share from Johnson County, which is a legit badge. Everyone can make fun, but this bad you mean it right if

they let me finish. I've been very transparent about my life. He, on the other hand, claimed to be a police officer. He's not, even though he produced a badge on the Friday night, claimed to work for the FBI clearly did not if anything happened in this counter I have a right to work with the police getting things done. It's a real bad. It's not a fake bad. It is

a real bad. But badge is legit, he says Herschell Walkers, speaking again with NBC News, they got the cell phone, answering to one of the more bizarre moments of the mid term election cycle, his choice to flash a police badge during his debate, or did he say it was an FBI accident? Senator Rappael Warnock a regular tracknet and

so we must reassemble the panel. Rick Davis and Jeanie Schanzano are our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors who knew the full version there from is it Ray Anthony that thinks swings man? Rick Davis, I don't know what you would have told Raphael Warnock to do, because it almost seemed like they felt the prop was coming here. He pulls the back. You saw him, uh, quite a bit earlier,

reach into the jacket. He very slowly pulled out the badge, and apparently he does say now in this interview he carried it with him everywhere he goes He did not, however, prove to us that it was an actual badge that allowed him to arrest, give him arresting rights, that he was in fact a trained police officers had been alleged

where are you on props at debates? Well, props are always a controversial thing, uh, And I'd say that what I noticed about this to it wasn't the prop itself, because you kind of hoped and realized he was gonna show the badge. He was gonna whip out that badge at some point. But like the incredible reaction by the moderator, I mean, it's, oh my god, over the top. People will be talking about her for a long time. A schoolmarm's got nothing on her. She was not going to

let him show his badge. And that became part of this show. And and that's the unfortunate part about a lot of these debates, as the moderator kind of gets in the way the message and and becomes the message. And I think that's the case here. Look, I mean, every time he takes that badge out, he's talking about how much he loves police, and that is a good campaign tactic. And until somebody, you know, but in person ground,

it takes it away. Look, I mean, from what I can tell, the conversation says he's had with interviews like today, Um, he's not looking to you know, pretend to be a cop. He's looking to help the cops anyway. Canon When the Sheriff of Johnson County was asked about it, he says, yeah, we we look forward to him being helpful to us anytime he wants to be. So, like you know, he he's got it. He's got it covered. He's not trying

to be a copy. He's a cop wanna be And you know how many how many people sit around hopeful that there are people who are willing to help the cops. So I'm not explaining this away. It's a crazy thing that happened, but like you know, it's probably crazy and helpful to him. Right, I'm so crazy. I love cops. Uh. Look, I guess did it help Elvis Pressley Genie? I'm not sure, but I want to bring you back into the debate this one moment because everyone got, you know, including myself,

distracted by the badge. Listen to what Senator Warnock actually says. Though, it's not just that you you were a police officer, there's war. Let me go back to the actual moment in that debate. One thing I have not done. I've never pretended to be a police officer about that, and I've never I've never threatened a shootout with the police. What how could nobody followed up on that, Genie that was an a p story from last February that in his past he in fact threatened a shootout with police.

That doesn't seem to sort of coalesced with the rest of the message here. Yeah, and you know, I think the reason is just what you said prior, which is people were distracted by the badge. And you know, I was not surprised at all that he pulled that out because he does not have a message. And as Raphael Warnock was talking about today more effectively than quite frankly Friday night, because I watched the debate, um he is

not a serious candidate for the US Senate. And when you're not a serious candidate, you must distract by visuals, And he did that fairly effectively for somebody in their debate, because what is what do people think about? Then they're thinking about an issue that helps Republicans crime. What aren't they talking about you know, his issues with his children, his paying for abortions, other issues involving abortion, his stance on issues like insulin and prescription drugs and all of

those serious topics. So it did work effectively. Unfortunately, it took over the debate. And you know, Raphael Warnut did not perform at the debate to the level he probably wishes he did. He did better on Sunday night. But of course Walker wasn't there at the second debate, and there was an empty chair last night. But I'll tell you what. The The abortion issue did come up, of course, and and let's let's just let this air out for

one second. Herschel Walker on abortion at the debate. I believe in life, and I tell people this, Georgia is a state that respects life, and I'll be a center that protects life. And I said that was a lie, and I'm not bagging down, referring of course, to this, uh, this whole scandal in which he uh, he has been denying that he encouraged and a former girlfriend and paid for an abortion woman who apparently fathered or did actually

give birth to another child of his. But this came up in this same NBC interview, Rick, I hate God, do I have to do all this background every time? It's brutal. NBC. She's got a picture of the check and they talked this out. I have no idea what the can before is that your it could be but doesn't matter whether it's my singtu or not gone out. We don't want any names. Yes that's my check. You

didn't have a job, dude, you have a job. Any questions whether she had a job at the time, So we just the check has been acknowledged here Rick, whether the motivation was there, idnore the timing or what he knew the check was going for. But does this not matter any longer. That's that would have been a huge development a week ago. Yeah, I think it would have

been a huge development. It was a huge development a week ago, you know, just off the information we had in the denials that he gave and I was following Genie on our analysis that you know, he's going to use this prop and distract everybody until he then does an interview and starts talking about abortion again. Like I mean, like if he just shut up and go back to Johnson County, let the sheriff lock him up for the next three weeks he'll be a senator. I mean, like

it's it's unbelievable. You know that he has this desire to try to nationalize the race beyond what it's already being. I mean, why do you give a national interview for a time when you're trying to run for senator and try to localize the election. Look, I mean, he is not a normal candidate for the United States Senate, and he doesn't have the experience. He's doing this by route. Uh and Uh. I'm sure his advisors are making it up as they go along, because they've got a unique

candidate who is really hard to manage. And and I don't think this is the last we're gonna hear about him. He'll probably change his tune on this issue a number

of times before now on election day. Uh And and we're so polarized right now, especially in a state like Georgia where we've seen so many elections of such a short period of time that um, I honestly don't know if there's anything either of these candidates can do to really move a significant portion of the electric real clear average still has warnock up by well, it's three point three. We'll call it three. Just for safety's sake here, Jeannie, can I ask to either of you guys have a

gut check on this race? Is this seat going to flip? Jennie, Well, you know it. To Rick's point, I was so curious as to why they're putting Walker out with these national interviews. He had a better than expected debate. You think he would go quietly into the good night and try to ride the polls and not talk too much, and yet they had him out in multiple national interviews, which some people are reading as a sign that the internal polling

does not look good for him. You know, obviously he's he's you know, behind, but just within a margin if you look at real clear. So, you know, I think the likelihood is Warnock is maybe able to hold this out, but I do think we're going to see it going to a runoff. Barack Obama is going to Georgia the end of October to try to, you know, act as the closer here for the senator. Rick, what's your thought? You know, look, that's a high stake scamble for the

Warnock campaign. I mean, they're entering a new dynamic into the election that could mobilize Republican voters in a way that they aren't currently UM. And the fact that Donald Trump is staying out of the state for a while, you know, is giving you know, voters a chance to sort of side with a Republican Canada if they're upset with um, you know, the current president or the state of the economy. So he's putting himself into a bit of a vacuum. I think it's a bit of a risk.

The fact that Warnock is pulling a little ahead. Reality is this is a dead heat. Nobody can sit on this race. Uh. And the reality too is that um, you know, if if if Georgia votes the way the national trends look, it's gonna vote strong at the end of this election cycle, uh, for the Republican. And and when you see Governor Kemp running so far ahead, he'll

drive the ballot, not the Senate race. And so if a Republican votes for the governor and he's winning by over fifty, is he really gonna then cross over and vote for Warnuck. I don't think so. I think it's going to well. I think they all usually just go right down the line, right, I mean, and bullet voters are not well known in Jordan's end. You're banking on this thing, certainly. Walker is Rick Davis, g D. Schanzano.

Great talk as always. Tomorrow is the three week mark and we are lucky to have the best panel in the business to round the bend on this cycle. We've got a lot to learn still between now an election night in November. We've got big plans for you that night too. I'll meet you back here tomorrow. The fastest hour in politics, This is Bloomberg.