Sound On: Affordable Care Act Subsidies, Biden Ratings

like Saudi Arabia. I did. I always like to. I am a mama grizzly and I'll rear up on my hind legs where somebody comes after my put Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Most Democrats do not want Joe Biden to run for re election, so says The New York Times. Welcome to the fastest hour in politics. As talk about a possible recession grows louder and more than six Democrats tell posters they want a

new face in the White House. We talk about the communications strategy and the historic headwinds facing the Biden agenda. Coming up with Jane Hall, political science professor at American University. Later one of the biggest economic stories that no one is talking about Obamacare. Subsidies expire at the end of the year and Democrats may not be able to prevent it.

We'll talk about it with the architect of the Affordable Care Act, Professor John Gruber of m I T and our signature panel in place here on a Monday, Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeannie Schanzano are with US President Biden speaking to the benefits of bipartisanship today in a sunny White House ceremony to celebrate the gun safety legislation that past weeks ago. Here he is on the south lawn. Make no mistake about it. This legislation israel progress,

but more has to be done. The provision of this new legislation is gonna save lives. It's true that today's politics, we can come together on a bipartisan base to get the basics to get important things done, even on an

issue is office guns. While on the other side of Pennsylvania Avenue, Democrats and Republicans arguing over a reconciliation bill, Senator Chuck Schumer is pushing by the way, Schumer testing positive for COVID last night, even as that bill this Reconciliation Bill, build back Better Light, as I've been calling it, threatens to derail the China Competes legislation that includes the CHIP AC. We've got these two things. Democrats want them

both passed. Mitch McConnell, though he says no to reconciliation. You guys do that. I'm out on the Chip deal. Commerce Secretary Genet Romando telling Bloomberg today the Chip Act, that China Competes Act, you sicco whatever you want to call it. It's got about fifty different names, will pass. Despite what you've been hearing. This just a day after she told ABC News that the US is not going into a recession. Here she is. I do think at some point, you know, we will see a less rapid

growth in the economy. But I don't see any reason to think that we will have a serious recession. Will not have a serious recession. A lot of people do think we are As a matter of fact, Lee Cooperman is one of them. He told Bloomberg today that a recession is coming, not this year, but next not a great recipe for November. And when we talk later on this hour with Jonathan Gruber, will add another iron to the fire here with the prospect of Obamacare subsidies expiring

by the end of the year. Now, a new poll from the New York Times at Siena College find six Democratic voters would prefer a different nominee than Joe Biden. Now, we've got a long way to go before but this is not the headline the White House wanted today. The president in this poll, I had to double check. This has a thirty three percent job approval rating. Now is this all about inflation or does this White House have

a major messaging problem? We talked about it right now with Jane Hall, political science professor in the Community Asian School at American University here in Washington, author of the new book Politics and the Media, Intersections and New Directions. Jane, thank you for being here. When you see a thirty three approval rating, has the White House lost the narrative? I think that they have a very difficult task ahead

of him and them. They did initially have trouble getting credit for a lot of the legislation that he got through early on that were pieces of legislation that helped the American people through covid um. The job's report is very strong, but people are concerned about inflation, and people are concerned about a coming recession possibility. I mean, it couldn't being more uh stark in the sense that, Um, he is facing a challenge from progressives to his left

saying they want him to do more on guns. So he's just touting a new bi but a lot of people feel it should include a ban on assault weapon, including some of the families that were involved in this legislation. Uh. You know, he was interrupted today. I don't know if you saw this on the South Lawn Man Well Oliver interrupted the the event. This is, of course, father of

one of the Parkland victims. He was disgusted. He showed up there just to yell at the president and told the Miami Herald after that this whole thing was the event itself was a bad idea. Um, this is a president that can't seem to win at the moment as he prepares to go abroad to Saudi Arabia, that's going to upset both progressives who think that he's you know, forgetting the human rights record they're not acknowledging it and Republicans who wanted to drill more here Jane. So he

literally can't win it's it's really he is. And if we say in the South Cat between the rock and a hard play, I mean he is facing people who are concerned in his party over what they see as a two tepid risk once to the Supreme Court decisions on abortion, on the environment, to what a lot of people on his side of the ledger UH are concerned about is a route UH in Congress in the mid term elections. I mean, Uh, this would not be unprecedented, of course for a president and his party to lose

UH feats after being elected in a mid term. But the Republicans are so well organized and and so well there's a lot of enthusiasm on their side for what I think of his more cultural issues. UH, and a lot of people are saying that they want a Biden administration to take the lead. UM. And he's got a very very difficult situation. He is a man who is seeped in bipartisanship, still speaks of his Republican friends, and Um,

he's not. He's not. Even when he makes a very forceful statement about gun control right after a mass shooting, right after you bald Um, there's still people who think including that that man whose child was killed. It's not enough, need to do more. You shouldn't be congratulating yourself. I think we're in a very unusual situation also in terms of our media environment. Joe. Well, that's what I want to talk to you about. Absolutely. Now, you've covered a

number a number of as a newsperson. As a journalist, you covered a number of administrations. You've seen the malaise. I hate to always use that word because everybody says Jimmy Carter, but this kind of, you know, this difficult historical period as you go into the mid terms following the election of a new president not so new at this point. But how much of this is the responsibility of the communications office? How much of this actually is the messaging, the lack of victory lap or whatever it

is that you want to call it. When you look at this New York Times pole, something is off here. Because you started our conversation talking about, uh, some of the major accomplishments. Nobody even remembers the infrastructure bill at this point that was supposed to be historic. Jane. How much of this is the story then that the White

House is telling? I think I think initially their messaging was not good and I had a journalist tell me that they that they thought to Biden administration expected them to be more favorable. And I think that people were determined to prove they were they were going to be as tough on Biden as they were on Trump. I

happen to believe that's true. But I think that now we're in a situation where half the country's not paying attention to the very serious allegations against Donald Trump, with a Congressional committee hearings not being watched by people who watch box news and being watched by other people. Um, you know, he there's a lot that he can point to. There's a long time between now and I think that Another concern is a generational one. You know, whom do they have on the bench? Uh, if it's not Biden,

you know, whom did they have to run? And what will they do in you know, will my students come out to vote? And how will they vote in twenty two? How will they come out to in November? Sorry, you know, how will they come out? Will they come out? When you speak to a lot of young people, they are very disturbed by the state of the world, and you

can't blame them, you know, that's right. And President Biden seems to think that there'll be a female revolution at the polls and and and maybe the pollsters aren't capturing that right now. But you're the one who grabbed onto inflation. And that's what everyone seems to agree, is the fact. The driving principle here what people will carry into the voting booth with them, which doesn't leave a lot. My gosh, so what if they get this Reconciliation bill or maybe

the Chips Act happens. Some CEOs are happy about that. Wall Street likes that, but people aren't talking about Yuseka around the dinner table. Jane, Well, you're you're right there not And I think it's up to the Democrats and the Biden administration to find ways to better count you know, the jobs report. Uh. I mean, when you're dealing with fear of what might happen psychologically, that is a pretty powerful thing. As opposed to, hey, look what we've just

done for you. They have to somehow say this is what we've done for you. We're on it regarding inflation, We're doing the right moves. And you know, somehow he's getting blamed and the Republicans are blaming him, So if they don't find a way to tout their own achievements and also to capitalize on what is a lot of anger in this country among women over the over the abortion ruling. That's where I think a lot of a lot of the Democratic operatives are hoping that this can

be something people will come out and vote on. But if but Biden struggling, I think to find his way on on what he's going to do about that? What can you do what will make a difference? When you look at this pole, you see Democratic voters this again New York Times prefer a different nominee in twenty four. I'm curious for your view on this. You see sometimes how poles evolve through an election cycle. This sort of generic test that we're doing at this stage of the game.

What if it's Biden versus Trump. What if there's a name on the other side of the gene? How does that change people's feelings? Oh? That totally changes people feelings. If you know, when when it's somebody against nobody, that's a different story. Um, when you have a poll that that that puts Donald Trump in four against Joe Biden, then I think you you know the polling is showing that that Biden would would beat Trump. I think what you're seeing now is people trying to figure out what

about his age, how this factor is that? But it's a factor for both of them. Right? Are we going to relive the last election? Are we doing this again? I hope not. I mean, you know again, I think of my students. You know, I heard um aoc talk on one of the talk shows a couple of weeks ago about what she thought was the need for new veathor was a delicate way of saying, that's right. Amtrak, Joe, it's a one way ride home. I don't know. We'll

see Jane. I'm glad you could come in. I've been looking forward to the conversation Jane Hall with this American University of the book Politics and the Media Intersections, New Directions, and we assemble our panel. Next to pick up right here with Rick Davis and Jeanie Chanzano on the Fastest Hour in Politics. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg. So long with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio.

The White House says again the economy is not going into a recession at least not a bad one, and there's always a chance of that. Wall Street seems to think differently, as articulated by legendary investor Leon Cooperman, chair of Omega Advisers. He was on Bloomberg Surveillance talking about this this morning. Give him a listen. I think that ultimately the price of oil, or the FED or maybe the strong dolla, we'll lead us into a reset, Shan.

And when the recession hits, which will be event when it is that, the market will find the bottom somewhere between thirty below it's peak. So next year worse than this year? What does that mean for twenty four Let's assemble the panel, Rick Davis, Jeannie Chanzano with us here on the Monday edition or signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors on sound on. Is what I meant to say, Jeannie,

We've got some trouble here. If that's the case, people are feeling the impact of inflation now and we'd see the results, according to Lee Cooperman, by next year in the form of a recession. Of course, some people think we are already in one. The Governor of New Hampshire over the weekend on the Sunday talk shows was calling for the firing of Janet Yellen for misleading the American people. The messaging again seems to come back into our conversation

on an almost daily basis. What does the White House need to be saying about it? You know, they need to be addressing it head on. And you know, we heard Sonno, as you mentioned over the weekend. You know, it is astonishing to me because when the job numbers came out, Oh what was that Friday, what we were told in a you know, briefly in the minute that Joe Biden talked about them was this eased recession fears. And yet over the weekend, Gina Romando aside, there was

this drumbeat that that's not the case. And so you know, they need to come out and address this, and they need to stop stepping on their own good messages. And I'll give you another one. Gas prices, gas prices, gas prices, oil prices going down. Why aren't they talking more about that? So they've got to do that. And you know I said on Friday, they should not have melded this the EO with the jobs numbers. They should have done both if they could have. Yeah, the Roe v Wade the

job speech, because that does muddy the waters there. And the one thing I heard, I will tell you from progressives through today was they didn't listen to a word about the jobs. All I heard was the President say go vote, and that annoyed them, you know, and annoyed as a kind way of saying how they felt about that message. Rick, You you've spent a career advising politicians sometimes when they were not doing well. Is it time for like a victory parade down Pennsylvania Avenue to draw

people's attention to what has happened? Well, I'm not exactly sure declaring victory at this stage is going to actually reconnect Joe Biden with the American people. You've got all the jobs back that were lost in COVID. Isn't that at least in it self worth something? I think it is. Uh, this administration has chosen to sort of, you know, kick it to the curb. As Jeanie said, they spent more time frankly, talking about abortion than the just success of

their jobs initiatives. Um, but the problem is you're in this weird pinch, right because in order to ensure that we don't have a recession, joblessness has to go up. Our our dear friend Larry Summers talks about the sacrifice ratio and we need to lose ten million jobs in order to stop from having a recession and calls pal to optimistic. So, I mean, we're in a very strange environment where success is failure and failure would be success.

Uh More, unemployment will encourage us not to go into recession. And so uh the minute Joe Biden goes out there, his own team is saying things that are sort of the antithesis of declaring success on the jobs front. We had kind of the opposite today, the President of the South lawn to celebrate the new gun safety bill. Uh it was a huge ceremony, my goodness. Half of Capitol Hill was there along with stakeholders, along with victims of

family members from from mass shootings. And one of them showed up talked about this briefly with Jane Hall to heckle the president to stand up and interrupt this event. That's Manuel Oliver, the father one of the students killed at the march Stoneman Douglas High School. He is now an activist. Of course, I want you to listen to hear President Biden's gonna be talking about the signing of this bill, and you'll hear what happens from there. Today's

many things. It's proof that despite the naysayers, we can make meaningful progress. I'm dealing with gun violence because make no mistake, sad down, you'll hear what I have to say. If you think Manuel Oliver now stands up, we cannot hear what he's saying. Nobody picked it up on the microphones. Wearing a T shirt and a jacket right there, he says, I've been trying to tell you this for years. Let him talk, Let him talk, no one, Okay, well they

didn't let him talk. The Secret Service dragged him out of the ceremony, which stands to happen when you stand up, uh and interrupt the president. Genie, this again is what you're talking about. Progressives are not getting enough. Even as Republicans say they're going nowhere with this president, the left of his party is sounding a lot like they are they are. And you know, that was sort of a perfect example of what we've been seeing. Here was the

president trying to celebrate the work he's done. You know, I was not a big fan of this. You know, bill, which I can hardly call a gun bill. I I agree with Mr Oliver, but you know, it was a step forward. It was bipartisan to Rick davids point. Yet they're trying to celebrate it and the President gets heckled at his own event. Progressives are outraged, they're frustrated, they're disappointed,

and you know, just briefly back to inflation. If the president wants to know what happens when people get frustrated by inflation, look at what's going on in Sri Lanka right now. They have descended to the palace to out there in the swimming pool. Right now, they're in the pool, and and that's I'm afraid where we're headed, although I should not say that, so God forbid a Rick uh in thirty seconds? Here was that an opportunity missed to

the president of gone out and hugged him. Um well, I think what the opportunity was is they hadn't det with the guy well in advance of this, and this is another missed by the administration. Boy Rick and Genie or with us for the hour, our magnature panel, of course you're on Bloomberg. Sound on to the next potential problem for this White House. Next, it's about Obamacare. We'll

have Jonathan Bruber with us on Bloomberg. There's another deadline hanging over Democrats in Washington, the expiration of enhanced subsidies for people who get health insurance through the Affordable Care Act. They were enhanced during COVID and they expire the end of this year unless Democrats can find a solution. They may have, but we want to talk about how this all works and how much of an impact it would actually have. With the architects of Obamacare, M I T

economist professor Jonathan Gruber. He's with us now on Bloomberg. Sound On, Jonathan, Welcome back to Bloomberg. Good. The Washington Post calls it a looming disaster and a ticking time bomb. What do you call this? I call this a real failure of government policy to take advantage of an opportunity to u to ensure that health insurance affordable for millions of Americans. Look, I think it's useful Joe of a

little background. So, when we passed the Affordable Care Act back in President Obama was very serious about making sure that it was not only deficit neutral, but deficit reducing. And what that meant was the subsidies were the subsidies that people could use to buy health insurance on the exchanges, We're not quite as generous as they should have been. I think the feeling was, look, let's get this ball rolling,

and eventually that we made more generous. That followed after with the Trump administration undercutting the A C exchanges in ways that dramatically raised the premiums on the exchanges, leading to situation where basically, unless you get a government subsidy, it's pretty hard to afford coverage on these exchanges. So COVID brought the subsidies so so in response to covid UH, the Biden administration added h subsidies, which made it more

affordable for people to get insurance on the change. In particular, it ended the so called subsidy cliff above, which where people above four times the poverty line. So the fixed ideas that's about a hundred grand for a family of four hundred grand is it is not nothing that that that's above the average income in America, but it's also a point at which health insurance can still be a large share of income if you're older in an expensive

area of the country. So basically the situation where you have people who really were uh, could see the premiums go up a hundred percent or more uh if we if we get rid of these subsidies are put in by the by the administration or more. The Urban Institute estimates the expiration could add hundreds of dollars to the annual premium payments for the lowest earners and leave over three million people uninsured. Jonathan, do you see those numbers that way? Look, the numbers are hard to predict, but

the direction is unbelievably clear. And I think remember two things will happen with these expired It's very important to separate them. First of all, many low income people we pay more money and some will lose insurance. More relevant is the middle income people for whom before the exchanges were unaffordable, because, as I said, the sabotage that was undertaken or in the Trump administration really raised premiums to the roof. They will lose act they will it will

become simply unaffordable for them. Won't be a matter of hundreds of a matter of thousands. And so really these are both problems. It's both about making these premiums more affordable for the lowest income people who are in these A C exchanges, but also giving really getting access for middle income people to this important government program. A group of Democratic governors sent a letter to Congress over a week ago urging them to act on this as we

head for the mid term elections. It's not just Congress, of course being reelected here. Is there anything that can be done on the state level that governors themselves could do? You know, um, yes, I mean governors could do what we do in Massachusetts, which is in Massachusetts we actually top up the federal premiums to make the program more

generous varsity residents. But that's expensive, uh, and that's not really not the job of the states that the federal program in the federal revern should be making it happen not likely to be duplicated, So I I don't think it's likely to happen. Like you're no stranger to politics here, professor. It's to solve this in the weeks and months ahead of the midterm elections may well be impossible. That would leave almost no time following November to get this done

before the end of the year. You know, this should be a major talking point in the campaigns for for you know, in the election if if we cannot get this done, the voters should understand that electing turning Congress over the Republicans means it simply will not happen. While leaving Congress hands the Democrats at least leave some chance it will. So it's clear who's for the news against it. It's clear that the Democratic Party would like this to happen.

It remains there remains conversations on on the Reconciliation Act. That is a bill that you pass with only Democratic votes, which would include extending these subsidies. Um. But um, they have to do that on a partisan basis because Republicans have been uniformly opposed to extending these subsidies which make insurance affordable for millions of Americans. And I think that's something voters need to think hard about as they cast

their votes in November. Professor Grewber, I want to ask you about some of the comments that President Biden made. Is he was discussing reproductive rights for women as part of an executive order he was signing. Here, he talked about the the A c A and what it does your guarantees coverage of contraception. But what policies do insurers have to honor with when it comes to reproductive rights?

Are there any Well? No, I mean this is this is this is the next big battle coming, Joe, And which is that basically there is a mandate on insurers that they must cover contraception, but it does not spell out exactly what that means. If they're on the exchange, that does spell out what it means. So on the exchanges, its specifically spells a set of benefits, one of which is the so called Plan B bill. Um, what happens if a state suddenly says the Plan B bill they've

decided as abortion, not going to cover it. Well, then suddenly you have state law in conflict with the federal law and it's going to go to the courts. Uh. And the federal law doesn't automatically override the state law. That that's that's a legal problem. No, I mean, insurers, our insurance regulations are truly not the state level. Is plan be considered contraception from the lego? That's exactly the question.

Because contraception that I think we're a very different situation than if the state declares it abortion, where they've just

outlawed abortion. If they start rolling plan being into their definition of abortion, then suddenly they can say insures shouldn't cover it, and insures, you know, state law typically takes precedence here, So suddenly you could see millions of women who have had tens of millions of women who have had this reproductive um right allowed to them take if you could have it taken away, things are about to get confusing here. Professor Jonathan Gruber, economist at M I

T and architect of Romney Care and Obamacare. It's great to have you back on Bloomberg. Thanks good to be here. Anytime. We've got the panels take on this next. Can Democrats handle this in reconciliation? As Jonathan suggests, that might be the one swing at the ball that they're going to get. And President Biden's packing bags, well, somebody is at the White House. Two days from now they head to Israel and then on to Saudi Arabia. Well it results in

more oil. Will reassemble the panel next, and here from Rick and Jennie on the Fastest Hour in Politics, sound on, This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg. Sound on on Bloomberg Radio.

So based on what we've learned this hour. The best case scenario for Democrats in Washington ahead of the mid terms is passing that China Competes bill with the chip backs with the hell of some Republicans, and also finding a way to pass a reconciliation bill that includes a prescription drug component we've already heard about but now also extends subsidies for the Affordable Care Act. The worst case, nothing gets done. Let's reassemble the panel with Bloomberg Politics

contributors Jeanie Chanzano and Rick Davis. Ricky's reconciliation suddenly then the most important item on the list for this White House. We know lawmakers are gone the better part of of August. Then it's back to campaigning. I'm assuming after that this

is the time now, right, Yeah, you're right, Joe. I mean they are running down the clock and and and even though reconciliation can be hot burnered, uh, it's it's still going to require some effort to convince Democrats and including our friend Joe Mansion from West Virginia to buy in. But it is their number one talking point right now is to what they want to try and sell to the American public in advance of the elections in November. So my guess is, yes, they're gonna put all their

chips in this basket. Did frameless properly, Genie, because this a c a issue that we just discussed with Jonathan Ruber, is something that's not in the mainstream conversation yet. There's been a couple of columns, a couple of op eds. But this has to get a lot louder for people to respond. Right, that's right, and it is critically important, and that's why it's so important. You had that conversation. Um. You know, for the Democrats, this has been something that

they have been wanting to do. They have talked an awful lot about it, but I still am skeptical. Number one because of the calendar. Number two is Rick mentioned because not just Joe mentioned, but Kristen Cinema as well. And then number three, imagine this, even if they get a deal in the Senate, and that would be a big deal if they get something, how do they get something like this through the House. Just look at my state, for instance, the salt issue that has been a critical issue.

I don't know that Democrats are going to accept changes to the tax code without changes to sault in the House. So there's a number of of of curdles here. Obviously, in a very short period of time, Ricky spent a good chunk of your career in the upper Chamber. What

about that wild West chamber known as the House. Look, I think that no matter what comes out of the Senate, if something came out of the Senate, and especially if it includes this fix to the A C A, which is really important that democratic constituencies, Uh, they got to eat it. Uh, and they got to eat it quick because they are running out of time, as we've talked about.

So actually, I think it's the best possible strategy is to force the House to have to act on it without any time available and get their backs up against the wall and say either take it or leave it, and don't be the ones that beat this deal. So Uh, they will come under incredible pressure by the Biden administration to give him something he can sign before Labor Day.

We haven't talked about the trip very much yet, but we need to get into it because there are a lot of reporters on their way to the Middle East right now. Not to mention the White House Advanced crew that's been there for some time. The president is coming. It's gonna be Israel, and yes, it's gonna me Saudi Arabia.

And you know who was talking about it over the weekend, not just White House surrogates trying to tamp down this image of the president going hat in hand begging for oyl but Donald Trump went up to Alaska to do an event and he got to it. Here's the former president instead of energy independence the US who's becoming an absolute beggar for energy. You see what they're doing. He's going to Saundi Arabia to ask for oil. He didn't like Saundi Arabia. I did. I always liked him, but

he didn't like him. Now he's going there and he's asking for oil. Please give us energy. That's how the country is going to be looking at this right, Jeanie. Why is the White House going out of its way to sort of frame this as a security trip. Why not just say this president is getting on an airplane to get your gas prices lower. Yeah, we heard the President over the weekend with this op ed that they put out, and he's trying to you know, sort of defend,

you know, a sort of walk back. I guess or defend the statements he made as a campaigner, and now that he is isn't And the message seems to be that he is not going to give the Saudis a blank check like the Trump administration did. But he understands there a strategic partner of you know, a number of years, eight plus years, and the goal is to reorient those relationships, not rupture them. That's the message coming out of the

White House. Whether it sells is another question, because of course one big question is it going to you know, uh, is it going to succeed in reducing gas prices which are already going down to a certain extent. But then, of course there's the optics of this. You know, does he shake hands with the Prince? You know, does he say anything about the killing of Jamal ka Shogi all of these things which should be fascinating to watch. Well,

that's true. So you know, we heard from Terry Haynes today, the founder of Pangaea Policy, and he was talking about what's waiting for Joe Biden there that that it might not actually be what he thinks, that that things are pretty tapped out already. Here's Terry Haynes, Billpack is already at the Saudiast behalf increased tomping slightly. Uh something that was seen as both kind of a welcome match for

Biden and a pushback at the Russians a bit. Uh So, the benefit on oil that the United States and the President gets out of this has already happened. So what's the point if that's the case? Rick, he said that on Bloomberg today, there's gonna be a big disappointment when he comes home. Well, I hate to call it a quid pro quote, but it sounds like a quid pro quote. You know, you get those oil prices down, you manipulate OPEC, you knocked the Russians out, and I'll come shake your hand.

The reality, too, is it's not to be missed here. The buy not beed did lay out this, you know, large, very broad initiative that the US has been involved in to bring allied groups together, you know, in the region as a deterrence to the Iranian UH activity throughout the world. And and and it is a legitimate argument to say that part of this is to go and unite that Now he's gonna need some kind of an announcement out of that. You know that that we've created. Many people

called it the the Middle East NATO. But getting all these countries, especially Saudi Arabian Israel, to talk to one another, uh is going to be a high priority. Uh And and it's not to be missed by anybody that that we're still not hearing any progress on the Iranian nuclear deal. Old time called j C p O A because I don't think the Israelis would show up for this meeting

if there was progress there. So uh, he might have a moment in time here to actually draw attention away from the oil discussion and in the Middle East a lot here. Why why not call this then the trip to Israel? Well, I think that he would probably like to call it the trip to Israel, except none of us are gonna let him. Uh And And the reality is that he's he's walking into not a totally secure situation. You've got politics in Israel. They have taken a turn

for the worst. They write smack dab in the middle of elections, you know, in a very complicated situation, Saudi Arabia about publicly opening new relations with Israel, even though they've been ongoing conversations with Israel on creating a deterrence to Iran for quite some time. So if he can get Saudi Arabia, if Biden can get Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords or create some kind of a diplomatic relations with Israel, you know, it could be an

interesting trip. Would that make it worthwhile? Jeannie? Would people maybe not complain as much about the ask for oil? Uh, They're going to complain either way, I think, you know, and you know, listen, this is this is the challenge. You know. It's one thing to be a candidate and talk about people as pariah's and having no socially redeeming value. The reality is, when you're president, you have to balance these values and these interests. And that's what he is

going to do. But he's walking a tight rope because of things that he said. The reality is Saudi Arabia is a critical is a critical partner for the United States, and the president has no choice but to suck it up and go over there there. That's what he's doing. We know he doesn't want to, but the assessment is he has to get over there for Ron, for China, for all of these different reasons, for Israel that that

Rick just laid out. He's got to get over there, and he's doing it, but the optics are going to be very difficult for them to handle. Does that op ed uh, influence anyone? Rick? The President has started doing this more often when things get difficult. It's it tends to a big speech or a trip will be preceded by an op ed in what the Wall Street Journal of the New York Times based on what we've seen, it's the Times this time around. People don't read newspapers anymore.

Is it is this a letter to Washington? Who's the audience? Well, we're talking about it. We are, but we're weird. We're weird,

and uh, we're nerds. But the reality is that it is a way to get your message out without the without the filter of the media, and the media is gonna start and stop every conversation about Saudi Arabia, about Kashogi and and and this was a way of actually doing something in the media that he didn't have to get framed that way, and he was able to get some of that discussion about security deterrence in the region into an article. Um, how does he handle the situation?

He said, He's going to bring it up how do you prove that you brought it up when nobody was in the room. Basically, you gotta bring it up and and then you gotta have both members walk out and give a readout where it was discussed. You can't have one party that said it wasn't talked about and another party said it was. MBS is not going to say that though as a genie, No, but you know this is Joe Biden. Didn't he look at Puttin in the face and call him a killer? So you know he's

He's done this before and now you agree. I think he has to do it again. And I'm gonna wear my nerd hat with pride. I did read the op ed. Thank you Joe Matthews. Of course you look fantastic with that hat as well. Um, I don't know where where this is going to end up here, Rick, It's it's going to take him a couple of days to get to Jetta, right, He's going to be a couple of days in Israel and then it's down to Saudi Arabia. There's gonna be a lot of media waiting for him.

To your point, though this is a very carefully choreographed event, will there be much speech offinds he needs to be talking on this trip, you know, I think he'll he'll frame the trip and and talk about what success is uh. And then and then ideally is pre baked and and and everybody sort of plays their role in making whatever public statements they can to reinforce that. Look, the region wants us there for security to Terrence, it really needs it. We need to be there to be a factor in

the region. We cannot seed the Middle East to China, and Saudi Arabia is the cog in the wheel. And so hopefully this is all orchestrated diplomatic diplomatic ways should prevail. It's gonna be delicate staging, Genie. No bicycles, no bike riding on this trip, right, that's right, but lots of not so nerd hats Jeff. Fair enough, all right, So this is where we pick it up tomorrow with Rick and Genie our signature panel on the Fastest Hour in Politics.

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