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As we get started here with the Thursday edition of Bloomberg Sound On, I'm Joe Matthew back.
In Washington, d C. At least for a moment.
We're New Hampshire bound this weekend, and for good reason, as we had for the first in the nation primary, and we'll bring you special coverage from the Granite State.
Real doubts today about.
The so called momentum behind Nikki Haley that we were talking about just a week ago. Quite a bit has changed since the Iowa caucuses. In a new poll by Saint Ansel kind of says it all finding as I read in the headline, Trump now enjoys majority support within likely New Hampshire Republican presidential primary voters.
We saw a.
Blowout win, of course in Iowa, and there are questions about what this might look like. Remembering again, it was just a week ago people were talking about a potential win for Nicki Haley, now governor christanninhu is talking about a strong second and that's where we begin our conversation today before we turn to our panel, and I'm looking forward to having Kristin Han on board with us.
Genie is off today and we'll be back tomorrow.
Chris Galdari one of the political voices we turned to in New Hampshire, a political scientist and professor at Saint Anselm College, which again cranked out this poll.
It's great to see you, Chris.
Were almost there, and I wonder your thoughts on what we're seeing today because your poll importantly reflects the departure of Chris Christie. And it looks like those votes, at least a majority of them did go to Nicky Haley, but not enough to make a difference.
That's right, and I think, you know, I think the Iowa result took some of the wind out of Haley's sales. You know, her campaign had been talking about potential second place finish, DeSantis being in a distant third, and instead that's not what happened. Trump won by a huge margin in Iowa, but Desanta's finished ahead of Haley, and I really struggled, I think, to uh find her footing after that. You know, she talked about it being a two person race.
But you know DeSantis, you know he's still in this, but he is down in South Carolina and talking about Super Tuesday. I just think, you know, this poll suggests that you know, Haley might have you know, might have hit her ceiling and maxed out her support that's out there.
It's an interesting scenarios that kind of peak early in New Hampshire since it's so early in the process, but so people know what we're talking about here. Donald Trump at fifty two percent. That's up seven points since last week, up seven. Also up seven is Nikki Haley, and that would reflect what we saw with the Christie votes moving around. I think you might agree that's thirty eight percent, So
fifty two thirty eight, that's a big spread here. Chris, what did you think yesterday when you heard Chris Sanunu talk about a strong second, because we've got to be honest, they were talking about winning this.
Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, unless it's a strong second, like you know, remember the twenty twelve Iowa caucuses where there was like seven votes between Romney and Santorum, I think anything short of that is going to be a really significant blow to the Haley campaign to go from talking about winning to talking about a strong second.
I mean, you don't want to be the candidate who's talking about a moral victory or placing a really really robust, bust, strong second, because you know, winning's the name of the game, and you know, in this sort of sequential primary system, you know there is not another state in the Union that is tailor made for Haley to do well as New Hampshire. I mean, if she can't do it here, you know, I struggle looking at the rest of the map to see other states where she's going to pull off an upset well.
And a lot of folks are saying, even if she won New Hampshire, that there might not be a path here. And I realized a lot of things can change overnight when you win New Hampshire, Chris By talking about moral victories, I'd love to know what it felt like or what grown you might have heard of New Hampshire. When Nicky Haley and Ronda sam We're both on stage in Iowa, DeSantis saying we got our ticket punched in Iowa even
though it was a distant second. And Nikki Haley, who came in third, says, now, two person race because she won one of ninety nine counties. That's not exactly Yeah, the momentum you need to fly into New Hampshire.
Yeah, that's exactly right.
I mean, I think I think there was a lot of willful self delusion going on on those stages on Monday night. You know, DeSantis had the endorsement of the governor, he had the endorsement of Bob vander Platz, an extremely influential evangelical conservative leader, and that got him to twenty one percent. Haley had been talking about coming on strong and surging into second place and giving Trump a scare and knocking Dessantis out of the race, and instead she
finished behind DeSantis. You know, it is just, you know, really tough to look at that, and you know, look, you say what you have to say to get through the disappointing election result. I remember remember Joe Lieberman coming in fifth and saying it was a three way tie for third. And if you're really old, you remember Mike Dukaka saying he won a bronze medal in Iowa in nineteen eighty eight.
Remember that.
But yeah, it's just, you know, look, I mean it's winning is better than losing. Sure, sometimes a strong second can help when you've got when you've got a close race, when you've got you know, a delegate hunt going on, like you know, Clinton Obama in two thousand and eight.
But this isn't that.
This is a dominant front runner who won a big victory in Iowa and seems on track for a similarly sized victory in a state where you know, it's the best case for somebody else to win, and yet Trump seems to have been doing quite nicely here.
Well, we're getting this straight deal from New Hampshire today with Chris Calderi at Saint Anselm College speaking of willful self delusion. I don't know if he just came up with that on the spot, but that was pretty good. Your governor, Chris san Nunu might have something very much in common with the governor of Iowa, Kim Reynolds. They both went out on the line and endorsed somebody. It looks like who's not gonna win.
Isn't that something?
Yeah?
It is, it is.
And you know, Christian hu knew he thought about running for president himself in this cycle and decided against it, and then he spent a lot of the last year sort of courting and boosting all of the other Republican candidates who weren't Trump. He's talked about the need for a non Trump alternative, and basically he was you know, if you know, if you were a Republican running for president, he would show up at your events to to boost
your profile here and ultimately settled on endorsing Haley. That said, he's also said, well, of course, if Trump's the nominee, I'll vote for him, which I think also sort of stepped down the Hailey campaign's message, which is that Republicans need somebody who's not Trump. You know, she's being very gentle in her criticism. It mainly comes down to electability, but she's you know, made the argument, Look, Donald Trump is not popular with the country at large. Republicans, you
might love him, but everybody else does not. So go with go with a fresh face, go with somebody younger, go with somebody without the baggage. So I think for Sonunu to say, on the one hand, we have to have Haley as our nominee, and on the other to say, but if it's Trump, of course I'll vote for him. Over Biden is just you know, just you know, you're you're you're stepping on your own message.
There, not that that is unusual here. We haven't really mentioned Ronda Santis because you know he's unchanged. Isn't that fascinating? In your poll? Haley and Trump are each up seven still with a wide gap, But Ronda Santis is stuck in the mud.
And it's interesting.
He's moving his staff out of New Hampshire now to South Carolina and it's going to be spending half the time between now in your primary and either Florida or South Carolina.
So is this over?
I you know, I never want to say it's over before voting happens. You know, events can take place, you know, you know, media could hit somebody's campaign bus or something. But you know DeSantis, you know, Uh, he's in a really tough spot of having been a candidate who came on very strong, had lots of lots of support, had tons of money, uh, and it just all evaporated. It just wasn't enough for him. He staked everything on Iowa.
That didn't happen if he spent a year in Iowa, had the support of the governor and so on and couldn't get better than twenty one percent. I don't know how he's going to improve on that in someplace like South Carolina, where he's barely set foot in the last year.
Uh.
And then once you get to Super Tuesday, I mean, what what what is the plan there? I just you know, I just don't see what it is.
Anybody care they canceled the debate after because I.
Personally, like, I mean, I'm taking it personally. It's it's like they canceled the prom or something thing. But you know it it I mean, it's a huge event. It was a blow to our college that was going to host it. It's an opportunity to put you know, our our students, our our staff, our campus on the national map.
You know, I don't think anybody's like taking it personally personally, but I think I think it was a blow to those of us in New Hampshire whose bread and butter is the presidential primary.
I'm glad we finally got it from somebody in New Hampshire. When does the carnival begin?
I know Donald Trump's doing the rally and I remember, by god, we've seen this before. The traveling road show that follows him will occupy downtown Manchester and Elm Street. You'll think, you know, you're tailgating before this thing. When does it all begin.
I think his Manchester rally is on Sunday afternoon this year. Last year, I think it was the day before the primary, and I think I think we actually yes on TV that day, so I got to make my way through that to get to the studio. So that was a little Harriet. But yeah, he's doing that.
He is.
He's doing an event here and conquered on Friday night. And you know what's remarkable about Markable about this is he has not done a ton of in person campaigning here. He's put together a pretty professional campaign organization, but has not done a lot of in person stuff. And I think he's just really ramping it up. It's really clear that his campaign thinks they can put this away, and so they're they're pulling out all the stuff. In the contrast,
Haley's sort of campaigning in second gear. It's just sort of, oh yeah, she did a couple of events, didn't take any questions, didn't talk to many voters, and it's just, you know, just just kind of mystifying from here.
Strange take is does Donald Trump ever spend the night or does he fly home every time he speaks in New Hampshire.
I think he flies home. And and of course this week he's dividing his time between the campaign trail and the courtroom, so that that just adds an extra wrinkle to his appearances. That's probably why the rallies.
I'll meet you Monday. Yes, of course, I'm looking forward to seeing you. Chris.
We'll be talking on the ground in Manchester starting next week. I'm sorry about the debate now, I feel sad about it.
It's okay.
He's at st Anselm College. I want to meet some of your students while we're there. Chris Calderry in New Hampshire with us here to get things rolling on Bloomberg sound on b Welser. As we assembled our panel, Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributor, Republican strategist today is joined by Kristin Han, Democratic analyst Rock Solutions.
It's great to have both of you here.
Is Joe Biden excited looking at this, He said he wanted to run against Donald Trump, right, I mean.
I think there it's gonna be tough. I mean, like Donald Trump. We're having lots of conversations about Nikki Helely and Rohndes Saint said this is gonna be over soon. But I don't think anybody is saying that. You know, nobody on the president scene thinks this is going to be a landside and we're going to have to work hard to mind people who Joe Biden is is.
I'm good to go running the right strategy going into New Hampshire.
Rick.
You know, look, I thought his I thought Chris's point about needing a meteor to even up this score a little bit was probably a good idea. I needed that media in a lot of campaigns I ran. But yeah, no, she should be going in overdrive. Forget this second drive. I mean she should be all out there. I mean, this is what the New hampshirets love, they love, you know, getting into those town halls and answering the questions and doing six of them in one day, plowing through the snow.
I'm baffled myself by the second gear.
So what's the job for her then this weekend? I mean, I suppose there's some time. Do you bring in the surrogates? Does she have an army like that to put some work in New Hampshire.
You know, she's got the governor, and the governor is wildly popular and very active on his own, right. I mean, that's that's her secret weapon. But she has to prove herself to the New Hampshire voters. They don't take surrogates. You know, they want you.
They want you, and they want to shake your hand more than once. Kristin, Was that a bad move for her to cancel on that debate?
I mean, I don't see it made sense. I think because you know, she's she tried to spin her you know, third place finished in Iowa as a this is now a two person debate, and if it's a two persons between her and Trump and she does that, you know, it just kind of looks a little silly. So I think it probably was you know, her, you know, thinking on this, but it's it's silly to have these debates without Donald Trump in the room anymore too. So well, right, I don't.
So you understand the logic, but maybe it wasn't the best. Look, I don't know. We'll figure that out. And want to get into this poll with Rick and Kristen coming up. The poll from Saint Anselme fascinating numbers here. We've got two great panelists with us, and we're going to spend some time on the pole next also with an eye on Washington. Are we shutting down on Friday? I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
A strong second is the new pitch from the ever popular governor of New Hampshire who went out on a limb to endorse Nicki Haley to try to make a difference. May have even convinced Chris Christy to get out of the race. That would be Chris Sanunu until I always talking about Nicki Haley winning this thing, and that is kind of what has changed here as we look at new polling from st Ansem College. We're just talking about that with Chris Calderia. We want to put it to
the panel. A great combination today. Rick Davis is back from Iowa with us here Bloomberg Politics contributor Republican strategists, along with Democratic analyst Kristin Hahn, partner at Rock Solutions. Great to have you both here. Rick, your impressions on the poll. We've talked a lot about momentum. We thought it was going to be Nicki Haley these moments, and
it appears to be Donald Trump's right now. He's up seven points now and just since last week, fifty two percent likely Republican primary voters.
And while Nicki Haley.
Scooped up all of Chris Christie's people, or at least a majority of them, it was far from enough to make a difference. Is a strong second the way we should look at this.
Yeah, well it certainly looks like where we are today, and of course these polls are just a snapshot in time, right. I Mean, the question was could Nicky Haley's momentum that she clearly had going into Iowa continue coming out of Iowa? And would Donald Trump get a bump if he, you know, surpassed anybody's expectations, which I think is when in Iowa did so. What we're seeing in both this poll and the Globe Pole yesterday, very consistent, and both of them
have Donald Trump over fifty percent. Both of them indicated a bounce coming.
Out of Iowa.
And even though you're right, I think that Nikki Haley has benefited from Chris Christy getting out of the race, it hasn't seemingly gone much beyond that. And so she's you know, in a trading range between the middle to high thirties, not enough to get you competitive against the present to win. And I'm sure that's one of the reasons why we're starting to hear from her folks internally, like Chris Sanunu that you know, setting expectations for a
close second would be okay. New Hampshire is a funny place and it surprises you many times. There are a lot of pollsters who've lost their reputation for being accurate by going and pulling in New Hampshire. So I don't think you want to go to the bank with these numbers. And yet I think without a thing like a debate or you know, any major changes happening between now and Tuesday, you know, it seems to be on this trajectory.
See we go again with the debate.
She could have had a viral moment tonight, I still say, Kristin, how much stock are you putting in these numbers? I'd like to know how you're reading this poll, because there's some interesting stuff here with sixty percent of respondents that say they changed who they would support based on candidates suspending their campaigns. It's not just Chris Christy, but I suspect the theake Ramaswami.
I won't mention Asa Hutchinson. Are turning to Nikki Haley?
Could we see a light bump here a late search for her?
Potentially New Hampshire is an interesting place. So you know, it's really that's why it's so hard. This is why we talk about it so much every time every cycle, because it's really hard to figure out what these voters are going to do. When you have such a high percentage of voters who identify as independence, they can go in and do whatever they want.
Right.
So, and what's interesting we go back to the debate. If she's not going to debate and spend time, you know, prepping for that, then why isn't she running around that state going from diner to diner, an event to an event. You know, I mean, if she's putting so much stake in this, you know, it baffles the mind.
And then even.
Looking forward past New Hampshire to South Carolina, I mean we're all thinking that. I mean, all signs point that she's going to get troused in her own state by Donald Trump. It just I don't know. I mean, even if she does surge in New Hampshire, it doesn't mean that she's got, you know, the resources or has put in the work to do what she needs to do. You know, come South Carolina Super Tuesday. You know all those things.
Rick, I want to hear from you on this decision by Ronda Santis to start moving people out of New Hampshire. Most most of the staff is redeployed to South Carolina, almost closing the doors on the state here. And he's going to be sharing time between Florida and South Carolina while Nikki Haley's running around New Hampshire. You've been in campaigns that have made late decisions, changes in strategy in the flow here.
What does this mean?
Yeah, I think it's just a practical political consideration. First of all, they're doing no good sitting in Iowa, and if you like them, keep them. I moved all of our Iowa team to Florida when I was running the McCain campaign in two thousand and eight, because we we had a set group already in place in New Hampshire obviously, and we had a pretty good team, you know, with people like Mark Sandford and Lindsay Graham in South Carolina yep.
And we were naked in Florida. So I was like, I got to use the resources I got, put people in cars and tell them to drive.
They were not disappointed to leave.
I was cold Florida's warmth, so I didn't have to pay anything extra for that.
Have you thought out, by the way, people have no idea how difficult it was for people to get out of Des Moines. I mean, you know, the airplanes weren't working basically because it was so cold. Nothing was working. Rick, You're home safe, right.
Well.
I think that the the Santus campaign ought to hope that they actually a arrive in South Carolina by primary day as quickly as we were able to get out of there, and so yeah, there's been a lag effect. But look, I mean the real question there is what in the world does he think he's going to do in South Carolina? Now I move my people a practical consideration, he's going to spend time there.
Okay, I get it.
He's at you know, six percent in New Hampshire. He's not going to be competitive, but he's like at two percent in South Carolina. Like, that's a pretty good leap of faith to go there and look people in the eye, voters and say, hey, I can win this thing, especially when all the elected officials are for somebody else. I mean, I got to tell you, I think that he is trying to pretend that he doesn't see the future, because the future is too bleak to actually see.
Ronda Santis is unchanged at six percent in this pool. Well, the two other candidates each gained seven points here, Kristen is does this end in South Carolina?
No? I mean I think so people saw who ronescientasys And I always said, like, you know, you can listen to people these candidates like policy priorities, but if you don't like them, you know, people vote with how they feel and how they feel about the character of the person and who the person is. And he showed himself over and over again, you know in Iowa, the way he would react to the voters, the way he'd react to the press, you know, I just don't see how
there's a path forward for him. He's just not likable. And that sounds simple, but it can be as easy as that.
It's interesting to me when we consider rick the exceptions that surround Donald Trump, things that other candidates would have to do to be taken seriously. The fact that he's never spent the night there and he's going to do
a couple more rallies in the next few days. Is Chris call Derry mentioned earlier this hour, He's got a matinee on Sunday, he's got something going on Friday, and conquered, he drives all the way back to me, flies all the way back to New York on that jet just so he can sleep in his own bed to go back the next morning. Could any other candidate get away with that?
No, and no other candidate would want to get away with that. I mean, frankly, don't you want a good night's sleep and wake up where you're going to have your next event the next day and not spend all that money flying around? But he did this in twenty sixteen, and he did it in twenty twenty, so it's a learned behavior. He doesn't like to sleep outside his own bedroom.
If I were his campaign manager, I think I'd be pulling my hair out because it just makes absolutely no sense other than your own personal interests.
You know, Christen.
It reinforces this idea that we've never seen two incumbents, if you will, running in the same race, because that might be normal for a president. Right, He's going to take Air Force one back if Joe Biden's doing an event somewhere, but that's going to be both of them. Just to consider the cost of securing both of these exercises and transporting these massive groups of people for the general election.
He doesn't care. I mean, he just you know, I mean, he's not doing this because he wants to connect with anybody. And also, I mean I agree, like if I were his you know, campaign staff, I'd be pulling my hair out. But he also won Iowa and a landslide, and like didn't have to do much me because in court more than he was doing events in Iowa. So I mean, he just defies all, you know, all there are no rules when it comes to him.
I guess maybe he has no choice on some days, guys, because he always has to go back to court. Somewhere the next morning, and that's going to be the narrative for the next year. A great conversation with Rick and Christner. We're going to turn to Capitol Hill in the White House next after the big meeting yesterday. Two big questions, are we going to avoid a government shutdown on Friday? And was progress actually made on a potential border deal.
You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern.
On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and Park Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcast.
Welcome to our two Bloomberg sound On Live from Washington.
Kayley.
I was in New York yesterday, which was part of my John Candy trip home and planes, trains and automobiles, which they became Escape from.
New York yes and I was in the same.
Room I did succeed. I got back at some point last night. I was in the same room as Charlie Pellett. He almost poked me when he was finishing his newscast, and it was great to see everybody up there, including Tim and Carroll, who were going to start seeing a
little bit more often and talking with on Monday. We've got actually pretty big news because when we come back on Monday, this program will start at noon, it's going to be twelve to two Washington time, and we've got some cool surprises in store for you, and amazingly, we'll try to actually do all of that from New Hampshire because.
That's where we'll be.
That's where that's where we'll be.
Where we are in sports here in Washington is another question, because it's looking like we will avoid a government shutdown. Yes, normally we've had countdown clocks on cable news and people would be holding news conferences yelling and blaming each other.
But everyone's kind of quiet about this. We talked about it a little bit yesterday.
They're sliding this thing through today so they can get out of town now before a snowstorm.
I guess third time's a charm, Joe. There was a lot of drama to avoid that first potential shutdown.
On September three.
Behavior man, a lot of drama November seventeenth, and now maybe no drama here in January. The first deadline in January, mind, you were going to do this two step thing yet again with this current stop gap measure.
But this would replace that, right, So the February date now it's March first, in March eighth if they passed this, so we don't have to freak out in February.
But that's coming, by the way, two days.
That'll be two days or the same week as the State of the Union, right the ends, that'd be the night after.
Oh my god, I don't know how we're going to do all that.
Yeah, Super Tuesday government shut down, State of the Union all in the same week.
And I'm also pretty sure it's March where President Biden is supposed to deliver his budget for the next fiscal year, and we'll just be sorting out the budget for the fiscal year. We've already been in for almost six months at that point.
I'm going to call the boss and get that week off. I think they'll say yes, Mike Dorning is going to come in to talk to us here, because Mike's going to be working overtime that week, of course. Bloomberg Politics reporter, Hey, Mike, it's great to see you. I'm wondering your thoughts here. Since we're not going to shut down, are we going to get something done on the border?
Well, that's what we're hoping that's what Senator Schumer keeps holding out optimism that they'll try to work out something soon. And Joe Biden today was asked about it, and he
also was saying that he was hopeful on that. But then you have Donald Trump, who is, you know, the front runner for the Republican nomination, his position as the leading Republican just reaffirmed by the Iowa Caucuses, you know, throwing cold water on all of this and saying, hey, Republicans in Congress shouldn't agree to this unless they get absolutely everything they want.
Yeah, this is a question, Mike, We've been bringing up frequently on this program to what extent the former president is actually pulling the strings of congressional leadership, especially when the House Speaker, Mike Johnson admitted in an interview last night that he talks to Trump frequently about the border.
Yeah. No, and he says he's talking with Trump frequently about a variety of issues. And remember, he was a very loyal Trump follower. He was one of the people who came up with the legal strategy to try to overturn the election. So he's very close with Trump, and a lot of the House Republicans are very closely tied to him that said it in the past. Johnson has gone along as he just did again with keeping the
government open and avoiding a shutdown. You have people like Texas Governor Habit saying, hey, let's do something on the border instead of keeping this open as an issue. So there is some pressure on Republicans to actually do something and not just have a pretend fite full year long for the election campaign. And same thing on the Democratic side. It's not just that the Republicans are holding hostage the Ukraine aid. President Biden has Democratic mayors who are saying,
you know, something needs to be done here. And if you look at the public polling, there are a lot of Americans, even Democrats, who want something done on the border. So there's still a reasonable prospect despite the potential cold water Trump is throwing on things.
Boy well, I don't know if then we should be encouraged that Speaker Mike Johnson has sort of brushed off this request from Freedom Calock is to tie border to the stopgap that would keep the government open on Friday, and that would guarantee I suspect a shut down for some period of time if they did that, is he capable of rebuffing Donald Trump if it means doing something for the good of the Congress or the country.
Here, Mike, I think he's capable of rebuffing Donald Trump as long as it's kind of a low key effort by Trump, like some posts on truth social or something like that and Trump while Trump is focusing on other things. But if Trump makes this something that is front and center and is issuing repeated demands, it'll be hard for
him to actually openly break with Trump. So as long as this is just something where Trump is throwing a little bit of cold water on things, I think he is capable of breaking and going his own way and trying to do something. He's clearly made the calculation that he does not want a government cutdown if he can avoid it. Well, he's also clearly made the calculation that he's much better off focusing on the border and immigration than anything else. And in fact, all year long we've
been hearing economies the number one issue. Well, in the entrance polls for the Iowa caucuses, you saw that immigration is now even a bigger issue for Republicans than the common Yeah.
That's a really good point, Mike Dorning Bloomberg, Congressional Deputy editor. Thank you so much for joining us and right on que while we've been talking a lot about the House, the Senate now has the votes to pass that stop gap funding bill, and then, of course we expect it. We'll go right to the House, which will vote on it today and it's a suspension of the rules, so you need two thirds of the members of that chamber to pass this.
That's actually a really good point.
So I won't I won't drive by. I'll go down the other side of the river afterwork tonight. It will not go by the airport, is what you're saying, because, yeah, the vast exodus.
The jet themes will be got it in the air well. Joining us now for more on this before we get to the jet fumes is Bill hoglint He is the senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center. Bill, always a great to have you on the show. It looks like we're going to get another cr the third we've seen in what less than six months. Are you confident this will be the last?
No, I'm not confident this will be the last. Thank you for having me. But as you say, the Senate literally as we speak has just passed sixty four votes, so they will send the Continuing Resolution on the Teering System March one and March eight over to the House this evening, and as you've already recorded in concern about it possible snowstorm tomorrow. It's interesting how weather it impacts policy.
The Senate or the House will probably take it up early this evening and try to pass it under the suspension this evening. But this is not the last we've seen of this, so we've still got a ways to go. And getting a Talking.
About your long CR bill, well, I just wonder what the options are, because I can't imagine the world which we figure out how to fund the government for real.
Yeah, the problem with the long term CR is under the Fiscal Response Ability Act, it triggers some sequesters, and the defense people will not like these questions that would be coming along with a full year CR. But quite quite frankly of them as you are. In some ways, I'm beginning to think, hey, we're six months or half of the way through the fiscal year. By March, let's just admit that we've were finished with fiscal year twenty four. President will submit his budget for the next fiscal year.
Right around then, as you say around State of the Union address, let's admit that we've finished up fiscal twenty four and move on to twenty five.
But then the one percent cuts kick in, right So I totally get what you're saying, Bill, Why even bother if you're only talking a few months by the time you actually sort it out, just start fresh in the new fiscal year. But isn't that problematic?
I think it's problematic because people do not want to have those cuts kick in. And yes, I think the Senate's further along than the House obviously. But one of the big hang ups that I now see coming, and this is maybe it's in the weeds a little bit.
In the letter that the news Speaker put out on when the agreement was reached basically about twelve days ago to set the top line appropriations for twenty four, he had one particular piece of language in a letter to his college which he said, and they will fight to include important policy writers in the House bills. At the same time, mister Schumer put out a statement saying, we
will not accept any poison pills. We're going to see a fight over writers in these appropriation bills that could potentially put us into the position which I said, maybe another continuing resolution or a CR for the end of the year.
Unbelievable. So we get this done.
Presumably there's something we haven't addressed yet, and that's a potential deal on the border. We're spending a lot of plates right now for a Congress that can't seem to get out of bed in the morning here bill. But that meeting at the White House appeared to be at least not depressing. They came out saying relatively nice things because Speaker Johnson is not going to only adhere to
HR two. At one point he said that was it the immigration bill that Republicans in the House already passed without a single Democrat.
You're a creature of the Senate.
How concerned is the House about getting jammed by what's going on next door? And will that deal broker dos presumably in the Senate even have a chance in the House.
Well, I am a creature of the Senate, and yes, there are times when the Senate takes action without the involvement of the House deliberations and on this particular set of discussions had been going on. The House has not been involved and something is important as the border that affects everybody. And I do think that this is an issue that's going to come even if the Senate could put together and get an agreement in sixty votes to
pass some immigration reform. Obviously, the Senate is working very hard to do and mister Schumer and mister Connor are on the same wavelength here. The House has not been involved, and the new Speaker is probably going to have a very difficult time of simply taking whatever it is that the Senate sends over. And is it fearful, quite frankly, of being jammed from that perspective, I am. I'm not a I don't follow the immigration issue as closely as
due on some of the fiscal issues. But I am very concerned that there are House members and you just had a discussion as it relates to the former president's involvement here, that maybe they want there not to be an agreement so that this becomes a political issue this fall for re election purposes.
I am.
While the Senate seems to be on board and there seems to be some nice happy talk coming out out of the out of the White House yesterday, I think we are still a long way from any kind of an agreement on border issues, particularly on the issue as it relates to uh parole, perrole and the powers given to the president on parole.
Well, Bill, we just have a few minutes left with you, but I'm glad you brought up the twenty twenty four election and its role in all of this. Considering that former President Trump posted on True Social I do not think we should do a border deal at all unless we get everything needed to shut down the invasion. I have no doubt our wonderful Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, will only make a deal that is perfect on the border. And Bill, we know that Johnson and Trump talk frequently.
How do you think about the former president in the scenario, I think.
The former president. I think Republicans broadly should think about this very carefully as to what whether or not any kind of a next Congress, if the next even if the even if the Senate switches and the House may not switch, this may be the best opportunity for any
kind of reform of the border in an interfuture. Because I had fear that a House made up of Democrats next year if they take over, which seems to be the prognosis right now, and even if the Senate was to become Republican, I do think that the opportunities for a border agreement is the best time is right now, as opposed to putting it off until next year. And by the way, that's too long anyway, we need to be dealing with this now.
Bill.
It's great to see you and appreciate the straight talk. Bill Hoagland at the Bipotters Policy Center from just next door here in Washington. We thank you for the insights as always, Kaylee, A lot of questions after a meeting that was supposed to bring answers.
Yeah, that's right. We know that Speaker Johnson coming out of that meeting said the border has to be the top priority. Maybe it's a priority for the Biden administration as well, but so is Ukraine. And therein lies the red Oh true.
Congressman Frenchhill's coming in next. We'll get this straight from a lawmaker who's in the middle of the action, the Republican from Arkansas. We'll be here next. On the fastest show in politics, This is Bloomberg.
If you're listening to the Bloomberg sound on podcast, catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
This is looking like a done deal, Kayley. The Senate's got the votes. Congressman french Hill is waiting right now for that bill to come across the Rotunda so they can vote on it in the House.
Then everybody goes home before the snow. Don't be done.
Well, we're not quite at the finish line, and a few members of the House we're trying to make some last minute changes in regard to attaching HR two or similar border security measures to this stop gap continuing resolution, and yet according to Speaker Johnson's office, that's a no go, no changes.
That's kind of a big deal.
I feel like you're going to look back at that as a moment when he said no to the Freedom Caucus and something actually got passed.
But it's not for me to make that judgment.
He's with us right now from the Rotunda and the Cannon House Office building, where all the big stuff happens. Congressman French Hill, the Republican from Arkansas.
Great to see you, sir. You got your snowboots on.
I'm ready. It's cold. It's colder in Arkansas than vis in the district Columbia. So we're trying to see if we can finish our work today.
Well, it looks like you got it right.
I mean, I'm expecting that this will arrive in the House and pass pretty easily based on what we're hearing.
How about you, I think so.
I think when you saw the cloture vote earlier in the week in the Senate, where overwhelmingly senators were ready to do this very short term extension to buy more time to get these bills written right, get the negotiations finished, and move the continuing resolution deadline from the nineteenth tomorrow
to March first and March eighth. I think it's just where we find ourselves in Congress after wasting so much time inefficiently last fall in things like fighting about a spending number that we've already agreed to and trying to throw our speaker out. So that's where we find ourselves.
When you talk about buying more time, more up time has been bought twice, a continuing resolution passed to the end of September, another in mid November. This will be the third. Are you confident that it will be the last?
Well, of course I can't say that.
I can't say it because people have squandered time so ineffectively over the past few months. We had the Speaker McCarthy effort to do this before the middle of November, before Thanksgiving, and instead of doing it, a small group of eight people threw the Speaker out of his job. And so then Chuck Schumer squandered the time between Thanksgiving and Christmas not continuing to move forward in the Senate on agreeing to the House spending levels or working on
this appropriate supplemental appropriation very effectively. So, look, this is where we find ourselves. I hope we can get this work done. I know we can. We should be able to do it because we've agreed to the spending levels and now each of those appropriations committee subcommittee chairman will work on the policy. And this is just what's important to Republicans. We got the spending level that we can
live with. Now we want to make sure that we get the policy changes that we want in each of those bills before March.
First, let's talk of a border deal emerging.
We saw the players at the White House yesterday, Congressman, the Big Four along with President Biden. There seemed to be some optimism coming out of that meeting. But I keep hearing that the House refuses to be jammed by the Senate and then it could be doa in your chamber.
What do you think, hey, Joe, such a good question. I think the meeting at the White House was good for about four months in a row. President Biden reiterated that he's happy to change policy at the border and happy to work with Republicans on solutions. He keeps saying that, but we don't get anything on paper and get that negotiated. We've got a leader on this project, a frustrating, a frustrating project.
James Langford, the Senator.
From Oklahoma, is prying to put together a policy that cuts off this flow by telling President Biden to make these policy changes on asylum and parole particularly, that could cut as much as seventy percent of the flow. That's the kind of policy change House Republicans are waiting to see in writing.
Well, you talk about getting things in writing, but the Senate seems more optimistic they're going to be able to do that soon. That was at least the message from Chuck Schumer yesterday. Once it is, and if the Senate were to pass this, what's its fate in the House. What is the House realistically going to be willing to vote for?
Well, look, here's what I think a majority of House members want is concrete policy changes by the Biden administration on their southwest border policy.
They could do.
Many of those by executive action, but they have not. So President Biden in the conversation of the White House, offered to do some things by executive action and agree to other.
Things in law with Congress. We needed to see that in writing lead in.
We need to see how many Republican Senators get behind that effort to support it in the Senate, and I think that will really set the tone when that bill attached to funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan comes back to the House.
We've got a couple of things, not just a government funding to deal with with the seasonal expirations here a congressman, we've talked about the renewal of PAISA, the warrantless spying program that is also up for renewal, and I'm wondering if that's going to get bogged down as well by the debates that are being had here.
Nothing seems to have an easy path.
Well, again, on the FAISO reform, Speaker Johnson has asked Chairman Mike Turner and Chairman Jim Jordan to put together where there's consensus on that. And let me remind you that the Senate Intelligence Committee and the House Intelligence Committee are fully on the same page for these reforms of the FBI reforms of PISA to protect Americans privacy but maintain our surveillance outside the US. Those reforms have by camera and bipartisan support. So Speaker Johnson has set a timeline.
For Chairman Turner and Chairman Jordan.
To reach that conclusion, and we need to pass that before April nineteenth.
Speaking of things that you'd like to see passed in the House, Congressmen, you of course sit on the Financial Services Committee. You chaired the Subcommittee on Digital Assets, and last year you had success in passing two bills out of that committee related to cryptocurrencies. My understanding, according to a few reports, Congressmen, as you're shopping around some changes to that legislation. Could you detail that for us?
Well, we had our what we call our Fit for Purpose for the twenty first Century Act that set up the regulatory framework that directs the SEC and the CFTC precisely what to do in the regulation and oversight for digital assets. This is good for innovators, good for American companies, good for consumers and investors.
We made all the changes that came out of our more last July.
We're now showing that to our colleagues on both sides of the aisle, and I think that bill is prepared to come to the floor when the Speaker and the Majority Leader are ready for it to be considered. The second bill that you reference, Kaylee, is the stable coin legislation. This is how to take a fiat currency like a dollar and have a dollar based stable coin to be used on a.
Blockchain as a payment.
That bill also we've worked with our Democratic colleagues, who has bipartisan support. We are trying to make final corrections to that to also get that to the floor, and we're just continuing those consultations. They've been constructive, they've been bipartisan. So I hope we finished that work soon and can get it also to the House floor, all.
Right, And one more regulatory matter to ask you about, as I know you've been vocal about this in past hearings, the capital requirements that BOSEL three end game reform for banking. There's been some noise around that coming from the Federal Reserve in recent days. Michelle Bowman talking about how it might need to be changed for Waller. Her colleague was as well, we're actually going to be speaking with Michael Sue,
the acting director of the OCC leader. Congressman, what would you like to tell him about how this regulation should change proposally.
This is the basle endgame that affects capital for large financial institutions. But when you affect large institutions, you affect all four thousand commercial banks in our country. It has to be pro American competitiveness, not put us at a disadvantage when.
We compete abroad.
And it has to make sure it doesn't dislocate important business and consumer lending.
Products in our country.
Those are the things I would urge the regulators to be very careful about. That's why you've heard concerns from Governor Bowman, Governor Waller, others. And this was the comment period week came to a conclusion this year this week, and I'm going through all those to see what the best parts of the rule making and what are the parts that need serious change. And I think my colleagues and I are all folks on that for the next few weeks. We want to make sure the FED has
the right capital structure for our institutions. But we don't want to make America less competitive, and we don't want to dislocate consumers and household and business borrowing needs. We need that in our economy for growth.
Right Congressman, I want you to know we were channeling you over the weekend. In Iowa. It was twenty degrees below zero. There was a drifting snow on the you saw.
I'm going to I can complain all day about it, and I'm going to stop down. But I remember the story that you told us about getting on the road. I think it was your lonely drive to Cedar Rapids. You almost didn't make it too, and we were thinking about, God, if french Hill made it, we can do it too.
Worse than that, it was des Moines to Sioux City over a So let me tell you it's cold, but it's the American tradition. I'm glad you now have those for making it. Congratulations.
I'm not even sure that's true, but I like the idea.
Congressman Frenchhill, we thank you as always say hi to your college legs. There and Cannon sounds like a busy day, Kaylie.
He knows because he's been there.
Yeah, experienced it before he.
Was in Congress.
He was working as a surrogate and an organizer in Iowa. He's been there from the grassroots or the snow.
I think our cold was colder than his cold, though it was. It was a record, a record, Congress. I know we were there when the record was set, Kaylee.
They could never take that. Thanks for listening to the sound on podcast.
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