You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
And welcome to Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Amy Morris in for Joe Matthew alongside Bloomberg Congressional reporter Billy House on this Friday afternoon. This hour on sound On, we're going to be talking with longtime Iowa political journalist Dave Price. He's going to bring us up to speed on the presidential candidates in Iowa this past week and what we've learned ahead of next week's debate, and Billy House is
with me. Billy, it's going to be interesting to see who besides Donald Trump may have picked up a little traction in Iowa.
That's right, and hey, maybe we'll learn even who's trying to gain more traction by raising his legal problems, including this week's big indictment in Fulton County, Georgia.
Right, we're going to continue to watch that that's bound to come up on the debate stage next week. We're also going to be talking all of this over with our political panel. Let's go now to Iowa, where I will find Bloomberg National politics reporter Stephanie Lie a big week on the campaign trail. Stephanie, it's only going to get more interesting heading into next week's Republican debate. Tell us what you are going to be watching for.
First, certainly, thank you so much for having me, and to start, you know, we are still tracking whether or not Donald Trump will attend the debate. According to sources that we've been talking to, he's been leaning against it, but might instead do an interview with Tucker Carlson, which in fact would be a snub to the RNC and
to Fox News, who is hosting the debate. But we are interested in what the other candidates are up to as well, so Destantus super Pac has released a memo earlier this month that was first reported by The New York Times regarding his debate strategy, and what we saw from that is that there's a growing interest.
Stephanie, this is Billy.
I'm sorry.
We just got breaking news that Donald Trump does plan to skip that first debate, So I just wanted to let you know about that. He's going to sit in and be with Tucker Carlson, the former.
Fox News host, Right right, definitely, And that's that's something that we've been tracking for a while and it's something that we will be watching closely. Yeah, I guess there's nothing much more to add on up on my end for that.
The govinor of Florida also Stephanie seeking to reshape his campaign. Has he been getting any traction there?
Yeah, I mean there's definitely been some interest on his team's end to kind of refocus his messaging on more kitchen table issues rather than trying to take on the front runner head on. And in fact, in some of these documents that were released by a super Packed, they seem to think that the strategy should be to avoid taking digs at Donald Trump and instead focused on the other candidates, such as the zak Ramaswami who's rising in the polls.
Yeah, Stephanie, who is taking former President Trump head on. And Trump is tracting a lot of crowds there. But what is he What do people there say he's actually done since twenty twenty to become president again?
Sure? Well, to start, you know, we've seen Chris Christy take a pretty strong stance against Trump earlier We noticed that he had mentioned that the Santus should you know, take active jobs at the front runner. And in terms of what voters are staying on the ground about what they think of Trump, many of them have told me that they valued his economic policy, his focus on national security, and I think that's a messaging that's really resonated with
them and something that their campaign has really focused on. Right.
Thank you so much, Stephanie for joining us. That's Bloomberg National politics reporter Stephanie Laie in Iowa bringing us up to speed on what she saw on the ground during this past week when all the candidates were and they're at the Iowa State Fair and making their way through the state, Let's turn out a long time Iowa political journalist Dave Price. Now Dave writes the Dave Price Perspective column on Substack. He's also been following everything that's been
going on with all of the press residential hopefuls in Iowa. Dave, great to have you. Did anybody get any buzz in Iowa besides Donald Trump?
Oh?
Perhaps in their own ways. I think the one on one conversations that the candidates, not Donald Trump because he chose not to do it, but the one on one time that these candidates had twelve of them with Governor Kim Reynolds surely could be beneficial for them. Vivik Ramaswami brought out a crowd, to Scott brought out a crowd, DeSantis brought out a crowd. Nikki Haley had some people there.
So those moments could do them some good. But clearly the whole experience with Trump coming and the people who gathered around to see them probably attracted a good share of the attention.
Hey are disability? Is are people satisfied with for instance, Tim Scott saying he wants to stay positive, he doesn't want to talk about other candidates, He wants to stay above the whatever phray there might be in terms of Trump and just speak to the issues. Is that satisfying people out there?
Good question? How about a yes and no. I think you can find two different camps on this because I think you have some people who like that positivity from Tim Scott and think that that could be a contrast to DeSantis or Trump as a way for him to
stand out. At the same time, they question, then why Scott is out there making almost some of the same arguments that Trump is about that there are two tiered system of justice and such, thinking that this could be an opportunity for Scott to really pivot away from Trump, and he has chosen not to do that. So I think you get two different camps there, and because of that, people have far different opinions about whether this is really a success full path that Scott is trying to lay out.
It seems like that would make it harder to determine if there really is anyone who may be turning into a challenge for Donald Trump, for.
Sure, and I think that's what has some people kind of scratching their heads about. You know, they get Chris Christie's play right, although he's not really competing in Iowa, and even Will Hurt, who's at the fair today, you can see that where they've decided, look, I'm going to lay out my ideas. I'm going to go hard against Trump. Here's where we go. But for many of the other ones,
they're choosing not to really do that. Now, maybe Mike Pence has dialed it up just a little bit as he started talking about January sixth, but Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, now Vivid Ramaswami has really been for the most part positive about Trump from the get go, So perhaps it's not as surprising with Tim, but Scott and haleyicular and then now we'll see what Pence does. That could be
a way to really start separating themselves. So I'm curious where they're where they are going to go from here to try to maybe point some differences out to get that separation. There should be if you're looking historically, if it's going to be Trump, and we'll see if DeSantis is going to be remain kind of the big player here,
but there should be another place here. This race should be big enough for three primary contenders, if you will, maybe four, But you know who would that three and four be?
Well, that's exactly what I was going to say. You can't say something like, oh, maybe three or four big players for the primary? Okay, who would you think?
Well, and you know, we have a lot of time here, and it would seem that if we go by history, we'll probably see rise and fall here perhaps of a couple. Ramaswami clearly has some attention and he gets people going here and apparently he can wrap because he did that on stage, right, But you know, will he have enough separation you know, where's the point of distinction between Ramaswami
and Trump. Clearly they're not clones by any means. But if these candidates are not really going to use these moments and all of these indictments to lay out their case why they should replace Trump as the nominee, then how do they really build this?
Hey, Dave Billy here, I'm kind of curious, just on the sidelines, what are state Democrats and other Democrats doing in terms of mischief or whatever?
Else?
Is the Republicans kind of tour the map there?
I don't know about mischief necessarily, but I think, you know, honestly, they're this is going to sound harsh, but they're trying to figure out how do they become relevant in all of this. Joe Biden is not a not a popular guy in this state. He frankly has never fared well in this state other than when he was Barack Obama's vice president. So he's not a popular guy. What is really going to change that At a time that Democrats have really plummeted in this state. I think Democrats are
trying to figure out where to pick their spots. You have a couple of the legislative leaders who are doing these kind of extended listening tours, if you will. Across the state House. Minority Leader Jennifer Confirst has really focused on that quite a bit as they try to rebuild in little pockets. But I think they know that this
is an uphill climb for a million reasons. But especially when you have so many Republican presidential candidates actively campaigning, how do state Democrats push back against that other than just essentially putting out carbon copy statements about such and such as a Trump clone or is too far right, etc. Etc. It's pretty hard for them to go out after each one individually.
And we are talking with Iowa political journalist Dave Price about all the campaigning that's been going on in Iowa, particularly among Republican presidential hopefuls in the past week or so. Dave, there's been this rift between Governor Kim Reynolds and Donald Trump. Does that make a difference in Iowa? Is Trump's support so intense that it doesn't really matter what would turn voters off on Trump in Iowa?
I am totally curious about this, and you know, I wish I knew what the answer is, And we're so many months out that It's hard to really know yet, but Kim Reynolds I think is the most popular Republican in the state of Iowa. And that's saying something. Chuck Grassley, the US Senator, has been in office in one way or the other since the nineteen fifties. But when you go to events, Kim Reynolds gets the loudest ovation, the
most sustained applause. And she used that at the fair, these one on one chats that she did with the candidate. So to have Donald Trump really unnecessarily poke at this relationship seems intriguing, maybe kind of bizarre, unforced and so. And also in this really didn't get a lot of headlines yet. But Governor Reynolds has talked about that she would remain neutral. However, in the past week she left open the chance that late in this process she could
endorse somebody. Doesn't mean she will, and she by no means said, hey, it's going to be somebody besides Donald Trump. So I don't want to oversell it here, but just the fact that she said that was interesting to me that it maybe meant that in the back of her mind she's thinking about some stuff.
Yeah, Hey, I.
Was out there one time when pat you can and refused to kiss babies, but he did kiss piglets. So I'm being facetious there. But which candidates actually seems to have a more human connectedness with the people one on one that you've seen? Actually, who's got that ability that may have surprised you or come out of nowhere?
Well, I mean, you know, the knock on DeSantis is that is not who he is. And we'll see if this works. But there's no question that DeSantis two point oh or three point h or whatever you want to argue here is they've tried to refocus some things. He did go out and do some of the traditional fair things. He was even out on the bumper cards with his kids and walking around with his very much a lot more focus on his wife and kids now on this as they tried to move out. It doesn't really seem
that the conversations with people. Sorry, my allergies are kicking in from the fair and all the corn here.
I can understand that, but.
You know, maybe that's just not what comes easiest to him. Ramaswami seems very easy, an easy conversationalist. Nikki Haley does, Tim Scott does. I walked around a while with Tim Scott and Senator Joni Ernst, and he seems very much at ease talking to people. And you know, this like it's an art and the people who have had success in this state can relate to people very quickly. Trump does it in his own way. And his fair visit wasn't like the other ones. He wasn't really working at.
He did his event, He had his entourage, They had a couple of speakers assembled around him and kind of personal anecdotes and why they think that he's would be good to reelect and such, and what he's done for the country and that kind of stuff. But it wasn't like the retail politicking that we're used to seeing at the fair, and it is it's it's a gift that people have. Terry brand instead, longtime governor here. That was something he can do. Kim Reynolds could do it, Chuck
Grassley could do it. Tom Harkin can do it, the longtime Democrat. So it's just a thing you can't fake. You're either good at walking up to people and it looks like you like people, you know, like Bill Clinton was so good at that, seeing him walking around here. Some people are just really good and some people aren't. Perhaps Hillary Clinton wasn't as good as Barack Obama and
maybe that made a difference in people's perceptions of them. No, those moments, I think you really learn a lot from them.
We only have about twenty seconds here, and I need to ask you this because you mentioned being at the fair all this past week. Your favorite food go.
Oh Man, favorites are tough, but they have this awesome bacon brisket, mac and cheese.
Oh stop, that's.
Just an amazing combination.
Of we're calling it, Dave, just cut it out. Dave Price, longtime Iowa political journalist, author of the Dave Price Perspective column on Substack, Thank you so much for your time.
You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
And you're listening to sound don i Abe Morris in for Joe Matthew alongside Bloomberg Congressional reporter Billy House. Want to turn now to our political panel with Bloomberg Politics contributor Jeanie she and Zano and Lester Munson, principle at bg R Government Affairs. Thanks both of you for joining us today. There's a two day form going on in Atlanta today and tomorrow, the last big showcase event before next week's Republican presidential debate. And Lester, let's start with you.
What are you going to be looking for coming out of this forum, considering if I may sidebar and Trump or former President Trump wasn't even invited to this.
Yeah, and we still don't know if he's going to be in the debate next week either. And I think it's important for folks to remember this is still wide open. People aren't actually going to be voting in any kind of nomination process yet on the Republican side for five months,
so there's a long way to go here. Yes, the former president is in the lead, and there's a little bit of movement with respect to Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswami and some of these other candidates, but it's still a wide open opportunity for one of these candidates to distinguish themselves become the front runner or near front runner and maybe make a real challenge against former President Trump.
So I think it's I think the most important thing going into these events in the next few days is to look for people who are going to take advantage of the opportunity. This is entrepreneurial, forward leaning. Somebody's willing to take some risks, probably going to pay off for him.
Lester, this is Billy. We just we got late breaking news a little while ago that he will not that Trump will not participate in the Trump He'll do an interview with instead at the time. But let me ask you this. You say, who will seize this opportunity? What does that mean? Does that mean attacking Trump? Or does that mean, as Tim Scott has been doing, sticking to the positive or is there some kind of middle ground that might be successful for someone.
Well, I think I think there's a huge opportunity for someone who will attack the former president in this sense, call him out on the deceptions about the twenty twenty election. Call, you know, be a truth teller about the election. The reason Donald Trump is not a good candidate for twenty four the argument should be, is that he lost in twenty twenty this is he's a proven losing candidate, and the there's a huge opportunity for a Republican to point that out. It's clear to Scott won't do it, at
least thus far. Ron DeSantis has campaigned his pack put memos on the internet inexplicably to that effect. So there's an opportunity for one of these other candidates to say it's time we face reality and we need to nominate someone who can win. I think that kind of risk taking will be rewarded. The big opportunity there, Genie.
Let me shift to you for a second. Miami's mayor Francis Suarez has says he's qualified for his first GOP debate, But now we're getting word from the RNZ that they can't confirm that. And Billy and I were talking about this off air, and it seems like not a terribly hard thing to confirm. But maybe there are some other things in motion here that we wouldn't be privy to. Why wouldn't the RNC be able to confirm something like that.
You know, it may be a matter of time. We do know he has met the donor threshold. I believe the sticking point is on the polling and so you know, the requirements are pretty stringent, and they have stuck to that. He is missing or was missing at last check before he said he made it two poles. He had to reach one percent in one national poll and one Iowa pole or an additional national poll and one pole that's not Iowa. So it's a little bit confusing, and they
may just still be going through that. But by you know, by what we're seeing, Suarez would be sort of the last person who we don't know of yet who might make it or might not. Everybody else we know of who's met the polling and donor and sign the pledge DeSantis, Ramaswami, Haley, Scott Bergham. Of course, Trump, Pence, and Christy all meet
the donor poles. They hadn't signed the pledge as of this morning, although Christy said it's just a matter of time, and I'm assuming that's true for Pence, and obviously now that Trump is out, he won't be signing that pledge. Everybody else heard Hutchinson, they are all out for not making either the polling or the donor threshold or signing the pledge.
Gennie, how strange and how weird is it that there will be also some eighteen people along with Trump, turning themselves into the Fulton County Sheriff's office during the week and including probably Wednesday as these other Republicans try to hold a debate.
Oh, you know, strange? Is you know I think about it when I teach young people, and I think, do they think this is the way that our politics always are? Is this how they think that as they get older, that this is how life is going to be politically? Because this is so bizarre, and you know, just thinking about this Eric Erickson gathering that's taking place today that you were just talking with Lester about that Trump's not attending.
It is literally ten miles from the jail where he is going to be surrendering by next riding, and we assume he will do it earlier. And so between that and the split screen of him with an interview with Tucker Carlson Fox News, the RNC Ronal McDaniel has got to be pulling her hair out at this point that this is where they are and they yes. You couple that with eighteen other people who will be turning themselves in by next Friday at noon, it's stunning.
Now, we are hearing from our political panel with Bloomberg Politics contributor Genie Cienzano and Lester Munson, principal at BGR Government Affairs. Lester, this next question is for you because you said something that really stuck with me. You were talking about a candidate being brave, and who's going to be brave and who's going to stand up and who's going to take that pledge or take that stand against Donald Trump. There's a crowded stage that's going to be
there on Wednesday. Donald Trump's going to skip it. So would that speak to the hold that Donald Trump still has on the Republican Party or does it illustrate how the party is trying to wriggle out of that hold because so many people will be there.
Well, I think the hold that Donald Trump has on the party is relayed as directly related to his ability to win elections. The reason the Republican Party went more populist in twenty sixteen is because it had failed to win the two previous national elections in in two thousand and eight and twenty twelve.
But he's won one. He's won one election.
That's right, and but the whole purpose of his effort to discredit the twenty twenty election is to make sure no one calls him a loser. But he lost. He lost the election.
It is the.
Biggest strike against him for Republicans who are looking to win the White House. They don't want to nominate someone who's going to lose right now. Unless something changes, Donald Trump will lose again if he's the nominee. He already lost to Joe Biden once. Joe Biden was not a terrific candidate frankly, at least not in my view. So the best case an alternative to Donald Trump should be making is I can win. I will win in twenty twenty four. That's why you should take my candidacy seriously.
I will govern in a way that you find acceptable. That and I will help you with eager bulls and I will. But the biggest difference between me and Donald Trump is I will win. So you have to go straight at the election lies about twenty twenty. That's why that issue is so important. Someone's got to show some courage and be willing to take.
It of Genie.
Yeah, Trump could say I can win, I can win, but he's he's as his primary calendar plays out next year, he's going to have to say I can win squeezed in between probably some trials. So that's kind of an awkward situation. And how do voters Super Tuesday voters, for instance, perhaps react to the fact that his trial, one of his trials in Georgia opened up the day before.
Yeah, it's astonishing. It's hard to imagine any person could go between a political campaign, this tough running for president and this many trial dates. It's got to stick in the minds of voters. But the reality when we look at the Republican primary polls that are out so far and it is still early, is that they think that Donald Trump can win. That's why his opponents are not
going in that direction. The direction that most people are saying they should go in is not that we can win and he can't, but he is going to be too consumed with everything he's got on his plate to move this forward. We like him, we understand why you like him, but we can pick up the flack where
he is unable to because of the time constraints. I don't see how they get around that until and unless those polls change with Republican primary voters, because that thirty forty percent Juggernaut is a pretty sizable majority with that many people in the race at this point, much.
More still to come. Bloomberg Politics contributor Jenny she and Zeno Lester Munthson, principal at bg R Government Affairs. I'm Amy Morris. He's Billy House wanted to bring in now Bloomberg's Kaylee Lines. She's going to be taking over the show from here. Kayley, you're bringing us a power pack to our to end this Friday, starting with your very first guest, Republican Brian's Style of Wisconsin.
Yeah, of Wisconsin, and Wisconsin's a very interesting state right now for many reasons. A President Biden was there earlier this week in Milwaukee talking about his legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act, which of course celebrated its first birthday this week. I would imagine the Congressman, based on his activity on x the platform formerly known as Twitter, doesn't necessarily agree
with everything the President was trying to tout there. But then, more importantly, perhaps next week that's also where the debate in Milwaukee.
Will be happening.
We now know apparently former President Trump will not be in attendance. I wonder what the congressman's thoughts on that are, And then, of course, once we get past the debate, we're really going to be talking about the showdown on Capitol Hill we're probably set for in September and trying to avoid a government shutdown. Will get his thoughts on how that should be done.
Oh my goodness, I almost forgot there might be a government shutdown.
Yeah, they're probably more likely than not unless they can agree to a continuing resolution, which not every Republican in Congress may want to agree.
To everything that's been going on politically. I almost let something like that slip out of my radar, so that the deadline for that's the end of September correct.
September thirtieth. Yes, theoretically, unless they can get together on a continuing resolution, which will extend things to some point. What that point is, I don't think any of us really know. But if they can't do that, there is a risk that come October first you do have the government shut down.
But didn't Senator Schumer say that they were working on that stop gap measure together like they seem to be on at least the same page.
He and McCarthy. Sure, is McCarthy on the same page as the rest of his caucus. This is the question we continually come back to. We've seen this song and dance on a few different fights before, and the showdown over the shutdown probably won't be that much different.
And really quickly, You're also going to talk about the climate agenda, Biden's climate agenda.
We sure will. And Biden's summon happening today at Camp David with the leaders of Japan and South Korea.
That's huge, that's historic. I cannot wait to hear this. Thank you so much. Bloomberg's Kaylee lines She's going to take it the rest of the way from here. I'm Amy Morris. Billy House is also going to stick around the second hour of Sound Done. It starts right now.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
It's great to be here with Billy House today. Billy in the House. What's your Twitter?
A book?
That's what it is?
Right?
I have House and Session, House and Session even better. Yeah, I really should have looked this up before I came into the studio, But Billy, it's so great to have you here, because, as we were just talking about with Amy, we've been kind of in the August doldrums, although arguably August has been way busier than I think anyone would
have anticipated with Congress and recess. But we need to be looking toward the future because just in a couple of weeks they're going to be coming back and it's going to be a sprint to that September thirtieth deadline to try to get these twelve appropriation bills through. What are you hearing at this point about the likelihood of that actually going to be mission accomplished.
It's one of the great recent historical aspects of Congress is that they take a law August break right before spending bills are needed to be done to avoid a government shutdown. So what we're hearing is that they aren't going to do that. The Senate and the House will not be able to do all twelve annual spending bills before the October one start of the new fiscal year.
So both leaders, the Republican Leader of the House Speaker McCarthy and the Senate Democratic Leader and majority leader in the Senate, Schumer have this week said that a stopgap bill will be needed. But that's anything but easy, and there's going to be a rocky road ahead, and there are those who object, and so it's going to be again another race to the deadline.
There, and it's going to be a busy September for all of us. I'm sure. It is one thing to say, oh, we'll just do a continuing resolution. It's another to actually get a CR done.
Absolutely, there are people who have all kinds of demands before they'll go along with that.
All right, Well, let's see if our next guest has any demands to go along with this. Congressman Brian Style is joining us as a Republican from Wisconsin, also chair of the House Administration Committee. Congressman, it's been a while. Thank you so much for coming back to sound on here on Bloomberg. What are your thoughts on a continuing resolution? Can enough of your colleagues get behind it?
Well, thanks for having me on. I think what's so important is we do not allow our federal government to shut down. Ultimately, the way Congress operates pleads a lot to be desired. No private sector business would operate like this. That said, this is a situation we're in. We're not probably going to get all of the appropriations bills done in time. What we should do is extend the clock, allow us to finish the work, rather than allowing us
to shut this down. I think at the end of the day, we're going to find a way to keep the government open and operational. I think that's prudent. But then we do have to get to the work of actually moving these appropriations bills forward.
Congressman's the push for a cr also comes with a question about how long it should last, and the Speaker McCarthy has said he does not want one that would extend to the end of the year another and be jammed by Congress what other What length do you think they're looking at? And can the work get done by whatever link that is?
Well, hopefully we can only do we can we can limit this to short term extensions and really put the pressure on the Appropriations Committee to finish the work, bring the bills to the floor and get those pass. We've noticed that the Senate hasn't gotten almost anything done this year, which is a continuous problem, and the lack of action on the Senate side, But I'm optimistic that we'll actually be able to get this done. The time is going to tell Congressman.
You've joined this program many times before in which we've talked about some of the discord within the Republican Party, specifically within the House. You've described it as, you know, a Thanksgiving family dinner that has hundreds of people really hard to you know, navigate through that situation sometimes or a long road trip. How much of that do you think is going to go on around this fight. How many members do you think could make some serious noise.
About this Well, I think you're going to see a lot of jockeying for position here because the spending that's been coming out of Washington for years now has been wildly unchecked, and then further coming out of the pandemic, what we saw as a dramatic increase in the amount of spending particular and discretionary programs out a dramatic increase. How do we bring that back into check. There's a lot of people that have a lot of frustration about
how Congress operated previously. But again, at the end of the day, when push comes to shove and the VOTs come to the floor. I do think we'll have the opportunity to prevent a government shut down and ultimately get these appropriations bills complete.
How does a separate supplemental bill that includes perhaps money for MAUI and other spending, disaster aid money and Ukraine money, more money for the war in Ukraine? How does that get through? Does that just complicate everything or is that part of this overall complicated quilt of things Congress needs.
To do well?
The President effectively brought a thirteenth appropriations bill idea up. This is going to be all part of the broader negotiation of whether or not we're able to limit the growth of federal government spending, in particular on our discretionary programs. So this is part of the broader conversation that we're going to have as we all return on the other
side of Labor Day. A ton of work in front of us, but hopefully we can keep cool, our heads prevailed and actually get these appropriations bills done.
Congressman, can I just ask you, it seems that no one really is interested in sticking to what was agreed in the debt ceiling debate. So I just wonder what the whole point of the song and dance was from earlier this year. If we're just going to have the fight all over again in the next month.
Or so, well, I don't know that I fully agree with you there. I do think there's a lot of us that would like to see discussion spending cap within the caps agreed to in the debt ceiling negotiation. I think those are good caps for us to be targeting towards, and I think it's actually quite doable to do that. That said, there's going to be a negotiation with the Senate. The Senate would love to spend money. Administration would love
to spend money. So we're going to have to hold our ground, and it's going to be a grueling negotiation because it's a battle between limiting the growth or federal government spending and a continuation of really aggressive new government spending that the Biden administration has been advocating for.
Are you tired of the constant drama? Every week? Every Monday, there's a new drama facing you, guys, and by the end of the week, you well, really squeak by Is that going to just continue for the next year.
Well, there's plenty that I don't like about Washington, DC and how it operates. But I would say that some of that is largely driven by a media narrative underestimating Republicans in the House only defined by the end of the week that we've accomplished it and got it done. And so I think what we're going to have to do, we're often underestimated, we over deliver. We're going to have to keep that attitude going forward to the remainder of this Congress.
As we talk about the picture going forward and to return to what was agreed to you in the dead ceiling deal. I wonder if January first is the real deadline, because that's when that one percent across the board spending cut would kick in. Is that really the date we should be looking at.
That's one of the days. But let's not lose sight of the fact that, and in particularly relates to a national defense, conducting a continuing resolution rather than passing an appropriations bill is a really terrible policy. We're far better off to pass a new appropriations bill, in particular with how dynamic the global environment from a security situation is. That said, I'd rather do a continuing resolution than shut the government down, but it is not the right answer.
The right answer is to get the hard work done of identifying where we need to be spending in the United States, spending there and then spending in other areas well.
On that. Is there a problem, is there going to be a problem passing a supplemental with Ukraine military finding, Well, hopefully.
That's part of the broader negotiation. Really, it's the top line dollar that is both that is essential as well as what we're spending on. And so the President put forward the the supplemental as you noted, really creating that thirteenth Appropriations Bill, as I said, but this is all going to be part of a broader negotiation of how we're going to get these spending bills done this year. So on the.
Subject of the President, and if you've referred to the Biden administration's policies a few times in this conversation, he was in Wisconsin just a few days ago. He was in Milwaukee talking about the Inflation Reduction Act, noting which the data does support that inflation pressures have started to ease in this economy. How much credit do you think the administration's policies should get for that.
Well, they've eased, but they're still dramatically higher than the FED target of two percent. We have a long ways to go to bring inflation back down. And if we look at what's occurred over the course of the Biden administration, the average American family is spending over seven hundred dollars a month more than they were before President Biden took office for the same things. So American families are still getting squeezed their pocketbook. Pocketbooks recognize that Biden economics has
been disastrous to American families. I think at the end of the day, the American voters are going to recognize that and vote them out of office in twenty twenty four, Well.
It sounds like you didn't join in the one year anniversary celebrations of the Inflation Reduction Act, But you're right, some surveys do show and angst and anxiousness among the ordinary people over the economy, and that's already seems to be taking hold in some of the twenty twenty four congressional election campaigning.
No.
Absolutely, you can just pretty much talk to anybody. I mean, you can talk to any American family. Wages haven't kept up with inflation. Sure, inflation has slowed a touch, but it's still, American families are finding themselves further behind the eight ball than they were when President Biden took office. And so the question here is how do we turn that around. He pretty much needs you to do the opposite of what the Biden administration has done. He's conducted
a warrant energy. Instead, he should be unleashing American energy. He paid people not to work after the pandemic was over. You got to work to get people back to work, but not only that, but to higher paying jobs. On shoring American work, what are the IRA do? It really sent a ton of money to foreign companies and created taxes on American manufacturers, Literally the opposite of what you'd want to do if you're trying to spur growth and help American workers.
Well, if we're talking about Americans pocket books and things that have been spurring both growth, consumer spending is a big one of them. It's consistently held up. But people also haven't been having to pay monthly student loan debt repayments for a while. Now that's going to change in October. Should we be worried about the consequence for the US economy? And I asked this, given your role on the Financial Services Committee.
No, we should be worried about the consequences of the fact that the Biden administration was trying to convince people that they didn't have to pay their debts for over a year, and the five billion dollars of that cost American public every single month. The fact that the Biden administration has planned to effectively subsidize everything but not actually address the root causes should be concerning. You'll just look
at that student debt program. It did nothing to address the underlying issue, which is the high cost of education, had everything to do with subsidizing the higher education system, which is what's caused the problem in the first place.
So anything happening in Wisconsin next week.
I look forward to. I look forward to the conversation that we're going to have. I think it's all about whether or not we can present a future for the American public different and in contrast to the Biden administrations, and the contrast is ready for the taking. The hope here is that we don't delve into a personality contest, but rather we have a conversation about the policies needed to move the country forward.
But Congressman, if you want to be president of the United States. Should you be showing up to the debate, regardless of whether or not you were president before or the front runner.
I'll let the President Trump speak for himself. I'm not going to offer him advice on that in that regard, But ultimately, I think the more we're having a conversation about the disastrous policies from the Biden administration, and the more we're presenting an alternative option to the American people about economic growth, about limiting inflation, about securing the US Mexico border, we have a great opportunity to be successful in twenty twenty four.
Fallate people showing up on the debate stage refuse to suggest anything about the former president. Won't there be a big missing element to that debate? Should somebody attack or at least address the legal problems that the former president has.
I don't think people lack for information about President Trump. I think what people lack is a real clear path about where we need to take the country, and contrast
that with where President Biden has taken the country. Over the course of the past two and a half years, the media focused attention on former President Trump and everything unrelated to actual policies that need to be implemented, to get the country back on track, I think as a disservice to the American people, and hopefully on the debate stage, we're actually talking about the future of our country.
All right, final question for you, Congressman, why is Milwaukee such a good place for the first first debate? Is it the beer? Is it the cheese?
It is all of the above. I'm in Wisconsin right now. I'm let me tell you there is no place you'd rather be than Wisconsin in August. This is the perfect weather, it is the perfect beer, it's the best cheese, and we're gonna have a great time in Milwaukee next week.
Well, I've been choking on humidity here in Washington for the last month, so I'm sure you're really eager to get back to that. Congressman, thank you very much for giving us some of your time this afternoon. Congressman Brian Style, the Republican from Wisconsin and chair of the House Administration Committee as well, It's going to be an interesting one in Milwaukee next week, Billy, that is for sure. Regardless of whether or not the former president is there, he is going to haunt that stage.
Absolutely. They lost Aaron Rodgers but they have the debate.
Do you know anything about Packers football other than Aaron Rodgers.
I own stock. I bought a piece of stock.
Well, there you go. Very cool. I'm a Broncos fan myself.
I'm a Bills fan, but whatever, you know.
We talk about getting to the end of the August recess, the start of the shutdown battle and all of that. What's more important about September is it brings back NFL football, like for real, not preseasons.
Yeah.
I was gonna say, once you get past these preseason games, don't mind.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Happy Friday, everyone, and welcome back to Bloomberg Sound On. It is Kayle Lines in the seat today, but joining me is Billy House, one of our congressional reporters here at Bloomberg. Well, Joe Matthew takes a well deserved long weekend,
and what a week. It has been, Billy. We've talked a lot about all of the different stuff going on in domestic politics, least of all another indictment for former President Trump, the questions around whether or not he's going to show up at the debate in Milwaukee next week. Apparently the answer is no. Apparently counter programming is instead the answer. But something else we've talked a lot about
this week is the issue of China in particular. This is something that's the subject of conversation at Camp David, I'm sure right now between President Biden and the leaders of South Korea and Japan, but we've been talking a lot about concerns around China's economy too.
We have, and as we're talking about it, we also have a whole new committee in Congress devoted.
Just to China.
So that's a focus. Whether you know, the Republicans in Congress and the White House have the right, are on the same page and their directions is a whole other thing. But certainly it is a tunnel vision on China in a lot of ways.
Yeah, And it's a difficult needle to thread when you are trying to compete with China. But China looks like it has some frigilities going on right now. So how do you go without going too far? I mean I just pulled up. This is one of my favorite functions on the Bloomberg Terminal. Everyone, So listen closely. Read Go shows you some of the top red stories over any given time period, and this week, among the top ten red stories on the Bloomberg Terminal. China Shadow Bank misses
dozens of payments, sparking protests. China fiance giants miss payments, alarm regulators and markets. China cuts rate by most since twenty twenty as economic woes deepen. Let's bring in now David Weston. He is the host of Wall Street Week, which airs tonight at six pm Wall Street Time on Bloomberg TV. David and the conversations you've had this week. How concerned are big investors about China?
Well you have to be, don't you. I mean, it's the second largest economy in the world, whether we like it or not. We're very much intertwined with them, and it's certainly foreign. President Trump managed to get in a diamond, but President g did not have a great week either. I don't think we given just a raft of bad economic news kept coming in and we have been so concerned, as Billy just said, with the strength of China that maybe it's gotten too strong economically, particularly in things like
some conductors. But the question comes up, do we want a strong China or a week China? And so we talked to Larry Summers and we asked him just exactly that question, do we want a strong China or week China.
It's two edged. It's good when you're customer prospers, and it's bad when your competitor gets hyper efficient. So it's a two edged thing. I am concerned that we will become the object of China's frustration and that will tempt them to lash out.
So that's Larry Summer's talking about some of the concerns he has about a week China. And I must say, Kaylee and Billy, one of the things I'm hearing I heard how an Aspena was out there. I heard with Larry actually as well an analogy, and it's a strained analogy, as all analogies are, but an analogy to Japan leading a War two where if you recall, we embargued them on oil and many people think that was one of
the triggering factors of Pearl Harbor. The question is if we really cut them off too severely, might they, as Larry just said, lash out if not at us said, maybe it's somebody like Taiwan.
While you're out there, do you hear much comment about the proposed new Biden administration outbound investment restrictions with China.
It's funny. I think what I would say, Billy, is that everyone agreed we have to do something to maintain a lead in things like the super small semiconductors that allow us to do AI that they said, maybe a five year lead. We have to do what we can
to maintain them. But the concern was that it's very hard to be really narrowly targeted on that and not how to it spread into a larger form of protectionism, and particularly as it gets political, then everybody's got an iron in the fire and we say, okay, for the name of national defense, we're also going to embargo those other things. That was the biggest concern that it will go too far.
Well, speaking of going too far, we've had that concern with a lot of central banks as well, like the FED, whether they were going to go too far in their rate hiking campaign ultimately crash land the US economy that it felt like we were having more of a soft landing conversation. But the bond market's been kind of wacky this week as well. David, for all the conversation about China, which I'm sure has played a role in it, what conversations have you had around what we're seeing in bonds?
I know Larry Summers weigh in on that too.
Yeah, forgive me if I come back to Larry, because one of the questions I asked if Larry, as I asked if Rick reader last week, is where does the ten year yield want to be? I mean, where is it headed? And Larry had a very specific answer, and you can agree with it you disagree with But what I liked about it is it broke it down. He's basically, this is arithmetic. The yield in the ten year is
composed of three things. Number one is underlying inflation. He said, Okay, let's be generous and say we get it done to two point five percent. So there you get two point five. Then there's a real yield that historically has been at least one point five. Actually it's been higher in general, but one point five. So add another one point five on and there's a term premium that's normally around seventy five basis points. You add all that up, you come
up with four point seventy five. So Larry might well say to you, Kayley, I'm not sure the bond market's been all that wacky.
Hm.
How impactful were the Federal minutes on all this, do you think? Or is that just one element of all the things.
That played upon Well, it's an interesting question, Billy, because what you would have studied them close, more closer than I have. But what I took away from is there's concern, continued concern about inflation. They may not have gone far enough yet, but I think that I thought that the discussion this week shifted a little bit from are they going to raise again? They may, they may not to how long are they going to have to stay up
above five? And it's sort of a growing sense that they're going to has to stay up there for a while, as opposed to the markets that for so long we're pricing in cuts as early as you know, the first quarter of next year, and that really makes a big difference as a practice uner in things like equity valuations because of the discount right, well.
Sure, equity valuations, but also things like I don't know how much it costs to buy a home, what your mortgage rate is. I think it's now at the highest since two thousand and one, which means a first time home buyer like myself may never become a first time home buyer unless something changes. But I will digress on my personal so well.
So I have to jump in there. I have to reassure you the first house I bought was in nineteen eighty one, and my mortgage I think was seventeen So it's all relatively we managed to handles. You can do that, I think. But by the way, there's another debtor that we have to think about here. It's not just how much we pay for mortgages. How much is the federal
government going to have to pay on its debt? Because I saw a thing actually out of Miam McGinnis's shop, you know, the Committee for the Responsible Federal Budget today that really indicated how much more we're going to owe if it stays up well above four percent on the tenure.
And David just quickly, we only have about a minute left. But who else should we be looking forward to? On Wall Street Week tonight.
Well, we got Steve Ratner on with Larry because we want to talk to Larry about where the tenure is, but we want to talk to a real investor who invests billions of dollars about what difference it makes whether it's four point five or three point five. And then we took a look at activist investing with a filla named Greg Taxon who has spent his career in that. And I don't know if you've noticed. I had not
really noticed. It's dropped off substantially, and we wanted to talk to him what caused that and is it coming back? What is the dynamics of activist investing?
Awesome? Well, really looking forward to watching that. You can catch that six pm Wall Street Time on Bloomberg TV, so don't miss it. David Weston, host of Wall Street Week, thank you very much for joining us, and thank you for giving me a little bit more confidence on my ability to buy a home.
Something you can do it you can get in the future.
Thank you, David. This is the kind of energy I need on a Friday. David Weston joining us. Billy House also in the house, I'm Kayley Lines. You are listening to Bloomberg