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The day after an important vote in the House to fund the government, I have two important numbers for you. The first is twelve twelve days to a possible government shutdown, Kayley. A couple more numbers, two twenty to two oh two. That was the vote last night on this six month stopgap resolution we keep the government functioning through March. Also includes the Save Act that we've talked a lot about,
which many Democrats consider a poison pill. Fourteen Republicans joining all but three Democrats in opposition to Republicans vote at present and now what We're joined by the ranking member on the Budget Committee to find some answers, Brendan Boyle, of course, Democratic congressman from Pennsylvania. Stir it's great to
see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. There are questions about the Plan B. Now that we've had this exercise, do you expect the Speaker to present you with a clean CR, or is the Senate going to solve this for us?
Well, the final resolution of this has been painfully obvious to everyone except for perhaps Speaker Johnson and House Republican leadership. The reality is we need a clean continuing resolution, a clean CR, not something that has either a Democratic or Republican poison pill. That is the only way we're going to resolve this, and the sooner Speaker Johnson realizes that the better off we will be. I am hopeful, however, that we will see that finally and that that's how
we will resolve this to avoid a government shutdown. It might not be a six month CR the way the Speaker would want, but at least until the end of the year, which has been past practice many a time over the last decade.
Well, so if it is just for December, leaving it to this Congress that is sitting now to sort out rather than punting it to the next one Congressman, is there anything else that should be sorted out there as well, like debt limit negotiations rather than waiting until next year.
Well, as you may know from previous times I've been on with you guys, I am the author of the Debt Ceiling Reform Act. We will be back on the clock in terms of the need to raise the debt ceiling come midnight December thirty first into January first. Now, of course that won't be the actual x state. That will be some months later. And I've long believed that
we need a permanent resolution of the debt ceiling. The sooner we get that done, the better, the better for markets, and the better for the American people, so that we would have the security and the knowledge that we won't, either by design or accident, end up jeopardizing the full faith and credit of the United States and bringing about when many economists left and right believe would be a worldwide recession.
I want to ask you how you had described this moment we're in here economically, Congressman. The Federal Reserve began a new regime by cutting fifty basis points yesterday, more than some actually expected, a bit less than some Democratic lawmakers were calling for. But it signifies a moment at President Biden, speaking just about a half an hour ago at the Economic Club here in Washington, said it was not a moment.
Of victory, but one of progress.
This is something that I know that you have been working with on the administration for years here to bring down prices. Is it not time to declare victory now that the Fed is cutting.
It's quite clear we are achieving the soft landing. We have increased projections now with three percent growth for this quarter, combined with inflation that is reaching the two percent target. And that's what gave the Federal what they gave the Federal Reserve and the FOMC the confidence to be able to initiate this series of rate cuts, beginning with a robust fifty basis point cut. They would not have done that had they believed that inflation was still a major concern.
We've had rates too high for too long. In my view, this is the highest that they've been in some seventeen years, and I'm glad now that the Federal Reserve recognizes it's time to bring them lower. But make no mistake about it, this did not happen by accident. The record of achievement in the policies of this administration is why the United States leads the world in the recovery from the pandemic.
Well, Congressman, as the cutting cycle has now begun, there's also the question of how long it might last as we move to a new presidency next year, either a Harris presidency or another Trump one. We've spoken with many economists here on Bloomberg TV and Radio who have actually suggested this easing cycle could potentially be cut short if
infletionary policies are pursued by either candidate. For Donald Trump, of course, we're thinking of tariffs for lower taxes, but Kamala Harris too was talking about different subsidies lower tax rates for some individuals. Both of these people want to spend and potentially have less revenue coming in simultaneously. Congressman, so what would you say to those concerns that even if it is a Harris presidency, inflation might rear its head once again.
Well, first, let's be clear.
Recently, Goldman Sachs, not exactly known as a bastion of liberalism or progressivism, Goldman Sachs released reports concluding that the Harri's economic agenda would help the economy, while at the same time, the Trump tariff agenda and his overall economic policies would spike inflation and lead to a dramatic increase in the deficit and the debt. So it's quite clear that both candidates are not alike now in terms of how that would impact FED policy.
I trust J.
Powell and the Federal Reserve governors at their word that they will be data dependent. Hopefully come January, it'll be a continuation of policies that have brought down inflation and not this sudden tariff another word, another way of saying tax agenda that Trump wants to pursue.
You must be encouraged by some of the polls that we're seeing, Congressman, and I'll just stay right in your state of Pennsylvania. Sienna and New York Times out today Harris fifty, Trump forty six in the swing state of Pennsylvania. We saw another from Quinnipiac yesterday showing Kamala Harris turning around a massive gap that Joe Biden had with Donald Trump when it came to who you trust to handle
the economy, pulling even in Pennsylvania. If this is a standoff right now, how does it break out for one candidate or the other?
The message in your state, Yeah.
Well, first, I didn't get too down when the polls weren't looking good, and I'm not going to get I'm not going to experience a rational exuberance now that the polls are looking good on our side, an old Greenspan rightence for longtime viewers. But I do think, however, that over the next seven weeks or forty seven days, we.
Will see the polls move around a little bit as they have.
I always expected, and I've said this before, that this race would come down to Pennsylvania. And I think Pennsylvania will be exactly as it was in twenty sixteen, and exactly as it was in twenty twenty.
Pennsylvania will be a one point race. Right now.
I would rather be our side than the other side, because in the end, I think middle class Pennsylvanians will recognize there's only one candidate and campaign that's actually speaking to their concerns, while the other side, Donald Trump, is talking about god knows what, but it certainly isn't middle class economics.
Well, when we consider the middle class economics, though, are some of the economic proposals that have been put forward by the vice president and by the former president, there
is some degree of overlap. Congressman, I could think of no tax on tips, for example, for service workers, potentially the child tax credit as well, and I wonder, given your seat on Ways and Needs, whether or not you're the majority or still in the minority in the new Congress, if there are going to be some areas of bipartisan compromise in tax policy specifically that you think we could end up with no matter who becomes president.
Well, you know, it's interesting, while Donald Trump and Jdfans talk a good game on the child tax credit, then when there's the opportunity to actually expand it and make it law, you don't see really any Republican support for that in the United States Senate. Heck jd Vance didn't even bother to show up for the vote. Now, in terms of the no taxation on tips, look, that is something that I'm very interested in. There have been a number of Democrats over the years who have talked about that.
But the reality is, at the same time, Donald Trump is also talking about further cutting corporate tax rates when he was in office, contrary to what he talked about. When he was in office, his number one priority was the attempt to take away Obamacare from thirty million amarre Amerricans, and then he followed that up with his large.
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Which ended up ballooning the debt by two trillion dollars, and as you know, eighty three percent of it went to the richest one percent.
So sorry if.
I don't trust Donald Trump's word when it comes to who he would be looking out for in taxation.
Well, you're about to walk into a grand debate here on the expiring Trump era tax cuts. And of course I know that the former president has changed his opinion on the salt deduction, for instance, So this could take on a lot of different forms. Something that's a lot more immediate is the cost of gas energy in a state like yours. The President talked about that at the Economic Club. Congressman, I notice here, according to Triple A, the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded in
Pennsylvania three dollars thirty six cents. How important is it going to be for that number to come down? And I'm asking you that as well, against the backdrop of this debate over fracking. I know Kamala Harris has changed her position on that, but it's something that of course hits very close to home in Pennsylvania. How important will that be in deciding your state?
Yeah, So, first let me just say, because I can't resist on salt. I laughed out loud when I saw yesterday Donald Trump came out against his own law. Donald Trump is the reason why taxpayers in many states, including in suburban Philadelphia, no longer have the ability to fully deduct their property taxes and state and local income tax. That tax increase was because of Donald Trump. Now suddenly he's against it. I'm sure tomorrow he'll have a third position on it. But as far as gas prices, let's
not forget. Gas prices today on average, are seventy cents lower at the pump than they were just a year ago. Gas prices spiked as a result of Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine that began two and a half years ago. Fortunately, prices have dropped considerably since then, and today the United States of America leads the world in energy production. We literally lead the world in oil production. I think that part of the story probably hasn't gotten out the way
it should. I would fully expect a President Harris to continue pursuing a balanced approach when it comes to energy, addressing our short term needs while at the same time recognizing our medium and long term needs to finally address the climate change crisis.
Well, Congressman, I know we've discussed this fracking question with you before. We did so at the convention in Chicago when we saw you there and you said that politicians and leaders like Kamala Harris should be allowed some evolution on the issues. And you think she ended up in the right place with racking. She of course says that
she would no longer ban it. I just wonder if you really believe that that has fully resonated in Pennsylvania or if the attacks of Donald Trump on that issue are actually breaking through.
Yeah. Well, you might remember I shared with you that certainly in my career have one hundred percent in the same views today that I had when I first was elected to office. I think most human beings recognize that's natural, and that has the facts change, your conclusions may change. I would point out, though, that Kamala Harris has been Vice president for the last four years and this administration has actually increased the leases for fracking that was in
the Inflation Reduction Act. Natural gas is at an all time high in terms of production in Pennsylvania in twenty twenty three.
That breaks the previous record which was set in twenty twenty two.
So she has a record that you can point to to say, it's not just what she's saying today, she has actually backed this up with her actions, not.
Just her words.
All right, Congressman, always great to have you here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Thank you so much for joining us live from Capitol Hill on this Thursday. Congressman Brendan Boyle of the key swing state of Pennsylvania.
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We chart our course on this little Friday. Yes, welcome to the Thursday edition of Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington with much going on today. Joe Biden is talking to the Economic Club of Washington a little over an hour from now.
We'll get there. We'll bring an ear.
On that speech and walk you into the room to see if we hear any news as we follow the candidates themselves. Donald Trump resting up after a big night long Island with a big night in the coliseum, and Kamala Harris today heading from Michigan back to the swing state of Michigan, the state that may well decide this election on the issue that is expected to decide this election, that's the economy. And so reach under your seat, right now, reach under your seat.
Make sure there isn't a free car under there. Yes, she's appearing with OPRAH.
I make not reference, of course to the many tax exemptions that we've heard from both campaigns, But no, OPRAH is going to be holding forth and what's described as a virtual campaign event with Kamala Harris, and they are doing it not by accident from Michigan. That'll happen tonight eight forty five pm, I believe, do I have that right? We'll get that for you in just a second, eight pm. Forgive me the virtual event with OPRAH. And yes, that's right.
CC.
You get a vote, and you get a vote. I mention all of this on a day that we get a lot of new polling here. And this is interesting because it comes after the Quinnipiac poll yesterday that showed Kamala Harris catching up to, if not passing, Donald Trump in what was really a statistical tie in the three swing states that matter Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Here we go, New York Times, Siena, Pennsylvania. Kamala Harris fifty Trump forty six.
Marised out with new statewide polls on those three, Harris leading Trump in Michigan fifty two to forty seven, in Wisconsin, fifty to forty nine. In Pennsylvania, they're tied at forty nine within the margin here certainly, And I want to add one more from Morning consult forty six percent of voters, this might be the most important number that we hear today say they trust Kamala Harris to handle the economy the same share as Trump. That number was forty one
percent when Joe Biden was in the race. And yeah, I'll add one more log to the fire. Financial Times, University of Michigan Raw School, Harris a slight edge over Trump when it comes to the economy. Now, remember we're coming off the FED meeting yesterday. The wealth effect, the psychological effect of this market rally. You put this all together, and I can't wait to see what the Bloomberg swing state pole says, because we're in the field right now.
On this one, not just post debate, but post fed and for our audience here at Bloomberg that is of course extremely important now as we consider where we are here in the Grand Scheme, a conversation that we had promised you on Balance of Power live from Washington, with an eye of course, on Michigan. Nancy Kaffer is the editorial page editor at the Detroit Free Press and back with us on the program. Nancy, it's great to see you. Sorry for the shower of numbers, but we live for
this stuff. And when it comes to the economy, we have seen a pretty remarkable turn, and I wonder if you're feeling that on the ground or hearing that from people in the swing state of Michigan.
There's just, you know, instantly when the ticket switched, there was a huge surge of excitement around Harris's candidacy that just hadn't been there for Biden. And the question, of course was would she be able to sustain it and build on that over from the time in July till the election. The big advantage here is that it's a pretty short amount of time to kind of keep something going. But we're starting to see some movement in the polls.
I would say that after twenty sixteen, I kind of got out of the business of making predictions about what's going to happen here. And if anyone tells you they know, don't believe anything they say. It is going to be close here. But the polls are definitely Our last poll prior to the debate had her up by one point, which is a big shift from I think our last poll with Biden on the ticket had had him down by an astounding thirteen points. So we're starting to see
some movement. You mentioned some of those polls that show are with a substantial like lead outside the margin of error. Either you know you know this, you know this game better than I do. She's either we're going to start to see more polls showing that result, or we'll find out those polls were outliers. But we're going to learn a lot. We've got a very short amount of time here.
We do. It's a short window.
But I have to admit we're starting to find some continuity in these polls here, at least in terms of direction.
I think we can both admit here.
But I want to know more about what's happening in Michigan because there were pockets of the of the progressive Democratic base very upset with Joe Biden a lot to do with Israel. I don't know if Arab American voters in Michigan have changed.
Their tune on this, but this is a big deal for.
Democrats right now, particularly as we see Israel potentially open a new front to the north with Hesbela. We're going to talk more about that later on this hour. But there was a real protest vote in Michigan, Nancy, what about now?
So there was, and I think it's important to understand that the Arab American vote was only a portion of that. There was a large portion of uncommitted There one hundred thousand uncommitted votes in Michigan and the presidential primary, which doesn't sound like a lot of votes until you remember that Trump won the state by about eleven thousand votes in twenty sixteen and Biden won by about one hundred
and fifty thousand votes in twenty twenty. So one hundred thousand votes, well, it might not be a significant percentage. I'm a lot more interested in raw numbers right now, given the last two cycles. So we saw that uncommitted vote, not just in Wayne County, where the Arab American population is centered, or in Oakland County where there's still a significant population but smaller. We saw it in Washington Our County where University of Michigan is so there's a big
college community there. We saw it in counties actually across the state where there isn't a significant Ab American population and where there isn't like a large progressive campus population. So that is that is fascinating to me, and I think there's a lot of tension and indecision in the community about what the best thing to do this fall is. In the Arab American community specifically, there's no one I've talked to really believes that Trump is going to be
better on Gaza. This is what the folks are concerned about, is a humanitarian crisis in Gaza and civilian deaths. I don't think anyone thinks Trump is going to be better on that. But there's a there's a hard stop for people who feel that Harris has been complicit in an administration that hasn't done anything to stop or put conditions on the use of arms set or with kind of late calling for a ceasefire, and for some folks it's just kind of a moral hurdle that they're struggling to
get past. And I think there's a lot of real, genuine conflict and angst in that community, and I don't know how that's going to sort out.
Well.
That's a very thoughtful answer, which makes me think that this is still a very real story here. I wonder if it's something that Kamala Harris talks about in her virtual event later, because yes, Oprah is coming to town, and I'm curious about the Oprah effect if there is one. Nancy will remember the impact that she had on Barack Obama's campaign. But there's new pulling out for Monmouth University, and I'm guessing no one's going to stop down to
talk about this today other than yours. Truly, Just over half of American voters fifty three percent approof of Taylor Swift getting involved in this campaign and encouraging her fans to vote in the upcoming election. That means a lot of Americans don't know. We're seeing a pretty steady decline among independent and Republican and not a surprise voters in their impression of Taylor Swift encouraging her fans to vote.
Does Oprah help in Michigan.
So yeah, Oprah's very popular. You might have heard that.
You know. The thing.
The thing is, when you look at where these candidates are coming, right, You've got Harrison Walls have typically been coming to Metro Detroit Detroit area, which is which is a huge the democratic stronghold. When County is one of the most democratic counties in America, Oakland County has become has become much more democratic. It used to be a Republican stronghold. For those of your listeners who don't have an encyclopedic knowledge of Michigan counties, it's a more affluent,
more educated county. It's been trending blue Washington County where ann Arbor in the University of Michigan are obviously much more democratic and progressive. So they have been concentrating the Democrats have been concentrating their retation in this area. The Republicans have been coming to more rural, more outstate places. So these guys know where their votes are, right and there's roughly Michigan is roughly split. And this is a turnout game. This is who can get people out to
the polls. And I think you see that in what they're doing and where they're coming. And so Detroit is a very democratic city, like ninety eight percent Democrat, we tend to have lower voter turnout in the city of Detroit proper. There's a lot of black voters in this eighty percent black. It's it's a it's a it's a city where turnout has lagged, and activating Detroit voters, getting them to have an incentive to go out to the polls is a big objective for a Democratic campaign that
wants to win statewide. So I think that that's you know, this Oprah play, which is by the way, not open to the public or I'm not even sure if it's open to media. It is it is I think clearly intentionally aimed at black voters in Detroit, and there is a sizeable A lot of people don't realize that there's a sizeable population of as there's been a you know, over the last Detroit's population decline is probably something some of your listeners, most of your listeners have heard something
about over the years. But a lot of black Detroiters have moved out to suburbs, and so there are a lot of suburbs that are not the majority of blacks, and we also talk about the black voter Michigan. It's not just Detroit. There's a broader swap. And I think that you know, this is a very this is a very intentional positioning in where this campaign is coming and who they're reaching out to, because they know who they need to turn out. And I think that the Trump Vance
campaign is doing the same thing. They've got to excite those more rural, more exurban voters in historically red counties.
With the view from Michigan.
We're spending time with Nancy Kaffer at the Detroit Free Press as part of our conversation today on Balance of Power. Just about a minute from now, we're going to be going to an important interview that Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowitz will
bring us with the CEO of Jet Blue. So Nancy, in our remaining moment, I just wonder your thoughts, if we can be somewhat brief here on the impact of the teamster's decision to not endorse, knowing that rank and fire or leaning toward Trump, how does that impact, for instance, auto workers who have endorsed in this campaign in Michigan.
I think there's been a disconnect between leadership and the rank and file for a while now, I think the leadership has been more historically aligned with Democrats. I think the rank and file has been turning, you know, towards specifically toward Trump. I think this is probably, you know, just further evidence of that. I think that it's going to be interesting to see how it plays out a lot of times we're sort of getting primary source information
as events play out in real time. You know, the old thing that journalism is the first draft of history. So I kind of I hope we can talk about this after the election when we see how it's uh, we see how these votes are shaken out.
Well, we will talk about it after the election. I like to stay in touch with you until the election. Nancy is great to have you back.
Nancy Kaffer runs the editorial page editor at the Detroit Free Press.
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Thanks for coming along. It's Balance of Power. You made it to Thursday out. You're almost there. It's Oprah night tonight on the campaign trail, Kamala Harris holding a virtual event yes with Oprah, who of course spoke at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this day after Donald Trump went swinging in New York, appearing at the Coliseum there Uniondale.
Remember we talked about this even though New York has not gone to a Republican for many, many years, and most analysts don't see that happening again, which raises questions about some of the travel decisions that are being made in this campaign. Of course, Trump was in Flint, Michigan two days ago, and we have new numbers on the swing states Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin yesterday, Quinnipiac today it's Marist and Kamala Harris is either tied with or leading Donald
Trump in all three. These are the three states that make up the blue Wall. Of course, Okay, Michigan Harris fifty two, Trump forty seven, Wisconsin Harris with a one point lead. They're tied in Pennsylvania. New York Times Sienna brings forth Pennsylvania specifically, a lot of people think this is the state that decides the election. Harris fifty Trump forty six and as I mentioned, we're hearing more about Kamala Harris and the level at which voters trust her
with the economy. She's pulled even with Donald Trump in the Morning Consult pull forty six percent, and she's leading Donald Trump by a bit in the latest You Miss Ross School pull. So this is a very important moment in the campaign where a day after the Fed everyone knows interest rates are coming down, stock market going up, and the potential wealth effect that that could have if only psychologically. Of course, that is the idea behind the wealth effect. See how our panel feels about it today.
We've got a lot to talk about with It's Camuso Miller, the former RNC Communications director, is with us, host of the Friday Reporter podcast, joined by Adam Hodge, Managing director, Bully Pulpit, international democratic strategist and former economic advisor for President Biden.
Great to see both of you here. Welcome.
I'm looking forward to this conversation. As Yes producer James calls us the balance of polls today, We've got a lot of data and I apologize for all the numbers, but they create a mosaic Adam that would show Kamala Harris catching up with Donald Trump on the issue that will decide this election. They're basically tied on the economy. And when you look at the very small number of voters that they're fighting over here, this race is locked
and it really could not be a lot closer. And the polls where she's leading Trump, it's basically within the statistical margin of error, Adam, So, how do you decipher these polls?
I think one with a little bit of caution.
These are a snapshot in time, right so, well, we know this is how voters in some of these states think right now. I know from talking to the campaign they're keeping their head down on the ground and so they're focused. In Pennsylvania, for example, great that there's a poll that shows her up for they know they got fifty offices that are open, and they got hundreds of volunteers, and they got to get them out on the doors, knock it and try to get people to commit to vote.
Early voting is just a few weeks away, and so they know that they're trying to get people energized and thus to get ready and go out. I think that is where I from talking to the campaign, where their focus is. I think on the numbers in the economy, though, it speaks to you know, she's been laying at more details and policy, and from people who watched the debate, that was one of the key numbers that jumped out to me in some of the latest polls, both the
ft Pole and the other ones that we've mentioned. People who watched the debate, they heard her talk about her plans for the economy and they seem to be responding to it. And so the campaign certainly has got to be happy about that, but they know they got to do the work on the ground.
What's your take on this, And if you're Donald Trump, do you have to worry about the one issue that you really seem to own that was who do you trust to handle the economy? Who do you trust to handle interest rates? Or is this kind of a brief feeling of euphoria after the Fed finally started.
Cutting Well, I certainly think that. I think Adam's probably right. Both sides of this campaign have got to very well be very cautious about getting excited because there's still a little ways to go. Joe, so yes, I think economic news moving in the right direction under Kamala Harris and Joe Biden's administration, I think does work in their favor.
Donald Trump still will always be the candidate that voters see as the one that they feel more confident as it relates to the economy, for better or for worse. I'm not so sure that the data proves that out, but that's sort of the way the voters have been feeling. Also to Joe, a lot can happen between now and then, and so I think the other question becomes how much of an impact does the fact that the Congress didn't get a continuing resolution done yesterday impact some of those
polling numbers. There's so many other factors that really play here that I think we have to keep an eye on it. But certainly for the Harris campaign, they should be feeling very confident knowing that their messaging is hitting and it's working, and the Trump campaign has a lot of work to do in order to maintain that foothold that they had before this week.
You know, we're going to be hearing from Kamala Harris, as I mentioned later today, with Oprah Adam, I don't know if they're going to get to these types of issues, but what's the Oprah effect in the States that we're talking about. You go to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and talk about one of the most famous celebrities in the world here. And what she brings to the race is is it quantifiable?
I think it's eyeballs and it gets people to pay attention and hear Harris's name. And if it's another day where she wins the news cycle, where she can talking about her ideas and her visions, that's a win. And so that's where I think you can you can see her kind of leverage this moment. But I'm structure also by what you talked about kind of in your lead
as well. You know, Trump campaigning in Long Island not exactly about presidential battleground, but you saw last week Harris went out to you Johnstown and Wilkes Bar in Pennsylvania, not traditional Democratic strongholds in a but in a true swing state, trying to ramp up her margin or shrink the deficit that she will have with Trump in some of those areas. That's just a key strategy for the campaign.
Something he saw them do in Georgia that right, They did that tour after the debate where they went to Savannah in southeast Southwest Georgia trying to It's all about margins, and if you can hold down the margins in some of these key areas by talking about your plans, you're more likely to be successful on election Day.
Why is Donald Trump in New York?
Lisa A lot has been talked about his sort of desire to win the state despite the history. He says he's serious about winning New York City, which has voted Democratic in every presidential election since nineteen eighty four.
Is that time well spent?
Well?
I mean, it's certainly in the biggest media market in the country, right, so it's going to continue to get to draw a lot of eyeballs and a lot of people paying attention for Donald Trump. That's his home city. So he's hoping that that works out in his favor
and then he makes history that way. And the other thing too, to Adam's point, is that this race, the one thing these polls show us, Joe, is this race is raiz or of thin that people are really still going to come down to how many people turn out and who's going to be in the ballot box. And so if you're Donald Trump, you're thinking I'm in the
biggest media mark in the country. I'm making as much news as I possibly can, and I'm giving myself an opportunity to maybe win a city that ordinarily Republicans don't necessarily carry. So for him, perhaps that's the calculus that's going on in his mind.
You know, he revived the claims of Haitian immigrants eating pets in Springfield last night. I bring this up, Adam, not to be labor this day after day, but the presidential candidate is bringing it up to talk about it, and he says he's going to visit both Springfield, Ohio and Aurora, Colorado in the next two weeks. There's been a lot of reporting on this. Wall Street Journal's got another dive on this today, making it pretty clear that the campaign very well knew that these claims were false.
They actually reached out to the city government in Springfield on September ninth, before Donald Trump said it on the debate stage on September tenth.
Does Kamala Harris respond to any of this, I.
Think she does by highlighting that this is just more of the same old chaos and division that you saw from Trump in his presidency. I pull after poll shows that's what the voters are tuned off by the most. You know, it's not that whether he's weird or whether he's you know, doing other crazy things, although talking about people eating cats and dogs is a little bit weird, but it's more about this point, about the chaos and division.
And it could not be any.
More clear when you have the mayor of Springfield, the governor of Ohio saying like this is a bunch of nonsense. We really don't want you coming and distracting our community. It's tearing our schools apart. You saw actually one of her most powerful answers in that interview with the National Black Journalists this week, talking about the kids going to school for the school class picture, and it all got canceled because there was a you know, there are bomb
threats in the town. That's the type of chast and division the American people, quite frankly, they just cannot don't have any patients for and don't want it any part of at least.
I don't know if you heard the chant last night inside the coliseum, save the cats. Remember lock her up? Now we're doing save the cats. What's that doing for the message on the economy For a campaign that was leading.
On that front, I mean, Joe, to me, this is just another silly gimmick that does definitely keep people paying closer attention to what Donald Trump will say next. And so whether or not that there is genius in that tactic or if that is just plain bizarre to all of us that are digesting it every day, I'm not
so sure. But the one thing I will say is that Donald Trump continues to be followed and paid attention to by those who love him and those who hate him, and that continues to keep the spotlight on him, regardless of how ridiculous this theme is that he's talking about.
Well, I'll tell you what, if he decides to visit either of those towns, that's going to be quite a splash. Adam, considered the logistics you worked in the White House. The type of security that Donald Trump now has is on the level of a sitting president. He's got the full compliment. What would it mean to roll into Springfield after all these bomb threats with the full Secret Service entourage.
He's a huge upheaval whenever one of these candidates travels. And I think I again, that's why it struck me that the Republican governor of Ohio, and you know, the city manager, the mayor of Springfield have just asked them just to stop it, to tone it down, and it's not true. It's tearing apart in the fabric of the city and even you know, some of the underlying issues were the frustration in the town of Springfield around the immigrant increase of immigrant population.
In the town.
You know, I've struck by some of the family members who actually were most affected by calling this out and saying it's just it's tearing apart our community and we just shouldn't stand for it. So I think it has a risk of backfiring. I think the Harris campaign, certainly it is talking about how President Trump wants to divide us and that she's the new way forward of trying
to bring people together. It plays into her hands in many ways, but I think she's got to stay focused also on what her economic vision is for the country, and that's where where I think you'll see her talk about in the in the event with Oprah's Night and over the next forty six days.
We're going to be listening, of course to that event, as we do both candidates when they're in the field. It's eight pm. I believe Eastern time, Hope, Brah. This is virtual though, you know I'm a crowd for this, so I'm not sure how that's going to go.
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We want to get some more expert analysis on this now, and we turn to Jennifer Kavanaugh, who is Senior Fellow and Director of Military Analysis at Defense Priorities. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Jennifer. I'd love to begin with you in the point that Dan was just alluding to the question here, frankly, of Israel's capacity to fight
a war on multiple fronts. If this is where it goes, If Hesbola is the better armed and better prepared advert Sari, perhaps more so than Hamas, with which they've been fighting now for nearly a full year, is Israel really ready for this or does it want to avoid it?
Well, a wider war isn't in anyone's interests, including Israel's. Hesbela has one hundred and fifty thousand ballistic missiles, not bolistic missiles, excuse me, one hundred thy thousand missiles, including ballistic missiles that can strike major Israeli cities. So the threat from Hesbela is significantly greater than the threat from Hamas,
and the casualties would be much higher. If you remember, Israel bought a war against Hesbela in two thousand and six, and it did not go well for Israel, although they did end up of victorious in the end, or victorious as as victorious as they could be. So it's definitely not in Israel's interests. It's not clear that they would
necessarily achieve their objectives. It's also not in Hesbela's interests to have a wider war, which could potentially put some restraint on any retaliation that they might have.
Well, you mentioned the ballistic missiles here, and that's quite a bit all on its own, Jennifer, how do you contrast Hesbelah as a fighting force and the type of strategy that the IDF would have to employ very different than going after Hamas and Gaza.
Absolutely it would be I mean, the first real challenge I think would be coming from the air because they have such a large missile arsenal as well as these ballistic missiles, they can saturate Israeli air defense and that will allow them to get some missiles through. So that's the first real challenge. The second is that hesbel has a much bigger group, a much better armed group just in terms of other types of weapons that they have
on the ground. So any type of ground incursion would also be much much more difficult, and you have to believe that the HESBELA fighters have built fortifications and booby traps and other types of challenges that Israeli soldiers that would face were they to go, were they to launch a larger ground invasion, So I think what's more likely
is that you might see smaller raids. I think the main goal of what we've seen in Israel and Lebanon over the past couple of days has been to really put pressure on HESBLA and to show not necessarily that they're planning a large ground invasion, but that this will be the focus of Israel's political and military pressure to try to get some sort of buffer and force the issue to be able to move the Israeli's back into their homes in the North.
Well, of course, Hesbela and Hesbela's chief in a news conference today essentially said that Israel won't be able to do that until the war in Gaza ends. That the attacks on Israel will not stop until the war in Gaza stops. Jennifer, are we any closer to that actually becoming reality? What does this do to the conversations around a ceasefire?
I mean, I think honestly it makes it less likely because I'm just really not sure, and I think many other analysts share this view that it's just not clear what Hamas gains from a ceasefire. At this point, most of the infrastructure in Gaza has now been destroyed. It's not clear that that that Hamas is suffering any more major costs. They have survived and they probably will survive, so there's no real incentive for them at this point
to have any sort of ceasefire. I think the other challenge that Israel faces and moving citizens back into the North is just this idea of safety. If you're an Israeli citizen, are you even if the war in Gaza ends, do you feel safe going back until there's some sort of resolution to the challenge that it faced from Hezbolah.
And I think that's why you see the Israeli government really pushing this military solution or military action, is that there has to be some event or change on the northern front that gives is Israeli the confidence that they'll be safe if they were to return.
Axios Jennifer is reporting that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is postponing his trip to Israel planned for early next week because of the escalation on Israel's border with Lebanon. What's the US posture here? We had two very rare moved I have two carrier strike groups in the region as Israel was bracing for a retaliation that never arrived, the second one from Iran.
How about now, Well.
The United States has made it clear from the start that it supports Israel's right to defend itself and that it would, you know, help Israel defend itself were there to be an attack, especially from Iran. It's not clear how they would necessarily respond to attack from Hasbal. I think if Israel was facing an attack from ballistic missiles, they might again as they did in April, intervene with some air defense support, but I think that would be the limit of it. So I'm not sure that necessarily
much changes from the US perspective. I think the urgency in the Pentagon and in the White House to try to avoid any sort of retaliation from either side is very high right now. The question is you know whether or not that can hold. I think Hesbala has really very little incentive to ask late. They may want to retaliate, but a larger war would be very damaging to the
Lebanese population broadly and could damage their political support. I think the bigger question mark is what Israel does, and we've seen since the start, since October seventh, that the United States has very little influence over the Israeli political and military decision making, So I think that's the wildcard here.
All right.
Jennifer Kavanaugh from Defense Priorities, thank you so much with the latest analysis from the Middle East, And of course, Joe, you and I were having a conversation yesterday with someone who used to work for both the National Security Council and the National Economic Council at the White House, Jennifer Harris, and we talked to her on the heels of a FED rape about inflationary risks that still may be present, and part of what she spoke about was the inflationary
risk that could be emanating from the Middle East if you do see an escalation of conflict and potentially a disruption to energy flows as a result.
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