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We begin our conversation here with the man running this election. David Scanlon is with us, the Secretary of State of New Hampshire, joining us live from the Capitol in Conquered and mister Secretary, I appreciate your coming along on this eve of the primary. I'd love to hear about what you think is going to transpire here, and I'd love to ask you about turnout. To start, I'm here in Manchester where it kind of looks like any other Monday. We're used to the big primary carnival, and it's been
a bit quiet this time, this sense of inevitability. What will that look like when it comes to turnout.
Well, I fully expect that there's going to be a good turnout tomorrow, certainly on the Republican side. President Trump has a good, solid base that turns out for him, and the undeclared voters in New Hampshire seem to be motivated to turn out for the Republican primary on the Democratic side, Usually when there is an incumbent president running for a second term, the turnout is lower than normal.
The unusual case this election is that President Biden's name was not on the ballot because he declined to file here based on the issues we've been having with the Democratic National Committee.
Well, in terms of the contested primary, it's Republicans, and I bring our listeners and viewers back to the record in twenty sixteen, two hundred and eighty five thousand, of course, Donald Trump won that primary. Mister secretary, what do you think it'll look like this time?
Well, I made a prediction of three hundred and twenty two thousand voters turning out. Is that would be a record number of Republicans turning out for presidential primary. And the way I came up with that number was looking back at similar primaries and engaging turnout. This was a difficult one to predict because for the first time ever, we have two individuals that have served as president of the United States that are running in their respective primaries.
And then you know, we have to look at how motivated the undeclared voters seem to be in the state to turn out and vote for a candidate in both parties. This time the actions on the Republican side.
I'm compelled by the very practical nature of your work here, dealing with paper ballots driving them to central locations. There's obviously a great conversation here about election integrity, election security. How confident are you that this will be a clean process tomorrow.
This will absolutely be a clean process, There's no question in my mind. And what happens in a polling place in New Hampshire is that the moderator will open the polls at the appropriate time, the voters will cast their ballots. When the polls close, the moderator will come up with the final results at that polling place. Those results will be posted at the polling place and then the return of votes will be filled out by the moderator that
reflects those results. They will come to my office very early the following morning and we will add them up to certify the final results. In New Hampshire, the polling places are actually run at the local level by locally elected officials of moderator or clerk supervisors of the checklist selectmen. They're all elected by their neighbors and friends and members of the community, and they get those jobs because of their integrity and their ability to do a good job.
In a small state, we will have over six thousand individuals working at the polls and they are all average citizens of New Hampshire, but they're dedicated to doing a good job and reporting accurate results.
So with that said, why does New Hampshire have multiple closing times? How does that potentially complicate your job?
Well, it's not that complicated. In New Hampshire, the law says the polling places have to be open from a minimum of eleven in the morning till seven o'clock. Many polling places have varying hours in the morning when they start up, but at the end of the night, most polling places close at seven o'clock and then there's a handful, maybe a couple dozen, that stay open until eight o'clock.
So those are the two closing times. And I would expect that even with the write in effort taking place on the Democratic ballot for Present and Biden, that we will have results by the end of the night.
By the end of the night, I just wonder after what happened in Iowa, how worried you might be for the Associated Press to make a call at seven when you still have people in line, potentially until eight o'clock. They called the caucuses half an hour into the process. Have you been in touch with the Associated Press? Will they wait until all polls are closed?
I have not been in touch with the Associated Press. I would expect, as in prior elections, that results were declared. Outcomes of the election won't be made until after eight o'clock when all of the polls close.
Well, it sounds like you're looking for an impressive turnout despite what seems to be a relatively subdued primary. Mister secretary, give us a bit of a seminar before you leave. In geography, where should we be watching tomorrow night in the communities and counties that will side the outcome of this election? Is it those along the mass border where you have a concentration of conservative Republican voters or will we learn more as we go north through the evening.
New Hampshire has some interesting pockets of a voter turnout, and I think you're correct that there are towns along the southern border with Massachusetts that are conservative and will vote heavily Republican. And then you move up into some of the cities, whether it's Nashaua or Manchester over in the Sea coast, Portsmouth, or the town of Hanover where Dartmouth colleges, you would expect to see higher democratic turnout there.
I think yeah. I mean it's hard to say which towns are going to be Bellweather towns in this election because it is very different.
Appreciate your joining us on the eve of the primary. Good luck tomorrow, mister secretary. It's great to have you with us here on Bloomberg. David Scanlon live from the Capitol and conquered as we get things started here on the fastest show in politics. This is Ballants of Power Radio on the satellite, on the old fashioned radio and here on YouTube. I'm Joe Matthew in Manchester, New Hampshire. Thanks for being with us as we introduce two familiar
voices and faces here. Also with us here in the Bloomberg bureau that we've set up on Elm Street in Manchester. Laura Davison is with us Bloomberg Politics correspondent, along with Greg recording. It's great to see both of you here. Gregory, thanks for joining at the table. Laura. Based on what we just heard a bit ambitious maybe on the turnout front. How's that going to look tomorrow based on your view?
Yeah, this is a kind of the real question and something that both campaigns are looking at closely, Hayley's camp in particular. Once a strong turnout, especially those undeclared, which I think will be sort of the piece that makes the difference for them. Hampshire is a little bit weird in that you can sort of be undeclared. It's not necessarily independent, but you can go in and choose a
ballot on primary day. So this is a thing that New hamp Sure, New Hampshire herites take very seriously and you know, go to a bunch of events, meet these candidates and end up deciding you know, potentially, you know, in the final week up to the primary.
Yeah, you've both been on the ground for a few days here, Gregory, what's your thought on a high turnout tomorrow? Does that potentially advantage Nikki Haley?
I think the conventional wisdom and it does. And it's precisely because of those undeclared independent voters that are more traditional Republicans. They are there are a lot of sort of white collar professional suburbs in the lower tier of
the state. They're they're really they're in New Hampshire, but you could really consider them suburbs of Boston's right, and they're within sort of long commuting distance, and those are are suburbs that Nikki Haley is gonna need a high turnout from if she's gonna pull any kind of an upset here.
That's it's interesting when you consider it's sort of counterintuitive. People think of suburbs as being more moderate, more liberal, But these are folks who work in Boston and I have such an allergy to Massachusetts policy and taxes that they move just over the border here into New Hampshire. So while they may be functioning all day long in Massachusetts, they're going to decide likely who the next nominee is. That's advantage Nikki Haley.
Yeah, I mean, as Gregory said, this is really your traditional kind of country club type Republican. They're focused more on economic issues, low taxes, low regulation, but maybe a little bit more progressive on social issues. They are close to Massachusetts, but have either you know, self selected to live across the New Hampshire line, where taxes are lower and regulations are a little bit more free.
You know, this is kind of where we see.
The shifting Republican Party of you know, areas that used to be very strong for Republicans now you know, Nicki Haley still appealing, Donald Trump not so much, and areas like this that Biden won in twenty twenty.
We've got a lot of new polling out today, pick your poll. We could talk about it, but they all came before Ron DeSantis dropped out of the race. Gregory. The conventional wisdom there is those votes go to Donald Trump. Those people weren't about to vote for Nicki Haley, and the timing here might be very difficult for her.
Well, keep in mind, it's only six or seven percent of the electorate that rond De Santas is pulling at, and so they there's three options for those voters left right. They can vote for Donald Trump, they can vote for Nicki Haley, or they can stay home. Or keep in mind, obviously, Ronda Santis, his name is still going to be on the ballot. I would expect, you know, maybe even one or two percent might stick with him at to send
a message even though he's not on the ballot. He was at the stage where he wasn't going to get any delegates anyway. The delegates in New Hampshire are allocated proportionally, but you have to get at least ten percent of the vote to get any delegates, So those votes probably go mostly to Trump. That's the conventional wisdom that the issues are more aligned there. Dessanta said all along had been pitching himself as a Trump like Republican, a Maggi
Republican but with a little less baggage. But some of them may also go to Nicky Haley, just because if you're gonna be for Trump, you've probably have been for Trump all along, and maybe you're looking for a non Trump alternative. But it's certainly not enough votes to make up the distance between Haley and Trump at this point.
Well, here a bit later on from Governor Chris Snuna, who we spoke with before the broadcast. Laura, he's talking about a strong second, not actually winning this as I feel like we were hearing a couple of weeks ago. He says that they never made that promise, and I guess we can we can assume that that's the case for now. But even if she wins New Hampshire, what's the path when you see the deficit that she's got in her home state of South Carolina.
It's a really tough path.
And what you hear Snow saying about a strong second and this is all expectation setting right now, and you know there's still privately, you know, can be hoping for that first place win.
But you know, if she comes.
In, you know, a close second, can still you know, can publicly count that as a quote win.
But it's tricky.
Part of the theory of her case is that it's a month until South Carolina and that if she's able to come out of this with some momentum, she can use the Americans for prosperity money that a coke back money, to really build an operation in South Carolina to turn out the voters that she needs. It's a still a really difficult case to make when you just look at the deficit she has with Trump and just the electorate there.
It's a lot more similar to Iowa, a lot more evangelical, and she doesn't have quite the same advantage that she does in New Hampshire, just.
Saying something when that's your home state. But so it comes down to a case of momentum. That's the argument right, Gregory, and you've been in touch with the Haley campaign. They say that these numbers will change if she outperforms in New Hampshire. But that's feeling like a wing and a prayer at this point, isn't it.
What has been remarkable to me about this entire campaign cycle is just how stable the race has been from the beginning. Trump's lead has seemed to be impenetrable even as other candidates have surged, and it's really Haley who has really had the momentum. As you say, Trump's numbers haven't budgement. They've always been low forties or high forties to low fifties in terms of the poll numbers, And
that fifty percent line is a magic line. Even if you were to consolidate all the anti Trump support in the Republican Party, that means you still wouldn't get the numbers that you need to dislodge him from that purge. But yes, you're right. The Cayley case is that obviously Trump is better known, he's been president before. As voters get to know her in each of these early primary states, that will build upon each other, and she will more than likely do better in New Hampshire. Than she in Iowa.
But then she's got to take the next step in South Carolina and do even better. And it's a tall called Hilda Kon.
Had a lot to learn the next twenty four to forty eight hours. I'm glad you're with us. Gregory Cody, Laura Davison, Thank you. This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then Rodoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Where there's Smoke, There's Fire, The headline in the Union Leader, as this great old newspaper endorses Nicky Haley. On the Sunday before the primary, We're going to spend some time
with the publisher of The Union Leader. As I read in the op ed, where there's smoke, there's fire, Nicki Haley is our choice for the twenty four first in the Nation primary, referring to Nicki Haley as an accountant by career and training, a mother, a military spouse, the child of immigrants, and one with the experience as a successful governor and diplomat. It's a pretty good story to tell if you're running for president. Brenda McQuaid thinks, so
he wrote it. The New Hampshire Union Leader president publisher is with us here at the desk in New Hampshire. Thanks for having us in the Granite State. It's nice to see you.
Thanks for being here.
By all means for our viewers on YouTube. We've got the Union Leader here because we love newspapers at balance of power. When this dropped on Sunday morning, this has always been a big moment in the New Hampshire primary. People were already moving on. When I look at the last line of this op ed that you wrote, I'm compelled New Hampshire can prove you right that the independent minded voters of the Granite State will not be told
the election is a done deal. I've been hearing this is over since I got here.
We've been hearing that it's over for about a year and a half. That it was a set thing. It was going to be Trump Biden again. Yeah, that no one wanted it, but that's what was going to happen, and it seems like that may come to pass. Whatever people do. But our voters haven't had their say yet, and we think they deserve to.
But fifty thousand people in Iowa essentially have brought us to this point.
Possibly, But you know, Iowa is a state of things over three million people, and you're talking a tiny percentage of the four million people.
Well that's right. Yeah, So the Secretary of State earlier this hour told us that we could see record turnout tomorrow. Is that possible in a when there's a sense of inevitability like this.
It's certainly possible. We're encouraging people. I mean, I don't care if you like Trump, you want to write in Biden, you want to write in peace or ceasefire. We hope that people get out and vote and exercise. They're right, it's going to be a nice day tomorrow.
So hopefully that you got weather on your side.
Yeahowa, Yeah, but I don't know. So many candidates having dropped out before New Hampshire means that there's a potential that some of those folks who were excited about candidates might not turn out.
I want to ask you about your conversations with NICKI Haley and what brought you to this point. But were you disappointed that Ron de Santis bailed on the eve of the primary. His staff, from what I hear, actually thought he was here. They were manning events that never took place yesterday, and he was in Florida the whole time.
Yeah, we were talking with his campaign up until last week about having him in to talk to you. He never sat down with you, He never sat down with us. No. No, he was running at Iowa heavy campaign, and I think that seems to be what showed him that it wasn't in the cards for him.
It seems like such an easy box to check. You go to the union leaders, sit down for an ed board.
Yeah, yeah, I mean we've we've never actually had an ed board. Common misconception. It's always been just sort of a group of us, but not a formal ed board, which is nice. We just sit down and have a conversation, but you have to show up and talk to the paper.
Yeah, Nikki Haley did, she did. What was that meeting?
Like?
It was?
It was very nice, you say, hey.
We got one here, George. Was there a deliberation that follow.
Oh, definitely a deliberation. Yeah, Because at that time there were more candidates in the race. We still had several other candidates who have since dropped out, and we were, you know, hoping to talk to more of them, but it was actually, uh, I think we had Chris Christy scheduled to come in Thursday morning and he dropped out Wednesday night.
How about that.
Yeah, so even Chris Christy didn't make it to the newsroom.
Yeah, and we endorsed him in twenty sixteen.
Yeah, and he was making a big New Hampshire player. In fact, that might be the first stop he made. Yeah, Donald Trump, I'm guessing not this time, but he did sit down with you in twenty sixteen.
He did sit down with us in twenty sixteen, and he was the Donald Trump that we've all come to know over these past several years. You know, a lot of energy, a lot of a lot of bravado. That's who Donald Trump has always been. Yeah, but he wasn't the choice for us, and we didn't think he was the right choice for New Hampshire or the country.
So then why Nicki Haley?
Why Nicki Haley? Nicki Haley is the best candidate on paper and the best candidate in person that we've met in this cycle. She's got a ton of experience. She's a solid communicator, and she's most importantly to me, she's a candidate of nuance, which you're featured in some of the TV commercials from saw mister Trump that don't like nuance, right, Yeah, But I think that's important for a leader to have that nuance and to understand that everything's not black and white.
It's interesting you mentioned that ad. They lifted part of our interview that was specific about raising the Social Security age or reforming right the benefit. Somehow she's the only candidate who went there. Was that part of your conversation. Did you have a sense that she had a plan to deal with entitlements?
Oh?
Yeah, She's going to a couple of places. Entitlements are definitely one of them, because that's part of one of the biggest issues facing this country, which is the debt and the deficit. But she's going there with that. She's going there with term limits, which is, you know, not a very popular thing among the folks in Congress that are all turning out to support various candidates. She goes there because you know, she understands that these things are important.
She thinks can it's of a certain age should have a cognitive test, do you.
I think maybe candidates of all age should have a cottony of the test. But yeah, I think that there's a I think it's a it's a good punchline for her, but I think it is a valid point that she is a candidate that was born in the Vietnam era and not the World War II era.
It's a line from mirror endorsement. We cannot talk about Nicki Haley without addressing the elephant in the room, you say, and the rather old donkey hiding in the White House. I think I know who you're referring to, Nicki Haley. You right, is an opportunity to vote for a candidate rather than against those two. It's interesting. Were the other candidates all a protest vote?
No?
No, I think I think it's just that Nicki Haley is one that you can definitely support. Chris Christy built a lot of his campaign on anti Trump, which.
Vote against Trump.
Some of the folks loved him for yeah, and you know, I don't disagree with most of the things that he was saying about Trump. But Nikki Haley is running her own campaign. It's not an anti Trump campaign. And yes, it was Joe Biden. We were talking about who has moved from a basement campaign to a rose garden campaign, skipping New Hampshire entirely, which is just outrageous.
Well, I'm glad you went there. I talked to Annie Custer at this table the other day, and she's driving this right in campaign for the president of the United States. I don't know if that's ever happened before that the president has to get it right in like this. Okay, Well, here we are, and I wonder how risky it is for him knowing that Dean Phillips is out there beating the drum every day. Could we be in a world where Joe Biden gets less than fifty percent.
Yeah, or loses to a Dean Phillips that's actually here in the state and campaigning. Yeah, it's possible. They're trying to save him from the embarrassment. Our editorial today point out that he deserves to be embarrassed. He deserves to be embarrassed for what he's done to democracy in killing the New Hampshire primary on the Democratic side, but also
the Iowa caucus. I don't know if you've ever experienced the Democratic Iowa caucus, but it was a thing of beauty to watch these neighbors go one on one and convince each other when their candidate didn't have enough support to.
Join there crossing the gymnasium.
No, no, it's it's a it's a you know, remote sort of ballot fill in and we'll we'll know later sometime and no one will care.
Well, so this is interesting. You say that he's doing damage to democracy. He says that he's turning his attention to a more diverse field, that New Hampshire doesn't represent the nation in its makeup and it's demographics. How do you answer that?
So I was discussing this with someone over the weekend. You know, if you look at New Hampshire, we're not a hugely racially diversed They.
Say it's an old white state, let's say it out loud.
But we are incredibly diverse in terms of politics, in terms of thought, in terms of demographics of people, income levels all over the place, education levels all over the place. And the thing that really helps in the primary is that we allow our undeclared voters to vote for either party.
They can choose either ballot and that does that result in a surprise?
I think it might those people are really hard to pin down. And I was talking to someone about the polls. You know, Oh, the polls, the polls. Yeah, New Hampshire people love to mess with polsters.
It's sport.
Yeah.
I'm out of time, but I wonder your thoughts on an early call tomorrow. Is AP going to step in before people are done voting at eight o'clock?
I don't know. I hope not. I know that that happened in Iowa, and I think that it's a disservice whenever any one does that. It's funny.
You know.
They may call it for Donald Trump, who was a guest when that happened in twenty twenty against him, So it'll be interesting to see what happens this time.
I'm really glad you came by to see us.
Well.
I feel like it's important to be in New Hampshire and as long as this contest is going on, we'll be here for It's great to meet you in person.
I'm glad you guys are here because many of your colleagues aren't.
Yes, indeed, Well Bloomberg is on the ground and it's great to have Brenda McQuaid with us. From the Union Leader, thanks for bringing the paper and it's good to see you.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then Proud with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
From back to Manchester here in New Hampshire where we're waiting for actual voting to take place. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Balance of Power on the radio and on TV. We thank you for joining us, Kaylee, it's great moment. We're going to do this every day from now on through the cycle, not just hearing Manchester, New Hampshire, but also Washington, DC.
And how lucky we are to have two hours of Balance of Power on both Bloomberg television and radio because it is a very important cycle. Even if it's one Joe that frankly, we might not have seen one like it, that's for sure. Considering we are now in the second contest state, the first in the nation primary, and we are having a very realistic conversation as to whether or not the primary race actually ends.
Yes, come to Mark correct. The departure of Ron De Santis late yesterday, which caught even his own staff by surprise, has many folks wondering if this is already over, whether Nikki Haley will make it to her home state of South Carolina, where currently Donald Trump holds a commanding lead.
And all of that to say that is with the support of perhaps the most powerful surrogate she could have in the state of New Hampshire, the Governor Christan Nunu, who isn't just someone who has endorsed her, but has been next to her on almost every single campaign stop she has made in recent days, has talked to people like us, really tried to be her surrogate. And he's very popular here in New Hampshire, and it may not prove to be enough.
Not a fan of Donald Trump, he was going to work with the candidate he thought could defeat Trump here the most sought after endorsement in New Hampshire, and we sat down with him for an important conversation here, Kaylee. A pretty remarkable moment to hear from the governor who's looking at the very same polls that we are, who knows when we'll climb this will be for his candidate. We sat down here at the table to spend time
now with Governor Christen n Inu. Let's listen, mine, Iowa picks corn, new Hampshire picks President.
I know someone who heard that before you do.
With that said, will New Hampshire pick the next president of the United States?
Oh? I hope, So, I hope.
So.
Look, obviously I'm one hundred and ten percent behind Nikki. She's the one that's earning it on the ground. She's the one with all the momentum. You know, Trump has his numbers, he's effectively the incumbent, but his numbers have been really stagnant. Nicki's the one that's been surging. She had a very good showing in Iowa right now, the I think she just has to show that she's building on that here. If she can win, that be amazing, Right.
It doesn't have to happen carry that kind of momentum into South Carolina into her home state with three or four weeks or something like that before the South Carolina primary even happens, and she obviously has a huge record of success running there. So no, I'm very hopeful that this is just this momentum is going to continue to build as we get into Super Tuesday.
But She's currently farther behind the former president in South Carolina than she is here in New Hampshire. So if she can't win here, how could she win there?
Well, it was campaigned in South Carolina yet, right, so that should be expected. He's the incumbent. She hasn't been there and has it really put a campaign on the ground there. I mean a little bit here and there. But it's Trump versus Haley. It is, so no one, no one should be surprised because the conversation isn't happening on the ground there. As the conversation happened in Iowa, her number sorts, as the conversations happening in New Hampshire,
her numbers sore. And as the conversation is going to happen in South Carolina, the sky's the limit for the former governor.
So winning New Hampshire is not necessarily required to.
No, definitely, were we saying back in November December that New Hampshire was an absolute win. Had to be an absolute win for someone other than Trump. No, No one's been ever been so that. I mean recently. Trump's trying to build that narrative effectively, but because he just wants to knock everyone out. But Nicki is the one that has knocked all these other candidates out of the race.
Well, you have said though a strong second could be in the offing. What does that look like to find a strong second?
You know, I think again, just showing a I think stronger performance than was in Iowa. That's the most important piece, right, and having less candidates in the race and defining it as a one on one race. But over the last few days, again with the moment and with the fact that she's doing the grassroots campaigning, she's going all across the stage, She's engaging with voters every which way. Trump flies in, does a rally they're not even very big
rallies actually, and then flies out of here. So he's kind of taking advantage of his role as the standard bearer, if you will, of the party for the last seven years. But she's the one that's earning it. And again her numbers are soaring and his are stagnant.
Well, but his numbers are roughly in the ballpark of about half of voters. He had more than half in Iowa, and he was pulling around half of voters in New Hampshire, the same ones that voted you into office on multiple occasions. If it's the Conservatives in Iowa and moderates and independence in New Hampshire and she can't get enough of either, what is the demographic that is supposed to elect her as president of the United States.
Well, again, let's let's start here. I magine if you're the former president and your own party, you can barely get fifty percent of the vote. That's why Trump's in trouble, right. So now that you have somebody new on the scene, kind of building that kind of momentum is huge. And the key is that it's a one on one race. So if Trump can barely hold fifty percent or keep them under fifty percent in a one on one race, well, the mass says that there's fifty one percent to Nikki Haley,
and that's what you need to win a state. Now. I don't think any of these early states are must wins for Hailey. I don't think that's ever been the case. They're possible, but they're not must wins. I think when you get to Super Tuesday, okay, now you really have to start winning states, obviously, but as long as she keeps building on that momentum, I think there's a lot of opportunity. She has money, she has resources, she has you know, knows how to win in New Hampshire, knows
how to win in South Carolina. So all the wind is at her back.
Any Custer set in this chair a short time go and said, we want you to write in Joe Biden. There's a write in campaign for the President of the Created States, which is remarkable. But she said, if not vote for Nicky, just don't vote for Trump. When you have a Democrat talking like this and Donald Trump across the streets saying Democrats are infiltrating the process here to vote for.
Democrats cannot vote Democrats cannot they vote, Well, you say, of course I had other stations. I mean, you guys get it, But I had other stations being like talking about democrats vote. Democrats are not voting in the Republican shrimery.
But this idea that Democrat leaning independents are going to make a difference here in New Hampshire, and there aren't enough New Hampshires to keep doing that across the country.
Well, independents have always been able to vote in as vote Democrat and Republican, and they're not independence in New Hampshire. The're undeclared, so you could have hard Trump supporters and hard Bernie Sanders socialists within the undeclared spectrum. This year, they're more likely to play on the Republican side because there's no nobody cares about the Democrats side. So that's all. So you're just going to see a lot more fun explay there. And they tend to want change, that's it.
They want the next new thing, they want the like there's the Republicans that are within that independent group really are Republicans, right, they understand Trump doesn't carry Republican values. Was he fiscally conservative? No, he had tax cuts that supposedly helped the economy, but then vote seven trillion dollars to do it. That's like saying to your family, Hey, look at this wonderful new house we're living in, and you just paid for it on a credit card. Right,
it's a falsehood. He doesn't believe in limited government, he believes in this kind of dictatorship. He doesn't believe in local control. He believes in Washington. So those are not Republican values. So I think a lot of the Republicans within that undeclared and those Conservatives are very much coming over to Nikky side.
Would it be fair Governor to say the Republican party that Trump represents is not your Republican party, not the Republican party of your father?
Put it, well, put it this way. I saw a bumper stick or the other that says, I don't vote Republican, I just vote Trump. He's his own entity. He doesn't define the Republican party at all.
But you have said because he if he were to be the Republican nominee, and because you are a Republican, you would support Yeah, think most people.
That shouldn't surprise anybody.
Yeah, even though he don't think he actually carries the values of.
The Republican Well, look, Biden, that's how bad Joe Biden is. I mean I always say that. I mean, this is what what has happened with inflation and all of that. The one thing I suppose that I'm hopeful again, I'm hopeful it's Nikki. I think she can do it. Any Republican would build a much better team than Joe Biden. I mean the team that Joe Biden has put in there, and with the rules and the regulations that are just
crushing families. They're just crushing local locals and state governments, and nothing can be developed, nothing can be built, nothing can move forward. So no, look, I'm excited about Nikki Haley being the nominee. That's why we're here in New Hampshire. This is where I don't want to say it can it all turns around, because she's already made the turnaround, right, It's already gone from thirteen candidates to a one on
one race that in itself is amazing. This is where again she just keeps adding kind of gasoline to that fire and keeps driving forward.
You talk about Trump team building. Of course, most of Trump's team has come out against him following the administration, many of them. Yeah, But so you know the quality of a team might only be as strong as long as you can keep it together. But I want to hear the argument, though, you're prepared to vote for Donald Trump if it's a Trump Biden election, you've made the polls.
You know most of America would. I mean, he beats bile, but barely might.
Keep that from happening. Why is Nicki Hayley, Let's talk about your candidate better for New Hampshire than Donald Trump?
So in the latest polls, Trump New Hampshire hasn't gone Republican in the general election about twenty years. And then the latest polls show that Trump gets crushed in New Hampshire against Biden. Nicky wins. Right, Nikki allows the Republicans in New Hampshire to win this state again in November, and that would happen in a lot of states across the country. So at the end of the day, you know, we can disagree on a policy here or there, but you got to win. You can't govern if you don't win.
And Nicki not just beats Biden here in New Hampshire, but would beat him across the country.
Interestingly, you didn't reach for a policy, you just want to pick a winner as your point.
Well, because you know what Nicki does. She makes sure that as I leave, we're going to get a Republican governor. And we're in Manchester right now they should have a Republican congressman. We haven't been able to win the seat, even though it's more Republican leaning. So because of that Trump brand, we've lost in twenty eighteen and twenty twenty and twenty twenty two. I'm so tired of losing, and I'm tired of losers, and I think we're just tired of that brand that just drags the rest of the
Republican Party down. Right, what's the point of scraping out a winning the presidency if you lose everything else, like he has time and time and time again. So you know, I want Republicans to win across the board, NICKI allows us.
To do that.
So do you think ultimately the biggest differentiator for you between the former president and governor Ambassador Haley is not necessarily their policy differences, but their ability to execute on it.
You've hit it, so, Nicki, when you're a governor, you don't get away with trying something and it doesn't happen all and you just let it go. Healthcare reform didn't happen. Securing the border and building the wall didn't happen, two of his biggest promises, right, being physically responsible didn't happen, you know, Decentralizing government, allowing states to have more control didn't happen. So, NICKI, as a governor, you're always held accountable. This is a twenty four to seven job for us.
She goes in with that mentality, and you know, she's going to ma the Senate. She's going to demand accountability, she's going to demand a balanced budget. Right, she's going to demand that government at its core level just read up to live up to its most basic expectations of getting something done and moving the ball forward. And she carries those conservative ideals to actually get it done. It's pretty cool.
We're closing argument though, is that Donald Trump is a bully, he's too old, he's not cognitively well.
That starts, we could be here all day, We'll bring the chaos.
Yeah, but to think that you would vote for him as the nominee, knowing that you'd be inviting all of that back says a lot about work.
But remember, if you don't in a binary race, if you don't vote for one, you're voting for the other. And I ain't voting for Joe Biden. I don't think anyone wants Joe Biden.
Joe Biden is that much worse than the chaos and the bullying that you framed those is what you're saying.
Joe Biden, get Joe Biden has to be let off a stage by his hand. God bless the guy. He's not there. There's no management there's no sense of control, there's no sense of any of this at all.
So you and you think it's about potentially the future team that Trump administration, a second Trump administration could build. Should Nicki Haley be part of that team? Do you think it would be likely?
Look, I'm just focused on Nicki Haley winning the primary right now. I mean, really, what Nikki wants to do in a future she could do anything. I mean, she's that amazing in that qualifying. The focus right now is showing America that Republicans are looking at an alternative. They might not want an alternative out of Biden. That's going to be a problem for Democrats. But on the Republican side, we're actually giving a shot here. We're not just saying
it's a fait to complete for Donald Trump. Nikki surging, a lot of folks are galvanizing behind her. We're gonna have record turnout here. I mean, think about Iowa right when people say, well, I guess I guess it's over, because fifty six thousand people in Iowa voted for Trump. That's like two percent of the population. Fifty six thousand people are going to determine the pick of the Republican nomination in America. I don't think so, no, no, no, no. So you gotta let this thing play out. I know
the media just wants to call it. It's a good talking point, but you gotta let this thing play out and make sure that the voters, not the media, not me, not Niki, but the voters. That's democracy. Let them go to the polls and decide what's gonna happen.
I wonder if the party he's trying to call this though, that Tim Scott endorsement. I realize endorsements don't mean a lot to a lot of people, but now timing was significant.
He could have waited for that.
Nobody cares about timso South Carolina, nobody cares about Tim Scott.
Nicki Haley doesn't care about Tim Scott. She pointed him to the Senate.
That's right, and that's why the endorsement right. So Tim Scott wouldn't be a senator without Nicki Eily. That's why what he did was so disrespectful. Again, why because the senator doesn't want to be held accountable. Nicky's gonna hold government accountable. That's an amazing opportunity for America. Trump didn't do any of that, right, So you know, I found it. I found the whole thing. You know, pretty disrespectful, but nobody really cares. He's a senator.
How about your future. You're happy you didn't run, and by that I mean for president and Senate. You made that pretty clear. Look at what's going on there now you could be in the middle of that. What's next for you?
Though?
I don't know one thing. Let me go back to NICKI a little bit. One thing Nicky and I both agree with.
No.
Really, it's public service, not a public career. Right. She wants term limits and again we don't have turmlit's in New Hampshire, but you self impose them. You gotta do the right thing. So you serve your state, or you serve your government, or you serve your community the best you can. And then you get back to you getting.
Back in the private sector. You'll have an issues campaign that you might follow.
No, no, no, I'm just looking forward to get back into the private sector. And that's what everybody should do. Service. Getting to get back to the private sector. You let new ideas and a new generation move forward.
But you're not taking twenty twenty eight fully off the table for myself.
No, I'm not running for anything in I have no plans. No, okay, yeah, sorry, sorry, don't mean to let you. I'll still be on here if you guys, maybe in a year, I'll send you a resume.
That sure, we'll take it up with youme. You're you think she's going to be the next president.
Oh that would be awesome. I mean it would be awesome.
And she can see too, of course.
I'm open to I'm open to everything. Look, I do have a twenty four to seven job. I mean I literally am governor as we're sitting here, and I will be governed for the next year. But there's there's a lot on the tape. I'm a business guy. I'm an economics guy. You know, I love that kind of stuff. I love helping businesses. I think businesses get way too
involved in politics and that sort of thing. And and you know, I'm a big believer when you're selling a product, focused on selling the product, don't get involved in the political wocaus them and all that kind of garbage. So we've helped a few companies here and there with that time.
Well, governor, we do Business and Economics center as well. That's kind of our thing here at Bloomberg. And if you actually look at the economic data, if you look at how businesses are faring, you have the stock market at a record high, you have inflation on a downward trajectory,
growth in the labor market still hanging in there. And I know you don't think that the Biden administration has been particularly successful, but is that not something that a future president and President Haley would want to replicate?
The most important, the most important data points are families. Let's look at national credit card debt. Let's look at what everybody owes right, the spending that has gone on, not just with the government, now with personal spending, and the fact that inflation is crushing folks, and this whole idea that the Fed is coming out and get a lower rates. I'm telling you the piper has to be paid at some point. I think we are in turn
for in store for an economic downturn. That's why I want an accountant like Nikki Haley to be President of the United States, because you need someone that can manage and understands these things at a fundamental issue. Donald Trump's an economic policy is I'll just keep borrowing money and you guys will have to pay it back sometime to keep everything floating, and everyone gives them a pass on that.
But at the end of the day, if you look at housing prices, if you look at the workforce issues that are happening across the country, limited services that are happening, the record high credit card debt, the fact that people are still struggling to put fuel in their homes, the fact that we're not energy dominant, which we should be. In Niki wants System one, bring it there.
Pumped a record amount of oil lash year, but.
We're not keeping up with what is needed. Yeah, you can pump a record them out, but again, if you're not keeping up with with what is needed, you have supply chain issues that creates energy at the heart is at the heart of inflation. Inflation is created by one thing, right, government prints and borrows too much money. That's it, that's all. It causes inflation. But the second biggest issue around that
is energy. We could be energy dominant, which allows products to go from A to B much quicker, parks to be created a lot cheaper, and at the end of the day, inflation is the worst tax on low income families you can imagine because a wealthy family can handle inflation. I might pinch us a little bit, but we'll be okay. Low income families are getting crushed. They can't take their family to McDonald's for less than thirty five bucks. That's crazy.
That is absolutely crazy. So it's those on the ground issues. Stock market Okay, fine, that could be inflated, whatever it might be. These kind of big ticket items that might be talked about the press, But go out there and talk to these families. They can't find housing. They're getting because you can't build it. Why because it costs so much just to build housing, and when you do, it's twenty five hundred dollars a month for a one bedroom apartment.
These are the kitchen table issues. Childcare. Nikki was at a childcare center this past week. Families can barely afford childcare, and one of the reasons is we can't find childcare workers. So again, you got to have the education system to create the infrastructure fuel for all these issues. So you can talk about big ticket items here, but what's happening on the ground in America right now is very very different.
I know you've got a lot of families figuring out when to fill up the oil tank right now, right here in the Amy's outside this morning. It's a very real thing.
People on fixed income. You know, let's talk about the Social security issue. Social Security is going bankrupt law. There is a twenty two twenty three percent cut and benefits coming in about ten years. That's in the law. Trump says that we'll do nothing to stop it. Right, I'm not going to stop it. Nicki's the only one that has a way to stop the benefits from being cut and allowing everyone to keep the benefits that they've been promised. But she's the only one willing to engage on that issue.
That's a huge issue. If you're a senior, you should be scared to death that.
Donald tell I'm going to let you mention that, because there's an ad running that the Trump campaign has that's got my face in it talking to Nicki Haley about social Security. It's remarkable. The claims in the ad go far beyond what she said. This is a big deal for an aging population New Hampshire, never mind the rest
of the country. Does she need to put a finer point on that policy and say this will be the age and this is what we're going to tell twenty one year olds or twenty year olds when it comes time for them to start.
Sure.
So look, I think she's been talking about it. I think again the Trump adds and all the negativity and the lies and everything. He just says whatever he wants to say, just to bash on Nikki. But at the end of the day, it's his complacency on Social Security that allows it to go bankrupt. He's effectively acknowledged it
and that cut is coming. And again, if you're a senior, you should be scared to death that you'd be potentially getting behind Donald Trump when he says the cuts come in, there's nothing you can do about it.
He has that in common with Joe Biden, doesn't That's right, there.
Were both nobody both fans. But it is going backrupt. This isn't like, oh it might it might not. It is going bankrupt, that cuts are coming. Someone like Nikki Haley has to get in there to show how to maintain those benefits, maintain those services for the elderly, and again allow the system to be solvent. Once again, it can be done. It's just good math. And again it's also holding Congress accountable so they do their job as well.
Maybe you should have run. You could have brought that issue.
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I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines. It's tour to forced conversation.
There, Killie.
We covered a lot of ground in a conversation that you're not going to hear anywhere else, which is why it was featured today in the Boston Globe and the New York Times. Really fascinating to try to get inside his head and understand his real expectations. I don't know how you quantify a strong second.
He didn't seem to want to get specific with what a strong second would mean either. I just thought it was so interesting to hear him tell us after all of the hype about New Hampshire being Nicki Hayley's best chance to upset the front runner, to say that she doesn't have to win here.
Isn't that something?
And I just wonder if that is an argument that Rick and Jeanie Yeah, also.
By Yeah let's bring the panel back and Rick Davis and Jeanie Sanzano with us at the table here. What's your thought on that? Genie really really gaming expectations now, although it's hard to even really figure out, as we just heard, where the governor sets the bar.
Yeah, that's right. He I was just thinking watching your interview. Gosh, remember when we thought he might run, and that is an example as to why.
So many repplicants.
Yeah, he's glad he didn't. I think some Republicans wish he did. You know, it is so it is so hard. I think looking at those polls, he wants to lower expectations so that she can at least meet them. You know, I've heard people say everything from three to seven points she can lose by. But you know, my view has always been winning New Hampshire is losing for Nicki Haley because Donald Trump has successfully, I think made her the poster child of the never trumpers.
He talks about her.
As the candidate of globalists, the candidates of the media, the candidate of the Democrats. A vote for her as a vote for Joe Biden. So even if she was to, you know, just beat expectations and win he is going to make it really, really difficult for her to go down to South Carolina with those demographics and to really push this thing up.
So, Rick, is this a lose lose situation for Nicki Haley?
No?
I think she could only win, right. I mean, look, she's got it down to a two person rates. There is a ticket out of New Hampshire regardless if you beat Donald Trump. And remember he's won one caucus with fifty thousand people. That does not speak for the entire Republican Party, including independence and non alliance who do participate as Republicans here in New Hampshire. And so the thing that I always get a kick out of is Donald Trump makes a big deal about this issue of Nikki
having independent support here, but he does too. Yes, thirty eight percent of his ballot, that fifty percent is contributed by thirty eight percent independent voters. So it's look, these are the rules of the road. Everybody knows it when they sign in to run here, and it's historically always been a factor as much as forty percent maybe more this time of the vote tomorrow will be these unaligned voters who become Republicans at least for the day and that's what a good recruiting mechanism.
Just quickly, we're going to hear from Congressoman any Custer in just a moment. Genie's talking about lowering expectations. You've been part of this. Is that what you do on the eve of her winning, you try to make this look like a bigger deal than it would be otherwise. Do they think they're going to win and they're telling us a strong second.
Yeah, there's great participation in both the media and the campaigns on expectation.
Media want to create high expectations.
Look at you got to really knock the ball over the fence, right, No, I can get on second base and that's a win for me.
So yeah, is there a lot yes work in the reft. Okay, We're going to stick with Rick and Jeanie because I want to hear from you what the Democrats are doing or not doing. We haven't even mentioned Dean Phillips yet. And it's a conversation we had with Congresswoman Any Custer, Democrat here in New Hampshire from the second district, who's driving a write in campaign for the president. After the DNC got in this confused mess as the President put
South Carolina ahead in the line. Here's Congresswoman any Custer.
We want to make sure that when voters turn out on Tuesday, that they know they can write in Joe Biden's name. Just go to the bottom of the ballot. Luckily, it's easy to spell, and they can vote for Joe Biden in the first presidential primary here in New Hampshire.
Are you setting expectations on a turnout for Joe Biden? Do you need to reach a certain threshold? What if he gets sixty percent? Is that a bad look?
Well, here's the thing. I want to make sure he wins. But I think it's going to be impressive, and I think it's going to send him into the next contests and into this primary season with a strong foundation. I want to make sure that people understand we support Joe Biden for a second term. We're proud of the work that he's done domestically, and we're very grateful for his leadership on the world stage.
So you're making a statement here. Your delegates must be frustrated, though. Will you make an effort to recognize your delegates at the convention when Democrats meet later this year.
Sure, I think if it goes well, on Tuesday. That won't be any problem at all. We've been through this before. Other contests have about whether their delegates will be seated. Look most New Hampshire voters and even the most engaged people who have been through many, many campaigns. I've been doing this since I was sixteen years old. We're not hung up on delegate selection and all of that. We want to make sure that the voters are heard.
And part of the.
History of the New Hampshire Primary is that it came into being so that voters could speak directly on their preference for president and not have these decisions be made in backdoor business rooms where you know, pundits get together and make these choices.
Would have been nice for the president to make a visit, maybe hold a rally or something.
Wouldn't that well, I have to laugh.
We've had I think we're up to ten cabinet visits in the last month or so for last week, so I think they're here in spirit.
So that's what you're trying to accomplish. What's Dean Phillips trying to accomplish? Have you spoken to him as he asked you for your support?
He's asked me for my advice. I told him I thought it was ill advised, not well timed. He got in on literally the very last day, and frankly, and I mean this kindly, I think it's unimpressive in terms of the campaign that he put together. As I said, I've been doing this for fifty years. I've seen what it takes. I was in on the ground floor with Joe bi with Barack Obama. He used to say, I
was on board before Michelle was on board. And I've seen what it looks like to do dozens of house parties and town hall meetings and build that grassroots campaign that's going to deliver the vote on Tuesday.
He says he grew up here, even though how to shoot guns as a kid in New Hampshire. What doesn't he understand about the Granite State.
I don't think he understands much. I think that what he's missing is that, like other parts of the country, we care to learn and vet a candidate, and he really hasn't put in the time or built the support. We turn to our friends, our neighbors, our colleagues to see who who is getting support. You're watching this now on the Republican side with Nikki Haley with our Governor
Chris Sanunu. We care a lot about who are the surrogates that are getting behind these candidates, and I don't think he's built the support that would be a substantial campaign, a serious campaign.
Some of you heard Donald Trump last night. He says Democrats are going to vote in this primary to infiltrate the process. That is, of course not possible. Not to do you wish he was right?
Well, look, I think there are many undeclared voters we call them here in New Hampshire. They're not registered Democrat or Republican. They're making the decision right now whether to take a Democratic ballot and write in Joe Biden or whether to take a Republican ballot and vote for Nicki Haley. But the message that they're delivering is the same. On Tuesday, New Hampshire voters do not want Donald Trump to have a second term. They think that he's not fit to be the president United States.
Again, that's fascinating. So you're comfortable with people doing either as long as I think.
People should do what they feel most comfortable doing. I voted for Joe Biden, and I'm encouraging people to support Joe Biden for a second term. But there will be people who will choose to vote in the Republican primary to deliver that message, that anti Trump message by voting for Nikki Haley. And you know, one part of this story that they understand very well. I was one of the last people evacuated from the capital on January sixth,
twenty twenty one, and they've heard this story. And three weeks ago they saw the video footage that it was only thirty seconds from when I was evacuated to win. Those insurrectionists are in that hallway hunting for us, trying to disrupt the election. And New Hampshire voters know full well that it was Donald Trump that instigated that attack on our government and that was trying to overthrow overturn
the results of the election. So I think the sentiment is very strong, and I hope the message will be sent on both sides of the ticket that Donald Trump is not fit for another term.
Congresswoman Annie Custer, the Democrat from New Hampshire, talking with us here on Bloomberg Balance of Power in Manchester, New Hampshire. Thanks for joining us. I'm Joe Matthew in a quick swing here from Jeanie Shanzano as a Democrat. Is Dean Phillips the spoiler the problem that she frames him? Or should more Democrats have run?
You know, there's twenty one people on this ballot, including our old favorite paper boy Love Prince, who's not there.
Joe Biden.
I'm theay, we love him, but you know, Joe Biden, it's a write and that's tough to win. I think Joe Biden is running this Rose Garden strategy. He really needs to get out there. Bernie Sanders is right face the economic challenges people are confronting in New Hampshire and elsewhere.
Is this risky though? What if, like we just said, what if Dean Phillips beats the president because of this hokey writing camp?
Yeah, I mean Dean Phillips has a shot, but he's not going to go anywhere out of this except maybe to No Labels.
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Live from the first in the Nation primary state. Thanks for being with us on Balance of Power here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm Joe Matthew live in Manchester alongside Kaylee Lines as we try to figure out what's going to happen twenty four hours from now. Kayley, A big raft of poles dropped this morning, and it's not just the spread that we're looking at, it's the incredible
consistency between these poles. Gregory Cordy made the point earlier in the broadcast that this seems to have and the dicenes have been cast months ago, we haven't seen much motion, certainly since Chris Christy dropped out of the race, the thought being that this might look like the way the results due tomorrow.
Well, even the polling that was showing Haley in single digits behind former President Trump just weeks ago CNN, for example,
is now showing her double digits. That's important behind him nineteen points spread in the Suffolk University Boston Globe poll, eighteen points spread when it comes to Monmouth and the Washington Post, and in the latest Emerson College polling that came out yesterday, Joe fifty percent planned to support Trump, thirty five percent support Nikki Haley, and then eight percent support Ron DeSantis, who, of course, as of yesterday afternoon, is no longer in this race as he dropped and
endorsed Trump.
So was that the worst timing ever? Is a question for Nicky Haley supporters because those votes aren't going to Nicky, They're going to Trump from the DeSantis camp.
So goes the thinking. But let's get the opinion now, Spencer Kimball, the Emerson College polling director. So as I said, Spencer, thank you so much for joining us here in Manchester. In our studio, eight percent support for Ron de Santis. Where does that eight percent go?
So that conventional wisdom is that he's in the same lane as Trump, and he'll go into Trump's lane, But our polling indicates that those voters are more split. There was a reason why they weren't voting for Trump and they were voting for DeSantis. And it looks like about forty forty five percent would actually vote for Haley and she might actually pick up a few votes there. Remember when Christie dropped out of the race, she didn't pick
up all twelve of those points. She only picked up six or seven, and so same thing will probably happen with the DeSantis vote.
What's it like as a polster when you settle on your numbers and you look around you see everyone else got almost the same numbers. This is pretty unusual, it.
Is It is usually you see a range of scores with our polls, and then it's going to fall within that range. But we kind of saw this happening in Iowa as well. These numbers were all baked together in that low fifties, and that's what we saw with Trump. A little bit of a surprise with DeSantis. We'll see here in New Hampshire we're also seeing Trump in that low fifties. If those numbers hold or were those undecided, break for Haley potentially making a little closer.
Well in New Hampshire consistently is a surprise. It's just a question of whether or not everybody's going to be surprised this time around, when it seems that everyone feels an inevitability of Trump ultimately, if not outright winning the state, it's going to be very tight. And ultimately, it seems according to everyone Joe and I have talked to here in recent days that everybody presumes he's going to be
the Republican nominee. And part of that is not just the way that he's polling in terms of the headline figures of how much support he has. It's the enthusiasm of the people who say they are voting for him. What have you seen in your data on that?
Yeah, So we ask voters, what's the chances you're going to change your mind or you're going to stick with your candidate? And the Trump vote has been between seventy five and ninety percent sticking with Trump right now it's at ninety be fed back in August it's at seventy five, so it's only been growing. Hailey, on the other hand, she's at eighty percent now, but she was at fifty so her vote has locked in. Over the last couple
of weeks, we saw his numbers drop. His voters were locked in, and in our last poll we saw fifty percent were like, hey, we might switch, and I bet you the governor saw that as well and decided maybe it's time to get out of this.
We've learned and this is from a Monmouth poll out today, you might have found this very same thing. Spencer. Forty seven percent of potential Republican primary voters are not registered Republicans. This this is the strange, mysterious independent voter that we keep hearing about forty seven percent of potential Republican primary voters. What does that mean for Nicky Haley in terms of a potential surprise tomorrow?
She needs more.
She needs sixty percent independent votes because she's losing the Republicans. So these are registered independents in New Hampshi. They're called undeclared declares, and we have registered Republicans. Normally, in a party primary, sixty percent of Republicans, forty percent will be independents. And what we're seeing here is it more of a
fifty five to forty five. What she needs is to flip the script and get actually a larger percentage of independence to come out like sixty percent and only have forty percent of Republicans vote in this primary.
So high turnout maybe what she needs here if she's going to eke something out, and she's just a question of how high that turnout will be.
The Victoria State told us we'd have a record, which I don't understand why I'm around Manchester right now.
Yeah, it feels quieter than at least I would have anticipated. Joe really hyped it up to me before we came here.
In I told this whole story about the carnival that comes with the New Hampshire primary. We can't get arrested out on Elm Street.
I agree, it's a different atmosphere this time around than I've seen in my twenty years of studying these elections. But remember New Hampshire takes their primary very seriously, and the Democrats have moved away from being first in the nation and the reason why they might come out is to make the statement that they want to stay. Remember twenty twenty eight is coming. Are they going to stay first in the nation or are they going to lose
out to South Carolina. So that's the reason I think you could see a tremendous turnout is more of the pride of their state. And you'll see it on the Democratic side as well, even though there's really not a contest.
Well, and we know the voters in New Hampshire like to hear from these candidates as much as they possibly can. They could have heard more from Nicki Haley had she actually decided to partake in debates this week, which she did not is that having an impact on how she's pulling as we really approach the endgame here.
Well, we were thinking the same thing, and so we asked the voters, what do you think about her skipping the debates? And for seventy five percent they said it didn't matter. Now we asked them about Trump skipping all of the debates, and for sixty percent of them it didn't matter, and for the ones that it mattered are kind of split. I was thinking, you got a debate just for a game changer. You came out of Iowa without that momentum. You needed some sort of focusing event
during this week, and she didn't really have that. And unfortunately in her campaign, the focusing event seemed to be the endorsements of Trump by some of her opponents, Tim Scott and he got to Santis, and so that's not what she needed to go into the primary.
We'll see if it plays out for her, though.
Well, especially, you've done a great job here at Emerson. I went to Emerson College way before there was a polling institute there, and you've really put yourself on the map here in a great way. Do great work, and we've really enjoyed following the data. Are you ready for the longest general election campaign of your life?
Well, yes, we're looking forward to studying the election. But remember we got primaries in Ohio and California. There's other races. There's a New York third district race that people are interested in. So yes, we have presidential primary politics.
We'll keep it on a reason. We would love to stay in touch with you, even being New Hampshire. And I appreciate you being with us today.
My pleasure.
It's great to be with you.
Stuff Spencer Kimball with us from Emerson College polling. These numbers look pretty stubborn right now, Kayley.
Yeah, and they don't look great if you're Nikki Haley or her supporters. And limited times to change minds here, Joe, and the polls open in just about sixteen short hours.
Ye,