You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcast.
Jack Fitzpatrick here from Bloomberg Government, sitting in for Joe Matthew today. A whole lot to talk about, and we will talk to our panel a little later, Rick Davis and Genie she and Zano about that big news that just broke on your Bloomberg terminal about Harvard President Claudine Gay resigning. If you saw the clips of her congressional
hearing last month, you know why. But first, I'm here in the studio with Stephanie Lai, national politics reporter here at Bloomberg, and there are so many things to talk about. We're in the right month to talk about the new Hampshire and Iowa primaries. Things are getting rolling. It is a presidential election year. It is officially twenty twenty four.
Maybe the first thing I want to touch on with you is two ballot challenges to among others, but Colorado and in case our listeners missed it, over the holiday's main have moved to take President Trump off the primary ballot over the constitutional measure that says you cannot be on the ballot if you have engaged in insurrection. He
is banking on the Supreme Court to block that from happening. Stephanie, I'm curious about the political angle of you know, it seems like Trump is using this, is banking on this as a motivating issue for his supporters. It's so unusual. I'm curious when you can call this a trend. There's two states. I mean, where does this fit into? One is this a real threat for president former President Trump in the primary? And two how is he playing it?
Certainly? So, I mean, I guess to start, the cases that we're seeing right now are just a handful of ones that are going to be continuing to come down. And so what we see, how we see this Supreme Court respond is really going to determine how the rest of twenty twenty four plays out. I guess on one hand, you know, Trump's team has been really great at politicizing
these legal issues that he continues to face. Whenever, you know, an indictment had come down, we had seen them really make the point that you know, Washington Democrats, everyone's out to get him. They're trying to stop him, and they've been using this to really energize his base because their belief is that they have the votes to really win. But it's just a matter of getting people to come out and having these legal cases continue to make news to put him, you know, in front of TVs all
day for you know, months on end. It really just does help his political case.
Well, he is ahead, but I want to get into where he's ahead, how much he's ahead among early states. Do you have a view on where the most legitimate challenges coming from. There's been so much back and forth in New Hampshire on it. We'll get into the details of Chris Snunu saying Chris Christy should drop out to sort of make room for Nikki Haley and New Hampshire. Is it New Hampshire? Is it Ronda Santis's push in Iowa? Is there a credit threat in the Republican primary anywhere to Donald Trump?
You know, at this moment, in terms of the four early voting states that we've really been looking into, it doesn't really seem like these competitors have made much leeway in trying to cut off his momentum. You know, he leads by about twenty five to thirty percentage points in all of these states. The latest Iowa des Moin Register poll showed that he had over fifty percent of the
support from likely caucus goers. And so the way that DeSantis has tried to bet big on Iowa, it really makes it seem like they're trying to cut him off early. You know. Meanwhile, Nikki Haley's trying to make the argument that in New Hampshire and South Carolina she can really make leeway, and you know, polling shows that she's within
striking distance to Trump. So if anything, you know, I don't think we're going to see it very early on, but there is a chance will see some movement, likely after New Hampshire, maybe South Carolina.
All right, Well after New Hampshire. I'm curious about New Hampshire because, as you said, if you look at polling averages, if you look at a lot of polls, solid lead for Donald Trump. We are going to talk in a little bit a few minutes to Chris Galdieri out of Saint Anselm College, which has probably one of the best looking polls lately for Nikki Hayley forty four to thirty down fourteen points. I think that plays into the call by New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu for Chris Christy to
drop out. In that poll, Christy got twelve percent. It doesn't entirely make up the whole difference. I mean, it seems we're getting close enough, obviously to these early primaries, so there's pressure to consolidate. I mean, does that make a difference. Is this a matter of especially in New Hampshire, Is this a matter of Trump opponents not consolidating quickly enough, or is it just an insurmountable lead for Trump at this point.
No. I think you have a really interesting point there, and it's something that political operatives have been telling us for months that you know, with this wide field, it's been almost impossible to cut away at Trump's lead because there's so many different directions that voters can and go towards.
And so you know, as you point out, maybe there is a chance that in New Hampshire we see some sort of movement that gives Nicki Haley the momentum to make the argument that she is a viable alternative to Trump. But I think the question after these early voting states is whether or not she has enough support in the Super Tuesday States everything else in order to get enough delegates to get her that nomination.
Certainly an interesting point how pivotal New Hampshire is for Nicki Haley. If she can't pull off a miracle there, what happens next? Stephanie Lai, national politics reporter with Bloomberg here, thank you so much for joining us. We're going to bring in Chris Galdieri, Saint Anselm College professor in New Hampshire. They've got to pull out recently just came out. It was conducted December eighteenth and nineteenth in New Hampshire. Professor Galdieri,
thank you so much for joining us. Top line takeaways here a forty four to thirty lead Trump, Nikki Hayley, and I'm really interested on your on your take on is there consolidating that can be done among the the anti Trump candidates, the non Trump candidates. Is there a move to be made or is there any evidence that this cake is baked? And a fourteen point lead is very solid for Trump and there's not going to be
much more movement. Do you see an opportunity for a challenger in these pulling numbers?
I think there is an opportunity, but I think it's probably a very narrow one. You know, when the greatest news your campaign has had all year is that you're only down by fourteen points, you know that that's not necessarily the sign of of a you know, John McCain style upset in the offing. That said, if it's going to happen anywhere, it's probably going to happen here. New Hampshire is a state that has had a rocky relationship between Trump and the Republican establishments such as it is
in the state. It's a state that Trump uh tried mightily to carry in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty and failed both times. And you know, I think, you know, you do have a lot of Republicans in the party
who have never made their peace with Trump. That said, you know, I'm not sure all of the non Trump vote comes from the same place, by which I mean, you know, we've talked a lot about Chris Christy and should he drop out, But I think the folks who are supporting Christy are the same sorts of folks who you know, voted for Bill Weld, remember him four years
ago when he challenged Trump in the primary. These are folks who are like the really dedicated never trumpers, and I think the folks supporting folks like Haley are more like the Republicans who, well, they were okay with the tax cuts and they were thrilled with the judges. But do we really want another four years of that? Wouldn't it be nicer to have somebody else? And so I'm not sure that those two groups necessarily come together.
So that sounds like a real limit on the ability of Nicki Haley to get Chris Christie's votes. I mean, I can't ask you to give me a percentage if Chris Christy drops out, how much goes to Nicki Haley? But does it go somewhere else? Is it clear who specifically benefits if Christy were to drop out, which, of course I'm raising because of Christin Nunu's push to get him to drop.
Out, right, And there's really no logical place. I mean, I guess maybe some of those folks do go to Haley if they see her as the strongest opponent. But I think one of the stumbling blocks for this suggestion that Christy should drop out and endorse Haley is you know, I think Christy is pretty dedicated never Trumper at this point, and I think his concern if he were to drop out and endorse someone else is is what if that candidate loses, are they willing to endorse Trump and support Trump?
And I think that would be a deal breaker for him. And we've had lots of indications from Haley that, you know, she's not going to go all the way to the extent of not supporting Trump if he does wind up with the nomination this time around. I think she's made noises about being willing to pardon him for various offenses as well. You know, these these aren't the sorts of things you say if you're prepared to throw the guy
overboard if if you lose to him. So I just I think bringing those those different groups of you know, never Trump Republicans and luke warm on Trump Republicans and pro Haley Republicans, it's just, you know, it's it's not as straightforward as simply Okay, Christy has twelve, we had his twelve to Haley's thirty. Suddenly we've got a forty four to forty two race.
Tell me a little more about the identity of the new Hampshire Republican primary voter specifically, I'm thinking of somewhat of a libertarian bent. But I mean you touched on it with Trump's history there, What do we learn about Trump's place or any candidate's place in the broader Republican field based specifically on this New Hampshire Republican primary electorate.
Yeah.
New Hampshire Republicans are are really something of an outlier in the national party these days. As you said, the party has a real libertarian bent to it. You see that on issues like abortion, you see that on issues like labor unions. You see this on issues like same sex marriage and transgender rights and that sort of thing.
It's not that the Republican Party here is overwhelmingly in favor of those things, but you have enough Republicans who, for instance, are pro choice or who oppose right to work laws, who are supportive of transgender rights that it makes you know, you know, sort of wholesale culture warring that you might see in other states Republican parties. It
makes it a lot harder to pull off here. The folks here who are Republicans, a lot of them, tend to be much more in the sort of old guard Yankee Republican mold than they are with, you know, rhetorical bomb throwing, culture warring sorts of Republicans that you see increasingly in other parts of the country these days.
Well, it may not be a perfect case study for obvious reasons on the impact if there is an impact of Nikki Hayley's comments, her back and forth on the Confederacy the cause of the Civil War, first not mentioning slavery and then saying, of course slavery was the issue, the primary issue. The st Ansel poll was conducted before
that back and forth. I mean, just under with your understanding of the voters, the numbers at play there, would you expect her to take much of a hit among New Hampshire Republican primary voters based on that flubb.
I think there's a little bit of a hit. I think she has time to recover. I think what was dangerous about that for her is that, you know, this is a question everybody knows the answer to. It's slavery. Homer Simpson knows the answer to that question. If you remember the episode where he was helping up who pass the citizenship test to not say slavery and then try and say, oh, well, it was the federal government overstepping its bounds and everything. Nobody believes that she believes that.
So I think it looked like pandering. It looked like pandering to an audience that isn't really present here but might be more of a factor in subsequent contests. And I think it it just sort of you know, a big part of her pitch has been, look, I'm a truth teller. I'm gonna be a straight shooter with you, that sort of thing, and then to completely flub what caused the Civil War is just, you know, not a great look.
That said.
I think this is probably something that reporters cared about more than voters. And you know, my guess is that when people finally vote three weeks from today, that there will not be a whole lot of voters who you know, go into the voting booth and they're prepared to fill in the circle for Nicki Haley and say, oh but wait, she said something silly about the Civil War back in December. I think that voter is is you know, one guy named Phil.
Real quick before we have to go, do you do? Can you make a prediction yet? Who's the real front runner in New Hampshire.
I think the real front runner is still Donald Trump, you know. And I say that because as much as we've had some good polls for Haley, the good polls have heard, you know, down by fourteen points. We haven't seen a poll that has her in the lead. We haven't seen I don't think we've seen a poll that has her within single digits of Trump. So I think the challenge for her is can she get herself into
first place? And if she can't get herself into first place, can she get the kind of really close second place finish.
When the good news is that you are down fourteen it's not very good news. We're gonna keep it going. In just a minute, with Rick Davis and Jeanie she and Zano on our panel. This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Harvard President Claudine Gay will resign this afternoon the latest from the Harvard Crimson saying it will be the shortest presidency in the university's history. And of course this is really not limited to a Harvard story, a campus politics story. This I think, and we'll see what the panel thinks, but I think clearly comes on the heels of last month exchange in Congress pressed by Congresswoman Elise Stephanic on whether calling for a quote unquote intifada violated the campus's
anti harassment policy. It was a question that several presidents of universities were not prepared for, clearly, including Claudine Gay. Let's go to the panel, Rick Davis and Genie she and Zano here for some insights on what seems to be to me a bit of a proxy for the difficulty of handling the politics of the Israel Hamas war and the US's deep interest in it. That also seems
pretty tough for President Biden. Rick Davis, let's start with you, what should we read into given the fact that somebody's losing their job over the difficulty of answering questions about not only this conflict, but anti Semitism in the US. US voters support for different factions. This to me, this seems to spell bad news for President Biden because people are in serious trouble. But what what is your takeaway in the broader picture with today's news about Claudine Gay.
Yeah, I think you make a good point about how does all this roll up to politics on a national level. We're in the middle of a presidential campaign. It is the season, and and I think with with with the point you make about President Biden. You know, he has a lot at risk because the coalition of Democrats that make up the Democratic Party is is probably more adversely affected by what's going on in the Middle East right
now than the Republicans are. Republicans generally are are aligned with their support for Israel, right and so so once you get sort of straight on that, there's not a lot of complication. Democrats, however, have a much different, much more diverse constituency, and we see it in places like Michigan with a very large air population Muslim population that are going to affect the potential outcomes of a Michigan election. Uh as it relates to as it relates to President Biden,
and and it's a key swing state. Harvard clearly a bastion of Democratic liberalism within the Biden administration.
Uh.
And so when when when something controversial happens there, it reverberates through that administration. And and and I think Clauding Gay had a lot of other problems besides her very poor uh appearance at the House of Representatives before the holidays.
Uh.
But ultimately that is the stone that that that broke the window. And and I think it shows us that this is still a very salient situation, very salient issue with with American opinion makers but also voters.
Genie shen Zano, I have to ask you about especially the pressure from from both sides, on both sides of the issue for President Biden in particular because it and will analyze polling over time on exactly how motivating it is as an issue for pro Israel voters, for I think younger Democrats who are calling for not only a ceasefire, but in some cases the US blocking off aid to Israel.
Where does this leave President Biden? And is he in an impossible position because of the pressure coming from multiple angles?
You know, I'm not sure I would join together her decision to resign under pressure obviously, as you talked about so much with President Biden. You know, I look at this is specific to what was happening with Claudine Gay. You know, she did survive her really out of touch performance before Congress, her equally out of touch emails to the student body, but in the end she lost support
amongst the faculty, amongst administrators, and importantly students. Some of the best reporting on this story have come from Harvard students, so kudos to them and the calls over the last few days for her resign in the wake of this plagiarism allegation, and it wasn't just one or two, it
was multiple. And you have students who have just gone through finals, they have signed these Harvard Honors Code with their faculty, and then to hear over and over again that the leader of the academy herself is charged with plagiarism became too much for Harvard to bear. So, you know, this to me is specific to Claudine Gay, to you know, the out of touch experience with Congress, certainly, but essentially to what was hap happening behind the scenes at Harvard
as she was charged with these allegations. President Biden has a separate issue, which is the issue of support for hamas which has been a long standing issue on the Democratic side with liberals, and Rick Rightley talked about Michigan that is going to be something he has to contend with. At this point, I'm not certain we can say it will impacting at the poling booth because history shows very few Americans vote on the basis of foreign policy. The question of my mind is is there enough to change
support in a critical state like Michigan. I think that's a fair question, and I think we have seen the president. He went out on a limb to call out Benjamin and Yahoo. He has not been happy with how the Prime Minister has handled himself. So I think he is responding to some of that already, and we'll have to take a wait and see attitude. If liberals hold this against him and decide to vote third party or just stay home, which in a state like Michigan would impact him.
Well, let's talk. Let's take a broader look at President Biden's struggles. Here is very tough position. Looking at the USA Today Suffolk University poll that just came out today published this morning, President Biden currently has support from sixty three percent of black voters. That compares to eighty seven percent in twenty twenty. He actually trails Trump in this poll by five percentage points. He won by a thirty three point margin in twenty twenty. I'm looking at young voters.
This poll has Trump ahead among voters under thirty five nationally thirty seven to thirty three percent, a narrow lead. That is taking twenty twenty numbers and flipping them on their heads in some cases. Genie, I don't know if we can say this is indicative of every poll that's going to come out and every crosstab that shows us where he stands with young voters and non white voters.
But this looks like a very very bad position. How much work does President Biden have to do among black voters, among Hispanic voters, and among young voters.
It is so important. This is what I think is the most critical aspect of what's coming down the pipe for him over the next year. Donald Trump in particular, but the Republican coalition more broadly has been making great strides. The group I look at most often our Latinos. You add to that, African Americans, you add to that, as you mentioned, young people. Joe Biden, any Democrat cannot win if Republicans are making the games Trump has with that group.
I mean, I think what we are starting to see, quite frankly, is a realignment of the parties and you are seeing a populist group forming and there are Latinos, African Americans and young people part of that on the Republican side. If that keeps up, that's a problem for the Democrats. And you know, it reminds me remember eight twelve when Republicans lost, they did this great you know piece looking back, what do we have to do now? We have to make up with Latinos. That was the
big takeaway from that. And nobody thought Donald Trump, of all people, would do that with his comments on undocumented immogrants, and yet he has. We've known that's a problem for Democrats and it continues to be. And this poll is so important out of USA today showcasing just that.
Rick, Sorry to put you in a tough position, but what's the twenty second version of what Donald Trump did to improve his standing with black, Hispanic and young voters.
You know, look, he's not Joe Biden. I mean, Joe Biden's the issue here, not anything Donald Trump did. And Joe Biden has not done enough to create opportunity for these young voters. The economy is everything to them, and it's been, you know, really bad for the entire term of his presidency. In this poll, there's some optimism to be had but for the Biden people, but they've got a long road.
To You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Twenty twenty four means election year is officially upon us. We're now just over eleven months away from November, when voters will head into the booth to decide who they want to be president of the United States. Of course, a lot could happen between now and then. We do still have to get through the Republican primary race. Even though Donald Trump at this point is seen as the presumptive Republican nominee and incumbent President Joe Biden the presumptive
Democratic nominee. And yet when you look at polling, they consistently showed that US voters would not like to see the twenty twenty rematch that is taking shape here. If they want someone else that is in Biden or Trump. And then also polling continually shows that the income a president is dealing with a bit of an approval problem as he heads into this election year. We want to get more on that now, and please to say, joining me here in our DC studio is Mohammed Yunis, who
is the editor in chief of Gallup. Mohammed, great to see you, Happy new year, to you new year. I'm not sure that President Biden is feeling particularly happy as he comes into this new year, knowing he ended last year twenty twenty three, according to Gallups figures, with an approval reading of just thirty nine percent. Can you give us some context around that number, which quite low?
It is quite low.
It's a couple points higher than his previous reading. But I think the real context is compared to every other president in modern history who has sought reelection, he's far
behind where they were traditionally speaking. What we've seen in our numbers is that a president going into a reelection campaign at that fifty point mark is a really critical number to be at, and obviously President Biden is far behind that, but he's also significantly behind where Barack Obama was and where Donald Trump was, which is pretty important to note.
I think joy the Trump campaign, there was.
So much focus on how low and steady the number stayed, and President Biden right now is behind where President Trump was.
Well, and you talk about the number staying low and being pretty steady steady, isn't that the case with Biden? I mean, he's been in and around that kind of forty percent figure or below for some time now, and it doesn't seem like that has that needle has moved to any real degree at all.
It hasn't.
He started off like most presidents do in a honeymoon phase. He has that fifty seven percent approval, which is pretty high for in our era. Another thing, Kaylee, to always keep in mind with these numbers specifically, is we are in what it truly is a hyperpartisan era. So since President Obama, the difference between people's views on the president and how closely it's tied to their party ID is stronger than ever. So presidents have had flatter sort of
frequencies on their approval ratings. But I think what's concerning about President Biden's situation is that even compared to Obama and Trump, who also face that reality, he's significantly behind right now.
Well, you talk about party id, are we seeing changes in that as well? I know Gallubstunn done some work around this, the idea that people are just changing the way they identify politically in these hyperpartisan times.
Absolutely, And you opened up by saying, you know, there's a lot of potentially unpredictable things can happen. One of the really big changes that's happening in America is this heightened and sustained number of people who are identifying as independents. So today forty one percent of Americans say that they identify as independence. It's basically half of that for Democrats and Republicans. So party image is not really great in
the public right now. A broader data point I think that really drives that home is we just released our latest on satisfaction with the electoral process in the United States. Seventy one percent of Americans say they are dissatisfied. So there are so many data points I can go through to really draw the picture of how people are not particularly please with neither the options they have, how the parties operate, or how the system operates.
More generally.
Okay, well, let's talk about the options. I mentioned that we're seeing in pretty consistently in polls that the majority of voters would prefer it not to be a Biden Trump rematched like twenty twenty all over again. And yet that's likely what they're going to get unless there is a viable alternative. What are you seeing around support for a third party candidate, whoever that is.
Well, I can tell you who we see in terms of favorables.
Of all the folks that are out there right now, President Biden and Trump are basically tied at forty one percent of a favorable rating, and this is do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the following person?
DeSantis Hailey and.
DeSantis Hailey in specific Sarty are at their thirty so really low thirty percent favorable rating. It's important to note that this tends to happen with new names. People don't
know who they are. Kennedy, on the other hand, is already breaking the fifty point mark, but that's probably because of that name ignition factor that he has in his favor So looking at the favorable ratings, which is really a really good proxy I think at this point of the contest to see who's graining traction with the public.
Really, none of them are.
Nobody's really shot through the roof and impressed or wowed. Of course, January fifteenth is just down the street. A lot can change, particularly when those first results start coming out from the caucuses, but right now, nobody's dominating well.
And ultimately, this all comes down to what the voter is feeling as they head to the polls, when they're making that decision who they're going to cast their vote for. So whether this is feeding into what is making people disapprove or approve of President Biden, or just how they're thinking heading into an election year. Where are they ranking their priorities. What does the American voter care about the most?
The American voter always and forever cares about the economy. When it's always the economy, I love to use this line. It's becoming kind of cheesy to repeat this, but the economy is not only king, it's King, queen and bishop. It is everything when Americans go to vote. Now, of course, sitting here with you, of all people at Bloomberg, the economy is light years away in terms of predicting where
it'll be in November. We have so much to happen really from now till then, so it's not easy to predict who's going to be the winner on that topic, but that topic tends to be the most important topic.
I want to caveat that though.
One thing that's really interesting that's happening, particularly with President Biden is the conflict in the Middle East, And what we've picked up in our numbers and what we've seen on streets and protests and conversations within the Democratic Party is there really is a split with younger, more liberal Democrats on where they want to see President Biden on the issue specifically of how to handle the conflict, how to end the conflict.
So that's an important factor.
And it will probably be with us for most of this year, I think, even if not through November. So it's an important top to keep in mind. But it's probably not going to trump the economy.
Well, I'm glad you point that out, because young voters are part of the demographic groups that helped propelled Wide into victory in twenty twenty. There are others at play here as well, Black and Hispanic voters for example, and yet we're also seeing that increasingly those voters are turning more away from President Biden. So how are you looking at different demographic groups here, young people being one, but others as well.
Absolutely, I think it's particularly interesting to look at young people and non white Democrats and what we see on those numbers, particularly when it comes to the Middle East conflict, is they have a very different perspective on what they want to see happen, how much they support the president's current policies. You know, the economy is important to those voters as well, and they tend to have a very different perspective on when the economy is working or not working.
Another thing that's really important is the most important problem according to the American public, and I say this so many times. You know what I'm to say is poor government and poor leadership. And with younger and minority voter that tends to actually be a very powerful and resounding
issue for them. So the more that those voters continue to feel that they're dissatisfied with the process, that they're frustrated with how government operates, that they view government as the most important problem facing America, the less that's going to help an incumbent president, even if he is a Democrat.
I want to dig into this idea that you were mentioning about how the president is handling Israel and Palestine and how that's divisive among his democratic base. We obviously had news today Claudine Gay is resigning as president of Harvard.
There's been a lot of backlash for testimonies she gave in Congress last month, but also just on what has been happening on Harvard's campus in regard to anti Semitism in this conflict or at odds, people seem to be feeling of support for Israel on the one hand and support for Palestinians on the other. And that's not just
true at Harvard. We've seen this really across the country at this point on the Israel and Hamas conflict in particular, what is the data, what is the polling telling you about where America.
Is on this America split.
We did apologists ask people how they felt about the current fighting happening in Israel and Gaza specifically, and whether they support what's happening in terms of military operations America's fifty forty five fifty percent of Americans say they support what Israel's doing militarily, forty five percent say they don't, and that's actually pretty notable, I should say, even before this latest conflict ensued, this split among Democrats, particularly young
and minority Democrats on sympathies towards the Israelis versus the Palestinians has been growing. This is not something that sort of is taking place now because there's a war between Hames and Israel. It really has been something that's building sustainably at least for the past seven to eight years. So this conflict really triggered, you know, that tinder that was already there and building among liberals and in particular kind of the left wing of the Democratic Party.
And we continue to get news on it each and every day. Some other news that were actually still waiting for Today, Muhammad relates to former President Trump and his myriad of legal issues. On the one hand, he's due to have a reply in the DC Circuit Court in regard to the presidential immunity case. On the other we're waiting to see if they file for appeal in the Supreme Court of the Colorado decision to keep him off
the ballot on the grounds of the Fourteenth Amendment. What role does do the courts play for the American voter? Do they trust the courts to be making these kind of decisions when it comes to a presidential candidate.
It's an amazing question.
Basically, right now, the Supreme Court sits at a historic low in terms of public confidence. I should say, though, that most national institutions are sitting near or at record lows. So certainly the Supreme Court is not the arbiter of all of these cases. But aside from the courts and people's attitudes about them, what we've learned through the past two years is that basically very few of these legal development have impacted President's Trump's support with his base, so
I don't expect a big shift in public opinion. I think what's really more critical to follow is whether or not some of these legal challenges develop into a situation where it's not really feasible for him to be a candidate in some of these contests, And I think that's really where things could change. But sort of waiting for supporters to peel off because he's facing yet another legal challenge, we just haven't seen support for that in the data all these past two years.
Yeah, so it may come down to whether or not he actually is on the ballot, whether that Colorado ruling holds up. Obviously, the Supreme Court is going to have to make some decisions in regard to Trump, many of them in all likelihood, But they're also going to be dealing with some other issues in this term in an election year, one of them being mithipristone access to the
abortion pill. We know the effect that the overturning of review, weight of the Dobbs decision, that impact had had in twenty twenty two in the mid terms, they were to make another ruling against abortion rights like that, do you think we would have the same potency in twenty twenty four. Are we still seeing abortion showing up as a galvanizing issue for the American voter.
We're still seeing abortion showing up. It's fascinating that you bring up MEPhI pristone because, like Roe v. Wade, mifhi pristone tends to be something that the majority of Americans support access to. So six and ten Americans actually support people having access to that drug. If the Court were to overthrow a decision or take a decision that takes that away, yeah, it'll probably have some kind of a negative impact on perceptions of the Court with folks who
share that view. Now, it's really rare to get six and ten Americans to agree on anything when it comes to abortion. That's really what was unique about Roe v. Wade, even though it was challenged in many ways. I went to law school hearing about how it was policy and not law. I mean a lot of people have criticized that decision, but it had public support, and I think that's what really drove the change in the public confidence in the Supreme Court. And we saw that in their
of the court itself. We saw that in an elevated number of people saying that abortion was a really critical issue for them when they vote. We saw that and continue to see that in the currently elevated rate of people who are identifying as pro choice after that decision came out.
So, yes, it's.
Still with us, and if there's another landmark decision, it'll bring it right back to the floor.
And it's a potent issue.
All right.
We only have about a minute left, Muhammad, but we've discussed We've covered a lot of ground here in what twenty twenty four may bring, how people are feeling. What is one other trend or something that you'll be focusing on in twenty twenty four.
I think for us, it'll be the election.
It'll be what people are really tuning into for making that decision to cast their vote. One thing we really know right now is most Americans are still totally checked out. They're not focused on political news, unlike you and I night and day. I know it hurts my feelings too, But as it gets closer to November, that number is going to rise and we're going to start asking people what do you bring into mind you cast that vote.
It's a good point. I feel like we've been living and breathing this for a year now, but really it's still early days. Mohammed Yunis joining us. Gallups editor in chief. Thank you so much as Sloomberg.
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