Johnson Proposes Foreign Aid Package

Remembering this whole situation involving speaker Mike Johnson with a motion to vacate hanging over his head Marjorie Taylor Green threatening to fire him if he brings a Ukraine funding bill to the floor, and it's going to happen. There's been a lot of questions about in what form and when,

and we did hear from the Speaker. He came to terms with his conference and his fellow leaders last night, and as we learned this morning, he's going to take the Frankenstein approach, put this together limb by limb, and then assemble the body later. Here's the Speaker of the House.

of this in the supplemental discussion. But the will of this of our body is to find every possible way, using this legislation and every legislation that we pass, to try to use as leverage to get the administration to get control of that border.

know if the speaker can survive them. Marjorie Taylor Green, who again you know, has the motion to vacate here and by the way, has another lawmaker on her side today, labeled Johnson's plan a scam and says she is firmly against it. I support the majority, she writes, and I want it next time, so I'm being careful. Maybe that means he's safe after his trip to Moro a Lago

last weekend. Let's get into this with Megan Scully, who leads our congressional coverage here in Washington, and my goodness, just another two day for you, I guess, Megan, great to see you. But we now know at least the form this might take. I mentioned the Frankenstein approach. Is it the Humpty dumpty approach? Maybe, as we have to put him all back together again.

these bills. So then it's a matter of do you package them all together to try to get them through the Senate, which has its own hurdles. It's going to be incredibly messy, and we don't even have all the details yet.

these defeats on the floor. There's talk of Democrats actually supporting a rule which you know, to you and I doesn't seem like a big deal but actually is pretty different than this the norm. Yeah, any kind of bipartisanship advances it. So it's incredibly complicate trying to get this through. This is probably his best chance of getting through Ukraine. And so that's the way that it's going. It's going

to be a long and ugly week. These votes are probably going to be late on Friday, and then they still need to.

bags for recess yet. And as Donald Trump looms over the House agenda, a pretty incredible day yesterday, even though we're all used to seeing him in court becoming the first former American president, as you keep hearing to go

on criminal trial, it's just different when it happens. And looking at those images of him scowling in the courtroom make you wonder if he continues to raise money on this, whether there is actually a backlash here for the broader public as this now becomes a general election battle where one is attempting to gain votes. Brings us to the latest Siena poll. Important we mentioned it yesterday. We have an opportunity to take the deep dive now with Don Levy.

It's always great to have him with us, director of the Siena College Research Institute. As we read in their partner New York Times publication here, the President's pot already ticking up slightly. This is looking kind of like a tie. Mister Biden, mister Trump virtually tied with Trump at forty six percent to forty five percent, an improvement for Biden from late February when it was forty eight to forty three. There's a lot more under the hood, though, and that's

why it's great to have you with us. Don Good to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg. Let's just start with the headline. Is this the post State of the Union bump everybody was looking for?

candidates have have tremendous hurdles overcome. You Know, one thing that stood out in this poll to us was the folks who we describe as double haters, those voters who say that they don't like either of the two candidates. That's a full eighteen percent of Americans right now, and right now when you look at that group of people, and they're a little bit of everyone, They're not just one demographic. But thirty percent of double haters say that

they would vote for Biden. Twenty one percent of double haters say that they would vote for mister Trump. But nearly half of double haters say either I don't know, or I might vote for a third candidate, or I might stay home. And that's where a great deal of this battle is going to be. Wigs is amongst that group of double haters.

are your choices, it's arguably getting worse for both of them. Well.

we're seeing on issues. We saw in this poll that when you started bringing up the economy, that Trump beats Biden all over on the economy, Americans remember Trump years as being better. They think that far and away. Two thirds say that they have prove of the job that Donald Trump did on the economy when he was president. Two thirds say they disapprove of the job that Joe Biden is doing on the economy. So when it comes to economic issues, that's a tremendous weakness for Biden, tremendous

strength to Trump. Then you flip it over to the trial, and there we continue to see, for the third survey in a row that a majority of Americans say that they think Donald Trump committed serious federal crimes. And when you come to this trial taking place in New York right now, a plurality, not quite a majority, but a plurality by about ten points feels as though he's guilty, and they predict that he may very well be found guilty in this trial in New York.

when you're looking at here. But of course, you know, you go back to four years ago if you do this whole you know, four year ago thing, and that's what people are going to be asking, if God forbid, we ever have a real debate. Are you better off than you were four years ago? We were in the throes of a pandemic. People were not able to live their lives the way they are now. We were talking about closures, shutdowns, lack of supplies. How does Joe Biden

remind people of that? And I guess our memories of short are short. It's amazing to me that that doesn't seem to show up in the polls. You found a big increase nine points in registered voters who believe that Donald Trump left the country better off.

think that the Biden years are good or bad? You know, I think that Biden is fighting the curse of the grocery store and now the increased prices that every American faces on their groceries their other monthly necessities is just weighing them down. And they don't believe right now that

the economy is better and they're overwhelmingly said. We saw a six point increase in the percentages of Americans from this survey to one just in February who say that they think the American economy is no better than only fair or poor. It's slipping away even more in the eyes of voters.

We had six, now we're looking at seven. And we'll be talking more in that next ball about the push pull not only between the economy and threats to democracy the former president on trial, but also the issue of abortion, which is going to loom very large in each and

every one of these battleground states. And it's going to add another dimension that these candidates are going to have to fight over to convince Americans that they're better on the interests of each of these voters in the battleground states.

this now. He actually just outlined this whole plan with a motion to vacate hanging over his head. Listen to the speaker before we assemble our panel for the baseline. This is the news that came out this morning on his path forward. Let's listen.

of this and the supplemental discussion. But the will of our body is to find every possible way using this legislation and every legislation that we pass, to try to use as leverage to get the administration to get control of that border.

move for Mike Johnson. What do you make of this?

United States toward our allies. That no good thing will come out of this other than getting this over with, and hopefully the Speaker has the ability to marshal the resources when there's caucus actually get these votes done this week before they leave for recess. This is the second recess in a month that they'll be going on, and the last one they took for two weeks resulted in nothing happening. So I'm not going to bank on this

until it's done. But it sounds like basically the same bill the Senate sent them months ago that could have been done over with without having to deal with this current situation.

I mean, we've heard from Tom Massey that this is basically just handing everything over that Chuck Schumer wants, and he'll go with Marjorie Taylor Green. You know, we've heard Andy Biggs maybe and no, you know, he is on very very thin ice here, and so I don't know if this approach is going to work. The easiest path is to pass the Senate bill. That's the quickest way to get this done. But of course he doesn't think

that his caucus has the will to do that. So here we are, and I am not convinced this is going to work.

really is making his life more difficult. So you pass all four of these, what if you cannot stitch them back together with some weird parliamentary maneuver? Is the Senate and a clearer than one by one?

got a lot of other business to do. This was supposed to be the easy thing to handle, the supplemental So at the end of the day, I don't think there's going to be much of a hurdle in the Senate. Maybe a few people who want to take a hike

because the complexity around election year politics. But at the end of the day, the Senate wants this ninety five billion dollars to be spent in these priority areas, and as long as the House bills do that, either independently or as a total package, then I think all this stuff sort of gets through quickly. It doesn't make any sense what Johnson's doing other than the other version of the Frankenstein strategy, which is the guy you create kills you.

I mean, maybe these bills this process is creating is going to come back and kill him. That's what I thought you were dalkingo. And so look, I mean he's doing all this to avoid, you know, a motion to vacate that's already sitting on the table by Marjorie Taylor Green. So what to be more interesting to me is whether these Freedom Caucus types and Marjorie Taylor Green band together for a little, you know, reunion party and actually take down this speaker.

had a real problem with the Rules Committee. You've got people like Chip Roy and others on the committee who do not want to see a lot of this take place. If he can't get a rule, which is how you get a bill on the floor, a schoolhouse rock. That means he has to suspend the rules, and then it's a question of whether Democrats will be there for him. Will they?

and you know, getting if you go on suspension. I don't know that he has two thirds to get this passed. But any idea that the Democrats can save Mike Johnson's Mike Johnson's job is just ridiculous because even if they say that he is essentially a dead man walking. I mean, you know, you cannot be the speaker of the repub of the House where Republicans control by way of Democrats, So it is a fool's errand to think that he would look to Democrats, and if he did, he'd be

again dead. So you know, this is a very, very tough situation for Mike Johnson.

she's saying, So I'm being careful. He's definitely not going to be speaker next Congress if we're lucky enough to have the majority. Doesn't that sound like this whole thing just ended. She's talking about Mike Johnson being careful and Mike Johnson not being speaker next Congress. Rick, We shouldn't be taking this seriously, should we?

there to have his press conference with Trump. So at the end of the day, it's more important for Marjorie Taylor Green to get invited to the Christmas party at mar Lago this year than it's going to be to decide who's going to be Speaker of the House of Representatives. So my guess is she's going to follow the pattern.

And I would say that I think there is a path for Johnson if he had any courage, and that is to get one hundred and fifty problem solvers in the Republican side and the same number in Democrats and say I'm gonna I'm going to create a coalition government. I'm going to you know, govern from the center. I'm going to get a lot of things done in an election year that hardly ever get done, and maybe even make a commitment to pass a budget by September of

this year. And he would go down in history as one of the most successful and impressive leaders of our time. There's zero chances that's going to happen, but that's always an option.

if Donald Trump will stand with him. But we do know that beyond Donald Trump, the campaign of Donald Trump is very concerned about all this chaos in the house, so they have been pushing it and that's why he went out on Friday for Marjorie Taylor Green to stand down. So she may well do that. But again, you know, nothing is certain when it comes to Donald Trump's support, and so Mike Johnson's got to be very careful about that.

And you know, I agree with Rick. Wouldn't it be remarkable and wouldn't it make sense for Johnson who isn't going to be re elected speaker. If he stopped worrying about his job and just is holding onto his job and just did his job, that would be remarkable. And yet we've seen no signs that he's going to do that, because he's not going to be Speaker again, so he doesn't have to worry about keeping it. He's just got to do what's in front.

dismissed on site. That's coming up just about an hour and change from now, we'll actually see that process of the articles walked across the rotunda to the Senate.

the way this process is unfolding. Understanding that the defense attorneys are asking these potential jurors basically questions around their impressions of Donald Trump. This is a former president. We're talking about, how hard is it going to be not just for them to get truthful answers to these questions, but ultimately decide who is going to be unbiased in this case. How long do you anticipate this process could take in its entirety.

are to do that. Now the judge is already off a number of people from the jury veneer the jury pool, and that's because they had too many strong biases, either for mister Trump or against mister Trump. It was a process that benefited him just as much as it benefited the prosecution. How long this will take, that is an open question. I would certainly think it'll take the rest of this week and perhaps next week. I do not anticipate jury selection will go beyond that.

has just been excused. Another a man who still has a chance to be on the panel, despite the fact that he followed the president on Twitter. Says no one is above the law, but he drew smiles in a nod from Donald Trump when he said that he read three of the former president's books. He named them Part of the Deal, How to Get Rich and Think like a Champion. He also said he'd been robbed at knife

point and that his wife had been mugged. These people are making direct eye contact with the former president while they're being interviewed. Do you actually believe that there will be a fair jury when this is done?

much affinity for the defendant. If you have a trial of a drug dealer, you don't generally want drug dealers to be on the jury, and so that's kind of a broad parameter. It's challenging. High profile cases are challenging. Any high profile case of challenging because unlike most criminal cases, there's obviously pretrop publicity here, and you have people with pre conceived notions and opinions about the defendant, either for or against him, and you've got to filter through that.

That's what jury selection process has done. But he will get the jury that he deserves under the Constitution. And I do not hold with this argument that, oh, he can't get a fair jury in New York. Well, you know, if this jury quits him, he's going to say it's

a fair jury. So he's getting the jury that he deserves under the Constitution, and people struggle with goodwill to select a good balanced jury, and hopefully the jurors, so the potential jurors are being honest with their responses and they will judge his case fairly.

He charged with thirty four felon accounts of falsifying business records. Essentially, the allegation that Alvin Bragg has made as a prosecutor is that it wasn't so much that the hush money payments were made, but when he reimbursed Michael Cohen for him, he didn't classify them properly. He wrote them off as legal bills rather than something that should have been associated with his campaign. On the way into the courthouse today,

he said, a legal expense is a legal expense. It kind of giving us a preview, perhaps of what his defense is going to be in that case. You were a defense attorney, you think that works.

York and the United States. Sometimes, you know, the very same people are saying, oh, Donald Trump's being treated unfairly. Included Donald Trump would be totally shocked if let's say, for instance, somebody paid one hundred and thirty thousand dollars to suppress a story about Hunter Biden when his father was running for president, and then they had evidence that his father was the one who did that, they would be all over that and say this should be prosecuted. Well,

this is no different here. This and from what we've seen reported the prosecutor as evidence that Donald Trump approved this specifically to prevent Stormy Daniels's story from getting out at a time when he was running for president. Now he's already gotten some favorable rulings from the judge in this case. He's getting a fair trial. The judge, for instance, suppressed so far evidence of the access Hollywood tape coming in, which kind of shows Donald Trump's motivation. So Donald Trump

is getting a fair trial. And I will say something else too. This argument about somehow this is engineered by the Biden administration is absurd. There's no evidence of that. And his argument that I could be someplace else campaigning, you know, blah blah blah. Well, don't forget that this trial could have happened a year and a half ago. It is Donald Trump and his lawyers seeking to delay, delay, delay, delay that's gotten the trial happening right now rather than

months and months and months ago. So Donald's a really shit point complained about that. He's the one who created this trial date.

when testimony begins? What is it going to be like when Stormy Daniels is telling her story and that'll be the front page news or Michael Cohen? Is this going to feel different? Well?

I don't think in my experience, and I've had many many trials where somebody is a snitch and they testify, and then you attack them for their interest in testifying against somebody, the juries are very good at saying, yeah, he's doing that and he's self interested, but doesn't mean what he's saying is not true. Just because Michael Cohen is saying stuff about his former boss and he's getting a deal for it or has gotten benefit from it,

doesn't mean that what he says is not true. I mean, you can be kind of self interested and still honest. And I also think that in this case, having just seen her, I think Stormy Daniels is going to be a very strong witness against mister Trump. And I must say, in this whole sort of affair, at least from what I see publicly, the person that's shown the most integrity and honesty so far has been the sex worker. I mean,

she seems to just have a straightforward reason. She says she slept with Donald Trump because she's a sex worker and the check cleared. Well, that's pretty honest. The jury cares about honesty. Other things are not quite as important to.

by Jack Smith. But the High Court is also hearing something else today, specifically related to riot urges around January sixth, essentially a question as to whether an obstruction of proceeding an official proceeding should be applied to the extent that it is in the cases of those who were present on January sixth. It does seem like some of the justices are quite skeptical of this. What is your read on that case? In particular.

was no statute against it. So they created this statute. Now, the statute, although it was written for that circumstance, has very broad language, and the prosecutors apply that language to the situation of January sixth and these defendants. And so that is pretty common in law. You have a statute written for one thing, but the language is written broadly enough to cover another. It is an argument he could have some success in the court on that argument, although

at the end I don't think so. And of course mister Fisher is bringing that. But the real person who's interested, of course, is Donald Trump, because he's facing potentially the same criminal charges as mister Fisher is. I will also note that mister Fisher has several other charges, as do these January sixth defendants, that would actually they can be found guilty on beyond just what that is, so you know,

so we'll see how that kind of works out. I don't know if you want to have time to go into the presidential immunity argument, but but I could comment on that too, but I know we're press for time.