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The voting is underway. Welcome to the fastest show in politics, as the House of Representatives gathers to elect a new Speaker, with Republican Speaker nominee Jim Jordan reaching for the two hundred and seventeen votes required. Now it's unclear if he can get them. We're going to learn this together in real time, and we'll bring you behind the scenes. Coming up, Sarah Chamberlain, the president of the Republican Main Street Partnership.
She has the pulse of the conference and will be with us in just a moment with analysis today from our political panel. Republican strategist Lisa Camuso Miller, former communications director at the RNC, is with us along with Democratic analyst Matt Bennett, co founder of Third Way Strategies, on the Tuesday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. It's happening as we speak. I can bring it to the floor right now, Jeff, where the voting is taking place on a new speaker
of the House. We just did this, you say, less than a year ago. Yes, that is true, and here we are yet again, Jeffries. How came Jeffries skidding Democratic votes on the floor. It's Jim Jordan. We're listening for here as the Republican conference is met with a real test. Of course, two seventeen. If you're playing along in your home game, remember the rules here. Jordan needs two hundred and seventeen votes to become speaker. That means he can
really only lose four Republicans. The congressman was surrounded by reporters when he got to work this morning. Jeffries quite the gaggle. Listen to this back and forth as he made his way from the door to the elevator.
You need to get a.
Speaker today, and we feel really good about where we're at.
I'm sorry, I'm.
Going over to meet.
But does doesn't mean ballad after ballot?
But wait, Macarthy did whatever whatever it takes to get the speaker today. What are some of the concerns that you've skilled heard.
We've been picking up support every day and so it's been Uh, have you Sgain, I feel confident? Have you spoken to President Trump? Are you asking him to help you with this?
Talk to the president?
Talking to the president a couple of days? How first been knowing?
Why?
Why would you say to ken Buck that the election was stolen in twenty twenty that was not stolen?
Into the elevator, he goes without answering the question from Hona Raju, a question that's been coming up repeatedly. ABC's Rachel Scott essentially asked him the same thing and got the same response.
Earlier today, ken Buck said, it's important for the Republican Speaker of the House to acknowledge that Donald Trump lost the election?
Do you acknowledge that.
Silence on that one? As we listen now to the voting taking place live on the House, I work some concerns about January sixth, as presented by Liz Cheney. We've talked about that on this broadcast. Some concerns as well about his exposure to a sexual assault scandal while spending time working as a wrestling coach at the university level. Here, but the nominations have taken place, the names are on the floor here. We heard from Elis Daphonic on behalf of Congressman Jim Jordan a short time ago.
Whether on the wrestling matt or in the committee room, Jim Jordan is strategic, scrappy, tough and principled. He is a mentor, a worker, and above all, he is a fighter. And the American people know, we know that Jim Jordan is a winner. On behalf of the American people got a.
Big round of applause at the end of her speech, as did Pete Aglar, who entered the name of Hakeen Jeffries. And now we're going through the process here that the house is full as I see Nancy Pelosi and Standie
Layer sitting right nearby Hakim Jeffries crane. But again, it's not the Democrats that we're watching today, and that's why I'm glad to say Sarah Chamberlain is with us, the President's CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership, who's been prescient in her analysis year, was the only insider in Washington who assured us there would be no government shutdown, and now she's back to talk about the race for speaker here, one that she's been involved in her ninety
or so. Members of the Partnership will have a pivotal role in electing the next speaker. And that's why Sarah is in the room for so many of these important conversations. It's great to have you back, Sarah. Your initial take today, whether it's one or fifteen rounds, is Jim Jordan going to be the next speaker.
I don't know yet, be honest. He's not going to give them the first round. He may get it on the fifth or sixth round. I also don't think that the members are going to go fifteen rounds, but Jim Jordan can't get it after the third or fourth round. I think that they're going to move in a different direction. Most of the Republican Main Street Partnership members are voting for Jim Jordan, though the couple that have not so far are both main Street members and they voted for McCarthy.
So it's going to be an interesting dynamic.
I tell you.
The one thing that they all agree on is we need a Speaker of the House, and we need one soon. This is ridiculous. The unrest, they're tired of it, Israel that war, and here we are we can't get a speaker. So interesting times here in Washington.
Thank God, that's for sure. Just think of the stuff we've talked about in the short time that we've been doing this together. Sarah Political called it a cascade of caving, which I thought was pretty clever, as we saw Mike Rodgers, Ken Calvert, Mark Molinaro, a lot of names that we didn't expect to vote for. Jim Jordan fall into his column here, and I wonder what you make of the sort of speed with which that took place over the
last twenty four to forty eight hours. Was it just effective whipping over the weekend from Jim Jordan or just an eagerness to get this done.
I think it's a combination of three things. They're eager to get this done, Jordan has a great whipped operation. And then the third thing is I really want to emphasize Jim Jordan has been reaching out to the Republican Main Street Partnership members for months, long before McCarthy was ever recalled. So he has been building a relationship with these members, never dreaming I'm sure that he would be in this position today. Did neither vote for Speaker of the House.
Well, so is this a turning over a new leaf for him? Is this a different Jim Jordan than we thought? We knew.
I think he's trying to be I really do think he's trying to change and really become a leader that can lead the entire delegation. Though I know the third member just voted no for him, just voted for Lee's Eldam, so clearly that he's not going to get it in
the first round. Ken Buck is not there. But but what Jim Jordan is trying to do, and that's why he's talking to the main Street members who live in Biden districts seventeen of the eighteen that live in those districts and main Street members and he's reaching out, you know, what do you need? And again he's been doing this for months and months and months. This is not a new thing. So I think Jim Jordan is working to see what the entire Republican House needs to maintain the majority.
As you just heard from Sarah, doesn't look like it's going to happen here for Jim Jordan. Yeah, fallon, it's not listening live now on the House floor, Jordan. But you knew that was going to happen, Sarah. You said that most people didn't expect this to be done in the first round. The question is you know, can you go the distance and to your point, will there be patients after say around three for another Jim Jordan vote.
I really don't see this going like it did for Kevin into fourteen fifteen rounds. I think that the members want to get a speaker. If it's Jim Jordan, fine, If it's not, they move on to somebody else, you know, maybe it's a McHenry. I don't know. I don't think there's a plan, to be honest with you, believe it or not. They just want to get this behind them in the best way they can. Clearly right now in this vote, he is not going to get He's not going to become the speaker.
Yeah, how about that? As we learn live with Sarah Chamberlain, if you're just joining us, Jim Jordan does not make the first round here with a live vote still underway on Capitol Hill, Sarah, what do you make of the conversation around January sixth? And I ask you that specifically through the view of Main Street Partnership members who are taking a certain approach to politics and are not obviously
in the MAGA camp. And there's been a lot of talk from Liz Cheney and others, a lot of reporters who are asking questions about Jim Jordan's role on January sixth, and we're hearing a lot of forgiveness, frankly from establishment Republicans. Are you as.
Well, Yes, I am, and because they do think he has changed from that day and that time, and he's become much more willing to talk to all the members. He's not quite as much freedom Caucus as he was on that day. And you can see that with his support of Kevin. I mean, he stood up hard and fast to support Kevin McCarthy in his during his entire speaker Speaker's race, and then while he was speaker, and
then frankly, he tried very hard to save him. He worked, he tried to persuade Matt Gates and the others uh not to vote against against McCarthy. So he's been doing a lot and that is why you're seeing him get more votes and maybe some people thought he would. But you're also seeing some members that you know, for reasons, onto themselves for different reasons. They they have not voted for him today. They're voting for other people.
Got a couple of McCarthy's, including Representative Bacon that may not be a surprise to you. Are you still holding out and it sounds like you are getting back to where we started for another name to emerge. If this doesn't coalesce today.
Well we have to. If Jim Jordan cannot get to speaker, and again I don't know, maybe in the third or fourth round he can, but if he can't, we have to pivot to the next option. And you know what that option is. I don't know. It could be McHenry if he'll do it for sixty days. I don't see. I don't really see us working with the Democrats to try to really forge a bipartisanship. I think when the Democrats didn't step up and help Kevin a couple of weeks ago, there was a lot of damage done between
the two parties, more so than was there prior. So I mean, it's a mess. It really is a mess. It's the only thing I can say. And hopefully we'll get this behind us soon one way or another.
Well, your view is important to us because you know what a mess looks like here, and you know what regular order looks like. Sarah I was compelled to hear from Alexandria Acossio Cortes on CNN last evening. She was talking about the New York delegation New York moderate Republicans who she doesn't think will be able to to vote for Jim Jordan. Here's how she put.
It, We'll see if individuals like Mike Lawler or Mark Moulenaro, who represent New Yorkers in Hudson Valley, the Catskills Westchester County, will actually vote to install a man who voted to overturn the United States's election and who supports a national abortion ban to be Speaker of the House and second in line to the presidency.
What do you think, Sarah, Can they bring a vote like that home?
So Mark has fled. Mark Marlano is going to go. Yes, we're not to the MS yet, but every indication is that he is voting for Jim Jordan. Clearly he thinks in his district he can take that vote and survive it. You know, DS Misito is already voted, and he did not vote. He voted for Leezelden. I understand Mike Lawler
is not voting for Jordan either. So New York will will separate, you know New York's I'm from New York it is certainly an interesting state, and they all have very much their own opinions and strong opinions, and they're going to do what they think is best for their districts.
Appropriations Chair Kate Granger votes for Steve Scalise. Are these just protest votes or are their hopes that a Scalisa McCarthy comes back into the fold.
Sarah, Well, I would tell you I hear overwhelmingly from our members that they really wish McCart they would run again. They love him, they think it's unfair, and they would love to have him go. I don't think that's going to be an option, but here we are.
Sounds like you've got your eyes on Patrick McHenry if we have to go.
There, that he'll be the next best option, and he'd be a very good option if if, and it's a big if still, if we have to go there.
I'm really glad you could join us in the throes of this vote. Sarah. It's good to see you, and thank you as always for the insights. Sarah Chamberlain, Republican main Street Partnership President and CEO. She knows, as we've learned live on the air. Here together, let's assemble the
panel so they can each take a swing at this. Well, we have time with Matt Bennett, executive vice president for public Affairs at Third Way, and Lisa Kamussa Miller is along today, reset public affairs partner and of course former communications director at the RNC. It's great to have you both here on an important data and Lisa, I can only imagine what's going through your mind right now. With Jim Jordan on the cusp of becoming speaker, do you think he can do this?
Not on the first ballot seven votes already against him for a variety of folks. I love Sarah's analysis. She's always a star and she always has her finger on the pulse of how things are going. I do think she's right. I think that we're probably not going to see fifteen ballots, which thank goodness for that. But it's also a demonstration of the American people that we as a party still do not have a consensus, a consensus candidate and someone that can that can lead the conference
in governance, and that's so critically important right now. So it will be interesting to see. But obviously we're going for another ballot for sure.
No votes for Jim Jordan, Matt, what do you think about the way this is going? What are we learning from this first round when everyone said he likely would not be confirmed as a speaker.
Right, I mean, I think this is not a surprise at least in this round. What is it shock an enormous surprise is that we're doing this at all. I mean, the idea that Jim Jordan might become the Speaker of the House would have been laughable about two weeks ago, and it's still profoundly shocking. I mean, this guy is far far too radical to serve in any leadership post,
not least third in line to the presidency. And the guy who's going to have to negotiate on behalf of the House with President Biden with the Senate, this is not somebody who has any of those relationships, and for whom his own colleagues on the Republican side have enormous contempt. I mean, former Speaker Bainer said that he was a legislative terrorist. So this should not be happening at all, and the fact that it's close to happening is truly shocking.
Well, yeah, I guess it's just a question of whether it does happen, but we'll find this out together as we move forward. Here with our panel, Matt Bennett and Lisa Camuso Miller. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Thanks for joining us on the fastest show in politics. We've got a lot to cover here still, Matt and Lisa, stay with us as we keep our eye on the floor of the House. Jim Jordan fails in the first round of voting, but he could still be speaker. This is Bloomberg.
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Jim Jordan will not be Speaker of the House, not on the first round. You see what I did there, just learned. As the voting takes place, they're counting them right now. Now come for the roll call here. This is live sound from the House floor. He does not have the votes to get this done, and that's not a surprise to anybody. No one thought Jim Jordan was going to close this down on the first round, remembering Kevin McCarthy took fifteen, and no one thinks that's going to
happen either. But we're going to stay close to this because it does appear that there will be a second vote to follow, and it might be earlier than we thought. We'll let you know how this goes. It's kind of moving under our feet. All of this happening as we speak in Washington, which is what we promise you here McGarvey first draft of history. We'll just learn it together
as we assemble our panel. Matt Bennett from Third Way, Lisa Camusa Miller at Reset Public Affairs with us here to bring both sides of the conversation as we look at Congressman Brian's style with the tally before the speaker's rostrum. This is going to take them a little bit here, Lisa, obviously, But now that we know Jim Jordan will not be speaker on the first round, I wonder what you see
happening through the course of the day here. They clearly don't want to repeat what happened in January, and based on what we heard from Sarah Chamberlain patients will run very thin after a second or third round here. Do you see it that way in terms of his window of opportunity.
I definitely do. I mean, there's already so much dissatisfaction with him as a candidate. As much as he's been doing all the retail politics he can, talking to members and finding ways to be supportive of them and their needs, I think that there's just a general distrust of him as a candidate, so it will be interesting to see if he can get them over the line.
The other thing too, to Joe to.
Watch that I've been watching as a campaign kid for as long as I can remember, is that Jim Jordan is not a fundraiser. He is not someone who raises money. He's not someone who meets the threshold for his dues for the NRCC. If that's the case and we elect a speaker that's not someone who's a party builder who does everything they can to get others elected, that too, is a change of course for the Republican Party. And that's also of concern because if he's not following the rules,
then who who else? Who needs to Then?
Yeah, Matt, we've got now twelve votes. If my count is right against Jim Jordan. Obviously he's got more than just the sort of eight troublemakers who ousted Kevin McCarthy to worry about here. If that number keeps climbing, how quickly does patients run out? We're undo another name.
Really, that's entirely up to the Republicans, and it's not something I have great visibility to. I would tell you that the Democrats will do this all day long. Not a single Democrat is ever going to vote for Jim Jordan under any circumstances. I mean, the sun could burn out before that happens. So this is really a question of the Republicans are going to change course.
We've got a big old round of applause, standing ovation on the House floor. Matt Hakeim Jeffreys wins his conference on the first round. Are we going to do this again like January two hundred and twelve, two hundred and twelve, two hundred and twelve, As Katherine Clark said.
Yes, as long as the candidate in question is Jim Jordan. I think if Republicans come to their senses and they nominate somebody else, another Republican to be sure that's going to be a Republican speaker. They have the majority, but if they nominate you know, Don Bacon or somebody sensible, then it is conceivable that Democrats might actually vote for them or a vote present, so that really can more easily get to a majority.
Do we see that happening, Lisa? Does that person exist?
Oh?
I don't know.
I mean, I like the optimism for sure from Matt, but I'm not sure that that's right because I think that so far the Democratic Caucus has looked incredibly strong, I mean, bulletproof when it comes to this vote, and really in just about everything they do. And so why I couldn't understand for any candidate other than a candidate that does not exist, that they would change their vote in either vote present or vote in favor of a Republican candidate. I think that they're better off sticking with
Hakeem Jeffries. They think he's the best possible leader for the job. Anyway, I'd be surprised if they changed course. But I'd also be surprised that we pick a candidate that was more like a Don Bacon. I have a feeling that if it's not Jim Jordan, I think Sarah Chamberlin is onto something.
It is certainly something we've been.
Predicting on this show and other places for months now, is that McHenry very well could be he could fall over backwards into this position, but mostly because he's stirring right now in that role and people see him more and more as a leader that they can work with.
It looked like Jim Jordan was making progress winning folks over on the matter of Ukraine. There Goes, there go man. Another round of applause.
For Kim Jeffers Jeffries.
Debbie Dingle was asked about this. I want you to hear what she said. This is of course a Democrat from Michigan close to the leadership on the matter of Ukraine funding and whether Jim Jordan will embrace that along with supplemental funding for Israel, for instance. It's been a big sticking point with a lot of Republicans in the House, and it's interesting to see where Jim Jordan stands here. Here's Debbie Dingle from earlier today.
Obviously a lot of people worry about that, but I talked to some Republicans who say that he's going to make sure that it's there. We know the Republicans in the Senate believe that it needs to be there, and I'm not going to take the lowest position and go all the world is done this crisis, this crisis. I'm going to work together to do what's with my colleagues on both sides of the file.
So, Matt Bennett, do your worst fears about Jim Jordan include a defunding, if you will, of the war effort in Ukraine? Or do you think Jim Jordan offers that to become the next speaker?
You know, I don't know. He certainly doesn't want to fund Ukraine. If it was up for him, he wouldn't, which is very scary, But it's possible that he offered that as a bargainingship in trying to win this vote. However, the Ukraine situation is not going to go away anytime soon. They're in day six hundred of this war. It's not going to end quickly, and it's very likely that the Body Remistration is going to have to come back to the Hill for more Ukraine money at some point, and
at that point his bargaining chips will be gone. So I really worry about that, But I worry more that Jim Jordan has no interest in having the government function as it should. I mean, we have planes almost knocking into each other, we have FAA needing money. This government is vitally important. And Jordan was the main driver behind the shutdown under Trump, and you can certainly see him doing that again as speaker.
Yeah. Blueberg Intelligence is running odds on this, Lisa, increasing the odds to eighty percent of a government shutdown if a man named Jim Jordan becomes speaker? Do you agree with that? And if sol why.
I would be surprised if that percentage adjusted very much for anybody that becomes the speaker. And I say this because the clock is running out. I mean two weeks ago we had forty five days. Now we have what thirty days left to go, and we have how many appropriations bills to get through and get to the Senate.
Pass a CR or that he would not work with the White House or both.
He saw the way the CR went for McCarthy. I don't think he would do that again. I think he's going to try to get it done. He's going to try to do each individual bill as the Conference is asking him to.
So if that's the case, yeah, I really feel like it. I mean, I hope I'm wrong, but it does feel that way.
I don't know if that's even a factor for the Republicans voting right now, Matt, But do you see the odds of a shutdown increasing if it is in fact Speaker Jordan.
Jeff Oh, without a doubt. I mean, Jordan is the hardest line member you can get. There is no harder line. He's all the way to one hundred out of one hundred. So yeah, But I do think this is right, that the odds of a shutdown are high regardless of who they pick, presuming that the Speaker ends up being a Republican, which it will, I do think. I think that without much time to negotiate, it's going to be very hard to get this across the finish line. The question is
what do Republicans want? You know, I think the President is open to listening to things, even though they cut a deal with him and then you know, promptly abdicated on that deal. But they seem only to want to cause chaos and destruction, and that is not a thing that Joe Biden is going to be able to give them.
You do wonder in our remaining moment here at Lisa, can you just picture in your head, close your eyes, picture in your head that's still photo from the pool spray in the Oval office with Jim Jordan sitting on the couch or maybe on the chair next to the fireplace with Joe Biden. Is that something that's within the realm of possibility.
Joe Biden maybe the last.
Member of the legislature now president who is someone that would cross the aisle even for the most egregious and difficult. So I do think that that will happen if Jim Jordan becomes the Speaker, that the President will work with him to the ability that he can. The other question is, will Jim Jordan work with the president?
Really?
Yes?
Right, I can only imagine what would happen in that pool spray. Really glad to have Matt Bennett and Lisa Kumuso Miller with us as we learn in real time, share the future the leadership in the House of Representatives. Jim Jordan has lost the first round of voting. We're preparing for a second.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Dot com the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcast.
With some real news, Hayley, we thought we might be walking through this still at this point. But Jim Jordan has failed, yes in his quest to be speaker in the first round. There's going to be a second. But a lot of folks are kind of surprised by the number of I won't say no votes, but others. We get twenty Yeah, members of the Republican Conference picking somewhere else for speaker.
Yeah.
We knew he likely wasn't going to get it on the first round because there were a handful of Republicans who said they were no votes in Jordan. What we got, though, was not a handful, Joe. It was a sizeable amount of the Republican Conference, twenty individuals who decided not to vote for him. He has sixteen votes realistically that he's going to need to flip if he wants to get the gavel. And the question now is A can he do that? And B what does he need to give
up to do it? If he can indeed pull that off.
Yeah, twenty is a lot at this point. It is Kevin McCarthy. Producer James dug this up lost nineteen on his first round in January.
Yeah, he got two hundred one, and we know that.
Went fifteen rounds. No one thinks this is going fifteen. You get to the third round here and patients will likely run pretty thin.
Well.
It becomes a question though, of the path forward, because if Jordan's still not there after three rounds, is it time for a more serious conversation about expanding the powers of speaker pro ten Patrick mc arthy? Is it time to try to coalesce around someone new. It's very unclear what the conference would do at that point, and frankly, what Jim Jordan himself would do. How many rounds does he want to have to sit.
Through fascinating a speaker McCarthy former Speaker McCarthy, by that.
Speaker emeritis Kevin McCarthy now the congressman from California.
He said it was the Democrat's fault. Is that right?
Oh?
Okay, we don't even need to play it. I guess he got a couple of votes. Steve Scale's got a couple of votes. Lee Zelden got a couple of votes. Yeah, and that's how we got to.
Twenty Yeah, three for Zelden, six for McCarthy, seven for Scalise, and then there were some others thrown in there as well, Emma Cole, Massey, Garcia. So it becomes a question, Joe, of if any of those members who voted for that group of individuals would vote for Jordan on the next ballot, and frankly, if any that voted for Jordan on the first ballot would also vote for him on the second. Just a lot of questions, more questions than answers.
Everyone knew that we're going to be protest fosts. Just get it out of your system on the first round. We're really not going to know where we stand until this is a second round, would be my.
Thought on this, and we don't know when that will be.
You might agree, but we have that could be six o'clock this evening, right, we know what they're going to try to do it today, we're waiting for timing. Do you know something I don't know?
I know, I don't know anything affirmative, But Joe, when we thought there might be another vote this evening, I think was before Jordan knew what kind of margin realistically he was going to fail by yeah.
Yeah, So look, anything could happen. We've been telling you guys that, and that's going to remain the case as we bring in Kyle Condick from Sabada's Crystal Ball, the managing editor and author of the Long Red Thread is with us from beautiful University of Virginia outside of the reach here of the swamp. Kyle, it's good to see you. What do you think twenty votes not for Jim Jordan tells you what about his chances of becoming speaker, But.
It seems kind of paralleous for Jordan. And you know, one thing is it doesn't seem like he and his allies did a great job of expectation setting, because there was reporting advance of this vote that maybe they were thinking there'd be like eight or ten holdouts, and it
turns out there was double that twenty. You know, not that certainly not the first time, and norm will be the last time that the you know, the vote counting may not be entirely up to snuff on the in the House Republican side, and so you know, you just wonder if there's going to be another vote where Jordan is the main candidate, or if it's going to splinter.
You know, there was some talk in the past few days that Mike Johnson from Louisiana, who is certainly not a household name or anything, but that he might throw his hat in the ring if Jordan falls out. You know, I don't know where this thing is going at this point, but I think that you know, twenty no votes, that to me, you know, again, I think that's a it's a fairly bad outcome for Jordan. On the first vote.
We knew that he wasn't going to get it, but again, he's not necessarily within just twisting a few arms and getting there, and he's to twist, you know what, fifteen arms to get there. And there's some there's been some report there were some people that were going to vote for Jordan on the first ball but might not vote for on the second. So who knows.
Yeah, I mean, we could see a whole bunch of things slipping around by the time we get to a second round, whenever that comes, Kyle. But when we talk about the composition of these twenty individuals who voted against Jordan, a number of them are those really vulnerable Republicans, the ones who represent districts that Biden won in twenty twenty. Do you think any of them actually are ever going to be able to say, yes, I vote Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House.
I think it's going to be a hard ask because you know, they'd be committing to, you know, a really ideologically conservative speaker, and they probably would also be committing to more fights down the line with the Democratic controlled Senate and the Democratic controlled White House over you know,
future shutdown. And you know, I don't think these things matter all that much as we're talking now about the next election, but like, what if the House is just like a disaster zone for the next twelve months, you know, does does there start to be sort of accumulating political baggage? You know, again, I still don't necessarily think so. I think the presidential election really sets the tone for for
the election next year. But you know, to the there are only certain things that these House members can control, and one of them is who do they support for speaker?
And you know, you did have a number, not certainly not all of the most vulnerable House Republicans not vote for for Jordan, you know, Lori Chavez Dreamer of Oregon, Mike Lawler of New York, who's been one of the more prominent House Republicans and someone who's in a Biden district beat Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair shan Patrick muloney in a close race last year Don Bacon from Nebraska too.
That's another you know, Biden one district. In fact, that district is actually worth an electro vote because that's how Nebraska does it. So but you know, those were only a handful of the members who didn't vote for Jordan. There also were some other folks who aren't from particularly competitive districts who didn't vote for Jordan. So it was a it was a mixed bag amongst the twenty houldouts on Jordan.
Well, so when you pull out the lens a little bit there with all of that, said Kyle, looking at, for instance, a congressman like Mike Lawler, how many hard knows how many never Jordan are there? Do we have a sense of that?
I don't know, although it certainly seems like it's more than enough to prevent Jordan from being speaker, at least as we're sitting here now. Again, if it was like eight to ten no votes, you could say, hey, well they could get to get a few people to yes. But and you know Jordan, you know again, you know it's been reported on in the lead up to this vote. You know, he's not someone who's been successful passing legislation
in the past. He's not someone who has had to serve in leadership and been someone who has to twist arms to get votes. You know, he's one of the guys who is sort of an outsider for a lot of his time in Congress, and so he may not have the sort of skills or willingness to make the compromises necessary to build a governing coalition. The trouble is for the Republicans is like who is capable.
Of doing that?
Given that the eventual speaker can only afford to lose what is for you know, House Republican votes on the floor. You know, it's different you know previous houses certainly where the Democrats handle it. You know, if you win the internal caucus vote, you get all those votes on the floor,
you get almost all those votes on the floor. The Republicans aren't been having that way, and they kind of have to be unified in order to actually elect speaker because they're not getting any Democratic votes, at least not for someone like Jim Jordan.
Yeah, it's a really tough job, and it makes you wonder why anyone would want it in the first place. And Jim Jordan, as of two weeks in what a day ago, Joe was telling you he didn't want to be speaker, and here he finds himself. You were talking there, Kyle about his kind of rather lack of a legislative record. What we know Jim Jordan for is not for passing bills on the floor and working in a bipartisan manner.
He's known for other things, being a conservative firebrand in many senses, and also his allegiance in alignment with former President Donald Trump, who endorsed him in this speaker race back when it was still Jordan versus Scalise. If he can't make it work on the floor, what does it say about Trump's influence on the Republican Party.
You got to remember too, that, you know, Steve Scalise did beat Jordan in the sort of the earlier vote within the conference, but then it became clear that Scolice was not going to have the votes on the floor, and so then things moved toward Jordan, even though he
lost the earlier vote. So but the point is is that you know, it wasn't like Trump has just been able to get you know, all the Republicans to vote for to vote for Jordan, you know again organ earlier vote and then it doesn't have the votes on the floor.
Now you wonder what the situation in Israel does, what the threat of a shutdown does, these urgent issues that lawmakers are facing, urgent requests for funding our own budget, Kyle, to any of these add up. You know, we're about to hear from Brian moynihann at Bank of America when we're done talking. He's of course concerned about these as our voters. To any of these add up to hasten the end of this saga.
Well, I mean, look, we had this, you know, the events in Israel. You know that was more than a week ago. You know, the speaker impass has lasted longer than that, and that has not yet produced an in it is to produce a speaker, And so I don't necessarily know if future events will. You know, we are we do have a shutdown looming potentially next month, and if the House can't even organize, how do they pass
something to prevent that from happening? So again. You know, the Republicans are trying to hash this stuff out, but I mean the clock is ticking on not just this looming potential shutdown, but also other important task that the House needs to consider.
Kyle is good to see you. Thanks for checking in with us today. As always, great analysis from Kyle Condick at Sabado's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia. A steady hand here. But it's interesting, Kayley, when you talk to people of experienced, people who've been around this town for a while, people who've covered politics for a while, they're all saying the same thing. This is completely unheard of, uncharted territory.
Yeah.
Well, of course, the reason we're in this position in the first place is because a sitting Speaker of the House was ousted by eight members of his own party. The man presiding over the election of a speaker is a speaker pro ten This is an untested position that Patrick.
Mcchenry is in.
So much of this has just never been seen before. And of course it follows the fifteen rounds of voting it took to elect to speaker in January, which hadn't been seen in what centuries? Yes, I believe and we'll see how close we get to that fifteen number in rounds of votes this time around, Joe.
And over one hundred years since Emotion that Vacate it's been, or at least one that succeeded, it's been quite remarkable. Thanks for listening to The Sound On Podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com