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One for Ukraine, one for Israel, one for Taiwan. Then another piece of legislation to bring in things like the REPO Act, maybe TikTok all of this foreign policy. Remember the emergency funding request at the end of last year that already passed the Senate. This is the Houses attempt to try to do all of this through a series of votes. Pretty amazing that we're not there yet because again we're talking about a Saturday vote and that's just the House. In the Senate. Hold on. Jd Vance just
tweeted rumored course of action in the House. Combine Ukraine and Israel aid with other Biden boondoggles, send it all to the Senate as a combined package. Then let the House vote on a fake border security package that has no chance. He calls it betrayal and stupid politics. To boot. Mike Dorning joins us to clear a path here to maybe some truth helping to edit our coverage in Washington from Capitol Hill to our bureau here downtown DC. It's good to see you, Mike. Great to be here. We
are expecting something before this day is out. Correct.
Yes, Speaker Johnson just sent a text to all the members, which our reporters on the Hill quickly saw outlining the conditions that would be in the bill, and we expect to have text eminently.
So that means all these meetings Mike Johnson's been having with conservative Republicans who are upset with him not to mention the motion to vacate hanging over his head with now two names on it. He's actually holding the line on his plan that he unveiled Sunday night.
Yeah, he had said he was going to release this plan yesterday, so everyone was wondering. You know, he had dragged on into the night and in the morning we didn't get it, and we knew that hardliners were furious with him and trying to talk him out of it. But in the end, you know, just before noon today he stuck with it and said, I'm going to press forward with my plan. So now we have to watch
the hardliners and see how they react. We have, as you mentioned, two hardliners that had already said they would, you know, participate in a coup attempt and try to overthrow him. But they need to get more hardliners into the overthrow. Democrats, meanwhile, have been saying that if the Ukraine Aid plan essentially does the same thing as the Senate version of the bill, and maybe has a few other minor tweaks, they would at least for the time being,
back Johnson. So we still haven't seen the exact provisions in the bill. The Democrats are waiting for that, but the Democratic cavalry might save him at least temporarily if this bill meets some condition.
So this is just a brutal mission for Tom Emmer. The majority whip right. You're not just whipping one, You're whipping four bills now, and everybody's angry at somebody. Do we believe that they are counting votes to pass them.
Uh, certainly they're counting votes to pass them. But actually part of the reason they broke him up into separate bills was to make it easier to get the bills passed. You can have Ukraine Aid that all the Democratic progressives will go along with while the ultra conservatives can all vote against it, and then you can have Israel Aid that the Democratic Progressives won't vote for because it doesn't require rules, but all the ultra conservatives.
Splitting him up. But there's a war room somewhere with nothing, oh for sure, bills on it, and this guy's got to be up all night. It's a massive jigsaw puzzle.
They did that to make it easy understood.
So how though, then stitching it back together the Frankenstein's strategy, as I've been calling it, could be the complicated part here. And then what, let's say this goes great? They pass everything, they put them all together somehow, and Frankenstein walks over to the Senate. Should we be assuming that that passes when you have JD Vance calling this betrayal?
Well, I don't think they were counting on jdbo case vote to begin with. But I think that if it basically meets the conditions that Senator Schumer and President Biden want that they're willing to live with, I think it will pass the Senate. It might take some time because folks like JD Vance and others might drag it out a bit. But remember in the Senate you've got more support for this among Republicans than you do in the House.
Sure, yes, although they wonder what happens when there's no border provision in there, like that bill that passed the Senate had, But we're about to find out. Mike. It's great to have you back. Great to be here. By the way, Mike joined us just as he was coming up for air editing a story that just hit the terminal. If you want to see what's going on, look at the terminal Bloomberg dot Com. Great work as always, Mike.
Thank you for bringing us inside the process. Here, I'm Joe Matthew and Washington, where we talk to a lot of politicians we will later today. That's part of our job to hear from d's and rs the way they feel about this, what their motives are, and the way they think that it's going to come out. But of course it's a different conversation when you're talking to an elected official than a true expert in the field. We've been working on a daily basis to try to bring
you both. It's our job here to talk to the folks who are representing you in Washington on Capitol Hill. But then there's a voice like Ambassador Ian Kelly, who has served a career in diplomacy and understands the impact that the funding debate has in the real world. What's actually happening on the ground in a place like Ukraine.
Ambassador in Residence for International Studies in Slavic Languages, Literature and Northwestern University, former ambassad US Ambassador to Georgia, and former US Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Mister ambassador, thank you for joining us. Great to see you here as we talk about whether we're going to see a vote Saturday, whether it will take weeks or even months to start making the shells and other munitions that this money would help to buy for
use in Ukraine. We're also reading stories today about low morale units that have been waiting weeks, if not months, for ammunition. What is the real impact of this delay in Ukraine?
Well, first of all, thanks for having me. And there's a real impact, especially on the frontline fighters. They're unable to respond to Russian artillery because they have to ration their shells. In some places they're out shelled by ten to one, and there's a there's kind of a there's a morale aspect, you know, besides the fact that they can't respond as they have been able to, and that's that they have really felt that they that the US and NATO had their backs.
But in the last few.
Months, of course, the bipartisan support, much of it seems to have melted away. And so that really does affect the morale of these of these soldiers on the front line, affects the morale of of of everyday Ukrainians. So there is a real, I think measurable impact on public opinion and on the morale of soldiers.
The reporting I reference in Politico this morning refers to morale and ammunition shortages units that have not had a shell to fire in a month. Carries the headline Ambassador, Ukraine is heading for defeat, It says, the West failure to send weapons to Kivas, helping Putin win his war. Some think that maybe he has already won, or I guess a better way to put it is Ukraine may have already lost because of the foot dragging here in Washington.
Do you agree, well, it certainly has given aid and comfort to Vladimir Putin this months long knockdown, drag out fight over whether to continue supporting Ukraine. The Ukrainians are very much determined not to allow Putin to take over their country. They've seen what it means to live under occupation in places like Bucha, where dozens of civilians were massacred. So there's I think quite a determination to continue resisting. But of course, Russia has three times the population of Ukraine,
has a much bigger industrial capacity. In the long term, uh it it doesn't look good unless they have the kind of high technology that we can offer and the kind of industrial capacity that.
We can offer.
So if there is no funding here, if this mechanism that we're looking at now, another swing, another attempt in Washington doesn't work out, Ukraine will lose. We can say that out loud, right.
I you know, I I don't think it will end the war. I mean, even if Russia is able to break through and UH and and take take territory, we will continue to have a war there because UH there will continue to be resistance.
UH.
You know, I think another real UH damage that this long drawn out battle has at as we're beginning to look like an unreliable ally to UH overseas, and we all so are also being seen as perhaps being willing to let aggression stand if we don't pass this AID. So there's just a number of very damaging developments that could come out of this, both the Ukrainians and I think to our own reputation.
Well, I wanted to ask you about that very thing. You also serves as a State Department spokesman under Secretary Hillary Clinton, and so I know you appreciate the impact of rhetoric perception when it comes to international relations. And
we've heard this before, Ambassador. We had a conversation with Andrea Duda of Poland who told us right here at Bloomberg that a failure in this case to act and taking it even a step further to talk about a weakening NATO, for instance, if Donald Trump were re elected would provoke other countries to consider starting their own nuclear programs. What would be the fallout in Europe, specifically among our NATO allies if the US fails to act.
Yeah, I'm glad you asked that question. I think that's really kind of an underappreciated result of this war in Ukraine. The United States and most NATO allies have withheld I think quite a few very necessary weapons like long range artillery and aviation for fear of provoking Putin from using nuclear weapons, and so the lesson that a lot of powers draw around the world is, if you want to be immune to any kind of concerted Western response to your you know, to aggression, just have a few nukes
and you will be safe. You know, no one is going to try and do you know, to you what the America did to Iraq, for example, there won't be Yeah, you won't have worry about regime change. This is a serious issue. I think that really needs to be addressed more.
Well, that's pretty scary stuff to consider here, ambassador. Let's look at the other side of the coin. Let's say this money is passed potentially this weekend. We're talking about a Saturday vote in the House, we have the President's signature the next week or so. Would the window have closed by the time we can get material to Ukraine. We were told by the administration they were running out
of AMMO at the end of last year. There are questions about too little, too late, or could Ukraine use that moment to start pushing back and maybe punch through its lines with Russia.
Well, I think we are reaching that point where you know, we won't be able to provide Ukraine with even the weapons to defend it. There was some bridge funding that the Defense department department found, but we're reaching the point where that's going to run out too. But it's there's still time. I mean, the the time of war making, of campaigning, as they used to say, is in the
summer and an early early fall. So if we can expedite these these weapons to Ukraine, yes, I think that they they could go on the on the offensive, and it certainly would be a blow to Putin and the narrative that that he's pushing is that all we have to do is wait for the you know, the the aid to stop, for Ukraine to fall into Rush's hands like a ripe fruit.
So his best hope right now, Vladimir Putin's great hope is that this funding does not pass.
Absolutely, yeah, I mean that's a I think that they're really they're really focused on it. Both Russia and Ukraine are very focused on it. Ukrainian told me the other day that the first thing that troops do when they wake up in the morning is check their phones to see if the funding has passed. And I'm sure people in the Kremlin are paying his close attention to for different reasons.
Seez Well, Ambassador, I'm glad you could join us, Come talk to us again. Ian Kelly, Ambassador in Residence for International Studies at Northwestern University, spend time as US Ambassador to Georgia as well as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The voices of experience you can count on here on Bloomberg Radio.
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You're from Washington. Glad you're joining us on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube. We've got the text. They just dropped the bill a couple of moments ago. Our bills, I should say, having previewed this yesterday, we told you there would be four separate bills, and here they are. I'm looking at and appropriations, a committee summary of what we've got here. We have a team pouring through hundreds of pages right now in the newsroom, and
there is a lot here for Israel. The Security supplemental totals twenty six billion dollars to support Israel in its effort, it says, to defend itself against Iran and its proxies, and to reimburse US military operations in response to recent attacks. Four billion alone here to replenish the Iron Dome and David Sling missile defense systems. Ukraine sixty billion there. It is just like the President asked for, and we saw
it past the Senate. Sixty point eighty four billion to address the conflict in Ukraine and assist our region partners. It reads twenty three of that to replenish defense articles and defense services provided to Ukraine. Another eleven billion for current US military operations. That's before we send money to Kiev. And then you've got into pack. This is Taiwan eight billion to continue efforts to counter communists China, it says,
and ensure strong deterrence in the region. There is a fourth bill that we're hearing about that would include a divest or band TikTok that would include the REPO Act and would also delineate whether this money to Ukraine would come in the form of a loan. I'll let you know, and we have our hands on that as we assemble our panel with the news happening before our eyes. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzeno with us Now Bloomberg Politics contributors. Ricky managed to get the text out. It came out
a lot later than expected. But we're hearing talk of a Saturday vote and a working weekend potentially for this Senate. Can they get this done based on what you see.
Yeah, I think that they certainly have the time to do it.
It just depends on how hard they want to work and how long into potential passover holiday week that they're looking at, you know, And I do think it's going to be close.
You're right, it's not a gimme.
The voting probably won't start until later in the evening on Saturday based on the clock.
And they're going to allow amendments, which I think.
Is generous on the part of the speaker, which would gum up the process a bit. That being said, once they finish one bill, I can shoot over to the Senate. They can act on that while they wait for the second bill. So you can create a little bit of a factory warehouse for legislation here and hopefully get it
done before the stroke of midnight. And I am quite confident that the President would be more than happy to spend the time next week signing these bills one by one, since basically it's giving him exactly what he asked for months and months ago.
It sure is over ninety five billion dollars here in foreign aid Genie, just like the bill that passed the Senate. A lot of conservative Republicans are upset we don't have border provisions here. There's been talk about adding HR two. When you step back and look at this, knowing that they could have passed that bill the end of last year, I believe when it came through the Senate. Remind me of the timeline here if you will. But it's been
some time now. So they're going to get all the money passed for Ukraine, Israel, Timewan and nothing on the border. Is that right? Is that a win for Republicans?
Many of them don't think so, and I think they may. I think we should underscore they may get all that passed. I think the devil here is really in the details, and people are right now starting to pour through these details. So we have top line figures, but we have to read down. Are there conditions on the aid for Israel? What is the pay for is it pertains to Ukraine?
All of these things are going to matter. But you know, Mike Johnson getting this out now with the seventy two hour rule, he is really up against it because it is going to be close if these pass and he loses Mike Gallagher on Friday, and of course if you have Marjorie Taylor Green and Massy, they just need one more then to discharge and a simple majority to oust him.
And you look at the comments by some of the people you know that we've heard from even in the Senate today, Republicans who we didn't think would vote for the bill but are sounding this alarm. Then you see how tricky this is going to get for Mike Johnson. So good for him for getting this out, but this is not over by any means right now. And if he wants to hold on to his job, that's still a big question mark.
Well, we're going to get to that here, by the way, Producer James, keeping me honest, this is ninety five billion. The final tallly on the Biden supplemental was one hundred and six billion. You saw the tweet here from JD. Vance Rick. I know that obviously some Republicans are not going to be happy. He calls this a betrayal. Though rumored course of action in the House is before the ten dropped, combined Ukraine and Israel with other Biden boondoggles
Senate to the Senate as a combined package. Then let the House vote on a fake border policy package that has no chance. He calls it stupid politics to boot. How many jd vans As are there in the Senate, Yeah, well there's.
Half a dozen, certainly, I doubt if not too many more than that.
This has got.
You know, this the essence of this bill, as you pointed out, the Senate bill, which was much much better for conservatives than this current legislation that the Speaker is putting down because it had a substantial and maybe historic provision in there for the border. Talk about a missed opportunity historically. But the bottom line is this is going to pass overwhelmingly. The original bill passed by seventy percent of the Senate. They're going to have just the same
kind of numbers for this bill. Of course, Genie's right, you know, everyone's going to look inside. But these are basically going to be the same titles and the same
bills that have been present on it already. I believe the difference in the overall number, you know, the Preson's bill being over one hundred million, probably relates to some of the humanitarian funds, which I got to believe Republicans at least had to think about before they stripped it out of the bill, potentially, because you know, at the end of the day, what's missed in all this discussion of missiles flying over the air and whatnot is the
humanitarian crisis that exists on the ground there and other places around the world which would have benefited from these funds. So I hate being a republic on the side of ignoring human rights and humanitarian crisises around the world. But that seems to be part of what is going on
with the Republican Caucus and the House these days. So they strip out humanitarian affairs, and they've said no to substantial increases in border security, and so they're basically given Biden a bill that looks much worse than what they would have gotten from the Senate bill.
Isn't that remarkable and Ukraine had to wait a long time for it is still waiting, Jennie, and there are questions about whether it is too late. I guess we're going to find out together here. But Mike Johnson could actually, to your point, lose his job over all of this. I know Marshay Taylor Green is making a lot of noise.
Tom Massey, He's been here before, ask John Bayinner. But then there's you know, there's real question about whether the conference has the stomach for this, and of course whether Democrats will come to Mike Johnson's rescue, and a lot of them say they will. Should he be worried about getting fired this weekend?
You know, I think he has to be concerned about it. We heard him come out yesterday. He you know, said he is something like a wartime leader, you know, talking about the Civil War and how this is how he feels. So we know he's concerned. But you know, the reality is a part of what we haven't seen yet. And I'm waiting for that fourth bill to drop, and it may have already. Is are there any poison pills in
here that move the Democrats out of this? You know what they say is, you know, support provided there's nothing there that would send them in the opposite direction. And that's a big concern because if Mike Johnson is truly, you know, focused on keeping his job and keeping his caucus together, we might see some of that, and that would be another wrinkle in this So far, I haven't
seen anything like that. I haven't even seen that fourth bill yet, but that's something else to watch in the next few miunutes, presumably if that fourth bill comes down.
Yeah, we'll keep you posted on that as we If you're just joining us work through the legislation here on Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo pack Taiwan TikTok bill appears to be not out yet Genie Bill four, we're still waiting for text. We'll let you know when we see that. Rick, I'm supposed to ask you if Mike Johnson's going to get fired this weekend, but we don't know that. Does Mike Johnson even know that.
I don't think Mike Johnson has any idea what's in the minds of Marjorie Taylor Green and some of her buddies. You know, that's that's hard to be predictive of of that legislator.
But I think you know you described it right.
I mean, he's probably got the backing of the Democratic Caucus, probably not exactly what he wants, but it means he's still speaker. I mean, maybe they call the question on the on the motion of the vacate, but I think the vote is going to be overwhelmingly pro Johnson. I don't think the Democrats are going to hang him out to dry like they did McCarthy. And and so we may be talking about this next week. Maybe it's the last thing on the agenda Sunday night, stay up late, folks,
get the popcorn ready. We could see some fun in the floor of the House. Uh and and and yet all that said, we'd wake up Monday morning and nothing has changed.
Wow. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano in the Clutch.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ketch just live weekdays at noon Eastern on fo.
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I am Kayley alongside Joe in Washington, where all the lawmakers are as well. Right now in the House digging through the text of the bill. The three bills rather that we just got doing that work. Just down the street on Capitol Hill, and of course on the other side of Pennsylvania is usually where you would find President Biden Joe, but today that is not where he is. He's not at the White House. He's in Pennsylvania. He's got a bit of an announcement in regard to steel tariffs.
He's moving back. I saw yesterday. This is a three day tour of God's Country for Joe Biden. He's talking tariffs. Today's actually meeting with steel workers today, with union workers in Pittsburgh. As he, I guess, tries to match Donald Trump on this one, because Donald Trump's ready to slap what was it, sixty percent tariffs everything. He's on everything. He's of course talking about the Nippon steel deal, trying to get traction in a group that frankly has preferred Donald Trump in the past.
Yeah, he's definitely trying to court the union vote on the one hand. On the other hand, Joe, I wonder if this is just more evidence that, frankly, in terms of protectionist policy, Joe Biden and Donald Trump may be a lot alike, because, as you allude to, Trump, already during his administration imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum. Those didn't go away under Biden. He's kept a lot of these tariffs in place and now is actually thinking about expanding them.
Yeah, it's an interesting dichotomy for this president. Of course, he pitches himself as the most union friendly president in American history. I suspect that we will hear that later on today, and we should tell our listeners and viewers that we actually expect Joe Biden to be speaking. He's scheduled to start later this hour. We're going to bring you some of his remarks if he gets to it on time. And preparing as well to sign these three
bills next week, assuming they pass. Kaylee, But we wanted to stick on the campaign trail here in this conversation between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, with the help of Laura Davison, Bloomberg Politics editor. Three days in Pennsylvania, Well, I believe Donald Trump spends four this week in court.
Yes, right, that's right.
That's working out pretty well for the president.
This is a real nice split screen for him to have.
He can go to Pennsylvania, you know, a place he was born there, he's very comfortable and talked.
To steel workers.
You know, when you look at both Trump and Biden's you know, policies here, they're very close when it comes to when it comes to these policies, they you know, both want tariffs. You know, it's important to note that this policy today is much more symbolic than it is actual. You know, a lot of the Trump tariffs have already killed a lot of the Chinese imports. But this is a warning shot to China saying, look, we are going to go after your your shipbuilding industry, your metal industry.
And we've already seen China react and issue a very sternly worded response.
Yeah, as you probably would expect China too.
That's typically how things go in this relationship on all matter of issues. Then there's also the consideration here that obviously we spent most of last week talking about the nip on steel in the US steel deal as the Japanese Prime Minister was in town at the White House. It seems like these policies are all really about the
union at the end of the day. Right, Sure, there's the national security consideration in there that is often brought up, but really this is a union friendly president going out to court the union workers. We saw that in the case of the UAW, and now it's the United steel Workers who are maybe getting the special focus.
If you will, Yes, I mean, and this is really about courting not just the union worker, but the union voter, where it has been a very powerful, you know, voting organization for the president going back. You know, you mentioned earlier that he doesn't necessarily have the support from the rank and file.
Union member, but he does from the organization.
He's gotten endorsements from the United Audit Workers, from the United steel Workers, and he's gotten a lot of money from them as well.
So this is all important.
And the sort of the hope is, okay, if we can have sort of the top level endorsement and then embrace policies that they like, you know, meeting with them, you know, opposing this deal that would be potentially send jobs overseas, maybe that's a way to reel in votes. And you know, in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, Wisconsin, this those blue wall states, Biden really just needs to win,
you know, every one thousand vote. Here are their accounts, because it's going to be you know, it's gonna be a ten thousand dollars margin netsmall.
I started by referencing the fact that Donald Trump is in court for days a week. Is this new schedule going to motivate Joe Biden to travel more over the next six to eight weeks knowing that Donald Trump cannot.
This is certainly a key motivation, particularly on those days when when Donald Trump is in court. You've already seen his strategy in the courtroom start to play out. We saw him go to a bodega yesterday after a court appearance. He you know, got in the car head uptown, you know, was able to talk about crime and immigration and some
of his key you know, focuses there. So that's you know, you're going to see the sort of the strategy play out as both both Biden and Trump are figuring out, you know, how can they capture uh, you know, the attention of the media.
Yeh, all right, Laura Davison, Bloomberg Politics editor, thank you so much.
I got to go back to a bodega this week in New York as well. I don't miss that much about New York. But the bagels, the pizza.
It looks like r element in front courthouse after it. Man, if people forget Joe Biden in the last campaign was doing these drive ins. Yeah, it was the middle of COVID yet the big white circles, remember, and the people would honk instead of clapping. This is in many ways the first campaign of its kind.
Yeah, very different.
The body the re election campaign is the more traditional one.
Yeah, we're in a very different place now than we were four years ago. And certainly that's true as we are now emerged from a pandemic. But a lot has changed geopolitically as well. Is there are now two hot wars European continent, one in the Middle East to the other. And there's many questions around the path forward for the US. Perhaps though we got a bit more clarity from Congress today is we do now have the release texts of three separate bills that would help fund Ukraine, Israel, and
the Indo Pacific. We could see a vote in the House on Saturday. The question is is all this coming just a little bit too late? And that's a question We now post to Jane Harmon, who is joining us once again here on Bloomberg Television and Radio. She is the chair of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy and of course a former congresswoman from California, Congressoman. Always
great to have you here on Bloomberg. So, assuming that all of this goes according to plan, this passes the House on Saturday, the Senate is able to pass it as well and send it to President Biden. Is it going to actually turn into something tangible for Ukraine?
Just a bit too late?
Well, it is late, but it's not too late. It is sooner than it could have been. But there are a couple of wrinkles here. These are separate bills, and I'm not sure if they're amendable. If they're amendible and there's mischief on the House floor and the dollar numbers change and other baggage is added, it may be hard to reconcile them with the Senate bill. I'm hoping that alongside all of this there may be some effort at a discharge petition to discharge the exact language of the
Senate bill so it can also be voted on. I think it would be passed overwhelmingly and then there would be no conference and this would move to Biden immediately. Sure where this sends up, but the good news is finally Speaker Johnson figured out he needs to do the right thing, and he needs to understand that people are dying in Ukraine right now as we do there, so that's good. I also think Israel needs the aid, and obviously we have to send strong signals about defending Taiwan.
One other point here that worries me, and that is this fourth bill. Where is that going? I think some aspects of it are fine, but some may be of concern. And finally, the border provisions are not included in the House bill. What an irony. These are the border provisions that most members Republican members of the House want, so why are they leaving them out?
Well, that's why I'm getting confused, Jane, and I figure you can help me understand, because there was a bill, of course, that passed the Senate. It had everything that we're looking at here, plus an historic compromise between conservative Republicans and I think we can call them centrist democrats. Go ahead and call them liberals if you want. But my god, Jim Langford was at the table here. Now. I know that the House wanted HR too, but that
probably wouldn't have worsened the situation at the border. Right, So why again, was this better than that?
Well?
It isn't better than that. But what it is is it's a way to try not to give President Biden any credit. It's doing the wrong thing so as not to give Biden any credit. And I if that makes sense to you, it doesn't make any sense to me.
Sometimes I need to be pulled in off the ledge a little bit here. But Kaylee, well earlier, yeah, well I understand. But if you look at comments from jd Vance and others, this, even if this goes smoothly in the House, it could get complicated next door.
Yeah.
Especially it is the United States Senate we're talking about, where you need unanimous consent to do anything quickly, and there may be some who are very reluctant to allow
things to happen in an expeditious manner. One of the issues, though, Jane, that jd Vance has raised is around repo, which is one of those things that maybe in that fourth bill that you were alluding to, tied together with a bunch of other things, including the banner de vestiture Bill of TikTok On this idea of taking those frozen Russian assets and using it to help fund the war effort in Ukraine.
Is this something that is actually going to work in reality, knowing frankly it would need buy in from other partners in all likelihoods, since a lot of this is actually held on the Cotten end of Europe.
Answer is no, it's not going to work without buy in from Europe. Most of the seased assets are in Brussels. Five billion or so three to five billion is in the United States, which is not nearly enough money. And there is an argument, although some lawyers are defending using these seased assets now, there's an argument that it could be counterproductive and add to Ukraine's debt and mess up Ukraine's ability to leverage funds from the IMF in other places.
There's another idea about just using interest on these assets, which apparently everybody would agree to. But I don't think it's enough money at any rate. I'm fine with discuss this thing, and I'm fine with some of the other things in this additional package. But what I'm really wanting is the Senate pass bill to be passed in the House so there's no conference, no more mischief, and Biden can sign it on Saturday night. Let's understand has been
said before. These are the equipment that's going to Ukraine is ready to ship. It's produced in the US. The money that we're providing is paying for replenishment of that equipment. In fact, some of that equipments in Europe. So Ukraine will get relief almost immediately. I was just there two weeks ago, and what I saw was Ukraine is able to produce low cost drones, more advanced drones, tanks, et
cetera for its use. It's doing that now. But they don't have advanced anti jammy equipment and they don't have air cover. And those are the two things that will help them win the war and help their people from not die further, and help them from shrinking the border.
They are, as President Zelensky said to our press fairly recently, they're cutting the line, meaning they're reducing the area they're able to defend because they don't have one five five am imagine that, and they don't have the other things I just mentioned. It's shameful, and thank goodness, Speaker Johnson has gotten the message.
Well, they're not going to show up anytime soon either. A lot of this stuff needs to be made still after the moneys are allocated. Jane Harmon, if you're still in Congress, would you vote to protect Mike Johnson.
Let's see what he does. I would vote to end the chaos, and that's something that's the call of the Democrats who will have to save him. If this ridiculous rules changed agreed to by Kevin McCarthy stays in place, I would vote to change the House rules and go back to the old way of doing this where it takes a majority in order to try to remove to vacate the Speaker's office. I think this is insane, But what I'm saying is, you know, it ain't over till
it's over. And let's see if this goes smoothly this week, and let's see if they hold the Senate numbers, and let's see if there's a possibility of actually passing the Senate bill in the House through a discharge petition or some other procedural change. It's not what Johnson is recommending right now, but just maybe some Republicans will step up and help sign this discharge petition and that will get legs, and that would save us all and save the Ukrainians from a lot more tragedy.
Jane, just given how difficult this effort was, considering this effort still is not over, knowing we're getting closer and closer to an election and there is no end in sight for this war between Ukraine and Russia. Is this going to be the last opportunity for the US to provide aid? Is this not going to only get harder as this conflict goes on.
It's going to get harder. And as the election season increases, and the disinformation by Russia, you know, which is influencing some members of Congress, increases, and Ukraine's position weakens. I can see an argument, well, they you know, they can't do it, so let's let's focus elsewhere. I think that is heinous and shameful. And let's understand that if Putin
wins in Ukraine, he moves right on into Europe. He's basically said that, and it emboldens China with respect to you, to Taiwan, and it emboldens Iran with respect to the Middle East, where it is not abiding by any rules. The world is as messy as it has ever been. US leadership is needed more than ever. If Ronald Reagan were alive, he would be talking about just what I'm talking about, which is robust support for freedom in the world.
Against these enemies who want autocracy and want to take away freedom for their citizens and for all the rest of us.
Always great to have time with you, Jane. We thank you. Jane Harmon, Chair of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy, of course, former Congresswoman, with straight talk today from our nation's capital. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.
Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then ron Oto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines and the Capitol. We've had quite a bit of breaking news since we came to air less than two hours ago, with text released on three spending bills Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. We're waiting for a fourth now, or at least details we know that it's in the formulation here will likely include a
TikTok divevest or band measure. Kaylee their talk about the Repo Act, which would actually help to pay for Ukraine funding by way of seized Russian assets, and there could be Iran sanctions in there as well. Now, instead of one big vote like we saw in the Senate, this is going to be four separate votes in an assembly line, I think. Is how Rick Davis talked about this. In a best case scenario, you pass it in the House,
you get it going immediately in the Senate. Otherwise they're going to take a lot of time.
Of course, this vote isn't going to happen until Saturday at the earliest because members need seventy two hours to read all these various pieces of legislation, So that is definitely true. For our next guest, Republican Congressman from North Dakota,
Kelly Armstrong, is joining us now live from Capitol HILLISO. Congressman, I'm not sure how in depth you've been able to get into the text of this legislation yet, but from the headlines, from the outline that we have gotten, the reaction we're seeing already from some of your colleagues, is this going to work?
Will the rule pass?
I don't know. I don't think we have enough Republican votes for the role, just from what I can follow from my colleagues on social media right now. But I mean the Speaker's made the play. We're going to move forward. I think the problem with how our rule votes have gone so far this Congress is it's a little bit like skipping school. It's hardest the first time, gets a little EA is here the second time, and now we're there.
But I mean, we'll get our first answer in the Rules Committee and then we'll see when we get on the floor.
Well, okay, got it. Your own impressions, though, Congressman, I'd love to hear because these three bills that we've seen at least look a heck of a lot, like two thirds of the Senate bill that passed, and I know is considered DOA in the House. What we do not see here is any language on the border. And I know that many conservative Republicans thought that did not go far enough. But to have nothing in this package, is this a raw deal for Republicans?
Well, I think the border is the number one issue in every district across the country. I think it's the number one issue I hear from my constituents. Sounds like they're going to bring a second rule with a second border bill. I mean, we're going to have an open amendment process, which I think is important. You can fully expect it to see some pay for amendments from conservatives here. But again, it all comes down to what the rule looks like, what the actual underlying text is we're going
through at my office right now. And then so you have threefold. You got to give everybody a chance to read it. You've got to have you got to pass the rule, you have that opportunity for amendments. And then I guess the fourth one, we got to keep everybody here until Saturday night.
Yeah, and I guess there's a question of not just whether or not people will be in town through Saturday, which it does indeed appear will happen, but frankly, what would happen after the votes are actually cast, specifically to the speaker himself. Congressman Mike Johnson obviously is facing now a motion to vacate threat not just from your colleague from Georgia, Marjorie Taylor Green, but Tom Massey. Potentially others could move against him as well. Are we about to
see history repeat itself? What is the odds right now that he falls to the same fate as Kevin McCarthy did those months ago.
I don't.
Yeah, I mean, I don't know so much about odds, but I know math. I mean, by the end of by probably Monday and next week, we're gonna have a one vote majority for a short period of time until some of these specials come around and we get Ohio back in here, in California back in here. And so if two people bring it, I mean I just would. I would tell each and every one of my colleagues
I went through that fifteen week thing in October. I don't think anybody, for as good as Mike, as hard as Mike is, trying for as good a man as he is, I'm not sure anybody thinks it's better now. And more importantly, I'm not really entirely sure on our side who would take the job if this works again.
Well, that is part of the problem here, although we understand Tom Emmer might be in the running if it gets that far, and god knows, the Majority Whip has a lot of work to do here over the coming days. One thing that did take place in the House that we can actually get our arms around, Congressman, is the impeachment of the Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Majorcis, who was back in your House of Representatives to testify to the
President's budget proposal yesterday. The articles of impeachment have been sent over to the Senate, where we're told there will be no trial, that this will be quickly dismissed or die a quick death through some legislative maneuver. After the time that you spent in the House on this, what's your message to Senators?
Well, I think a lot of the senators on my side the Aisle would like a robust debate. I mean, the Secretary of Mayercus has made a conscious decision not to follow US law that has directly impacted people as far away as the state of North Dakota. But I mean I take a different view of this. We can't ever control what the Senate does. They can't control what we do. The best we can do is do our work. I think Mark Chairman Green did a great job of
laying out the reasons why this is important. We give it over to them, and I wish they would take it and give it to gravitas it deserves. But again, I can't control what happens over there.
Well, and even sir, if you were to see the Senate impeach my Orcus, which I think we all know is highly unlikely to happen at this point. What reason do you have to believe that a future Biden administration Homeland Security secretary would do anything differently? The administration's policy wouldn't change just because one secretary was impeached.
Well, I mean, and that was always debate on our side as well, and I think for the most part that is exactly accurate. Your point is is the person who's in charge is who you go after. But I think in this specific case is somebody who's worked on the Immigration Subcommittee since I got here in Congress in twenty eighteen, and actually did this work as a lawyer before I got here. When you make a conscious effort and specific efforts as the secretary of that agency to
not follow the law, it's worthy of that. You know, we've heard a lot about his first time it's happening over in one hundred years. Well, I would argue that this is the worst secretary we've had in over one hundred years.
Well, as the Mayorkas impeachment resolves in the Senate, here, Congressman, there is the matter of Joe Biden's impeachment proceedings, not in a formal sense, but the hearing that have been underway. He has chosen not to accept oversight Jim Comer's invitation to testify, and in the letter letting him know that the White House Special counsel said, your impeachment investigation is over. Is the White House right?
Yeah?
I mean no, I don't think they are right. I think that's the letter your lawyer writes. I used to write those lawyers letters to opposing lawyers as well. Eventually, Chairman Jordan and Chairman Comer are going to have to make a decision. The one difference about these investigations versus the way they work out in the court system is you run up against a time clock. They're going to continue to try and give this I still think we should be working very hard to get the audio from
Special Prosecutor hers President Biden talking to his ghostwriter. I think all of those things. But eventually they're going to have to say, do we continue to fight for this information or do we wrap it up, write a report and let the Republican Conference make a decision. And that's a chairman decision based on the time clock.
Congressman, of course, is there is much to discuss in terms of domestic paul, including our own borders. There is a lot happening geopolitically, which is what a lot of this legislation that has been introduced, at least the text of today, is meant to address the various wars we are seeing that US allies are engaged in, including in the Middle East, as we're still awaiting a potential response from Israel in retaliation for the strike we saw Iran
conduct over this past weekend. I'm wondering how concerned you are, knowing that you sit on the Energy and Commerce Committee about what may happen in the Middle East and what the ramifications of that could be on energy prices and other things. What is your degree of concern?
Well, my first degree of concern is with our closest ally, maybe not just in the region, but in the world, as Israel and their right to defend themselves against surrounded by hundreds of millions of people that quite frankly want to wipe them off the planet. But I mean, just coming into this break before my segment, you had WTI down two dollars a barrel. At any other time in history, if there was a hot war with Russia and conflict
in the Middle East. I think it's safe to say that oil would be over one hundred and ten dollars a barrel at this point. It is not, and the reason for that is because of American oil and gas production and shale plays like in my state in North Dakota.
So my longer term actual concern on the energy prices is sixteen a pause on sixteen, LGX sports, a tailpipe e mission, clean air acts that are coming through out of this administration, which I mean, we're producing as much oil in North Dakota as we ever have, but these are long term subsequent problems that will decrease our ability to produce and transport oil and natural gas in five years seven years, and it seems like a conscious effort from this administration to do just that.
Well, it's an interesting time to be talking here a Congressman, and we appreciate you being so generous with your time. After this is done, whether this is an up or down on Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, this is sort of a fit of lawmaking that we're going to see potentially here in the next couple of days. Because it's a campaign year, because of how well thin the Republican majority is in the House. Are we done after this as the store closed?
Well, I hope not. I hope we can get a farm bill done. It's incredibly important to the citizens in North Dakota. We're going to start obviously the twenty twenty five appropriations process, but I mean, you all know this. I mean, this isn't unique to twenty twenty four. The massive legislation always slows down the closer you get to
an election. But we're going to when we get through this set of things, I know our office is going to be concentrated on figuring out how to get a farm bill across the finish line.
It's an important reminder that there is still work to be done. I guess there's a question of how expeditiously that can happen. Congressman, thank you so much for joining us here on Bloomberg Television and Radio.
We appreciate your time today.
Sir.
That was the Republican Congressman from North Dakota, Kelly Armstrong, and of course Joe. It's not likely that we're going to see votes on the farm bill for some time, as it took just this long to figure out the supplemental question around funding for allies, and that vote will happen on Saturday, and I guess we'll see what happens to Mike Johnson as a consequence, that's for sure.
And it's you know, the Farm Bill. Of course, it's not a shocker for the at large representative North Dakota to bring that up. But it's of course involving a lot more than agriculture, with the vast majority of funding in the Farm Bill going to food stamps. That's how the SNAP program is funded. So that's an across the board sort of impact when it comes to cities, when it comes to farmlands across the country. And boy, we've barely started talking about that. This is day to day
or in the case of today, hour to hour. Here, Kaylee, we still don't have a fourth bill yet.
Do it?
No, not at this point. We'll wait for the text of that.
We know likely what is going to be in that, but we're still parsing through all of the details. You go, So thank you for joining us as we do so from here in Washington.
Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, d C noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com