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We are following the breaking news we got less than an hour ago from Hamas, which says that it has accepted a ceasefire proposal put forward by mediators Cutter and Egypt. Hamas says the head of its poll up bureau informed Cutter's Prime Minister and Egypt's Minister of Intelligence that had agreed to the proposal that was put forward by the two countries. This is according to a statement on the
group's telegram channel. We have yet, though, to hear from Israel as to whether or not they have in turn accepted, or from Cutter or Egypt for that matter. But of course, this follows a phone call that happened earlier today between President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister bb Net Yahoo, in which they discussed not only the efforts towards a c spire, but also questions around RAFA and a potential invasion which
the US has been pushing against for more. Now we go to Michelle jem Risco, a Bloomberg White House reporter who was joining me here in our Washington, d C.
Studio. So, Michelle, obviously we are still.
A waiting confirmation from any of the other parties that have been involved in the ceasefire talks. What we do know, though, is that the administration has been pushing aggressively for an agreement like this to be reached, not just President Biden when speaking with Netanyahu earlier today, but Bill Burns, who has been in the region, the director of the CIA, and of course Secretary of State Anthony B. Lincoln was on his seventh trip to the Middle East just last week.
That's right.
It's been an all hands on deck approach, even more so in recent days, and we were getting vibes from the White House and others in the administration that things might be moving closer. So we have yet to see with this Hamas news. You know, that adds another layer of uncertainty as to whether that fits into the fast evolving developments here. But they did talk this morning that it was a multi you know, multifaceted call really, as
they often are. Between those two leaders, and a lot of reading in between the lines and what they discussed. But we'll have to see, you know, when it concerns Holocaust Remembrance Day this week, when it concerns the Rafa operation that may or may not move forward, and we've seen tentative signs of that, the evacuation is certainly happening. When it concerns humanitarian aid, all these questions, those are certainly the topics that were forefront in this call.
But you know, again a lot of fast moving developments here. Well on your point of Rafa.
When we came in this morning, we thought the conversation would be having is that a ceasefire agreement was potentially even farther away rather than a closer given the stalling out. It seemed that talks experienced in Cairo over the weekend, and then to your point, Israeli Israeli military signaling to civilians in Rafa they needed to start moving out of parts of the city which could have laid the groundwork for that ground operation. What we know that the administration,
the Biden administration, is vary against that. They have said as much publicly on many occasions. Is Prime Minister Netanyahu in a position now where if he were not to agree in turn to a ceasefire agreement that Hamas has agreed to, that he would be in serious trouble with this White House.
Well, it's very interesting because there's a lot of diplomatic games that might be at work here as well. And we don't know. I mean, you use the word signaling, which I think is appropriate at this point in time.
They did.
We do know that the Israeli military has signaled for some evacuation of Rafa, not a full evacuation of those member of those civilians there, but at least in part.
And we do know that's moving forward.
Now, we don't know how long that would take, what the ground offensive would look like if it does move forward, and what it's connected to, what the purpose is there. But as you mentioned, that does create another wrinkle in
Prime Minister Netnyahu's strategy. If Hamas has agreed to this deal, he's going to have to figure out do you move forward and do you move forward with the sort of purpose that he originally intended for this sort of operation, But certainly, as you mentioned, not supported by the US in its full form.
Yeah, and I wonder what we'll hear from President Biden about this tomorrow when he's planned to give a big speech it was announced last week and Holocaust Rememberance Day it will be tomorrow Tuesday on Capitol Hill. After he spoke from the White House last week about what we're seeing on campus protest. How would we expect that the tenor of that speech would change if a ceasefire agreement is actually in place before the President gives that address.
Yeah, I mean, it certainly makes it much more complicated. I mean, this week was already pretty tricky in terms of messaging with the Holocaust Rememberance Day. Of course, the Biden administration has been, you know, at this tricky position
to balance a lot of different things. They certainly want to hammer home the message that their commitment to Israel security is ironclad, as they've been saying and as the President himself has said, and they want to hammer home the message of being fully in support of, you know, observing Holocaust Remembrance Day, remembering what it's for, and backing those who are fighting anti Semitism, as well as what they say is other hate field speech, you know, to
speak to these other issues campus protests and everything.
But at the same.
Time, they want to make fully clear that, and they have in certain ways that you know, US policy could change if the Rapa offensive moves forward. So we're going to have to see how these developments affect the tone and tenor, as you say, of the president speech tomorrow.
But all said domestically, when considering the domestic layout for President Biden, let alone what this would mean for Palestinian civilians, for the families of hostages, for the hostages themselves, of a ceasefire agreement were.
To be reached.
If this were to be confirmed by Israel, it could potentially alleviate some of the pressure here on President Biden here at home with Arab American Muslim voters, young voters who have been so dissatisfied with the way this administration has approached this conflict.
Yes, that's right, and we do have a word.
I mean, there's some other reporting and the axios and others talking about, you know, the possibility of an ammunition shipment being delayed from US to Israel, which would be if it is true, I mean, that would be a big sign of some sort of change in a long running policy of continue to support militarily Israel and its fight against Hamas, and we have as you know, as I mentioned, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby, among others,
has said, you know, if this RAFA operation moves forward, which it looks like in some format, might then you know, we will tweak our policy in some way.
We don't know what that looks like, and maybe this is part of it.
But you know, again a lot of moving parts, and we see the ceasefied deal maybe on, maybe off, but you know that also has an influence here in terms of both the diplomatic side as well as the military side.
All right, Bloomberg's Michelle Jamrisco, who covers the White House for US, thank you so much for joining us again. What we're dealing with here is Hamas, which says that it has accepted the ceasefire agreement.
Put forward by Egypt and Cutter.
We have not yet heard word from Israel on this matter, so of course we'll keep you updated if and when we do. But we turn now to another expert on this region, Aaron David Miller, I'm pleased to say is joining us. He is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. It's always great to have you here on Bloomberg Television and Radio erin. Obviously, we are still awaiting confirmation from Israel that the ceasefire agreement has
been reached. Would it surprise you if it had, considering the rhetoric, the developments that we had gotten out of this region just in the last forty eight hours.
Not really. I guess it's a question of urgency.
I think as of this morning, I concluded that there is insuvision urgency and the part of Hamas and the Israelis to sign anything. And the urgency that really existed was only on the part of the Bibe administration. Understand, I mean, I think we have to be very sober here though. Number one, we have to wait for an Israeli response, and number two, the quote unquote proposal ceasefire agreement has been reported in many places, in many different forms.
I would suspect that what if, in fact Hamas has agreed to anything and expects the Israelis to agree, it would be to.
A phase one that it was, that is to say, the exchange of.
Thirty three.
Women the elderly in the infirm in exchanged for an asymmetrical number of Palestinian prisoners, as much as seven hundred or one thousand, one hundred of whom have you been accused of or convicted of killing Israelis?
And a forty day That was the number mentioned.
In one of the reports, a forty day temporary sees fired. What had blocked the negotiation so far is that the Israelis one of the issues. The Reels had not accepted amasa's demand that this Phase one basically produce a comprehensive seats fired and with throw all of Israeli forces from Godsam, essentially an end to the war. So it's not clear
to me whether or not AMAS has accepted. When they say they've accepted the Egyptian cuttery proposal, is this the broader proposal for three phases to actually end the war, or is it Phase one, which is the more limited exchange.
So I think the good news here is.
That it could preempt any sort of significant Israeli ground campaign. It would result in freedom for the hostages, women in particular who are being abused, and a temporary cease fire, cessation of hostilities, along with the redeployment of Israeli forces from certain areas of Gosm and an end to Israeli overflights during the hours where this hostage exchange for prisoners is going to take place.
And remember, I would bet.
That it will be a few weeks, maybe not that long before implementation of phase one could take place, given the complexity that surrounded the You remember the initial exchange if one hundred and two hostages for four hundred Palestinian prisoners in mid November.
A lot we don't know.
And you know, there's also the dead cat on your doorstep theory, which is that Hamas is accepted, trying to put the ball in Israel's court and now leaving Benjamin Nataniel with the decision whether to agree or not. President's phone call this morning clearly they discussed this issue. And since Bill Burns is in Doha.
And Cutter SEEI director, I think this is probably more more real than not real.
Okay, And to your point, there are still a lot of details we don't know. The statement that we got from Hamas did not provide further details on what exactly this deal would look like, what it all entails, and we still have not gotten word from Israel. But Erin, it's worth kind of going back to that point you were just making about. Now it kind of does put
the ball in bibing at in Yahu's court. If Hamas says, okay, we agree, what kind of position is he in if he does not do so in return, not just geopolitically, in terms of the consequence he could face from a Biden administration that might be very unhappy with that decision, but also domestically, knowing the great deal of pressure that he is under at home.
Yeah, well, I think you know, to quote the president, here's the deal. Secretary of State Blinkett described the Israeli proposal last week as quote extremely generous unquote, thereby I think locking the administration in to whatever the Prime Minister was prepared to agree to that over the last ten
days Hamas had rejected. So if in fact Hamas's agreement puts on the table new conditions and they expect the Americans to press the Israelis hard, the bid administration is going to have a tougher time having praised N'tagnao's initial off. So this is what I mean by this sort of
diplomatic gamesmanship one upsmanship that's circulating here. But I suspect, given the fact that the President had a conversation with the Prime Minister in the last several hours, the fact that CI Director Burns has been in Cairo and Doha managing all of this. He knows what's in that deal, and I suspect he'll be able to give the administration a pretty accurate read as to what to expect from
the Israelis. I wouldn't imagine under these circumstances. If Hamasa's acceptance is real and if it applies to what the Israelis had agreed to, then I think chances are you'll see you'll see moved to the next phase, which will be the preparation for implementation of phase one. On the other hand, if Hamas has put stuff on the table and the administration thinks it's reasonable and realistic that you know, had not agreed, then you may see some friction. Yeah.
Well, it's worth pointing out that in the statement that Hamas posted on telegram, they said they were accepting a proposal put forward by the two countries of Cutter and Egypt, not Israel. So I wonder if there is maybe a difference in what the administration was talking about versus what Hamas says it's agreeing to.
Today.
Again, we're still awaiting details just finally, Aerin, given that you were suggesting that this may take weeks to actually implement, is there's still a chance in your mind in our final minute with you, that Israel could move into Rafa in the interim, as they have already signaled to civilians there they should begin moving out.
No, well, no, if in fact Hamas has accepted a creditble proposal that's within the Israeli ballpark, I think the odds that the Israelis are moving too ratha under those circumstances to jettison a deal on which the administration has banked almost everything Kirby had meant the other day, there's no plan B. President wants to change the pictures of Gaza, free to ostages, surge your manditarian assistance, and try to manage the domestic political fallout from accusations that he's mismanaged
this war, unhappy with progressives, and the Israelis jettison well, I think you can draw your own conclusions what might happen as a consequence.
All right, Aaron, It's always great to have you on balance of power, but especially on a daylight today with this developing news.
Thank you so much for joining us.
Aaron, David Miller, of course, as a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and I would remind our listeners and viewers what we have right now as a statement from Hamas that it has accepted a ceasefire proposal put forward by.
Cutter and Egypt.
We have not yet heard from either of those two countries, nor have we heard from Israel as to whether it has accepted this agreement. In turn, so we will continue to keep you a prize here on Bloomberg Television and radio, and we'll have much more.
Coming up in just a few minutes. This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
We are dealing with some breaking news. Hamas has said that it is accepting a ceasefire proposal that has been put forward by Mediator's Cutter and Egypt. This is according to a statement that was put on the group's telegram channel. We have not yet though heard fir a word from Israel. Channel twelve now reporting, according to a headline crossing the Bloomberg terminal, that Israel is studying this updated ceasefire proposal.
Remember Hamas has said here, it accepted a proposal put forward by two other countries, Cutter and Egypt, not necessarily the same as the Israeli proposal that we heard about from the Biden administration last week when Secretary of Saint Anthony Blincoln called Israel's proposal generous. We do not have details on what exactly this all may entail, and again no confirmation.
Yet from the other parties involved.
We want to turn now to Genie Shanze Noo, Bloomberg Politics contributor in Chape and Fay Republican Strategists and managing director at ACTAM. Thank you both for being here, Genie, while we wait for a firm confirmation of this news. Of course, it does have great political weight on President Biden domestically, especially ahead of a speech on anti Semitism he is set to give tomorrow on Holocaust Remembrance Day.
What do you just make of the timing of all of this news colliding simultaneously ahead of a big address like that on the day that Columbia University announced its main commencement ceremony is not happening because of protests there. It is a very complex picture, both at home and abroad.
Yeah, I mean it is fascinating because we're less than twenty four hours away from the President's speech for Holocaust Remembrance Day, and the idea that we could also be within sight. Perhaps as you keep talking about, of a cease fire, temporary, I may be permanent, might change the
trajectory of what the President has to say tomorrow. So very very tough for the White House to manage all of this, But I do think that the best case scenario, not just for Joe Biden politically, but more importantly for everybody involved, including and especially the hostages, there would be
a cease fire. But I think we have to be very very cautious on all of this because we still haven't gotten confirmation, and of course we know Israel was on the brink of moving into RAFA, and of course if Hamas put any conditions on this, I think that that could blow the entire thing up. So I think we have a lot more questions here, and that does make the White House's job a little more difficult as they're looking at this big speech tomorrow for the president.
Well, another headline just crossing the Bloomberg terminal. The President of Turkey, Regip Type Erdawan, says that Turkey welcomes Samasa's move to accept the ceasefire. Again, though that's from Turkey, not from Cutter, Egypt or Israe, the three countries that we are awaiting a firm word from chape And just to bring you in here, of course, this is happening roughly seven months into the war between Israel and Hamas and now less than six months ahead of an election
in November. To what extent do you expect this issue, what is happening in the Middle East, the conduct an approach to the relationship with Israel is going to factor into who ultimately wins the presidency come November.
Well, I will qualify this with six months in politics as sort of a lifetime, and with the way that things shore so rapidly in today's day and age, I think there is a chance that this is in everyone's There is a chance that this is at everyone at least in America politics review.
Some people are in an America Poltice review window.
Of course, it will not be for the people going through it and released, so I do think there will be a lessening of it. I think now is probably in retrospect, might be a huge inflection point.
Right the President's going to give his speech, there.
Are talks of cease fires, so it is like Ginny said, is you know, it does put him in a harder position as he's trying to give this speech and navigate the internal domestic politics. But it's a great opportunity for him to get out there talk about the anti Semitism
problem that's happening across the country. He'll be able to, you know, as presidents usually do, scold Israel a little bit, show some support from Palacinian people, and see if he can sort of thread that very careful needle on his side of the aisle, which which in my view is a little bit fractured on you know, support for Israel or the Palestadians or Kasa or whatever is happening on
college campuses these days. So I do think it's it's all colored by that, and I do think he has a huge opportunity, and of course it will be under the shadow of whether there is actually a ceasefire or not. It would be great for the President to be able to stand up there after a ceasefire at least in principle or at least has been announced that they're you know.
Close to one.
That would be I think a good backdrop for his speech to sort of head out of this and into the summer months when economy, gas prices inflation, as people leave college campuses right and go home, students go home, that will wane right in time to convene them to convene two months before the election again after at the end of the summer, but we'll see what the state of the world is at that point.
Yeah.
Well, time is a weird thing in politics shape and your point is very well taken. Six months is basically a lifetime. So I will say what I'm about to say with that caveat that there's only so much polls can tell you, surely six months out. But I do want to point out a few polls that we have gotten over the weekend, one being ABC and IPSOS doing some polling on the general election contest between President Biden and former President Trump. Basically shows they're locked in a
tight race. We all know that excluding people who say they wouldn't vote, Trump is winning forty six to forty four. When you narrow it though to registered voters and then likely voters, Biden forty nine, Trump forty five. So once you get to those who are at actually likely to turn out at the ballot box, Genie Biden is ahead. Does that just underscore that all of this is ultimately going to be at the end of the day about turnout.
It will, And of course, you know, I'm so glad you mentioned the screening. That's critically important. You need to look at likely voters to get a really good sense. But of course, the other issue here is we're talking national polls versus Bloomberg's poll, which is a you know, the critical state that we look at, and those key states are going to decide this election. So the national
polls are obviously fascinating. I love to look at them, but the real question of a winner and a loser here is going to come on those states, you know, those seven critical states. Although Trump's team wants to add Minnesota and Virginia, we understand over the weekend, I don't know that they deserve to be there. That's the other
complication here. But the poll was fascinating because it did show obviously, you know, it is a neck and neck race, and Joe Biden's challenges remain in the demographics young people, African Americans. You know that it is a critical challenge for him. This has to be a referendum on Donald Trump for him to win, and vice versa for you know, Joe Biden.
For Donald Trump to.
Win, it has to be a referendum on Joe Biden. They are both incredibly unpopular.
Well, Jeanie teeing me up perfectly for the next question I wanted to ask chapin, which is are we only really talking about seven swing states or should we be talking about nine. Trump's team says their polling suggests that Minnesota and Virginia are in play.
Chap and you buy it.
Sure, I'll buy it. You know, like you said, it's six months out.
Maybe you know this this game and the map will change, expand and shrink on both sides. I'd love to see a time lapse of you know, internal strategies, you know, electoral maps in each campaign office and see.
How they move and shift over the days.
I do think there will be some wild cards, as always, you know, a state like Virginia may pop at the end for Trump, you know, six.
Months from now. Who knows the point.
I would everything you guys have said so far I think is true. I think the elector to shrinking. And what I mean by that is the persuadable, the persuadables, right. I think Axios this morning or last night had an article about how both campaigns are saying the persuadables in these seven swing states or however many you want to call it is all less than ten percent. So they're fighting for not only these few states, they're fighting for less than ten percent in each of these states as
persuadable voters. So to sort of circle back, it is going to be incredibly important for their basis to be energized and out and voting in full force to sort of, you know, counteract the referendum on each particular candidate, which this is turning out to be. And no one should be surprised by this because you know, Donald Trump and
Joe Biden's name recognition, you know, nobody does. It is not I don't think anyone in this election is because they have to read more about each candidate and figure out who I'm voting right, that's less than ten percent that we're talking about. Everyone else knows these people and has an opinion already, which is the difficulty.
Then you have to get those people to vote.
Yeah, very true.
And when talking about the demographics and the makeup of the Democratic base specifically, Genie, some other polling I wanted to point to Washington Post and IPSOS a poll of war than thirteen hundred Black adults finds only sixty two percent of them say they're absolutely certain to vote. That is down twelve points from the seventy four percent who said so in twenty twenty. And the drop and turnout
interest is sharpest among younger Black people. How is the Biden campaign likely to look at this polling, Genie.
This is devastating for the Bret Biden team. You know, they've got a money and time advantage right now. If anything puts lights of fire under them, it should be those numbers you just read. Joe Biden got eighty four percent of African Americans in twenty twenty. He had them by big numbers Africa Americans, younger African Americans in twenty twenty.
To lose that is devastating for the campaign. So They've got to use the time and the money they have while Donald Trump is in court with this fundraising advantage to appeal to that demographic in these swing and I don't care if we call them seven or nine states. They've got to go on the air and they've got to talk about what a Donald Trump presidency means for
these people. They've got to remind people the impact on healthcare, the impact on reproduction, the impact on the Supreme Court, the impact on freedom and liberty, all of those things that Joe Biden can, you know, look at these polls and say people give them a slight advantage, including in the ABC Bowl, in terms of character. That's the only way they can do it, and it's going to be an uphill battle. These are really difficult numbers with the African American and young community.
Yeah.
Another figure from this poll, nearly one in five black voters who turned out for Biden in twenty twenty say they are less than certain about whether they will vote at all this year. Jeanie Shanzno Bloomberg Politics contributor in Shape and Fay actim managing director and Republican strategist our political panel today, thank you so much for joining me.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then Freud Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg Television and Radio. Or of course, we're keeping an eye on all of the happenings here in Washington, but we also have to keep an eye on what's happening in New York today, as it's a new week in Donald Trump's criminal hush money trial, the proceedings kicking off today with him being found in contempt of court again for another instance of violating the gag order that he has been placed under in this case, and find another one thousand dollars for
that violation. It brings the total finds up to ten thousand dollars after he was charged with nine different counts of that found in contempt of court for nine different instances last week. The thing is he's a billionaire, at least on paper, and the judge seems to recognize that.
He said today in court when handing down this order that he fears that a thousand dollars finds are not acting as a deterrent, and he threatened to actually put the former president in jail, although he did emphasize that he is reluctant to do so might be a last resort. Is there are a number of complicating factors that would be involved in that, including the fact that his former president he is entitled to Secret Service protection. Would make the
whole thing very logistically complicated. So we want to get more now with Josh Naftalis. He is a partner at Palace Partners, also a former federal prosecutor, was the assistant attorney at the Southern District of New York. Thank you so much for being here. On balance of power, Josh, how likely is it in your mind that Donald Trump may actually end up spending some time in jail for violating this gag order?
Thanks for having me. As you said, the judge is trying to avoid that at all costs, which makes sense. He doesn't want to disrupt the trial, and obviously logistically it's a nightmare for the Secret Service. So I think the judge is keeping it out there as an option, but we're not.
There yet obviously.
Well, when you say it would disrupt the trial. Can you just shed some light as to what realistically we're talking about. It was pointed out to me earlier today by one of our legal editors here at Bloomberg that is a frequent occurrence that a defendant is brought in from jail to attend court trial proceedings. How disruptive would it be? Would it just be it lengthens the time of the trial. Would it have to be put on pause for some period of time? What realistically are we talking about?
I think both of those issues our potential complications. It could delay the trial because there's I would imagine the Secret Service would have to adjust and set up a protocol to bringing mister Trump to and from court and how he would be held overnight. That's just you know, secret Service one on one. There's also then the delay that would impact the trial and the worry of telling the jurors potentially the president had been remanded into custody.
And then there's also the appellate issues that this creates. I imagine Donald Trump and his lawyers would argue this is interfering with his defense, that he's no longer able to properly prepare, so all.
Of these delays.
Again, you know, as a government prosecutor, you don't want delays in your trial. You want the evidence to come in and get to the verdict. You don't want to risk losing your jury or have appellate issues get raised.
Fair enough.
And of course it is the aim of protecting not just potential witnesses or likely witnesses in the case, but also members of the jury that this gag order is designed for. Right, Can you just speak to why this is so important that a judge might actually be willing, if not super reluctantly, to throw a former president in jail because of it. Why is this so consequential that incarceration could be justified?
Sure so, I mean, it's the judge's courtroom. He sets the rules, and what mister Trump is doing is he's flouting those rules, including to try to intimidate witnesses or get his narrative out there or such that maybe jurors would learn about it. But in the end, it's the idea that he deserves a fair trial, but so does
the government. He's not allowed to speak outside of the walls of the courtroom and try to get things in front of the jury or just at large to disrupt the witnesses, and that's just how trials are run.
Fair enough, and of course trials are also run with witnesses taking the stand and giving testimony, which we are continue continuing to see today Today was not just about a gag order violation of the actual testimony. We've heard so far from everyone from a former White House aid Hope Hicks to David Pecker, formerly of the National Inquirer. What has been the most compelling so far into the actual substance of the accusations here in the question that the jury is considered.
That's a good question. I mean, I think it's all a mosaic as to what's the most important the government's trying to put in each little piece. Whether it's Hopex and the drama of it, whether it's when we get to Michael Cohen and specifically what was said, whether it's Packer and how the business worked. I'm not sure which is the most dramatic. I mean, Hopeix obviously sounds like it's been.
The most dramatic.
I haven't been in the courtroom, but each piece in the end is important to the government because they're going to pull it all together and say it to the jury. Listen, this shows that he's guilty. It's not just one day they got him. It's all the evidence that comes in over a number of weeks.
Yeah.
Fair enough, And it is worth keeping in mind that there is kind of multiple things that the prosecutors are trying to prove here. One that he falsified business records by misclassifying as legal costs essentially repayments to Michael Cohen over the actual hush money itself. And then the other part of this being that there were political incentives here, that this was done with the effort to influence the
outcome of the twenty sixteen election. So we've heard a lot of substance on the business side in terms of the actual documentation, where money was moving, who was moving it, kind of how all of this logistically worked. Perhaps the more boring testimony perhaps that we could hear. We have yet to hear some of the more salacious testimony that we could hear, including from Stormy Daniels, the Poor and Star herself who was in question in this case, or
Karen McDougall for that matter, a former Playboy model. Will that be mostly just it gets the headlines, It gets the attention of the jury. It's the human interest kind of part of the story that kind of factors into this case. Or could their testimony bring real substance that informs whether or not the jury convicts him of these charges.
Oh, I think there's definitely substance. So what their testimony will will be including because the evidence is going to be why did they agree to take the money, what happened with mister Trump, what was his motive? And in the end, what the issue is for the jury, and I think the government's going to argue is did mister Trump intend to commit these crimes? And when you hear the testimony of the two women, if you hear it from Michael Cohen as so was what mister Trump was saying.
That's how they're gonna be able to put the pieces together and say it's not just him signing checks. He knew exactly what he was doing was wrong.
Well, on the subject of Michael Cohen, I'm glad you brought him up. Obviously, one of the instances or several of them in which Trump has been found in violation of this gag order was attacking him, calling him things like a sleezebag. For example, clearly the defense is trying to paint him a picture of him as being an untrustworthy witness because he has in fact spent time in prison and lied and all of these things. All of
that is a matter of fact. Michael Cohen, of course, maintain is that he did so in protecting Donald Trump, so everything should be viewed with that lens. But does that make him a credible or a compromised witness in your mind?
Josh So, mister Cohens is obviously a difficult witness, but I don't think he brings that much more baggage to the table than the average cooperating witness, which is, most cooperating witnesses are being called because they were involved in.
The scheme itself.
There's an old saying that prosecutors use, which is, you don't call priests and rabbis to testify as to what happened, because those aren't the type of people that commit the crimes, and the defendant you call the co conspirators. So obviously, mister Cohen brings a lot of baggage to the table,
but that's sort of the point. That's the kind of person you ask to commit a crime for you and with you and I think the government's going to be able to weaponize that as much as mister Trump is afraid of him.
Fair enough, and final question for you, Josh, as we watch the remainder of this week of the trial unfold potential, we have several more weeks to go. How important is it just the idea that the defense could so doubt in the mind of even just a single juror enough to make sure that a conviction does not happen, Rather than trying to disprove whether or not these payments were actually a made or anything like that, the actual evidence of the case, where the money was going, and how
it was classified. Is it just about casting enough of a shadow over this idea that this really was intended to change the outcome of twenty sixteen.
So I think the strategy that had his lawyer's todd An email and Susan are going to go after is trying to find that one jar and so the doubt. They don't need to prove to twelve people that mister Trump is innocent not guilty, They need to find one person who just can't do it. Whether that's because they don't want to do it, because they don't think the
fact support it. Whatever the reason is, they're just trying to get the lowest common denometer level of proof in front of one drew such that the jury hanks.
I think that's his best option.
I mean, the idea that twelve people would find him not guilty is unlikely. It almost never happens in a criminal case, but particularly one like this where the evidence is pretty straightforward. That really the question is, you know, did he intend to do it?
All?
Right?
Joshnav Talis, great to have you back here on Lumberg Television and Radio, former federal prosecutor and partner at Palace Partners.
We appreciate your time today.
Now, I do you just want to quickly update you on some breaking news we have been following throughout this hour. Hamas, of course, had said in a statement that it had accepted a cease fire deal proposed by Egypt and Cutter. We now do have confirmation from the US State Department that Hamas has issued a ceasefire response. This is according to spokesperson Matt Miller. He says the US is now
reviewing that response from Hamas with regional partners. Again, we have not yet heard firmly from Israel whether or not, They too are going to accept the proposal in question. We will bring you more details on Andberg television and radio as we have them. We also want to get you an update on what's happening on Capitol Hill. As Congress, or at least the House is back in Washington today. The Senate isn't going to be back until tomorrow, but there is a big deadline looming at the end of
this week. The FAA reauthorization needs to happen by May tenth. The question is will it. Jack Fitzpatrick covers Congress for Bloomberg Government, and he is joining me now from Capitol Hill. So Jack, obviously we're working under a deadline here, and yet the Senate isn't even in today. Is this going to happen in time or are we looking at another short term extension.
It's a real gamble at this point, they have said. Senator Schumer has said he does not want another short term extension. The key question is can they negotiate a unanimous consent agreement to hold a quick vote in the Senate, which is contingent on allowing amendments that members want. That's usually the demand from a variety of members that they want an amendment on this piece of legislation that they like, or this tweak to the bill that is still being negotiated.
It is not easy to get unanimous consent in the Senate, but we know that if they don't get that via an agreement on a package of amendment votes, likely amendments that would fail so that they don't change the underlying bill but at least give votes, then they're not going to make the Friday deadline and they would be forced to rely on a short term extension. So that's what's being negotiated now. It is dicey when you bring in tough major pieces of legislation and say I want an
amendment on that. For example, the tax bill that the House passed that Senator Widen has pushed to attach to this FAA bill. That is a tough one because this is a carefully negotiated package, so making major changes would also cause a hold up potentially, But they're still negotiating those amendment votes and trying to get it done by the end of this week.
Yeah, I guess when it says it's been described the last train to leave the station, everybody's going to try and get as much baggage on that train is as humanly possible. So we'll be watching for that in the Senate this week.
Jack.
Meantime, in the House, we also are and watch to see if Marjorie Taylor Green, the congresswoman from Georgia, does as she was promised to do and actually force a vote on her motion to vacate against how Speaker Mike Johnson. Do we have any indication of when that might actually happen.
It could be as soon as today. She is supposed to meet with the Speaker today. According to some of my colleagues, the congresswoman has not backed down at all from her claim that she will force a vote. She was tweeting earlier that she's being threatened with losing her committee assignments, so there is no detante. There is no easing of tensions there. We don't know about the exact timing,
but it could be as soon as today. There is a plan to vote to table it, which is a little easier for Democrats to vote to do away with the motion rather than casting a vote for Mike Johnson as speaker. But as for the timing, it really is up to Marjorie Taylor Green as to when she pulls the trigger on this and makes it happen, and she is not divulged exactly when that's going to happen, other than saying that she is going to do it.
Yeah, So we'll be watching for updates from that meeting, which is supposed to be.
A later this afternoon.
Jack, just quickly in our final minute with you, it's also worth parting out that a Democratic Congressman, Henry Quaer of Texas, was indicted by the DOJ. We learned this on Friday, accused of accepting six hundred thousand dollars in bribes. Are we going to see an effort to oust him like we saw when Congressman former Congressman George Santos was kicked out of the body before he was actually found guilty in a court of law.
That is possible. We haven't gotten to that point just yet because this just broke on late on Friday. He did have to step down from a committee leadership role. These are serious charges each, some of them carry sentences of up to twenty years, so it's not something that members are overlooking. It's certainly something to keep an eye on to see if, especially starting with Republicans push for him to resign. That is a possibility.
Well, we know you will have your eye on that for us, as you have your eye on so many things on Capitol Hill. Jack Fitzpatrick, Congressional reporter for Bloomberg Government, thank you so much for joining me.
Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
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