Israel Plans Possible Rafah Operation, Trump Trial Continues - podcast episode cover

Israel Plans Possible Rafah Operation, Trump Trial Continues

May 10, 202432 min
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Watch Joe and Kailey LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. On this edition, Joe and Kailey speak with:

  • Bloomberg White House Correspondent Josh Wingrove about plans from the Biden Administration to impose more tariffs on China.
  • Attorney Robert McWhirter about the latest developments from the Donald Trump hush money trial in New York.
  • Bloomberg Politics Contributors Rick Davis and Jeanne Sheehan Zaino about the Senate passing its version of the FAA reauthorization bill.
  • Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner as Israel's war cabinet approves expanding military operations in Rafah.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then proud with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

We also had a great reporting from our team here at Bloomberg overnight about what this administration is looking to do with tariffs on a number of things, but electric vehicles coming from China being one.

Speaker 3

I'm scratching my head on this one.

Speaker 4

We're talking about a potential fourfold increase in EV tariffs, and we've got a Chinese EV maker going public today. I'll save my questions on that for later. Josh Wingrove is helping with our reporting from the White House, though, of course, Bloomberg White House correspondents with us at the table right now with more on this. Josh, this could happen as soon as next week, is what you're telling us.

Will these all be rolled out in one event? How is this communicated by an administration that might not want to look like the Trump White.

Speaker 5

House right now? That's our expectation that's going to be one event. Remember, they've already given a teaser with that announcement on steel and aluminum a few weeks ago in Pittsburgh, and so we think that they're going to roll these out right now. The tariff on Chinese auto evs is twenty seven and a half percent, so quadrupling that big number.

I mean, it's still I guess possible that given sometimes the rate or the cost of producing goods there, that they could still try to find their way to be competitive. But this is really about sort of heading off what they expect to be both in steel and aluminum as well as cars, an increase that's coming as opposed to

a market that already exists. I'm sure they'll frame it like you know, you don't wait for the hurricane to hit before you put the storm windows up, right, And they are expecting trying to try to sort of dump its way out of its woes right now when it comes to steel and aluminum and potentially try to overtake the auto sector. And as we know, the auto sector in every country has been a close guarded political thing for quite some time. The twenty twenty four overlays here

or strong, but this is a big one. This is one of the biggest things Joe Biden has done on China and in his administration.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and it's it's worth pointing out that while we have had this administration taking this more targeted approach, it is in some ways, while they're both being protectionist, slightly more muted that Donald Trump, who says, okay, blanket everything with sixty percent plus tariffs. I'm potentially going to put one hundred percent tariffs on all vehicles.

Speaker 6

He said in the past.

Speaker 2

Why would why would they? What would hold the Biden administration back from doing something that intense or extreme.

Speaker 5

Inflation in part? I mean that has been the argument against this. You start tacking on these things. You know, Trump always said China is paying these tariffs. Of course that's not the case, right. Tariffs are paid by the importer and passed on in part or in entirety to the consumer. So that was sort of hanging over this as well. I think one thing here that Biden has been weighing is, you know, this is about sort of

like a strategic long term competition. You go back and watch everything Cap and Tie has said, you know, everything Jenny Yellen has said, and they talk about, you know, China sort of flooding the zone in key sectors, trying to corner the mark on critical minerals, over capacity, key whatever, and they're trying to box the US out and thinking long term in a way that Western democracies don't always do or have the luxury to do so. Right now,

I think that is the lens on this. So autos remember, of course Michigan, you know, key battleground for the twenty twenty four election. If Joe Biden announces this, I'd be surprised if we didn't see him in Michigan pretty soon after talking about it. And then these other critical sectors again, solar cells we understand is going to have a higher tariff, right and maybe some battery components. It's still a little unclear.

Other products could also see increases. We just don't know the full list, and we don't also know how much

it's jumping. One final thing is that one scenario here was well, Joe Biden might raise some on critical industries, key battleground type of industries and lower others on more benign consumer goods and trying to make it a wash overall to mute the reaction in China and perhaps mute the risk of retaliation that could hit, for instance, American farmers, as it did in the first Trump sort of trades bat with China. Our reporting is that's not the case.

They're not exploring large scale reductions in other categories that would offset the increases that they're planning.

Speaker 3

That's fascinating.

Speaker 4

So this presidential campaign will impart be the battle of the tariffs.

Speaker 5

And the battle over who can look tougher on China, who can beat and that they both want to look tough on.

Speaker 1

Jaying this.

Speaker 3

If it weren't for Donald Trump.

Speaker 4

You mentioned Michigan, he could potentially you could see a world in which he had gone there on his own.

Speaker 3

But Donald Trump started this.

Speaker 5

I think Joe Biden would bark up this tree either way. I mean, I'm reminded of the steel discussion in the Japanese buying US steel. I mean, Joe Biden is an you know, eighty one year old guy from Scranton, Pennsylvania doesn't like the idea of selling US steel, and I think that is informing a lot of his approach. Joe Biden, Well, you know, under Obama was tasked with rescuing the auto sector. The idea of Chinese EV's putting aside the potential data

concerns that a lot of people have with them. But you know, just simply the market share question, Joe Biden, I don't think would have liked that as well. So, you know, we do have bipartisan consensus on a lot of these things, right, Biden and Trump are both using these terraffs. Of course, Biden's essentially deciding to keep in place the vast majority of the Trump terraffs, which of course a lot of Democrats didn't necessarily love when you

put them in. So there is agreement here, kind of a rare point of agreement, to say the least, between the two of them.

Speaker 2

Finally, when we're talking about the industries, at least that we know of that you're reporting indicates EVS, solar batteries that will power these green technologies. Doesn't the Biden administration want more of these technologies in the United States? Right? They want to transition, They want to reach and at zero within a certain number of years. By holding China back from being able to enter this market, does it actually run counter to some of those goals that they have.

Speaker 5

This is one of the things that they're grappling with and why we will be paying such close attention. I would love to tell you right now. I would love to tell you so right now, we just don't know what solar and battery type goods they will maintain or maybe even potentially reduced tariffs on, because they're critical for feeding American growth in that sector versus ones that they're going to raise tariffs on to keep them out from

undercutting the sector. It's a balancing act, and right now we just don't know how they're going to split it up.

Speaker 2

Well, all right, Well, great reporting from josh Win Grove and our team here at Bloomberg. Key of course covers the White House for us absolutely fascinating and to his point, Joe, the idea that everyone wants to be a hawk on China, and that doesn't just go for the presidential race. You could say the same about Congress as well, and protectionist policy. Regardless of what administration ultimately we end up with come January twenty twenty five, it's probably going.

Speaker 6

To be a common denominator.

Speaker 4

Well, that's absolutely right, and you've been seeing the solar stocks among others move on. This just incredible to think that, you know, reminded in our last hour this is the longest general election campaign in modern history, and we're going to be having conversations like this for months further, which could be a real strain on our relationship with countries like China.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and not only is it the longest election campaign in general election campaign in history that makes this remarkable, it's also the first time we've ever seen a president and current presumptive Republican nominee in criminal court at the same time that this general election campaign is underway. Because yes, it's another day in court in New York in the

hush money trial of Donald Trump. After Stormy Daniels had two days of testimony and cross examination earlier this week, we understand that Michael Cohen, his former attorney and fixer, will be testifying on Monday. So where exactly do things stand for the prosecution and defense joining us now here on balance of powers. Robert mcmurder, he is a criminal and constitutional law attorney. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's always great to have you here.

Speaker 6

Robert.

Speaker 2

Let's just begin with Stormy Daniels. Considering the salacious nature of much of her testimony, the attempts of the defense to actually have a mistrial declared over it. Does she end up helping or hurting the prosecution's case more from what you saw.

Speaker 7

Well, I think that she certainly helped the prosecution's case. I don't think that the defense was very good at really attagging her or her credibility. She was able to hold her own ground, and I think she very well kind of presented what those facts were. But I do think it's important to put this in context, which is, even if you do not believe anything that Stormy Daniels says, it does not mean that mister Trump did not commit

a crime here. What seems that the defense doesn't seem to dispute that he paid one hundred and thirty thousand dollars to stornymy Daniels. Now, either he was doing it because he had slept with her and he didn't want that story to get out, or like he's trying to imply that she's an extortionist and he paid it in order to keep that story from getting out. It doesn't

matter because it's still a campaign finance violation. You kind of put out one hundred and thirty thousand dollars as a benefit to a campaign, You got to report that, and the heart of this case is actually mister David Pecker's testimony and the paper trail they have showing all of this and kill little scheme which was a benefit to Donald Trump's presidential campaign that was unreported under campaign

finance laws. And whether you believe Stormy Daniels or not is irrelevant because he's not disputing that one hundred and thirty thousand dollars went out the door from him. So it's really interesting. The prosecution is really put together a very smart case. It's not just about some misdemeanor with Stormy Daniels. It's about violating campaign finance laws, which are felonies.

Speaker 4

Does Donald Trump need new lawyers, Robert, I don't know if you're available right now, but Wanmer Shawn the judge made it pretty clear that they're not doing their job very well calling for mistrials instead of objecting in real time to witnesses like Stormy Daniels.

Speaker 3

Are they doing a disservice to Donald Trump.

Speaker 7

Well, they most certainly are, But I think that's just part of a silly tech. Everybody knows you object at the time the testimony comes out to allow a judge to take corrective action. If you want to make a drama out of the mistrial theme, because this is Donald Trump's political theme. It's a witch hunt. It's bad, it

should be a mistrial, blah blah blah. Well, then you hold off doing your proper objections and then object and ask for a mistrial, because you know, asking for a mistrial is way more sexy than just giving some objection during testimony. So I just think it's just part of the show, to be honest with you. The quality of his lawyering, well, that's that's an open question. Donald Trump

is an impossible client. I mean reports that you get is he's angry with his lawyers for not being aggressive enough.

Speaker 3

I think that's just silly.

Speaker 7

And his lawyers wouldn't be servative if they were. So does he need no lawyers?

Speaker 8

I don't know.

Speaker 3

I'm not sure i'd be available for him.

Speaker 6

So we got that well.

Speaker 2

As we speak, Robert in our audience on Bloomberg Television and could see Donald Trump is actually outside the courthouse right now addressing the media, appears to be reading some papers and holding them up for the cameras to see. Of course, if he says anything relevant, we will bring that to our television and radio audience, and once trial proceedings wrap up for today Robert, come Monday, we understand

Michael Cohen will be on the stand. He has been pegged, or at least described as the prosecution star witness, considering what we saw though in the defence's cross examination of Stormy Daniels, and knowing there are questions around the credibility of Michael Cohen, given, for example, he spent time in jail. How difficult is it going to be for the prosecution and for the defense to deal with him as a witness.

Speaker 7

Well, it's interesting. Michael Cohen, I believe, is a much more important witness to the actual crime than, for instance, Stormy Daniels is. But he's also pretty much an open book. We know exactly what he's going to say, and we know exactly what they're going to do to try to attack him, and he's got a pretty good public narrative about he kind of had an epiphany about his role in helping Donald Trump, and he has gone ahead and presented that.

Speaker 9

Now.

Speaker 7

It's interesting, though, because what the prosecutor has done is put a whole series of other witnesses, including Hope Hicks, to lay the foundation for what Michael Cohen says, not the foundation for what Stormy Daniels has testified, but for what Michael Cohen says. So even if they attack him, well, I'm sorry, these payments are still going out the door and Michael Cohen was facilitating them and that is the crime here. So you know, can the prosecution win points, yes,

can the defense attack them, certainly? But I'll give an example. There are cases large drug conspiracies that go to trial all the time with very ugly cooperating witnesses who the jury dislikes, who are not nice people, but they believe them perfectly fine when they point the finger at other co defendants. And there are convictions that happen that way all the time. So the jury doesn't have to like

Michael Cohen. They might think he's a total scumbag, but that doesn't mean they're not going to believe his testimony about what occurred here, our.

Speaker 4

Last moment here, Robert, the prosecution says it will rest next week.

Speaker 3

Does that mean we're on time?

Speaker 5

Oh?

Speaker 7

Yes, In fact, I had predicted this case would go quickly because you won. It's a very good prosecution too.

Speaker 3

This is a good judge.

Speaker 7

He knows his stuff and he doesn't waste time. I'm not sure. Also, how much more of the defense has got to say? I mean, what are they going to put on after this? So I think this trial is going to be done certainly, mid Well, I would be shocked if this trial isn't done before the end of this month.

Speaker 3

You have it.

Speaker 4

You've been consistent on that, Robert, and we appreciate that he's the one who said it would be done in fewer than say to eight weeks. Robert mcwurd or, criminal constitutional law attorney, Thank you as always for coming back to talk to us.

Speaker 3

Robert.

Speaker 4

Next week, Kaylee could be something else with Michael Cohen at last on the stand.

Speaker 6

Yeah, we've been long waiting for it.

Speaker 2

Who knows how many days of testimony we could see from him again, we saw two full days from Stormy Daniels effectively. But if the prosecution thinks they're going to be done by the end of next week and they're going to have Wednesday off, potentially Friday too for Baron Trump's graduation, we could be getting close to the endgame here.

Speaker 3

This is true.

Speaker 4

We'll stay in touch with Robert mcwurder on this story for you. We're going to assemble our panel next Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino with us on the Fastest Show in Politics. Thanks for being with us on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken Just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecar playing nroid Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

You're in Washington, where things might be getting a little noisier in terms of jet noise, at least at Ronald Reagan National Airport. No, because guess what, Joe, For all of the talk around maybe forcing an amendment vote to make sure that no extra flights were added right out of DCA, and the best efforts of the senators of neighboring states Virginia and Maryland, the Senate passed the FAA reauthorization last night, and guess what.

Speaker 3

All the flights are in there.

Speaker 4

So so I'll keep waking up when the airplanes start taking off every day, unless that becomes an earlier call. Next door to National Airport, where I happened to reside. I'm just wondering the hour I spent on the tarmac last weekend waiting for a gate.

Speaker 3

Does that get longer or shorter because of this?

Speaker 2

Well, the senators from Virginia and Maryland were arguing that it would make delays.

Speaker 6

They sure did delayed.

Speaker 4

Tim Kaine and cross safety issue, Mark Warner what they said, that's correct.

Speaker 6

Van Holland not happy.

Speaker 3

That's right.

Speaker 4

Look, we've had a series of, you know, close calls on the runways here the tarmac. I don't have to go through. Wheels are falling off airplanes. But we're going to add more flights at National.

Speaker 10

Let's do it.

Speaker 6

Can't wait.

Speaker 4

It's going to be fun, is our panel here? Rick Davis knows about this, so does Genie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors. They actually get something done on the Senate. Although Rick I have to ask you about this. He used to deal with these flights with John McCain right getting out of National Airport. Didn't you guys widen the perimeter the radius on this thing?

Speaker 1

Is it?

Speaker 3

Should these flights be added or what?

Speaker 9

Yeah?

Speaker 11

John McCain was under enormous pressure when he was a Commerce chairman to add flights, and he did, and one of them actually went to Arizona. And prior to that you had I remember this connection. And John McCain, to his credit, never took the direct flight after having approved it, so he didn't want people to think he was doing it out of self interest and kind of the opposite of the Virginia delegation. You were just mentioning who out of their own self interest said no more new flight.

So the bottom line is it's going to get more congested at National Airport.

Speaker 1

Shock and surprise.

Speaker 2

I just have to say, as someone who has lived in both Washington and New York, I would take Reagan National Airport over LaGuardia, JFK or New York basically every.

Speaker 6

Day of the week. Genie, I don't know. I don't know if you agree with me on that one.

Speaker 2

But it's also worth noting that the Senate has passed this new flights included. Yes, but now that the Senate's done this and the House just has to pass it next to make sure this thing is reauthorized for the next five years. Did we just see effectively all major legislative work wrapped up for the one hundred and eighteenth Congress. We did.

Speaker 8

First of all, Kaylee, I couldn't agree more. All of those people who live around La Guardians JFK. They feel your cunning pain, but you know they felt it for a long time up here, you know, I think. So, you know, it's getting noisier in the skies over DC, but quieter in Congress, as they say, because this is

probably the last big bill to go out. I mean, will you know, some movement on the farm bill, of course, and thinking about potentially the issue of the budget for next year at least by far as extending the deadline beyond the election. But you know, that's pretty much it. And I think, you know, you do have some people in Congress who are sad about that prospect because there's

other things they wanted to get done. And of course it is sort of you know, the coming end of one of the most historic congresses in not such a great way in terms of the number of bills they've been able to pass. So you know, between the speaker fights the lack of bills, it has been quite a historic Congress, and not for great reasons.

Speaker 4

Well, we saw a lot of important things happen this week, including the attempt at ouster of the Speaker of the House, and Mike Johnson has been talking about this sat down with Politico Rick to talk about the experience and what he thinks might follow it, remembering that he was saved in part with the help of Democrats. Here's Mike Johnson in his conversation with Politico.

Speaker 10

Look, we have a job to do here. We have to govern. I'm glad that that was done. I mean, let's rip the bandad off and get it done. I regret that it had to come to that. I spent a lot of time talking with Thomas Massey and Marjorie Taylor Green and even Paul goos are about it. It's the way I operated.

Speaker 4

And now apparently he says he actually spoke with Marjorie Taylor Green, Tom Massey Rick as soon as they got off the floor following this motion to vacate vote. Does Mike Johnson try to rebuild the Republican conference or just walk with the help of Democrats from here, you know?

Speaker 11

I mean, there's so much anxiety now within the Republican Caucus in this latest attempt by Marjorie Taylor Green and tapas top of the leadership. It only exasperated this. These people really dislike each other. I mean, there's no putting Humpty dumpty back together again in this caucus. And insomuch as they're gonna make it to election day, and if Republicans win the majority in the House, they're gonna have to really look inside and say how we gonna manage this.

Whether there's one majority leader, you know, one vote that gets them into majority, or if it's you know ten, they still have a massive split in their caucus. And so I think it's really going to be incumbent upon Johnson just to keep the voter float between now an

election day. Don't cause any more consternation, and you have to and I'm sure he was telling those members who tried to ask him, like, can we just focus on the elections and not focus on, you know, your sort of party tricks that make you get more clicks in your social media and let's just get down to the

business of governing. So there is a frustration within the Republican Party with each other, much more so than with the Democrats, which I think was reflected in this interview where he talks about hot Gem Jeffery's in a very that's unlike how he talks about some of his own Republican caucus members.

Speaker 2

Yeah, it's pretty remarkable to hear the not reverent but at least kind language for some of the Democrats in this interview, Genie. But as Rick was just talking about how he basically Mike Johnson was probably to all of his colleagues.

Speaker 6

Look, you just need to focus on the campaign.

Speaker 2

It is, after all, an election year, and right now, the prevailing thinking is that the House is more likely to flip back to the Democrats than to stay in Republican hands, just given the map, given to what you were speaking to earlier, Genie, the dysfunction, the general lack of legislative work that has been done over the last

year and a half. If they don't do much going forward, can they do anything to change that status quo assumption, to change the mind of the opinion of this Republican led House of Representatives.

Speaker 8

Yeah, you know, I don't think they can change the view people have of the dysfunction that has been the House. That's why they all want to get out of there, get back to their districts and do something that our representatives do quite well across the board, which is serve constituents. That's why they have really high reelection rates. I think it's going to be a close election. I have to tell you, I was struck by the fact in that interview that that Mike Johnson, you know, is hearkening back

to you know, Tip O'Neal, Ronald Reagan. He wants a time in Washington that no longer exists. And I'm worried about him, quite frankly, because he didn't pay as much lip service to Donald Trump as he may need to to retain his position should they win. Like when they asked him about the issue of Jack Smith, he was like, yeah, no, nothing we can do. We're not going to go for that. So, you know, I think there's some real questions here. And since Rick is like to read, you know, likes to

read truths. Now we know that Donald Trump has been speaking to that and the video that was out there him saying he just loves Marjorie Taylor Green. So if I was Mike Johnson, I would hug Donald Trump a little closer if he wants to keep this job going forward, whether as Speaker or Minority leader.

Speaker 4

Wow, well, I'll tell you what I have hope, Rick and Jeanie and Kayley, who, by the way, interviewed Senator Rafael Warnock earlier this week and a very important announcement this morning, and I'll bet you Rick has memories of this. Rafael Warnock, Democrat from Georgia, and Senator Bill Cassidy, Republican from Louisiana, of course, are going to be national co chairs of National Seersucker Day. And that's of course a big deal in the US Senate, the eleventh annual, Rick,

It'll be celebrated June thirteenth. It's things like Seersucker Day and the great Senate tradition that keep the gears turning in Washington?

Speaker 3

Am I wrong?

Speaker 11

I'm trying to choose between my pink pinstripe seersucker or my blue pin stripe seersucker. But you'll see me in it on Bloomberg.

Speaker 3

That's a big promise. I have a lot to live up to there. I'm not sure I could pull that off like Rick.

Speaker 2

So maybe when Rick is back in the five PM edition of Power will have seen an outfit change.

Speaker 6

Perhaps, Rick, is that a commitment?

Speaker 3

Do I have to red exactly?

Speaker 4

You're on the record, Rick, I don't think most Americans knew there was a pink seer sucker Actually we're learning a lot as we go.

Speaker 3

Here, I think about the blue and white. Are you with me there?

Speaker 8

Yeah?

Speaker 3

Sure?

Speaker 4

All right, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano, thank you for humoring us as always and for the great analysis our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors.

Speaker 3

June thirteen, Kaylee put it on the calendar.

Speaker 6

All right, there we go.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo car Play, and then Prouno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 4

We are still waiting for word on a potential cease fire, and now there is an expectation that the State Department will soon submit a report to Congress that could be highly critical about Israel's conduct in Gaza. Kayley, this is something that is following Joe Biden as president and as a presidential candidate, and got a lot more complex this week. This report could make this more difficult yet absolutely.

Speaker 2

Of course, we heard from President Biden in his CNN interview earlier this week about the pause shipment of bombs that the US for now has put on hold to Israel. He said, these have been used to kill civilians in Gaza, and part of the reason that the US is not sending them, at least at this time is out of concern of how they may be used against a city in which there is more than a million Palestinian civilians

currently taking shelter. They're very concerned about Rafa and are of course repeatedly warning the Israeli government and the Israeli Army not to conduct a massive operation there.

Speaker 6

But in the face of.

Speaker 2

That, the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's still rather defiant. He had this to say in an interview just yesterday.

Speaker 9

I've said in the Holocaust memorial service that we had the other day, I said in the Holocaust we stood alone, but we were defenseless, and today, if Israel has to stand alone, we'll stand alone.

Speaker 4

That was on the Doctor phil program, yes, Kayleie, which is really incredible when you consider the optics there, the audience they were trying to reach.

Speaker 3

I know, they apparently have a long relationship, but that was not.

Speaker 6

By accident, No, certainly not.

Speaker 2

And of course he has also said in his commentary over the last day or so that Israel will fight tooth and nail if they need to, because they have a fight, of course that they are looking to finish. We want to get more perspective on this now with Dale Buckner. He is the CEO of Global Guardian. He also is a retired Army colonel. Dale, thanks so much for coming to us here on Balance of Power on

Bloomberg TV and Radio. When we consider what this rop operation ultimately may look like, what difference does the receipt of these US weapons or not ultimately make.

Speaker 12

Hayley, In the short term, I don't think it makes a lot of difference.

Speaker 3

And here's why.

Speaker 12

Sixty nine percent of all of the military support that Israel has comes from the United States. They have a lot of munitions as of right now. So as you think about going in, if the United States was to stop as of this week sending two thousand to thirty two one hundred pound bombs, that's the primary thing that's being pulled back. In the short term, it doesn't make

much difference. Now, this goes on for another six months, a year, two years, and or Israeli the Israelis then turn north and as discussed previously, start to then escalate towards Lebanon. Then it would have a real long term effect.

Speaker 4

We've been hearing about shelling in Rafa, We've been hearing about the IDF controlling the gates on the Egyptian border in Rafa, and other operations that have been happening inside the city. Is the invasion of Rafa already underway.

Speaker 12

So it is underway, it's very limited. If you look at the map in the southeast corner down near the Rafa gate. So far the IDF has gone into in a very limited capacity. Now, as discussed and just recently announced today, the War Cabinet has approved a larger scale operation. That being said, don't expect a massive IDF invasion overnight

or in the next few days. You have to understand there's about four to six battalions of MOSS left and more importantly, and this is really the key tactically, the remaining hostages that we believe are alive and those four to six battalions are all in a very small area. So as you think about this, this is where precision will matter, and this is where you can expect you're trying to thread the needle where you're trying to take out and a trit the Hamas fighters that are left.

At the same time, the real risk of dropping large munitions is you could start killing Israeli hostages. This is going to be very difficult.

Speaker 2

Well, and even if you are trying to be precise, Dale, what we consistently hear about Hamas is that they use women and children as literal human shields that they specifically hide. Have their operations based in areas in which there is a high likelihood of collateral damage?

Speaker 6

Is there?

Speaker 2

I guess my real question is is there any way that Israel can do this, can take out the remaining battalions without that death toll going higher than the north of thirty thousand it already is.

Speaker 12

Yeah, I think that you can. On the outskirts and the perimeter of this, you can continue to attret Hamas, especially if they have good intelligence. Now where it gets really messy, and make no mistake, war is messy. As precise as it appears to be on video games, that's not the real world. We've already experienced this now since October seventh. Trying to separate civilians and hostages is almost

an impossible task. So to your point, Kayley, I think that on the perimeter you can continue to put pressure ultimately hoping as you think about the negotiations, we're probably down to two or three key terms as we look forward to trying to find a ceasefire. This is pressure on the outskirts. As I talked to Joe last time, Nott Yahoo has been saying for several months now he's going into to Rafa and he has it not at scale now, it's limited. Now I think you see attacks

in the periphered. He continue a trit put pressure diplomatically and from a military standpoint, and ultimately try and find a path to a negotiation while applying limited tactical pressure.

Speaker 4

Kale, We've been focused on the South for the balance of this conversation. Are you hearing anything new about Israel moving to the north and if it does, in fact decides to make a move on Hesballah, will it be this type of approach, starting small before going to scale.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Speaker 12

So if you're if you're watching closely, there's been an escalation in the north. Three IDF soldiers have now been killed in the last twenty four hours. There is increases in attacks both sides. So yes, as we've talked Joe, there's a movement afoot it's limited and to your point, I do think this starts out in a limited capacity as they figure out. Again, you have different agendas being played out. You have a political agenda, you have a

man Tearian agenda, a diplomatic agenda. All these things are not aligned right now and it's going to be very interesting to see what happens next. No one knows when and how, but there is ben and Essa has been an escalation on that Lebanese border, and depending on how this pressure in the South and the negotiations go, that will be an indicator what might be next steps in the North with Lebanon.

Speaker 4

Stay tuned to this space for more on that. Dale Buckner, it's great to see you, Dale, Thanks for coming back to talk just as the CEO of Global Guarding and a retired Army colonel to disaperies.

Speaker 3

In the field.

Speaker 4

Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.

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