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Happy Friday, Welcome to the threshold of the weekend Bloomberg Sound On on the radio, satellite, and YouTube. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where we're counting down here right three days to Iowa, one week to a partial government shutdown. We'll get back to Iowa in a minute because we have news from Capitol Hill. As the Speaker of the House says he is standing by the deal, maybe we will not be shutting down next week, although how we
get it all done in time is another matter. The Speaker did talk to reporters earlier, remembering the reagreement as we called it between the Speaker and Chuck Schumer on top line spending levels. Without them, We're nowhere here, he is from a short time ago.
Our topline agreement remains.
We are getting our next steps together, and we are working toward a robust appropriations process. All rights simple as that. Nothing to see here, move right along.
The issue, of course, is the few number of legislative days left to make this happen, and it begs the question, as we're hearing from the Senate, what about a CR? Will there be a short term of funding solution here? Because obviously, folks, as we've been hearing very loudly on the Freedom Caucus to the Speaker's right flank, if I can even put it that way, are not in favor of a CR. Bob Good the share of the Freedom Caucus saying don't fear the shutdown, and we've heard that
from him before. The question is how it all might come together, remembering the lattered CR right this next Friday is the first tranch, the first four spending bills February tecod. The rest of the government would shut down, and that's the big stuff like defense, which is why a lot of people are looking at.
That is the real date. And this is where we start our conversation.
With Congressman Buddy Carter, the Republican from Georgia, is with us on this Friday, and it's good to see you. Congressman. Welcome back to Bloomberg. What do you think is going to happen here? Can we get is done in time? Or does a CR seem inevitable.
At this point, it does seem like a CR is inevitable. I don't see how we could get it done. Not the way the Senate operates, not the way that not the amount of time it's going to take for them to get it through their body. I just don't see that happening. And I suspect even though this speaker has said that he does not want any more short term crs, I don't see any way around it short of a partial shutdown.
The idea of a CR for the rest of the fiscal year has even been floated. Congressman, is that the world we're in? Or would a little more time actually help write these twelve spending bills?
Well, I think a little more time would help. You know, we've been out for three weeks with Christmas and everything, and then but the time, a little bit of time would help. I do think we're closer than what it may appear. We got the top line number.
Now.
I know that there are some in our conference who were not happy with that top line number, But I don't know that they're not happy about the top line number as much as they are about the side deals. The side deals is what really bothers me that much, and that takes that one point five to nine up to almost one point eight, I mean, and it's the
side deals are what really bothers me. Now, having said that, I will tell you that I think that the Speaker was successful in getting some good immediate cuts in the budget, real money cuts, ten billion dollars in IRS, six billion dollars in in the COVID slush fund, clawing that back sixteen billion dollars. And that's nothing to laugh at. That's real money. So that was good. And we also got some of the budget gimmicks that are just ridiculous, that
we got rid of some of those. So there was some gain in this, and I think the Speaker did the best he could do at this time with a slim majority and only one leg of the three legged stool.
Yeah, you consider yourself an ally of the speaker right because he's hearing some pretty tough talk from the Freedom Caucus. We're hearing motion to vacate again, or at least on the table, the idea that if he does what Kevin McCarthy did, he could be fired.
Where do you fall on this representative?
Well, first of all, I thought Kevin McCarthy got a raw deal, and I was a big supporter of Kevin, and I just think that was absolutely wrong. I am a supporter of Mike Johnson's I want him to be successful. I want him to help I want to help him be successful, and I want to help us be successful. Look, no one wants to cut spending as much as I do. It is out of control. Let me tell you right now, the federal government is taking in through revenue and everything
else and land deals, whatever it may be. Six point four tree dollars. That's six point four treeion dollars that we are spending every year. That's two hundred and four thousand dollars per second. The speed of light is one hundred and eighty six thousand miles per second. We are spending money faster than the speed of light. That is unsustainable. We've got to stop that. We've got to stop this
outrageous spending. I get it. And let's also keep in mind doing those on the right, a lot of what they are concerned about is the southern border, and we need to get that southern border as part of this. This is our leverage to get real reforms done at the southern border.
Well, I'd like to hear from you on that a little bit more, because we've spent weeks in a couple of months here talking about a potential deal on the border that would be tied to the supplemental funding request for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. But we have been hearing from more Republican House members that they want to see border in this spending bill. And I think Chip Roy in fact, is the one who's saying either close the border or close the government.
Do you feel that.
Way, Well, you know, I'd rather see I have secured the border and shut down the border than I would see US shut down the government. Government shutdowns are just not good. I've been through a number of them, and and you just made the comment of a minute ago that it's you know, how do you get into one? Well, it's not so much how you get into one, is how you get out of one. It's difficult to get
out of a shutdown, inexpensive. But at the same time, a government shutdown is not the worst thing that could happen. The worst thing that could happen would be for us not to get anything out of that southern border, not to get any kind of policy reforms, any kind of in making sure we're enforcing the laws that are on the books right now. That's one of the things that needs to be done. That's why Mayor Orcus needs to go. He needs to be impeached and because he's not enforcing
the laws that are on the book right now. But we need that. We need that at the southern border. We also need to stop this outrage is spending.
A lot of folks have suggested that the timing of a Mijorca impeachment could needcap this whole idea of crafting a deal on the border. It's a sentiment that even Senator Jim Langfort has expressed the Chief Republican at the table, you're on the border on the Budget committee, Rather, Congressman, how much time do you actually need if these top line spending levels are in place, can you get it done in the next two three weeks?
We could, I'm very optimistic. And again a lot of that depends on the Senate. The rules in the Senate are different and it takes some time to get things like this done. So but on the House side, we could get it done rather quickly. Yes, But then again keep in mind it's got to go through the Senate. Not only that, but these are this is a lot of work for staff to do. Staff's going to need a couple of three days to get all these numbers put together. So it's not like, oh, it passed the Senate,
it passed the House, then it goes to the President's desk. Well, there's going to be a little interlude there as well.
Spending time with Congressman Buddy Carter, the Republican from Georgia, not only on the Budget Committee, but a member of the House that is in some cases outraged by President Biden deciding to approve of air strikes, authorize air strikes that were conducted last night against Houthi rebels in Yemen. Congressman, We've heard from a couple of different quarters of the House. It's not every day Rocanna and Mike Lee are agreeing on things. Mike Lee says, the Constitution matters regardless of
party affiliation. Primila Jayapaul, who runs the Progressive Caucus in the House, calling him out for a quote unacceptable violation of the Constitution.
What's your thought on that decision by the Commander in chief? Was it the right thing to do?
I think it was the right thing to do, yes, and I think it's about time he did it. I mean, let's face it, the hoodies had been using our troops, our navy is target practice, and we can't allow that to happen. We've got to be strong. We've got to fight back and have backbone. There's no question about that
in my mind. Far as the constitutionality of it, you know, I'll leave that for others to decide, but you know, for us, just to let our troops sit out there, let our navy sit out there and be the target practice for these terrorists is unacceptable. We've got to fight back.
I appreciate your time today, Congressman. Thanks for joining us from what looks like a warmer place than Iowa right now. The gentleman from Georgia, we thank you, Republican Buddy.
Carter on Bloomberg.
As we assembled our panel, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano have been listening along here and want their take on this. I guess we can call it news. The fact that the Speaker is not backing out of a top line spending deal.
Maybe we won't shut down.
Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors. What do you think here, Rick, it's on again, off again with this speaker, and he's got a right flank that's apparently pretty angry with him. Does he have enough, buddy Carter's to get something done here?
Yeah?
Look, I mean, I think he's not going to get a majority of the Republican vote because it only takes a couple of guys in the Freedom Caucus to hold things up if it were just a Republican vote. But the reality is this is going to be voted on by the entire House of Representatives, and there are plenty of Democratic votes to try and not close down government.
So he's got the win it his back. When it comes to actually taking a vote, he's going to obviously have to violate the one rule that McCarthy tried to stick to and ultimately paid the price of his speakership by violating it, which is, you know, having more than just Republican votes to pass something. And kudos to him for agreeing to something that frankly has already been agreed to,
you know, for the last three months. So you know, let's get on with the passage of these appropriations bills and let government function in a proper fashion.
So how you feel? And then, Genie, is it less likely that we shut down? It's so difficult to pick through the minutia every day and have a sense of direction or momentum on these talks. We're celebrating the fact that the Speaker is not bailing on a deal that's already been made twice.
Does that keep the government open?
You know?
I think it is in everybody's interest, obviously to keep the government open. I agree with Rick, there's probably enough Democratic votes, certainly enough Democratic votes to keep it open. But I think we should take a step back and acknowledge this is by no means the way our government should be working. This is not regular order. I mean, what we're looking at here to your question to the representative is either another short term in a long line
of crs or a longer term. We've had very little information from the Speaker, the absence of leadership, the confusing messaging is all over the place. So yes, we all hope. I hope that he's able to stick with the deal he made with Chuck Schumer keep this thing open for a little while longer. But at what point are we going to have a government that functions in the way
it should out of Congress. The reality is there is no way that we should be living off of short term CR and I'm not sure how long the news speaker can keep this up. You know, I again hope it stays open and we get this CR. But this is not regular order, this is not good process, and it is shameful to watch the messaging that's gone on.
Well, I can't imagine that this is real, Rick Davis. But apparently the speaker did float the idea, at least behind closed doors, of a year long CR, something I mentioned to Congressman Buddy Carter.
There.
Republicans on the Armed Services Committee freaked out when they heard about this because that would amount to a defense spending cut. There's no real world where that happens.
Is there.
Now?
Look, I mean, this is a rookie speaker, right, and you know, I don't know if he actually understands all the ramifications of the things that he kicks out every day. People on the Armed Services Committee, a both the House and the Senate, the hask and the task would flip out if they thought that Republicans were going to be party to a significant in defense spending in the middle of the crisises that we have going on all around
the world. I think that's a complete non starter. But we can't anticipate with someone with no experience like Speaker Johnson has. We can't anticipate what kind of ideas he's going to float that ultimately will get shot down.
Chair Mike Rogers the Armed Services Committee, Genie says, not a viable option, no path forward, don't try it.
Is that how this ends?
I think so, And you know, if we can just look at some of the cuts that Representative Carter was talking to you about the ten billion in IRS. He's right, we're spending more than the speed of light per minute. But how on God's green Earth is cutting the IRS going to help. We are hurting ourselves. That's how we get money is by holding people to account, to pay the IRS to cut that ten billion. This is the folly that we're dealing with. On the Republican side, they're
talking about these cuts. If they're real, we will all lose money as a result. So you know, to your question, I hope it ends there, but you know, at this point we have a speaker who seems to be all over the map on messaging he's gonna have.
To get I can imagine the conversation that we're going to be having one week from today, Rick and Jeanie will be with us.
This is Bloomberg.
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We're learning more by the hour here on what happened last night the air strike staged by the US and the UK against Houthi.
Rebels in Yemen. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington.
We thank you for joining us on the Friday edition of Sound on these headlines. Broke late, yes, and we're just getting real details now on what happened with dozens of strikes here. And of course we turned to our friend Tony Capastio reporting from the Pentagon here at Bloomberg, and he's with us in studio now to set things up and we'll have some analysis on all of this from our panel. Knowing there are real political ramifications here.
We just talked to Congress from Buddy Carter. He actually supports as a Republican what the President did last night. Progressives on the left do not, and some are even calling it, in the case of Rocanna, a violation of Article one, which is something that we'll get to. But Tony, it's great to see you.
Thank you for being here, and thank you for invit this.
The extent of these strikes apparently larger than we might have even thought at first.
How would you kind of put this in context? Yeah, this eaked out last night.
The US Central Command and the Pentagon really wouldn't talk about the extent of the strikes, but it was a US Air Force's Central Command that put out a release late last night.
They put this in context.
They said there were over sixty targets at sixteen locations and over one one hundred precision munitions. That's a lot against Syria, against Libya. In twenty eleven, the US launched like one hundred and twelve Tomahawks.
Well, I just found out.
A little while ago that of the over one hundred, about eighty more than eighty were US Navy Tomahawk missiles. They were fired from the US's Philippines, a cruiser, the Gravelly and the Mason, two destroyers, plus the USS Florida, a submarine that carries tomahawks. So this is a largely navy action and I think they're Choffman out the bit to talk a little bit more about their contribution about but it was as large operation.
It sounds like it, and the extent that it was not just the US. This was in fact an international operation here the UK did most of the heavy lifting beyond the US from what we understand.
Right, the armaments part of it.
Yeah, yeah, So what does that tell you in terms of the decisions that they made on the types of weapons that were used.
Stay as far away as.
Possible, not only stay as far as the way as possible, but the tomahawks that were used, if I if it's the model, I think it is the most recent model. These things can loiter around and retarget. They just don't go they just go fly and go pop. They can fly around and retarget. So they hit storage and launch facilities for missiles, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. That tells me that the targets they wanted to be double cheer.
There were no civilians around, and be very precise that their maps were going in matched what they were seeing on the ground. But it's an interesting million dollar missile that the US used last.
Night, and we fired eighty of them, over eighty.
Of the one hundred, which was a surprise to me.
So we dropped over eighty million dollars just on cruise missiles.
Always a bloomber you think of the money.
Well, I mean, that's that's quite a price tag, and at some point we need new ones, which is a whole other story. I realized this was orchestrated by a Secretary of Defense in.
A hospital, bit I think it was approved by Okay, this was an interesting chronology I'm starting to pick up on. So this massive Russian like hooty attack was on Tuesday the ninth, Yes, well, I think that's what precipitated the strikes. But the next day the Pentagon put out a statement saying that among the activities of the Secretary, he was briefed by the Joint chiefs of Staff, Chairman Brown, General Brown,
and then General Carilla, the Sentcom commander. So looking back, it took me off at Sentcom was tasked really quick to put up coming up with a plan and then brief it to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and then brief it to Austin and from there it goes to the National Security Council.
Fascinating.
We don't have any update on his condition or any sense of what he's getting out doing.
We don't have any sense of that, but apparently he's comfortable and thankfully recovering.
Huthi has promised before we struck a big response.
We don't know anything about that.
I presume did we render their military if we can even call it that, or are they useless now after these strikes.
I don't think useless, because they may have underground facilities that the US wasn't able to strike. But I guarantee you right now that the sky's over Yemen or looking into Yemen now on P eight maritime surveillance and drones. They're looking there to see if there's any movement in those target areas and if there's any strikes from the hoodies. I'm pretty sure, like I'm pretty sure the Ravens will be in the super Bowl, that there will be strikes, restrikes by the US.
So we're not quite done.
We're not quite done. I think, but their eyes in the sky are monitoring what's going on Yemen radio that area. Yes, it's pretty easy to see if you've got our sensors.
We love it when you cross the river from the Pentagon to come see us on Bloomberg sound On.
Thank you, Tony Capastio. Great work, great reporting.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one eastern.
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They say the momentum is behind Nicky Haley in New Hampshire.
How about Iowa? The latest poll here.
From Suffolk University draws the headlin on the Washington Post that she's been waiting for. Haley tops Ron de Santis for the first time in Iowa poll. This is the same group, by the way, that had her about twenty points behind Donald Trump in New Hampshire earlier this week, topping Rond de Santis.
Here.
Let's look at the numbers, and to be clear, Donald Trump is still far out in front as you might expect fifty four percent. These are likely caucus goers, not a huge pool, but an important one. Five hundred likely caucus goers give fifty four percent to Trump as their first choice, Haley second choice at twenty percent, Ron De Santis at thirteen. No point in mentioning the vacant single digits. Just last month, Rond de Santis was leading Nicky Haley
in the state. An important move here, it's not just New Hampshire, as it turns out, leading Nikki Haley to ask the question openly today, Who's your daddy?
Ron?
A new ad up this morning in Iowa. Got this in my hands from Rick Davis, as a matter of fact, interspersing the crowd chant with bits of an old ad.
This is years old, twenty eighteen.
Ronda Santis talking to his baby about how great Donald Trump is.
The title, Yes, who's your dad? Make America great Again? Build the Wall?
Super pac ad one point six million dollar ad buy so, I suspect we'll see it when we get there, Rick Davis and Genie Shanze, No, Rick, is this good politics?
Yeah, well, it's certainly entertaining politics for the rest of us. But look, I mean a lot of these caucus events have been canceled for the weekend because of the really extreme weather in Iowa. And what better way to try and keep campaigning by having really entertaining ads like Who's your Baby? You know, for caucus goers to talk to each other over all weekend long. So I think the timing was great and it's about time we had a little levity in this campaign.
At the end of the spot, a message says America needs strength Genie, not a suck up.
Is that the closing argument from Nicki Haley?
Yeah, I think it's a big one for her. I think it's also an argument about electability against Joe Biden is a big one she's been making. But you know, listen, her numbers have been moving in the right direction all this time. That's why she got the AFP on her side. They are well entrenched in Iowa. We're seeing the big ad money come out there. But again, you know, I hate to go back to Chris Christy, but when he said she might get smoked, you look at these polls
and yes, she's moving in the right direction. But real clear politics in Iowa still has Trump up by an enormous amount, So she's got a lot of ground to go, but at least a strong second could move her into New Hampshire to make a go of this.
What's your take on the pole here from Suffolk?
Rick, By the way, we're going to talk to David Pellio logos coming up in about fifteen minutes from Suffolk. Who ran this pole? Do the numbers ring true as Ron De Santis coming in third here?
Yeah?
I think the directional signals of these numbers ring true. I mean, it's so hard to gauge how many caucus goers are going to go out and what the actual number is going to be. I'd say two things are really important. One is Haley comes in ahead of Ron De Santis, and this pole indicates that that is the direction it's headed in. And two that Donald Trump, to make this a campaign, gets below fifty percent. Now that's
probably more a factor of turnout. If he has a smaller turnout than expected, that could depress his vote a little bit. But look, let's face it, he was gonna win Iowa beginning, middle and end. He's never been threatened in Iowa by any of these candidates. But Haley's campaign is all about New Hampshire. She needs an extra spurt of momentum to come into New Hampshire next week and a second place finish in Iowa will give her.
That, all right, So maybe I should have asked that slightly differently, Genie. If Ron de Santis does come in third, is he done?
I don't see where he goes from Iowa. Quite frankly, Joe, even if he won, it would be hard for him to go to New Hampshire and move to South Carolina. But if he's in third, I think the writing is clearly on the wall. He has spent millions of dollars and been going down in the polls. I think his campaign realizes that they've been saying that quietly, So you know, I think this is the end for Ron DeSantis, even
in the best case scenario. I think for Nikki Haley, we got to look at those five counties that Rubio won in twenty sixteen. She's got to have his showing there because at this point Trump is threatening to win all ninety nine, and I think the one I watch is Sue see how he does there. But you know, if he was to get to Rick's point over fifty percent, if he was to win all ninety nine, I mean, this is a historic victory if it pans out that way.
If he doesn't, by the way, gosh, it's hard to listen to these polls because they can be wrong a few percentage points, but wrong twenty or thirty points, and that's a problem for the industry.
Well, you know who's in New Hampshire today, No one we've mentioned yet this hour Joe Mansion holding a series of public events in some of Rick Davis's favorite towns like Derry and of course Manchester, hosted by a group called Americans Together. This is a nonprofit founded by Joe Manchin's daughter seeking to raise one hundred million dollars to promote centrist candidates. He's pushing for open primaries, Rick and ranked choice voting. What else is he really up to here?
Is he pushing for a third party run?
Yeah?
Look, maybe he's auditioning for this no labels thing, you know, trying to keep relevant in the national eyes. I mean, obviously he's not been in the news as much as when he was, you know, holding up big pieces of legislation in the Senate. But yeah, I mean, I think you got to go where the eyeballs are, and right now that's Iowa New Hampshire. And you know, there's nothing for him to do in Iowa. But New Hampshire certainly ground zero for a group like No Labels, So we'll see.
I mean, maybe he's threatened by the fact that Chris Christie seems to be the darling of New Labels today. And you know so, I mean, who knows what the politics of that group are. You got to get the third Way guys in here and have them talk about that.
You know, we're going to do that because I suspect heads are exploding on the democratic side of the aisle every time Joe Manchin walks into a police like New Hampshire.
God knows, we've seen that movie already.
Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano stay with us for some final thoughts on the weather. Here the DeSantis camp is praying for snow. Would it actually help the governor of Florida. We'll talk about it ahead, and as I mentioned, David Paleologos will join us alongside Kaylee Lions. Coming up at the top of the hour with more on the research from the ground in Iowa.
I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
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Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound.
On the Friday edition, we meet you at the threshold of the weekend, alongside Hayley Lines with new numbers to talk about here.
It's not just New Hampshire.
We're looking at momentum behind Nicki Haley in Iowa. Look no further than Suffolk University with the pole fifty four four percent, Donald Trump and Kaylee.
It's important.
This is a I guess, a relatively small sample, but it's a really important one because we're talking likely caucus goers, not just registered voters or adults or whatever. Trump fifty four, Hayley twenty, DeSantis thirteen. Do I mention Veavek at this point? Do we still do this?
Well, he's still a lot of time there.
And he's deeply invested in Iowa. He has six percent, which is not great for him here.
And Chris Christy still was in this race at this point, but we know he's gone. I'm not sure he makes much of a difference in Iowa though.
No, that's a fair point. I'm just wondering where David Paleologo has found Asa Hutchinson. What's going on here. I don't even see him on the shar He's the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. I'm sorry to be a wise guy, David. It's great to see you, and welcome back to Bloomberg. It's been too long. Look, I associate you probably because of geography and our time spent in Boston with New Hampshire politics this time of
the cycle. But you're looking at Iowa with a very compelling story for Nicki Haley.
What did you find?
Yeah, and you know, the polling is a little bit different than others who have done the same polling.
Most of the other posters.
Have either DeSantis in second place or an even We found that Nikki Haley was at twenty percent, clearly above but within the margin of ra actually of DeSantis at thirteen percent.
And when you remove.
Christy from the because we did ask second choice votes, when you remove Christie, it's fifty to twenty two.
She bumps up a.
Couple points, but it's still a thirty plus point win. I mean, one thing we know is that Donald Trump is far far outside on the bell curve of the margin of era. He will win Iowa. The question is second place. We believe it's Haley's right now. Others say it might be tied, or DeSantis may prevail.
Well, David, as Joe said, those individuals you were talking to surveying here are likely caucus goers. And I wonder which groups of caucus goers may become less likely to actually attend a caucus giving given the weather. Is it Trump supporters who based on polling, may assume he has this in the bag that might not actually turn out on Monday.
Yeah, it's a great point. There are two schools of thought on that. One is the pole margin is so high that why bother in forty below weather, why bother going to the Caucaus Trump's going to win.
It's a foregone conclusion.
The pollsters probably are in the general ballpark of what the margin is. The other school of thought is the history of the Iowa caucuses. It's never been more than a twelve point margin for anyone in the Iowa caucuses. So what we're talking about is a historic win in Iowa, far far beyond what any Iowa caucus results does look like, and that these are people who have strong intensity for Trump and if it was one hundred degrees below, they would be out there for Trump. So we'll see what happens.
There's no way that we can measure that. We do know from other polling that Trump voters have a higher intensity to vote and they have the less probability of changing their mind.
That might work in.
His favor or they people may assume he's going to win and it may work against them.
With the polling you pulled in New Hampshire just last week, Trump forty six, Hailey twenty six, that twenty point spread got a lot of attention, David, and I wonder how what happens in Iowa will inform what takes place in New Hampshire.
Yeah, it's a good point. You know.
A lot of people who were DeSantis supporters were yelling at me on social media for having a bird and I felt like saying, but I didn't want to engage them. You should be happy that I have Hailey second and him third, because if he exceeds that, you're going to look like a hero. If he's tied with her, or if he beats her. So because it's always about the perception, not the reality. It doesn't matter that someone's going to lose to Donald Trump by thirty points. What matters is
what the expectation level is in it. I think the Suffold Pole was beginning because I got so much attention, was beginning to shape people's opinions that Haley would be finishing second instead of DeSantis. And that sets up for a good opportunity for DeSantis to dispel that, you know, even at our expense, to dispel that that narrative.
Well, and that's why so many people are asking if DeSantis, having invested so much in Iowa, if he's not able to pull out number two, if he ultimately leaves the race after Iowa doesn't even make it to you Newham, sure, I know when you released the New Hampshire polling, you pointed out specifically in the release the boost that Chris Christy exiting the race would provide to Nikki Haley. What would happen if DeSantis left the race in the days between Iowa and that first in the Nation primary.
So at DeSantis defection would slightly, slightly help Trump, but not by much. It's close to a fifty to fifty split in New Hampshire among second choice votes, so he really wouldn't fare into it. Trump might actually get a small bump if DeSantis were to get out. But Christy, on the other hand, forty nine percent of people who are Christie voters said that they would vote for Haley and only seven percent I believe it was like a
seven to one margin, would vote for Trump. Now, some people wouldn't vote at all, some people would be undecided and so on, But that potentially takes a fifteen to twenty point race, which is what it is is right now, going into the race with Christy inn and changing that dynamic so that it's potentially, I don't know, a nine to eight to nine point lead for Trump in New Hampshire if you sort of interpolate the difference between the Christie votes rolling and rotating to Haley.
We just saw Donald Trump announce a rally for next Saturday night in Manchester and this has been his mo. I think it's happened the last to New Hampshire primaries, typically on the eve at the Big Arena across the street on Elm Street, from where all the media will be located. It turns into a big sort of carnival atmosphere. And David, considering that so many voters in New Hampshire like to make up their mind at the last minute, I wonder what kind of impact that event will have this time.
I would say it's going to have a marginal impact. It may be reported differently, but the undecided is really low. Ninety two percent of Trump voters say they're not going to change their mind. Overall, eighty percent of all voters say they're not going to change their mind. The undecided there's only four in New Hampshire. When you have high end decide, it's like twenty percent, fifteen to twenty percent.
That's when you see major fluctuations and major shifts using momentum as an impetus to help one candidate or another candidate. I mean the question to me is, let's say assume that Christie's vote, many of Christie's votes rotate to Haley. That puts this at an eight nine percent margin. Ramaswami now becomes a key figure because if Ramaswami get out, that would pretty much seal it for Trump. Because Ramaswami, I don't think we had one voter who said that they were Ramaswami.
Voters who would vote for Haley. It was it was mostly Trump.
So if he were to get out before in New Hampshire, that would seal it for for Trump.
I don't think he will.
I think he's going to stay in it for a while, but he would you know, you know, the person that we were going to talk about in Iowa, he might be more of a player in New Hampshire than we think.
Fascinating.
That actually is really interesting, Joe, as we've been gaming out who who is actually going to be left in the field by the time we get to these.
And whether if a fake might be looking to help Donald Trump.
Well, we know that he has probably been the most vocal advocates as the greatest president of his life competing against He said he'd leave the ballot in Colorado if Donald Trump wasn't allowed to be on the ballot.
Ultimately, we're still waiting for the Supreme Court to decide that. David.
On that note, have you talked to have done any polling on the suggestion what if Trump is convicted of a felony? What how that would change votes? Because I feel like that is a dialogue we are starting to hear more about that. Some voters do change their minds depending on the outcome of criminal proceedings, even if those proceedings don't necessarily wrap up in time for these early races.
Yeah, not on the national polling as of yet, because there are so many it's like convicted of what he's been charged with, so many different things. You know, you're you're you have to insert what specifically he would be convicted of. Some people may look more seriously at January sixth versus you know, a civil settlement based on financial documents, that kind of thing. I think that you know, one thing we do know is that when you know, every time he's been in court, he's used it as a
fundraising opportunity. Uh, and he does mobilize supporters and get more donations the more legal MoES that he has. Ironically, so I think that's that's in play as well. I mean in New Hampshire, what we're looking at from a polling standpoint is how big.
Will the democracy issue be?
And I think that's where your question is is is coming from democracy is a winning issue for Nikki Haley between her voters and the Christie voters.
Two thirds said.
Among the people say democracy is the most important issue worked with number three in the state in the primary, Haley would have a huge lead over Trump on that issue, But on the top two issues immigration economy, donald Trump is in landslide material. I mean, he's winning three and a half to one among Ob Haley among immigration the
immigration issue. I think that's why you're seeing so much centered around immigration in a state like New Hampshire, which is nowhere near a southern border, but that's the issue that people are talking about.
It's been interesting to see social security and retirement age pop up as an issue, not only because our interview with Nikki Haley is being featured now on a Trump ad that's playing across the Boston and New Hampshire TV markets here, but it came up twice the other night by Donald Trump and by Ron DeSantis or voters talking about it.
So we know demographically that New Hampshire is one of the older states in the country and disproportionately older voters tend to be more Republican voters and younger voters tend
to be more Democratic voters. So I think this was a play to the demographics, not only not only the current polling, but also just the demographics that if older voters come out strong, that's a big issue for just that sliver of the population age wise where they feel like if they don't feel secure on such security and Haley is being attacked for that, that might be the thing that pushes them off Nikki Haley and potentially to Donald Trump.
All Right, in our final moment here with you, David, as we look ahead to Monday, specifically, what will constitute a surprise for you? Knowing everyone's expecting Trump will win, where could the surprise be?
So the surprise would be Trump doesn't win. I mean that will make.
Us along well, that would be the ultimate surprise, surely.
But short of that, I'm pretty confident he's he's going to prevail. The only question in my mind is does he break the record for the Iowa Caucases for the biggest landslide win in the Iowa caucauses with twelve points. That may happen. I mean, our polling says it will happen, but it may not too. It may you know, people, as you know the weather, there are so many conditions. But aside from breaking records and a landslide win for Trump, I think Ron DeSantis in a decisive win for second place.
Over Nicky Paley. It would be the would be the next the next biggest surprise if they're tied owing it right, we believe that it's the second if the Santas won comfortably over Hailing, and that would be really bad.
David Paleologos, come meet us in New Hampshire. This is Bloomberg.
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We've talked a lot about one important vote happening in the coming days.
We all know it. The Iowa caucuses are on.
Monday, But Joe, there is another really important vote that is happening this weekend.
It's in Taiwan.
That's right far from Iowa and arguably, well, I don't know, the next most important election around the world. Yes, in this cycle that's going to see them happening in a lot.
Of places, mostly because it could be crucial in determining not just the future trajectory of Taiwan's relationship with China, but also the US's relationship with China by extension, knowing how sensitive the Taiwan issue is at this moment when we're seeing such tense relations between the world's two largest economies.
Yes, we thought we would this down a little bit before it happened.
It's not on everyone's radar because we've been spending so much time talking about Iowa and New Hampshire debate season and all the rest of it, and we we thought we would reach to a real expert who has helped us out with the story in the past.
Yeah, that expert being Craig Singleton. He's from the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. So Craig, it's a three way race essentially, we're talking about here, walk us through what's at stake depending on who ultimately comes out on top.
Absolutely right, Everyone here in the Beltway is focused on Iowa. But tomorrow more than nineteen million Taiwanese voters are going to head to the polls to pick their next president and their next parliament. And it goes out without saying I think as you sort of teed up there that
this election carries some pretty serious significance. While domestic issues like inflation and you know, sort of cost of living are going to be critical in this year's election, far and away the paramount concern revolves around Taiwan's really ship with mainland China, and all told, you know, the election is really going to serve as a litmus test for the Chinese Communist Party's political warfare strategy, namely weather Beijing
can achieve its you know, stated reunification goals through non kinetic means alone, and so the stakes really could not be higher.
So we're basically talking about a menu of three candidates here in sort of three degrees of separation from China, which is close list a lot more closely aligned, I should say, with US policy right.
Now, you know, I would say there's probably two outcomes to this election, neither of which suggests to me that US China relations are really going to improve meaningfully in twenty twenty four. The ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party, if they emerge victorious, and that is after China has portrayed, you know, this election as a vote between peace and war, it's hard to see Shojinping, the leader of China, accepting
defeat gracefully. And we have to remember sensitivities are running prety high in Beijing right now as China confronts a host of domestic and international crises, and so she has made very clear recently that you know, he has a lot of urgency about reunification with Taiwan, perhaps sooner than later. And so I think what that suggests to me is that we could see a pretty serious Chinese overreaction if the ruling party does succeed, which a lot of polls
tend to show, although polls can be wrong. You know, if the current ruling party is voted out of power, I think China will meet that reaction sort of with a little bit of a sigh of relief, but it could it's hardly clear that either of those opposition parties is going to do Beijing's bidding, and that could really
lead I think China to become frustrated over time. I think what's more frightening about that scenario for the United States at least, though, is that, you know, China could sort of believe in the event that they can sort of get rid of the ruling party in Taiwan that they've hit upon this winning political warfare formula, one that expertly blends provocative military action and sort of disinformation and
information warfare. And in that case, they would be pretty emboldened to begin deploying that same strategy in other places, including here in the United States, where they are really seeking to sort of meddle already in the upcoming twenty twenty four election in the United States.
Well, that is, you know, a frightening proposition, I think to many as we talk about our own elections, but on the Taiwan election for just a moment longer, how much is there for Taiwanese voters a real consideration of independence from China? Is that something that they actually want?
Are they likely to seek out the candidate who would most be supportive of that idea, or is that just you know, the worst case scenario for China that isn't necessarily something that they would like to see realized.
I think long term voting trends suggest that most Taiwanese voters would prefer the status quo. They're not seeking to poke China and the eye, but they're also increasingly not interested in reunification and certainly not reunification on China's terms.
Those long term trends are going to be just incredibly frustrating for China, and so this election is particularly important because it could signal whether we see this turn back towards perhaps more a slightly more conciliatory approach towards the mainland, or whether the ruling party in power, which has stood up for Taiwanese sovereignty, not independence, but sovereignty, has garnered
to stay in power. And I do think that we're going to get a good sense about the average voter sentiment in Taiwan, but I do think that a lot of the talk about independence is largely sort of melodramatic. We haven't seen an indication that Taiwanese voters are pursuing independence, but what they do want is to have a sense of self determination, and they do want to be able to maintain their democratic system in democratic governance.
We're spending time with Craig Singleton from the Founder for the Defense of Democracy's China program. Should the DPP then remain in power, Craig, what kind of a flex might we see from Beijing? Another blockade around the island, send a couple of missiles over What would it look like.
Yeah, Like I said, it's hard to imagine chi Jinping accepting defeat gracefully. Here. I think an immediate sort of military reaction, probably through increased military exercises and provocative exercises, that that is a strong possibility. We have to remember that the Chinese leadership has made clear how important and
monumental this election is. They have thrown the kitchen sink at Taiwan in the last few months in terms of disinformation, military coercion, economic coercion with new trade subsidies and trade restrictions on Taiwanese companies that are reliant on the mainland. And if all of that effort fall short of achieving their political objectives, I would imagine that there's going to
be quite a bit of frustration. Whether that veers towards overreaction or miscalculation remains to be seen, but it's certainly a possibility.
Well, especially keeping in mind that we learned just recently back in November, at that summit in San Francisco between Shijinping and President Biden, she essentially told him, to paraphrase, that they have every intention of Taiwan being reunified with China that they would prefer it didn't happen with force. How realistic do you think that is something that's going to happen in the near to medium term, say the next five years.
You know, it's really difficult to assess. I think ultimately I believe she wants to reunify through all means short of war, but there are a lot of circumstances and conditions in which he might consider using kinetic force. I think at the end of the day, we're spending so much time trying to think through different countermoves of how that Chinese could react without actually just thinking and looking a little bit about what they're saying.
Time.
You brought up a great point. Chi Jinping has made clear. Reunification is inevitable, whether the Taiwanese people want it or not.
There are real steps here that we can take in Washington to provide the Taiwanese with the defensive military equipment that they need to defend themselves, while also making clear to the China that they should probably accept the results of this outcome, and we should vocally be repeating I think these conversations are happening privately but not publicly that the United States doesn't support any unilateral attempts, whether they're from Taiwan or from China, to change the status quo.
I think we should be beating that drum publicly as well as privately, not just to reassure the Chinese, but to make clear to the incoming Taiwanese administration that we're watching and I think that we're eager to help them with their defense, but we're also going to make sure that we stick through our long term commits in the region.
Just got a minute left here, Craig.
What does Beijing think of our elections that are about to begin here, the primary cycle and whether or not Donald Trump becomes the nominee.
You know, last month, the intelligence community here released the classified assessment that showed that China meddled extensively and pervasively in our midterms in twenty twenty two, even getting involved in picking candidates for Congress and undermining those that were perceived as being anti China. I think what they're going to do in this coming term is more of the same.
There's no indication that the Biden administration has called out Chinese election medlaying or threatened them with any sort of consequence if they were repeat that again. But I do think we're going to be very keen to show us democracy is dysfunctional, chaotic, and unreliable. Those are key themes and messages the Chinese are propagating around the world, and I think we can expect that sort of same information of warfare theme to be persistent throughout twenty twenty four.
Greg, it's great to see you.
Thanks for setting us up for this important election in Taiwan. We'd love to hear your thoughts once we get through it. He's seen your fellow at the Foundation for the Defensive Democracy's China program, and that's of course why we call on him, Kayley. He sure knows what he's talking about, and I'll be deeply curious to hear how this goes. The ramifications run a lot deeper than a lot of people might realize.
Here you're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern.
On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
The forecast for Caucus Day.
It's snowing right now in Des Moines caucus day a high of four below zero. We've been obsessing over this because it really could change the ground game and even the results of this.
Iowa caucus with record cold temps.
Bloomberg News reporting today Kaylee that the DeSantis camp thinks it can out perform in bad weather because it's got the ground game.
That's what they say.
That they've spent so much time invested in the state of Iowa, visiting all ninety nine counties, signing up all.
Their people that staying one hundred captains.
Good to go.
That's right, And of course DeSantis also is touting in Iowa the endorsement of the state's governor.
His best friend, Kim Renold.
That's correct, and that's actually someone that Bloomberg's very own Sealia Mosen spoke with on Bloomberg's Big Take DC podcast. Slea is actually already in Iowa where she's braving the elements. Before Joe and.
I we have moved. We don't know if we can get there.
Joe and I are gonna have to do the same soon.
Seleia, tell us more about your conversation with the governor and maybe also how cold is it actually?
I am stuck in Atlanta right now, I can tell you you're.
Making our point.
Yeah, people aren't getting there.
I don't know who's going to vote.
Let's see what happens and if Iowans can stomach it. But I'm telling you. I spoke to Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds.
It was her first interview for the year, just a couple of days before Iowan's kick off the election year for the country.
She spoke to Big Take DC, and she.
Had something really interesting to say about what would happen if Trump is the Republican nominee.
Great, let's listen.
I'm a Republican. Any one of the candidates that we have running will do a better job than the absentee president that we have serving. At this point, it is unbelievable what we see happening under this administration, and so, without hesitation.
It's fascinating when you consider Seliah the Suffolk poll that we just talked to David Paleologos about showing Nikki Haley moving past Ron DeSantis in Iowa. It's not looking great for his momentum there, now, is it.
It's not looking great for his momentum.
The interesting thing that Reynolds did say to me during our interview. You have to download and listen, but the interview was interesting. She talked about how if Donald Trump gets less than fifty percent of Iowan's support, then it is game on for a number two candidate to work through the primaries New Hampshire, Carolina, South Carolina and then onto Super Tuesday and maybe break Trump fever.
Wo.
She think that Rondasantis was going to be that candidate no matter what, even if he didn't come in number two. To seas your destiny that DeSantis has taken.
This all the way, she suggested. She was direct.
She said DeSantis is going to win it. DeSantis can win it. He is right for the country, he's right for islands. She is full steam ahead, Uh, supporting Ronda Santis right now.
Seleah, We've been taking this time each day recently to update the forecast. We go to Des Moines and listen. You know, it's like the local TV stations there. This is the top story KCCI channel eight. You're in Atlanta right now, just listen.
I know we're just off two thirty five and this is a very Midwest thing to say that it's not that cold unless the wind is blowing well, the wind is blowing and it's pegging up that snow. It's making it cold. It's making it cold, and it's blowing that snow everywhere. It's causing drifts off the side, off the sides of buildings.
Oh my god, this poor lady's on the side of the high It's drifting up the sides of buildings.
Seleia, what's that going to mean for turn out?
I mean they had expected.
Iowan State Party local officials had talked about.
Two hundred thousand Iowans.
Participating in the caucuses, casting ballots, persuading each other, getting persuaded.
It is really unclear who is going to make it out.
Events are getting canceled left and right in Iowa right now, and flights clearly, Yeah, exactly.
The weekend is here. Yeah, you can't be with any voters and there's no media there to cover it.
I love it.
We'll cover the Georgia primary at some point. Just stay where you are, Soleya, Hey, we'll meet you there. We're trying to get there tomorrow. Maybe we can actually pull this thing off. We'll meet Seleya in Des Moines and check out the Big Take DC podcast. Subscribe after you do the Sound on Podcast. Thank you, Sileia.
Yeah, well, if you're a political junkie, you need them both.
Yeah.
Thanks for listening to the Sound on Podcast.
Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern
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