Welcome back to special coverage show of the New Hampshire Republican primary on Bloomberg TV and Radio. The race has been called Donald Trump as one.
And just moments ago we heard from the runner up, Nikki Haley, conceding here in the Granite State.
I want to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory tonight.
He earned it and I want to acknowledge that.
And back with this now, our political panel, Rick Davis, partner at Stone Court Capital, is here alongside Genie Shanzano, political science professor at Iona University. Rick, what are we looking at the rest of the night here, because we do still have some questions to answer, as we said earlier, particularly when it comes to margin. We're just past what a third of the way here, Kaylee. As we look at the numbers of precincts reporting, there's a lot of votes still to come in.
Yeah, I mean every indication is it may actually exceed the Secretary of Stage prediction of three hundred and twenty two thousand and voters. So healthy and robust day at the polls for New Hampshire voters.
Well done.
This is what we come to New Hampshire to do is see a real democracy in action, and I think that you're going to see more and more votes coming from the rural areas. Right now, it's inside a ten point range between Donald Trump and Nicky Haley, and I think all you're going to do is see more and more margin coming in from for Donald Trump voters. You know,
these are his strongholds, rural voters. And one of the things we're seeing, which is a very stark contrast, which we've seen in Iowa, we've seen in the polling nationally, is Donald Trump is doing exceptionally well with voters who don't have a college education. But Nicky Haley has really racked up margins with voters who do have a college education. Dartmouth, that area around Hanover, she was leading Donald Trump eighty percent in a college down like that where it's very
high education levels. That being said, there are more voters who don't have college education New Hampshire then otherwise.
So on margins right now, thirty two percent of the vote count and according to the Associated Press, Trump fifty three point nine, Hailey forty five point one. So we're just under a nine point spread at this point. I feel like we should remind Genie our global audience that's watching that this is the second in a row that Trump has won. There's only been two contests he has won, both in Iowa. Though historically the person who wins does
not end up the nominee. It's been that way in the last several competitive contests Ted Cruz, for example, one at in twenty sixteen, when Trump was the eventual nominee. That's not necessarily the case with New Hampshire. But is this going to be the year that Iowa and New Hampshire both picked the presidents? It wasn't just Iowa picking corn this time?
Yeah, I mean that could be. It seems like that's what we are looking at. And you know, this is once again I have to say Donald Trump breaking these established molds. I think he has changed this Republican Party. And let's you know, not forget he has changed the primary process as well. Here, if we sit in New Hampshire, you and Nikky Haley crossing this state end to end, back and forth campaign events and rallies and all these
kinds of things. He was dropping in for one event a day in between court cases for his ninety one felony indictments. And yet he has led this thing and so I think it's incumbent on all of us to try to understand what it is that voters on the Republican side are seeing in Donald Trump that they find attractive. And I have to say give him credit. He ran
a really smart campaign here. The two issues he focused on immigration security broadly, but immigration social security medicare, which we keep saying Joe Matthew was in his commercial on that and those two things he tried to move voters, and it seems like they were effective. And it's something to keep in mind. We talk a lot about Donald Trump saying things out of turn, talking about people calling them names. He was issue focused, at least on the air.
Here for a TV audience, we're seeing a live view of votes being counted right now in New Hampshire, with quite a few to go here. Rick the psychology behind Nikki Haley's decision here. Knowing that she is trailing Donald Trump badly in her home state as she moves closer to South Carolina, could she be more likely to drop out to avoid embarrassment there or is she committed to that contest?
You know, look, this is a gut check, right.
She's been under attack by Donald Trump pretty significantly since the Iowa Caucus. She's withstood that pretty well. She did fall into a bit of a routine here of responding to all the attacks, which is exactly what you don't want to do when you're taking in that kind of assault.
And the question she's going to have the gut check is do I want to go through four weeks of just intense barrage of attacks by the MAGA machine in South Carolina, a significant force of politics that can really hurt her image long term if she's not careful.
And that's going to be really the core question.
I don't think South Carolina is going to be determined by money. She'll have plenty of money to fuel South Carolina came for campaign for four weeks. The question is is she going to want to.
Well, you talk about the attacks that she could be on the receiving end of. There also is the question of the attacks she could be dealing out. We saw in the very final days leading up to hear in New Hampshire sharpening of the knife, if you will, going after Trump for things as we heard her speaking this evening, things like senior moments when he confused her apparently with Nancy Pelosi, thinking she may have been at the Capitol on January sixth when he was speaking a few days ago,
she's called him chaotic. If she's going to do this over the course of the next four weeks, how much harder realistically should she go and will she?
I know a lot of her advisors have been wanting to ramp up the attacks, just like you were talking about, not just on metal, competency and age. You know, that's been sort of the core, and that at the end of the day, she still says, yeah, but he's fit to be president, right at some point, I think you have to draw a brighter and stronger contrast. You have to say, you know, he and the electability issue has been one that I think she's starting to play even
harder tonight. She said he can't beat Biden, and she's the only one who can. In fact, she said any other Republican could. But that means her. So I think that she's going to have to come out much more aggressively. There's no way a massive negative campaign against you is going to be successful for you unless you are able to mount a significant and very well scripted, targeted campaign against your opponent. And she didn't do it, and DeSantis
didn't do it. And the only one who really tried that was Christy, But he didn't attack Donald Trump on the issues. He attracked Donald Trump on his personality. She's got a hone an issues attack and proved to voters in South Carolina that his form of government is not conservative and not good for the country.
Well, Genie, the Biden campaign is already mobilizing here like it's over the statement from Joe Biden's campaign.
One thing is clear.
Donald Trump is headed straight into a general election matchup where he will face the only person who have ever beaten him at the ballot box, Joe Biden.
Is it right? Is this general election underway?
You know? And this is one of the things we heard Nikki Haley say tonight that Republicans should be concerned that Democrats want to run against Donald Trump. And that is something we've known because the Biden the Biden team has said that, you know, and I think we're hard pressed to imagine that anybody besides Donald Trump, barring something
we unexpected, is going to get this nomination. And you know, to put a finer point on it, let's just remember evangelicals in South Carolina, her home state, three out of four voters identify as evangelicals, only one out of four in New Hampshire. This is why this was the state for her to beat him. That said, she also tonight said I'm going to challenge him to a debate. Why is he scared to debate me? So if she stays in this thing, she's going to be taunting him about
a debate. But if you're Donald Trump, can I have what incentive do you have to debate she's and who is she to ask? She's lost two now, so it's you know, if she stays in, I expect we'll hear that. But gosh, it's hard to imagine a way forward now. She really needed all New Hampshire delegates to pull this thing through to the end successfully well.
And debates typically feature two things, one of them being attacks against the person you're debating, the other being actual in theory if it's working, substantive policy conversation. And earlier a few days ago, over the weekend, we talked to Governor Christan Nunu, of course endorsed Haley, actively campaigned for
her here in New Hampshire. Didn't result in a win for her obviously, and I asked him, is the differentiator between Haley and Trump actually policy or you're what you think is the ability to execute on that, Paul, And he's said his execution not actually policy. Is that an issue here? You just aren't convincing voters that you would actually be that much different, that you have different ideas that you're talking about.
You know, I think it's a mistake because you know, let's face it, voters look back at four years of Trump on the Republican side and they see successes there, you know, so I think it's very hard to convince them that the execution wasn't there. But there are policy differentials, and she started talking about them, and then she dropped back a bit, and I think that that has been
a problem. You know, there are many many Republicans who you look at the amount of spending under the Trump administration, who find that objectionable. But she had to hit him hard, as did Ron DeSantis. Not having done that already, I'm not convinced she can make that case now as she moves into these much more difficult states.
So how does she have to place in South Carolina as we wait to have a better understanding of this strong second or maybe not so strong.
Does she have to win her home state? Is it as simple as that.
Well, you can't win a nomination by coming in second, and that's really what it's something doing. And the political graveyards are stacked full of candidates who thought they could win by coming in second and they never did. I mean, this will be the first time that a candidate could have actually won the first three primaries and caucuses.
And then you know, we've never turned.
Back a nominee from that ever. And so as Genie likes to say, Donald Trump likes to break the mold, and she would have to really break a big mold
to be successful this way. That being said, you know a lot of people are talking about this notion of hanging around the hoop long enough, keep racking up delegates and stay in the race and keep raising money and being the flying the ointment for Donald Trump, at which point, maybe he does get convicted of one of these crimes, maybe he has enough of these mental moments to convince even his own voters that he doesn't have a path
to go forward to beat Joe Biden. And then she's there with the electability argument, and it sounds pretty good at that point, yeah, I.
Guess none of us can know for sure what's going to happen over the course of the five months between now and when the Republican Convention actually takes place in July. And of course Rick and Jennie will be here to walk us through the next several months, just like they are sticking with us for the remainder of this hour. Rick and Jennie will be back with us. But coming up, we're going to turn to foreign policy, something that Nikki Haley also has staked her candidacy on is her reputation
in that arena. Will be joined by Elena Lyon of the University of New Hampshire. Coming up next, this is special coverage of the New Hampshire primary on Bloomberg Television and Radio.
He doesn't believe in limited government.
He believes in this kind of dictatorship.
He doesn't believe in local control.
He believes in Washington.
So those are not Republican values.
But you have said because he if he were to be the Republican nominee, because you are a Republican, you would support.
That most people.
That shouldn't surprise anybody.
Even though he don't think he actually carries the values.
Of the Republican Look Joe Biden. That's how bad Joe Biden is.
That was part of our conversation with New Hampshire Governor Christian Nunu earlier this week in Manchester, as he was a surrogate for Nikki Haley, endorsed her campaigns heavily for her here in this Granite state, and yet that was not enough to actually lead to a victory for her here in New Hampshire. The race was called just over an hour ago for Donald Trump. Right now, thirty four percent of votes are counted, he has fifty three point
four percent to Nikki Haley's forty five six percent. The question is the trajectory of Haley's candidacy going forward, and also how much this will become more about the issues at play here. We want to talk about foreign policy issues in particular.
Now let's go to Ellina Lyon.
She's political science professor at the University of New Hampshire and author of US Politics and the United Nation.
She is joining us.
Here live in our Manchester studios as we simulcast to you globally on both Bloomberg Television and radio. Professor Lyon, thank you so much for joining US this evening. We were just having a conversation with our colleagues Ric and Genie about issues domestically the border, social security, and medicare.
At the retirement age.
Nikki Haley is the former ambassador of the United Nations, and at a time where you have a conflict in the Middle East, you have a conflict ongoing in Ukraine, she has really tried to flex that at least to this point. Is it resonating with voters or do these issues just come too far below some of the other domestic problems that it's not enough to propel a candidacy like hers forward.
Yeah, such a great question.
So there's actually a recent a people out looking at exactly this and asked voters what are your top five issues? And foreign policy made the top five, not the top but the top five for I think it was forty six percent of Republicans, who was actually doubled that from prior and it's a little lower, like thirty seven percent or so for Democrats. So yes, I think that foreign
policy is incredibly important. Maybe not the kitchen table issues that people tend to think of, but the news is full of a lot of instability in the Middle East, and you know, every time you open up your phone there's something about the Middle East. It whether it's it On or Israel or the Huthis or the situation in Ukraine. So I think people are paying attention and it seems so volatile, they're nervous.
We have a global audience tonight. As Kayleie mentioned, what extent is the world watching this? Primary Joe Biden always tells the story about his first G seven when he said America is back and the reply was for how long?
Yeah?
I think that's exactly right.
The rest of the world, whether or not it's v Putin or the Europeans or the Canadian Prime minister, everyone is watching, and the United States is relevant to We have boots on the ground or military presence in over one hundred and twenty five countries.
We are a leader of what we call the international order.
Right We were the architects of the United Nations, of NATO, of the IMF, of the World Bank, of the G seven. The United States has led for over seventy years and provided guidance to deal with many of these issues, and there's a lot of concern. During the Trump administration, there
was a concerted pullback right. Trump was America first, not about dealing with global stability, and so there's a lot of people looking at the volatile issues around the world saying, is there someone that's going to come help us think this through and work these problems.
Well, and you certainly got a taste of that at the World Economic Forum.
In Davos last week were world.
Leaders, specifically European ones, even a Central Bankery CB president Christine la guard were talking about how they've the risk of another Trump presidency, how Europe has has to think
about that. You say that this is an issue that is resonating with voters, that they care about foreign policy issues, and the fact of the matter remains that, at least judging by the tally right now and looking back at Iowa, more than fifty percent of Republican voters support the former president who did have an isolationist bent, who did threaten potentially to leave NATO. Does that show that actually it's not just about him, but the American electorate is becoming more isolationist.
Yeah, you know, and it's funny.
Isolationism is a term that academics actually fight over. Are we isolationists? Do we really want to? And I think that many aren't quite sure one what isolation is and means, and whether or not it's even possible. Right, when we think about isolationism, we think about the early nineteen hundreds, right when you could actually close borders and you didn't have planes coming in. I mean, the our economy, the United States economy relies on our interactions with the world.
Our health, as we learn from COVID, relies on our interactions with the world, world, our climate health, if you will, you know, if we're talking about climate change, United States.
Can't do it alone. There's absolutely no so there.
I think that the notion of isolationism is a really old old one, and I think that there's a lot of fear in the electorate, like we don't know what's going on out there, and the instinct is kind of retract right, and especially you know, there's war fatigue. The fatigue of Afghanistan and Iraq was real. Electorate really felt that we wrote a lot of checks and didn't get a lot back. But in terms of being isolationists, I don't even know if it's possible.
It's great rhetoric.
We're showing live pictures to our TV audience of an empty podium waiting for Donald Trump, and we'll have remarks from him when he does emerge here. Having had this race called very early on for Donald Trump here, the Associated Press waited one minute until after the polls closed to get this done. We had news today, Cayley, of an eighth strike and Athos strike against toothy rebels in Yemen. You mentioned this steady drip of frankly skill headlines that
people are hearing and reading about in the news. To what extent will Joe Biden be judged as having a steady hand on the tailer versus what some people see as international chaos.
Yeah, no, I think that's exactly right.
I think that you know, we're in the middle of a storm, a squall if you were using New Hampshire terms here at the global level, particularly in the release. There are seven to eight particular conflicts going on within the release. I mean, I'm trying to count them and map them out and explain them to my students.
It is.
It is very complicated, and you know they've got these
little fires. It is a tinder box. If you have volatility in Washington, d C. A tweet or something to that particular effect could be you know, I had former students who worked at the State Department, and they said, you know, they'd wake up in the morning, they would have their marching orders, they would be preparing to do this, to work with this particular country and buship forward, and then all of a sudden, the tweet would change everything.
And so that level of volatility is very concerning.
Yea, And we certainly have seen the former president, though he's no longer on Twitter, posting on x this evening after his victory here in New Hampshire saying Nikki Haley is delusional that she gotten third in Iowa. As she was at her victory party talking about how she did concede this race but was going to move forward to her home state of South Carolina. She said New Hampshire was the first in the nation, it is not the last in the nation. She's going to carry this forward.
And we are seeing pictures now for our TV audience of Donald Trump his party this evening as well. We expect Joe that we'll hear from him very shortly.
Yeah, he's got the whole family with him, or at least a number of family on the stage with a long bank of American flags and the typical Trump set up a lot of phones in the air here, Kayley, as we wait to hear remarks from the former president, I'm curious which Trump we get. If it's retribution Trump or if it's come together unity Trump.
We've seen both in the last week.
Yes, we absolutely have after Iowa, very congratulatory tone, even for Ronda Santas Nicki Haley for the campaigns they were running their much more disciplined message. We'll wait to see how what kind of tone he strikes this evening, Professor Lyon, just one more question quickly, and I apologize that we'll have to interrupt you when the former president starts to speak. You were talking about your students and also explaining to
them the issues of the Middle East. And we have seen that students, the younger population here in the United States has at least a group of them very particular feeling about what's happening right now in Gaza, the conflict between Israel and Hamas. How much is that dragging on the incumbent President Joe Biden his handling of that issue in particular, as we have seen tens of thousands of civilians killed.
Yeah, I think it's going to be a significant issue for whoever becomes president, and it's definitely something that Biden's had to tread very carefully.
One, we have been unconditional.
Allies of Israel for years and years, and how unconditional is that? But also being mindful of the fact that there are twenty two Arab states, and there is thee On and there is Turkey, and we are close to those countries as well.
Joining us now Bloomberg's Peggy Collins and Mario Parker with us at the table now that we have a better sense of where we're going here. Mario, you covered Donald Trump in the White House and as a candidate, how difficult, how bruising is this going to be for the next four weeks if she decides to stay in this race.
Well, Joe and Kayley, you all set it up perfectly. I mean, what you saw in that speech that he just gave was he was signaling it it's gonna be rough. Now he's about to probably start throwing some really really tough haymakers, especially as he goes towards South Carolina. Look, the former president is under legal troubles. He wants to make this a coronation more than a nomination. He needs these victories. He needed this New Hampshire victory. He needed Iowa.
He's gonna need South Carolina. She's signaling that she's gonna stay in the race until South Carolina at least, so you're gonna see things get pretty ugly.
Well in South Carolina is still four weeks away. That primary Peggy is on on February twenty fourth. We have a global audience joining us here on TV and radio tonight. Would anyone listening to us right now have any real reason to believe that Trump wasn't ultimately going to be the nominee, regardless of whether or not Nikki Hailey decides
to continue competing in these contests or not. Right now, looking at the data, he pulled more than fifty percent of the vote here as he did in Iowa last week.
Well, I think the momentum is clearly going his way. That's undeniable. But I think what people have said it round the Klee campaign, even in the days leading up to this, is that they wanted to show that they are doing better with each race. So they did do that tonight. They had a better showing than in Iowa. So the question is going to be in her home state. Can she perform even better than she did here in Iowa.
So now we're getting into, as Mario said, kind of the zone of the fifty percent and whether or not she can show that she's going to be able to compete with Donald Trump before he gets that coronation and nomination slam dunk.
In some ways, The question worth asking again, though, Mario, is how she can do it there if not here in New Hampshire, knowing it's going to be a lot closer to Iowa politics in terms of demographics and values in South Carolina. I believe Genie mentioned one in four Republicans or evangelicals.
That's Trump country again, is it not.
That's a great point, Joe. I mean, you saw Nikki Haley's campaign. Also, you saw Americans for Prosperity other groups really go all in. In New Hampshire. This was her best shot right now, just given the composition of the electorate, highly educated, white collar suburbans, moderate voters as well undecided voters. And then you go to South Carolina, it looks a
lot like Iowa. She's hoping that she has a little bit of home court advantage there, but again, this is a deeply red state in South Carolina, it is they.
Also got a history of some pretty dirty.
Tricks, that is true, absolutely, and then you've got Donald Trump down now he's had this infrastructure again. I think one of the things that we forget about in this election is the fact that Donald Trump is running for a third time. The muscle memory that you get the infrastructure, infrastructure that you have over that course as well able to kind of sow the ground in some of these key states.
Well.
And that's what we've been hearing about his campaign this third time around, that it is much more organized, that they are much more disciplined, and perhaps we are seeing the reaped reward of that in New Hampshire this evening, we're talking about South Carolina in terms of the Republican primary, Peggy, but there will also be a Democratic Party in South Carolina officially, if we're talking about what counts in terms of delegates, it will be the first for the Democratic Party.
Joe Biden was not on the ballot here in the Granite State this evening, there was a write in campaign. It appears he won that by a pretty sizable margin. Dean Phillips, though a congressman from Minnesota, a Democrat got twenty percent of the vote.
How should we be thinking about.
What New Hampshire tells us about the incumbent president as he is the presumptive Democratic nominee at this point.
I certainly think we saw in talking to voters and then tonight in some of the results, that there are a lot of people who are saying they're not seeing what they want to see coming out of the Biden administration and their campaign. We saw time and time again that people were telling us immigration and border security have become almost as big as, if not a bigger issue than how much people are seeing their pocketbooks get hurt
by inflation, which was the big issue last year. So I certainly think that people are looking to the president and not only asking questions about age, but asking questions about policy, and so the Biden campaign is really going to have to answer those questions to voters heading into South Carolina.
As you said, Haley.
As you said, Cally, I'm sorry in terms of how they are going to solve some of these problems that Americans are saying, Hey, we see this as a problem, we want a solution for it.
Yeah, Mario, you got a fascinating interview that you brought us at Bloomberg with Larry Hogan when he was still a national coach here of No Labels. These since left that group which got everyone thinking he might launch a run for the presidency. They have said, if it's Trump Biden by Super Tuesday, we're running a candidate, whether it's Larry Hogan or someone else, Will that happen.
It looks like it, right, because that's what's happening. At least we're at least as of today, it looks like we're going forth towards this rematch of Biden and Trump, something that voters are polling shows that voters have no appetite for. So it does look like the No Label's movement will be moving forward, at least if they're going to keep their word in that regard.
All right, Bloomberg's Mario Parker, who leads our White House and National politics covered here at Bloomberg, as well as Peggy Collins, are Washington Bureau chief. Thank you both so much for joining us this evening, not from Washington, but from Manchester, New Hampshire, where Trump has been declared the victor of the first in the nation primary.