You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
They've got a deal on hostages. Welcome to the fastest show in politics. As the Biden administration helps to broker in agreement to secure the release of fifty hostages held by Hamas, including Americans, in exchange for one hundred and
fifty Palestinians held by Israel. We will talk about details of the plan, walk through what we know, and discuss what it might lead to with Congressman Ami Bera, the Democrat from California, serves on the House Foreign Affairs and Intelligence committees and is with us at the table this day before Thanksgiving, Republicans win a special House election in Utah, and Andrew Cuomo reportedly thinking about a run for mayor
of New York City. We'll have analysis and all these stories from our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanie Shansey or with us for the hour. So thanks for joining on the radio, on the satellite, and on YouTube. Search Bloomberg Global News. The cameras are lit as we welcome the congressman to the table, Amy Bera of the sixth District of California. It's great to see you, sir, and welcome back to Bloomberg Jo.
Thanks for having me on.
You're like the only lawmaker left in Washington today, so cheers to you, and thanks for being with us for an important conversation. I know that this is an important matter to you, based on your perch on the Foreign Affairs and Intelligence Committees, and based on your role as a doctor. I don't know if you prefer to be called doctor or congressman. You can tell me that later.
You have a unique view as to what's coming here because it reminds us that not only do we have a breakthrough, but there are also two hundred hostages still in Gaza.
No absolutely, and being on the Intelligence Committee, we've been getting briefed on a pretty daily basis about the situation October seventh, but post October seventh and then the negotiations with the hostages. Yeah, President Biden, his now security team, his ogn policy.
Team have been very much involved in this.
And you heard Prime Minister and yeah who talk about calling the president to help get a better deal, and the focus really has been on the safe return of the hostages. So I think this was a breakthrough yesterday.
And what do you make of this three to one?
You know, I think we always anticipate it would be something like that. You know, it sounds like it's Palestinian women and teenagers in exchange for the first tranch of hostages being a lot of children and women. There's that possibility of you know, continuing the hostage exchange, and you know, I think, yeah, this is a good first step.
Well, the hostage exchange comes with the pause, as we're calling it, not a ceasefire, and I know that's deliberate language that we're using. It also allows for three hundred AID trucks a day to be coming in from Egypt. That might be equally as important a component here when you consider the plight right now Ballastinian.
Civilians incredibly important, you know, and I do see this as a doctor. You know, you've watched you know, the healthcare professionals, the doctors in Gaza talking about having to operate without anesthesia, hospitals running out of fuel, folks running out of medicine, and just the massive innocent civilian loss. So you know, that's not helping the cause of trying to find peace. It's also in my mind, not making as real more secure. So, you know, can we take
advantage of this pause. Can we get needed humanitarian aid, food, water, medicines, fuel into Gaza to the civilians, not to Hamas, And then can we take this temporary pause and maybe make it a little bit more permanent.
The message from Benjamin et Yahoo was very clear yesterday not to cease fire. In fact, when this pause is over, we will resume fighting in Gaza to root out Hamas. With that said, there's the potential for a second phase here that could lead to a more lasting cease fire, maybe something we would actually refer to there. Are you concerned about benjaminettya who's posture at a time that could lead to a breakthrough.
Yeah, I think they're going to continue to degrade Hamas. They're going to continue to do what they have to do in order to secure the Israeli people. But is there a different way to prosecute this work? Can you do something a little more surgical, more tactical, minimize the massive innocent civilian lives lost, The destruction. I mean, at the end of the day, the Palestinian people have to live somewhere, and you know, I don't think it's a great idea for Israel to try to occupy Gaza.
I'm not sure what that looks like.
So can we take this pause, Can we think about what might a two state solution look like?
You know, and start that conversation.
A two state solution, boy, And it feels far away at the moment. The administration has received a lot of cre from many progressive Democrats about the way that this war is being comported, even though that it is not the US conducting this battle but full throated and support for Israel while thousands of Palestinian civilians die. You can look at this one way or the other. It's very easy to blame Hamas in this case. The Biden administration would tell you that's what we should do, but it
creates a political problem for him on the left. What do you hear from your colleagues in the House.
Yeah, Hamas clearly instigated this war, so that yeah, there's no debate about who started this war, and Israel clearly has the responsibility to protect its civilians and make sure something like October seventh, doesn't happen again. That said, you know, you do see the massive humanitarian crisis taking place, the loss of life. You know, it's heart wrenching to see young children being pulled out of rubble and so forth.
So, you know, I think President Biden's.
Been very clear in the US focus. Obviously, we will continue to help Israel secure its security. Moving the aircraft carriers into the region, we were making sure this doesn't extend or expand into another front, so that is also clear at our mission. And then you know, the attacks on our troops and others in the region, we have to respond to that as well.
Well.
What are you hearing on your committees? And I suspect it's both of them at this point, But I imagine that the Intelligence Committee has been quite a wealth of information, most of which you probably cannot share with me right now. But do you think that the presence of these two carrier groups helped to avoid a second front? Would Iran have been involved in this now? If the US hadn't acted the way.
To you know, I think moving the assets very quickly has really you know, there's an initial concern about has Well perhaps getting involved here.
Yeah, yeah, we haven't really seen that. You know, you've seen missile launches and so forth, but not a full scale involvement.
And then you have Iranian proxy groups in Syria, in Iraq, the Huti rebels in Yemen. Again, I think we, along with others, have been doing what we have to do to make sure this doesn't spread, many.
Have suggested, and it's not just now, it's part of being the president of the United States. There are things the president knows that we will never imagine. And people question the president's demeanor when he walks into a room. Why does he look tired today? Why does he seem angry with reporters? What kind of information is he hearing when he's briefed in the morning or when he interacts with intelligence officials?
Right now, you know, being president of the United States probably is the hardest job in the world.
And think about it.
There's two real hot conflicts going on in this world. You've got the illegal invasion by Russia of Ukraine. And you know, I met with some Ukrainian civilians and healthcare professionals earlier this week, and you know, they just talk about the atrocities that they're coming across and what's happening,
and you know they're about to enter another winner. So that's got a way on the president now, crisis in the Middle East and trying to get the hostages back to diplomacy, all at the same time where last week he was meeting with Shijiping trying to find a path forward to avoid conflict in Asia, so incredibly challenging job. I think the president's been doing a great job.
This here why they see. It's not for the faint of heart or not necessarily for an old man. Do you worry about his ability to do that for another four years?
You know?
I think he's been a great president, and you don't hear people criticizing the job. I equate age with experience, and he's the most experienced president that we've had, and I think the voters should look at his record of achievement. And if you look at that record of achievement, we've
got the strongest economy in the world. Unemployment is way down, wages are rising, and then with these conflicts around the world, and as someone on intelligence and foreign policy, I think he's doing a great job keeping a world together.
Right now, we're.
Spending time with Congressman I'mibera of California. The attention is going to shift from that end of Pennsylvania Avenue back to Congress when you return next week or when your colleagues do you, for the record, are still here at it. You can start negotiating a budget right now. But with that said, it may not come easily. The conversation around
Israeli funding. Your new speaker decided to strip that away from Ukraine, Taiwan and the border to bring that to a vote with I realize what you saw as a poison pill with defunding the irs to a point here, it's going to have to take some shape though, and I wonder if you have that vision in your head.
I mean, I think we would like to do both Ukraine and Israel supplement altogether. I think you know, you're starting to hear some of my Republican colleagues say, Hey, what you're asking for with regards to Taiwan or the end of Pacific's not enough. My friend Mike Gallagher certainly is asking for more, so.
That could be part of this.
And then I do think you know it's fair for us to do something on the southern border.
I mean, we've got a real challenge there.
I do think Republicans may want something different than what we're looking at. But you know, let's negotiate around how we secure our southern border and perhaps put all that together in a security supplemental.
Based on what you've seen by this Republican majority, is it possible to get that done at the same time as figure out how to avoid a government shutdown in January?
I mean, as we've seen time and time again, the only way to do that is through a bipartisan deal. They need you, well, they need me and folks like me ye are willing to negotiate, compromise and find a middle ground. And you know that's not going to be the extremes on the far right or the extremes on the far left. It'll be a center right, center left coalition.
Or do you optimistic that that exists based on what you've seen? The Speaker was at mar A Lago last week, and I understand, yeah, but he doesn't want to be working with you.
You know, Speaker Johnson did the right thing by you know, doing a relatively clean cr You know that he got a victory in this two step process again, and I think we were satisfied with it, so you know, at the end of the day, it is going to take by partisanship. And I think he realizes that. I think former Speaker Kevin McCarthy realized that. And you know, it always came down to Democrats and Republicans working together.
You talk to Kevin McCarthy, he's your colleague from the California delegation. You see him in the cafeteria line. Now, I mean, what's his life like as a former speaker?
Yeah, I don't want to speculate on what Kevin McCarthy's thinking. Hopefully there's no elbow checks in the back or anything like that.
Sounds like you haven't gone out for drinks lately. People should know that you were instrumental and I know this is very important to you in helping to settle Afghan refugees. We have a situation now where Israel's neighbors are not opening their doors to Palestinians that have been urged to evacuate for instance. What's the answer to this.
You know, I think we're going to continue to put pressure on Egypt. Obviously they've got a shared border with Gaza and the Rafa crossing. You know, I think we will continue to talk to the other Arab nations, and now there's they have to be part of the solution. And again, if you can get a prolonged, positive and potentially a cease fire, any two state solution, any security guarantees are going to involve the other countries in the region.
Yeah, well you start wondering as well, with the US play a role in housing refugees or is that just too far away to be practical now.
I think we've always taken refugees in Sacramento County, which is my home district, has always been a place where, you know, going back to the Vietnam War, you know a lot of Southeast Asian refugees in the Sacramento region, you know, to what we went through a couple of years ago with the Afghan refugees. We've got one of the largest populations and I would say that the refugees really add to.
The diversity and what makes Sacramento great.
And again, we're a country where we should take our fair share, but obviously work with everyone else.
To sit down at the Thanksgiving table tomorrow, and we know that politics will probably be talked about in a few households. There was a poll that I've referred to repeatedly from Quinnipiac this week, six out of ten voters are hoping that politics will not be in the conversation at the dinner table. But it's hard to avoid when issues like inflation are driving politics. The things that we deal with every day, the prices that we pay, and I suspect that's going to be part of what comes
up tomorrow. What do you want people to know that they might not be aware of when they say, hey, this costs a lot more than it did in twenty nineteen, or hey, this president's too old to get out of bed in the morning. What would Ami Behra tell them if you was at the other side of the table, I'd.
Say, when we give our blessings before we carve into that turkey, let's look at the complexity of world. Let's hope for a better, kinder country and world. And you know, there's much more that binds us together than separates us and the other divisions that sometimes you see in Congress, or divisions you see across the dinner table. If we could actually find some civility, find the ability to look at the world from someone else's eyes, and that's what
I'm trying to do. You know, again, when I think about the tragedy in Gaza, I can see it. You know, when I talk to my Palestinian American constituents, the pain and anguish and their voices, it's the same thing when I was talking to families of hostage victims that are praying for their relatives safe return from when they were taken by Amas.
They have that same pain and anguish.
So if we could learn to see the world from someone else's eyes, you know, we might find a path forward.
That's a wonderful answer. And I appreciate your coming to see us today. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family, even if you have to spend it here in the nation's capital.
Happy Thanksgiving. At least I got to deal with my family.
Indeed, thank you, Congressman. That's really all we can ask for, isn't it. Our best to your family and cheers. Thank you for joining us. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. This is Bloomberg Sound On as we assemble our panel for a quick swing at some of the issues we were talking about with the Congressman. We'll have a lot more time as well with Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano here they are primed for Turkey and some pretty good news today, Jeanie.
In a hostage agreement that we talked about yesterday, it seems to have largely taken the form of what we expected. Is this a win for Joe Biden?
You know, I do think it is. We even heard from Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday who said he was given the deal that cutter in the United States had broken, and he didn't like parts of it. He went to Biden, they were able to rectify it, and he personally thanked Joe Biden. So I do think it is. But I think very very smartly, the administration cannot and should not take a victory lap on anything here. These are fifty
of more than two hundred hostages. There is so much more work to be done, and I think Jake Sullivan on the Morning Show is said the same. So I think tone is absolutely appropriate, and they do deserve kudos for this work they've done in a really, really awful situation.
Well, this is a good point, Genie, and you're not the first to suggest that this isn't time to be taken victory laps or celebrating here, Rick, Obviously, this is very good news for fifty families, some of them American, but the Genie's point, there are two hundred others. Does this actually help to potentially unlock another deal?
Sure? I think that the Katari foreign minister said just that that you know, this isn't you know the game done? This is the game begins, and that game is if you can entice these terrorists into releasing hostages for you know, certain kinds of terms like ceasefires, then maybe you just keep tacking on and you know, the terms of this are you get another day of a ceasefire if you
give us ten more hostages. The hope would be that you could get all these hostages released by year end, and there's some indications from Palestinian officials that that could be the potential outcome. So crush fingers, keep your you know, keep your hold your breath. But it does theme that we're headed in the right direction when it comes to a flow of hostages coming out of Gaza.
Yeah, Rick makes a great point. Israel says it will extend the pause for every additional ten hostages. So this could take on a lot of different forms here in the coming days, that we're going to have a deeper dive with Rick and Jeanie on this important development here on the day before Thanksgiving. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. I'm glad you joined us on sound on This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Israel is calling it a pause, Hamas calls it a truce. Whatever you want to call it. The White House wants you to know that President Biden was deeply involved. Jake Sullivan speaking about the hostage deal the hostage released deal announced today, speaking on ABC's Good Morning America about the role that the President of the United States played in achieving their freedom.
The key honestly was bearing down on both sides, working the United States closely with Cutter and with the government of Egypt to get both sides to essentially get specific and the big move happened late last week when President Biden spoke first with Prime Minister net Yahoo and then with the amiror Cutter to say how many hostages for how many days in return for how many Palestinian prisoners.
And it was really the work to refine those details that finally produce the breakthrough that we now see resulting in the announcement of appause in hostilities and the first return to prisoners of hostages.
Rick Davis and Genie Shanzeno are signature panel back together for their thoughts on this deal now that it has emerged. We should note, by the way, the President is not in town. He is on Nanta bucket celebrating Thanksgiving with the family. And this deal came together late yesterday. We were waiting for it. I'm sure he thought it might emerge before he left the city. But no big announcement here, no Rose Garden announcement coming from the White House, despite
the fact that the administration was clearly deeply involved in this. Genie, you made the point before, it's not time to be celebrating or taking victory laps with two hundred more hostages in Gaza. But this administration clearly wants people to know that Joe Biden was on the phone helping him make this happen.
Yeah, they do, and with good reason. I think it's another case of Joe Biden, you know, being very good and delivering. Again. We have to be cautious here because they haven't been delivered yet, but delivering on a promise to try to strike a deal. But it's not something that's visible to most Americans. And so you know, to hear Jake Sullivan today out in the morning shows you just played Netflick, he's absolutely right to make the case.
You know, this is I think the scope and the scale of what if this comes through, they have achieved, if they get these fifty children and women out, is quite remarkable. We've never seen anything like it. And you know, it's just chilling when you think about the specifics here. Israel has released some information that are being given to Israeli soldiers who are going to be potentially greeting the children when they come out, sort of a script of
what to do and what not to do. It is utterly, utterly frightening to read and to think about what these people have gone through and the fact that we may see three Americans come out, and we don't know yet, but that then there are about two hundred remaining. The scope and the scale is astonishing, and you know, President of Biden deserves kudos if this work. But again there's
a lot more work to be done. And watch for a divide between the US and Israel continuing to get to be exacerbated because all three of the statements we saw from the White House ended focusing on the release of hostages versus Israel and net and Yahoo. They are going back to their primary goal of destroying Hamas. Many people feel those two goals are in conflict and the resolution to those is really difficult to parse your way out of.
Yeah, well that's one way of looking at it, Rick, Some folks think that they're not in conflict and in fact are reliant upon each other. How do you look at it?
Yeah, Look, I mean presidencies for as long back as we can remember have suffered under expectations and disappointments in the Middle East. You know, whether it's all at war like what we have now, or failed peace initiatives. You know, it's actually part of the methodology you see the Biden
White House using. Try to take some credit, but don't expect to get out too far because your heart's going to get broken at some point along the way here, and you know, you just got to protect the presidency from looking like it's taking credit from something that actually turns into another bad thing. So there's so much that can go wrong, not just with this initial release of hostages, but with ultimately the war that is going on now and how long it'll lasts and what it'll looked like
five years from now. And and so the good news for the Biden White House is that it's not likely to be a major issue in the general election. I mean, they'd like to get out from underneath some of the negatives that have happened some of the protest movements in
the United States. And so you see, you know, very careful orchestrations, which is why, by the way, you wouldn't see a rose garden or a presidential speech, because the last thing that they want to do is putting too far out in front of something that could wind up being a disaster. So the foreign policy, you know, brief and national politics though, is pretty minimal. He doesn't have to prove to anybody that he can be commander in chief.
He's been at and so really I think the White House is probably sit around, you know, by the time the first hostages here released tomorrow, starting to think about how they can start talking about the economy again.
Hmm.
Interesting. I thought maybe we'd see a statement or something from Joe Biden on Nantucket, Genie. You know, you pull out the pipe and drape they can always go live from there. Maybe a message to Americans on Thanksgiving Eve that they're making progress in the Middle East. Does that not happen?
You know, I think we may. I think they are very worried and rightly so about getting ahead of their skis, So I think they may wait until we see an actual release, which which would make sense. But you know, on the point that you were and Grick were just talking about other things to watch for. You know, we are hearing about a real connection continuing between Iran and Russia.
Russia potentially giving hes Blood air defense missiles, Iran giving Russia some type of munitions, some type of missiles to use over Ukraine. Those are the kinds of things that can really blow up, to use a horrible expression in the administration's face as we face a real, real challenge containing this in the Middle East, and so it's really important to watch out for that. We even heard Jijin
Ping talking about this at Bricks yesterday. So, you know, in their virtual meeting and calling for a two state solution and putin responding, so so much international pressure and so much international foreign policy issues riding on this. It can really blow up in a number of different ways that the administration can't foreseek. So they got to be very careful about what they say publicly.
Yeah, for sure. I asked Congressman Barah about the funding for Israel not to mention Ukraine and the others that are in the supplemental budget request from the White House. Rick, And it does look like Republicans have at least let a little bit more asurety in their majority. Celeste molloy won this special election in Utah to fill the seat
of former Congressman Chris Stewart, so it stays Republican. And knowing that George Santos may be losing his seat imminently, does this help Speaker Johnson plan around the looming budget debate or is it just a wash the way you look at it?
No, I think it's I mean, obviously every little bit is important here in a very closely divided Congress, and he's been without one extra vote, so you know, the margins have been super slim. You know, just three people would make a difference in getting something past or having it fail. So one vote matters, and you can't guarantee that Santos will be expelled. I mean, it really sounds like there's an attitude right now that they really don't
care anymore to lose that vote. And he's he's been such an egregious abuser of the law that he needs to go. But I'm not going to hold my breath on that. I mean, Congress has has has has not really distinguished itself this year as being, you know, uh, a object of profile and courage. So yeah, I mean, look, it's it's pretty clear though. I mean, let's just be clear.
Nothing's going to pass this Congress without a bipartisan Democrat and Republican coalition to push legislation through, just like they just did on the cr and they did before on the debt limit.
Uh.
Conservative Mavericks, Freedom Caucus, the MAGA extremists, whatever you want to call him, They're going to hold this place up. They don't care if Washington burns, they don't care if people miss their paychecks. They are trying to create you know, all kinds of disruption within the federal government. Uh, they just assume not fund the Justice Department, the military, the the the FBI. So you know, you're you're in a
You're in a cycle. And hopeful Speaker Johnson recognizes it that without bipartisan cooperation, people like the congressman you just interviewed, who are prepared to go to work and get things done with Republicans and Democrats alike. You know, unless you have that, you're not going to get anything done.
There you have it from Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzana, our signature panel, and I hope you know how thankful I am and we are for you your insights, your friendship and companionship here on sound On. Cheers to you both, and have a great holiday. Kayley's on the way in next. Hour. Two of sound On starts right now.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where there is another Kaylee Lines is here as well. Nice to see you. Actually, I shouldn't say that. Congressman Ambi Berra was with us in studio last hour. I think he is actually the only lawmaker maybe in Washington today. The President is gone. He's on Nantucket. By the way. I don't know if we need to have a little instructional thing about that. I keep reading that he's in Nantucket. You can't be in an island, right.
That's how when we're in New England, we say you're on Nantucket, you're on.
The Vineyard, but you're not on Manhattan.
No, And that's New York's own problem. I feel like, you're not in Survivor Island. You're on Survivor Island. Interesting, And we actually do that for things up there other than islands. You see, you're on the Cape, You're not in Cape Cod, you're on Cape cut Interesting. It's just been bothering me. It clearly is. I'm sure it's grammatically incorrect, but I'm sticking with it. The President on Nantucket. He
does this every year. It's a Nantucket thing. And I'm not sure if that has anything to do with just getting away from it all. But I'll tell you what. There's nothing happening on Nantucket right now.
Yeah, well, there's not much happening here in DC either. I think pretty much every lawmaker is soaking up all of the family holiday time that they're getting, soaking up their thankfulness because they're probably just filled with dread at the prospect of returning to DC and dealing with all of the business they have to deal.
With's on the other side of the stay lines. So some would not blame them for that. I guess. Yeah, they're going to hear from constituents. They're going to second guess this whole speaker thing. God knows what else will come out of the wash by the time they're back. We're going to talk about that and the latest on the campaign trail coming up with our friend Terry Haynes from Pangaea Policy. We're totally pulling him off of his time off as well. I think we're very kind to
joy it to bring us direction. And we've got an eye on what's happening on Niagara Falls. This popped up last hour, Kayley, and it looks like we have a new headline from Fox. This appears to have been a fatal event at the bridge, the Rainbow Bridge that connects Canada and the US.
Yeah, just about a mile from Niagara Falls. Of course, we already had understood that there was a vehicle explosion that the FBI was invest gating, and now according to Fox, that explosion was an attempted terrorist attack. There are two dead wow, in that car explosion. Again, this is according to Fox. Our is a lot we still don't know here, and we know that New York Governor Kathy Hochel is
en route in this direction right now. As you're seeing the border crossings all throughout this area, a number of them closed at the moment.
This is incredible stuff and it's developing very quickly here before our eyes. Governor Kathy Hochel on her way to the border, apparently to Niagara Falls, will of course bring you comments from her if we get them. But this literally just happened less than an hour ago, So this is going to take some time here. But to see that headline from Fox an attempted terror attack, I'd like
to see the attribution and know more about it. We're obviously letting you know what we know as we learn it, and you're seeing these headlines cross the Terminal and Bloomberg dot Com all the while. We should bring Terry in. Terry Haines, of course, the founder of Pangaea Policy and a regular voice here at Bloomberg Us now on sound On. It's great to see it, Terry. Thank you for giving us a little bit of time. I had a lot of questions for you about what's happening in Iowa here
and on the campaign trail. But I'll tell you what, it's hard to ignore this story at Niagara Falls. When you see a headline like that, it does seem to bring credibility to what Christopher Ray, the head of the FBI, has been telling lawmakers that domestic terror threats are near an all time high right now.
Well, absolutely, and thank you for having me. You know, one way I think about this is I wrote a note for clients almost exactly ten years ago laying out where the parties were on immigration, on border security, and what was likely or more likely or what was likely not to happen. Really, I could exhume that note and the parties would pretty much be in exactly the same place.
But the ice is finally starting to crack in Washington a little bit on this, and it'd be too soon to say, you know, to expect action, but this is the kind of event that will spur people into action. What you've heard in the last couple of weeks in Washington, I think has been fascinating if you're interested in border of security. Not only is border security funding policy changes part of the part of the discussion around an integral part of the discussion around Ukraine AID and Israel AID.
But you've got people across the political spectrum that are saying that things that actually have to change. Peter Welch of Vermont, I mean, somebody I've known for a very very long time, very good guy. You know, Peter put the P and progressive pretty much. And Peter's been saying publicly over the past couple of weeks that something needs to change. We actually need to do something here substantively.
And if you've got thoughtful people like Peter Welch saying that, you know, and you have an event like this that's just happened, you know, the stars are starting to align for some sort of action here.
I think, Well, change is one thing to hope for, and it's easy to talk about, but as we often learn and have seen born out time and again, change is much harder to actually implement terry. Even if something like this happening at the northern border, when a lot of attention has been paid to the southern border, does provide a bit more impetus, it still becomes a matter of trying to get everyone aligned and how long realistically
that takes. You mentioned how the border security issue is becoming very tied to the issue of providing funding for other country securities Ukraine and Israel funding especially. Do you think realistically this is something that can be achieved in twenty twenty three or is this a new year issue.
I've got it as seventy five percent that something happens on this the something being Ukraine aid, Israel AID border security by the end of twenty twenty three. That's you know, that's a little more than a twenty twenty five percent. There is a little more than a trailing risk that something doesn't happen. But the way that this has been set up, and I know it was set up first by the President and Republicans in Congress have really taken
it by the horns. You know, something on border security substantively as well as unfunding, has to happen otherwise you're not going to get Israeli or Ukraine ate. So now we've got a real forcing event here. So once everybody comes back next week, I would look for the next four weeks to be chok full of that debate with an eye towards getting something meaningful done.
I don't know what your thought is on this, but it's clearly going to bring up a conversation about border security to the north and the south. Terry Vivek Ramaswami is in fact calling for the US to build a US Canada border wall, not unlike the Trump border wall on our southern border. Is that a serious idea or not?
That's profoundly and unserious. That is a I read that as as an attempt for mister Ramaswami to reach out to twenty sixteen and twenty twenty Trump voters and pretty much nothing else. And Ramaswami is not a dumb guy. He knows that's an infeasible idea.
That's my kind of response. Kay, imagine floating an idea and having Terry Hayes call it profoundly unserious.
You know, it reminds me of the Logan roy in Succession thing where he says he loves his children, but they are not serious people. You just kind of gave me that vibe, Terry. Just now, of course, the vag Ramaswami is still vying for the Republican nomination, as are a number of other candidates. It doesn't seem though, at least at this time, that he is one of the
one runs in running for the silver medal. This is a race for second place, as we know, with Donald Trump still out front, but Ron DeSantis, who is one of the two, the other being Nikki Haley, trying to get that second split second place spot.
We're almost there.
Uh did get a key endorsement in Iowa, and this is not the first that he's gotten. Kim Reynolds also had endorsed him previously. Now an endorsement from a highly influential evangelical. Do you think that gets him that number two spot in Iowa? Terry? How consequential is this?
Well? I think it is consequential, Kaylee. Uh, it's certainly gonna The star is certainly aligned well for mister DeSantis right now, Let's put it that way.
Uh.
You know, I have a little bit of a different take on the race. And uh, it's and let me start by saying it's awfully fluid, Uh Iowa. Iowa's caucussers are not going to focus with real intent until after the first of the year. I mean, we're talking about an event that's really going to happen almost two months from now, so not an inconsiderable period of time, and the holidays go by and all the rest.
Uh.
But I would urge people to look at it this way.
Uh.
The the Trump national numbers mean nothing. National beauty contests are never relevant in presidential elections because the president is never is never picked that way because we all know very well this has to do with electoral college and not popular vote. So there's that Trump's numbers in Iowa New Hampshire are more than ten points less than the national beauty contest numbers. We see a trend, we see true trends, one where the race is consolidating over the
past three months. And I think it's really down to the Trump alternative is really down to DeSantis or Hailey and in no particular order right now. But in Iowa, you know, DeSantis has has put his entire campaign on winning in Iowa, and now he's gotten the endorsements of Governor Reynolds and now of mister van der Platts of the Family Organization, which are sub which are serious endorsements, substantive.
They equate to boots on the ground. As vander Platz himself said, I'm paraphrasing, but said last night, I mean, you know, these are the kind of endorsements that equate to, you know, people actually working for the nomination, you know, not just not just standstill kind of endorsements. So you know,
I think DeSantis has got some momentum here. I would look for the narrative in the in the national media to start in the next month or so to start wondering whether Trump is now underperforming, because it doesn't take much to look at or see a world where in Iowa Trump comes off a mid forties and comes down into the thirties. Once folks second choices, whether that be DeSantis or Haley start kicking in, and then people are going to start to say, well, this is a horse race.
This is a two person, three person horse race. We have a month going into New Hampshire and we've got Christy's still trying to push there because he's got the
same sort of strategy as the Santas does. So, you know, I think there's actually a lot of life in this in this nomination process yet, and we should all watch for that over the next month to month and a quarter, you know, past the first of the year, when things were really going to start either shifting towards the challengers to Santas or Haley, or alternatively they run out of steam and then it really does start to look like a Trump nomination.
Vander Platts has backed the Iowa Republican winner in the last three contested Iowa caucuses. We've talked last hour about how that worked for John McCain in two thousand and eight. Rick Davis certainly remembers it. Could we be in a world terry then, in which Ron DeSantis wins Iowa and Nicky Haley wins New Hampshire.
What happens then, Well, then you're going to have a situation where you have two viable challengers, you know, no more consolidation yet, and you're going to run into the You're going to run into this kind of the Super Tuesday block of states where it's going to start to look like either Trump is going to either Trump is going to consolidate a vote or the challengers are going to start to consolidate a vote, and either way it looks like it's either done on the one hand or
on the other hand. It's a real life horse race. So and we're still, you know, two and a half months out from that, so a lot of time left in this race.
Two and a half months feels like a long time, but I think we all know that fly Yeah, and it might Terry, it might also be barely enough time to pass a budget because we're talking Iowa here, and at the same time potentially a government shutdown.
Yeah.
Well, you know, it's we're getting to the point of perfection now where there's just going to be like rolling continuing resolutions, temporary funding for all years, you know, and we're not really that far off. Yeah, we're really not
that far off from that. But what we're going to have in terms of government funding is a world where in mid January, the Republican purists in the House are going to have to have to figure out whether they're going to throw another fit or if they're of the kind that toppled Speaker McCarthy yet something of what they want or not. But either way, what listeners should understand and viewers should understand is that, you know, this is
all very demonstrative performative on both sides. You know, one side wants to talk about DRACONI and cuts, the other one the other ones wants to talk about the idea that they're starting to make them that's really one percent out of thirty percent of the overall spending of the federal government. So that will roll us back to the dark days of fiscal twenty two. So you know, in reality, we're arguing about almost nothing but yet.
Very small.
But please the whole thing down. Hey, Terry, thanks for joining. We're very thankful for your contributions and your friendship and your smart analysis. We hope you have a great holiday. Terry Haynes at Pangaea. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast.
Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in alf, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
One of the other.
Stories we're following brings us overseas and of course, to the price of oil. Here we were gearing up for big OPEC meeting this weekend. It has been scheduled.
It has been postponed to November thirtieth, and this racal lot of questions and frankly a lot of fear in the market right now. Because this is a cartel, they have to make joint decisions on what their production is going to be like that directly affects the oil price, and the delay of the meeting suggests that they're having a little bit of difficulty deciding what that production should look like and if they can't keep an agreement together. We've seen this happen in years past where it has
dramatic implications for oil markets. So we want to get a little bit more insight into this. Joining us now as ellen Wald, she is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, also the author of Saudi Inc. Ellen, thank you so much for joining us. Of course, Saudi Arabia
plays a really critical role in this. They have been shouldering a lot of the burden of production cuts to this point, and I just wonder if the signals to you that the Saudis are less willing to go it alone now that they want everybody to be moving together, and not everybody is willing exactly.
And the Saudis have definitely and at times this is not the only time that they have extended their goodwill and made extra production cuts outside of what they're technically obligated to do under the OPAQ and OPEQ plus agreements and so, but these are not indefinite. The Saudis are not going to keep a million barrels a day off of the market forever, and they're certainly not going to do it if other members aren't fulfilling or living up
to their parts of the deal. And the way that OPEK plus production agreements are structured essentially that every country has a baseline production and then whether they are decreasing or increasing production comes at a proportion of that. So every country involved is going to cut, say five percent from their baseline, or they're going to increase by three percent from their baseline, and that's how that's how they
maintain this kind of fairness. And so what we're seeing or what we think the issues are right now is that the baselines have changed. Some countries are not able to actually produce as much as they were, you know, in twenty sixteen when these baselines were created, and other countries have invested and expanded the production capacity and so they'd like higher baselines.
And back in.
June, a whole bunch of African countries were told that their baselines were going to decrease unless they could prove
that they could actually produce more by November. And now it's November, and a lot of these countries are very upset because if their baseline decreases, it means that they're going to have to cut production because they're supposed to cut a certain percentage of the baseline, and this is very distressing to them, and so I think this is one of the main reasons why the meeting is delayed.
So Ellen, could we be in a world than in which some of these disagreements lead some members to consider leaving OPEK.
That's entirely possible, and I think that that is probably preferable, at least for the kind of core membership. That's a preferable alternative to say, not having any agreement or to capitulating in some respects. And this has happened before in twenty sixteen when they reached the overall Declaration of Cooperation, where they all agreed to cut. Indonesia left the group because it said we can't afford to cut at all,
so they essentially just left the group. Since then, Cutter has left the group, so it's not unheard of.
It would be I.
Think, very difficult if a large number of African producers left because recently a lot of these members have joined. They are representing a big, an important source of production for the future, and so I think OPEC would really like to do what they can to keep these members in the group because for the future that's very important to them, and to keep these members in because the more production that happens outside of OPEC, the less control and influence OPEK can have over the market supply.
Okay, so let's talk about those prices.
Ellen.
What price is it that you think Saudi Arabia, for example, would like to see and what price range could we see if there is no agreement on production potentially and everybody decides to pump a lot, or if there is and they decide to constrain supply even more. For those in Washington very much concerned with the price at the pump, what's the risk here? How asymmetric is it?
So I don't think that.
I think there's a very low risk that prices are going to go high. We're in a period now where prices generally trends lower. We're looking at issues in terms of demand. There's some weaknesses, economic weaknesses that people see in China. So I don't think we're really at risk of, you know, suddenly having a massive production cut that's going to send prices sky high. I would say we shouldn't
really be worried about that. But what we should be worried, what we could be worried about is the group falling apart or the group becoming less in line with the market. So when you have countries that are producing and they're not producing up to their quota, or the quotas don't match, the market lacks the right information about who's pumping what oil,
and that's really important, I think. And so bringing these numbers in line with their actual capabilities provides really vital information to the people who are looking at the market and saying, hey, wait, how much actual oil is out there? And I think that provides really valuable information and helps decrease volatility. So what we're looking at now is increase volatility with the potential for things to go farther downward
if we don't get any agreement. I think it's unlikely we won't see any agreement because OPE can always try to maintain the status quo, which isn't great, but at least it's something, and it's better than, say, you know, an all out supply production contest. I think we're unlikely to see that. But there's definitely this period of tension, and the question is how far will Saudi Arabia take this to push these members to actually conform to what
they want? And that's the real question. And the Saudi Oil minister, he can be someone of a live wire.
Ellen.
We always learned something when we talked to Alan Wald. Many thanks for joining us today on sound On, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, author of Saudi Inc. Just looking at average gas prices going into the holiday here at Kaylee three dollars twenty eight cents nationally. A year ago we were at three sixty three. At least there's that, This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Sound on podcast.
Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com