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Welcome to the middle of the week. You've not quite made it as far as you want to be yet. This has been another week in politics, with each day feeling like.
Its own week.
We do have a full ticket. We're going to be talking a lot more about the new road show Harris Walls, with some interesting political minds coming up over the course of the next hour. Here's what we can tell you. They're crisscrossing in the Midwest. Harrison Walls in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, an event a couple of hours from now. They're going to be introduced by a dairy and grain farmer. As they try to keep it real, no yet if Tim Wallas is going to be wearing Camo. This evening they
go on to Detroit. There's a campaign event there seven o'clock. A first time voter will introduce them all the while jd Vance hot on their heels matching. The travel as we told you already started first in Detroit, like I said, criss crossing. He was in Shelby Township, Michigan. Then on the way to eastern Eau Claire later on, right around
the time that Harris and Walls will be there. So the dueling road shows continue here after the big moment last evening, were you with us special extended edition of Balance of Power? We thought it would never end. But of course, in a moment like this, why would we ever stop? Kamala Harris in Philadelphia, the big preamble boy was a who's who of politicians democrats from Pennsylvania. We saw Josh Shapiro bringing the crowd to its feet, Senator
Bob Casey, even John Fetterman. I wonder if he met stage at all with Josh Shapiro, and then the Vice President herself. Kamala Harris walks out with Tim Walls, who had his big moment in a crowd that was lapping it up. Here is the governor from Minnesota on his first day on the ticket.
Donald Trump's not fighting for you or your family, he never said.
At that kitchen table like the one I grew up at, wondering how we were going to pay the bills. He said, his country club up in mar Lago, wondering how he can cut taxes for his rich friends.
You can take my word for it. He got the crowd in a lather. Now, we spent a lot of time yesterday. He talked to Brad Howard. We talked to a number of Democratic strategists about this moment for the party, the way Democrats would be framing this new entrance, a new entrant to the race. And we want to get a better sense of the Republican messaging that we're seeing now, as we've heard. Dangerously liberal is how the Trump campaign is billing Tim Walls, along with of course Amala Harris.
But this is still evolving. And we're joined now by Charlie Dent, former Republican congressman from none other than Pennsylvania. He has a very good sense of the conversation that's going on right here as also senior advisor of our Republican legacy. Charlie, it's great to have you back on Bloomberg. Thanks for joining us. Is Tim Walls dangerously liberal? No?
I probably wouldn't describe him that way. I know Tim Walls, I know him well, I served him. We traveled to Afghanistan together as a member of as members of Congress, Afghanistan and Iraq. He was very committed to veterans issues, defense issues, certainly agriculture.
He was.
He represented him more I'll say a slightly in Republican district. So he was fairly moderate as a as a member of the House. I think he's a bit more progressive as a governor. I think it's fair to say that Tim Walls is certainly more progressive than Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly, but he's not a wild eye progressive either, you know, like Omar and some of the others that
you could think about. My quick take on it, and I think that in many respects, Republicans are breathing a sigh of relief that Kamala Harris had not select Josh Shapiro for a variety of reasons.
Well, that's interesting. Donald Trump this morning on Fox and Friends says he was delighted to learn that it's Tim Walls fulfilling the scenario that you're outlining here. Does Tim Walls actually make the job easier or we just given way too much credit to the running mate on both.
Sides well, I think that's the which says is true that most people really don't base their votes for president on the vice presidential selection.
Tim Walls does no harm to the.
Democrats, and you know, and I think he'll probably be an effective attack dog for Kamala Harris.
But does she really does he really bring any.
Additional votes to Pennsylvania. No, he doesn't. It doesn't bring any votes to Kamala Harris as far as I can tell. You know, Shapiro, of course, would have been a much more formable opponent for Trump in vance in Pennsylvania because on the margins, I think Shapiro could have helped Harris considerably in the Philadelphia media market and on the margins. And this game is going to be won or lost on the margins. And so that's why I think Republicans
are relieved. Because Shapiro had a more centrist view of the world. And what's remarkable is do all the attacks against Josh Shapiro were coming from the far left. All they were doing was centering him and frankly her, but she chose not to. And plus, of course, Kamala Harris came out for a fracking ban in twenty twenty, which is not going to help her, particularly in western Pennsylvania.
In other parts of northern Pennsylvania, the natural gas is such a big part of the economy, and of course Pennsylvania's the second largest natural gas producing state in the nation after Texas.
So yeah, Republicans are breathing aside of relief.
But I don't think Vance or Walls are going to make a determination on the outcome of this election. It's all about Donald Trump and it's all about common Will Harris at this point.
Yeah, fascinating. She did change her position on the fracking thing.
I don't know if that matters or if anyone's listening in Pennsylvania, but give us a sense of what your home state is thinking here, because part of the Democratic narrative yesterday Congressman was that Tim Walls might not be from Pennsylvania, he might not be able to deliver the electoral votes, but he can speak to Pennsylvania that it's the personality, the character, the tone that will carry the ticket straight across the rust Belt.
Do you buy that?
Well, I think they may want to try to deploy Tim Walls in Pennsylvania, Michigan, in Wisconsin. It may be in some areas where Democrats struggle and thinking that he might be able to help them cut down in the margins. But as I said, I just don't think that the second that the second fiddle is really going to determine the votes. I mean, Republicans are going to relentlessly attack this, this ticket of Harris, of Harris Waltz as being you know, toold.
Though.
They'll certainly go after Tim Waltz on Minneapolis burning in twenty.
Twenty but I yeah, but sure they're going to try to.
Deploy Tim Waltz in areas that where Democrats may struggle a bit and they think they can cut down in the margins. I don't know how successful they will be. If you if you look at the map of Minnesota where Tim Waltz, how he performed in twenty twenty two, he and Joe Biden, I think, performed about the same in the same cant They won the same counties. And
I keep looking back at Pennsylvania. I look at the you know, Josh Shapiro won a lot oft won a lot of counties that Donald Trump did, and that's where I kept looking at this. Oh, this is all about crossover voters. So my my ruthlessly pragmatic political mind. I'm thinking, well, why would you just select a guy who can help you deliver the state you must win? You know, Pennsylvania is the whole ballgame for kam La Harris. She loses Pennsylvania,
she loses the election. So I thought, oh, Shapiro's easy because he had a lot of crossover appeal. A lot of Trump voters voted for Shapiro. So I thought this was a pretty straightforward case. But that's not where we are. And I just don't think, like I said, Waltz does no harm. He's a good he's a decent, he's an honorable man. He'll be an effective attacker for Harris. But I just don't see where he brings the additional votes that Harris didn't already. That doesn't bring any vance, doesn't
bring anything either that Trump didn't already have. In fact, he can make a case Van's probably a bit of a liability to Trump at this point.
That's been the narrative recently as well. I'm just compelled by the two characterizations that we're seeing here. Maybe you can help me rationalize them. You know what Democrats say, he's a coach, right, he was a teacher Army National guardsman, became a congressman. Rural he's a hunter, right, we heard a lot about that yesterday. He's a sportsman. Well, we're hearing from Republicans. Is he turned his state into a trans refuge, that Minnesota was a sanctuary state for immigrants,
that he wanted to give Eagles driver's licenses. And by the way, while he's at it, the campaign manager for Donald Trump, Chris las Savita, is now fan in the flames that he bailed on his military service, almost like a swift boat kind of a routine. Is any of that real? Should Democrats be acknowledging this?
Well?
I think the attack on his service record is a fool's errand I mean, he served honorably in the National Guard. They should leave it alone and thank him for his service.
So yeah, look, if the Trump campaign has been.
Fairly disciplined this time out of the gate, of course, Donald Trump is not very disciplined, and he runs off on tangents. And I think the Trump campaign would be well served to keep this election focused on the issues on inflation, on the border, and even on crime. I think they can make a strong case against the Democrats. I don't think they need to get.
Into these kinds of personal attacks.
I mean, I saw some something to suggest are going to attack him on abortion.
Well okay, well guess what.
Walls and the Democrats are in a better place on abortion than the Republicans are, So I'm not sure that's an effective attack. Again, I'm not so sure that these attacks on transgender people are really going.
To be that effective either.
I think they're much better talking about the economy, inflation, reporter, and crime. But they need to be disciplined about it. Going off on these tangents and making you know, wild accusations, criticizing his service record, and going after Kamala Harris Is saying she turned black. You know, this is absurd and it's actually very damaging to the Republican effort.
I think that's what Charlie, Republicans.
It's great to have you back, sir, with the view from Pennsylvania former Republican Congressman Charlie Dent On Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York State. Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.
A lot of people, I hear a lot of people are making a habit of it. Donald Trump's been hearing things too, casting about on truth social as we were preparing to hear from Kamala Harris and Tim Wallas last night. He writes, what are the chances it's got? Anything that starts with what are the chances has got to be good. That crooked Joe Biden, the worst president in the history of the US, whose presidency was unconstitutionally stolen from him by is it camabla he's calling. I don't even know
what that is anymore. He's comabla, all right? Fast forward? What are the chances? He crashes the Democrat National Convention, he writes and tries to take back the nomination, beginning with challenging me to another debate. I wonder what was for dinner last night or for lunch at mar A Lago.
Lisa Kamuso Miller is with us, so I want her impression on this new ticket and exactly what's going to happen with the chances of a debate not with Joe Biden but with Kamala Harris, Lisa, are you hearing this too? Joe Biden wants back in Hi.
No, No, I'm not. I think that that's a lot of wish casting on the side of the former president. I think he's wishing that maybe he could go back to the original ticket that he had to debate, because I think that he's in for a bit of a challenge when it comes to standing next to Kamala Harris on that debate stage.
Well, what are you thinking about the new ticket? We haven't had a chance to talk it out since certainly they appeared in public, or since it was just my god, that was just yesterday. Oh my god, it was announced yesterday. I was going to say it like a week ago. Yes,
all right. So you've seen them in concept on paper, now you've seen them on stage as well, and that was quite a rally for these two last night, the biggest crowd they've seen yet, Lisa, A lot of folk thought this was going to be Josh Shapiro, what do you make.
Of the pick?
You know, if you'd asked me yesterday morning, I might have said that I thought that it was a bit of a ho hum announcement. But boy, I watched that event yesterday with her announcement and announcing Governor Walls, and I was surprised and impressed with his approach. I felt like he really spoke to some of the issues that people are looking for guidance on, that are really looking
for leadership on. And as much as I'm talking to my friends on the Republican side, I'm talking to a lot of political people in general that are starting to point out that perhaps that this has now become a
race between the two bases because the issues. As much as Governor Walls really does have a point of view that sounds a lot like a Republican in some ways and manner, he also has been very much in favor of some progressive points of view that I think that the Republican ticket will now take and turn in a way to try try to separate the two tickets in a base versus base contest. And I think that that's what we're going to see over the course of the next ninety days.
All Right, this is really important. This is why we wanted Lisa to join us here because you can paint him. I've heard this all over the last twenty four hours in some part right here at this desk, Lisa, that he's a moderate, or you can paint him as a dangerous liberal, another progressive as we're hearing from Donald Trump.
And there's quite a line up here right look at his record as governor Minnesota, sanctuary state, a trans refuge according to the AP, menstrual sanitation products available in boys bathrooms, illegals getting driver's licenses. This makes a hell of a campaign, at Lisa, That's what we're going to hear for the next couple of months.
Yes, and we've known this, Joe, You and I've talked about this a dozen times before. This is going to be the nastiest race, even more now because the fight really comes down to that fight for the middle, that fight for who gets that coveted center right and center left voting block. And it's become so much more narrow
than ever before. And so that just means that the base will definitely be with Harris, maybe more so than folks that were going to be with Joe Biden because they were concerned about his ability to lead at this late state in his life, but also to now the
base is firmly behind Donald Trump and JD. Vance and this too, Joe, what I've said now over the course of the last couple of hours of folks is it becomes a popularity contest who is more likable and who is more perceived as the one who can work across the aisle to get things done, because people, regardless of where they feel about progressive issues or conservative issues, in the middle is where the race will be won. And there'll be a race over a very very narrow margin.
And that's the one where folks can say who can work across the aisles, who can get the job done, and who also really brings the temperature back down in the US because the temperature in terms of the dialogue, in terms of the fighting, the vitriol is really so high that people are just exhausted and they're looking for
some reprieve. And after watching last night right now, if the race we're between the two in a popularity contest in terms of who's more likable, it sure looks like the Democratic ticket is going to win over the Republican ticket if that were the foundation of what the folks are looking to vote for.
The Center for Effective Lawmaking ranked him the seventh number seven most bipartisan member of the House during his final year in Congress to your point, Lisa, but we're going to be hearing a lot about swift voting, and I'm curious where you see this going. Chris Lsovita, the co campaign manager for Donald Trump, has been fanning the flames on this, and he knows a little bit about it, having done this to John Carry. Remember swift vote, veterans
for truth. We're talking about how Tim Walls quote unquote bailed on his military service, that he quit the National Guard in two thousand and five to run for governor on the eve essentially of his being called up to deploy to Iraq? Is that a fair line of attack? Will we hear more about it?
Isn't that? Joe?
Not to interrupt, but isn't that rich? Because I know a lot of folks that serve in Vietnam that are happy to talk about how Donald Trump was a draft dodger. So I don't think we have a lot of room to wiggle on this side. I don't think that that's one that's going to be a winnable point of view.
They can talk about that swift boat all day long, but the truth is is that he is a veteran and he has served in a way that the ticket on the Republican side has not, and that to me, is a very tricky slope to go down, and it's one that I think will not necessarily work in their favor because there are a lot of veterans that really feel like Donald Trump was not necessarily honest about his own ability to serve when time came for him to do that.
Yeah, picking through the talking points here with the person who used to run communications at the RNC, I want to ask you about this debate because everyone is looking forward to it happening. Until this morning, didn't really think it would. But Donald Trump got on Fox and Friends. You know, he gets on the phone. They let him go for like a half an hour. Well, it sure sounds like there's going to be a debate.
Now.
Listen to what he said.
I don't know how she debates, he hears she's sort of a nasty person, but not a good debater. But we'll see, because we'll be debating her, I guess in the pretty dear future. It's going to be announced fairly soon, but we'll be debating her. I'd like to see it on Fox. By the way, when he was.
Asked what about ABC, he did the whole Sloppala Doppolis thing and insulted everybody there but said, hey, takes two to tango. Sounds like the former president believes he needs to debate Kamala Harris, Lisa, what do you think you know?
I'll believe it when I see it.
Joe.
I think anybody in that camp would know that she is a very skilled debater. She was a litigator, she was an Aterurney general, She did very well in the debates, even on the Democratic side. She has been coached, and she herself is very disciplined in the way that she
responds and reacts. I mean, the last time we saw Donald Trump on stage, he was very much offensive to everyone in the audience, and I suspect that unless they're very careful about the way he debates a woman, it's really going to be one of those things that will be jarring and very much not helpful to his campaign.
Calling a female nasty is just playing wrong and just playing it smacks in the face of the way that Donald Trump has carefully and not so carefully conducted himself when he's in a debate with someone that doesn't look exactly like him, and that I think is one that he absolutely needs to be very careful about in his campaign. I'm sure with the talent that's in that room, they are doing the same. They are very cautious and very thoughtful about how that's going to look.
I'll be very curious to hear the nickname that he settles on for Tim Walls. Big picture, Lisa, with your Republican hat on, does this not make it easier for the Trump vance ticket than it will have been with Josh Shapiro as a running mate.
Yeah, I think it does. I mean, I think Governor Shapiro definitely was a pick that folks thought was one that made good political sense. I'm sure that the friends of mine who are in the polling world would tell me that it doesn't necessarily make a difference. But I do think though the fact that Governor Walls has this credibility in Middle America and has definitely got the bona fides. The debate to me that is going to be most interesting to watch is the one that we're going to
see between the two vice presidential candidates. So as much as I like to think that this pick is one that gives a little bit more of an advantage to the Republican ticket than one with Governor Shapiro. I also think that ninety days, as much as you and I know, could go very quickly. It's also the kind of thing that a lot of mischief and a lot of pitfalls are before us before we get done.
Just think of what we're going to go through together for the next and ninety days. Let's see if there is a vice presidential debate. I sure hope, silly. So it's great to have you back, Si Kimussa Miller with an extended conversation. I was looking forward to that. Former RNC communications director and of course host of the Friday Reporter podcast and a dear friend of the program.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then Proudoto.
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Heeley Lines of Joe, Matthew and Washington and the newly minted Democratic ticket on the road somewhere in the skies on the way to Wisconsin and of course later Michigan. Today, but yesterday they launched the Harris Waaltz campaign officially in Philadelphia at a rally at Temple University, which drew some ten thousand people. We brought coverage of that for you
live here on Bloomer TV and radio. You could hear often the exuberance in the room as both the current vice president Kamala Harris, and then that she would like to serve as her vice president, Tim Walls spoke. Here's a little taste of what Harris told the assembled crowd.
I got some mark to do.
We need to move to the general election and win that. And to all the friends listen, we also need to level set. We are the underdogs in this race, but we have the momentum and I know exactly what we are up against.
Kamala Harris with her new running mate at her side in Philadelphia late yesterday. As Kaylie mentioned, we brought you special coverage to what turned out to be a pretty long event there for the two and the grand unveiling. And that's where we start our conversation right now with Adrianna Loencron reporting on the campaign for Bloomberg has endured
many of these rallies and has many more booked. Hadrian, it's great to see you when we consider I hate to do this every time you come in here, but the amount of stuff that has happened and that you've witnessed firsthand, and I guess the last three weeks now since the attempted assassination is just remarkable. It's going to take us a long time, I feel like to unpack this, to rebuild it in our heads and really figure out
what happened. But you're tasked with writing the first draft of history here, and you've got a new campaign that is bringing an enormous amount of enthusiasm that I'm guessing you were not seeing at Joe Biden events before.
Absolutely. I mean I was at the Harris rally. It was the first one since he had gotten the pledged number of delegates to be the presumptive Democratic nominee, and the atmosphere was definitely different. Everyone is saying the vibe
is shifting. That's apparently the terms we're using. But essentially, you know, and I speak to voters everywhere I go, whether it's Trump, it's Biden, it's terrorists, and these are people who are now excited because it's not just they're voting against someone, it's they're voting for someone, And this is something that I think even everyone was kind of wondering about. Would the Democratic Party coalesce behind one person? There'd be more division until we finally get maybe even
all the way up to the convention. And so having someone that the party is rallying around, having now a new VP whom the party is rallying around, you're definitely feeling that in the air well.
But there's something to be said about a honeymoon period or a sugar rush, if you will, Hedriana, this is all incredibly new. We're talking a campaign that's just over two weeks old. How do they sustain this momentum? What's the plan?
Absolutely and as you said, it's a great honeymoon, let's just start with that. I mean they're bringing in a lot. I think it's now thirty six million or something. Sent Waltz was on the ticket even before that. The fundraising has a clipped Trump. Where before we saw what wasn't advantage for Biden. Actually now the Trump was the Trump campaign was going beyond that. Now we're seeing the tables
turn and the pulling turns. But I think what's important now is it's not just the money that's coming in but it's really looking at the map, and so having Harris now at the top of the ticket, having Walls, who brings in kind of the Midwestern appeal, there are way more states in play, so so again we're looking at these swing states. Both you know, Vance on the
Trump campaign and Harris. They're going on these swing state tours and we're really going to see how they're able to appeal to all of the different voters.
Here.
What's Donald Trump's schedule look like right now? Because I find it interesting that you've got Kamala Harris and sim Walls. You've got the full ticket, going to Eau Claire today, going to Detroit today.
JD.
Vance is doing a solo tour across the Midwest right now, without the top of the ticket with him. Doesn't everyone want to see Donald Trump? What's that all about?
Right?
I mean, Trump is definitely down a bit this week. I'm going to be with him in Montana on Friday, which is not the most traditional place that you would think, but there is of course a competitive congressional race going on there and we'll likely see him touch on that. But I think he's kind of giving Vance this opportunity to shine. I think also the way it kind of lines up with Walls, you know, being introduced to the
Democratic ticket. Now the attention is kind of on both of them, and usually you know, I have people telling me, oh, vps don't really have to have too much of an impact, But I think everyone is still looking at them. They kind of know Trump already, they know Harris in the sense of they know her as VP. Obviously she has to come figure out how she's going to separate from Biden or you know, the opposite of that. There's kind
of a tricky balance there. But in terms of these tvps, they're relatively new generally to the public, and so this is kind of their chance, and there's definitely a test. We know Vance has come under fire for some comments as of late. You know, we may see the same with Walls. Things maybe you know, come up, it's this is the time for this is their introduction.
Let's say, well, it's not just Jade Vance who has come under fire for comments. You were at the NABJ conference where Donald Trump openly questioned Harris's racial identity and was very combative with the journalists who were moderating him at that event. There has been throughout this campaign, this narrative that the Trump campaign is more disciplined this time. The campaign, though, is one thing, the candidate is something else.
Is there a sense that Donald Trump is going to get more disciplined with the messaging.
That's a good question.
I think we definitely it's a bit more discipline. I'm thinking specifically, in the wake of all of the fury over Biden and the age and whether he should step down, he was kind of quiet. He actually was pretty disciplined. Then we didn't really hear from him. He kind of let Biden have all of the negative news coverage. But now we're seeing things change, We're seeing Harris come up.
There's a lot of enthusiasm, a lot of the earned media is going towards her, and I think he is now kind of back in the situation where he's trying to go on the offense. And so he's been testing out a bunch of different things, as you know, nabj as an example of something that did it stick maybe not? Did it help kind of bring in the black voters
that he needs, maybe not? And so we're going to continue to see obviously some of the cities that you know, Vance was in Philadelphia to Trump have been to Philadelphia. These are cities that they need, they need the black population. But again you have Harris. Harris was just in Atlanta. She's bringing in the goods, as you may say, with
Magnie Stallion and all of these other rappers. You know, in Philly there was a DJ So it'll be very interesting to see kind of just the juxtaposition between the two and who they're trying to attract.
And of course you'll be there to cover it all for us. Hedriana loonecron busy girl for Bloomberg these days.
We appreciate it.
Thank you so much for being with us. And as we assess, actually to Hedrian's point, what impact, if at all, a vice presidential are selection in governor Walls actually will have on this campaign. We turned out to Charlie Cook, of course, its founder and contributor to the Cook Political Report. Charlie, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's always good to have you. We made a very big deal about this yesterday. Obviously there was quite an introduction of Walls
of the vice presidential candidate last night. Does it really change the race meaningfully?
You know, I don't think so. I mean there are all these cliches that are fundamentally right, that people vote for president, not vice president, and that vice running mates can can hurt more than they can help. And I think people put way too much emphasis on a delivering a state. I mean, I think in twenty twenty four, nobody's delivering anybody, and you know, even historically at most of point or two in a home state. And that's
not necessary, that's not really provable. So I don't think it's gonna make a big difference in that sense, but I do think he will. I think I think Walls is going to line up really well with Vance in a debate, and I think he projects. It's interesting that
he does two almost contradictory things. One thing is he comes across so heartland and grew up at a farm in Nebraska, Minnesota, all this, and at the same time, the real progresses and the Democratic Party really like him, and it sort of frees up Harris to try to stay more towards the center than than you know, she might have to if she were having to put out
fires on her left and that rate. One other point is that the fact that Democrats got a fresh nominee without having to do a primary, a nomination fight that would pull all their candidates over to the left and way away from swing voters, from undecided voters. I think that's a plus. But this is still you know, this is gonna be a really really competitive race.
Really interesting, Charlie, because we're hearing everything about Tim Walls. He's everything. He runs a sanctuary state, he's pro trands. I keep hearing he's giving drivers' licenses to illegal immigrants. Some say that he's a populist economist, but then I heard last night in Philadelphia he's a coach. It's coach Walls. He's a teacher, he's an Army National guardsman. Which identity emerges here.
Well, it probably depends on the eye of the beholder who's looking. But the thing is he he does had some very very progressive liberal policies, but he doesn't come up. He comes across in a more reassuring and not a threatening way. And you know, in politics, as you guys know, you know, perception is a heck of a lot more important than reality. And he seems to have a good bedside manner, if you will. And I know it's kind
of a very interesting pick. I didn't really expect it, but people that have worked closely with him other governors. I've talked to House members, and to be honest, this guy who served six terms in the House sort of under the radar screen, not a flashy guy, not a self promoter, but the people that have worked with him closely, they seem to think very highly of him.
Well, not everyone thinks highly of him or highly of the choice, Charlie. There is a narrative ongoing that is being encouraged by the Republican ticket. Donald Trump was talking about this on Fox and Friends this morning. This notion that the selection of Walls over Governor Josh Shapiro, a Jewish Man, was an anti semitic one, keeping in mind here that the Vice president is married, also to a Jewish Man, the Second Gentleman of the United States, Doug M. Hoff.
Is that a message that will resonate with anyone who was not already part of the Trump base.
You know, I don't think that's much of a I mean, heck, did in former President Trump picking jd Vance and not someone who is Jewish? Was that anti semitic?
No?
I think that's kind of you know, anybody who believes that is going to want to believe that and will believe, will believe anything else. I mean, the thing is, I think the race has changed in that, you know, Biden is out of the way, age, health all out of the way, but fundamentals are still there. The map is still hard, still tilts more Republican than Democrat, with sort
of you know Republican. We've talked about this before, Republican votes being more efficiently allocated around the country, and the cost of living, economic anxiety, border which were real problems for Biden. Those have conveyed over and it may not be one to one, but it's you know, zero point nine to one. I mean, it's very very close, and those are still problems that she's going to have to
deal with. But I think this, I think the pick was it was a solid pick, and I don't think it will affect the Oltchemy election, but I will it will make for an interesting vice presidential debate, that's for sure.
God let's see if we get one enter the incumbent Charlie Cook. Political reporting today that aids to Biden and Harris are considering plans to bring him back onto the campaign trail and appear with her. Is that smart or should Kamala Harris try to stay as far away from Joe Biden for the balance of this campaign.
Oh, I don't think it. Well, I mean, the thing is that Biden, you know, yes, the Biden administration had I mean, there was a reason why he dropped fourteen percentage points in his gallop job approval rating between July and October of two thousand twenty one, and a lot was inflation all that stuff. But at the same time, ultimately what pushed Biden out of the race was perception that, look, this guy's too old to serve effectively for four more years.
And I think a lot of voters, to be honest, back in twenty twenty, it was never explicitly said, but they thought this was going to be one and done, that Biden would serve one term and move on. And it was never promised. He didn't break a promise, but it was sort of implied and probably would have been a good idea, you know, to stick with that. But you know, so, I don't think her campaigning. I don't
think Harris camp. First of all, if she didn't campaign with him some, it would look terrible, it would look awful. So I think do it at some makes a whole lot of sense. But his job, you know, he's going to be sticking to his day job being president, you know, till January twentieth.
Well, as we consider Joe Biden, Charlie, you of course, in the after math of the debate, we're on this program talking about how it was already going to be hard for him to win now the path had gotten that much smaller. He seems to have ultimately recognized that as well. When you're looking now at the path for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, both of them, who's as easier right now? Or is this simply too close to call it this stage?
Well, to me, the fundamentals still favor Trump, that is map and the issue agenda. But you know, Donald Trump has always been somewhat erratic. I think the last four or five months he's been more so, and he seems genuinely rattled since Biden dropped out of the race. And you know, I'm sort of there's a side to me that thinks that Harris can't win, but Trump can lose, and that if Trump loses, it's going to be him
beating himself. And it is kind of interesting that, you know, around Donald Trump and when he was president, it was like total chaos. But there's a sense from the public that the country was doing okay. And during the Biden administration, well, he personally isn't a chaotic person, but things in the country and things around the world were increasingly chaotic and
seemed out of control. And I think that's one thing that's just sort of working again, working back towards Trump, is that they look back and see his administration the country. They think voter swing voters think the country did better under Trump, and so they assumed that it probably would again.
And there Charlie could come back and talk to us when we have more time. Charlie, it's great to have you on Bloomberg.
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It's been quite a turnaround we've seen in the presidential race as well as we've kept track of here on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and radio. We've had a series of questions. The first a few weeks ago was whether or not Joe Biden was going to stay in the race. We got that answer, Would he endorse someone else? We got that answer too. Now Kamala Harris is officially the Democratic nominee. Then we wondered who would join her on the ticket. We learned yesterday that it's
Governor Tim Walls of Minnesota. We still have one question out there, though, and that is will we see Kamala Harris share a debate stage with Donald Trump before the election. Remember she wanted to debate on ABC on September tenth. He's pitching September fourth on Fox. But he had this to say on Fox and Friends this morning.
I don't know how she debates, he hears she's sort of a nasty person, but not a good debater. But we'll see, because we'll be debating her, I guess in the pretty dear future. It's going to be announced fairly soon, but we'll be debating her. I'd like to see it on Fox.
By the way, I'm still exhausted from Kaylee lines wind up into that moment earlier today on Fox and Friends. So are we going to debate. How about the vice presidential candidates. Let's assemble our panel. Rick Davis is here, of course, Republican strategist, Bloomberg Politics, contributor and partner at Stone Court Capital, alongside Janey Wartel, Democratic strategist and partner at Ark Initiatives. Great to see you both, Rick. I
don't know where we're going to go on this. You and I and Kaylee and everyone have been talking for months and months about whether you should allow even a candidate on a stage with Donald Trump. Did Joe Biden learn the lesson for Kamala Harris in this case? Because it sounds like this might actually happen.
Yeah, it does sound like it might happen. I would have expected Donald Trump to reject a debate, but because I know, you know, his folks are all concerned by his debate performance. They feel like they dodged the bullet because even though he did a poor job in the debate, that's nothing compared to the suicide pack that Joe Biden had going into that debate. So I guess I guess they feel under some pressure. They want the media narrative
to be kind to Donald Trump. Donald Trump in that interview that you played was going on and on about how the network's just absolutely love him and are dying to have him on, and so the fanning of the narcissistic flame is so important to Donald Trump that not saying yes to a network invitation would would be a defeat to his ego.
So yeah, I guess there's gonna be a debate. And it sounds like maybe.
Sooner than later split the difference. I mean, these negotiations go on and on like this, but at least we're going to have something to do in early September, it sounds like, and it could actually have a bearing on the outcome of the campaign. So we've seen all kinds of major events lately and it doesn't sound like we're.
Done with them.
Well on this idea of but having an actual bearing on the campaign. If we're running with this idea, janay that this is going to happen at some point before voters have actually cast their vote. Is it more likely? I just wonder what the risk reward is here for each candidate. Is it more likely that it could convince someone to vote for Kamala Harris or Trump, or that instead it could convince voters not to vote for them. But not necessarily to vote for the other if you follow.
Yeah, So we just have to look at the past debate. You know, when Joe Biden took the stage next to Donald Trump, we saw a tremendous amount of viewer engagement. A record number of viewers turned in tuned into that debate, and I think the reason was because they wanted to see this contrast on full display. They wanted to see
kind of this Donald Trump Joe Biden matchup. And so I think in the same way, given all of the energy that's been surrounding the selection, all of the twists and turns that we've seen, I think people are eager to see them standing right next to each other on
a debate stage. So I think you're going to have a lot of folks tuning in, not just members of each of their their base their bases, but also voters who are undecided, right, voters who haven't really gotten to know Vice President Harris and the way that they may know Donald Trump or the way they might have known Joe Biden. They want to really see and hear from her and really be able to put that contrast into context on a debate stage. So I think this absolutely
helps Vice President Harris. We know she's a skilled debater.
We know that.
You know, she's even kind of provoked Donald Trump with the line, if you have something to say, say it to my face. But I also think she's she's ready enough to the challenge, whereas I think Donald Trump will regress to the name calling he's often known for. We've seen his line of attack on her, and I think it will really make him look very small and very unpresidential.
Well, on the say it to my face part, it is worth pointing out that we heard that line not from Kamala Harris but from NICKI Hates back in February when she was still competing against Trump in the Republican primary, and he refused to debate her or anyone else.
For that matter.
Yeah. Ow true.
You wonder as well if we're going to be talking about a vice presidential debate here. All this stuff has yet to come together. This is just the latest drip that we have from Donald Trump, and of course, Kayley, that could change the next time he decides to do an interview. I'd like to ask you both about what happened on primary night. This is pretty interesting. Less about
the outcome of the races. More about the wait for results in Michigan, specifically bringing us back to twenty twenty two, five point thirty eight wrote this up Rick, a technical change and how votes are reported meant that Wayne County, Michigan took days to report its votes and we might have a repeat performance here. Less than one percent of the expected vote had been reported in the primary for the thirteenth Congressional district more than two hours after polls
closed last night. Are you concerned about this?
Rick?
How worry should we about delayed results adding to the noise on a lot of confusion in November?
Yeah, I'm I'm.
Pretty concerned about it. I've never quite understood why there isn't more uniformity in reporting procedures. States. All I get it make their decisions based on state law and the appropriate use of the ballot box in those places. But the reality is, haven't we learned the lesson that the sooner we can get these reports out the better States aren't consistent when it comes to, for instance, mail in ballots.
Some states have a vast majority of their votes as early voting mail in ballots, and and they and some don't count them before election day and others do, and and and why in the world wouldn't you count mail in ballants before election day and then have you have your responses ready to go in in a timely manner. I think the American public deserves some transparency there. I think they deserve to know who wins and who loses. I think that's the obligation of these state election officials
to create better transparency in the reporting process. And as we have seen, the lack of early reporting results in every conspiracy theory known to man and undermines the integrity of an American election. So, you know, get with it, guys. If you haven't gotten a memo yet, get it. People want to know what happens when they cast their vote, and they want to know in a timely manner.
Yeah, an on behalf of journalists we'd like to know in a timely manner as well. Say this with a self interest. But as we look to the primaries yesterday, it wasn't just what happened in Michigan, but also in the state of Missouri Janey were incumbent congresswoman and member of the Squad Corey Bush went down in her primary, the second Squad member to lose after Jamal Bowman lost his primary race in New York earlier this year, a lot of APEC money, of course, was thrown into that race.
Given her stance when it comes to Israel and the conflict in Gaza, is that really what is to blame here? And does that make it a translatable pattern into the general election for other candidates that may find themselves on the wrong side of the line. What do you attribute her loss to?
Well, I think in any election where you have a tremendous infusion of money behind negative messaging, that it's going to be influential, right, And that's not about this isolated election, that's about any election. And so whenever you see an infusion of money such as what a PAC dumped in this race, you're going to see that there's going to be a driving message that's going to alienate some voters
and it's going to galvanize other voters. And I think that's what you saw here in this race in Missouri, but also what you saw with Jamal Bowman's race, getting issue, getting voters to focus on on a singular issue despite other issues being important for elections of members of Congress, you're going to be able to have a tremendous impact
on the election. And I think that when you look at this primary race, I think you see that the spending, the messaging, it was kind of a perfect storm for there to be kind of some backlash against Representative bush Well.
Millions spent by Apak in the primary here against bush and the same in New York against Bowman Rick. What role will Apak play in the general election?
You know, I think that they've done their damage on the members who they felt were needlessly negative toward Israel. Their job is to help support Israel and their support in the United States, so I think most of that is done. I would be surprised if they get involved in the general election at the presidential level, so they
may pick a few winners and back people. In congressional level, they will start to look at whether or not it's better to have a Republican Congress or a Democratic Congress. And part of that construct is who are they think is going to be president? You know, do you want a divided government? So I think the real impact they have and has been felt and been wildly successful, is weeding out some of these folks who they felt were really antagonists to the Israeli cause.
All right.
Rick Davis, Republican strategists and partner at Stone Court Capital, together today with Janelle Wartel, Democratic strategists and partner at ARC Initiatives, our political panel. We appreciate it. Thank you both so much.
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Now, as we consider the jobs market, we want to talk about labor specifically, especially when it comes to unionized labor. As the Vice President, Kamala Harris is getting ready with her now running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walls, to travel from Wisconsin, where they are currently to Detroit, Michigan, later today to appear alongside UAW President Sean Fain at a
rally in Detroit. This, of course, comes after the selection of Walls was widely praised by Fain and other major labor organizations, as he is someone who is seen as very labor friendly. We want to dig into that a little bit deeper now and bring in Sharon Block. She's professor of Practice at Harvard Law School. She's executive director of the Center for Labor and a Just Economy. She's also former labor advisor in the Biden White House. Sharon,
Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's great to have you. Obviously, there's been a lot of talk about how labor friendly Governor Walls really is. Is he more so than Kamala Harris being part of this Biden administration that claims it is the most union friendly of all time in a more material way or are they just singing the same tune on this?
You know, I think that's a great competition to have. I think they both have incredibly strong records for labor. I mean again, you know, you have Vice President Harris, who has been part of what I think is generally accepted to be the most pro labor administration ever or at the very least in generations. You know, I think
they've shown that leadership often in very similar ways. You know, going to Detroit, you have to think about both of them have been very strong supporters for the UAW, both President Biden and Vice President Harris, and then Governor Walls. You have Vice President Harris really showing leadership within the administration on sort of all issues labor, as she did share the task force on collective bargaining and worker empowerment.
But she's also been a really clear leader on looking out for the rights and protecting domestic workers, care workers. I mean she is her time in the Senate, she was very much looked to as a leader in the care economy, labor issues. And then you have Governor Walls in his state doing some really remarkable advancements and policy for working people. So I think they both got very strong records. They have shown that sometimes in similar ways and sometimes in slightly different ways.
Well, it's certainly lining up with Sharon. It's not just the UAW, it's the afl CIO afs Me says it's a big fan of Tim Walls. Nea likes to pick the AFT. I could keep going down the list here, but of course the leadership of the union movement is one thing. Remembering that about a third of the membership of the UAW voted for Donald Trump last time, who's going to vote for Harris Walls.
So you know, I think you see in Governor Walls, I mean he is a union member. He spent a fair bit of his adult life as a union member, as a teacher, a public school teacher. So I think that's really going to resonate with union members. But also we're in a very different place now in this election.
Donald Trump and his running mate JD. Vans, they have a record now and if you look at the record of the Trump administration last time on labor issues, I think this is going to be a very different picture for union members when they go to the polls to make their decision.
Well, what we've heard from not just Donald Trump but also his running mate, Senator JD. Vance, he has talked a lot about the working man, but he adds in the detail of union or non union frequently. How should we be thinking about that idea? Sharon, What does that actually mean to you?
I think what that means to me is is, well, what it should mean is building a working class, a middle class, a working class that can sustain a family, that can provide you know, security for all workers. Now, I happen to believe, and I think the record is strong that that happens most robustly when workers are in a union. So supporting the labor movement is actually supporting an economy that works for all workers union wages. Union members get paid more than non union workers in similar
jobs in similar industries. But when a union is strong in an industry, it actually raises wages for everybody. So strongly supporting the labor movement is actually a way of supporting all workers. And you know, I think if you look at the Trump record, you just don't see that commitment to either looking out for the economic interests of
union members or non union members. I mean, you had in the Trump administration, you have add an administration that wanted to roll back overtime protections that you know, sort of abandoned workers during the pandemic. They are running on a platform and if you look at Project twenty twenty five, it's it is just full of policies that will really hurt working people. I mean, for example, they actually say the quiet part out loud in that in that report
that they want to roll back child labor protections. How can anybody running on that ticket say that they care about working people if they want to, they want to encourage young people to go into dangerous jobs. So you know, you can say jd Vance can say what he wants to say, But I think if you compare the records of the Biden Harris administration and then the what the trumpetmen did last time they were in power and what
they've told us they're going to do next time. It's bad news for working people, whether they're in a union or not.
Well share in the fact of the matter is, Kamala Harris is still trailing Donald Trump, and in some cases significantly when it comes to matters of the economy. Even in our own Bloomberg swing state pole, which includes Michigan and Wisconsin, where we're finding these two candidates today when it comes to how do you handle the stock market?
Who do you trust more? When it comes to interest rates, the price of goods, and the price of services, Donald Trump was anywhere from five to seven almost ten points ahead of Kamala Harris. So what's the message here, Because we're talking about potentially an economic slow down this week, a stock market that's starting to look wobbly. Does Kamala Harris deserve to carry Joe Biden's economic baggage with her in this campaign?
Well, I think the Biden Harris administration has a strong record. You know, we all know there are moments of volatility, But I think if you look at the record of this administration over three and a half years, I think it's a record that Kamala Harris and Tim Wallas are
going to be very proud to run on. If you look at the number of jobs created, if you look at how much inflation has come down, I mean, just remembering what it was like at the beginning of the Biden Harris administration, the sort of crisis that this country was in, that our economy was in. So I think it's an incredibly strong record that she's going to be proud to run on. And again, you just have to go back and look at how the Trump administration treated
working people. You know, I think people don't live the stock market. They live how much do they get paid, do they have a job, how are their communities doing? And I think when they look at those kinds of issues, I mean, just on job creation, this administration has a record that is second to none. I think that's what when people have to make this decision, that's what's going to be important to them.
Well, in our final moment with you, Sharon, as we talk about job creation, those numbers are going down. We saw a very soft jobs report on Friday in a higher unemployment rate that caused people to throw the word growth scare around. Given your knowledge of the labor market in the US, are you worried that things are going to turn in a more material way in these final months leading to November.
I'm really not. I mean, this summer, we can see some volatility. Again, we still were adding jobs in the last jobs report just last week, and if you look at the average over the past few weeks, I mean the past few months, we're still seeing strong job growth and the uptick in the unemployment rate. I mean, again, we want everybody who wants to have a job to
be able to have a job. But you get to an un an increase in the unemployment rate in two ways, either because people have lost jobs or because more people are coming into the economy looking to have a job who hadn't had one before. That's what we saw in
the July job numbers, and that's an important distinction. I think people are want to come in to get jobs because they see that this is an economy that has been growing, where people have been getting jobs, and so, you know, I think it's way too soon to be talking about a trend that is different than the really strong trend that we've seen throughout the Biden administration on job creation.
Well, we really appreciate a great conversation, Sharon. It's good to have you. Professor of Practice at Harvard Law School, Executive director of the Center for Labor and a Just Economy at Harvard, former labor advisors to the Biden White House. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe we haven't already at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.