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Welcome to the Monday edition of Balance of Power. It is Monday here on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube. We're twenty two days out. Well, this is pretty remarkable here with a race that seems to be tightening with time instead of breaking out one way or the other. Were, of course, always following the candidates on the campaign trail as well today and we're going to be headed back to the swing states. We're getting used
to the deal here, of course. Kamala Harris Eerie, Pennsylvania a little bit later on is going to be in Detroit tonight. Donald Trump Oaks, Pennsylvania. You're following along here on your home game with Tim Walls in Wisconsin. He goes to Eau Claire and Green Bay. And we've got a raft of new polling data to sift through here.
I don't know if you do the Sunday morning shows they don't always drive the conversation the way they used to, but much of it centered around this tightening in the campaign at the top of the ticket and the fight over some very important demographics. We're joined by Laura Davison for more here Bloomberg News Politics editor with a new week. We've only got a few three weeks left of this.
It's about time I saw.
You in there. You're cracking the team together in the newsroom. I don't know where you're deploying resources now, but the campaigns are pretty clear about where they are in the swing states, unless you're doing a California romp or something like that for Donald Trump. But we're going to be talking with Cliff Young in a moment from IPSOS. This has become a one point race, maybe a two point race anywhere you look, which means a tide race. Is that how you see it.
That's essentially where we are. And some of these national polls we saw some new numbers over the weekend have really tightened. Harris was up maybe three or four points in some of these, and now it's a one point race. This is something we see as you get closer. You know, some of those people who are undecided break one way
or another. But you know, some of the momentum and you know, the pulling ahead that Harris was doing in you know, August, early September, a lot of that has flatt lined now and this is you know, going to be a race that is going to be want on the margins. And that's why you see you know, Trump, for example, reaching out to women this week, holding a Fox town hall specifically year towards women. Harris this morning out with a plan trying to appeal to black men.
So this is both sides are kind of realizing where the.
Week are, where the week spots are. Did these eleventh hour pitches work typically? I mean we're in within three weeks here. These are obviously constituencies that we're hoping to get some attention before. Now.
You know, for Trump, I mean, opinions of him are so baked in that that may not move the needle a bunch. You know, Harris has been hearing time and time again from voters, we want to know who you are, we want to know what your policies are. So giving people more information, you know, at least it's acknowledging what people are saying they want However, that does give your opponent more fodder to attack you with. It gives people
to find something that they don't like. You know, we heard Obama last week saying that, you know, he's hearing from from young black men in particular, that they are coming up with excuses to not vote for Harris. And so you see this tension playing out within the Democratic Party.
Interesting to hear Kamala Harris yesterday calling for medical records. I don't know if tax returns are coming up here, but they The campaign dispatched speaker Mike Johnson on to Sunday morning talk shows to speak to Donald Trump's health, which is interesting as someone who's not a doctor speaking here. But what does that tell you about the state of the Harris campaign When we're coming back around on issues like this with Poles showing them within a statistical time.
You know, they realized that that age is an issue in this campaign. You know, just ask Joe Biden, you know. And so Harris is you know, she's significantly younger, you know she you know is it looks at when they're next to each other on the stage. You could really see that during the debate. You know, Trump has been able to avoid a lot of the age related criticism that Biden was hit with, even though he's only a
couple of years younger. But this is, you know, something that you know, our polling shows that people you know are worried that, you know, candidates in their late seventies early eighties are too old.
City President Trump, though, does it he and he doesn't seem to be weighed down by these questions that he has faced from months.
It's it's it's really sort of you know, like you know, sort of the teflon don you know, stereotype that a lot of these things that would have been a major issue for other politicians just don't matter for him. He also is sort of advantaged in that because he has a very unique speaking style. You know Biden, when he speaks, he you know, is long, stuffered from a stutter. He
sounded old in a way that Trump. It's sort of like, was that you know, is that age or is that just you know how Trump's you know, speaking patterns exactly.
Yeah, everyone ages differently, as we have learned here as well. So tomorrow pretty important sit down with Donald Trump. It'll be right at this time, right here on this network with our editor in chief sitting down with the former president for the better part of an hour. I suspect you never know what Donald Trump's gonna say. What his closing argument really does seem to be the border doesn't matter what question you ask, we come back to the border. What's Kamala Harris's closing argument.
She is trying to craft this economic message of this you know, opportunity, economy, you know, the border is the top issue for many of in Trump's base. The economy is sort of broadly the top issue in this race. So she is you know, talking about, you know, both making her own case for on housing, on taxes, on you know, creating pathways to education, as well as, you know, refuting Trump's policies, which really are centered around tariffs. She's
branded them as a national sales tax. Democrats have not been particularly good about coming up with some of these catchphrases to explain these more complex, you know, economic you know proposals to the American people. That seems to be one that's sticking.
Great to have some time with Laura Davison. Thank you, Laura as always driving our political coverage here in Washington. Bloomberg News Politics editor on Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. As I mentioned, we were going to add the voice of Cliff Young here, who's coming in once again from IPSO with new numbers over the weekend that really get to the demographics that Laura is talking
about here for Kamala Harris, young black men. And there was a conversation on the late edition of Ballast of Power here on Friday with Quenton James as president of the Collective Pack political strategist. Here's what he told Kaylee Lines about this challenge for the Harris campaign.
Listen, I think the Republicans and Don rep have done a good job of engaging black men, of going after the black vote. One of my criticisms of the Democrats, and I'm a Democrat and proud of it, is that we haven't spent enough money and done enough work to engage black men on these questions around the economy, on you know, things beyond kind of you know, policing and criminal justice. Those things are important as well, but how do we actually you know again, raise wages, you know,
improve work and bill wealth for black men. Those are big concerns and so there have been efforts from the right to you know, sometimes confuse but sometimes persuade black men, and so we got to acknowledge that and recognize that and go out there and work hard and earn their vote.
This is where we start our conversation with the aforementioned Cliffield, President US Public Affairs at ipsoc's with us in studio here. Great to see at the table as always, welcome back, Great to be here. You're out with new numbers over the weekend that we're going to spend some time on here in your work with ABC News. That really helped
to drive the conversation. But just broadly speaking, I don't know if it's seasonal depression, if people are feeling weird about what's going on in this country, but everyone woke up with a different idea today. There seemed to be a new feeling. I don't know if it's the fact that this race is tightening, but I keep hearing from people off the record, Democrats and Republicans that Donald Trump is taking the upper hand in this race. What's happening. What's the backdrop for this feeling?
There's a new normal. And what we can say is that whether it's at the national level or at the state level, there has been a narrowing, ever so slightly. A point here, that's half a point there. That's all takes, right, But there is a concernable and real trend towards Donald Trump, and ultimately I would make the argument that he right now is winning the framing war over the economy. It's the economy, the economy and the economy, or more specifically inflation.
And if you go through and look at those ads in the Swing States, they really make the connection between the Biden administration and high inflation, the Biden administration and Kamala they're very, very effective right now.
So when we talk about the constituencies that Kamala Harris is chasing young black men and suburban women, what you just said fulfills both of those prophecies for Donald Trump, right that's the why. It's the economy.
Yeah, it's it's inflation. And I call them here often Biden's inflation orphans. Kamal was able to bring them back into the fold when she stepped in her framing of the the The opportunity economy has been effective, but not as effective as effective as the inflation message. On the Trump side, Black Americans, Hispanic Americans, younger Americans, these are the key constituencies that Donald Trump right now is winning over.
Interesting to think about it this way, because Donald Trump answers every question, as we just said, with the border, and that's what he was talking about largely yesterday. Why not just continue to hammer the economy as your single issue.
Well, Donald Trump as a spokesman is a little bit all over the place. Yeah, he's not so focused. The border issues are really important, especially for his base. They mobilize the Republican base. But if you look at those ads that are playing out in the key swing states, they're all about the economy.
They're all about inflation.
So let's take a look at what you learned. This is ipso's ABC News among likely voters. We should point out a national poll fifty to forty eight percent. Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump. In September, she led that same poll by five percent. Now for a lot of people, that sounds like nothing. You're talking about two or three points. But in erase this close everything.
Isn't it?
Yeah?
There obviously is a margin veria.
We have a little bit of a sample bounds here there, but definitely things have tightened. This will be a game of inches. Indeed, only a few hundred thousand votes will matter in those key swing states, and this poll should be concerning for the Harris camp. Obviously things can change looking forward, but this narrowing definitely benefits Trump in his campaign.
You learned as well, fifty six percent of Americans now favorite deporting all undocumented immigrants. That is up twenty points from the first time Donald Trump ran eight years ago. Maybe he is them choosing the right issue to speak to off the cuff.
Yeah, immigration deportation, unbridled migration, migrants over the border resonate a cross party lines, especially in swing states, a swing state like Arizona specifically. It's even an issue that Latinos are divided on. They have certain sort of reservation about the border policy and border policies with the Biden administration. So yeah, it's an issue that resonates at this point. Maybe it carves off half a point here, a quarter point there, but there is a method to his madness.
Does history tell us anything about the final weeks of a campaign, the closing three weeks that we're in now, as to whether you would see a break in the numbers from here or is this pretty much what these polls are going to look like on the eve of the election.
It always matters, I think, especially an electoral scenario like this one, which is so close up until election day. Those critical messages can potentially carve off some voters here or there that can ultimately push the campaign across the finish line.
It will matter up to election day.
So could you expect real movement?
Though?
I guess this is my question. You're talking about a quarter of a point here. It sounds like this is going to be a two point race until we find out who want.
Yeah, we're not going to see jumps like five points, but we might see trends one way or the other. Ever so slight, ever so soft, but still discernible.
Looks like Kamala Harris has agreed to an interview with Fox News, which is really interesting seeing her media exposure just last week alone. Right, it was Howard Stern, Stephen Colbert. We had the sixty minute shot and then the view, most of it pretty friendly interviewers as opposed to a hard hitting sort of sit down being challenged by a journalist. None would be more than that, I suspect than Fox News to any of these late decisions. When it comes
to messaging advertising also promised to move numbers. Or is this something that's fun for me and you to talk about.
Yeah.
I think interviews with candidates are important, obviously, but what really matters at the end of the day are those messages in a loco in the Swing States via advertising via word of mouth. Obviously, if she messes up, that's not good for her. Probably there's more downside for her than upside on Fox. But ultimately it's going to be the entire opera of communications that matters.
This is going to be Wednesday, six p m. Eastern Time. So here you have our two candidate interviews, Donald Trump right here on Bloomberg tomorrow at noon, Kamala Harris, Fox News Wednesday at six Brett behar is going to do the interview. What does that tell you though about the type of voters she's aiming at when you when you cross over to do a Fox News interview, She's not looking to turn Republicans into Democratic voters as she is it for the nicky Haley supporters who are looking.
For a home.
No, I think she's looking for those inflation orphans. They're on there on the other side as well. They're working class and and and and lower middle class individuals that might watch Fox for its news value. Specifically, remember younger Americans, Hispanic Americans, Black Americans, all of which have have have basically deviated from the fold. They're trying to bring them back in.
Does a holster like you sit around thinking about October surprises or have we had one or two or three already? Is there a moment that moves this race one way or the other that you're waiting for that you can't predict.
Yeah, well we've had a lot of moments we have, and that shifted things to shifted.
There on the first day of October.
Yeah, it really depend on the event, if there's an event, and what's the qualitative nature of the event, how big and existential is it actually, But ultimately we're most worried about whether our polls are right, we have the level right, because it's oh so close that a point off in one direction or the other could really define the deck.
Do you secretly hope that it's not that close for the sake of the country, that we have a clear winner after November?
Well, to be quite frank, as a polster, I ciccretly hope that it is that close.
Because our polling is showing us that close.
All news is local apparently, but even the candidates themselves are saying it now, let's hope for a blowout. So we aren't doing us for a month after election day.
Yeah, we have the day after issue to what I said, will the American population except.
The l on that extent to which Americans are prepared to wait?
Yeah?
Well, first and foremost, we know that super majority of Americans.
Say they will accept the results.
Republicans are a little bit more sort of wishy washy because they think the result probably won't be fair, more likely not to be fair.
But time really matters. The longer it.
Takes to count and get it together, so the less likely people are to believe the results.
Which is troubling because it took us till Saturday last time. We could do it again. Cliff Young with us live in Washington from IPSOS. This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
So if if you haven't gathered yet, the race is tied, it's within the margin. And everyone woke up this morning thinking that things had shifted enough that they might look at things differently. Let's check out the actual numbers here with a big pile of polling data over the weekend. We talked to Cliff Young from IPSOS a little while ago. If so's ABC News, Harris leading Trump among likely voters
nationally by two points fifty forty eight. NBC had to pull out Harris and Trump tied among registered voters a different metric, forty eight to forty eight. Yeah, a real tie. Last month, Harris was up by five in each of those polls. Okay, CBS News, you go, Harris leads Trump nationally likely voters. Here we go again, fifty one forty eight and a one point tightening over the last month.
And we've seen Donald Trump more specifically, chip away at Kamala Harris's margins and overall Democratic Party margins among black voters and among the voters. So that's the baseline as we wait to spend some time with Rick Davis and Genie Shanzo Kamala Harris coming out over the weekend with three weeks to go, not so much on an issue, but questions about Donald Trump. Framing him is dangerous and while we're at it, unhealthy. Here's Kamala Harris from the stump.
He refuses to release his medical records.
I've done it.
Every other presidential camp, every other presidential candidate in modern era has done it.
Here's the thing.
It makes you wonder. It makes you wonder. Why does his staff want him to hide away?
One must question? One must question.
Are they afraid that people will see that he.
Is too weak and unstable.
To leave?
Okay, crowd loved it, but does this new line of attack resonate around the country? Rick Davis and Genie Shanzo join us right now our signature panel on the Monday edition. She is, of course, Bloomberg Politics contributor and political science professor at Iona University. Rick Davis partner at Stone Court Capital. Great to see you both here. Genie. I'm pretty sure Donald Trump is not going to be putting his medical records out there. Aside from the letter that says he's
like the healthiest man in the universe. My question is, does anyone care. Does that not sound like a race from a few cycles ago? Does anyone care about medical records, tax returns, etc? As long as Donald Trump is who we're talking about, You know, I do.
Think people care to this extent. He is the oldest.
Person running in history, and of course we don't know what his health is, and that's an enormous risk for all of us. I am a strong proponent by the way of releasing both health antax returns. Although I agree with you it's not going to happen, but I do think voters need to be reminded. I'm glad she's out there asking these kinds of questions. I think it is where she should be. But I don't think it is enough to stop there, because it's certainly not the most important issue on people's minds.
Well Speaker Johnson had an answer to this challenge from Kamala Harris. He hit the Sunday Show circuit to make it clear that Donald Trump is different than the rest of us.
Should Donald Trump release all of his metal record.
He has, he issued the records of his physicians. Kamala Harris issued her medical records as a diversion because she's desperate, because she's sinking in the polls. Donald Trump's health is on display. Everyone in America can see it. The man works NonStop, he never quits. He probably sleeps four hours a night. He doesn't require as much sleep as the average person. He's an unusual figure.
Well, Genie, what do you think our medical records are diverse?
You know, I don't think it is a diversion. I do think the issue of age plays Look at it played big for Joe Biden. It got him out of the race. But again, I don't think it's the only issue on voter's mind. So it is a question she should ask. It is a question that excites a democratic rally crowd. But this is all about getting to those undecided voters, people who may or may not vote, And for those folks, it is all about the economy. And so you know Bloomberg's forte that's where she's got to be.
What is she going to do for them different than what has happened in that regard under the Biden administration because they aren't quite happy with that. So again that's where I think the closing message should be.
Okay, I appreciate that, Genie Rick, I'd love for you to take a swing at this, because in the time that you were running presidential campaigns, you wouldn't dare say no to a challenge like that, right, this was part of the process. But at your tax returns, put out your medical records. Are we just beyond that now?
Yeah? I mean in two thousand, when John McCain first ran, we literally got eight hundred pages of medical records from his entire career in the Militarians and subsequent to that and put him out for public view. Things have changed a lot, but not that much. I mean, one of the things that Trump campaign has to be very aware of is there are people who haven't made up their mind on him. It's a very personal decision to pick a president. It is not like picking a senator or
a governor. You know, American voters like to feel like they're part of that equation, that they've kicked the tires, that they know the person. And so I do think there could be potential value in the Harris campaign going after Donald Trump. You know, his capacity to lead, his capacity to function as president because of his age and his health. And I think that even Johnson's comments raise a specter like the guy's only getting you know, four hours of sleep at night. I'm sorry, I want my
president to get eight hours to sleep at night. I don't think that's such a good thing. And so and then when you see him on the stump, which is why, you know, the Harris campaign says, watch his rallies, he's not very functional on the stump. So the reality is, I do think this is a line that she's going to pursue because she saw it work very effectively against her boss, President Biden, and she wants employ some of
that concern that voters might have. And I think the punch line at the end is, and do you really want, you know, jd Vance as your president? Because of the infirmity that exists, The potential exists for Donald Trump.
But of course people have never looked at him that way, not the way they looked at Joe Biden. Genius Kamala Harris going to have to work overtime to make Donald Trump look older than he appears on the stump because the you know, the stem Winders, the Hannibal Electers, the sharks and electric votes and all that stuff don't seem to be moving anybody in that direction.
Yeah, I mean, he comes across in a much different way than Joe Biden. But if you actually listen to him, if you pay attention, which is why they keep telling everybody, go watch the rallies, you can see that he has aged as we all have since twenty sixteen. And he is the oldest person to run myself, and and you know he's the oldest person to run.
He would be very.
Old if he got into office by way of presidential old and this is something Americans told us very clearly they're not comfortable with. So I do think it is something she needs to talk about and keep talking about.
But for those undecided.
Voters, it's got to be more about them than Donald Trump. And this is where I think she's got some work to do. What are they going to risk if they choose Donald Trump? Are they going to risk their healthcare, their freedoms, their jobs, the economy, are they going to get more taxes? You know, all of those things. She's got to talk to those undecided voters in a way that matters to them, not in a way that is
solely about Trump's age. Although again I think it's an important line of attack, but it can't be the only one.
In that event in North Carolina where Kamala Harris was talking where we just showed that bit of video and heard that sound from They will begin early voting on Thursday. We spoke earlier this hour with Mike Shephard about the confusion and the misinformation surrounding Hurricane Helene that has really hampered some efforts in the western part of the state. But knowing that this is happening now, Kamala Harris said, the election is here. I keep reminding everybody out we're
twenty two days out, but the election is here. To what extent do you recalibrate your messaging knowing that people are voting while you're talking.
Look, I mean it's typical in every election, But I would say we are now into the third week before the election, and this is closing arguments. The third week is different than the fourth week, and so it's a sprint now to election day. And as you describe North Carolina voters are voting today, as are a dozen other states, and so you're in the election, and so if these aren't the closing arguments, then then you're not going to
be making any at this stage. And I do think you know what she's doing in North Carolina is drawing attention to a population that has been distracted by their own concerns and troubles due to the hurricane, and trying to get them to reset into the focus of this election. And notice the location she is going to be hitting suburban and urban locations on the coast, staying away from the affected areas and trying to drive up the vote.
They are knowing that it could be difficult out in western North Carolina to actually you know, vote in any way by being in person or by mail. So she's got to go where she can pick up the votes the best, the easiest way, and that's going to be in those urban and coastal communities.
As we mentioned today, it's on the Erie, Pennsylvania. We'll be making a stop at a small business to talk with black men, and we'll hold a rally tonight heading for Detroit. Later. Trump is in Oaks, Pennsylvania, So we really are zeroing in on these targeted states here, Genie, We're going to talk next hour about the constituencies that Kamala Harris is working overtime to appeal to. As I just mentioned, young black men, and it's going to be also young Latino men.
As well, showing a real deficit in the polls to where she was just a month ago. But with what I just heard from Rick Davis, we've got three weeks to go here. This is closing argument time. Is there a time left to cater your message to specific demographics at this point.
She has to.
You know, what we're seeing is when you look at black voters, and we saw this in the IPSOS poll, they are back in her corner in a way they weren't with Joe Biden before he dropped out of the race. But she is still not up to the point where Joe Biden was the ninety percent he got in twenty twenty. And that's where she needs to be. You know, you could we could talk a lot about how she should be on closing arguments now, but the reality is she needs to do both. She needs to reach those targeted
voters and she needs to do closing arguments. She just doesn't have the luxury of sitting back. She's got to be aggressive as she goes forward, and quite frankly, she's got to take a something of a page from Donald Trump's book, and she's got to be aggressive, and she's got to scare people straight, scare them in her mind into seeing what the reality of their lives in a Trump two point zero might be and why they should not risk it. That's what she's going to have to do.
And we heard, you know, Barack Obama and the Stump trying to make the case. He got some pushback on that. But one of the big questions he asked as it pertains to North Carolina, which is a question she would ask, when did it become okay?
When did it become okay to lie to people in need?
Those are the questions that she needs to ask because that should get people angry, hopefully on her part, to go out and vote for her.
Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino are signature panel here on the Monday edition of Balance of Powers.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo car Play and then roun Auto with the Bloomberg Business app listener on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
I'm Joel Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington as we keep our eyes on the campaign trail. Of course, whenever this does culminate it's going to be a big deal for the presidential race, Kaylee. In the meantime, we are walking through a new pile of polling data really over the weekend, and new messaging from both campaigns. Kamala Harris calling for Donald Trump's medical records, suggesting that he's dangerous and apparently unhealthy, and Donald Trump pretty interesting talking about
the enemy within. Did you see these remarks over the weekend.
I did on Fox Business with Maria Barbiromo, talking about the kind of activity we could see around this election when everyone, of course living with the memory of January sixth, twenty twenty one, including our next guest. Of course, it was interesting to hear him characterize the threat not necessarily coming from his own supporters, but those who may be in opposition to him.
Yeah, this was from Fox over the weekend.
Let's listen.
I think the bigger problem with the people from within. We have some very bad people. We have some sick people, radical left lunatics, and I think they're the and it should be very easily handled by if necessary, by national God or if really necessary, by the military.
We have two enemies.
We have the outside enemy and then we have the enemy from within and the enemy from within, in my opinion, is more dangers in China, Russia and all these countries, because if you have a smart president, he can handle them pretty easily.
Okay, that's where we start our conversation with Denver Riggleman, the former Republican congressman from Virginia former Air Force intelligence is with us here, remembering as well, he's founder of RIG Security also helps to advise the January sixth Committee. Denver, welcome back. It's been a while. We have two enemies. How do you see it?
Well, you know, it's so funny. I think every accusation is a confession when it comes to Donald Trump. And since I do know a little bit about January sixth, and thank you not on the Select Committee. When he's talking about this dehumanization on the other side and talking about you know, the evil and the enemy within and the election and things like that, he really is staging again. And it's not really that subtle anymore, this call for violence among his individuals.
I mean, it's that simple.
I don't think I think people are afraid to address what he's really saying. On so many levels, you're not going to hear Kamala Harris saying this or till walls, you will hear crazy coming from Donald Trump and from Jade Vance. And I think what you're seeing there is him actually reaching out the constituency again, just like with the Proud Boys, just like with the oath Keepers, just like with these individuals. When he said, you know, stand back and stand by. This is the same kind of
messaging that he likes to do. And surely not that subtle anymore.
Well, if it's not that subtle, as you see it, Denver, it does raise the question of whether the electorate actually takes him at his word when he says those things. What would you say to people who suggest Donald Trump is just not being serious, it's all just bluster.
First of all, you know a great question. Those people are lying. I mean, of course they tick him as worthy, wouldn't be voting for him. And it's that simple too. And you know, here's the reason you no, I'm part
of Republicans for Harrison. There's a reason that we're reaching out to specific constituencies is because we are going against other constituencies, you know, and you know some of those constituencies are like flat earthers, you know, those who believe that J six, you know, the election was stolen, those who believe that there's a that FEMA, you know, is there's actually conspiracy theories about FEMA around Hurricane Helene or
Hurricane Milton, those idiots, right, and you're talking about too. You know, I don't know if you guys sawidated Tim Wallace emails where you know, they're accusing of the most vile things with made up emails that's coming out today, and I think that's what you're seeing. You have these disinformation constituencies and these radicalized constituencies, and then you have other people trying to reach out to a more sane and rational portion of the population.
It's interesting what happens when people lose trust in the arbiters of truth, right, whether it's the media, whether it's the administration, the government as a whole here Denvers. So it's it's difficult to get a sense of where we're going with all this. There are reports the Washington Posts that our militias are moving around western North Carolina trying to block FEMA from getting to certain places following Hurricane Helene. So it's hard to tell where the miss information ends.
But you know what your Republicans say, when it comes to Donald Trump, you can talk to me all day long. You remember the outrage following the Access Hollywood tape, but we moved on and the Donald Trump who was in the White House brought a good economy and no new wars. How do you respond to that?
Oh goodness, you know, that's that's pretty interesting. You know they talked about the Access Hollywood tape and that he just talks, right, He just talks a game, but he doesn't really mean it. Well, I think Eugene Carroll would have Yeah, I think she would have an issue with that. He did exactly what he said he was going to do because he was found liable for sexual abuse and he's a felon. When you talk about January sixth, and
you know, be there, it's going to be wild. Look at what he did to actually aggravate those type of conspiracy theories and those radicalizing types of memes that he put out there. And you just talked about FEMA, right armed groups or militias. He was part of fanning the flame there. Donald Trump is a conspiracy theorist or he likes to radicalize people when he knows it's untrue and both of those options are just awful for somebody who
wants to be potused. So you know, again it comes down to I think this is about going against that type of disinformation on a level we have never seen. Social media is allowed it, but I just don't think Democrats, independence, and even the center right realize how strong the far right information ecosystem is.
So with all that said, Denver, we're now just three weeks out from election day. What are you potentially looking for or bracing for on that day and in the days that could follow, Knowing it maybe uncertain for some time who actually won the election and whether or not they're going to accept those results.
Listen that here's my greatest hope. I mean, and I'm glad you're asking me such easy questions today. Thanks guys. Holy crap, well just so easy.
Just a balk of the park today.
Here's my hope.
I hope that that anybody in the left, center or center, you know, independence, when this election is called one way or the other, you know, they follow the norms of the United States Constitution and we allow for the peaceful transfer of power. The issue that you're going to have if Donald Trump wins or Donald Trump loses, is you're going to have a far right activated, I think type of violence centers. But it's not going to be at
the capitol. What my biggest worry is counting centers. It's election workers, it's state capitals, it's specific individuals now right, it's actually going towards the very infrastructure of how the electoral votes are funneled upwards towards Congress. Those are the things that I worry about. Is this local, state and county level efforts that are going on in these areas, and these rises of militia movements, this rise of sort
of this fantasy belief system that's driving people. You know, I was just looking at the Rod of Iron ministries with Mike Flynn, you know, and they have the Babylon Fire and they're screaming fight, fight, fight, And that's all under Sean Moon, the son of Shung Moon, who thinks the AR fifteen is an instrument of God. That's the issue that we have right now, is that violence is in the air. It's being perpetuated. Just at the start of this talking about Donald Trump's common about the election,
He's not being subtle and he means it. And I think when we look at what he said in the past and what he's been convicted of as a felon and as being liable for sexual abuse, I think we see that he means what he says.
So with that said, though, I just want to get a little more specific with your knowledge of January sixth, having advised the committee on this, are you of the mind then that we could see violence break out in state capitals around the country as opposed to here in Washington, And why would it be different this time?
I think the issue that you're going to have in state capitals and when you're talking about specific counting centers, is that you have a very narrow pathway to victory for both candidate. You're talking about only a handful of states, and you're talking about counties within those states.
And if you don't think that those.
Who are looking at the numbers, at the data, at the polls, at the statistics, they're looking at the voter registrations and the early voting in those areas, if they're not concentrating on those areas with legal challenges immediately, or an army of lawyers looking at every single aspect of this, I think people's heads are in the sand. If they don't believe that. And I think when you talk about what's different this time is there's been a massive learning
curve from January sixth to today. Now you're talking about, you know, you know, really a coordinated effort, but there was just enough dumb people right where that wasn't going to go off. But I think this time, I think they've learned that fighting from the inside is much more
effective from fighting from the outside. And that's why you saw all these electoral type of issues going on, where you're seeing Moms for Liberty and these other groups trying to put candidates in these positions where they can actually affect the voting in those local areas. And I think that's what we need to worry about, is they've really really have a more specific plan this time going forward.
Denver, we just have a minute left. But Joe and I have been talking about how there seems to be a different feeling this morning about the race and the likelihood that Donald Trump could win. Do you share that feeling?
I do.
I mean, I think I think the disinformation program has been very effective. I think I think this election was all always going to be close, and I think there has to come a time where you have to push on a level with reality and sanity, but you really have to get away from compassionate confrontation to just telling the truth about how awful and evil some of the things that are being set out there on the disinformation side.
I do feel a switch. It's a little eerie, but that's why we're fighting, and that's why I think that we need to lean forward and do the best that we can to make sure sanity and reality win.
All Right. Former Republican Congressman Denver Riggleman, thank you so much for joining us here on Bloomberg TV and radio platform.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Rodoto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Agar Shamali joins us right now for more on the Middle East. Hagar, it's great to have you back here, of course, former director for Syria and left at the National Security Council. Now Greenwich Media strategies we've been talking are about this new THAD missile defense system that the US has greenlit for use in Israel. It's going to bring about one hundred American troops along with it. They're needed to operate the system here and maybe train Israeli's
while they're at it. At this phase, what does it tell you the motivation behind this deployment as a deterrent or an acknowledgment that Israel is about to go big.
Well, perhaps a little bit of both, but it's not totally unprecedented to move this kind of missile defense system to Israel. The US moved the THAD missile defense system to Israel after the October seven attack last year, and so it is something that is meant to beef up that that security to definitely send a message across to all or across the Middle East that the US is going to defend Israel, is going to stand and support Israel,
you know, in case of any kind of attack. But it certainly indicates that there is they are expecting.
Something and they want to be there just in case.
The US also has said that they know that Israel has narrowed down its targets in Iran in response to Iran's assault, so they clearly have an idea of what generally what of what Israel's considering. We know that Israel hasn't come to a definitive agreement yet or decision as to exactly what it's targeting in Iran. It does seem as days go by that it's going it's less and less likely to be the nuclear facilities.
But it's still possible.
It could always be oil fields, which obviously is going to lead to that uncertainty in the markets that you mentioned. But Israel also is aware of You know that targeting oil fields not only has an economic consequence, but an environmental one as well, And so I, in my opinion, I think we're looking more at Iran's military infrastructure, their weapons depots and things of this kind. Possibly certain leadership, but this is this is where I see things headed in general.
But again, Prime Minister Natiyah.
Who is feeling very bold, has been taking many risks in many gambles, and that is yet enough reason why the US likely is deploying that missile defense system, both to defend and as a deterrent, but also because they might expect some kind of response.
Well, Hagar, as you describe, Netanyahu was feeling bold right now. He also his government has been kind of taking their time with this. We've been left on edge waiting for that response for some time now. The longer it takes, is it likelier that a cooler head prevails, if you will, or just that it is a very specific, targeted kind of response. I just wonder how the timeline factors in here.
The timing is kind of part of the game, if you will. And I'm not trying to sound trite in this or make light of it, but the Iranians were very similar as well. I mean, and then they said that back back, this was a few months ago when they had their response. I'm sorry when when Ismael Hainia was assassinated in Iran, Iran said we're going to respond.
And the waiting is part of the game.
Is part of the effort to make everybody on unease and and to make them feel nervous and anxious and to await the suspense is.
Part of it, and so Israel in this part. It could be part of the game for Israel.
But I think also the Israeli government is thinking, you know, it's taking their time with their decision and trying to be smart about it and responsible about it, and well responsible, but I mean responsible for what they feel is there is what achieves their national security objectives, even if the US disagrees with that, and the Israeli government who the war has shifted and so they have a different playing ground here to play with, and that's that they are
much more heavily engaged in Lebanon than we all anticipated a month ago only, and so they have to be aware of that that they're more heavily engaged in Lebanon. They've promised for further escalation in Lebanon, they've pursued a ground invasion, which calls for a whole different level of commitment.
Gaza is still ongoing.
Every time they withdraw from parts of Gaza, Hamas pops back up. Hamas is significantly diminished, but again they are still popping up in these areas, so you still see them engaged there, and so I believe they're really taking their time, that they do care about the US perspective
and guidance. But again, and I've said this before, as you know, if there's a disagreement and we disagree all the time, the Israeli government, Natanyahu administration is certainly going to do what it feels as best for its survival.
But I don't believe that they.
Want to launch a full a full scale regional war. One could argue we're still in that at the moment, but a direct engagement with Iran.
With that said, Hagar, how does Benjamin Netanyaho view the next three weeks in American politics, with the inflection point being our election on November fifth, Well, I.
Want to I want to start off by saying that I believe the Bide administration has been very supportive of the Israeli government. And that said, I believe that nata Yah who doesn't feel that way or doesn't feel enough love because Natanya who has said that before and he and has been quite public about that. And that said, from his point of view, from the Israeli government point of view, Netta Ya, who is waiting with Beta breath to see what happens, because it will have an effect.
Especially if you're.
Talking about Trump versus Harris administration, there are going to be significant differences in their support of Israel.
Both are going to support Israel. Both are going to be committed to Israel's defense.
Israel's a non NATO ally of the United States and the US, through our laws, have pledged to maintain Israel's qualitative military edge, which means therefore it's superiority over anything
military in the region. But that said, I think a Harris administration is going to try and twist Israel's arm more, is going to play more with the idea of conditioning AID, is going to be more loud and have a stronger tone about civilians being killed, whereas the Trump administration, I think, is going to say, you know, I'll give you what you need to wrap this up, but wrap it up. And that is what Trump has said over and over again. So Natiyau is watching very carefully. I don't think that's
holding him back. I don't think that's what is contributing to this time that you're seeing this delay. But that said, he is watching very closely. He's trying to play both sides very closely. He knows that he's going to have to maintain f and ships on both sides depending who wins. And as you mentioned earlier, no one has been able to predict this. Don't ask me, I don't want to predict it because none of us.
Know, Hagar.
In our final moment with you here, we also learned over the weekend that Hesbela drones did kill four Israeli soldiers despite all of Israel's efforts to take out Hesbela capability, hence the incursions into southern Lebanon, which we're now more than a thousand people have died. What does this reveal about the capacity that Hesbela still has remaining despite all of Israel's efforts.
Yeah, this is an interesting one.
So on one hand, Habela has been weakened much more than any of us could have expected this far in by the way, I believe even the Israeli government didn't expect Habella to be weakened the way it was if they looked at this six months ago, for example. And I can tell you I handled Hisbela when I worked in counter terres financing.
It was in my portfolio in the US government. Since the two thousand and.
Six war, we have been waiting for the showdown between Hasbela and Israelan has watched Habella arm itself so heavily in the meantime, and they still have more in their arsenal. They have significant precision missiles that when I was at the White House, Syria was sending to them called scud missiles,
and so we know that Habela has this capability. So on one hand, they've significantly diminished their capabilities and thrown their operation into array because of how many leaders they've killed and how many how they've penetrated their communication systems.
This really does a lot to undermine a terrorist group's operations.
And apparently what I've read is that they've targeted at least half of their arsenal so far. That said, you still have on thousands, tens of thousands, likely of fighters Haasbela fighters, and a huge arsenal to begin with. So even if you've cut off half, you still have a big chunk remaining. So but I believe the Israeli government is aware of that. I mean, they know, they know
what they're they're asking for by going in. They know what it means to escalate with Isabella, that it may go in phases, and right now israel I think the Israeli government is definitely the stronger one coming out of this blate. It's going to be all right, it comes to his mode.
Hugar Shamali. Always great to have you. Thank you for joining us here. On balance of Power. In a programming note noontime tomorrow an exclusive interview between former President Donald Trump and Bloomberg Editor in chief John Mickelthwaite. You can find that right here on Bloomberg TV and radio.
Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.