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Welcome to the Wednesday edition. Even though I'm pretty sure I said yesterday was Wednesday, that's kind of where we are. It's just a big blur right now. Wednesday edition of Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube. Search Bloomberg Business News Live because you'll actually see Brad Howard with us in studio as we save a seat for you every day here in Washington following
the candidates after quite a night on the trail. How outraged are you today, I guess is the question, because there seems to be a lot of anger around this morning, after this day, after Kamala Harris delivered the big speech from the ellipse, Joe Biden sitting about a thousand feet behind her, saying something that did.
Not go over very well with Republicans.
If you haven't heard about the whole garbage episode yet, let's walk you through it. Here's the president talking last night and.
Just the other day, I speaker at his rally called Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage. The only garbage I see floating down there as his supporters.
Okay, so this becomes a story, apparently of the almighty apostrophe. The White House released a transcript showing that mister Biden was saying his supporter's apostrophe possessive demonization, meaning that this comedian who was at Madison Square guard he was talking about with the Puerto Rico floating island of garbage reference, was the demonization that he was referring to.
Trump Camp doesn't buy it.
This thing is exploded to the point where Joe Biden had to come out with a clarifying statement. And now an interesting moment for Kamala Harris. Everybody woke up this morning asking will she separate herself from the president. Here's reaction from the Vice President on her way out of town earlier today.
First of all, he clarified his comments, but let me be claria. I strongly disagree with any coriticism of people.
Based on who they vote for.
Is you've heard in my speech last.
Night, and continuously throughout my career. I believe that the work.
That I do is about representing all the people, whether they support me or not. And as president of Deniaia says, I will be a president for all Americans, whether you vote from me or not.
So is that that a We're going to spend as much time talking about this as we did the rhetoric at Madison Square Garden? Is there an equivalency hashtag deplorables? Brad is with us right now, made his way over from Corkford Street Group. It's good to see you, sir, Thanks for coming back. You remember deplorables? That was a moment that Hillary Clinton, I'm sure regrets. But it does
seem that we're speak speak to the outrage. It seems that we're in a world where both parties are just been waiting around all day waiting for something like this to happen so they can kick out fundraising emails and start freaking out about the rhetoric here.
Where are you with what Joe Biden's.
So, you're suggesting people feign offense around election to raise money gave no. I mean, look, there's a lot of differences here between that and the basket of deplorables. Comment first being, he is not the candidate. We you know, we made a change any months ago for that. We don't know if you heard. So he's not the candidate anymore. She is, and you know, and I think it gives
her an opportunity to want she's consistently said. If you remember, there's an interview where Fox News tried to get her to insult Trump's base and voters, and she said, I'm not going to do that. Brett was with Brett Bear and she's, no, I'm not going to call the American people a name.
And today she said the exact same thing, even after.
Her even after Joe Biden did it our Democratic And so that right there shows me that she's willing to stand up for what she believes, and even if it's against her own party.
That's a pretty powerful piece of character to get to show.
You know, days before an election.
Did she just remove herself from Joe Biden? Is this why Joe Biden wasn't invited last night?
Well, I mean I think Joe Biden he was there last night, but no, obviously not the rally.
But this election is about her and her vision.
I mean in a few days gonna, We're gonna, We're gonna watch Joe Biden fly off in a helicopter. And I think he was one of our greatest presidents, particularly in terms of defending democracy here at home and abroad. I think he'll go down in the record books for that work he did. That's so pivotal to protecting our democracy. But this election is about her, her vision for the future and what she's gonna do for the American people.
When she talks about a new way forward, it's actually kind of a genius slogan, I think, because when you talk about new way versus old way, who's the old way? Donald Trump, Joe Biden? Where are we're going? Not backward forward? So a new Way forward separates her from Trump and Biden interesting and presents a contrast which I think is amazing.
Yeah, we talked last evening on the late edition of Balance of Power about what was said at Madison Square Garden, the outrage and some of the lasting We really can't quantify impact that this might have on young Latino voters, on Puerto Rican voters who both campaigns are struggling to reach. Now, is there an equivalency here?
No, not at all because two things. Number one, take it decide that we just it's not appropriate freebody to refer to anybody as trash or garbage. Number Two, I think the what the what President Biden did say about President Trump's supporters, They are already fired up. They are not going to get fired up anymore. I don't know if there's a Trump supporter that isn't going to come hell or high water and go vote. The Puerto Rican
community is ideologically, you're incohesive like they are. They range the political spectrum. They probably lean more Democratic once they come over to the States on the island of Puerto Rico, which you know, you know, it's an American territories. The people that were born there are American citizens, but the parties are differentiated around the question of statehood. It's not
like the parties are differentiated here. When they come over here, they lean demmer, but they're still gettable, they're still persuadable, and in key districts, including in the Pennsylvania, there's a huge swath of them. So Donald Trump had the Donald Trump probably hurt himself with a key constituency of swing voters. I don't know that Joe Biden's comment last night offended, I mean may have offended, but it's not going to change any persuadable voters' minds in this up.
Well, anyone who would associate themselves, I think with Donald Trump insulted by that remark, would never vote for Joe Biden anyway.
Right, So not a needle mover.
And again it wasn't the candidate. I Kamala has said that one understood, very different conversation understood.
So I like talking with you because you're a practitioner. There are partisans and there are practitioners, and you make no qualms about being a Democrat. We know where you're coming from. But you've been a chief of staff, You've helped to run campaigns, and that's why I like to get in your head a little bit here about this moment that we're in. Polls are tied, everybody's doing gut check right now, nobody really knows what they're talking about.
How are you looking at the closing stages of this with the information that we have.
So the hardest part about running a campaign, and I've run several, is developing the model. What you're trying to do every time you do a poll you're running it through a model. What you're trying to predict with the model is what is the electric going to look like on election day? And then you input the results you got from your polling and spits out a formula, and that's where we get So the results you see in polling are calculated through a formula, they're not actually.
The actual big curve on this correct.
The problem is that modeling is based on data, and we don't have any data to suggest how a lot of voters in this election are going to vote. For the first time in history, you're going to see partisan Republicans vote for a Democrat for president, Liz Cheney, Mett Romney. You're going to see a bunch of people that have never voted in their lives come out and vote for Donald Trump.
You can't measure that.
You can't there's no way. There's no way to measure, So you're kind of basing it on gut experience a
little bit. I suspect that if you're persuadable right now nine to ten, you're gonna fall Kamala's way, because if you don't have an opinion on Donald Trump by now, you don't like him by now, you're never gonna yeah, and so, but I do think he's got the big problem of taking these what we call low propensity voters who are scattered across America, particularly in rural area, and you've got to get them to vote for the very
first time. They got to figure out how to register, where to show up, but ida bring how to do it, Yes, and when there's no muscle memory, that's a hard task. So they're both an equally difficult task here. I just don't know what is going to say. My gut is she will win because she has invested so much money in gootv so she not only is going to grow her reach into persuadables, she's also going to grow her base, so she can go both directions. He can only grow his base.
Okay, so that's your gut here to what extent is early voting factoring in to the way you're looking at this, d's versus ours pulling ballots?
Or is that too noisy because there.
Are potentially ours pulling ballots voting for Kamala Harr Right.
So the assumption is that every r goes votes yes for Donald Trump. We know that's not true the selection, but you gotta understand the fastest growing party in the country is independence or non parties an affiliates depending on your state. You really have no idea how they're going to vote. You assume it's probably based on the polling fifty to fifty, but we don't know. And the other thing is the more important thing about early voting is
the micro impact. You Most campaigns have a universe of voters that they need to make sure they go vote because they know that they are going to vote for them one hundred percent. And for instance, like the in the democratic world, like pockets of older black voters, pockets of older women, or or you know, white college educated women are going to vote. So in those pockets, we want to make sure as many people in those areas turn out as possible. So from micro perspective, you're chasing
each ballot. You're calling that voter, have you voted yet, every day to get them out to vote. That's really where it's about. That's how you can drive up your you're sent you want to bank as many votes as you can by election day, Yes, because no one knows what happens on election and you never know, maybe there's a hurricane or there's a tornado or bad weather or snow, and that prevents people from voting. But if that happens, you want to make sure your your site has already banked their votes.
How likely?
How possible is it that, as we hear Trump supporters are undersampled, that there are biases in polling that misrepresent Donald Trump's base. You could also wake up and say, wow, this was five points in the other direction.
So I equate this as you know, like a I was a former chief staff to a Florida member. Yes, you know, we got in hurricanes. The models the show I can get from Miami to DC. That's where we are right now. We're weak out. We don't know where the hurricanes hitting. We don't know.
Spaghetti chart, Yes, spaghetti charge.
I've seen models that can go to an overwhelmingly Kamma of victory because we dramatically undercounted the number of Independents and Republicans are going to vote for her. And then in other areas you could possibly see New York be closer than it has ever had because he's running up the numbers so high in all of America?
Is that going to make enough difference?
I've seen more models suggest a Comma victory than his, but doesn't matter. You just need the one model to do it. This is great happen.
This is exactly the conversation that's taking place in strategy meetings in Washington. This one minute left here, Brad. There's a thought that this will also based on the last election. Maybe take till the following Saturday. Where are you on votes being counted, in races being called?
You know, I suspect that. I suspect that we will know sooner.
I think more Americans are getting more comfortable and confident in early in person voting and voting by mail. You've even seen Republicans come around to it, and that's where you're really were. A lot of people are trying to see the Republican surgeon mail voting as some kind of sign of Republican strength. I'm like, no, your candidate four years ago was calling it illegal. So they've come around,
dropped that rhetoric, and they're turning out. And so what we're looking at is how is that going to play out? I think what's going to likely to happen. We'll know the presidency soon. Yeah, maybe the West Coast House races where we come down to control of the House. We may not control the House residency like by Thursday. I predict we may know by Wednesday.
Wow, Brad Howard, this is great.
You know what that would have cost you to go to Corcoran Street Group to get that seminar. Thank you for being with us. As always, I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and then Rodoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Here in Washington, where we have an eye on the campaign trail and some news we've gotten from the highest court in the country that is shaping the way this is going to go down. Within the last twenty four hours, they've ruled that Virginia can remove voters from voter rolls who are found to be non citizens based on DMV data.
Also ruling that RFK Junior, who is no longer in the presidential race, he is back Donald Trump, will stay on the ballot in two crucial swing states, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And I was fascinated Joe by new data we got from CNN, the poll conducted by SSSRs that finds Michigan is a lead for Harris forty eight to forty three compared to Donald Trump and Wisconsin. She's leading fifty one
to forty five. And RFK Junior in those states has three percent support in Michigan magic one percent support in Wisconsin.
So he could be a factor here.
To think, it's these two states.
Somehow we've left out Pennsylvania here, but these two incredibly important blue wall states RFK Junior on the ballot, even a half percentage point could tip the scale here, remembering it was a three tenths of one percent gap in our Bloomberg News swing state poll. Fewer as close as Wisconsin. And the fact of the matter is the same can be said for the Senate race there too close to call within the margin in the most recent data that
I could find. Suffolk University with USA today at two point race between Senator Tammy Baldwin and her Republican challenger Eric Hovety, who joined us on the program here two weeks ago. It's Senator Baldwin's turn. Now the Democrat from Wisconsin, sat down on her campaign bus earlier today with Bloomberg's David Goura, who was criss crossing the country forest landing today in the swing state of Wisconsin, and he joins us right now from Green Bay.
David, what'd you learn?
We talked a lot about the economists you might expect, and I think there is a really clear distinction to be drawn between these two candidates on that issue. You mentioned the interview that you did a couple of weeks ago with Eric Hovedy, and he's a fascinating character in many ways. He is somebody who is a banker with a lot of money and spends a lot of time in California, as Tammy Baldwin is very fond of pointing out.
But he asked kind of a nuanced plan for what he might do with healthcare, and nuance plan for what he might do with taxes, and so we kind of grounded some of our conversation this morning with Senator Baldwin on the issue of taxation. She noted that he is in favor largely of extending those Trump era tax cuts. She said that she's in favor of kind of a more tailored approach, trying to help those working class and middle class voters who've been her bulwark of support for
many years, both in the House and the Senate. You know, I've been traveling with her over the course of these last couple of days. She's taking a bus around this state. We started out in the southern part of Wisconsin, made our way to Sheboygan yesterday than Green Bay today. When we were in Sheboyg and I talked to somebody about what that city is like historically, what it's like today. And we've talked an awful lot about manufacturing, and he said,
look around here. There used to be all of these great companies. Kohler of course, which makes faucets and sinks and any number of things you might find in your kitchen or your bathroom, used to have a huge footprint in that city. It's been greatly reduced. I asked her what she would say to him about the state of manufacturing in this state. Take a listen to what she had to say.
Consider myself one of the buy America champion of the United States Senate. So when we're passing big pieces of legislation, we got to make sure there's buy American rules attached to this, and I was successful in getting permanent by America rules attached to the Infrastructure Bill, to the Chips and Science Act, to the Inflation Reduction Act. That is bringing jobs back to Wisconsin right now and keeping some jobs here that might otherwise have left.
So she has a fixed those to a lot of these spending bills and it has made a difference, she told me during that interview today. But she has an opponent who is largely lock and step with former President Trump on the issue of tariffs and making promises that we could see a renaissance of manufacturing in the state, in this country where a lot of these companies would come back. That's what she's up against. The former president is going to be here tonight in Green Bay for
a big rally. As you mentioned, Kamala Harris, the Vice President is going to be in this state as well, so as you might expect, the economy front and center for Senator Baldwin for a lot of the folks that she was talking to as I was on the campaign trail with her yesterday, guys, well, yeah.
And we know former President Trump when he is in Wisconsin this evening will be alongside Brett Farv the former Packers quarterback. So once again we're seeing these campaigns leaning on the power of celebrity in these final days. David, give us a sense of also what Wisconsin is like right now in terms of early voting, how many ballots have already been cast and therefore how many minds could be influenced to vote for Baldwin or Huddy or Trump or Harris for that matter.
Well, Senator Baldin's campaign is really pushing her supporters to vote early, saying it will lessen the load on poll workers, you know, find the time to do it, it'll make
things go more smoothly on election day itself. But you bring up these kind of celebrity studied events that both of these National Party candidates are holding here, I think it's a really interesting contrast between that and yes, Senator Balden will be at the event with Kamala, Harris and Madison later today with the kind of events that she
was holding yesterday. These were pretty small event with a few dozen people volunteers who are knocking on doors doing the hard work of trying to convince largely fellow Democrats to make sure that they get off the couch leave their homes, go and vote early or on election day, and she was really giving them kind of her advice
on how to do that. Come to those doors with the reason why they're doing it, enumerate what the issues are that are important to them, and then seal the deal, as she put it, get them to commit to voting in this election. You know, you talked at the top just about how close these polls are, how thin these
margins are. She is very aware of that, talked about that a lot during the course of the speeches that I heard yesterday, and really was making the case to those volunteers that if they can secure really just a handful of people to go to the polls more, that could have a fundamental difference at the precinct level across the state.
Turn Out is everything in Wisconsin and elsewhere. David gera Bloomberg correspondent live in Wisconsin, Thank you so much. Great interview with Senator Baldwin. As we consider here what it is going to take to turn people out who may still be undecided as to whether.
They want to vote all in this cycle.
Interesting as we away here the closing messages of the campaigns to try to drive that for Kamala Harris, as we saw evidence yesterday at the Ellipse here in Washington, and part this argument is about protecting democracy in a world.
Where turnout matters. I guess you could say crowd size as an indication. Seventy five thousand people on the Ellipse. They had to get an additional permit, I guess, to allow these people, and we saw images of people in line for half a mile.
To get into this.
The question is who outside of Washington was watching and listening as Kamala Harris did address the nation from the Ellipse. And what will be very familiar if you're with us on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube. Very familiar optics, same staging, same podium, flags, same location where Donald Trump spoke in front of the White House on January sixth. Here's Kamala Harris from last night on.
Day one, If elected, Donald Trump would walk into that office with an enemy's list. When elected, I will walk in with a to do list full of priorities of what I will get done for the American people. And I will work with everyone, Democrats, Republicans and independents.
For more on this, We're joined now here in our Washington d C Studio by former Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy of Florida, who was a member of the select committee that investigated the January sixth attack on the Capitol. Congresswoman, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Thank you for being with us. You obviously have spent countless time pouring through Trump's speech at the Ellipse that he gave on that day, everything
that happened in the aftermath. To see Kamala Harris yesterday standing in that same spot with this kind of messaging, what did it make you think?
It made me think that she's continuing to run a very disciplined campaign, and that speech was meant to be both a visual and a verbal contrast to Donald Trump, you know, and it actually, just as an American, gave me hope to see a normal, more normal politician using the backdrop of the White House to deliver messages that were about unity and also about the substance of what it is that she's going to do. She did remind
people of what he called for. You know, he asked people to fight like hell when he last stood on that stage in front of that White House and to
attack the capital. He was going to go with them, but then he decided not to, And so I think in part she was doing a little bit of a persuadable with a contrast message, But she was also giving those people who are a little Trump shy because of how they feel he behaved on January sixth a reminder of why they shouldn't vote for him and continue to be a part of this broader coalition that she's trying to build.
It's getting high remarks on a well written speech, if not also a well delivered one, But there were questions about the very venue that we're describing here. Powerful optics last night, but in a tied presidential campaign in seven swing states, a lot of politicos said, why Washington, That's the last place you'd want to be seen, how about you.
I think one of the things that she has been criticized for people when you talk to focus groups, they wonder whether or not she can be presidential. The way that stage was set up with the flags in the White House, that was to provide the image of what it would look like for her to be presidential. And as you said, people have given really high marks to the way she delivered that speech and what it was She said it was her showing the American people that she is able to be presidential well.
As she was trying to show what she would be like as president. The person who is currently president, almost simultaneously, perhaps caused a bit of an issue for her campaign. Joe Biden, ad virtual call with Oto Latino, whether he intended to or not, referred to Trump supporters as garbage. How much of the progress Harris made on that stage last night, if any, was undone by that gaff.
I think that gap is the reason why so many Democrats were relieved when he chose to step aside, because it's gaffs like that that really create headlines and draw the attention away from some of the things that the Trump campaign is doing. I mean, they had a very insulting comedian come up, and they, unlike Harris, have not
stepped away from their comments. She has said very clearly that she does not disparage anybody who has different political opinions than hers, and that she plans to represent everybody, whether they worked with her or elected her or not. And you haven't seen that kind of distance created between Trump and what the comedian said about Puerto Ricans and about other minority groups.
Did you like the way Kamala Harris handled that this morning? Should she have been more forceful and distancing herself from Joe Bidener condemning the remark?
I think she was very clear where she was condemning the remark. I think on a number of issues where she has been attacked, she has been very clear in using language that shuts out any doubt of where she stands. I'll give a good example when she was speaking to Telemundo in the Latino community, she called herself a pragmatic capitalist, and the only way to blunt the socialist attacks against her is that resonate with that community is to call
to identify herself as a pragmatic capitalism. And so I think taking those messages head on as she has is the right thing to do well.
And she is six days still to make those messages resonate. But then election day will be upon us. Obviously, voting is well underway in a lot of places across the country. But what are you hearing, especially with those you worked with, looking into the events of January sixth and the efforts to overturn the results of the last election, about what is taking place even down to the local level, at polling places, what are you bracing for on election.
Day and in the aftermath.
You know, I think there's a lot of concern, obviously, because a third of the country still doesn't believe that the twenty twenty election was a free and fair outcome, and so we're up against a lot of headwinds. But I think there's been a lot of progress that has been made. The Congress passed election reform laws that would raise the threshold or did raise the threshold on the number of members that would need to contest and vote
not to certify to twenty percent. So that's a little bit better than where we were standing in twenty twenty. And then I think at the local level, people have been making efforts to ensure that the process is transparent and that they can deliver a free and fair election, as our democracy deserves.
You made reference, congresswomen to the remarks that we heard at Madison Square Garden on Sunday night, the lack of an apology that we've I guess not heard from the Trump campaign in this case. What does this mean in terms of an impact on Latino voters who were offended by this Puerto Rico garbage island line in a state like yours in Florida.
So in Florida, I'm a little concerned that the margins might be so significant. From a lot of the other groups that may not you may not see a difference, But in Pennsylvania, certainly, with four hundred thousand Puerto Ricans, you're going to see some difference. I represent in one of the communities that had the highest number of Puerto Rican in my district when I was in Congress, and they're deeply proud, people deeply offended by what was said, and it reinforces.
The sense that.
The island is an afterthought for the Trump administration, especially in the way that they handled Maria.
Well, we saw Rick Scott didn't waste any time responding.
So yeah, that's the politician in him, understanding that he has a statewide reelect and he can't afford to let any group go.
Some Democrats we've spoken with have suggested that that re elect he could actually lose. Do you believe that when you look at some of those same demographics you were just alluding to in Florida.
Well, I certainly hope that that's the case, But I also understand and that elections are more than just about selling hope. They're about having field operations and a strong ground game and infrastructure within the state. And I just while I hope that happens, I'm concerned a little bit about the state broadly.
Did you have a word for the Vice President after that speech last night?
I know she invited you to be there.
No, I didn't speak with her.
What would you have told her when she was done?
Well, that I am looking forward to a new generation of leadership in this country and that it's time that we do move past all of this, and that I certainly appreciate her drawing contrast between someone who has an enemy's list, since I think I might be on that one, and somebody who has a to do list focused on serving the American people.
It's good to see you back in Washington. Thanks us always for joining us. Former Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy from Florida with us at the table here in Washington. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines here on the fastest show in Politics. You're with us here, Kaylie, we'll have to assemble the panel next.
Yep, Brick and Laura are going to be with us today as we continue to assess these final six days of the campaign, as the candidates are criss crossing the swing states as we speak. We'll have more ahead on Bloomberg TV and radio.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppo CarPlay and then Proudoro with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Missy's Balance of Power Show, in which we've spent the last several days talking about the aftermath of the Sunday rally at Madison Square Garden, where Donald Trump and a number of other speakers were there, and of course many of their remarks made some noise in political circles and elsewhere, reverberating well through swing states like Pennsylvania that have high Puerto Rican populations, specific to, of course, the joke made by comedian Tony Hinchcliff about Puerto Rico being an island
of garbage. But if you thought the garbage references were going to end there, they did not, because then President Joe Biden, in a virtual call with Voda Latino last night, had this to say about his garbage.
And just the other day, I speaker at his rally called Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage, the only garbage I see floating down there, as his supporters.
Now, the White House has gone out of its way to try to clarify Joe Biden's remarks, suggesting that this is a matter of punctuation, that that was a possessive it's the powerful apostrophe that we were missing there. Didn't stop the Trump campaign from raising money on it. An email blast went out immediately after, saying you are not garbage.
I love you.
You are the best our nation has to offer. Kamala Harris was called to respond on her way out of town this morning, on her way to the Swing States. Once again, reporters caught up with her on the tarmac.
Here's how she framed it.
First of all, he clarified his comments, but let me be claire, I soldly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they vote for. As you've heard in my speech last night and continuously throughout my career.
I believe that the work.
That I do is about representing all the people, whether they support me or not. And as President of the niaia says I will be a president for all Americans, whether you vote from.
Me or not.
Does it move the needle in this campaign? We assemble our political panel to explore that question. Rick Davis is with US Republican strategist, Bloomberg Politics contributor and partner at Stone Court Capital, joined today by Laura Fink, Rebel Communications founder and CEO, Democratic strategist. Great to have you both with us here, Rick, what's your thought on the noise
around this whole controversy to clean up the response? Does this actually impact a voter who hasn't already made up their mind?
You know, almost by abstentia, I mean, in other words, if you're talking about cleaning up you know, your comments, or trying to do damage control around somebody else's at your event, you're not actually making the pitch to voters. This is your last chance to pitch directly to voters. You want to be talking about things they care about, not trying to play, you know, clean up with the media over some controversy that's self inflicted. And in both
these cases you know they were self inflicted. I would say advantage Harris only because you know the comments by the President aren't going to disrupt anybody voting for Harris because they were about people who've already made a decision to vote for Trump. Right, it's kind of self identified.
But the tax on Puerto Ricans at his event in Madison Square Garden will directly affect how Puerto Rican voters in places like Pennsylvania, where it just was yesterday, you know, look at his candidacy and who they're going to vote for. So it's not a moral equivalent. One has a potential voter impact and the other probably doesn't.
Well, so when we consider the actual voter the campaign impact, Laura, we were just speaking with former Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy who said this from Biden last night, Whether intended or not, this kind of gaff is why Democrats are glad he is no longer the candidate. So if that is the thought here, what role should he be playing on the next six days of this campaign, the last six days of this campaign?
If any I think we maybe muted, Laura, there we go.
Oh, I can hear we can hear you now, Okay, I was just saying that that he can stand down.
That's the role that an incumbent president should play.
And I think in particular because of the gender dynamics, because she's running to be the first woman president of the United States. She doesn't need the shadow of Joe Biden. And also he's unpopular, so he knows to stand down. He has stood down for the last several months, and he should do the same this kind of gaff I agree with the congresswoman. This is why the change needed
to happen. This is why you see Kamala Harris with precision and message discipline as she turned his gaff back to her consistent themes of unity and a lack of division and a lack of the ugliness.
So she was able to pivot. But he did. I agree with Rick. He stole a day.
There's an opportunity cost here for the Harris campaign where she gave an incredible speech last night to unify the country, and he's immediately distracting from that.
So it's a bummer.
But these are the things that happened in campaigns, and you got to keep going.
It's not like Joe Biden was a major feature on the campaign trail for Kamala Harris.
At this point, Laura, will.
We not see him again on a stage with her between now and next Tuesday.
I don't think you. I don't think you're going to see him before election day.
He knows the best thing that he can do is to stand aside and in fact, you know, letting people lead and playing the role that is required and needed of you is what the entire Democratic surrogate operation has done quite well. I would say it's a significant advantage over Trump's, not just in terms of the diversity and the size of the surrogate base, but also their willingness to lean in and to go where they are going to be most effective. We saw it with surrogates like
Michelle Obama and Barack Obama. We saw it with Republican Liz Cheney. We are seeing it with the generals that are coming out in their own way and striking a contrast between Harris and Trump. So the team is hitting its marks, and this is just one misstep one day.
Well, So as we consider the words of Joe Biden here, Rick, I'd like to talk about some of the words Donald Trump is using, specifically as it pertains to the vote in Pennsylvania. He posted on true Social this morning alleging that there is quote cheating in Pennsylvania.
Others followed up.
Marjorie Taylor Green, the congresswoman from Georgia, suggested that the steal is on in Pennsylvania. Perhaps you're laying the groundwork to contest the results of that state. But what might that signal to you, Rick about the internals the Trump campaign is seeing. If Donald Trump is already saying this thing was stolen.
Yeah, we actually are seeing a pretty aggressive push in the color counties around Philadelphia on early vote. Probably not great for the Trump campaign. And my guess is as soon as you started seeing that is when these claims of theft or irregularities cropped up. When I talk to people who are involved in election law, you know, they don't think they've had anything unusual happen in Pennsylvania other than the typical election week or you know, election month
activity related to balloting. And so you know, he's working the ref he's already laying out the predicate that if he loses. I don't think there's anybody I know who would question that, he will call foul. He'll you know, get his lawyers to issue a bunch of lawsuits against you know, various jurisdictions, all in targeted states, all untargeted
counties to try and contest the election once again. The fact that he's doing it before we've even voted is actually pretty typically did it in twenty sixteen even when he won, and obviously he did it very aggressively before the vote in twenty twenty. So I think that this is just another one of these things that is a distraction.
But it does remind voters that this is the kind of chaos that they experienced with Trump, you know, when he was president ending his term and the whole January sixth thing kind of comes flooding back, and I'm not sure that's particularly a good thing for him.
Two important Supreme Court rulings today, Laura, that I want to ask you about. One of them involves purging voter roles in Virginia. The other involves two swing states here that we've been talking about already this hour, Michigan and Wisconsin. The Supreme Court says OURFK. Junior will stay on the ballot in those two states, knowing how close the race is. Did the Supreme Court just win this for Kamala Harris?
Well, the Supreme Court did what they should do in that decision, simply because the appeal was made far too late. If OURFK Junior did not want his name on the ballot, then he should have petitioned earlier or he should have decided not to run. So this is has been true in American politics forever and ever, so this is not new.
And so the Supreme Court in this.
Instance is reinforcing decades of precedent around election law, and that stability is what we need. In terms of the other case with respect to purging the voter rules, that is an overturn of precedent and two lower court decisions, and the purging of voter rules by Republican governors specific is a tactic that is folded into this same story that Rick was just talking about, where you are essentially saying there's election fraud particular to illegal immigrants, immigrants who
are not documented in this country. And that's something that has been going on for a long time. And Trump affiliated groups have been filing lawsuits in swing states for the better part of the last six months. So they will continue to do this, and they have ceded this idea of voter fraud without evidence, and in contrast and contrary to what election officials are saying, all to sort of lay the groundwork for the claims once again that the election is stolen if they don't win.
Well, Rick, if we consider this Virginia case, what the state argued was that their program where they removed these voters from the rules was based on information provided to the DMV where someone had to check a box to indicate they aren't a US citizen. Now, obviously, opponents to this have said that does leave room for potential error. People who are qualified to vote, maybe became naturalized citizens, could be removed when they shouldn't be. Do you see
actual room for error here? Is this decision justified?
Well, that's the biggest problem is there is always room for error. Right, anytime you systematically merge a file with another file, whether it's voter rolls and DMV data, you're going to have irregularities. Things aren't going to always fit. And that's what happened. From what I can tell in this case. I don't think anybody was going after an effort to try and disenfranchise US citizens from their vote.
But that's why the law says, take you know, don't do these kinds of things within ninety days of the election, because you might have problems. And you know, we keep talking about, oh, you know, purging non voters, but like, if a voter is purged, you are you are violating their civil rights and it is against the constitution that
allows them to have a vote. And even though Virginia only had about sixteen voters who were disenfranchised by this purge, who are in the process of being put back on rolls, this was done in Alabama and they purged three thousand, two hundred people, and two thousand of them were US citizens. So you know, it's the kind of thing where nobody's laying blame. It's just what happens when you merge liss and you don't want to do it too late in the process.
All right, Rick Davis of stone Court Capital and Laura Fink of Rebel Communications our political panel today, Thank you so much for joining us. We have more ahead here on Balance of Power. Up next, we're going to take a look at how markets are viewing this election, specifically through the lens of crypto. That's ahead on Bloomberg TV and radio.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay, and then Rodoto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven.
Thank you for being with us here on the Wednesday edition of Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. You can find us on YouTube right now as well search Bloomberg Business News Live. We'll save a seat for you here in the studio as we consider the impact or not the election is having on the markets. Amy
was just talking about. We've had an ongoing conversation with Abigail Doolittle, Bloomberg Markets correspondent, who has been very effective at capturing this moment on Wall Street and the intersection of Washington and Wall Street, the Trump trade, the Harris trade, if there is one, and she's with us now six days out, Abigail, it's great to see you. This is a market obsessed with earnings, of course, we've got a lot of them today Google, AMD, Lily and so on.
Is anyone thinking about the election while they're trading earnings?
That is certainly the main story, Joe, and it's interesting volume for the S and P five hundred right now, about twenty percent above even twenty five percent above the twenty day moving average for the stock volume on that index, so investors very interested. But as Amy was talking about, the S and P five hundred barely moving despite those earnings movers beneath the surface alphabet up more than five percent,
AMD down closer to ten percent that surface flat. I would say, in a way that may reflect some of the tug of war right before the election, but overall, the markets have been voting on this election for quite some time. Given the fact that the S and P five hundred year to date up more than twenty percent. Historically, as you both know, Joe and Kelly, the S and P five hundred stocks tend to do very well in
presidential election years and this year is no exception. Again into today that SMP five hundred up a very healthy twenty percent.
Well, okay, So if stocks are doing okay, there is the question about the bond market as well, which has been whipsided by a multitude of things, including the outlook for monetary policy. But can we say in the bomb market now, Abigail, it's more about fiscal policy than monetary at this point.
So that's a.
Great question, Kelly, because in terms of the stock market. If we were to break it down a little bit more in terms of that twenty percent gain, it's certainly leaning toward the former president Donald Trump, with DJT up
about three hundred percent in recent weeks. We also have the Trump predicted higher than the Harris predicted, but relative to the bond market because the expectation, and this according to Steve soasnik Over an interactive broker, that broker that his fiscal policy could be super loose and it could mean problems for the budget. That yields could go higher if that continues. Because when yields go higher, that means liquidity is coming out of the system. That could actually
in turn pressure stock. So we're keeping a very close eye on the bond market for sure. Those yields backing up in just the last couple of weeks a very big amount, by fifty to sixty basis point, depending on what yield, what bond, what note you're looking at.
We see that they sitting at just about a twenty europe almost four percent. Kind of interesting to consider the potential for volatility around what happens next week Abigail. And then there's crypto. Wall Street seems to think they have this figured out, don't they.
You know, it's interesting, so that VIX has really been a great tell that the three of us have been watching since July, the VIX curve months and months ago, around in eighteen, when the VIX itself had been at fifteen. So volatility back then at the time very low, but around the election high, and right now it's high. So investors a little bit wary in terms of what the
result could be. Would it be you know, Willoughby, Harris or Trump, And some are saying that if a VP Harris is to win, that could be a near term negative for stocks because she may not be so friendly to taxes, especially around capital grains. There could be some profit taking. But to your point on crypto, it's very interesting right now bitcoin trading above seventy thousand dollars per bitcoin.
The possible Trump administration considered to be crypto friendly, So that might be another way of markets weighing in on saying that they are voting for Donald Trump. But of course that is we don't know that that's the case. But markets right now, right across the board, seemed to be leaning a little bit red at least for the White House.
Yeah, all right, Bloomberg Markets correspondent Abigail Doolittle, thank you so much. As Abigail points to what we're seeing in crypto in the notion that Donald Trump would be better for bitcoin and other digital assets, at least one person would disagree with that. Democratic Congressman Wiley Nickel of North Carolina, who was a leader of crypto for Harris zoom calls early in her candidacy and sits on the Financial Services Committee, had this to say on Bloomberg Crypto yesterday.
Kamala Harris's position of protecting US consumers keeping digital innovation in the US puts you're squarely in line with the seventy one Democrats, including myself who supported FIT twenty one. So I think we've got a really good forward looking approach by Vice President Harris. And if I can say one thing about our opponent in this race, there's only one candidate running for president who's called crypto a scam, and that's Donald Trump, who did nothing on this issue for four years.
So we want to dig more into the issue of crypto and specifically how it is shaping voter sentiment. With six days to go until election day, and we've got some new data out from Paradigm and their VP of Regulatory Affairs, Justin Slaughter is joining us now in our Washington, d C studio.
Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Justin good to be back here, Gaily.
Thanks for being with us, and thank you for this data which is incredibly insightful in terms of what it finds. You find five percent of all voters describe themselves as single issue crypto voters. What does the actual breakdown of that five percent look like?
Great question.
So to be clear, there's been a lot of discussion over the last few months about whether or not the significant amount of people who own crypto in American We have it as twenty percent of all registered and likely voters have bought crypto along with other polls, and it's not clear whether or not they will vote on that disc you know, purchase. So we asked those who bought crypto in the past, do you consider yourself a single issue crypto voter? And I'll read the wording exactly as
it matters for polling. Do you consider yourself a single issue crypto voter? And the government policy on crypto is the most important policy you consider when selecting a candidate for office, and a quarter of those who bought crypto five percent of all likely voters say yes they are. This was a surprisingly large number in our view, especially given how close this election is. I mean, we're looking at one percent margins in all the key states.
How about when it comes down to Trump versus Harris. Both have tried to.
Seize on this.
We could probably argue Donald Trump a little more aggressively, even getting into the family business to some extent, But Harris has tried to make clear her openness to new ideas to enhancing growth in crypto. But the industry seems to favor Trump. What did you learn?
It was surprising because we're looking not at the industry but voters, and among crypto purchasers it's tied forty seven forty seven. This is better for Trump than in the overall ballot, which we have as forty eight forty six. But Harris has improved dramatically from where Biden was in March. When we asked this question March, asking who do you favor Biden or Trump? Forty eight percent of crypto purchasers
favorite Trump. Only thirty nine percent favored Biden. Even though this was a population that voted more for Biden than Trump in twenty twenty.
Well, favoring is one thing, trusting is another. And I did notice in your data Republicans and Donald Trump are trusted more to promote the kind of growth and regulatory nature of the crypto environment moving.
Forward, exactly right, And that also is a change from March. In March it was tied. Twenty five percent said Republicans were fate were better, twenty five percent said Democrats. But now, in the wake of obviously a lot of statements, Donald Trump said he wanted a bitcoin sovereign wealth fund, He's doing a DeFi protocol. Thirty percent of voters say they trust Republicans more on crypto policy. Only twenty five percent trust Democrats more. But this is still a jump ball.
Independence are much more mixed up, about ten percent trusting each side. So there's ways to come back.
We just heard from Wiley Nicchol who has embraced crypto in a way that a lot of lawmakers have not. But he has a vision, as he's told us, even beyond his tenure in the House of Lawmakers, finding some critical mass here, finding common ground, maybe a mainstreaming of crypto with so many lawmakers kind of catching.
Up to the narrative here.
Do you see that in the next term, regardless of who the president is.
I actually do, because we also asked all voters do you consider that crypto will be a major part of the economy going forward or a passing fad? And forty six percent of all likely voters said they considered a major part of the economy, along with forty seven percent of independent voters. And remember, only twenty percent of voters had bought crypto, so a lot of people who haven't even bought into it yet see it as a major part of the economy. And obviously, as Congressman Nickel would
tell you, elected officials and policymakers follow the voters. The voters in a democracy are always our north star.
So no matter who ultimately when it's not the presidency but majorities in the House and Senate, do you think actual crypto market structure legislation delineating sec CFTC authority will pass.
In the next next Congress.
I definitely think it'll be considered. The sixty four thousand dollars question in DC, of course, whether it'll pass, it should pass. I would think there's a desire for it to pass, But it does seem like we finally have an appreciation a lot of DC that this is here to stay, and this needs to be well regulated and ultimately right. That is what both candidates are saying. They want America to dominate the blockchain in the words of Kamala Harris, to you know, to control bitcoin, of the
words of Donald Trump. So there is a consensus, I think burgeoning that we need to be getting up to speed with other countries on crypto.
So we don't necessarily need a Republican Congress to make that happen.
I don't think we do. It's worth noting right that. I think no matter what, it's likely you could see gridlock or something you can to it. We have at a Republican House, this Congress, of course, and it often had issues governing itself. This is a topic to Congress. From Nichols points seventy one Democrats voted for FIT twenty one, which is a high amount. You could see a bipartisan row Garden signing ceremony for crypto legislation, which is not something you can say about most topics next.
Year, well, and it does remind us that legislation is what ultimately could change a lot of things for the industry. But the way the president could change things, aside from expressing openness, is appointing regulators right at the CFTC and the SEC. Obviously, we can assume with Donald Trump that's going to look a lot different.
What about with Kamala.
Harris, It's an open question.
It's definitely the case that the president has a lot of power to move around commissioners at any time. Right, a chairman serves the pleasure of the president. She could say she wants to name a current acting commissioner of the chair. She could nominate someone else's commissioner and name that person chair, and that in general, right, I think part of how we got here is that Biden admin has been shall we say, sclerotic, shambalic in terms of
it desprot to crypto. There is no one central guiding star and I saw that in person in twenty one when I was at the SEC. If you have a president Harris coming in saying I want to finally have the government sing from one songbook, that should unlock a lot of potential policy making and hopefully some clarity.
What will be the residue of this campaign when it comes to the influence of crypto, not just on the presidential level, but some of the Senate races, like in Ohio, like in Massachusetts, where we've seen self funded candidates come out of nowhere and actually make a vent.
I think it definitely shows this issue matters. I think that's the number one thing that was surprising to people in DC. If you talk to them in early twenty three, you said, this is going to be a major issue because so many people by crypto.
They said, what are you talking about?
Come on, that's not true, and you have to point polling to them, and they still don't really get it. One thing we've seen in our polling that's very notable is that ownership is highest among people who are young, people who are male, people who are non white, but it's lowest among people who are older, who are white
and at POSTCRID degrees. So in many ways, ownership is disproportionately low among the exact staffing group that exists in Washington, d C. And that I think has caused the blind spot on this topic that does not exist in New York or San Francisco.
But when Joe's asking about the kind of money that has come into some of these races fair Shake, for example, there are now Crypto packs with tens of millions of dogs that they've put into this race. Do you expect that kind of money dispensing will exist from this industry and cycles moving forward?
I think the evidence is that crypto is saying it's here to stay and be a player going forward. Obviously what that means any given cycles unclear, but it seems
unlikely to expect that Crypto will simply walk away. That said, legislation changes everything you can imagine, you know, things changing as part of a market structure bill, and I think that is in fact one of the key questions is what does this industry look like when it is fully part of a well regulated clear system where the regulator is working with the industry and on behalf of consumers, investors, and not against it.
We were just talking earlier with the Abigail about what the markets might do in some of the uncertainty that could follow the election next week. Do you expect a wild ride for Bitcoin for other coins starting Wednesday morning?
That is so far above my pay great? And if I knew that, I'd be in a different job. I think what I've learned. So I've been following elections professionally and as an amateur for basically twenty five years. There's never been an election where I'm more un certain of the outcome in this about that it's not just close, it's that the Arabars are so wide. It's potentially the case. There's a lot of hurting going on. Nate Silver was
talking about that. So for me, I'm just trying to gird myself for the unknowable, you know, the known unknowns as it were in Rumsfeldian talk.
Yeah, it's all got right now.
That's why we have to ask justin Slaughter Paradigm. Great to see you and thank you for bringing the research in this important pull a really important conversation, Kaylee, as we try to seize on crypto here along with every other element that brings something to this campaign, hopefully some visibility about where we end up next week.
Yep.
And this is your unique lens here at Bloomberg how the policies we're hearing about on the trail actually could impact markets and regulation.
Will continue to do that on Bloomberg TV. Entry.
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