Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
A Monday edition of Balance of Power with his Eyes on the Markets for us, I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington and glad you're with us here as we count down to a possible government shutdown a week from today, and of course an election that is six weeks from tomorrow. Kayley, these countdown clocks are starting to bring some anxiety, so all of us watching this as
we bring the element of crypto back to the conversation. Now, we mentioned already that both presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump this week are going to be making big economic policy speeches one tomorrow, Donald Trump and George A Wednesday, Kamala Harris in Pittsburgh. It's that Wednesday address.
Kaylee.
I'm curious if we hear about crypto because she was talking about it over the weekend, got a lot of people pretty optimistic about the idea of both candidates embracing this.
Yeah.
Well, this is the first time we've heard her speak about crypto so directly, but it still was kind of broad stroke. She talked about it being an innovative technology, liking in it to AIII and digital assets is what she mentioned while protecting consumers and investors. So this isn't necessarily a pledge like Donald Trump has delivered to get
rid of the current SEC Chair Gary Gainstlard. It's not even necessarily a promise to sign crypto market structure of legislation into law, for example, like the FIT twenty one bill that passed the House earlier this Congress. But it at least opens a door, and judging by the early reaction from the industry, they'll take this over nothing at all.
Well, that's absolutely right, and we wanted to talk to somebody who had a bit of sensitivity to.
The issue of crypto.
And while we're at at North Carolina, Kaylee, because there's a big going on there right now too.
Yeah, and we're going to get into all of it now with Congressman Wiley Nicol, the Democrat from North Carolina. Pleased to see you back here on Bloomberg TV and radio. Congressmen, of course, you sit on the Financial Services Committee and you are a passionate advocate for crypto on Capitol Hill.
So my question to you is, I know you liked what you heard from Kamala Harris over the weekend, but does she not need to go further get more specific as Donald Trump has been pretty specific about some of his pledges, including the fact that he wouldn't like Kenseler helming the SEC anymore.
Well, you know, I want to say I certainly I loved what I heard from Vice President Harris over the weekend, really putting her in line with the bipartisan majority in the US House of Representatives, that's you know, Democrats and Republicans embracing digital innovation. The messaging that she put out was what we were encouraging her to embrace, and what it shows is a real reset on this issue and a shift from the current approach of regulation by enforcement
with the SEC. You know, we know, I know from my conversations with Vice President Harris and her team that we're going to have a forward looking president who's going to embrace digital innovation and wants to keep those jobs here. She understands why it's important for the US to be a leader in this space. So, you know, this is this was a very welcome policy you know update from
her and policy proposal. But the language she's using is very specific and very important in terms of the work we're doing here in the House of Representatives and then on you know, when we get through the Senate to get this bill done in this Congress. So you know, I think I think for folks watching you know, this space, it was it was a big deal.
What she said.
Well, if we could put a finer point on it, Congressman, you set a tweet over the weekend that got our attention. Writing this new policy position puts her in line with FIT twenty one House and Senate Democrats working to protect consumers and keep digital innovation in the United States. Do we know that, in fact, that the contents of FIT twenty one are endorsed by Kamala Harris.
What what we do know is that that she's staking out a position that that you know, signals a shift from from the current Biden administration. That's just natural with with a new candidate, you know, running in her own right. So you know, I think that's that's important to point out here. And you know, we're we're gonna she's going to continue to make policy proposals and and elaborate on
her issues. But but I think I think if you're just talking specifically about FIT twenty one, uh, you know, what we're going to see is what Senator Schumer has has pledged to get this bill on the floor of the Senate for a vote and back to the House this year. And when when when he does that, it's going to be you know, Democratic votes that push this issue.
And you know, we're going to see an improved product that I think is definitely going to be the kind of thing that can get support from from uh, you know, from a Vice President Harris and from others.
Well.
And what if that becomes reality will be the result of that is different delineation between the authorities of the CFT. You see an SEC when it comes to regulating digital assets. But Congressman, I am curious in your conversations with the Vice President and her team around crypto, are they suggesting to you that we will see different heads of those regulatory bodies. Who would you recommend if they decide not to keep the current current occupants like Gary Gonsler in those seats.
Well, I don't want to talk about what they've said, but I can talk about what I've said, and I've said that Gary Gensler has been a disaster for this administration and his approach on digital assets has taken our country in the wrong direction in a very very significant way. I don't think there's anyone in the US Congress who thinks that Gary Gensler could ever survive a Senate confirmation
for any position in the administration. So I think if anybody you know is trying to talk about Gary Gensler continuing on beyond his term, they're just trying to make cheap political points. I think his you know, there's I think there's zero chance that he ever gets confirmed for
anything else. And I've said that a whole bunch, So I think, you know, I think his approach is gonna is going to end when his term ends, And you know, all I can do is just focus on making sure that that you know, if and when we get Vice President Harris is our our next president, that you know she has a balanced approach on this issue. And that was the signal that we got from from her own mouth. You know, on these issues over the weekend.
As we spend time with Congressman Wiley Nickel of North Carolina, I understand you could be voting as soon as Wednesday, Congressman on a stop gap funding bill. It's on to Plan B. This one described by Speaker Johnson as clean. It's a three month stop gap and he will need Democrats to pass it. Are you on board?
Oh? Yeah, no, absolutely, And and and for folks watching, it's going to be House Democrats who are putting people over politics and putting this issue over the top. Republicans continue to be at war with each other. The chaos and confusion I see across the continues on. We're on track to be the least productive Congress in our nation's history. But this week we're going to get a vote on
a clean cr to keep the lights on. And it's going to be the majority of votes coming from House Democrats to put this issue over the top in the House, and I believe in the Senate as well. So you know, I think that's that's something for folks to to keep an eye on. You know, we're here to govern, we're here to be responsible. My Republican colleagues just want to blow things up, and Mike Johnson, I don't know if he's even going to get a majority of Republicans to
support this, but but House Democrats will be there. And because you know, we can't roll back the progress we're making with the economy by a huge unforced airror shutting down the federal government.
So I'm very well.
Well and if your optimism proves correct that this will ultimately get past kick the can down the road to December twentieth, when it will be the lame duck session, assuming will know the outcome of the election. Congressman, how messy could this get at the end of the year. Are you concerned when Mike Johnson hasn't been able to keep his party in line to get things across currently that that may actually create quite quite a messy situation come the end of the year and the end of this Congress.
I think reasonable minds are going to prevail, especially after the election. So much of what happens in Congress right now is driven by politics with the presidential election. The best time for bipartisan governance is for those two months right after an elections. The furthest away we're going to be from the next election which is the mid term
two years away. So I'm really working hard on a ton of issues to push them across the finish line, things you know, like fit twenty one for digital assets, and certainly getting a good you know, a good continued resolution, you know, or budget, which which we actually should have passed months ago. So I think in this case we're in.
I'm very optimistic that we're going to start working on this next CR or you know, the budget, and and you know, have a ton of options that we can get moving in a bipartisan way.
Right after the election, well, Congressman Nicol, there's a lot of talk about your home state of North Carolina after what happened with the lieutenant governor, a Republican running for the big job. He's the nominee for Governor. Mark Robinson stopped a lot of people in their tracks last week with this story on CNN about his trolling on this porn site in some of the outrageous things that he has said to have posted. He still says none of it's true, but most of his entire senior staff has
now quit. He was left last evening with just three campaign staffers, one of whom is his bodyguard. What do you know about this, Congressman, had you heard any stories like these? And how does this end for Mark Robinson?
Well, I think it's going to end very well for for the American people and the people of North Carolina, because we're gonna have a great governor with Josh Stein. We've known this about We've known Mark Robinson's character for quite a long time. He's totally unfit to be our next governor. I served in the state Senate when he was, you know, the president of the Senators, our lieutenant governor uh and and his his positions are far out of you know, the mainstream for North Carolina. But we now
know really even more about who he is. The comments he's made are horrific, disgusting and totally disqualifying. And you know the fact that his entire campaign staff quit, you know as a group, tells you that they know that
it's it's true as well. So I think, you know, my focus is just communicating with with folks in North Carolina about the good choice they have for Josh Stein and making it clear that if you don't, if you don't condemn Mark Robinson, you stand with him, and you stand with his Nazi positions, his pro slavery positions, and so many others that are just absolutely disqualifying. I wish we were in the news for better things in North Carolina,
but unfortunately this sad story is getting out there. But for me, North Carolina is an amazing place where y'all means all. And I think that's the message I want for folks to have as they think about the great state of North Carolina.
Well, and of course it is a state that could ultimately decide the outcome of the presidential election as well. There's been some conversation since these allegations around Mark Robinson came to light about the downward drag he could create for Donald Trump. And yet the New New York Times Sianna poll that was conducted in North Carolina from September seventeenth to twenty first, so at least in part after these allegations came to light, still shows Donald Trump up
two points on Harris forty nine to forty seven. Yes, within the margin of error. But would you expect these Robinson allegations to move that needle more materially for Harris?
I do, because Donald Trump endors Bark Robinson. He's he's he's still standing with him right now, and I think that's something that is important for the voters, and we're going to continue to make the case that that by refusing to condemn this absolutely abhorrent behavior, these posts, the things that he said, it shows that you're with him.
So I think this is going to be a huge issue for folks in North Carolina, and I'm very optimistic that it's going to put you know, the right candidates over the top when we when we get when we vote in our state in just starting just in a few weeks with early voting.
Well, just to get back to the matter at hand this week, Congressman, and we always appreciate your being so generous with your time. Is the government going to stay open through this deadline? A week from today now?
The government is going to stay open for business. And you know we're going to pass thanks to Democrats, House Democrats and our leader Hakim Jefferies, we're going to join to pass a continuing resolution to keep the government open. We knew all along that Mike Johnson had no hand to play. He's folded like a deck of cards here and you know, thankfully is doing the right thing to put a bill on the floor to keep the government open. We need to just focus all of us on the economy.
That's always the most important issue, and shutting down the federal government right now would be a disaster for our economy. Thankfully we're going to avoid that. But I would just say for folks watching, you know who's the responsible party here in Washington. Look to House Democrats and look to the vote score. You're going to see a lot more House Democrats supporting this than the other side of the aisle.
Well, we covered a lot of ground. Congressman Wiley Nickel, the Democrat from North Carolina, whereas he says, y'all means all. Congressman, thank you for a great conversation.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then royd Otto with a Bloomberg business ad. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty The Campaigntrail.
Coming off a weekend that saw both the candidates out, they are fanning out again today. Donald Trump in Indiana, you say why in Indiana, the swing state of Indiana. It's actually a town in Pennsylvania right between Pittsburgh and punk Satani. That's where the former president is today. By the way, political reporting that the DNC is trolling Donald Trump with chicken signs across Indiana Pennsylvania because he doesn't want to do another debate. Jd Vance in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Tim Walls in New York before going to Saint Paul, Minnesota. With new polling out, that's got a lot of people talking today. I'll tell you what, when Don Levy goes in the field, he brings something back every time. And the narrative this morning is hey, slow down. This whole idea of Kamala Harris catching up with, if not surpassing, Donald Trump in the polls. Look at the swing states of Arizona and Georgia. Enter Sienna College, New York Times.
Donald Trump gaining e laite in Arizona, remains ahead in Georgia. With the top lines. We're gonna add North Carolina too. This is gonna be a bit of a Sunbelt theme today, all right, Trump fifty in Arizona, Harris forty five and Georgia Trump forty nine, Harris forty five. In North Carolina, Trump forty nine, Harris forty seven. Back with us on Bloomberg Don Levy, Siena College Research Institute Director, Don, It's
great to have you back. This reminds us that each poll is a snapshot, and this is a living, moving organism as we make our way to November, isn't it?
It absolutely is.
I mean, voters are enthusiastic, they want to respond to us, and right now these results certainly are moment in time, but you can't ignore them.
Right now, Trump has pulled ahead by.
Five points in Arizona. And it's especially noteworthy because in the very same pole the Senate race, which I know you follow very closely, Diego up by six over Lake. So an eleven point difference between where Harris stands in Arizona versus where Gego stands. And what's most important to these voters They continue that they're worried about the direction
of the country. The economy is important, and also really interesting in these three poles is where before the issue of protecting democracy was an issue that Harris had an advantage of five six seven point advantage. Right now who's better at protecting democracy? Trump and Harris are even across each of these three key swing states.
Well, you know, part of the narrative when Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden at the top of the ticket down and I'm sure I asked you about this at the time, was a new opening across the sun Belt that you didn't have to necessarily rely on these old Rust Belt states the blue Wall, because Kamala Harris might have more
appeal than Joe Biden in some of these states. We looked at Georgia, we looked at Arizona, and yes, North Carolina, which we were talking about just last week being a problem for Republicans in part because of this new Mark Robinson scandal. But what do you make of that now when you pull out broadly and look at the potential lanes to victory for these candidates.
Well, certainly the.
Sun Belt lane is by no means closed for Harris. I mean you bring up North Carolina there. You know, a month ago we had Harris by two, you know, during that enthusiasm burst after the Democratic Invention. Now we've got Trump by two, really a dead heat. And I think you're really right to point out this issue with
Mark Robinson. Our polling was ostensibly completed right before that big story broke, and right now in that race, the cubernatorial race in North Carolina, we have a Democrat Stein up by ten.
Points over Robinson.
As I say, that's most of that polling done before the news. So we're looking at a situation at North Carolina where I think the Republicans are going to remain worried about a reverse code tales that maybe could narrow that gap that we see right now between Trump up by two over Harris there in the tari Hill state.
Looking at Arizona as well, a ballot measure codifying the fundamental right to an abortion as they call it, you find is supported by fifty eight percent of the state's likely voters. I don't know if that's reverse or how that works with coattails, but what does that mean for Kamala Harris as an issue that potentially drives the top of the ticket.
It's a winning issue for she continues to lead not only in Arizona, but in each and every one of these battleground states.
When we say who's better on the issue of abortion.
Now, you got to remember, though, that there's a difference between voters who say they want abortion to always be legal and voters who say they want it to be mostly There is certainly some erosion away from Harris amongst voters who say that abortion should be mostly legal, where nearly half of those voters actually prefer Donald Trump. So
abortion continues to be an important winning issues. Certainly, the Harris camp is hopeful that that ballot initiative will bring out voters who might not otherwise vote younger voters, young women, and that those voters could narrow this current five point gap that Harris suffers from there in Arizona.
Really interesting here as both candidates get out in the field this week to again hold major at least as they're being termed major policy speeches on the economy, we're going to get them back to back. It looks like Tuesday Georgia Donald Trump, Wednesday Kamala Harris in Pittsburgh. They've both got their own angles here, of course, especially well, I shouldn't say, especially when it comes to taxes, because they even have some overlap there with no taxes on tips.
What did you find, don on this most important issue that we've seen quite a bit of narrowing in the last couple of weeks in other swing state polls.
Well, a couple of things in the three swing states that we just looked at. When we ask voters a simple question, you know, are headed on the right track or in the wrong direction?
By about two to one, you know, all three.
Of these states voters told us they think the country is headed in the wrong direction. The economy really stands out when we say, did Trump's policies help you or hurt you?
You know, people like you.
Trump enjoys a plurality of voters who say that they remember his years, especially the economic component of those years. More Finally, they tend to say that his policies helped them rather than hurt them. A small plurality are worried that Harris's economic policies could hurt them more than help them. Trump continues to enjoy in the sun Belt states a
wider margin on who's better in the economy. If we had time, you know, I'm sure we'll talk about it later in the week when we're out with Michigan.
And Wisconsin again.
But in the Rust Belt, that gap over the economy has closed more and Trump has a much smaller lead in terms of voters impression off who's better in the economy. I think policy statements this week from both of them could influence those voters in the northern rust belt.
States as well.
The undecideds are always a fascination to us. Here in twelve percent of these voters, and check me if I'm reading this incorrectly, twelve percent of these voters who said they could still change their mind said their biggest concern about Kamala Harris was around her handling of the economy. That's exactly why she's talking this week, right.
Oh, absolutely, she's trying to find that secret sauce. Is it specific policies, is it an overall feeling?
You know?
To what degree is she going to distance herself from the Biden administration? She continues to wrestle with how can she convince these undecided voters, many of whom are younger, many of whom have historically leaned more towards Democrats, but who at the same time say the economy is tough for them. In fact, young voters, undecided voters tell us that the economy is even a greater issue, a greater
problem for them than older voters. So Harris has got to keep pounding on how she's going to address the economy. For those voters right now, Trump continues to enjoy.
A margin there.
And now we add in the situation in the Mid East, and we know from our polling that voters tend to see Trump as being more respected by world leaders than as Harris, and as.
A stronger leader than Harris.
So in a time of global instability, that also tends to give a bit of a nod right now to Trump over Harris.
Okay, Don, I'm out of time, I have like thirty seconds.
I'm just curious.
Do you see evidence in your research that voters want to seem more interviews as we keep hearing with Kamala Harris, that they want more detail in the media by doing town halls and interviews.
Yeah, absolutely, voters are asking for that, they say by Rato about three to one if they're less likely to know enough about Kamala Harris as compared with Trump. They also, in some polls have told us that they'd like to see another debate. Right now, it doesn't look like we're going to see that, But yes, voters are asking.
For more information about Vice President Harris.
There you have it from Don Levy, the authority at Siena College Research Institute.
Great to have you backed on.
Thank you so much for the insights in a poll that is driving the conversation coming off of this weekend. We're six weeks out as of tomorrow.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then roun Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Some concerns, I guess we could use that word for the Harris campaign and the sun belt. The fact of the matter is, even while we see Donald Trump car battle lead in Arizona and maintain a lead in Georgia, this is still so close. When you put this together with the NBC pull from over the weekend, CBS ipsos, this thing is still too close to call, even when
you get down on the swing state level. I do find it interesting, though, that some of the sunlight we see between these two candidates on the issue of the economy that was born out in several of these.
Polls well, and we're going to be hearing more from them on the economy, perhaps not a coincidence this week, as they will be giving speeches in separate events this week. So we turn now as we assess all of this latest polling, to doctor Lara Brown. She's a political scientist and author of Amateur, Our Presidential Character and the Question of Leadership. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio, Laura, always great to have you. If we could just begin
with the New York Times Siena Sunbelt polls. Yes, Donald Trump up by five in Arizona, four in Georgia, just two in North Carolina. Those latter two, it's within the margin of error. But what was noteworthy to me is in this poll about fifteen percent of the electorate in these three states describe themselves as undecided or not definitely decided. How much room really is there for minds to change here?
Well, I don't think it's necessarily minds to change. It's really a resolve to vote. I do think there is, and has been for a long time with Donald Trump on the ballot, a group of voters who are displeased with him as a candidate, but are not sold on
voting for a Democrat. And so some of what happens is these people who say they want to vote but say they're undecided are often just unresolved to turn out at all, and I think that's where there can be some persuasion efforts to get people to the polls, and things could change on election day depending on who really does show up.
Interesting numbers on the economy, Laura, I'll point to the NBC News poll here with Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris fifty to forty one percent nine points on the economy at large, and on dealing with inflation and the cost of living an eight point lead forty eight to forty percent. They're both both candidates holding economic policy speeches this week in which they'll try to round out their approach to
taxes and incentives. But I wonder can Kamala Harris win this election without turning these numbers around.
Well, I think she doesn't need to completely turn them around, but she needs to narrow that gap. The reality is she's already cut that gap in half since she's been in the race. When you look at the other polls from June, prior to Biden stepping away from the race, Donald Trump was leading by twenty points on that issue.
So I do think there has been kind of a return to a sense that the economy is getting better, But not enough people yet feel the impacts of that restoration, and so many individuals are still suffering under the high prices that we experienced with the really unprecedented inflation in the last few years.
Well, of course, Laura, in that regard, we got some big news last week in the form of a FED rate cut. It is the only one we'll get prior to voters actually going to the polls, though they could very well cut rates again just two days after the election. How much do you think that really influences, at least the sentiment of the voter and consumer. Knowing that rates are lower, perhaps it's easier to buy a home or a car, you buy things essentially that require debt. Does
that make a material difference? And when will we see that show up in polls?
If it does well, I think if it's going to show up in polls, it probably won't show up until late October, partly because where most Americans will see it the fastest is actually in their credit card statements, where they see the changed interest rate that was applied to their revolving debt. So, yes, many Americans are now kind of looking at home ownership, and we could see that
as rates came down in anticipation of this cut. Mortgage rates fell kind of in Unison, and I do think more people are thinking about housing changes, but my guess is a lot of that will wait until after the first of the year, and it may not arrive in time for the Democrats at this election.
Laura, I'm curious your thoughts on Donald Trump's approach to women over the weekend, and not only on Truth Social, but in person and a rally that he held in North Carolina, knowing that it will likely be suburban women who choose or to decide this election. It's a very long post on Truth Social in all caps. I won't spend time reading the whole thing, but he says I will protect women at a level never seen before. They will finally be healthy, hopeful, safe and secure. Their lives will be happy,
beautiful and great again. He prefaced that by talking about current conditions for women in America, and he read directly from his post in North Carolina.
Here he is, so let's talk about our great women.
Women have gone through a lot.
They've gone through a lot.
Women are poorer than they were four years ago, are less healthy than they were four years ago, are less safe, on the streets than they were four years ago. I will fit all of that women, I will fix all of that, and I will fix it fair and at long last, this national nightmare that we're going through will be over. Women will be happy, healthy, confident, and free.
You will no longer be thinking about abortion, because it is now where it always had to be, with the States and with the vote of the people.
You will no longer be thinking about abortion. I saw a lot of references on Twitter over the weekend to mansplaining Laura, I wonder what you think about this direct appeal by Donald Trump to women voters.
Well, I think that Donald Trump has very little credibility among many women in America, and in fact, the historic gender gaps that we are seeing in the polling is not only sort of there and present. But if we go back to twenty sixteen and we remember his election, and then we remember his inauguration in twenty seventeen, there was a giant women's march the very next day, the Sunday after he was inaugurated, was the largest march on Washington and really women's march around the country. So I
don't think it is credible. It's also indirect contradiction to some of the comments that have been made by either vice presidential nominee jd Vance, former President Donald Trump himself with his Access Hollywood tape and the things he has
said about Egene Carroll and Stormy Daniels. And then, of course you get to North Carolina itself, where the Republican gubernatorial nominee has been not just revealed as sort of making misogynistic statements toward women, but has himself been caught up in a scandal involving pornography yep.
And Mark Robinson has lost now four senior members of his campaign staff. He didn't get much from Donald Trump in terms of airtime in North Carolina this weekend, though he of course wasn't there at the rally. Donald Trump
didn't address it. How do you actually consider Mark Robinson being on the ballot with Donald Trump, Laura and looking at the polling in which Trump, according to New York Times Siana is just two points ahead of Harris and Erase this tight, does that kind of candidate actually make the difference?
Well, certainly, Mitch McConnell talked about in a prior cycle how important candidate quality is for turnout for a ballot for a party to really coalesce and engage and enthusiastically vote for their candidates. So I do think that Mark
Robinson is a problem for the Republicans. I think the bigger problem is that North Carolina, like Florida, and like Texas, also have very stringent state level restrictions on abortion, and that is impacting women in those states in a disproportionate way, in a way it's not hitting or impacting women in
Michigan or Pennsylvania. So I think we have to be very cognizant of how abortion in those states could actually play to the detriment of Republicans much more than in other places in the country.
A recurring theme in our conversation Slately doctor Laura Brown, political scientists. Laura, it's great to have you back on Bloomberg. Thanks for a great conversation. As always, as we follow the polling data and Kaylee, we follow the money as well with our panel. Next we find Kamala Harris out spending Donald Trump to the tune of five million dollar a day. Rick and Genie up next on Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroyd Outo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio, Charlie Pellett. There, just throwing some numbers at you that you need to know, and I'm going to do some more. The latest figures assembled by your colleague Bill Allison, according to federal campaign filings, in terms of spending for both of the presidential campaigns, Kamala Harris spending an average of seven and a half million dollars a day in August. That's nearly five million more than Donald Trump, who spent
two point six million on average. You look ahead into September, she's spending one hundred and fifty two million dollars on advertising this month according to ad Impact. That's a twenty one percent increase to August, and it's more than the sixty three million dollars that Trump is spending. If it's a money race, Joe, it's an interesting.
One, and we know who's winning the money race, But what is the value of money in this race is a question we've asked a lot, certainly when you're running against the king of earned media, and so we assemble our panel for their take on this. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino are back with us on the Monday edition of Balance and Power. Of course, Genie's a political science professor at Iona University. Rick Davis partner at Stone Court Capital. Great to see you both here. Rick, your thoughts on this.
Having run a presidential campaign, you know the value of a dollar, but if you're running against Donald Trump, is it a different question.
Yeah. First, you're absolutely right. He is the king of earned media. When he speaks, the media reports it even you know, when they know they shouldn't, they do it anyway, and so he gets an enormous advantage with that. But he also doesn't control what is said about him on earned media, and he doesn't always, you know, sort of
stick to a message. So he kind of diminishes his own impact through earned media, which means probably advantage Kamala Harris because she's out spending him on the airwaves where eighty percent of the campaign budgets being used, and significantly so to the point of four sometimes five times more money on TV in key targeted swing states than Donald
Trump's using. And so I still think a prepared message over and over and over, you know, to voters is going to win out in the long run if the issue is education of the voters.
Okay, So if that's true, Genie, why if Kamala Harris has already been spending that kind of money trying to hit the same message as home, are we not seeing it necessarily show up materially in polls which still show this is a neck and neck race. There has been no serious Harris breakout, at least consistently.
There hasn't been a breakout, but she is up a lot from where Joe Biden was when she took over. You just look at the issue of the economy. Donald Trump is still leading by about plus nine in the latest polls, but that is a far cry from where he was leading in the double digits over Joe Biden.
So she has seen some movement, and I would suggest some of that movement is coming from the money that you're talking about, because she has been able to use digital to micro target She's spending five to one over Trump on micro targeting, and that has resulted in gains among some key constituencies that said, Kaylee, you're absolutely right for all the spending. She is not running away with the poles either, So you know, she's sort of back
to where we were twenty twenty. She's made the race of you know, more of a dead heat certainly than where it was when Joe Biden was at the top of the ticket. But it is it is a struggle, nonetheless, because Donald Trump is able to do a lot with a little bit of money that he is able and willing to spend on the campaign.
Our story refers to the rapid inflow of checks from deep pocketed donors to Harris's campaign since she replaced Joe Biden. And there's a fascinating story from over the weekend of the Wall Street Journal. I want to ask you both about about Harris's undercover push to win over corporate America, remembering she's been publicly appealing to small businesses and to consumers.
But look at this, in the ten days before Joe Biden dropped out of the campaign, he got about ninety one thousand dollars from about nine hundred ninety donors with self identified CEO titles. In the ten days after Harris's campaign received nearly two million dollars from five thousand such donors. There are stories Rick about Harris hosting dinners at the Naval Observatory with eight to ten chief executives on the
regular talking about a range of topics. This is about more than Mark Cuban and I wonder, Rick, how important these these relationships that she's developing will be to the end result of this campaign.
Well, fundamentally they result in campaign contributions. And so if you believe what I believe, which is having more money to spend on TV and organizationally and on the ground is an advantage for you, even in a severely divided country like what we have, then that's worth it too. There is a follow on impact of having corporate CEOs
and business leadership endorse you and before you. Lots of employees in places like JP Morgan and City Bank and places like that, if they think their bosses are signed on to your philosophy and believe you're good for their company, they'll be more likely to vote for you. It is a fantastic way to try and garner votes. There are tens of thousands of finance employees in Arizona alone, that could shift the outcome of that election if they voted
their company logo. So the reality is it has a lot of follow on consequences, and the Republican Party has not really done much to reach out. We've become sort of the party of anti corporate behavior, and I think that has given an opportunity for the Democrats to exploit it.
Well, Genie, it raises the question, though, if there is an opportunity to be exploited, why not be more forward about it. The operative word in this Wall Street Journal headline that Joe mentioned is that this is an undercover push. Is that because this also could risk backfiring among more liberal Democrats.
Yeah, I think Democrats have long had that concern. If you go back to two thousand and sixteen, you know, Hillary Clinton's speeches got a lot of co bridge. Some say it hurt her in the populist realm, and that's part of why, you know, somebody like Bernie Sanders was so popular in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. So I think there is still some of that concern amongst Democrats
out there. I don't know how private I would agree with the Wall Street Journal that these really were I mean, you know these are you know, in many cases easy to find publicly that she has been doing this, and let's face it, people are going to follow the trends. So when Donald, when Kamala Harris the takes the head of the party and finally gets the nomination, people CEOs, people on Wall Street, they too are reading these polls. They see the momentum and they don't want to be
left out of a swing towards Kamala Harris. So, you know, I think it's a reflection of the amount of attention and momentum she's had on her side, and you know that energy is going to drive money, and it's certainly driven money towards Kamala Harris. I'm not convinced yet. It's not a drug on her, but I'm not convinced yet it's going to turn into votes that she needs. But it certainly doesn't hurt her. It's a help, to say the least.
Well, we're having this conversation as the two running mates prepare for their big debate next week. Of course, a lot of things are happening at once here and it's really interesting to see this come together. We understand Pete buddhaj Edge has been playing jd Vance for Tim Walls in his preparations. Now, The New York Times says Representative Tom Emmer majority whip in the House is playing Tim
Walls in jd Vance's preparations. They've been doing a lot of these rick at jd Vance's house, apparently in Cincinnati. It's inside his home and in online sessions to get ready. What's the most important thing Tom Emmer can teach jd Vance in the next week.
Yeah, I think jd Vance has got a personality problem, right. I mean, Tim Wallas is a very friendly, soft spoken guy who can get excited and spin a phrase and has dubbed jd Vance weird, which caught on pretty hard. And that's a hard thing to guard against. You can guard against an attack on taxes or an attack on foreign policy, and you can get all the political stuff right, and then all of a sudden, the personality clash and you look mean, or you look weird, or you look
somehow disconnected. And I think that's the biggest concern. I think if I were in the debate prep with jd vances like, we've got to make you equally normal as Tim Wall, So be careful what you say. And how you say it.
Well.
And of course we know we will get this debate next Tuesday. We don't know if we'll get another debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Although Harris over the weekend said she has agreed to another debate on CNN on October twenty third, challenging Donald Trump to do the same, although he has said this weekend that it's too late.
The voting is already cast if it happens on October twenty third, Genie, if you're a betting woman, are you betting that Donald Trump actually changes his mind and joins her on that stage.
I'm hoping, you know that, Kayleie, I'm really hoping. I think it's very possible.
You know.
I think if the polls don't look like they are in Donald Trump's favor, he will change his mind without blinking an eye. And the late aspect of this is a bit head scratching, because four years ago the debate was October twenty second, So the idea that October twenty third is too late, you know, that's not actually reflective
of reality. He did it last time, He could do it again, and he will if strategically it's to his benefit, and of course Kamala Harris jumping on CNN because she doesn't want to be out fox to no pun intended and have Donald Trump ask her for one on the buck. So there you go, it's all in the game.
Well done, Jeannie, that was pretty good.
Rick.
Do you do an empty chaired debate? If you're Kamala Harris and you have an oppportunity a network wants to give you an hour, you take it right.
Yeah, you take the hour as a regular interview. That's been number before. You don't have the empty chair, but you get an hour free airtime, and that close to the election, that's golden. That's a lot of money would have to be spent to buy that airtime. So I think that she ought to try and keep the heat on. I love debates late in the game. This thing needs a change.
We need some excitement in this campaign. We just haven't had enough.
And yeah, look, if Donald Trump thinks the week before that he has a problem and needs the curate and the only way to do it is a debate, yeah, he'll show up. He has absolutely no shame whatsoever. We should have learned that by now, so you know, hold your breath and maybe we'll have another clash of the Titans.
All right, holding our breath indeed, Rick Davis of stone Court Capital and Jeanie Shanzino the Center for the Study of Democracy and Congress. Thank you, senior Democracy fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency.
It's a big business card.
I don't know it's Monday. We appreciate our signature pulled up panel as always. Thank you so much for joining us. And of course we're all going to be together in New York next week for that best presidential.
Debate special coverage. Let's take them one at a time. Rick and Genie will certainly be there. We'll have that debate for you right here.
I'm Bloomberg.
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