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The swing we did see to some degree among black men for Donald Trump, but most specifically a big swing in the Latino population of this country.
Yeah, it's a big reason we can, i think, say with credibility why Donald Trump won. The fact of the matter is, you're right. Black men in the end did break largely for Kamala Harris, but she had lower shares of each constituency than Joe Biden did in twenty twenty, and when you put it together, that was enough.
To be a problem.
Indeed, Well, we want to focus more on what's happening with the Latino vote and overall what the future of this administration and potentially the House could look like, and turn to Republican Congressman Carlos Jimenez. He represents Florida's twenty eighth district, which includes part of Miami Dade County, and he used to be the mayor of that county. Congressman, thank you for being here on balance of power. First of all, congratulations on your reelection. If we could just
focus on Miami Dave. Donald Trump just became the first president to win that county, which has a population that is overwhelmingly Hispanic. Some seventy percent of the population is Hispanic. He won it the first time any Republican has done so since nineteen eighty eight. What does that capture to you? And do you think that is a permanent switch or just a moment in time.
I think it's a permanent switch.
I think Hispanics here are moving more and more to the right, wive because the Republican Party represents the values of Hispanics, where people of faith, were people of family, hard work. We believe in the American dream. We don't believe in in oppressive government or government or government regulations.
Those are the things that we believe in.
And so that's where the Republican Party is, you know right now. And frankly, the Democrat Party has left left many Hispanics in their wake as they've gone more left and left and left. Also remember that many Hispanics here in Miami Dade County in particular, have fled socialism. We've fled pictorial regimes that such as Cuba and Venezuela and Nicaragua.
And when we see the Democrat Party kind of embracing those regimes and also embracing some of their ideology, that's what caused the Democrat Party really to lose so many followers here in Miami Dade County. We've also seen the Independence swinging to the right too, and it's this trend has been going on for the last eight years.
So walk back with us.
Two weeks Congressman was the whole uproar over the bad jokes told at Madison Square Garden referring to Puerto Rico as a floating island of garbage.
You know what came from that?
We spent an entire week of talking about garbage on both sides of the isle.
Was that a media narrative?
What about the corrosive effect that we all heard this would have on the Republican ticket?
Look, hispanics, We're not dumb.
That was a bad joke by an idiot comedian in Madison Square Garden.
But that's all it was, all right?
You know, President Trump certainly doesn't believe that What was far worse was when Joe Biden, the President of the United States, called everybody who supported Trump garbage that came right out of his mouth. That's far worse than once some idiot comedian said in Madison Square.
You didn't believe that we have on that.
When Joe Biden tried to rephrase that, know, I.
Think he meant it. I heard what I heard, and so and so.
Did you know over one hundred million people they heard what they heard too. And so the fact that he was trying to clean it up, and then he had some people trying to help him clean it up, that's also an insult to us.
Okay, we're not dumb.
We understand what he said, we understand why he said it, and so that was an insult to now the majority of the American people, obviously because Donald Trump not only won the electoral College, he also won the popular vote. And so obviously we didn't believe that retraction as we didn't pay much attention to some you know, comics comments about Puerto Rico.
There.
It wasn't it wasn't funny, and certainly, you know, it did not reflect our ideals. You know, Puerto Rico, they're great patriots in Puerto Rico. I have a number of friends that are from Puerto Rico. I love Puerto Rico, and so that was just a stupid thing to say by an idiot.
So that's what was heard by you and others last week. I'm interested as well, Congressman, and what you heard this morning the Speaker Mike Johnson, of course, had a call with members, and I'm wondering what projections you are getting from what is currently the majority leadership as to whether or not it is the expectation that you will stay a member of the majority.
Yeah, we are the leader, and also all the leadership there expects that we will attain at least two hundred and eighteen and that we'll go beyond that. And so they're pretty confident in that number. And so you know what, I've seen nothing that they said, you know, gave me rise for concern at this point. I certainly would love
to have a bigger majority. First of all, it's the majority, because the majority in the House is everything, even if it's one seat majority, it's everything, and we need to have the majority. But they're confident that we're going to attain it, and so I will I have confidence in my leadership, and I believe the leave. I believe that we will be the majority party in the House.
Well before we get to the next session. Let's finish this one, Congressman, what's this lame duck session going to look like? There were questions about, for instance, an emergency supplemental for natural disasters the hurricanes that we saw. How about the farm bill? What can you get done before the end of the year.
Hopefully we can get done a lot. I'd love to get the Farm bill through.
Look, we're gonna have to obviously talk to the President electa and what and what the administration wants us to do. But we need to pass a continuing resolution to keep the government open.
I am, I am. I have high confidence who we will be doing. That question is how long?
I'd say probably into the March April timeframe. That way, it gives us enough time, if we're in the majority, to put together the packages that we need to send on to the White House to start turning this country around and start implementing the.
Policies of Donald J. Trump.
And so you know, we're going to be working arm in arm, hand in hand with the Senate now that we control also the Senate. Look, we now, if we control the House, the Senate, and the White House, we have no more excuses. We need to get to work. We need to deliver for the American people. We need to give them. We need to give them a break on high prices. We need to restore our energy independence and energy dominance.
We need to.
Restore our place in the world, and so all those things we need to do and do it quickly. And we have to tackle the long term problem of our debt. The national debt is running out of control, and our interest payments are higher than our payments for our expenditures on national defense.
We need to get that under control.
Well, I'm so glad you brought that up, Congressman, because as you discussed delivering for the American people, I do wonder what the debt and deficit in mind. If you think it's realistic to deliver on all of the promises that President elect Trump has made when it comes to taxes and all of the tax breaks he would like
to offer, it is likely to be deficit additive. And I wonder if you think that actually may make it more difficult to work it straight through even a Republican House of Representatives.
Oh, we need to look at the revenue side of the House too. It's not just the deficit side of the house. I've always said that there's two sides to this. There's spending cuts that we have to implement, but there's also revenue enhancements. One thing that the President has alluded to already is that we have natural resources underneath our feet. For some reason or another, this administration has really hampered
our oil and gas exploration and utilization. We should not only just be energy independent, which apparently we're not right now. We should be an energy dominant. We should be using it to help our allies around the world and also to balance the the imbalance and trade that we have. And so, yeah, it's gonna be difficult to implement all
these things, but we need to find the solutions. Look, though, one of the things that the President is really proud of is that when he makes a promise, he keeps it. And so I'm sure that he's gonna come to us and said, I made these promises, We're going to have to find a way to make sure that it doesn't
increase the deficit. And I believe you know, here's what I think will happen because of these promises, We're going to have more growth, economic growth, and when you have economic growth, you also have additional revenue into the coffers, just like what happened during the Reagan era where we had more money coming in even though there was some tax cuts implemented by by the Reagan administration.
Yeah, we had a long conversation with Joe Lavornia about that right around this time yesterday, Congressman, just about a minute left. What'll happen in the energy market under the Trump administration? Knowing that we're already at a record level of production, Now, how do you compel oil producers to pump more having seen them burn so many times in
the past, and knowing their pension for returning cash to shareholders. Yeah, no, Look, we need to have a stable energy policy and not one that goes up and down and up and down depending on the administration. And that's something that we're going to have to do with legislation. The executive branch hamper's production or can increase production simply through the stroke of
a pen executive action. We need to make sure that those that are investing in energy production are sured a the long term investment is going.
To pay off.
What we need to do is actually start to supplant Russian oil and adversarial oil with American oil, you know, the Iranian sh you know, we should be able to put sanctions on Iranian oil, Venezuelan oil, because those are our enemies and we need to start sanctioning them so that we deny them the funds that they need in order to wreak havoc around the world. That's one of the things I would love to see the United States do.
Great to have you with us this week, Congressman, let's meet up when we're back in Washington. Congressman Carlos Himenez of Florida, the Republican with us on Ballots of Power.
I'll I'm much more ahead.
On Bloomberg TV and radio.
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It, of course, is two days after the election in the US, in which Donald Trump will become the forty seventh president of the United States, something that was acknowledged today in a Rose Garden speech by President Joe Biden, who shared that he had called Trump to congratulate him on his victory and has pledged to oversee a peaceful
transition of power. It was similar in language to what we heard from the loser in this presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris, who delivered her concession speech at Howard University yesterday.
The come of this election is not what we wanted, not what we fought for, not what we voted for. While I conceide this election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign. I spoke with President elect Trump and congratulated him on his victory. I also told.
Him that we will.
Help him and his team with their transition and that we will engage in a peaceful transfer of power.
Now that we've heard from both Harris and Biden, we assemble our signature political panel. Rick Davis is with US partner at Stone Court Capitol Republican Strategists, alongside Geenie shanz, No, Democratic analyst and political science professor at Iona University.
Great to have you both with us. Here.
Joe Biden said, we have legislation we passed that's just now only really kicking in. When he spoke in the Rose Garden, he seemed to suggest that we were just getting to the good part, as he's now leaving the building and Democrats are largely blaming him today, fairly or not for the losses that Democrats incurred on Tuesday night. The idea is if he had simply left the year earlier, everything would have been different.
Are they right about that?
Yeah, it's been sort of ugly to see on the Democratic side, but not unexpected. There's a lot of blame going on. You know, I think Joe Biden does own some criticism for this, but you know, the blame doesn't fall squarely on anyone. Either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. Democratic Party contributed to all of this. I mean, just
one example. When you know seven out of ten Americans tell you they are not happy and think we're on the wrong track, it's probably not a good idea either to run the incumbent at eighty years old, or to choose his vice president and hoister on the American public and expect them to feel differently. So today Joan Cayley, I am saying that Kamala Harris is looking more and
more like Hubert Humphrey, and that is not a good look. So, you know, nothing to do with what she's done, but the process by which Democrats did this, it's not a surprise that this happened, and so you know, we have to think hard about how we move forward. But we know now this is not the way you don't put somebody on a ticket when people are this unhappy without a betting process in terms of a primary.
But it's not even just about the presidential outcome. Brick this election bought brought a rebuke of Democrats all up and down the ballot. They have lost the Senate. The majority still has yet to be decided with a few outstanding races, and they very well could have lost their ability to retake control of the House.
Well, I think you have to assume that right now the Republican Party is the majority party in the United States. Senator Holly said about a year and a half ago, when the Trump campaign was just starting up, that the Republican Party is the party of the working class, multicultural
voters of America. And you would thought he was talking about the Democratic Party from you know, ten years ago, and so I think you can lay the blame all you want, obviously planning to go around, and I feel bad that people go through that because having been the victim of losing campaigns, it's never fun. But the reality is there's been a realignment going on since twenty fifteen that the Democrats have done virtually nothing to even abate
rather than turn around. And so Republicans really are the working class family party. If you look at the data, Donald Trump significantly increased his share of the vote and
working class counties all across the country. But what has also happened, and it's not attributable to any one decision or any one candidate, is that he's made inroads into traditional Democratic constituencies, primarily because he was able to show that he could offer another alternative having been president and actually having benefited these constituencies like you know, young working
class blacks, young working class Hispanics. I mean, you know, when you look at it, it's an economic model, not a cultural model that has shifted this campaign.
Well, it's interesting, Genie, because I'm hearing a lot of people say today, where were you guys for the last year. How come we weren't having this conversation before Tuesday? Hindsight's twenty twenty, right, everybody's an expert in a political analyst this morning. But should there have been a more concerted look at this issue. We've been talking about inflation since Joe Biden walked into the Oval office. How else should we have been looking at.
This Well, you know, so many of the assumptions are turnout in the aftermath, as you mentioned Joe to be wrong. I'll just give you one example. The Democrats were banking on abortion. They were encouraging these states to have abortion initiatives on the ballot, and the idea was that you would go into the polling booth, particularly as women, and you would vote for the right to choose, and then while you were there, you would vote for Kamala Harris.
And that's not what happened. I mean, it's a good thought, But what seems to have happened as we look at the exit polls is women did what a lot of Americans did, which is they said, yeah, I can do two things at once. I can go for this ballot initiative, support the right to choose, and you know what, then I can also protect my economics by voting for change and Donald Trump, and so you have both of these
things going on. And I think one of the big mistakes that both parties make, but the Democrats made it a lot here is to assume that because you are a woman, or because you are a Latino, because you
are black, you think and believe a certain way. And in doing that, they put aside how important the economy is for all voters and how important it is for people not to be feeling like they are getting quite I'm sorry to say this, but screwed as they go into the grocery shop or get gas and everything else. So you know, people were unhappy with this economy. It
impacts all of us. Just because I'm a woman doesn't necessarily mean I cast that aside to save a right to choose first election since you know, since the over attorney at grows. So we're just learning some of these lessons. But the assumptions are dead wrong, and it's stereotypes and that's problematic. Democrats do it a lot well.
And it is worth pointing out while many states that had abortion on the ballot in this cycle did protect those rights, there were states that did not including in Florida the abortion amendment not making the sixty percent threshold in that state, even though it did win the majority of the vote. But that points us to Rick that there were other things on the ballot and that we did see some split ticketing, including potentially in a lot
of these battleground Senate races. We know the Democrats won in Michigan and Wisconsin, we're still waiting to find out both Pennsylvania and Arizona. Right now, in Pennsylvania we're within four tenths of a percentage point, Dave McCormick up ninety eight percent of the votes in In Arizona, not as much of the vote in we're moving slower. There's sixty nine percent, but Reuben die goes up on Kerry Lake
by two points. Is there any chance that the person who is behind right now in those races is going to be able to pull out the victory.
Yes, I think probably more so because it's so much closer in Pennsylvania, as you point out, less outstanding, but thirty thousand votes separate the two, and so the reality is there's a good chance from what I can tell in the voting patterns that McCormack's got a legitimate shot at being a United States Senator.
This year a little trickier in.
Arizona. It's all sort of concentrated in one place. Maricopa County. Meericopa County, we know takes a while to count their votes. They love to be the center of attention. Good news this year is there's no reporting of irregularities or corruption or anything like that. So I suspect that once we get a final count from Maricopa County, it'll be a
settled case in Arizona. But I think there's an outside chance that Kerry Lake could overcome Ruben by Diego to become a center, but much less so, only because it's a much bigger bogie. Two percent of the vote is still she's lagging behind, and she'd have to get a real big majority over sixty percent of the outstanding votes in Maricopa to be able to overtake that. So that's a heavy lift. We've seen it happen before, and maybe it will come in in sort of the later ballots
that that absentees are done. But I would say just one thing, I don't think we should underestimate the habit of Trump voters to bullet vote, especially the early voters who were putting it on a ballot and sticking in the mail. They may or may not vote a full ballot, and we've seen this kind of sort of you know, split ticket voting in the past. Although the numbers don't add up right, there are more votes for president in the state than there are for the Senate candidates.
We've got a statement, by the way, from the Bob Casey campaign in Pennsylvania suggesting we could be headed for a recount out here. As they write quote yesterday, the vote margin shrunk by fifty thousand. This race is now within a half point the threshold for automatic recounts in Pennsylvania, with tens of thousands more votes to be countered. We're committed to ensuring as you would imagine the rest of the line here, it ends by saying Senator Casey will be re elected.
I don't know how long.
That's going to take, Rick, but we could be talking about recounts within a couple of days here, Kaylee, We've got a lot more to follow after our signature panel. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzana will be back with us in our second hour here on balance of power.
Indeed, and we also while we're here on balance of power, have to keep track of the markets because this is Bloomberg TV and Radio. And obviously we saw a massive move yesterday that first day that we knew Donald Trump would be the forty seventh president of the United States. You're seeing some of those trends continue today in Bloomberg's Abigail Dolittle is following them for US.
Abigail, it is pretty incredible, Kelly, to see the gains that we do have for the S and P five hundred and the Nasdaq. That S and P five hundred up the better part of one percent, the Nasdaq up more than one percent, so after yesterday's big rat on the certainty that we're seeing, or the rally, the relief rally that we're seeing around the certainty of who the president elect is, over the last three days, the S and P five hundred up significantly, up the better part
of five percent. That is the best three day stretch going back all the way to November of twenty twenty two, and again having to do a certainty, but it also has to do with the Trump trade, the idea that taxes may be cut and tariffs and protectionist policy. So when we put this into the perspective, some pockets of that Trump trade may be reversing a little bit today. But yesterday's gains for Donald Trump are really pretty impressive.
Outshadowing or shadowing, I should say. The twenty sixteen gains, the S and P five hundred up two point five percent. That's the best day after a presidential election ever. So investors really cheering that the Russell two thousand and up nearly six percent, Bitcoin higher. So this is the market's way of saying that they too are voting for Donald Trump, that they're happy that Donald Trump is the president elect.
Fifteen handles on the vix abigail or we get a little too relaxed he or too comfortable.
Good question, Joe, because about a week ago it was closer to a twenty two, and at that point you had some investors playing for volatility, playing around the uncertainty, others hedging. Now though not all that nervous investors not so nervous. What we do have up later today, if you can believe it, I feel as though it's really getting lost in the dust. Of course, the big FED meeting, it's pretty much baked in though that they are going to cut by about one quarter of a basis point.
It's hard to imagine that they would throw some kind of a curve wall. But into that meeting we do see a reversal of yield coming in. Also that dollar in. But yeah, that vix at fifteen seems as though investors are back kind of just in the saddle of going along and.
Happy elbows up on the barrel. Bloomberg's Abigail do little thank you, Abigail reminds us. Of course, less than an hour from now, we'll be in our special FED coverage, Kaylee, not only the announcement but the news conference, which I'd be very curious here today. I don't know what Michael McKee has up his sleeve, but I suspect we could have some questions about politics.
Well sure, and especially what the political outcomes mean for monetary policy outcomes. If we're looking down the barrel of potentially inflationary policy in a second Trump administration that will impact presumably the trajectory of interest rates. And also Chairman Powell might have some questions about his job security as he goes to the podium later today. There's a massive question about what the FED will look like under Donald Trump.
Yeah, I thought Trump told us he was going to mix messages.
Come on board the Business Week Interview. We'll have a lot more ahead. Andy Smith from New Hampshire up next on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Can't Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo CarPlay and then froud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Joining us now is Andrew Smith. He is director of the Survey Center at the University of New Hampshire. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio, Andrew. If we look at New Hampshire specifically, it's a state that Kamala Harris won. There was some question earlier in the cycle as to whether or not a Democrat would be able to win New Hampshire if it were up for grabs for Donald Trump. But you also had a Republican winning the gubernatorial race. So net net, what does that say about the state?
Well, it really shows that there is a difference between the president and the governor and other elected officials. They're the two people that have to basically be administrators, the chief the chief executives of their respective electoral basis. And New Hampshire is a long tradition of electing Republicans and
Democrats and opposite parties to those positions. So if you just go back in the last twenty years, John Lynch was a four term popular governor, we're a Democrat even survived the twenty ten Republican landslide, and Chris Shanunu was
able to do that he was a Republican. He was able to survive the Democratic landslide in twenty eighteen here and so this year we have a Kelly Aot, former senator, pretty well known and liked within the state, was able to withstand the Trump win at the top of the ticket because she got a lot of that crossover vote from people that liked the way that Shanu Knew governed.
And I think governors in New Hampshire tend to govern in nonpartisan ways, much more focused on just making sure that the books balance, the taxes are kept low, in the economy's running.
So that's some interesting ticket splitting in New Hampshire. A lot of people expected to see it around the country. Andrew of course, you know, we base our assumptions on what we saw in the last election, but it actually took place there. Kelly Ayot, the Republican former senator, won her race for governor of New Hampshire even as Kamala Harris won at the top of the ticket. Is that just New Hampshire being New Hampshire.
I think there is a lot to be said for that. But you can see this across New England. Phil Scott wins again, a Republican winning an overwhelmingly Democratic New York. Charlie Baker would win in Massachusetts. Mitt Romney would win
in Massachusetts. So I think there's something that goes on in Massachusetts where you are in New England, where you've got more mainstream Republicans, kind of more traditional Rockefeller Republicans, so to speak, are able to do well even though the region and the state of New Hampshire are largely Democratic.
Well, so as we consider the wider region and the tighter margins we are seeing in twenty twenty four for the victors, at least at the presidential level. When you compare what Biden did in twenty twenty against Trump to what Harris did against Trump this time, around. I wonder if you think which of those is more indicative of the way things are going to go in the future. I guess was it just twenty twenty was a super high turnout election. There were higher vote tallies in total,
and ultimately that turn is what made the difference. Or does this suggest that we might see more repetitions of twenty twenty four in that the margins are getting tighter and tighter and tighter.
I think you could see both.
I think actually that twenty twenty was a record outcome for turnout. We haven't seen turnout like that. It was even more than the nineteen sixty election, which has always been seen in the modern times as the highest turnout election. I don't think we'll see that again. Remember that was in the midst of COVID, midst of Trump's kind of trumpet was being impeached at that time, a lot of
motivation from Republicans and Democrats to get out. This is still high turnout this year, but it's probably more down around that sixty to sixty two percent turnout when we get all the final numbers, in which I think is high but more likely to be a typical sort of a turnout as we'll see going forward.
Well, boy, there's a lot to consider here when it comes to your view in New Hampshire.
I would just love your.
Impressions broadly here as we look at the country. Andrew, You've been in the polling business for a long time and there's said to be a reckoning after every election, and I wonder what it should be this time under sampling trump tweaking the sample to reach more people who don't have landlines, young people who don't like talking to pollsters. How are people in your industry approaching this new frontier?
A thousand flowers are blooming, is what I would start off with. The whole polling industry has been going through a paradigm shift in methodology for the last five years plus, similar to what happened in the time between the nineteen sixties and nineteen seventies when we moved from in person
surveys to telephone surveys. Those work very well until the later part of the two thousand and oughts when we saw response rates really plummet, where we're getting only about five percent response rates and telephone surveys that makes them very very expensive then, and web surveys certainly much less expensive, and since that time, US and any other organizations have been experimenting with these different technologies and figuring out best
practices to use web surveys. We're going to be going forward to web surveys, whether we like it or not, because the cost difference is so great. But we as an industry are going to be looking at this very careful, carefully to see what methodologies were most accurate in predicting the elections, which didn't work, and hopefully be able to
have a more unified front. I guess going back, going up to the twenty twenty eight elections, I should say that generally speaking, the polls performed quite well in this election, despite of all the problems that we spoke about.
Well, and that's true when you kind of look across the board, not just at the presidential race, and as we look ahead to twenty twenty eight, I do wonder, Andrew, if ultimately this was mostly about Donald Trump consistently being underpulled, whether that was because of the way voters felt comfortable expressing their supporter, lack thereof of him, or what have you. But I wonder how much of these challenges are unique to this particular candidate. Who's about to start a second term.
That's all he's constitutionally allowed. He's not going to be on the ballot again in twenty eight.
Well, i'd say, first of all, the methodological challenges that we face an industry are going to continue. That said, the undercount what we would call the partisan non response that seemed to hide some Republican votes over the last several cycles that may go away in a non Trump era.
One of the things that I've seen in the research that I've been doing is that Republicans were less likely to do things such as put a yard sign in front of their yard, or put a bumper stick around their car because they were afraid their car was going to be vandalized, or even talk about their support for
Trump to families, coworkers, friends, whoever. So there is a reticence on the part of Trump's supporters to not support him, and this filts in with a sociological theory called the spiral of silence theory, which says that people are less likely to talk with a polster, but they're still going
to vote for their candidate eventually. So this may be heightened because of Trump, but we may see this going on forward I think it's something that we as researchers are going to be paying a lot of attention to.
Andrew I mentioned your governor, Alex Kelly Ayott. What about the governor about to leave the building. Chris Snino threw all of his chips on Nicki Haley and has been twisting himself into a pretzel in some cases to try to justify his support for Donald Trump. What's in his future? Is it even in politics?
I think he has a future in politics. He's quite young. He was considering actually running for president and himself in twenty twenty four, and I think that he's got that in his future to come. I think the problem that any governor has, any party member is it's very, very difficult to cross paths with the person who's at the top of the ticket. I had an old guy, an old colleague here in New Hampshire who is the chair
of the Republican Party back during the nineteen seventies. He says, it comes down to it, if you're a member of the party, this is your team. You have to support everybody up and down the ticket on your team and rationalize it why your skunk is better than the other party Skunk.
It's great to have you back with us here on Bloomberg, Andrew Director of the University of Hampshire Survey Center. That's Andrew Smith joining us from the Granite State team. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.