Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Donald Trump beats the Press as Don Junior heads to Greenland. Welcome to the fastest show in politics as the President elect at mar A Lago, tox Economy, Energy, geopolitics, windmills and home appliances. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington. Thanks for being with us on the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power. Kaylee, it was a tour de force.
He went over an hour, mused about taking over Canada and refused to rule out the idea of military force somehow to cajole Panama or Greenland.
Yeah, he described both of those as being important to the economic security of the United States, and for that reason he said he couldn't rule out using either economic or military coercion in those areas, once again threatening tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as we had already heard from him, suggesting economic force could ultimately be what merges Canada and the United States, and even threatened tariffs against Denmark if it doesn't quote unquote give.
Up green questioning whether it even has rights over Greenland, which is something that I think we can be pretty definitive about.
But he did get into the congressional agenda a bit.
We talked about a lot of policy here as well, geopolitics, and specific to Congress Kayley, the big question about sequencing. Do you do this in one big, beautiful bill? And it does seem that the President elect is open to either.
Yeah, he did suggest he likes the idea of one bill, but his mind does not seem fully made up. And we do know that he will be meeting with Senate Republican leadership here in Washington on Capitol Hill tomorrow, and it is the Senate that is advocating for a two part reconciliation package or packages. Rather, the House would like to see that as one big package. And it's to the House we go. Now, We're I'm pleased to save. Republican Congressman Mike Flood of Nebraska is joining us. He's
also vice chair of the Main Street Caucus. Congressman, welcome to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Thank you for being here. Is it main Street's view that the only way to really make sure the entire legislative agenda Donald Trump wants to get done gets done is one big bill.
Well, I would say the overwhelming majority of main Street members in our caucus would say one bill. But that's not to say there aren't a handful of folks that see value in the two bill solution. Ultimately, this is President Trump's call. We're ready to roll. I think it's important that we make this decision and then we start to plan from it because time is ticking and we need to get active on everything that we're doing as soon as possible. You know, we're gonna have a lot
of things that unfold here. We've got the Trump tax cuts expiring at the end of the year. There's really no time for delay.
Congressman, it's good to have you on Bloomberg.
The President Alex saying I don't want to see a debt ceiling default. I do want to say, see a debt ceiling extension.
How will you get to it?
Well, you know, I was talking to some of my colleagues this morning after our conference. At the end of the day. This isn't about whether or not America is going to pay its bills. America is always going to pay its bills because not dealing with the debt ceiling is a default, and a default is not good in a very major way for America, our economy.
Our markets, our position in the world.
Ultimately, I think we're going to deal with this in a way that's very responsible. This year is going to be a lot about cutting spending, and I don't know that every America knows how serious we are about doing this. I speak for a lot of members of the Main Street Caucus. I know that the House Freedom Caucus and so many other of my colleagues. We're talking about making serious funding cuts that will hopefully make these debt ceiling
discussions less relevant going forward. But certainly we're going to deal with a debt ceiling, whether it's a two year extension in an amount that meets that standard, or it wiping it away while we sort these problems out. I'm confident we're going to find a solution and it will work just fine.
Well.
Obviously, the debt sealing addition in a continuing resolution before the twenty twenty four year ended in the last Congress, Congressman what caused a bit of trouble, and the deal that Republicans reached, at least in theory, was Yes, you will get a debt limit extension that will be passed when needed this year. You will also get something to two and a half trillion dollars in spending cuts. I believe how is that possible without touching Social Security and Medicare.
Well, obviously we're going to go through the process of reconciliation.
And we spent all day Saturday at Fort McNair in here in Washington talking about what are some of the mandatory suspending expenditures that we could address, And there are a number of opportunities that we've identified outside of Social Security, which, by the way, you can't even touch Social Security and the reconciliation process, and outside of Medicare benefits provided to Americans, there are mandatory spending programs that we've identified, and I
think in the next couple of weeks, maybe in the next month and a half, the committees of jurisdiction are going to start putting forward proposals that Americans are going
to have to get their hands around. This is not going to be done without pain, And after Saturday, I went home thought about it and I said, you know what, if we're really going to tackle the deficit, there is going to be a considerable amount of tough choices we need to make, and we need to prepare Americans to confront this very serious problem that we have in spending and it will be the story of March and April when people see what we're proposing.
Well, this has already become a more serious conversation than we typically have with lawmakers about this. Congressman, so if we could get more detailed, at least in your view, where's the pain, if not at the Pentagon or to Cayley's point, entitlements.
Well, you know, there's basically twelve pages of opportunities that we looked at over the course of Saturday that come from different committees of jurisdiction. Some of them deal with the types of reimbursements we make to different types of medical providers. You know, there's a whole system out there that's been developed over the years. It's very complicated, and sometimes we treat hospitals one way and we treat private
practice physicians a different way. The reality is it's the same service both places, and so we need to have these conversations like what should the policy be as we reimburse providers. Now we're not talking about taking benefits away from Americans that need medical care, but as you'll see in the next couple of months, there's areas from the
committees of Jurisdiction, Energy and Commerce, Education, Workforce. I mean, all of these different committee chairs are working diligently and are sitting down with all of us, and that's the process we have right now. I'm going to a meeting later today in the Speaker's office and we're just talking about, Okay, how will this work, what is the timing, what committees have to be involved, and who in the conference needs to be at these meetings so that they can have
their voices heard. We have no room for error. We have to get to two hundred and eighteen votes. We can spare only one vote on a very very narrow process. So hopefully we can.
Get there.
Well.
And as we count those votes, what role are Democrats going to have to play in all of this, Congressman, Well, as.
Long as we're talking about reconciliation, obviously, if we can act as a majority in the House and our colleagues in the Senate can use the reconciliation process. This will be a very Republican driven agenda. Now, I'm under no illusions outside of reconciliation, we're going to have to find bipartisan solutions. We've only got fifty three votes in the Senate. There will be a number of opportunities for bipartisan agreement.
But as it relates to reconciliation, and here are the top and reconciliation that I think are relevant, border spending tact cuts and energy, and I'm sure there'll be other things thrown in, but that's where I think we're going.
Has anyone talked.
To the parliamentarian about this, Congressman, because there are concerns and we heard John Thune talk about this that whatever is crafted in the House could crash into a wall in the Senate where it's going to have a bird bath. The bird rule that makes it clear that if outside of budgetary items, we don't have a reconciliation bill. Are you worried that border policy may be at risk by using this method.
Well, we're pretty confident the border policy provisions that we're interested in can be in there. We talked about this last Saturday at Fark being there, we're going to be working hand in glove with John thrown over in the Senate. The Bird Rule has six different provisions that have to be followed. I cannot imagine we would pass the bill out of the House that hadn't been vetted through the Senate parliamentarian with the help of the majority leader over there.
That would be a colossal waste of everyone's time and jeopardize this entire effort. That was one of the questions that was asked last Saturday. How do we ensure that what the House does passes the muster over in the Senate. Otherwise this is an exercise and futility.
Congressman, you also have a seat on the House Financial Services Committee, so i'd like to ask you about the news we got yesterday from the Fed's Vice Chair of Supervision, Michael Barr that he does intend to step back from that role, though he will stay on as a governor. Now chair of that Financial Services Committee. Fred Schelly, your colleague, was on Bloomberg surveillance this morning. This is what he had to say about a potential replacement, and we'll have you respond.
Mickey Bowman's done an outstanding job as a governor on the Federal Reserve. She comes to the Federal Reserve with practical experience both as a bank commissioner in Kansas as well as a family connected to community banking business there in the Heartland. She's been a great voice for common sense and tailoring and regulation, and I think she would be if President Trump made that decision, that would be, in my view, a good one.
So the chairman is advocating for Michelle Bowman here. Congressman, do you also think that would be a good choice.
Well, obviously, I'm from the heartland. My state is filled with community banks, and you know, after Selicon Valley banks collapse and the FDIC rushing in and doing the right thing, and then watching a state bank collapse in Oklahoma without the same kind of attention, I think that this is a really good move for the Federal Reserve. Our nation is built on the backs of community banks, and to have someone that has that feed on the ground perspective,
I think is important. The Federal Reserve is going to play an important role in our government, especially with Donald Trump coming into the White House as a member of the Financial Services Committee. You know, Michael Barr and his Basel three and everything that's happened. We're going to turn a page and we're going to see a new Federal Reserve, hopefully a new leadership of the Federal Reserve and big things ahead.
Congressman, I know you have to go vote, and I want to thank you for joining us. Making his debut here on Bloomberg TV and radio, the gentleman from Nebraska's first district Representative, Mike Flood.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
With a lot to talk about, following our conversation with the Congressman and a more than hour long news conference from President ELEC.
Donald Trump.
Jennie Shanzano is here Democratic analyst, political science professor at Iona University, alongside Rick Davis, republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital. Rick, after what you just heard from Mike Flood, it's clear that a lot still needs to be figured out and the congressional agenda, and exactly what role of Democrats will play in it is reconciliation. They're going to be the savior that this Republican Conference hopes it will be.
Well, I think they're going to stage it is if it is their savior, right, it can you know, produce a budget. They'll probably use that platform, as we heard today both from Donald Trump and others, that you know, it could be the way we uh, you know, push
back the deficit. And and and I think it's important to note on Congressman flood statement that even though he said social Security is not subject to reconciliation, other mandatory entitlement programs are, and so food stamps and things like that all could be on this list of twelve pages
of items that the House of Representatis are using. But I but I think that you know, these are limitations, right, even though you get advantages with reconciliation, there are a lot of things you cannot do that the government still needs to do. And so we're not paying much attention to the appropriations and authorization process. And I'd love to see regular order be the way most of this stuff gets done.
Well.
And Genie Joe brought up an excellent point to the congressman, the suggestion that the parliamentarian is going to play a role here nonpartisan. Obviously, they will decide what actually constitute budget and revenue measures that can be handled under reconciliation.
And for all of the conversation we've had in recent weeks about how hard it's going to be for Mike Johnson to get this thing through a narrow majority in the House, how hard is it going to be for John Thune if he really wants to preserve the traditions of the US Senate.
It's going to be difficult, you wonder, for all of his institutional focus, and as you mentioned, preserving the traditions of the all important upper Chamber of Congress, is he tying his hands behind his back essentially by saying we will not question what the parliamentarian rules, we will abide by the filibuster. These are things that can obviously make
his job a lot easier. That said, as an institutionalist, he believes profoundly in the idea of preserving what people have always loved about the US Senate, and so he is going to try to do that. It may impede down from agenda. And you know, I thought the conversation with Representative Flood was so good because he was so sober in terms of making the point that needs to be underscored. Republicans are serious. He says about cutting spending
and that is going to require pain. And he mentioned that word pain to you both, and I thought it was so important, and he said, you know, we need to let the American people know that addressing the deficit is going to require pain. What we don't know yet is where that pain will be. And you all ask such an important question. If it's not social Security, if it's not Medicare, if it's not defense, what is it going to be? And of course we don't know that yet.
They're still just in the early stages of this, but you know, it is going to be fascinating to see how they can get where they say they're going and how they can make this happen with a president who during the campaign was promising anything butt pain for the American public, and certainly at this press conference at mar Lago today.
So you know, I can't help but.
Wonder how they get there and you know, indeed, fulfill all these promises that they've made on the campaign trail.
I'm glad you mentioned that, Genie, because I do wonder Rick if Congressman Flood is speaking Donald Trump's language there or if they're in two very different places. When it comes to the so called pain and budget cuts. A big deal has been made about dode. She says, Elon
Musk is the greatest cutter of all time. But is that the kind of a rhetoric that Donald Trump's going to be using and potentially causing blowback from the elector the people who actually enjoy the programs that we're talking about.
Yeah.
Sure, anytime you start cutting government spending, somebody is going to be impacted by that. The reality, though, is it's the right approach to take in the sense that if you lay out the idea that we're going to take some things away from people, whether it's programs inside the Education Department or Department of Energy or HHS, the reality is we got to start a program to where we
start being right sizing government. And I think Donald Trump's you know, the one thing you got to give him credit for is he'll take a loss and turn it into a win. Right, So, Okay, maybe they don't get to two trillion dollars and cuts over the federal budget in ten years. Even if it's close to a trillion, he's.
Going to declare victory.
And by the way, I have done more than most anybody else in our lifetime to sort of stem the growth of the federal government. Look, I do think the safety valve is United States Senate. I mean, whatever comes out of there will be bipartisan.
It does not.
The reconciliation doesn't trigger the you know, the filibuster. So it's just whatever, you know, you can get to fifty one and and like what has happened in the past on these reconciliation bills, the House will take the lead and fail, and Senate will come in with their own version of a bipartisan bill, and you're probably gonna wind up with Democratic votes in the House to get it done.
And by the way, applause by the White House because they just want to sign something that advances their agenda. So I think that realistically seeing something. You know, James Mahoney, our producer, said, March madness is going to be more than just basketball this year, and I think he's right. This is going to be fiscal March madness. So you know, we ought to start our own little chart to see what stays and what goes.
We love it when producer James gets a shout out, Genie, if we're talking about March madness, that's getting intoto what two months in the second Trump administration, for all of our conversation around early wins, Donald Trump might want to not are they really going to end up being all that early?
He's hoping they're early, and I think that's why we heard him again today in the press conference say he's open. You know, he prefers the one big beautiful reconciliation bill, but it has to be too. He's okay with that as long as he achieves this agenda. And I think that's what John Thune has been trying to urge the president is he can get a win on energy, which he talked again today about how that will help cut grocery prices, and he can get a win on immigration
if he does the two step approach. But of course you've got a house and Mike Johnson and Jason Smith and others saying you gotta go big, bold and one big beautiful bill, So you know, we don't know how early this is gonna be. And just to what Rick was talking about. All of those proposals that they've talked about Elon Musk, the bag Ramaswami for Doze in terms of cutting the education Department, the schedule left that doesn't begin to get us to the two trillion dollars that
they're talking about. It doesn't even get us.
Close to half of that.
They're gonna have to have big cuts, and that's what we haven't heard.
Yeah, all right, Geenie Shanzano and Rick Davis, our signature political panel.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Live from the Nation's Capital.
It is Balance of Power, the Tuesday edition, and we have breaking news as the Associated Press reports the appeals Court judge refusing to delay Donald Trump's planned sentencing on Friday. This is the New York hush money case, and one Kayley that we knew was not going to result in jail time ahead of the inauguration. That's been made clear, but one that we thought might actually move here.
Also pretty important.
This was for January tenth, by the way, yep, and the implications of presidential immunity.
Here are large.
This just happened, by the way, the Appeals court judge refusing to delay the sentencing, which we'll go on as planned on Friday.
Yeah, not just delaying the sentencing, but also refusing to vacate the verdict, because that is something that Trump and his legal team had asked for in light of the presidential immunity decision from the Supreme Court. They suggested that the case in which he was found guilty of thirty four fellow accounts should be tossed out as some of these checks, for example, that were used as evidence were written by Trump when he was sitting in the Oval office.
But the Appeals Court has not bought in to that argument in this case. So it does look with the sentencing we'll continue on Friday. Though Donald Trump is not expected to attend in person, he was given the option.
To appear virtually. That's likely how this will go.
And again, as you said, no jail time, unconditional discharge is what Judge Wan Merechan has suggested, which essentially means no punishment.
It's pretty remarkable.
Donald Trump held an hour plus long news conference at mar A Lago earlier and talked about the legal implications here, referring to his former presidency, his first term, and the good work that he says he's done with regard to the American people.
To see the.
Government weaponized against him. We'll probably hear more of that. Yeah, come Friday. He talked about a lot of things today.
He did.
He even had news broken to him because while he was in the middle of the news conference, we got the order from the judge in the document's case down in Florida, a Trump appointee, Island Cannon, who blocked the release of the report from Special Council Jack Smith. Of course, this prosecution was not going forward. In fact, Jack Smith had been found to be incons unconstitutionally appointed by Judge Cannon earlier on in the case.
So this wasn't going to proceed.
But we did think we might get an eye on all of the evidence that Jack Smith had gathered through the release of this report. Trump's team obviously had asked for that to be blocked, and at least for now they have gotten their wish on that.
Yeah.
Merrick Garland had indicated that he would allow the release of that report if it had been completed. A lot of folks thought they'd be seeing that imminently. There were headlines about this morning, Kayley, But you're right, this new order from the federal judge in Florida puts this to rest. It looks like Jack Smith is on ice for at least the next four years.
And of course all of this happening, which is days to go until Donald Trump is inaugurated, and in fact, when that sentencing hearing is held on Friday, will be just ten days and we'll be just five days out from inauguration, Joe, when the country once again is going to be facing
down some labor risk. As January fifteenth is the deadline for the international longshoremen on the ports on the East Coast, it is half of cargo volumes in the country by volume, could threaten to go on strike once more.
Remember they did so for three days in the fall, reached.
A temporary tentative deal that covered only wages, and now as talks resumed today, what they have to sort out is the issue of automation.
Yeah, there were two components to this, and I think some suggested on this program that the.
Wages might be the easy part.
Dealing with automation, for which dock workers have an extreme allergy, is another matter. They're meeting in New Jersey with about a week, as Kayley mentioned, left to hammer out a deal here and avoid a strike that would debilitate the economy. We're talking about closing down ports up and down the East coast here and the Gulf of Mexico, which Donald
Trump wants to rename the Gulf of America. There's a lot of cross current with what we're hearing about AI, about the physical AI in the words of Jensen Wong last evening, or the AI workforce as we hear from Mark Bennioff at Salesforce. The idea of automation appears to be inevitable. And it's interesting to consider that Donald Trump is joining the dock workers in this pushback.
Yeah, he has been on their side with this. I guess it becomes a question if they're actively striking when he's taking the oath of office, how he will.
That comptics would be remarked approach the issue.
And we want to get into all of this now with an expert on labor Sharon Block is with us. She's Professor of Practice and executive director of the Center for Labor and adjust Economy at Harvard Law School. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio, Sharon. When we focus on the dock workers, specifically in this issue over automation and what technology can and cannot be used at ports by the employers of these dock workers, how hard is this actually going to be to resolve?
Well, obviously, the negotiations have been going on for a while, so this is an easy issue. But this is the way to get it done, to sit at the bargaining table, let workers have a voice in the big important decisions about how these ports are going to operate going forward. But I think you know, you've hit on a really important sort of new participant at the table, and that's the incoming President Donald Trump.
And are these doc.
Workers really going to believe that he's going to continue to stand with them the way that President Biden did when they started these negotiations. I think that's a variable that none of us know exactly how that's going to play out.
Well, are we simply talking about delaying the inevitable here, or should DOC workers have some sort of claim on manual labor that cannot be replaced by automation.
You know, it's really not an either or and and you know, I think if you really dive into what the DOC workers want, and it's it's similar to what all workers who are facing technological change to their.
Jobs want, which is to have a say in how these big changes happen, to have their interests and not just sort of the corporate bottom line or the shareholder's interests taken into account as these decisions are being made. So it's not sort of binary, yes, automation, no automation, it's how are these changes going to unfold, what's the piece of change, what kind of supports are put in place for workers whose jobs really are transformed by new technology?
And it's it's an issue that's just going to keep coming up again and again, as you know, as you highlighted, as AI finds its way into more and more workplaces. So it's really important that we have good models of these kinds of transformations happening with workers, not just to workers.
Well, when we consider the Sharon and I take your point about how it doesn't necessarily have to be something binary that technology can be incorporated while still keeping jobs intact. And yet at some point isn't the point of greater efficiency to reduce operating costs like paying more workers to
do jobs that machines could do. And I wonder how that has to be balanced here at the idea that if you want to make things more efficient, at some point that could come at the cost of jobs, And how the labor movement as a whole is going to be approaching that.
Yeah.
Yeah, if you look at the history of the labor movement, obviously they have been a part of many technological transformations. So again, it's not a matter of trying to stop increased productivity that can come from technological change. But then what what are the interests of the workers in making those transformations? Are there resources made available for workers to reskill or upskill, or to spread the work, the remaining
work among more people. Again, it's not just about do you show up one day and your job is gone, or do you keep the technology out of the out of the industry. It's having a process and giving workers a voice and having their interests be part of the strategy for bringing new technology into the workplace.
Or do we make existing workers more productive by leveraging this technology. Sharon, we hear so much about labor shortages, and you've got to as I mentioned someone like Mark Benioff talking about an AI workforce, if you can't find the people, well we've got them for you here in a different world. That doesn't necess necessarily have to mean job cuts, does it.
It doesn't.
And in fact, I think what we're seeing right now is more sort of enhancement and augmentation of jobs than actually replacement of jobs.
And you know, there are certainly.
Lots of people who will tell you that they can look into the crystal ball and know exactly sort of where this AI process is going. We don't know, but I think what we've seen so far is that it isn't a replacement story. It's an augmentation story, but it's also a surveillance story. It's also a taking humans out of management story, and I think it's really important to remember that that's also part of what we need to be dealing with as AI comes more into the workplace.
Is it harming workers Even when it's not taking their jobs, it can.
Still be.
Detrimental to the quality of jobs, or it can in fact make jobs safer. You know, if automation can do some of the parts of jobs, tasks within jobs that are particularly dangerous, that are maybe particularly tedious or monotonous, that can be a win win for both productivity for
the workers. But again, you need to employers, managers need to be listening to workers just really understand what is happening at work so that they can together figure out both what will make the job most productive, what will make it most safe, and hopefully what will continue to make it a good job.
Sharon, as we consider the year ahead of us in twenty twenty five, our colleagues have put together a great story out on the wire today from Bloomberg Law that finds two hundred large union contracts nearly are set to expire this year, covering more than one and a half million workers. Is this going to be another red hot labor year as we've experienced recently.
I mean, with that many contracts coming up, I think it will be. But you know, I'm not happy to say. I think there's a lot of uncertainty about how those kinds of negotiations are going to unfold because of the change in administrations we are coming off of or will
be coming off of. It you know, towards the end of this month, the most pro union president in our history were then will be inaugurating a president who had a record in his first term of undermining the labor movement, of undermining workers when they came to the bargaining table. And so I think that again has just added another
layer of uncertainty. And I'm very concerned. If you looked at the National Labor Relations Board under the under Trump in the first administration, this was a National Labor Relations Board which really tried to ratchet back protections for workers at the bargaining table. So I think that's going to put some added pressure on those negotiations. But again, with that many contracts up at one time, it kind of
creates its own momentum and its own dynamics. So it should be a very very interesting year to watch.
Labor, that's for sure. We'd like to stay close with you on this, Sharon. It's great to see you.
Sharon Block with us on Bloomberg TV and Radio. We appreciate the insights. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in our remaining couple of moments here, Kaylee, we should point
everyone to what's about to happen here in Washington. Roughly a half an hour from now, President Carter's remains will arrive at Joint Base Andrews, and that will tick off the beginning of a sequence of events that we're going to be tracking through the next couple of days here leading up to his funeral in Washington and return to Georgia. A horse drawn cason will carry Jimmy Carter's remains from the US Navy Memorial right on Pennsylvania Avenue into the
Rotunda and there's going to be a service there. Kamala Harris, we'll speak along with others, including John fun Yeah.
He will lie in state in the capital for nearly two full days. The public will be able to pay their respects beginning at seven pm until midnight tonight and all day tomorrow, and of course, all of this leading up to the state funeral that will be held at
the Cathedral here in Washington on Thursday morning. And we will be having special coverage of that state funeral here on Bloomberg from nine to twelve, and then we'll be here for a special edition of Balance of Power from twelve to two pm Eastern.
It will be a national day of Morning no market trading, no stocks on Thursday, but we'll have you covered here as you would expect on Bloomberg, David Gora has made his way to the Capitol, and Marie Hordern will be involved as well in.
Our special coverage. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
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