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The tenth of June. Can you believe it? It's going quick and this is the breather, the moment for Joe Biden to regroup before the next big stop on the international tour, coming off of his trip to France last week. We talked about it a lot, marking the eightieth anniversary of the D Day invasion, important meetings with President Zelenski, with Emmanuel Macron, and now it's onto the G seven. All of this with the weekend in between, that was
quite newsy from Israel to EU elections. And that's where we start our conversation with Josh Wingrove, Blueberg White House correspondent back on the beat today and joining us from the North lawn of the White House. If you're with us on YouTube, it's great to see you, Josh. Thanks for joining. What are the next couple of days look like for Joe Biden? As he prepares for the G seven. The stakes seem to be rising even as he makes his way toward this trip.
Yeah, Joe, good afternoon. He'll come back later today. He has a Juneteenth concert here this evening. But all eyes really are going to be on that trip later in the week, and whether they can sort of make headway, in particular on the question of seized Russian assets and is there any way to essentially monetize them somehow to get Ukraine billions in aid sooner rather than sort of waiting for these processes to drag out. There's been a lot of disagreement on that, but it seems like they've
come to some sort of agreement. President Biden saying over the weekend after a meeting with French President Emmanuel mccarnel that he the two had discussed and they'd come to some sort of understanding. So we'll be looking at that. And in some ways this is because this G seven is poised to maybe change quite a bit. The elections that we had in Europe, of course, have sent a signal both in France and Germany about voter moods there.
We've got elections in the UK later this year in the US, maybe one in Canada and the next year or so, so a lot of change maybe becoming a lot of these leaders might be swapping out. Of course, Donald Trump is looming in the offing, and they can sort of stock the cupboard a little bit on Ukraine aid that will sort of, you know, maybe tie the hands a little bit of or try to people that
come after. So you might call this a little bit of Trump proofing maybe, But of course Biden wouldn't see it that way because he intends on being here in a second term, so he would dispute that nstrualization.
Well, you know, tell me more about the seizon of Russian assets or more of the caching in of Russian assets and sending that money to Ukraine. Because the President signed into law something called the Repo Act and got a lot of debate here on Capitol Hill, and the anale is that that's great, but most of the money is in Europe, and so we can't do a lot without the cooperation of our European allies. Does that begin to clarify at this G seven?
We think so, although the exact terms remain unclear, and it might not necessarily be clear by the time the G seven wraps up and the issue their communicator, but it looks like that communicate will have at least a top line commitment to something. The latest plan has been revolving around the either the US alone or the US and some other countries offering tens of billions in funding as a loan to Ukraine securitized essentially by these holdings.
Now the math on that gets complicated, the rules get complicated, and whether that's going to Congress or not, what guarantees Europe can legally provide when they've got six month renewals
of sanctions. It's messy, but it seems like they're getting somewhere. Essentially, this has been the US pressing to do something and the Europeans being hesitant for a range of reasons, among them legal ones, and of well, if we sort of tie up these assets by some sort of complex funding model and then we need to release them as part of say a peace deal, where does that leave us. So it does look like they're going to have progress on this one. That's a real top line. Another one, Joe,
that we're watching for some action on China. We saw that with the G seven finance ministers in their meeting. We think that the leaders will sort of sing a United tune when it comes to warning about China overcapacity and the risk of Beijing essentially dumping its way to an economic recovery. So we'll be watching for that as well. But those are the big ones, I think broadly, though,
it's just going to be a show of unity. Is echoing some of the themes we saw last week with the President's D Day visit, and some of those that I expect to see a month or so here in Washington at the NATO summit.
Just in our last minute here, Josh, the President's also got Benjaminett Yahoo on the line, presumably the Secretary of State. Back in the Middle East here, I believe it's trip number eight, and there are questions about whether we are further away now from a ceasefire than we were before these hostages were rescued over the weekend in a raid included the deaths of more than two hundred Palestinians.
Yeah, right now, it's up in the air where that's gonna Where the US views things right now. They have always said that they are waiting sort of on a formal response from hamas like a written response on the offer that Biden outlined about ten days or so ago. We just don't know. Typically before trips we do get briefings on this. Probably the National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan
would be a candidate to do that. So if he is to speak to the press or speak publicly before this trip to the G seven, I'm sure, of course Top of Mind will be the latest on this. So we're waiting and seeing, but this remains a fraught one, of course.
Joe, Josh. Great to have you, as always, Josh Wingrove, Bloomberg White House correspondent with us from the White House on a sunny Monday here in Washington as the President gets back to it in advance of the G seven, and we add the voice now of Christopher Smart, a conversation we've been looking forward to with a voice of experience. He's managing partner of our growth the Strategic Advisory forman
was senior economic advisor in the Obama White House. Christopher, we just wrapped a conversation with Josh Wingrove talking about a very dangerous world that Joe Biden is operating in at the moment, and I love to start with you on Israel and your thoughts on what was quite a weekend here with not only the mission to rescue hostages, but Benny Gant's decision to step down. Is a cease fire suddenly on the back burner.
Well, I think it is, at least for the next two days and maybe weeks. It's always an understatement to talk about Israel the Middle East in general and say it's complicated, but it did. It has gotten more complicated over the weekend as you as you describe. I think the ironic thing is everybody knows how this process needs to start, and everybody knows how this process needs to end, but it's very difficult to know how to get from
the beginning to the end. The beginning obviously has to be a ceasefire, and I think it's been pushed back maybe a matter of days, maybe a matter of weeks, just in the in the events over the weekend.
The process needs to end.
I think in a grand agreement that is sort of part of everybody's talking points. That would include Palestinian governance that does not include Hamas that it would include a more centrist Israeli government. It would include importantly Saudi recognition of Israel, which would create a regional buy in to a peace process. And then lastly, you know, what's very easy to say and very difficult to implement, is a
two state solution for this for Israel, Israelis and Palestinians. It's, as I say, it's very easy to say, very easy to describe, and I think it's very easy to get buy in all around for that end point, but it is a very big question about how we get from here to there.
The US asking the UN Security Council now to vote on this latest resolution for a cease fire in Gaza, does that mean anything to Benjamin that Yahoo.
I'm not sure it means anything to Benjamin that Yahoo, But I do think it means something more broadly to an Israeli political class that sees itself much more isolated in the world, that sees the endgame in Gaza as much more complicated. You know, for example, what does it really mean to get Hamas completely out of Gaza. That's a very difficult thing to describe and to to.
Plan for the day after.
What it does do, importantly, I think for President Biden it allows him to go to the G seven meetings later this week much close, much more closely aligned with Europeans and the Japanese Prime Minister for pushing this, pushing a cease fire forward, And I think that's very helpful for him and should be helpful for getting us to that next step in Israel.
I wonder your thoughts, Christopher on now eighth trip, an eighth tour through the Middle East by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Is this helpful? Is he helping to bridge the gap? Does that presence mean something? Or is he somehow lowering the value of these trips by going so often?
Well, I think he's got a long way to go to catch up with Henry Kissinger in his Middle East diplomacy. But I think these meetings are very important because the very fact that the US Secretary of State continues to talk to all sides, continues to bring messages back and forth, continues to look for where there may be wiggle room, where there may be room for the beginnings of an agreement. These things are never sort of completely baked and agreed.
You have to kind of find a path forward and find a moment where a potential partial temporary agreements may fall into place that allows you to build on something stronger and more lasting. But I think it is very important for him to continue these trips, and I don't think they lose value the more he is in age.
Well, as Joe Biden prepares for the G seven later this week, the headline from over the weekend and EU elections says it all on the terminal, mccron and Schultz get trounced by far right in EU elections. That has been the headline, largely by the media. Europe tilts right. What does it mean for Joe Biden's conversations later this week.
Well, I would actually just take a quick step back and say the real headline this weekend is that, following the eightieth anniversary of D Day celebrations, three hundred million Europeans got to go to the polls and hold free, fair elections on Parliament, that is, governing increasingly important policy issues for the continent on trade, on competition, and increasingly
on foreign policy. So I know that's not the headline, but I think it is worth taking a step back before we jump into the details to keep your perspective on that. The bad news, of course, well, I'll have an another good news headline, which is the Center seems to have held the coalition of parties from the center of right that have generally supported current President Versul vander Lyon looks like it is emerging quite strong from these elections and that she will continue most likely to be
the leader of the European Commission. And so that also is good news for Europe that remains committed to Ukraine support, remains committed to further integration. Now to your point about weakened leaders in Germany and France, those are the two biggest economies in the European Union, those are the drivers of European integration, and both of them, as you say, have emerged quite badly injured from these results. Olef Schultz has another year and a half roughly to go before
he needs to call an election. President Marcroan surprised us all by calling his own election. He remains in office for another three years, but I think he feels the need to really shake things up. It's a big gamble in France, which is seeing its own financial situation begin to deteriorate. It was downgraded, its debt was downgraded last week, and.
The prospects of.
A new government that takes control of that episcoal path look dim right now. And that's why you've seen the
markets sell off quite quickly. For President Biden to get back to your question, I think you know he'll most likely ignore these near term results and focus on these longer term issues of agreement with European leaders on how to help Ukraine, as Josh walked us through before, on how to confront China and its exports that are flooding US and European markets, and I think, how to try and align themselves as closely as possible on a path forward in the Middle East.
But you said something really important there, Christopher Smart. This is why we wanted to talk to you, is for perspective. We're seeking context here at Bloomberg constantly, because you said that could be a very different headline. The Center held while we did see some voters turn to the right. I wonder to what extent you see the war in Ukraine pushing them in that direction.
I think a couple things that pushed them in that direction. One is the war in Ukraine, which is a serious security risk to the European Union. It's also a political affront. The European Union is built on the inviolability of borders and the fact that Russia felt that it could cross over into Ukraine with impunity. I think many Europeans take that sort of personally and emotionally, and I think.
That's part of it.
The other thing we don't talk about so much anymore, but is the COVID response. The EU responded very quickly and vigorously to COVID and put a lot of money into people's pockets. There are also a continuing stream of subsidies that come from Brussels to many EU countries right now. And importantly, the reason that it's important to focus on the fact that the center right held is that even these extreme right parties that we're talking about right now,
and they pose their own danger. I don't want to minimize that, but they are not running on a let's pull out of Europe platform they were the way they were a few years ago. They're running on a let's do it differently, let's bring you know, a few more powers back to the capitals. But it would be very hard for any of them to say let's pull out now. Gosh, let's see what happened to the UK when they pulled out.
That wasn't really a great story to tell. And you know, the UK is still limping from its wounds on that decision. And so I think, you know, the far right parties are very important to monitor, but they are not calling into question European institutions the way.
Well, I'm really glad we could talk to you today, Christopher Smart, many thanks for joining us here on Bloomberg. From our growth This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Rodoo with the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
As closing arguments get underway now and Hunter Biden's trial prosecutor Leo Wise, holding fourth year, talking to jurors just a short time ago, quote the evidence was personal. He said, it was ugly and it was overwhelming. Wise went on to say it was also absolutely necessary. We've heard some very personal and grizzly details over the past couple of days of testimony, and I'm glad that we could spend some time with June Grosso to give us a sense
of what might happen next in this trial. Of course, the host of Bloomberg Law, who's had her hands full, you might say recently, I'm not sure who's covering politics and the legal world. Between the two of us, June, we keep bumping into each other here. Oh, it's a pleasure though, appreciate it. Well, you know, the honor is mine. Are we going to get a verdict in this case this week?
Oh?
This week?
Yes?
I thought you were going to say today, and I was going to say maybe, maybe, not definitely this week. If there's not a verdict by this week, then the jury is hung and the judge will give them what's called I've talked about it before, an Allen charge or a dynamite charge, to go back and try to come to a decision, you know, think about what other people are saying. So but yes, definitely a verdict this week.
Of course, as we go through the closings here, we're reminded of everything that we learned so far, and there's been a lot of writing about just how difficult and personal this has been for the Biden family. But can you bring our listeners back to the table here. They've heard a lot about laptops, they've heard a lot about business dealings with the Biden family. We're talking about a
gun case here. It's actually pretty narrow considering some of the other allegations and the tax trial that awaits Hunter Biden after this.
It is very narrow. But because the prosecution is saying that Hunter Biden was addicted to drugs and so he should have filled out this form. It's all about this checking this one box on the gun application for in the federal form, are you addicted to drugs? Are you using drugs? So the prosecution is saying, because of that he should have checked that he shouldn't have gotten a gun, and the three felony charges all relate to checking that box.
But the prosecution has brought forth and you mentioned they said they had to bring it all. I'm not so sure because a lot of it, also, I think, was to just dirty up Hunter Biden here to show that he was not only addicted to drugs, but he took his family and members of his family down with him. They called ex wife, they called ex lovers, They talked about his drug fueled lifestyle. They showed pictures of him half naked with a crack pipe, and they played excerpts
from his memoir. So a lot of it I think was not necessary. And they still don't have any one who can say that on the date that he filled out that form they saw him taking drugs or there's any evidence at on that specific date. There's a break with the defense or the defense says they have to show that it that he was actually on drugs. Then that's what that form seems to indicate. And the form is kind of ambiguous, and the prosecution says, no, we don't have to show that it was on that date.
We just have to show that he was a drug user. So you know, it's it must be a tough and as you mentioned, the first lady was there nearly every day. She went one day she flew to France to be with the president during the D Day celebrations, and then you know, she came back. So there's been a lot of family at that at the trial to support Hunter.
Biden sure has Well, we'll talk again, I know when this goes to the jury. But I have to ask you as well about Donald Trump's legal journey, which brings him into a virtual meeting today. I think if it were you and I we'd have to show up in person, but a virtual meeting with his probation officer. What is the interview going to include.
Jim, Well, so this is it will be virtual and his attorney is going to be present as well, which is also not usual for these kind of probation interviews. And NBC is reporting just for a little fact that it's going to be a female probation officer who's doing the interview with him. This I think will be unlike any other probation interview because normally what they're doing is trying to get background facts. You know, first, is there
any criminal history, what's your family background? Are their family members to support you? You have any addiction issues, any physical problems, all those kinds of things that we know, and the judgment already knows about Donald Trump. But then there's the question of whether he'd be and this is
sort of an overarching theme amenable to supervision. So does he accept the fact that he was you know, that he was prosecuted and convicted by a jury, and does he accept it and will he follow the rules if he is given probation? So there also we know the aggravating and mitigating factors, and so does the judge he violated the gag order? More than ten times, you know. And he has said things you know, back and forth about the judge which the judge won't take into account.
But still it shows that he doesn't does it hasn't respected the criminal justice system, as we've seen time and again. So I don't think that this is really going to be a help to the judge as much as if the judge didn't really know him. But the judge knows. We all know these different facts about him. So it'll be we won't find out unless the defense releases it, because it'll be sent to the judge directly, and it usually isn't revealed until later.
Fascinating, and you're right, his lawyer, Todd Blanche will be on the call to think it's a zoom meeting. June Grosso, great to see you. I'll be listening later, of course, the host of Bloomberg Law and Bloomberg Radio six pm Eastern time. If you know what's good for you, I've got lots of cover every day with June. My goodness. As we assembled our panel here, Genie Shanzano's back with us.
You better believe Democratic analysts Bloomberg Politics contributor, senior Democracy fellow with the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress and Chapein fay Is with a Republican strategist managing director at ACTIM. Great to see both of you, and thanks for joining Chapin. What do you think about the optics here? I don't know if this thing is going to go public or not, but I mean, I
keep hearing nobody cares. I've got a cbsu Go poll today says twenty eight percent of likely voters actually will consider Donald Trump's conviction to be a major factor in their vote. But just the sort of demeaning optics of sitting for an interview with a probation officer does it matter?
I think it matters a little bit, like that poll indicates. You know, I think a lot of this stuff is baked in. You know, we've been dealing with you know, Trump's supporters and voters have been dealing with these allegations and investigations for years now. We just went through a trial, a very public trial, where he was convicted. He's now a convicted felon, and now he has to go me with a probation officer.
You know, I don't know.
I think they're gonna I think they're gonna, you know, still call us around him. You know, I think it's already baked in. And and again you're fighting over sort of independent voters who still sort of fall down partisan
lines if they're leaners. Right, if you're thinking about voting for President Trump, you don't care that about the conviction, and you see this as a political persecution, which Hunt if you think, if you're leading Joe Biden, you know, it matters a great deal to you that that his opponent is a convicted felon. So I think, you know it will be demeaning, But I don't know, you know, one t you know.
Matter, Well, Genie, maybe I'm part of the problem here because I'm putting these both together into the same conversation. Donald Trump, former president of the United States, running for a second term, convicted felon meeting with his probation officer, versus Hunter Biden, son of Joe Biden, not running for anything, facing gun charges in this case, Should they be in the same breath.
No, you're never part of the problem. Joe Matthew just part of the solution. So you know, they are part of the y. They are part of the same conversation because you know, anytime a relative of the sitting president is, you know, being investigated or in a trial like Hunter is, it's big news. Obviously the same ghost or somebody who's leading his party the presumptive nominee. Certainly we all know
Hunter Biden is not on the ballot. I think one of the fascinating things I've witnessed on the Hunter Biden and is Donald Trump's reaction to it and the Republican's reaction to it. The rhetoric has changed. You know, we heard Donald Trump on Fox News a few days ago being empathetic to the situation Hunter Biden finds himself in as an addict, talking about his own brothers problems with alcoholism.
You don't hear the Republicans talking as much about negatively about Hunter Biden as you did, so I think they are cognizant of the fact that so many Americans struggle with addiction, that they have not been attacking him in the way they were just a few months ago. Could that change, absolutely, But I think Democrats still trying to make hay out of Donald Trump's conviction, and we see the CBS poll around the edges, it has some impact. The twenty eight percent you talked about it, gin's up
the base for Joe Biden. But the reality is people care most about the bread and butter issues, and that's what Joe Biden needs to focus on.
Interesting rhetoric, as always, from Donald Trump in Las Vegas over the weekend, Chapin. We can talk about his references to the January sixth rioters as warriors. We can talk about a lot of the things he said about our rigged election and the border. But I'm curious your thoughts on his decision to show up in Las Vegas and propose eliminating taxes on tips, speaking of course to masses of people who work in the hospitality industry in Nevada,
and it resonated with the crowd. Smart politics, of course.
I mean, anytime you're talking about putting more money in people's pockets, it's smart politics.
You know.
That's especially when it aligns with, for the previous conversation, the main issues that people care about, right, A few people care about a few percentage points care about the conviction and Trump, and of course a lot of this the Democrats are trying to make this campaign referendum on Trump.
If this were Joe Biden, you'd call it an election you're a stunt, wouldn't you Maybe maybe I don't.
Know, but I don't I don't know. I mean, this is something I think if I think, we'd be surprised, as some of all. Joe Biden offered this because it's you know, the left and Democrats are not usually in the habit of putting money back in people's pockets by lowering taxes. But again, if if President Biden said he was in a lower taxes on you know, hospitality workers, I would support that. You know, I may call it an election year stunt, but I certainly would support the policy.
They're not mutually and by the way, the less you know, they exactly.
The last I'll say is, sorry, is everything that happens on both sides you'll see from a couple months ago through election day is going to be declared a stunt? Anyway.
Well that's the truth. And I don't know if any of that even matters, Genie, But you know, people were calling this just forgiving student loans an election year stunt. They've called the President's boarder executive action and an election year stunt, even if they agree with the policy. It's interesting here does Donald Trump have something to run on.
You know, it is something. I mean, we are going to be debating taxes twenty twenty four, twenty twenty five, in particular in Washington, d C. So this is a policy that you know, could find its way into the conversation, and I think there's going to be some pushback on it, certainly,
But this is the reality of election year politicking. And at this point, I'm thinking most Americans who want to break on anything should consider moving to these six or seven swing states because if you're living outside of those, you're not going to get much action on any of this. But move there and you get all of these kinds of things dangling. So, you know, this is the reality of our election system, which probably needs to be reconsidered. But this is where we are.
Today, Philly, Wisconsin, Michigan, money falling from the skies. It does make us think though of this idea of you know, the union vote being up for grabs in this election, Genie and Chape, and it's something that we're not done talking about here. Even as Joe Biden calls himself the most union friendly president in American history, We've seen Donald Trump do very well with the rank and file. We're just getting started on the fastest show in politics. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Evocarplay and then Roudoro with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen non demand wherever you get your podcasts. A watch us live on YouTube.
I am indeed Kaylee lines back in Washington after a weekend away, and Donald Trump also was elsewhere this weekend. Joe and Las Vegas held a big rally in what I understand was pretty incredible. Heat indeed had a specific pitch to all of the hospitality workers that inhabit the state of Nevada. No taxes on tipped income is what he was pitching.
Pitching I guess on behalf of Congress, because you'd have to have legislation there. But I guess it all feeds back into the twenty seventeen tax cuts becoming permanent, an argument that will be had here certainly if Donald Trump is elected to another term. But yeah, this is interesting. This is the stuff that is frequently referred to as an election year stunt, but it's one that certainly resonated
with the crowd. And when you consider the importance of the culinary your workers' union on the Las Vegas Strip that Joe Biden needs to win over to take that state, it's pretty shrewd. He also took a stand and on a Senate race while he was there, So we've got a lot to talk about on the campaign trail.
And did we do what you're referring to Trump endorsing retired Army Captain Sam Brown for the Senate race in Nevada over his former ambassador to isolate Jeff Gunter really interesting to.
See in the establishment move I'm not sure I want to hear more about this. We learned so much by talking to Aaron Kovey last week here on Bloomberg from the Cook Political Report, we wanted to bring her back today and get into this. Contributing author to the twenty twenty four Almanac of American Politics, Erin, It's great to see you. I wonder if we could start here on this one. Donald Trump, obviously, if he's reelected, can't just
eliminate taxes on tips. But the way this seemed to resonate with the crowd makes me wonder if this could be an effective campaign message for him. Will we hear about this for the rest of the cycle.
Hey, well, thanks for having me on.
You know, I don't know.
It seems like this is an issue that is kind of specific to Nevada voters, which obviously won't matter heading into twenty twenty four. Nevada is obviously one of the swing states that we'll be watching closely that could determine the election, but it is one state where Trump has been doing a lot better in polling. Biden narrowly won this state in twenty twenty. Clinton narrowly wanted in twenty sixteen by a slightly larger margin, and so this is one state that could certainly be an impact.
Yeah, And of course, to your point, it is a state that we will get some insight into with the results from primaries tomorrow. One of those primary races, of course, is for this Senate race. Aaron, and I wonder what you make of the endorsement that Trump gave to Sam Brown, the aforementioned retired Army captain, over someone that was part
of his administration as an ambassador to Iceland. What is this signal about the Trump endorsement and the way in which it may be changing in this election cycle relative to the past ones we have seen.
Yeah, it's an interesting question. You know, Trump has been very involved in the previous races and Republican primaries. I think he's been a little less involved in endorsing down ballot candidates this site relative to previous cycles. But I would say as a whole, some of those endorsements have been a little more I guess disciplined would be the right word for it, compared to previous cycles. Sam Brown
was the pick of Republican Senate leaders. They believe he is the best position to take on Jackie Rosen in the Senate race this November, and so you know, this was an endorsement that I think, you know, was kind of up for grabs, definitely. Like you said earlier, Jeffrey Gunter, the former ambassador at Iceland, was also running. Obviously a member of the Trump administration previously and had his own
connection to the Trump world. But I think this shows that Trump is a little more aligned, maybe with the Republican establishment than he has been in previous races.
Well, that's that's a really important part of the story, because you know, he was supposed to roll out this endorsement at the rally, he hardly mentioned Sam Brown and then shows up on truth Social late at night talking about this fearless and Maria Sek and Patriot his pure grit encouraged to take on our enemies, he write, both foreign and domestic. So did somebody get to Donald Trump? Did he get a phone call from Steve Danes? What happened on Sunday?
You know, I don't have any inside information on that specifically, but you know, I think it's important to also note that Sam Brown was already favored to win this race. He's the only one who is really spending a significant amount of money, has a huge advantage over the other candidates as far as fundraising goes, and also ran for Senate last cycle, and so already had a bit of
a base to draw from. And so I think, you know, Brown was favored from the get go, and this kind of semen's his status as the favorite.
So we'll be watching to see what happens in Nevada tomorrow. There's other races, though, that we are watching closely arin including in South Carolina Congressman Nancy Mace facing a primary challenge. She has been an interesting figure in the House of Representatives. She of course is one who voted for the ouster for Speaker Kevin McCarthy last year. How vulnerable is she?
Yeah, So throughout this cycle, McCarthy has been on a bit of a revenge tour. He obviously had a little more time on his hands now that he's no longer in the House, and he's been supporting challengers to the eight Republican members who ousted him last year. Now, Mace, I think was kind of in a unique position because she had previously been an ally of McCarthy, and McCarthy and his allies had spent significantly to help her in
previous races. She'd faced competitive primaries competitive general elections before, so she is no stranger to tough races. But now she has McCarthy's political operation going against her. I believe up to five million has now been spent against her in that primary, and for Catherine Templeton, who is a former member of Nicki Haley's administration, who is challenging Mace
and is the one that McCarthy is supporting. But I will note that Mace does have the endorsement of Trump here, which I think kind of took the wind out of Templeton's sales that happened a couple of months ago, and so I think most folks I've talked to in the state believe that she is favored to win this primary, but could feel a little closer than she wants it to be.
Indeed, what are the odds that this goes to a runoff?
You know?
I think most likely it doesn't. There is a third candidate on the ballot, and so in South Carolina, if no one gets fifty percent of the vote, that means the top two finishers will go to a runoff two weeks from now. I think most folks I've talked to think that Mace probably will hit that threshold and be fine, but certainly a chance.
It's interesting to talk about, or consider the idea that Nancy Mace does have the endorsement of Donald Trump, despite being one of the one to move to oust Kevin McCarthy last year, a number of others, though including some in the House Freedom Caucus, or not receiving the same
support from Donald Trump. In fact, he is vocally endorsed Virginia State Senator John maguire, who was primary Bob Good, the chair of the Freedom Caucus in Virginia, And there was reporting today from Punchbowl the idea that a lot of members of the Freedom Caucus are quite unhappy with the decisions Trump is making in regard to his endorsements.
I realized this comes back to a certain degree to the question I began with Aaron, this idea that maybe the Trump endorsement is changing from say what it was in twenty twenty two when a lot of the candidates that he decided to back ultimately did not win their races.
Yeah, I think that's right, and he certainly reveled some feathers in the Freedom Caucus wing of the party. You know, Bob Good is in a kind of uniquely difficult position because he has drawn the ir both of Trump and then for endorsing the stances that was kind of what originally started this rift back last year. But he also has made an enemy of McCarthy by voting to oust him last year. And so you have McCarthy's political operations spending heavily in support of McGuire, and again it's good.
And then on top of that, you have Trump and some of his allies also backing McGuire, and so that endorsement is now of course, all over the airwaves, McGuire has a pretty significant advantage on TV at this point. Now, you know, I've seen polling that shows Good eching a out a win. Ultimately, I've seen pulling that shows McGuire ahead. So I think this is really going to be a jump ball next week. But I think it's fair to say that Good is probably the most vulnerable Republican incumbent
in a primary com pair to folks like Mace. And then there are a couple of other members, incumbent members who have been critics of the House bredem Caucus who Trump has also endorsed. So that's William Timmins in South Carolina also has a primary tomorrow from Adam Morgan, who is actually the chairman of South Carolina's House Freedom Caucus and has a lot of grassroots support in that district.
This is an upstate excuse me, upstate South Carolina, And so I know that is one race where he has the support of a lot of folks on the ground and the more conservative wing of the party, and people are not happy with Trump for endorsing Timmins.
All right, erin great to have you back on balance of power. Aeron Kobe of the Kok Political Report, where she's an analyst. Thank you so much.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then roun Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
As we return to Shuttle diplomacy for the Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln, now making his eighth trip to the Middle East since the seventh of October. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines here in Washington, and Kaylee, we're looking for results. These trips have obviously come now number eight here, but the breakthroughs have been difficult for the Secretary of
State to find it. In fact, sometimes it's a bigger headline when the CIA Director Bill Burns shows up and clutter to move the ball, and you start wondering what the value of these trips can.
Be, well, especially when the trip's point so many of them have been to push for another temporary ceasefire agreement that to this point has not yet come to fruition. Time and again the Secretary of State has traveled to the Middle East only to return essentially empty handed, without anything ultra tangible that he can point to, because still no ceasfire has been put into place.
Yeah, some interesting headlines over the weekend. Of course, we saw the rescue of four hostages, but it came at a high cost for Israeli hostages. Israel says its forces killed around one hundred Palestinians. The Hamas run Health Ministry says it actually was in the area of two hundred
and seventy Kayley. So this balancing act continues, and you're right there are questions about in the particularly the wake of Benny Gantz stepping down from the Work Cabinet, whether we're further away now from a ceasefire than we were a couple of weeks ago.
Well, that's a question we want to pose now to Jonathan Panakoff, who was joining US director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council's Middle East Program, also former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for the Near East at the National Intelligence Council. Jonathan, always great to have
you here. On balance of power, I wonder, to Joe's point, what you make of the events that have taken place over the weekend and what it translates to terms of likelihood of a temporary cease fire deal going into place. Does the release of four hostages, or rather the rescue of them, put more pressure on the net and Yahoo government to agree to something that would allow for the release of dozens more, or does it do the opposite.
Thanks so much for having me. Great to be with you as always. I think actually it may unfortunately have the opposite effect, obviously unintended as a consequence, but the reality is you have from a number of folks on the right in Lakuta and Israel and some of the ultranationalists, folks like Ben Gervere and Smotrich who have been saying no, there should be absolutely no deal with Hamas. We should keep going and conduct the war until it's concluded and
Hamas is destroyed. And yes, we can at the same time also deal with the primary objective of rescuing the hostages. I think that's obviously a fallacy, to be totally honest. It's eight months in and the number of hostages is what's been able to rescue is well under ten. But the reality is now what we're seeing is I think that'll give life to this idea and some credence to it. Given understandable jubilation in Israel over the rescue of these hostages over the weekend.
Well, so do you expect to see further raids like this? And with each one does a ceasefire become more difficult?
I don't know that a ceasfire becomes more difficult. I mean I will think, look, any country, and there's certainly any Western democratic country that's had hostages for eight months will try to rescue them if it's a possibility. But just to rescue these four took weeks, if not probably months from what I'm hearing of planning. Obviously you're not going to be able to rescue the remaining sixty seventy
eighty hostages. However many are actually left alive right now through rage like this, It would take years upon years, and so I don't think it changes the calculus of the need for some sort of negotiated hostage release for prisoner swap. But I do think it certainly creates a situation where Sinwar now has an excuse again through propaganda of saying how many were killed to say no there's no reason for me to negotiate. Look what Israel is doing and that can complicate things right now.
Yeah, the ratio is certainly something to consider.
Here.
You save four, but nearly three hundred lives, according to Hamas, were lost in the process. So it comes back to what the Secretary of State is really going to be accomplishing on this trip, Jonathan. If you think actually the likelihood of a ceasefire agreement being reached in the near term is now less than it was, is Anthony Anthony blinkoln going to walk away with nothing again? Is this getting a little bit embarrassing diplomatically for the United States?
Oh? Look, I think it's never a bad thing to try when you're in a war and you're in a crisis. In the US, story remains probably the only country that may be able to have some influence on the Israeli side, though I think it's less, frankly, as we're seeing than everybody has thought it might be in the region. I think it's always worth trying to create a ceasefire and get to a stage of peace. That said, I'm not particularly optimistic. I do think right now this is about sinwar.
Hamas for a long time now has been viewed as a monolithic organization, and I think that's wrong. There's money, fat fragments of Hamas, some of the political ones in
Gazas and the political ones in Doha. The reality is, though, the only person that matters when it comes to mass right now is ya Ya Sinoir, and for him, there's not a lot of benefit to agreeing to a ceaspire and if he doesn't agree to a ceasefire, well then there's no pressure for NAT and Yahoo to ultimately agree to one either, because Hamas has to go first at this stage. That's what the pressure from the Biden administration
was about. I think Secretary Blincoln is trying to emphasize that for his regions, for his travels throughout the regent, including in Egypt. We'll see what happens, but obviously I think we're not nearly as optimistic as a lot of folks were when the President originally gave his speech two weeks ago.
Well, what that said, Jonathan. The US is asking the United Nations Security Council for a vote on its latest resolution here for a ceasefire in Gaza. What impact, if any, would that have?
Look, I think you could again increase the pressure and try to compel anybody who might have influence on Hamas to try and pressure Sinhoar. But the reality is it's probably not going to have much of an impact. I think it's always good when the world speaks in a unified voice, and I think we've seen that in smaller form. So the G seven statement supporting President Biden's initiative, the arra Quinn statement supporting the President's initiative, obviously additional momentum.
Keeping it in the headlines is always important, but in terms of actual impact, I think it's probably going to be minimal in the end.
Jonathan, we also want to make sure to ask you about the departure of Anny Gance from the Israeli government. On the one hand, of course, it was in part protest to Prime Minister Netanyah, who's handling of the war. On the other hand, what this leaves in the war cabinet is much greater influence, perhaps of the far right. Considering Gance was a moderate. What should we make of his departure and the difference it will make going forward in Israel's conduct in this ongoing war.
It's a great question. The reality is this has been a long time comic. Both Gance and you have Galant, the Defense Minister, who is part of the Work Cabinet, have been arguing for months there needs to be from NETANYAHUO a post war plan for Gaza. Obviously, the international community and the US has prioritized the Palestinian authority playing a major role. Netanyah who said no to that. And so if the answers no to that, what is the
actual plan? And that's not clear yet, And that frustration is what led Benny Gantz to decide we can't do this anymore and take his party out and for himself to leave the Work Cabinet. Whether it's actually going to happen.
Is it a cabinet of too then what happens?
Yeah? So look, the Work Cabinet had six members, only three were voting. You've got two options. One is that who can replace Benny Gantz? Obviously ultra nationalists like Ben Gavern's Motrich have both said they want the seat. I
think that's unlikely to happen. I thinkna who knows that it's probably suicidal for him with the international community given and how toxic those two are, I think he could replace them with a Lukud member and somebody who's been more loyal, or he could decide he's going to disband the work cabinet, but all of these at risks. If he disbands the work cabinet, then you're in jeopardy of every major decision related to the war having to go
to the full cabinet. And if it goes to the full cabinet, well, once again the ultra nationalists are there who are pushing not only for an opportunity to push harder against Hamas and eliminate Hamas, but have been very clear they want settlements to return of Israelis to Gaza, they want to be able to push further into the West Bank. And you're talking about something that's likely to actually increase tensions at a time where I think everybody recognizes the need for them to come down a little.
Bit, especially Jonathan considering it's not just tensions between Israel and Hamas, but in the wider Middle East that could potentially be amplified from this. Knowing prior to October seventh, there was an effort underway for Saudi normalization, and effort that obviously was disrupted by the events of that day. Everything that has happened thereafter. Yet that is also something that the US is pushing and I'm sure is on the mind of Anthony Blinkn as he makes this latest
trip to the Middle East. How should we be considering the Saudi factor.
Look, the Saudi normalization deal has been on the table for a while. I think in the immediate aftermath of October seventh, there was a contention by some that now normalizations off the table. The reality is, Saudi normalization with Israel is about one thing, and it's not Israel. It's about US security guarantees and US engagement with Saudi Arabia
over the long term. Saudi Arabia is desperate to try and redefine their economy and to have a Vision twenty thirty actually implement it, and that means to move away from hydrocarbons. The only way Saudi Arabia is going to be able to successfully diversify their economy is to ensure their security is sacricynct. And to do that you either need to have really good relations with everybody in the region, something hard to imagine even with the reproachment with Iran,
or you need some sort of umbrella protection. There's not enough political risk insurance in the world to ensure Saudi's domestic goals are met if the reality is you've got houthy rockets, Iranian rockets in the future going down on Saudi Arabia. And so for the Biden administration, this has been a key issue because they think this would transform the region if you had Saudi analyization with Israel. I
think it probably would. But my guess is time is also running out right now to get that passed through the Senate. You would need a treaty to be able to do that. As we head to an election season here in the US, I just think it's becoming less and less likely. They're going to keep trying, but I think it's harder to envision it coming to fruition in the next six months, seven months before the new administration takes over.
Hey, Jonathan, we only have one minute. I have to ask you about this Axios report talking about a warning from the Biden administration to Israel about opening a new front, about waging war, committing to a war against Hesbolah. Is this something that's about to happen? Knowing that Israel has not listened to a lot of advice from the US, recently.
I'm increasingly concerned that it is. Six months ago, I really didn't think it would happen. Israel didn't want it. Hesbol almost certainly doesn't want it. Iran doesn't want it. But the rocket attacks that have been coming from Hezbolah, the drone attacks. Hesbollah said today they intercepted in Israeli drone on the other side, I think we're increasingly likely to see some sort of conflict if it sparks, because
it's Israeli instigated. I think that's going to be a real challenge for the Biden administration, who said that they're not going to support Israel in such a war. If it's from Hesbola, that's story. But the most likely scenario is that something sparks, becovers of an unintended escalation, a back and forth with the rockets that gets out of hand. Look, it's not guaranteed. Almost Hostein is working very very hard to get the Hesbarala Rodwong special Forces away from the
Israel Lebanon border. But I think the chances of war are dramatically increasing right now.
Well, Jonathan, is great to have you back. Jonathan Panacoff, Director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council's Middle East Program. Thank you for joining in great insights today on Balance of Power. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.