Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay and then Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
One person though not in Washington today, hasn't been for several days. In fact, is the President of the United States? Is Joe Biden is still at Camp David? Yeah, or maybe we should call it Camp Debate, doing debate prep ahead of Thursday.
It's nice up there, you know, this time of year, we're going to see it. Even Josh Wingrove doesn't get the stay at camp David. That's like the one spot you go and you don't want the distractions. You don't want people around your desk. You're trying to focus. It's a different approach than of course, we've been hearing Donald Trump taking He's going to fundraisers and riffing with the staff, trying to come up with one liners and so forth.
We'll find out which work. But it's interesting in the preamble here, Kaylee, we're seeing the Biden campaign try to knock down what they're calling cheap fakes. These are not deep fake videos, but allegedly altered in some way, edited in some way, and put together to make Joe Biden look like a very old man, too old to run for office. This is what Josh Wingrove is writing about here Bloomberg's White House correspondent at the table. Great to
see you, sir. Hey, this is I'm sure something they love talking about.
You guys, wouldn't deceptively edit me?
Well, no, this is live, you know on Bloomberg. We just don't have the chance. Huh, cheap fakes. That's not bad. Did they come up with that?
Yeah, so they you know, we've been seeing a lot of these. This, by the way, is part of the reason why their concerns on Capitol Hill about TikTok and you know what algorithms would feed what content regardless of which president is in office. They're worried about this because these videos are surfacing. They're being amplified the conservative media and the Trump campaign to you know, stoke concerns about
the president's age. One in particular, from the G seven was edited deceptively to trim it so it looked more like Biden was wandering off, as opposed to gesturing two parachuters, which was the case. I was there, sawn there, so there there, that happened. That is, yeah, we were.
It was a good para. I bet it was cool. No one talks about those guys.
Yeah, they came in in like cute little Italian cars.
You know. Anyone saying though, oh he's wandering off, or you saw this later on social media said wait a minute, that's not really happened.
The initial unedited clip took off pretty quickly, and then the edited clip which made it look worse. But he was, I mean, he was gesturing to those people. So that's the issue here is they said they you know, Democrats say, yes he's old, he's eighty one. But like you know, there are often explanations, innocuous explanations for these videos. But
still the videos are not helping. Biden campaign chair Jenna mally Dillon saying in a podcast yesterday to make your own blanking tiktoks to combat this, and calling on supporters to flood the zone. So the risk for Biden on Thursday is, of course, any moment, any pause, and he frees up any stumble, which certainly I've had, you know, on TV or radio or what have you, can be exacerbated to add fuel to this fire on the question
of the age concerns. But they see another side to this coin I should know, and that is that Trump has been saying a lot of eyebrow raising things. Even if you've sort of priced in Trump being a little you know, on the front foot on some of these things, saying stuff that makes your eyebrows raise, Trump, you know, is saying different stuff than even he said in twenty
twenty and twenty sixteen. And so the Biden people think that this is a double edged sword and that voters who are just tuning in will see some of the stuff Trump is saying and think, oh boy, you know, that is even different than what we've come to expect from Donald Trump. And so that is the framing for this. They're both in this race right now to set expectations.
Trump has spent the last two years calling Joe Biden sleepy, Joe essentially saying that his brain is, you know, fading, and now he's going out of his way to compliment Joe Biden as a debater.
It's wild.
You should see this. So the Trump campaign send a statements saying what a great job Joe Biden did in twenty twelve against Paul Ryan. Yeah, so there's some expectations setting going on. I should note that that twenty twelve stuff feels like now at the time, you remember Barack Obama delivered a real stinker of a debate against Mitt Romney.
Democrats were a little bit despondent about that, and it was Joe Biden who came out swinging against Paul Ryan, you know, a bunch of malarkey being the key takeaway
quote from that. They really helped rejuvenate that and that is really I think part of the final point I want to make here is that this is the expectation setting is as much about, you know, making sure your own people are motivated to knock on doors, make phone calls, whatever, as it is about, you know, twisting the arm of some undecided voter to the extent that those still exists.
Well, on the subject of expectation setting, it does seem that, at least for the Trump camp, part of that expectation setting has to do with with the rules of the debate, the format that they agreed to.
The rules.
It should make very clear the Trump team did agree to these rules. The CNN moderators, the MIC's getting cut off if you're speaking over time, the lack of a live audience, how does that change the nature of what's about to go down on Thursday.
They are setting this up as a quote three on one because they want to be able to sort of say it was rigged. Sound familiar, So that's what we are expecting from it. They did agree to the rules, And there's sort of two schools have thought about why Biden's campaign sort of floated this in the first place. And you know, one is that a cynic might say that they didn't know whether Trump would say yes or not, right because Trump had been saying anytime, any place, you know,
let's do this, Let's have a ton of debates. Trump is also floating the notion of whether they should both be drug tested, which you know, that is a different kettle of fish. So right now, this is the earliest debate we've had in the modern era by a long shot, by a couple of months. Biden wants this to be, you know, putting both of them on stage saying this is the choice. Notably absent from that or other third party candidates. Trump wants the same thing. He wants to
hammer Biden on immigration. He wants a hammer Biden on inflation, which are concerns at poll after poll, including Bloomberg's own poll with Morning Call Salt shows our top issues for independent voters and voters more broadly. So you know, Trump wants a window to go at Biden. Biden wants a window to frame the choice as a binary choice for voters. It's their view that any vote not for Joe Biden is a vote for Donald Trump, whether you stay home or you pick someone else.
All right, Josh Wee Grove, Bloomberg White House Correspondent, looking forward Thursday night, Thursday Night, your coverage indeed, well, of course, be having coverage of that for you on Bloomberg TV and Radio eight to eleven pm. We will be simulcasting CNN's presidential debate, and on the note of that debate, as we continue to look ahead, Let's assemble now our political panel. Rick Davis is with us Bloomberg Politics contributor and partner at Stone Coard Capital. Joan joined today by
Joney Wartel, partner at ARC Initiatives and Democratic Strategists. Welcome to you both. Jennay I'd like to start with you is we were just discussing with Josh this whole idea that the Biden campaign the White House is already struggling immensely with these cheap fakes, with videos that circulate of the President looking old at eighty one, something that he cannot change. How much power does he have to change that narrative on Thursday night.
So I think what's important to think about when it comes to this debate is that the president is going to deliver a clear and concise message to the American people about what's at stake in this election and why he is the right choice for another four year term and rightly contrast him with himself with Donald Trump. I think that what's important here is for him to show the energy and enthusiasm beg he has in his months on the campaign trail, traveling to battleground states all across America.
So I think that that contrast and that kind of rebuttaled to the claim that he's too old to be president or other things that have been said, is for h him to show up on that debate stage Thursday ready to really put on display for the American people why he is the best choice to lead us into the future.
Rick, a fascinating study here from Media Matters Today. I wanted to ask you about You can both take a swing at this if you want, because it challenges the idea of the left wing media bias when you consider specifically the issue of age, as Kaylee brings up here. They reviewed articles in five of the top US newspapers by circulation, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times,
LA Times, USA Today. Rick, they found out of the one hundred and forty four articles focused on either of their ages or mental acuities, sixty seven percent focused only on Joe Biden's age or mental acuity. Only seven percent focused only on Donald Trump's. What do you make of that bias?
You know, look, I think it's a bias. I guess by virtue of the data. But I mean, remarkably, Donald Trump doesn't appear very old. I mean, he puts on these shows, in these rallies, he stands up there.
For over an hour on a monologue.
He goes on the most crazy rants in the world, but nobody thinks of him as being old and feeble in the process of doing it. Crazy maybe, but not old and feeble. Joe Biden get up to announce an award for somebody, and you think the guy's going to teeter over at any minute. You literally hold your breath
hoping that he gets through the event. And that's just because of his appearance and the way he talks, and sometimes he gets so quiet you think, you know, he's just sort of not got enough air in him to produce a sound. And yet at the same time, he produced a great performance at the State of the Union where everyone's like, Hey, if he could just do that every day, we wouldn't even be talking about age. Look, let's face it, these are two Jerry Theatrics running for president. Age is an issue.
Whether they like it or not.
American public have basically said they don't want either one of them because they're both too old and out of sync with where America is today, and so they got to put up with this kind of scrutiny because it is what it is. An American public is not happy with these choices. It's why seventy percent of the public and most of these polls say they'd rather have a
different choice than both of them. So these are two guys standing on a stage Thursday night where the majority of the country would have rather have somebody else to debate on both sides of the equation. So they have a job to do, which is overperformed, to look energetic, to appear ready for the job, to think you can survive four more years of this kind of tough rule as a president of the United States, and I think voters deserve that they want to see that it's survivable.
Janay, I'd love for you to weigh in on what Joe was just asking Rick, the idea that the aide question is just covered more when it comes to Biden than it is for Trump, who is just three years younger at seventy eight.
Yes, well, we see much more of President Biden on in the media because he's on, you know, the world stage. He's both the commander in chief and leader of the free world and also a candidate for a second term. And so when you talk about what his schedule must be like or must have been like over the last couple of months, you're talking about somebody who is participating
on the world stage, meeting with foreign leaders. You're talking about somebody who's traveling the battleground states across America to make sure that the message of this campaign is heard in communities all across the country. And so when you look at the rigor that President Biden is under, with the amount of work that he has to do to accomplish that list of things, yes, you would find that
that anyone would be probably a little worn out. But what I think we've seen from President Biden, especially on the campaign trail, and I've been on the ground and I've seen him at rallies, I've seen him in small group settings, is a president who is energized, who's enthused, and who's ready to take on Donald Trump.
On Thursday night, Rick, we started this hour talking with Josh Wingrove about something the Biden campaign is labeling cheap fakes as opposed to deep fakes. And it's this idea that they're seeing edited, maybe slightly altered, a video of Joe Biden looking old, and they're basically asking not only calling them out when they see them, but they're asking supporters to flood the zone with their own videos to make Donald Trump look crazy with some of the things
that he says. You've run presidential campaigns, how would you handle this new element, this new reality of cheap fakes, as they call them.
You know.
Look, I mean campaigns boys had trouble with being taken out of contact or just a small quote within a broader context that makes it sound bad. And and I'm always torn because I think in this case, the more they draw attention to it, the more we talk about his age, and his age is the vulnerability, It's not Trump's. I think that the Biden campaign could do a better job of attacking Trump on his own gaffes in infirmaries.
I mean, you know, there's not a single event goes by that Donald Trump doesn't go off on something about like how much water and a toilet bowl? I mean, like, does the American people really care? I think that these these campaigns could sharpen their their their attacks a lot more, and certainly the Biden campaign can. He basically left Donald Trump alone for six months, you know, when the campaign started.
So uh yeah.
But like I just I it always makes me cringe whenever the Biden campaign starts talking about how they're being treated unfairly because he's old, Because they're just reminding of voters that he's old, and it's not avoidable. There's nothing that the campaign can do to change that status.
Jenay, I'd like to ask you about an essay that Hillary Clinton wrote in The New York Times today and which she points out that she is the only person to have debated both Donald Trump and Joe Biden. She writes in part that it is nearly impossible to focus on substance when mister Trump is involved. She goes on to say, it is a waste of time to try to refute Trump's arguments, Like in a normal debate, It's nearly impossible to identify what his arguments even are. He
starts with nonsense and then digresses into blather. How does Joe Biden debate against that on Thursday?
Well, you have to focus on what is Yeah, well, I think you have to focus on what is President Biden's job on that debate stage on Thursday. His job is to set up the contrast between him and former President Trump. His job is to tell the story of how his men registration has led this country out of four years of Donald Trump and helped to you know, recover the economy, help to lead us out of a
health crisis. And so, while it is it is no secret that Donald Trump is likely going to come with a number of insults and jabs and and incoherent kind of tirades about any number of things. Who can who can know?
Who can?
Guess? I think it's important for the president to look presidential right, to present these arguments, to present the plan, to present his accomplishments and what he's done over the last four years. And I think that's really the only way to truly create contrast between him and former President Trump. A lot of that will frankly do play out itself. Right There's there's a lot that President Biden, by just standing up and being presidential, will create an immediate contrast
with former President Trump. And I think that's that's his job on that stage on Thursday night, We're going.
To see it and hear it right here Onloomberg TV and Radio Big thanks to our smart panel Janey Wartel come back and see us again in Rick davis smart take on the Fastest show in Politics. Charlie Cook is up next on Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then royd Outo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty New York.
Of course a state we're paying special attention to today, even from down here in Washington, as it is primary day, and there's one recent particular Joe Matthew that we are paying the most acute attention to. It's in the sixteenth Congressional district, in which the incumbent Democrat Jamal Bowman, a member of the Squad, could be the first incumbent to go down this primary season, up against a challenger in George Ladimir, who is painting a very significant contrast over the issue of Israel.
That's right, it comes down to Israel. It seems. We talked to Emerson Polling yesterday they had Bowman down, the incumbent, down by seventeen points I think roughly three weeks ago the most recent numbers that we've been looking at here Kayley and would be the first member of the so called squad to lose reelection. So significant here as we
consider the states in play, New York, Colorado, Utah. By the way, we're still waiting for the Bob Good race to settle in Virginia, and there's a question about whether This is really a time where we're seeing the centrists advance here and the extremes on both sides run into some headwinds. None other than Charlie Cook is with us to talk about it. Cannon balling into the pool today, the namesake of the Cook Political Report, Charlie gets. Great to have you back and good to see you on
Bloomberg TV and radio. Is the moral of today's story going to be centrists?
When well in New York, I think, I mean Bowman sounds like he's in huge trouble, and I think George or seems well positioned to take him out. But that's sort of the center up against the war, the hard ideological left, a lot of the primaries that we've been seeing in recent weeks and today on the Republican side, it's basically between the far right and the really really far right. You know, it's it's not the classic moderates or centrists and ideologues at all, so but it is.
You took the words out of my mouth a minute ago when you said, none of the squad have ever you know, I have had any real problems before. This is the first one. But you know, you know, pulling a fire alarm in the Capitol Building. I mean, you know, when you look at it, it's like, wait a minute. That mean that kind of crystallizes behavior in the minds of voters, where you know, the members can can get away with a lot, but there are limits to it.
And I suspect that Congressman Bowman may have hit his limit.
Yeah.
The infamous fire alarm incident, of course, was during the government shutdown fight in the fall. He was trying to make it to a vote. He maintained that he thought he could exit through the door that ultimately triggered the fire alarm. It was quite a saga. So considering the potential flaw and that being one of this candidate, Charlie, should we be looking at this primary race in New
York as idiosyncratic? Is something unique to these candidates and specific issues, or something that could be a tell on the division we are seeing in the Democratic Party over the Israel issues, something that could translate into November.
Well, it's a little bit of a cow but frankly, we're not seeing it as quite this big a deal in other primaries yet. I mean, it may get there, but so far we haven't. And I think apac American Israel Public Affairs Committee. They're picking their shots very carefully and sort of rifle shot, going after specific members that they feel like they have a good shot of taking out, as opposed to being seen as a paper tiger going after lots of people and not succeeding in many or
any of them. And so I think it's it's it shows some sharp targeting on the part of APAC to concentrate their fire on where they seem to have a really really good chance in not places where you know it'd be a long shot.
I'm really glad you mentioned that Charlie Apax super Pac has done almost fifteen million dollars into ads against Congressman Bowman. That is an all time record, an all time record in American political history. With that said, maybe this is the new normal. But what would this race look like without Apax money.
It would still probably be pretty close. But let's remind ourselves this is the New York City media market. You know, this is a dubuque, so if you're trying to get through to voters, it's going to be awfully offy off the price these Although granted, television isn't as big an advertising vehicle as it used to be. But oh yeah, no, they were they were playing. You know, Apex was playing for keeps here, no question of no question about it.
But uh, and and you know for future, you know, a member is gonna think, jeez, I'm not sure how I'm going to vote, but I remember what happened to Bowman, and I sure wouldn't want to be Bowman did. And uh, you know that can affect behavior. You know, a lot of times members of Congress will look for the path of least resistance, and uh, this clearly was not it for Bowman.
Charlie.
Of course, it's not just New York that has primary today. There's also primaries in Colorado as well as in Utah and Utah specifically in the congressional races. In the Senate race, we're questioning the power of the Trump endorsement and the gubernatorial primary Trump didn't endorse, despite the incumbent governor being pretty critical of Trump. Trump hasn't stepped into uh to
advocate for his challenger. How should we be thinking about the nature of the Trump endorsement in this election cycle and how it is different compared to say, twenty twenty two other cycles before that.
Well, former President Trump was incredibly effective in forcing out the infidels, people that had voted for impeachment of him, and where they either jumped or got pushed out pretty effectively. But you know, looking at these primaries, I mean, we're talking about the difference between chocolate and Rocky Road ice cream here. I mean, you're gradations of two, you know, really conservative people, but one of them happened to have Trump's endorsement, but the other one can hardly be portrayed
as anti Trump. So you know, I think there are limits now for I'd want to extrapolate some of these things. And the same thing in that Virginia race that we had last week that undetermined with Congressman Good, We're talking about some really conservative people here. This isn't you know, this isn't between the Mitt Romney center right and Trump. He's this is doing flavors of really conservative people.
All right, you went there, Charlie. So what about Bob, Bob Good and John McGuire a race. Now, this election is a week old. It was last Tuesday in Virginia. This is the head of the Freedom Caucus, Bob Good, and we talked a lot about this. The strange bedfellows that came together to oppose Bob Good, Donald Trump, and Kevin McCarthy swinging together along with establishment Republicans on Capitol Hill.
It's still not called. In fact, Bob Good, who thought he was going to get a recount, looks like they will not be within the margin. And John McGuire's margin is actually he's picked up a couple of votes. He's at three hundred and seventy three. But Charlie, Bob Good says he's not done, and he said yesterday he will try to block certification of this vote because of irregularities in Lynchburg. Is this the beginning of the whole rigged conversation going into November?
I kind of doubt it. The thing is, with elections like this, the big jumps in numbers typically come in the first twenty four to forty eight hours where somebody you know, made an arithmetic error totaling up the columns. You don't generally see big time switches shifts and votes, you know, this far, this far away from an election.
So my guess is that Goods defeat is probably going to stand, and that you know, when one really conservative Republican is saying that another really conservative Republicans stole an election. That doesn't quite get the traction that some of the charges that that former President Trump has leveled over the years. And you know, although frankly, there's very very very little. I mean, this country, we have a lot of problems, and there are lots of things that government doesn't do well.
We actually count votes pretty well and there's not a voter fraud to even laugh at anymore. But if people want to believe it, they'll believe it well.
And certainly Donald Trump is still out there talking about it in the case of the twenty twenty election. And Charlie, on that note, we have been talking endlessly about Donald Trump and the debate that is upcoming of him versus
Joe Biden on Thursday on CNN. The question is what does the debate actually change, if anything, How much potential does it have to change an election that we all know is likely to be very very close, in which many voters on either side for either candidate are already entrenched and have their minds made up.
Well, debates typically don't make that much different. So, I mean, the typical, normal, well adjusted person does not spend an hour and a half out of their lives watching a political debate. Usually partisans that are watching to cheer on, you know, their favorite candidate or jeer the opposition, but
occasionally they do. And one this is obviously a close race, but I would look for rather than and I was a high school debater, Rather than think about, okay, who was smoother, who performed better, I'd say who got a moment, Who had a moment, Something happened positive or negative that people will be talking about at work or in the grocery store aisle or over the back fence a day to three days ago, where it's gone viral, where it's covered, played over and over and over again. And we can
all think of cases where that's happened. But most debates don't move the needle much at all. And the little eight or ten percent of people that are really, really, really undecided, they don't read, watch, listen to news. They're not Bloomberg watchers. You know, these people were kind of pretty much out and they only check in late if they check in at all. But these are they're not debate watchers.
They really are everything.
It's a coverage of the debate. It's more important than watching the live feed of the debate.
Yeh, the spin and the clips that circulate on TikTok the next day. Charlie Cook of The Cook Political Report, thank you so much as always for joining us here on Balance of Power.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then Roudoto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
From Washington on this primary day. Happy Primary Day in New York included where Kaylee we started this hour talking about a very difficult challenge for New York Congressman Jamal Bowman, and it has everything to do with Israel, with Joe Biden's policies in Israel and outrage from progressives over this. He is expected to lose if you believe the polls. But there's bad news not only for Joe Biden on Israel. Potentially Benjamin Nett Yahoo today as well as the Israeli
Supreme Court makes a landmark ruling here unanimous. I should add that the military must begin drafting ultra Orthodox men for compulsory service. This would end a decade's old system Kailey, and many think it could lead to the undoing of Benjamin Nettyaho's.
Government, considering that the coalition government he has formed includes those on the far right ultra Orthodox, who had in part in joining this government, wanted to make sure that the non mandatory participation in the military service for those ultra Orthodox individuals would be enshrined into law, and here the Supreme Court is doing as a ruling that does
the exact opposite. Of course, the Court's grounds for this is essentially the ongoing war, which is now almost nine months in, and they said, in the midst of a difficult war, the burden of inequality is more acute than ever. The question, Joe, is whether this also makes the burdens on Benjamin netanyahuo even more acute by extension.
Well, that's absolutely right, and it's happening on what could be as we've discussed the eve of a new front opening to the north, as Israel considers waging war against Hesbolah.
Yeah, there's a lot to pay attention to, and we want to dig into this a little further, and welcome now Jennifer Kavanash. He's a senior fellow in the American State Craft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Also an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University. Jennifer, welcome back to balance of power. If we could first begin with this decision from the Israeli
Supreme Court. How much more difficult could this make Benjamin Netanyah, whose life domestically.
Well, It would be a big policy change if it actually comes to pass and is implemented as the court laid out, Benjamin Natiah, who is very dependent on his coalition to stay in power, and this really could really split that coalition between those who are supportive of the ruling and those in the right wing that are opposed
to it. And I think that it's not surprising at all that the court ruled this way, or that this issue is getting new scrutiny in light of the ongoing conflict and the burdens that that's placed on military families. It's also evidence, I think of the increasing social and political pressure inside of Israel writ large, which could put a bottom up pressure on net Yahoo's position.
I want to hear you speak more to that. During arguments before the court, the government's lawyers argue that forcing ultra orthodox man to enlist would quote tear Israeli society apart unquote were they right?
Well, that's a very difficult question. A lot of terms there that would need to be defined. But I think the bigger pressure that the country is facing right now is the burdens of the war are and the ongoing ramifications of the October seventh attack on Israel. Many families now have have lost service members and have service members serving in Gaza. And it's also important to note that there's also this other looming front up in the North and a potential additional set of call ups the reserves
to fight against Hesblas. So this is not a short term issue, and I think that the court then has to weigh these decisions the the the the different pressures, the pressures from military families and the pressures from the
orthobox community. I will say that it's not uncommon for there to be conscious conscientious objectors and personnel who are uncomfortable serving in military positions, even in the United States, but there are often ways to bridge that gap in terms of having them serve in support roles or administrative roles. There's lots of roles that need to be filled in war times. So it's it seems that this should be something that could be bridged without tearing apart the fabric
of the community. As the government's lawyer stated.
Well, Jennifer, let's expand upon what you just raised there, this notion or what seems like it could be a growing risk that Israel actually does open up a second front in this war on the border in the north with Lebanon and go after Hesbela directly. As you were just speaking there to already the burden that Israel is facing in regard to the first front of the war, the ongoing operations in Gaza, the toll that is taking
on Israeli citizens, on families, on the Israeli economy. Certainly, can Israel afford to go against Hesbela directly at this moment, whether in actual economic sense or in personnel sense, Well.
It'll be very difficult, and it would require the Israeli government and military to make some tough choices in terms of how to allocate resources and personnel. The operation in Gaza is likely to continue for some time the military and net Yah, who has indicated that the most intense phase is drawing down, but also continue to hold tight to a goal of eradicating Hamas, which is not a
short term goal, it's a long term goal. So that suggests a long term presence in the Gaza strip and taking on Hezbla is going to be even more difficult so than Hamas because it is much better armed, much larger, and has many more resources. So that's going to be an even more costly and difficult conflict were it to occur. So the decision to do that would be very It would be difficult for Israel and requires significant sacrifices from
the population and the government. The United States has indicated the Biden administration has indicated that it would be there to back the Israelis up if they chose to make this move, but that probably doesn't mean US troops on the ground. It probably means a continued military assistance.
Jennifer Yov Golant, the Israel's Defense Minister, is in Washington right now a third day of meetings and talks with Biden administration officials, and today he's spending time with our Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin. The conversation is square directly at the potential for a war with Hesbelah and what the US hopes is the potential to avoid one. We know almost Hochstein is in the region to try to conduct talks preemptively getting into this with all of the
stakeholders involved in the region. Can the US keep this from happening?
I guess my question really is whether or not the US is willing to take the steps it would need
to to stop it from happening. It's true that the United States is pushing diplomacy and that the yesterday Secretary Blinken urged the Israelis to avoid additional espalation, But at the same time, it's also been made pretty clear that the United States sees this as a decision for Israel to make, and have sent messages both to Is that it would be there to back them up and as well as to Hesbela to avoid escalation on its on its side, and the Biden administration has indicated that they
will continue to flow forces into the region. The uss S rule Roosevelts is moving from the Pacific Theater into the Mediterranean, and there's some additional Marine Corps assets in the region as well. So I question whether or not the Biden administration has the willingness to actually leverage US influence to stop this from happening.
So there's the question of what the US either attempting to make sure it doesn't happen, would be, or its response would be in the instance that Israel does pursue this, in Hebela pursues Israel back in return. As there's a risk assessment, certainly that has to happen on both sides. There also is the question of the backer of Hesbela
in Iran. Jennifer, we were speaking last night with your colleague Garran David Miller, who suggests, and if you see the second front open, what actually opens is potentially the regional conflict the US has been trying to avoid all along, as it would draw the US in directly and Iran in directly. What would that really look like if it's not Iranian proxies that we are talking about, but potentially Iran itself.
Well, that's obviously a very dangerous situation. I think all actors involved are hoping to avoid a regional war of that kind. It's important to recognize that any tiny step up the escalation ladder moves us closer to that point. Whether that's just in ISRAELI has a lot of conflict or Iran gets involved directly, and I think, you know, if we have US forces on the ground and Iranian forces on the ground, that starts to look like a
very different conflict. It's important to recognize that the Iranians have significant military capabilities and are not all that far away from potential having a nuclear weapon, and that any conflict that involved the US and Iran in the region
could easily spell into surrounding countries. So I would say, in terms of trying to imagine the scale of what it could be, I'm not saying that it would be, but it would be much worse than anything the US experienced during the US invasion of Iraq in two thousand and three. So really something to avoid on all parties we have.
Well, maybe you can tell us the right question to ask in this case, Jennifer, But what would the US posture be in that scenario.
Well, the Biden administration has been very cautious in terms of any sort of comitment of US forces on the ground. At the same time, they're already US troops stationed in the region that have come under attack. I think the US would do everything possible to avoid having its own forces fighting directly with Iranian forces, just as it's done everything possible in Europe to make sure that it's never
US forces directly engaging Rustern soldiers. So I would imagine they would try to stick to military assistant as far as long as possible. At the same time, we know from just over the past few months that the US is willing to be pretty engaged in terms of protecting Israeli territory. So I would say the US would try to keep ground forces out of the picture for as long as possible, but would not roll out things like helping Israel protect its airspace and water space.
Jennifer, it's great to have you. We'd love to have you back. Jennifer Kavanaugh, Senior Fellow in the American state Craft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ken just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
It's only which I guess is good news if you're preparing for a debate that could decide the election on Thursday night. We've got a lot to talk about today on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube, where you can find us right now. Search Bloomberg Global News to find our live feed and we'll bring you right here in the studio with a lot to talk about these next two hours. We've heard so much about the preparations of the candidates. Joe Biden's locked down right now
at Camp David. Must be beautiful up there, by the way. It's a gorgeous day in the nation's capital, away from the reporters, away from the cameras, away from the briefing room, away from the distractions in the bubble at the White House. And it does look like he's going to be going straight from Camp David to the debate in Atlanta on Thursday. Donald Trump made time as riffin and holding fundraisers this week,
not doing the traditional prep as you keep hearing. But now that we've established that, I point you to the cocoon of horror. Now, if you grow up around Boston, if you live in New England, you know who I'm talking about. That is a phrase coined by John Keller, the dean of political journalists in New England who's moderated more debates than probably all of us have ever seen, and he begins each of them by warning the candidates that if they do not follow the rules, they will
end up in the cocoon of horror. He says this to senators, governors, and it might need to be said to a couple of presidents, a current one and a former one. On Thursday. We're at the point now where the mics have to be caught off because the rules kind of don't matter. So we thought we would talk to the uber moderator today about a couple of things, beginning with this debate on Thursday night. John Keller is the political analyst at WBZ TV and Radio in Boston.
He's also writing for Boston Magazine and a longtime colleague of mine, John, I just don't want to end up in the cocoon of horror. Welcome to Bloomberg Radio. Welcome back. It's good to see you. I wonder what's going through your mind now as you're preparing to moderate a debate if you're Jake Tapper, a Dana Bash, knowing that the Trump machine is already attacking you and trying to damage your credibility ahead of a forum that could be wild West.
How does a moderator prepare for a debate where rules don't seem to matter.
By drinking heavily? No, I'm kidding about that that. They should probably save that for afterward. But Joe, first of all, thank you for having me in a real quick correction credit where it's due. I borrowed the phrase cocoon of horror from Peter McNeely, a club boxer in the Boston area who was the first victim of Mike Tyson.
After he came out of prison.
McNeely vowed that Tyson would enter his cocoon of horror, and of course, as you may recall, he was flat on his back within thirty seconds.
So just to.
Correct, Wow, okay, look, I mean, they've got the mute button at CNN ready to go. I think they're going to have to use it. It'll be interesting to see how much muted background noise coming from I think you know what side it's going to be coming from. How much the audience will be able to hear through Biden's mike and the moderator's mike. That'll be an interesting element of this. But look, if you're a moderator, first of all, you have to keep in mind who this debate is about.
It's not about you, the moderator and your smart questions. It's not about really about the candidates. It's about the voters. Are they going to have an opportunity if they pay attention to emerge better informed about the momentous choice they have to make? Then they were going in so in order to do that, particularly given these two, the baseline is to try to impose order.
And so it wouldn't surprise.
Me at all to hear Tapper and or Dana Bash, if not screaming, then yelling at Donald Trump early on to clam up if he tries to shout over Biden, as I suspect he's probably going to try to do. If they can threaten him or you know, show him what the cocoon of horror in this instance looks like, they might be able to rain him in.
It worked four years ago.
You may recall in that it wasn't so much the moderators that rained in Trump. It was the bad reviews from that first dyspeptic, out of control debate performance. His own people, I think said to him you've got to tone it down for the second debate, and he did, right.
I want to know where you are on live fact checking, because this has become part of our reality, John, and it's got its limits, as we saw in the town hall with Don Donald Trump on this same network on CNN, and they were excoriated. In fact, the guy who ran the network was shown the door after this. So is it really incumbent upon the moderator?
Now?
Is this the modern interpretation of the job where they have to fact check live every answer they get, as opposed to say post show analysis or just letting voters do their own homework.
Yeah, I mean, look, they are honest differences of opinion on that within the world of debate moderators. My view is that that's not my job. You know, if in one of the candidates says something false about me or about my network, I might correct them live. But I believe that if Joe Biden or Donald Trump says something that's probably false, it's up to the other candidate to
correct them. That is part of the information that is imparted by a debate is this person who wants to wield power over my life, someone who's well versed in the facts, courageous and aggressive enough to correct misstatements of fact when they occur on the spot. Are they quick enough to do so?
So?
No, I don't think the moderators should fact check live.
I think that's up to the other candidate.
And you mentioned the responsibility of the viewer at home, and I think that's an under remark upon part of these debates. You know, are you prepared to walk into a bakery and be sold a rotten coffee roll without looking it over first, maybe asking is this thrash?
It looks a little green around the edges. I don't think so.
Why would you accept political rhetoric that's also rotten?
Is this the new precedent? Mike's caught off in a debate like this and networks running their own show. I have to call this thing to see and n debate, I'm told in every reference, John, because the Commission isn't running these now.
Yeah, I think it might be, Joe. I mean, we'll see how it goes. I'm glad that they did away with the live audience. I've always felt live audiences are completely superfluous to a televised debate and just at best are an unnecessary distraction.
We'll see how well the MIC's work.
To remember, they had it in the Second debate four years ago and it didn't seem to be needed very much because Trump cleaned up his act a little bit. So yeah, certainly, disposing of the committee overseeing the debates, it seems to have left the American public dry eyed. I don't hear much upset over that. We'll see how it goes. But I think people deserve a better product than they've gotten at times in the past. And I also, you know, two moderators, from my money, is one moderator
too many. But at least they don't have a whole panel of reporters preen ng and dowing up unnecessary time.
That I believe is also an improvement show.
Yeah, well, we won't hold our breath for the National Media Consortium to the next debate. Here John Keller with us on Ballots of Power here on Bloomberg. The economy is going to be a big issue in this debate, John, and I don't suspect it's going to be terribly well informed.
And when we start talking about the specifics of what's driving inflation, you start talking about monetary policy, real estate is something that I'd like to talk to you about here, because we're going to go from the cocoon of horror with John Keller to the urban doom loop. You're writing about the commercial real estate collapse of the twenty twenties. It's how you put it. In a new piece in
Boston Magazine. The headline is Boston's economy doomed. And we can extrapolate this to look at cities around the country. But the fact is, and I was fascinated to learn this from John's reporting, nowhere is this collapse more acute than in Boston. MSCI finds property sale prices in the Central Business District cratered in the fourth quarter by more than thirty percent year over year. That declines steeper than
any other city that MSCI tracked. John, you can speak to what's happened in Boston, but it's happening all over the country. This is the post COVID world we live in.
Right.
It is.
Unfortunately, cities like San Francisco in New York and the problems with vacant office space and workers not returning once the pandemic quote unquote ended has been a big story. But Boston has been particularly bad. The numbers don't lie, Joe. There's a variety of reasons for that. There was a bill a commercial office space boom in Boston over the last decade or so, and it's a city with notoriously bad commuter traffic and poor public transit. So the first
opportunity most office workers got to ditch their commute. Anyone who could work from home made it clear they preferred to do so. Compounding the situation in Boston is that Boston, more than any other major city in the country, had relied heavily on commercial real estate tax revenues for its annual budget. This worked out really well for a series of politicians over the years, who, as a result, could keep the residential rates very low and accept the plaudits
of the residents of the city. But because they have leaned so heavily, they get a higher percentage of their revenues from commercial real estate taxes than any other city. The crash promises to devastate the city's revenue flow in the coming years.
So what to do about it? Well? The mayor Mayor.
Michelle wou has suggested that she wants the authority from state legends to jack up the commercial tax rate to make up for any shortfall.
Well, this has the commercial property.
Owners just orbiting the earth with fury. And the fact is, surprise, surprise, capital is mobile. And you're seeing already an exodus of a commercial real estate investment of from downtown Boston, where it's been booming in recent years, to the near suburbs, or to other states, and.
That keeps up Boston's in big trouble.
Joe, Wow, John, this is a really important story, and I haven't heard it frame this way until now, almost as if she was listening and reading your column that we're talking about.
Here.
I see in the Globe today the Boston Globe Governor Mara Healy announcing the administration they're providing fifteen million dollars to extend a city program that converts under used office buildings to house John, I've got less than a minute left. Is that the.
Answer, Well, it might be part of the solution. There are problems with that, though. Converting office towers buildings that were designed for office use to residential is in general a hugely expensive proposition, and Boston lags behind other cities like San Francisco in providing what appeared to be the necessary incentives to developers to go in and do that. There's just a handful of projects under way here, so they're going to have to get more creative than that.
There's a lot of ideas floating around, but the political class around here in Boston at least, is lagging well behind this new landscape of economic reality.
Joe, they call him Keller at Large up in New England, John Keller. Great to have you find that story in Boston Magazine. You'll learn a lot smart from a dear friend, John Keller. Thanks for being with us on Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.