You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Welcome. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington, where it is a ghost town. The House and Senate are out. President still in San Francisco. He's going in Delaware later tonight for the weekend. It's a Thanksgiving feel. Actually, there's a Christmas tree across the street from the bureaus. So I don't know. Maybe we're just fast forwarding through this whole thing. So thanks for being with us, whether you're on the radio,
on the satellite, or on YouTube. Find us on YouTube now search Bloomberg Global News, and I'll remind you later to subscribe to the podcast because we've got a lot of good stuff we're packing into two hours here, beginning with what's happening in Israel on the terminal. The latest story that we're following has to do with relief in Gaza.
Israel says it will allow two diesel tankers per day into Gaza to support water and sewage system, prevent an outbreak of disease in this This is happening, of course, against the backdrop of in many cases, door to door fighting with the IDF trying to rid Gaza of Hamas, and it brings us to the situation at the hospital in Gaza. Now, this has been going on for days. We've talked about it here, IDF troops entering the hospital, and we even had the Minister of the Economy from
Israel tell us here on Bloomberg. They believe that a Hamas headquarters was below that hospital, and Israel has been under a lot of pressure to justify this move. They're out with a video now showing a tunnel that they discovered, the opening the entry point yes in the hospital, as troops try to neutralize this threat and also protect civilians
and patients inside. The director of the Al Shifa Hospital giving us some numbers here, there are still more than six hundred and fifty patients, five hundred medical staff, and five thousand displaced people all in that hospital. Can you imagine what it is like in that building? True also do their work there on behalf of the IDF, and now that we're seeing video of this tunnel, I can only imagine what's happening next. But the wto the World
Trade Organization says we have a problem here. They've recorded at least one hundred and thirty seven attacks on healthcare in Gaza, where now nine out of thirty five hospitals are partially functioning according to Palestinian health authorities. The rest have shut down. And the latest polling that we're seeing now from Quinnipiac is quite remarkable. The shift in sentiment among Americans over what is happening here in Israel has
been pronounced over the last month. The university out with these numbers showing the number of voters in America sympathizing more with Palestinians more with Palestinians increased by double digits compared to a survey last month, from thirteen percent to twenty four percent. The shift largely driven by respondents under thirty five years old. And that's where we start our conversation today with Hidar Suskin, the president and CEO for the group Americans for Peace Now is with us. Adar,
I appreciate your time and welcome to Bloomberg. We can have a debate here about Israel's motivations and the justification it has to wage a war with Hamas. But I'd like to talk to you about the effort here to save civilian lives. And I wonder what you see as the most important thing that happens. Now we've got pauses in place, What is next?
Hi, First of all, thank you for inviting me. I'm happy to be here with you today. I think there are unfortunately no easy answers in this conversation. There are a lot of bad options and a lot of difficult choices, and the need to protect civilian lives Israeli and Palestinian civilian lives should be paramount for everyone, for Israelis, for Hamas, and for the American government. Unfortunately, that's not what we've seen much of on the ground, and those losses have
been massive and tragic on both sides. And I think, again, as you said, without getting into the justification for the war, which I'm happy to talk about it if you want to, there's no doubt that greater precautions and greater careny to be taken to protectively in lives. I'm glad to see
that fuel allowed into Gaza. It will help. It will help with the salination plants, so there are clean water with electricity, but it represents approximately six or seven percent of the daily amount of fuel that was going in prior to the war, and it's clearly insufficient for the needs of the population there.
Fuel also means the bakeries can start functioning again, so people can get bread. Israel, says Headar, it wants to evacuate the Al Shifa hospital. I just ran through some numbers. It's larger than some small towns, the number of people who are housed there right now, What is the right path for Israel when it comes to neutralizing the threat below the hospital and protecting the people who are in it.
It's difficult, and again there's no easy options here. You have two truths. One is that Hamas embeds itself in civilian populations. Hamas does things like set up headquarters in hospitals and schools and other such places. That's an unequivocal truth. It's also true that even if they do that, even if they commit that act, which is a war crime, it doesn't justify the killing of civilians, even if even if that is unintentional. Intention has no part in this.
So Israel is in a very difficult situation. It needs to defend itself, and it needs to respond to the really horrific attacks that took place on October seventh and make sure that Hamas is not able to do something like that again. But it also has a moral and legal responsibility as well as a political one, to do so in a way that minimizes the loss of innocent civilian lives and that really honors the sanctity of all life.
And I know you're referring to both sides in this. You wrote an op ed in the Hill the headline in Israel and Gaza, I choose the side of humanity, realizing that Hamas chooses the other. Is that fair?
Well? Again, the end of that was not in the headline, But yes, look, Hamas has made it clear.
No, I added that I'm asking you that question based on your head Yeah.
Yeah, I mean Hamas has made it clear long before October seventh, but certainly with its horrific attack, which is a massacre of civilians, a massacre of innocent people, women, children, infants, that they don't respect human life, and frankly, the fact that they embed themselves among the civilian population in Gaza, the fact that they have food and fuel and other materials, so that they don't give to the civilian population of Gaza makes it clear that they don't have that respect
for the sanctity of human life. The question that Israel face isn't the question that we as leaders in the United States face is simply whether we're going to take
the same position as Hamas or not. And for me, part of that point of choosing the side of humanity is moving away from what we've seen so much of on the quote pro Israel side and pro pro Palestinian side, of people just trying to score points for their team, people trying to prove that Israelis are all right and justice and righteous and just, or Palestinians are all righteous and just. This is not that simple, and it's not
a sporting event where you cheer for your team. These are the real lives of real people and incredibly difficult questions that don't have easy answers but need to be addressed.
Does Benjamin Netanya, who respects the lives of Palestinian civilians.
Look? I think it is unbelievably evident that Benjamin Natona, who and his entire government have failed that frankly, was clear in many ways before October seventh, but on October seventh, it became clear that they failed at what is the fundamental function of government, which is protecting the lives of
its civilians. And his response, what we've seen taking place in Gaza since then, as well as what we've seen in the West Bank, and frankly, what we saw before October seventh is that Benjamin n'atagne who values his own political future and that is his priority. He puts that ahead of, frankly, the good of the Israeli people and certainly the good of the Palestinian people.
What do you make of the Quinnipiac University poll that came out yesterday I mentioned at the top of the hour here we are seeing a shift the number of voters in America sympathizing more with Palestinians, increasing by double digits from the same survey last month. And it's not a surprise to see that driven by people under thirty five.
Those who are old, older, and particularly those over sixty five are far more likely to hold the opposite positions, and that probably represents lawmakers here in Washington and the active voting public a lot more. But was this a surprise to you or is something that you expect to see continue.
Yeah, it's certainly not a surprise. I think given what we are seeing, the images that are coming out of Gaza, the stories and the reports that we're hearing, I'm not surprised at this at all. I agree with what you said that that doesn't reflect certainly not Congress, and frankly probably not the majority of voting Americans. You know, these polls I often honestly find very problematic and not very
helpful beyond a broad talking point. Because if you ask me, am I pro Israel, I would say yes, I'm an Israeli citizen, I am an IDF veteran. If you ask me I am I pro Palestinian, I would also say yes. I don't think those things can be mutually exclusive. Not only that they should didn't be, but they can't be.
And I say that because this war is going to come to an end, not as soon as I would like it to, and I don't know when, but it will end, and when it does, there will still be Israelis there, and when it does, there will still be Palestinians there, and those Israelis and those Palestinians have to find a better way to live and work together. Going
to the future. There's literally simply no option. So somebody who tells me that they are pro Israel but anti Palestinian is not pro Israel, and the same the other way around.
We're spending some time talking with Hadar Suskin, the President's CEO of the group Americans for Peace Now, and a very important piece of information as a former member of the IDF is you just told us what do you think your former brothers in arms are going through here being asked to carry out incredibly dangerous operations in Gaza.
Brothers and sisters. First of all, I will say Israel certainly is one among the leaders in having integrated in terms of gender its armed forces, including its combat forces. Look again, I think that the attacks of the seventh required a military response. No country would or should allow an attack like that on its citizens. A massacre of somewhere between twelve and fourteen hundred people two hundred and forty or so people take in hostage. So a military
response sadly was necessary. But that's not a blank check, and that doesn't mean any military response is okay. The responsibility for that and for what the actions are and what the decisions are, of course rests with the political leadership, not the day to day soldiers. But tell you, along with many friends and many colleagues and acquaintances, I have a nephew who is a combat soldier in the IDF right now, and they are going through terrible, terrible things.
And again there's you know, there's no one side to this. Obviously, the people of Gaza are suffering unimaginable horrors, but so too have the people of Israel, and so too have the soldiers of the IDF, many of whom have lost their lives in this recent bount of the conflict and been injured, and again, like everyone involved, been traumatized.
I'm really glad you could make some time for us. Hdar thank you for being with us. He runs the group Americans for Peace Now. Hidar Suskin, we thank you for joining.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in alf, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
George Santos the congressman from New York, is going to hold a news conference. He's scheduled a news conference for the Thursday after Thanksgiving, November thirty. Will he resign? I can only imagine after the news yesterday the Ethics Committee in the House out with its report on Santos. Skating is the word the news organizations are going with. And my goodness, Santos improperly diverting thousands of dollars, as we read from his campaign for personal use everything from botox
to luxury items. And they're actually going through with this. The chair of the Ethics Committee, Michael Gas this is a Republican by the way, it's Republican led House has done the deed. He filed a privileged resolution to expel Santos during today's pro forma session. It's the one piece of business that matters today in Washington, and that starts the clock ticking, gives you two legislative days to deal
with this. So next week could be something here, although well they've headed home for Thanksgiving, so we might have to wait a minute. Back into town here, the news conference is going to be well attended. I think we'll reassemble our panel for their take on Things, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors. It does look like the writing is on the wall here, Genie, Is this the end of George Santos's political career?
It is one way or the other. You know, at least this pushed him to announce that he is not going to seek reelection. But I do think if they go for a vote, he will be expelled at this point. But boy, what a horrific, ugly, dirty ending to I think maybe, and I wouldn't say this lightly. One of the ugliest years in the modern history of Congress. So it is quite a way to end the year.
And you know, you.
Think about it, not just botox, but what he was spending his campaign funds on. At least on Thursday, when he holds the press conference, we know he'll be well dressed and he'll look good. Joe, so because he's been spending an awful lot to shore himself up for that.
He's got a lot of sweaters, that's for sure. Rick, will he resigned before his colleagues have a chance to vote him out.
If he's smart, he will.
You know, that would certainly.
Create a little different environment when they get back on the twenty eighth of November. As you mentioned, it's not often that you get this kind of a resolution by the chairman of the Ethics Committee. He's already been tested twice on getting votes for his expulsion, maybe third times to charm and I think this whole idea of press conference on the thirtieth, I mean, he may not be a member by the thirtieth of November, so you know, I don't know why anybody would show up to hear
him talk about why he was expelled from Congress. But the bottom line is I actually see it as a positive. It shows you that the Ethics Committee is working, that it's been bipartisan that is actually doing its job, and that maybe together Republicans and Democrats can celebrate the fact that they can police their own ranks. For a change. All we've talked about since Santos was elected is what a blight he is on the Republican Party and how
he makes kind of a joke of the institution. And maybe it got to the point where members are going to start thinking about their own image of the institution, what's good for it for a change. Certainly, as Genie said, been a rough year in that regard, but maybe we're entering the end of this year in a different tone.
He'd be the first member expelled since James Traffick hit which god, that was back in two thousand and two. It's been a long time since this has happened, Genie, So beam me up. What do you think does he resign before he gets thrown out?
To Rick's point, if he has any sense, and gosh, I'm not sure he does. But if he has any sense, he will resign.
You know.
The reality is is that the committee and again bipartisan, in unanimous, with this scathing report, they didn't even vote or go forward with a formal expulsion recommendation because it would have extended this ugly chaos into next year. So in the interest of getting this over quickly, pulling the band aid quickly, they decided not to go in that direction. And so it really is something. I mean, Ken Buck, the congressman from Colorado, said, George, now is the time
to resign. Then you have some quiet days over the Thanksgiving holidays to clean out your office, and gosh, I wish he and hope he is listening to that, but again there's no telling what he is thinking. And what he's doing. But you know, I think Kathy Holpel, the governor of New York's got to get her pen ready. If he does resign, She's got days to call for a special election, and that is going to be a
big deal. A lot of candidates in the offing on both sides to try to contest for that seat that Biden won by eight points that district.
Yeah, that'll be a riot. No one would be surprised if it turned democratic in a state that has been pretty kind to Republicans lately. Rick, if this actually happens, does it start a conversation about a double standard in the Republican Party when it comes to Donald Trump?
You know, it could.
There's a lot of sensitivity on both sides of the aisle about not jumping ahead of the process. And so you know the fact that the Ethics Committee kind of plowed the field for the idea of going forward with this, even though no one has actually convicted Santos of wrongdoing the overwhelming way of the evidence and the expansive report, I mean, typically the Ethics Committee only releases like a
half a pager on their investigation, fifty pages of indictment. Again, Representative Santos was presented and it just overwhelmingly indicts him on his behavior. So yeah, I think that there will be some thought about around the vote, especially are we creating a moral equivalency here about Donald Trump? But my guess is people are just gonna want to put the blinders on and say, like, this is about George Santos and we've got to We've got to get him out of our institution.
Do you each have thoughts on what he does here other than potentially go to jail if that's where this is going with his criminal case? Genie, Does he go to reality TV? This country loves a rehabilitation story, right? Is he going to be on the talk show circuit? What happens?
Yeah?
I can only imagine maybe he'll start a podcast, you know, maybe he will go into fashion. I can't even guess what he will do next. But gosh, it would be great to get him out of politics and.
Out of the House.
And nobody wants that more than his constituents in that Long Island district. The Republicans are pulling their hair out that he has been sitting there wasting their votes for two years now, not even on a committee.
Right, I've only got thirty seconds. Again, Rick, could he get a lot of money for a book? Is that actually what comes next?
I think a TV show would be better. I mean it'd be part comedy in part drama.
And fashion. Apparently, Rick Davis Genie Shanzano have some final thoughts with us straight ahead. This is really happening. George Santos read about it. We've got a great story on the terminal and at Bloomberg dot com if you want to understand the charges and what was inside that ethics report. It's a reader. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App.
We're listening on demand wherever you get your podcasts. As we consider our station in life here going into the Thanksgiving break and what was done this week, what was actually accomplished and what has yet to be done. It's a much longer list on the other side here, and that's where we're going to begin our conversation with Mark short I just rattled through his business card. It's a long one, as he straddles both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.
This is the insider conversation that I was promising for head of the Republican Conference in the House, former chief of Staff to Vice President Mike Penn's great.
To see you, sir, Thanks thanks for having me on.
Absolutely so we have waited a shutdown. We could take a minute to celebrate that. Right, we're not shutting down this week. Everybody would have been freaking out right now and planning to work over the weekend in any other world.
That's right, and I think we'll probably avoid another one come January and February. But it does at least extend it for a couple of months, as opposed to all the way through the next fiscal year. But I think that House Republicans seemed to be coming to acceptance that they don't control the Senate or the White House, and so their negotiate and leverage here isn't quite the same.
It is I think somewhat ironic, Joe that the deal that Kevin McCarthy negotiated just a few weeks back that he ended up getting removed from a speakership for actually had sixty billion dollars less than spending than this CR does. So, you know, for all those members who were claiming that they were fighting for principle on fiscal sanity, I think it's it's been clearly exposed early. It's more of a personal problem with Kevin for them than it was really over policy.
Well, I know some members are getting a little annoyed already. We're hearing Chip Royce. He's got two strikes against him already. Should they have fixed that motion of vacate before you already answered? My next question is you don't think we're going to shut down in January? That probably means though he's got to work with Democrats again, So is he going to run into the same trouble as his predecessor again?
I think the reality is that the Republics are going to have to work with Democrats because they controlled the Senate and the White House, and so whether it's inside the House conference, I think I think the old position always was the stronger bill you can get out of, the more negotiating leverage you have. But I think there's some conservatives I think coup on principle, take a position that they will never vote for CR and that Congress
should do its job and pass appropriations bills. Then margin is so narrow that that means that you're never going to anything but ACR right now, because you're going to have to work with Democrats to get one pass out of the House.
So the idea of regular order by whatever it is February second, that's not what we're talking about here. You think there might be another stop gap, It wouldn't be a year long, right that would that would be the end of the speaker.
I'm assuming, well, I do think they'll get it. You'll get a CR that'll finish to the rest of the fiscal year. I'm not sure that the Republicans are in a position right now, having gone through the exercise with Kevin, that they want to remove another speaker, So I do think that that's what'll end up. I think at the same time, there'll be appropriations bills put forward in the House that try to pass. I'm skeptical that they'll actually get all twelve done, So I think you end up with another CR.
Yes, I want to ask you, of course, about the rest of the job here. It's not just funny the government, but the supplemental by request Israel, Ukraine, we talk about it every day, and there's no real path here, though we've had we've had members of the Senate tell us they think they might actually be able to get this over the finish line in December and not prolong a weight into next year. Are they speaking a different language still than the House on this?
I think that I'm probably optimistic as well that inevitably they'll be funding for Ukraine and Israel, but I'm probably thinking that won't be a standalone bill. I think that's probably something that comes forward combined with the CR in January of February, because at that point, if you've if you're accepting the conversation you and I already having that
inevitably you're gonna need a bipartisan c our bill. Then I think the Senate will have more leverage at that point to go out and attach the additional sulflemental funding because because Johnson's not able to get a Republican only build out of the House, so you're gonna have to do something to buy Partison anyhow, So at that point it makes more sense to attach.
That funding hinging on an agreement some breakthrough that we've waited decades for on border security? Is that fair?
You know, I'm probably less optimistic on the border security funding. I think that a lot of Republicans are anxious to see that. But I think, as Ron De Santis said from the debate stage a few weeks back, the reality is with the Biden administrations proposing in border security funding is really just more funding to facilitate more asylum processing and to actually allow more refugees into the United States. And I don't think that's really what Republicans are looking for.
They want they want bricks and work. They want to change on wall, right, So that's probably less optimistic on the border security inter piece of it.
Boy, I have to ask you about this. We're just talking about George Santos. It's an interesting scenario here because of an election in Utah. It might actually be a wash. If George Santos has expelled, the Republican majority remains the same. I don't know if that matters to you. Do you think he resigns before he's expelled? Do you think the votes are there to expel.
Well, first, I don't think it's a wash because I think the Utah seat is pretty much guaranteed to be a Republican seat. So the reality is we're going to pick up that seat regardless, and I think that you're going to be down one more member when either he's expelled or he is or he does resign. I don't I don't pretend to know what's in his head is what he's he's going to do. I think he's gonna do whatever gets them in the most press attention.
Called a news conference for November three.
I could see him coming back and having a press conference and uh, but ultimately pulling out right before the vote if he feels like he's gonna lose the hell.
So he's probably taking a temperature and seeing where I think he is, probably comes together over Thanksgiving. Does the conference want him out?
I think the conference, well, I think they're competing interest. I think for a lot of members they probably do want him out. At the same time, we've talked about
how narrow the majority is. It's not like they can really afford additional seats, and and I think you're seeing more and more announcements to retirements, and some of those people may not wait till next November, so that that majority could even get even smaller, which is why I think a lot of Republicans would probably want to say, like, we just see he's announced he's not gonna run again. Let's get to to next November. But I don't think
that that's going to last. I think he'll probably be pushed out sooner.
Why what a story that we won't be able to say that the latest since James traffickant anymore if this actually happens. Spending time with Mark Short, I have to ask you about the campaign trail. The former vice president is no longer running, and we're seeing a surge here, it seems for Nicky Haley's campaign. Are those associated somehow?
I'm not so convinced they are, And I'm actually I think there's been a surge in the press coverage and a surge and donor support for Nicki Haley, which is not in consequence of Joe. Those are very important things that you need. But at the same time, you've seen actually former President Trump's numbers go up into the sixties.
Yeah, how about that?
And so even though there's maybe a small boost for Nicki or a small boost for DeSantis or even Chris Christy in New Hampshire, the reality is that is that Donald Trump is leading the field by forty to fifty points, well.
We've got a Monmouth pole now, yet I remembers some pole the other day show Nicki Haley vaulting into second place, Hampshire rondesstant Is falling to four. It does seem like there is a bit of a shift in the so called race for second.
There are changing places in the race for second, but the delta between where that is and where Donald Trump is remains the sensitive.
Yeah.
Absolutely, but it's also not lost on me that the only other voice on the debate stage with foreign policy experience has left, and that suddenly makes Nicky Haley unique in the field.
I think it does create a separation for in the debate, which is important. I think anytime you're in a crowded field, you want to have something that segments the market and differentiates yourself. And I think that with everything going on in the Middle East right now, it does give her.
A much bigger platform to speak from. At this moment.
This is not a race, though different than other cycles, not a race for vice president right Donald Trump doesn't want any of them, and it doesn't seem they want to be with him, isn't that.
I think that people's ambitions are such that what they might proclaimed during the camp trail that they may be more willing to serve in that role. And I think you may also see that the former president Trump is more willing to extend that offer if he feels like it's advantageous to him. So I wouldn't I wouldn't ruin any of them out yet to be to be a vice presidential pick Donald Trump.
Nikkiy Haley, I mean she worked for him. She brings the foreign policy experience and apparently a slightly different base of support. I suppose anything is possible, but there'd be a lot of tape to play back up.
Yeah, I don't want to pretend that she's running for that at this point. I think she is running for president. I do think that the president, former president is has pointed many times how she made a pledge that she would never run against him, and yet she did. And so I'm not I'm not I want to. I don't want any way to predict that that's where we're gonna end up. Sure, but I do think that people's ambitions are such that their stated principles can be somewhat more flexible.
Well, I'd love to hear from you a little bit more about your former boss, and I'm sure that you still talk to Mike Pence he had support him or not. Kind of a unique spot on that stage, and I wonder to what effect he might be able to help affect the outcome of this campaign, whether he's going to reserve that until later, or maybe this is just a completely different chapter as you go back in the media, What do you see in the future for him.
I think he's gonna have a lot of different opportunities Joe. Right now. I don't think that he's in a hurry
to endorse in this race. I think he needs to play out some but I think he had the opportunity on the stage to talk about concerns he has about where our party is going in candily, where the conservative movement is going in many cases, I think walking away from his time honor principles of limited government in pursuit of a more populist appeal in many ways, walking away from our alliances and partnerships with democracies across the globe and wanting to retreat and be more of an appeasing
isolationist approach. And so he was able to make those points. I think you're going to continue to here and make those points in the future.
Is he glad he ran oh?
I think he felt he felt like it was a blessing to get to spend so much time with voters in Iowa New Hampshire, and I think he was grateful that he had a chance to make those points on the stage.
It's really something when you consider his career, particularly at the end of the Trump administration, is involvedment in January sixth and the voice that he had, which is why I'm curious to see what it might become, because I feel like he's probably not done here. But this is a pretty complex time you're going to be on the campaign trail, I guess, and I know you watched this
very closely. Is the media getting it right or wrong on Rond de Santis because he's being labeled as the Jeb Bush of this campaign.
I think that they're actually getting it wrong at this point. I think there's no doubt that there was a lot of inflation from the media about the Santa's candidacy before he ran in there miss expects and so then therefore the narrative is one that compares him more to Jeb and it's sort of the notion of collapse. But I think right now to Santa's in the second place in Iowa, which is the first caucus, and so I think that we have to wait to get through that Iowa and
then we can reassess where Desante's campaign is. I think it's premature to right an obituary that suggests that he's following the saint path as.
Jeb bush Well would you see? You know how Iowa can can really be a game changer. It can shake things up and then it can happen again in New Hampshire frequently against the grain here you remember Mike Huckabee winning Rick Santorum. Is Iowa going to surprise us this time?
I think there will be a surprise and Iaowa, whether or not it's somebody wins or whether not somebody simply comes in a much closer second place or Donald Trump. The expectation right now that I think the Trump campaign has pushed is one that he's going to run away with this. And so even if there's a candidate who finishes, let's say within ten points, I think for a lot of media it's going to be WHOA wait a second,
maybe this is actually closer. And so I do think that the Trump campaign has built up exceedingly high expectations for how they would do in Iowa New Hampshire, and I do think that Iowa relishes the chance to sort of change the narrative. Iowa voters take it very seriously. As you mentioned Santorum and Huckabee as well as Barack Obama.
That's right.
All these candidates were pulling really in Obama's case in the low double digits, but others high single digits, shook them until the fall, and so I think that people forget as well. In twenty sixteen, Donald Trump did not win Iowa. People just assumed that he did, but it actually was Ted Cruz who won the long time, and so yeah, I think there will be surprises in Iowa well.
So to that end, it was remarkable to watch the dominos fall in the Democratic primary between Iowa New Hampshire South Carolina in twenty twenty Joe Biden. We were doing exit interviews with Joe Biden in Manchester and all of a sudden, what the heck? Everybody dropped out within three hours or something and goes flying into South Carolina and
he's He's anointed essentially the nominee. Are we going to see an attempt, maybe not a successful one, but an attempt to clear the field here and identify an alternative Donald Trump coalesce around it.
Well, I think the market forces do that naturally. The reality is, if you don't have the fundraising to continue on, it's hard to continue on. And I think we're already down to really four principal candidates, and you may be in a narrow field by the time you get to Iowa. So I don't know how much more there is, But Joe, I do think I probably have a less contemporary perspective on this. I think for a lot of the media of the notion is, hey, you just need to get
down to one alternative to Trump. And I think that what we've seen is that as candidates get out of the raise, it almost builds more inevitability that Trump is going to be the nominee. As we just talked about, as Cannas has gotten out, you've actually seen Trump numbers get up above sixty percent, and as Ron DeSantis's numbers collapsed or in this campaign, it wasn't like that went to the rest of the field. That support went back
to Donald Trump. And so I'm not buying this in this I think conventional wisdom that says, hey, there needs to be one alternative to Trump. I think in actuality, as candidates fall out, it builds more an ability that Trump will be the nominee.
Unreal. It's like the gravitational pull of the sun. Mark Short, great to see you, Happy Thanksgiving.
Happy Thanksgiving to you.
Always a pleasure to have you at the table here, Republican strategist Mark Short with us in a fascinating conversation as you would expect here on sound On, I'm Joe Matthew at Washington.
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Patrick Dehan does this for a living. You've heard him before on sound On, and he's with us again now, the head of petroleum analysis at gas Buddy. It's great, Dave, Patrick, welcome back as we talk again ahead of another holiday weekend, looking at crude. As I mentioned WTI your seventy six dollars a gallon and a national average at three point thirty three. What's it going to look like once we really get into the throes of wintertime.
Well, I think we'll continue to moderate here. We've seen a lot of downward pressure in the last four weeks on WTI prices, so that's translated to certainly cheaper gasoline prices. We're also in the midst of seasonality. Americans simply not driving as much, even though they're on the doorstep of Thanksgiving, Americans really toning down their gasoline consumption. That's put a
lot of downward pressure on prices as well. In addition, refineries wrapping up their maintenance and they're going to have to find a place to put all that gasoline, and all of that, coupled together with less risk from the Middle East, has certainly caused an eight week drop in the price of gasoline. The national average now at three point thirty one a gallon. That's the lowest tally since February. So just in time for a driving holiday, we're greeted with some of the lowest prices in months.
Sounds kind of rituitive. I have to have been one. I hear references to less risk in the Middle East. I know there was a great concern about a second front, that this might expand into something involving Iran if it isn't already on a proxy level here. But is it just a matter of expectations because we've still got a hot war going in Gaza.
Yeah, it is. It's managing expectations. There is also less risk in this area. Israel obviously not a major oil producer, but as you mentioned, this is more of a risk about Iran, and certainly Iran has even suggested in recent weeks to Hamas that it's not going to get involved in this, so that further reduces the amount of risk. Of course, something could change, but all of this, the takeaway is really that this is not impacting or slowing down the flows of crude oil out of the Middle East,
and that's why oil prices. Initially there was a little bit of a risk, but this never really affected gas prices. It could not overpower the seasonality that by the way, we'll continue and now with crudit seventy six dollars a barrel. Though it's up today, I still think there's a pretty good shot that we could retest the lows that we saw last winter when the national average bottomed out at three zero five a gallon.
And that's an economic indicator, right, that's a cooling economy, which would be consistent with a lot of the data we're seeing. There's really fewer is reliable though, as the price of gas.
Yeah, certainly the price of gasoline and economic barometer, and of course the price of gas is contingent on gasoline consumption and that's been weakening. So certainly some signals from consumption, which gas Buty's latest estiment last week, the US consumed eight point four to six million barrels. I know the EIA data was quite a bit higher, almost a midsummer print, but our data is suggestive of a consumer that's a bit reluctant to fill up at the same pace they
did even a weeks prior. So certainly not a positive sign in the economy. But you know, Americans feeling the lower prices. Sixty thousand stations now crossing out of states with gasoline under three dollars, twelve states under three dollars, so a lot more Americans looking at the pump and feeling a little bit more normal, it may not boost their holiday spending.
You sound optimistic as we spend time with Patrick to hunt from gas Buddy. We keep asking the White House about refilling the spr and when you see seventy five dollars a barrel, we're getting back into that range that the Energy Department said it was comfortable with. Are we about to see a lot more bids because I know it's not as simple as just going in the market and buying these barrels, or is this just something that's going to take a generation because so much has been used.
Well, I mean, I'd really be hoping with the moves that the Department of Energy and the White House has been making and preparation to fill this that now that the strike price, you know, was hit seventy nine dollars a varrow was the price that the DOE clearly outlined, I'd be hoping that they were active in the market. Now. They did just announce last week a one point six million barrel buy back. That's you know, as we know, that's a needle in the haystack kind of amount. So
they really need to ramp up. And as long as the price of WTI has remained below seventy nine dollars. I really hope that the government's in a position to buy back at these prices, considering the average selling price you know last year was ninety five dollars a barrel.
When we consider folks heating their homes this winter, what's the gap going to look like between those who use heating oil and those who use natural gas.
Well, natural gas has come down far more than what we've seen for heating oil, and simply because in light of the Russia warn Ukraine, there's been a lot of changes, a lot of increase in natural gas production. And we benefited last year from a warmer than expected winter as well. You know, we just did not see withdraws from natural gas reserves is significant, and so we came out of winter above average, and now natural gas inventories have continued to run well average, and so that's put a lot
of downward pressure on natural gas prices. But home heating oil is subject to the refining constraints that we've been dealing with the last few years, and they aren't completely resolved. I mean, more refining capacities come online, but all it would take is one you know, extended period, a couple of weeks of bone chilling temperatures in the Northeast for those home heating oil prices to shoot up to potentially four or fifty or five dollars a gallon.
Again, well, you just answered my next question, then, so is this the year to cut up the oil tank again, get rid of it and go to natural gas?
Well, I think now more than ever, you know, I do expect home heating oil price to be lower than last year. But to your point, there's probably never been a better time more cost savings associated with making the jump over to natural gas, and that's that's what we've been seeing recent here. So I'm sure that's a trend that will continue.
Patrick. It's good to have you. I don't know if you're driving, is someone in your business actually get in the car around Thanksgiving? Or is that the reason why?
You know, I was out of scouting prices just a couple hours ago. I've been making the rounds and you know, pleasantly surprised. But I'll be staying home for Thanksgiving, and you know, I was talking to some other folks as well that you know, a lot of us seem to be staying closer to home and gas buddy survey found that a lot of Americans forty one percent are hitting the road, but that means a lot of them aren't.
Wait, you're really driving around scouting gas prices. You have some way to get the prices in another way.
I was scouting prices as I was running around to get ready for Thanksgiving next week.
I guess you can't help yourself. I love the image of I can't I have to gas station to gas station. Well absolutely, yeah, your first hand reporting. It's good to have you. Patrick, Happy Thanksgiving. I hope you have a safe holiday. Come back and see us again soon. The head of petroleum analysis at gasbuddy dot com. I picture him like Henry Hill driving or I'll look it up the midshields. It's not a helicopter. Patrick, Thanks for listening
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