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Here in Washington alongside Joe Matthew. Of course, we've had our eyes on the Middle East for the last several days after the death of six hostages that were being held by Hamas over the weekend, including one American hirscheld Poland, and of course this has put renewed emphasis on the Biden administration's efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement that would
see the return of the remaining hostages. The problem is you need two parties to agree to that, Hamas and of course Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who even in the aftermath of this weekend's events, seemed pretty stubborn in his convictions.
We say yes, they say no all the time, but they also murder these people, and now we need maximum pressure on Commas. I don't believe that either President Biden or anyone serious about achieving peace and achieving the release would seriously ask Israel Israel to make these concessions. We've already made them.
And so we start this day in Washington without a sense of what the next stage in this story is. Much of the focus Kayley has been around the Philadelphia Corridor, that area along the border of Egypt and Gaza. Net Nyahuo says the IDF will not be leaving that area, and that may be what a ceasefire actually hinges on right now.
Yeah, of course, we've heard from John Kirby, the spokesperson for the National Security Council, earlier today when speaking to reporters, he says they're still working on a ceasefire agreement, but we know that the same sticking points have been stuck there sometimes.
That's right before we start our conversation with Courtney McBride. I'm glad to say is with us, a Bloomberg national security reporter with us here in Washington. Courtney's great to say, and I hope you had a good long weekend. Thanks for joining us here as we try to figure out with so much noise, exactly where things stand. I believe it was the Washington Post over the weekend at with reporting that the US was working on a best and
final offer on a cease fire. Is that negotiating through the media or is that actually where we are in this That.
Seems to be where things stand. Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln did say in August when we were in Israel that this could be the last opportunity for a peace agreement. Now he also say that the US is not backing away and will continue to push. But the sense is now that the US negotiating with Israel, Egypt and Katar, working and leasing with Hamas are really trying to get to in the coming days of final offer. Whether they frame it that way publicly is an open question.
Well, of course, we've heard briefly from President Biden over this past week, and he was asked whether or not he thought Prime Minister Netanyah, who was doing enough to achieve a ceasefire. He said no. He was also asked when he would speak with him. He said eventually. Why not soon?
Courtney, Well, I mean the administration has been pretty clear that, you know, they'll have conversations at whatever level they think are going to be productive. So it's it's possible that at this stage the President doesn't think that he'd be able to accomplish something in terms of moving and deal forward, but we expect to see some sort of proposal, you know,
in the coming days. The US has said and Israel has said that Metao agreed to the bridging agreement, but that you know, there continue to be implementation questions, you know, centered on the Philadelphia corridor, as you both mentioned.
Could a temporary withdrawal from the corridor be enough to get a cease fire? Even if a temporary cease fire in place, that seems to be something that some members of NTNYA whose work Habinet want but he does not.
There's certainly internal disagreement over that within the Israeli government. But you know, as you know, as Natanello said, you know, both parties have to agree, and we're you know, we're we're not sure sort of where where the sticking points are. But the understanding that we have, you know, from from our conversations is both Israel and Hamas are going to have to make some concessions, uh in order to come to an agreement, and we're just not there yet.
We have an understanding of whether or not the calculus for the Israeli government changes with the knowledge that Hamas is actually willing to execute the hostages if they think they're on the verge of being rescued. Have they not been operating under the assumption that Hamas was going to want to use these human beings as leverage and therefore they would be somewhat protective and protected until Israel can get to that well.
I mean, again, this is an area where there there seems to be disagreement within even the war cabinet. But you know, Hamas has been pretty clear about its its willingness to uh to use, as you said, to use
individuals as leverage, as you know, as human shields. But you know, there are many of these Arael governments who say that they are they're going to continue these efforts to rescue the hostages, but there is that possibility that they are killed in the process, either in an operation to rescue them or when Hamas decides that the Israeli government or the military is getting too close.
We've been showing images on Bloomberg TV and on YouTube of these massive protests. We saw general strike yesterday Sunday into Monday, tens of thousands of people on the streets. Benjaminettnia, who moved by those optics.
I mean, he gave a speech Monday evening that suggested he is firm in his resolve, he is not going to change his position, certainly on the Philadelphia corridor, and that this, if anything, should reinforce the decision to try to seek the rescue of hostages as opposed to simply negotiating or conceding more to Hamas.
All right, Bloomberg's Courtney McBride, great reporting. Think you so much for joining us, even though certainly it is difficult subject matter to say the least, especially considering there are still more than a hundred hostages remaining in Gaza at this time, in a number of families who certainly are struggling with this. Right now, we want to continue this conversation with Democratic Congressman Jake Auchencloss of Massachusetts, who is joining us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Sir, it's
great to have you. I know you had previously met with Hirsh's parents, so I'm sure that this hits home in a very real way to you. Given the ties to Massachusetts. What needs to be done so that no other parent or no other family member needs to go through what they are currently going through. What do the next steps need to be for the US and for Israel.
I appreciate you having me on this has been a nightmare.
I was able to speak with Rachel and John Hirsh's parents, and as you said, Hirsh had strong connections to Massachusetts. I learned from some of his friends and associates about what a warm and wonderful person he was who made everyone around him better. And I had a hard time sleeping that night that I found out that he had been executed in And let's be clear what happened, because
it's been ablighted over too frequently. I think over the last week, Hamas forced these six young people to make videos to their family members and then shot them execution style. Hamas is a barbaric, nihilistic organization and it can have no role in post war governance in Gaza because this cycle of the property will repeat itself. They have broken every cease fire they have ever affixed their seal to. They have the destruction of Israel as part of their charter,
and they will take and execute more hostages. They will rape more Israelian Arab women, and they will continue to amiserate the Palestinian people.
Well, Congressman is a combat veteran marine. You bring a unique perspective that we would like you to draw on in this case, because there are of course questions now about what else the IDF can do here, what else the Israeli military can accomplish, particularly if it involves out of the Philadelphi corridor that we've been talking about along the border with Egypt. As a warrior yourself, is it possible for the IDF to extract hostages using force using rescue operations?
As someone who was a platoon commander myself, I think I know enough as a politician to not weigh in on tactical questions that I don't have field.
Firsthand knowledge of.
But I will of course say that, as Klouswitz wrote more than a century ago, all military operations are an extension of politics by other means. And what that means is it is never sufficient in a war to purely have a military strategem. You also need a political strategem to complement those operations. And this is my frustration with Prime Minister net Yahoo. It's not that he is insisting on Israel's security, It's not that he's insisting on Hamas
being excluded from post war governance. I agree with him on those things. My frustration with the Prime Minister is that he is not offering a vision of reconstruction for a Gaza Palestine and led Arab supported Western BacT that would truly drain Hamas's political capital, because that is what Sinwar fears. Sinmaar does not fear destruction. Sinwar does fear reconstruction, and Prime Minish from nt Ya who is not offering that.
Well, it does seem, Sir, that the President may share in that frustration. He has said on the record this weekend that no, he does not think Benjamin Netanyah who is doing enough to secure a ceasefire. But as President Biden doing enough, is there more the US government could be doing to exercise leverage over both Israel and Amas here.
Well, I think President Biden has walked to tightrope as well as possible in the Middle East. He's rejected calls from the right that would lead to escalation and conflagration in the region through wider military operations. He's also rejected misguided calls from the left that would have led to a early peremptory unilateral ceasefire that would have left the
hostages there and left Hamas in power. But there are no good answers on any day in the Middle East, and the President's doing his utmost to get.
The hostages home and to you offer.
A positive agenda for godz As opposed to the nihilistic one that Hamas offers. I would say, though, that sometimes you got to make the problem bigger. And what I mean by that is this is not just about Israel versus Hamas. This is about an axis of authoritarians and terrorists stretching from China and Russia through Iran and its
proxy terra forces in the Middle East. And one thing that we could do to enact more leverage over these proxy terror forces is to cut off Iran's oil revenues by getting China to agree to stop importing Irani and oil. Right now, Iran is filling its coffers with Chinese money. It's using that money to fund procy terra forces in
the Middle East. And if we can get that deal with China, which I well will admit would be tough, But if we can get that deal with China, we got a lot more leverage in the Middle East.
Well, Congressman, is we consider the strain relations between the Biden White House and Benjamin NETANYAHUO Here we recall hostages being released, a hostage deal with the day that Ronald Reagan was brought into office. And I wonder if you're concerned about a Trump effect here if the narrative is correct that Benjamin Ettyah, who has a better and more trusting relationship with Donald Trump, and that he may be waiting for a Trump administration to strike a deal.
I'm not going to appinn on Prime Minister Netanyah, who's domestic or foreign political machinations. The United States is going to work with the elected head of government that Israel sends, and we are going to try to strike a deal for a temporary cease fire and hostage return and also ensure that Hamas is not permanently in place in Gaza.
And I think it's important that we remember that the US Israel relationship is grounded on values that are much more resilient than any given personalities, either on our side or on their side. This is about democracy, this is about freedom, this is about.
The rule of law.
And while we may have frustrations and disagreements, we are on the same side civilization versus barbarism hamas is on the other side.
Well, if you, sir, don't want to weigh in much on Israel politics, would love to discuss more US politics with you. Considering you'll be returning here to Washington next week along with your colleagues in the House in the Senate, with just a few weeks to go until a government funding deadline. What exactly are you bracing for, sir? Do you expect you're going to have to vote on a continuing resolution?
What I'm bracing for is for the Republicans to refuse to act like grown ups. This is such a preventable government shutdown scenario. Earlier in this Congress, we passed a big bipartisan bill that reduced the federal deficit and responsibly funded federal programs and services, things from Headstart to the US military. It was agreed to by Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Democratic President Joe Biden. It passed with big bipartisan majorities, and then a few weeks later the Republicans
ran away from it. I mean, that's not how grown ups operate in Washington, DC. When you shake cans, you are good to your word, and so the Republicans need to act like adults.
Well, there's reporting, Congressman, I'd love to know if you're hearing about this, that Speaker Mike Johnson wants to bring a stopgap bill to the floor and combine it with the Save Act. This was the proposal that he went to mar A Lago to roll out with Donald Trump a couple of months ago, requiring proof of citizenship in
order to register to vote in a federal election. I know it's primary day up there in Massachusetts, and it's maybe apples and oranges in this case, but the narrative in Washington is this increases the chances of a shutdown. And as we talk to our listeners today on ninety two to nine in Boston, they're listening to us talk right now. Congressman, can you tell them that this is just bluster and that the government will not shut down this fall?
If Hakeem Jeffries had the Speaker's galvil, I could tell them that. But with Republican Speaker Mike Johnson, no, I can't tell them that because he doesn't seem willing to act like a grown up.
This is exactly what I'm talking about.
The Save Act is make up a problem that does not exist, and attaching it to a problem that does exist, which is the federal government imminently shutting down, and trying to conflate the two for political cheap shots.
This is obscene.
And I would also add that I'm not going to take a lecture from Speaker Mike Johnson about election integrity.
This is the man who led the charge to overturn.
The election results in twenty twenty and who has consistently supported President Trump and his big lie and has so damaged our democratic institutions.
And finally, sir, we have about a minute left on the subject of elections. Your seat, of course is safe. You are running unopposed, but that doesn't go for a number of your colleagues. With Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic ballot, are you more confident that you will be a member of the majority not the minority come next January?
It's going to be a close run thing.
Yes, I feel confident, but we got to work for every vote for every day between now an election day. The path to a House majority runs through a couple dozen House seats across a few states, and we need to demonstrate that the Democrats are talking about the future,
whereas the Republicans are talking about the past. You got Donald Trump talking about, for example, a tax policy that dates to the eighteen nineties that would raise cost of living for the average American family by at least two thousand dollars, whereas we got Kamala Harris talking about making housing more affordable. That is the contrast. We need to drive home up and down the ticket.
Congress.
It's good to see if thanks for coming back. We'll meet you back here in Washington, hopefully as soon as next week. Jake Auchincloss, the Democrat of course, Massachusetts fourth District, hailing from the halls of Newtonville, Kayley. Interesting to hear from a Democrat racing for the return of lawmakers at a Republican lighthouse next week.
Yeah, it's going to be a big one. You got the lawmakers returning to Capitol Hill, a presidential debate of course, between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. I think we got some inflation data next week as well. CPI and PPI.
Yeah, little things here have Hamburg that we focus on, and we all put it together in the mosaic that is American politics. And that's why we're here, of course, on the fastest show in politics. Our panel is up next right here. On Bloomberg TV and Radio.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then ron Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven.
Thirty broadcasting live from Washington alongside Joe Matthew on Bloomberg TV and Radio. And of course, if you're listening to us on the radio in Boston, you were doing so on our new Signal ninety two nine FM. As we've mentioned this hour, Joe, it is primary day in Massachusetts. There are still primary right contests that are happening. In the meantime, the general election, frankly, is about to begin.
Not only are we in the post Labor Day sprint to November fifth, but this week some mail in ballot early voting.
Yes, I'm so happy you mentioned this. We're talking about the big two month wind up here.
It starts this week.
North Carolina is where absentee ballots go on Friday, Kayley suggesting that they actually pull this off and the Post Office does its job. People could be voting, submitting votes this week, putting it back in the mailbox on Saturday. Then you go to September sixteenth, and it's Pennsylvania. So the stakes could not be higher. As these two candidates come together in their debate one week from tonight, will of course have special coverage and our panel will be
along with us. Yeah, they're here now. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Of course, he is partner at stone Court Capital. Genie political science professor, Iona University.
Great to see you both, Rick.
I just got back from North Carolina last week and you were down there too. By the way, we weren't staying together. Remarkable to see the ads in North Carolina. To actually spend a week in a swing state you cannot hide from Kamala Harris's television messaging. And I see the headline on the terminal Democrats in southern swing state see path for a rare double win. Now you're a Southerner, Rick, look at this first time since Jimmy Carter. They say
North Carolina and Georgia. The difference is Jimmy Carter was from Georgia. Is not a liberal Democrat from San Francisco. Are you buying this narrative?
You know, I'm made a narrative at a state by state basis, but sure, you know politics has changed since Jimmy Carter. It's not the same Democratic party that he was in. And the reality is they have the toxic combination of growing urban votes, which the Democrats command over eighty percent of their vote comes from these urban areas, and concentrations of black voters, who again on a percentage
basis over eighty percent will support Democratic candidates. And so she's just getting in the way of history at this stage in North Carolina. If the demographics continue to expand the way they are, you get more in migration from people who move to the cities where the big paying jobs are, You're going to have states that are going to start voting Democratic more often. And this could be the first time we see it where both of these are in play in you know, two generations since Jimmy Carr.
So the reality is this is the wave of the future. If anything, the Democrats are looking over their shoulder to see what remains of their rural strategy, which is now dominated by Maga.
Yeah, of course Kamala Harris and Tim Walls were trying to tap back into the rural vote and their bus tour of Georgia last week, and of course in Georgia and North Carolina. In our Bloomberg Morning Consult Swing state polling that came out last week, Kamala Harris is up by two points right now. Joe obviously has mentioned that money is getting spent there in terms of advertisements. But I wonder, Genie, how crucial personnel is too part of
our reporting here. It's that in these southern states Kamala Harris and her campaign have signed up more than fifty thousand volunteers. Is that, at the end of the day, what makes a real difference?
It absolutely well.
First of all, Kayleie, I don't know why you and I weren't in North Carolina. I guess that's where.
Ever didn't get the invite.
Yeah, we'll go down next. But you know, absolutely, especially in a race that is this raizor thin, this is gonna come down to a ground game and who can get out the vote. And so that's where you have this big advantage when they're April able to raise the enthusiasm and that's what's been so, you know, really stunning about what Kamala Harris and her team have been able
to do in about six weeks. Is the enthusiasm. Enthusiasm number we saw out of Gallop for instance, that has changed now in the double digits for Harris, and it was in the single digits for Trump just back in March. So that enthusiasm gets people out on the ground, and
that's critically important. So that, you know, we also saw over the weekend Harris and Waltz out there in the rust belt trying to do the same thing with their union contacts, get their unions not just through the endorsements and the leadership, but members on the ground out because
they too are well organized. So this is very very important, and I think Republicans are starting to sweat this a bit because, as you guys just talked about, voting starts imminently and it continues for about sixty days.
That's right.
All I know is this whole show just spends a week in Chicago together, and nobody was talking about going on a vacation to get GINI Rick, what do you make of this idea of capitalizing on early voting Friday? Is North Carolina. The sixteenth is then Pennsylvania. How does that train your focus on where to spend AD dollars?
Yeah?
No, Look, I mean, as you mentioned at the top of the hour here, the rest of the country is not seeing the campaign for president that's going on in seven targeted swing states. They're not seeing the non stop advertising, they're not seeing the events, they're not seeing the pop up of headquarters all over the state, the massive amount of volunteers showing up. So it's like night and day.
And so when you look at the microcosm on the kind of buy that the Harris campaign just did, and that is very strategic because they want to get all the best ad adjacencies that they can get, and if they buy now, they're going to get them. Everybody who buys later on is going to have to take whatever is available. So kudos to them for getting out with this big buy. But I remember it's like deja vous
all over again two thousand and eight campaign. We didn't look as hard as we should have at North Carolina's early voting and it's been happening for a long time. And Barack Obama held rally after rally where he could sign up voters at his rallies, and we woke up to find out that we lost massively North Carolina for the first time in a long time. And the reality was sixty five percent of the election voters had already
voted by the time election day had come about. We lost North Carolina a week before the election was even held. And so these things matter a lot right now. And with Harris's momentum, it's got to be very troubling to the campaign because you know, he's got to get more action going on, because he can't out buy her with these ads, he can't outground game her. In fact, he's got you basically the Elon Musk of super Pack running his ground game in North Carolina, which is just getting started.
So he's got to actually show up and dominate the airwaves and hope his vote gets out. And so the reality is taking a day off like Labor Day and not going to a place like North Carolina is a huge strategic failure for the Trump campaign.
Well, Rick, it was just last week that I had a chance to speak with Laura Trump, the co chair of the RNC, who said that it has gotten tighter in North Carolina and Pennsylvania those are two states that
the party is considering spending more money in. But with what you just said, is it going to be too late by the time those resources are actually deployed for it to make the difference it could have if they hadn't been essentially assuming North Carolina was in their pocket up until six weeks ago.
Absolutely, I mean, right now you are playing a rearguard action. If you're not ready to start assessing your voter I D work, you know, in other words, you know, identifying all your voters up until this point in time, and then now going to them and saying, please fill out your ballot requests and get it in. And and that's happening on the Democratic side. We know they've been preparing for this, and all of a sudden you have this influx of new voters who are willing to support Harris.
Obviously the momentum is shifting to her since Joe Biden got out of the race, and and and and that's what all these voters are doing who are flooding these headquarters, is they're calling voters saying, are you now a Harris supporter? And if so, can we make sure you've got your ballot and you get it as soon as you can.
Uh.
The Trump campaign is still fighting the image that Donald Trump promotes all the time, which is you know that that that you know, absentee voting or early voting is somehow violating the law. And so Republican voters are sort of stuck. They used to be extremely good at this, but now they're stuff because what the Trump campaign is telling him is one thing, and what they ought to be doing is another.
Remarkable moment.
We're in here.
Ballot's go out starting Friday, Genie, we can't talk about the South without looking at Florida, and some voters there might have whiplash after listening to Donald Trump over the course of the weekend. He started by talking about the government paying for all IVF for at least mandating that insurance companies do that. Then, after being pressed on this ballot question of Florida amendment, that he will now vote
against a proposed amendment to expand abortion access. This is obviously fertile ground for the Harris campaign, and they've been active in trying to counter message Donald Trump. Is it possible for Donald Trump to ever get on message when it comes to the issue of abortion.
It's going to be very tough. You know, Democrats are taking it right to Donald Trump. They're starting this Reproductive Freedom Bust tour or guests where in his backyard and on beach Florida, because they too, just like Donald Trump, are looking at these numbers. The latest IPSOS poll has Kamala Harris up point thirteen or plus thirteen rather with women. That gender divide is real, and much of it comes
back to the issue of reproductive rights and abortion. That's why we've seen him struggling in the area of abortion, what to do on the amendment in Florida, talking about IVF as it's going to be paid for by the government and even health insurance. Even people in his own party are saying that's a little too fast. We support IVF, but we can't afford that. He's struggling because he knows
he wants to do two things he can't do. He wants to take a bow for overturning Row and he also doesn't want to be hit by the backlash of that, and that's very tough to do. And I think all of this makes what happens next Tuesday that much more important because things are moving very quickly, and that is going to be one big opportunity for Donald Trump to turn this thing around and get back on his feet
and make some of these hits on Harris stick. And so I think that debate is just so much more important now than it even was a week ago.
Today, Geenie, we just have about a minute left. But of course, this abortion issue has made some Democrats suggest that Florida could potentially be in play for the party, and it's also looking at down ballot races in that regard. On that subject, Kamala Harris, according to people familiar who've told Bloomberg, is donating twenty four and a half million dollars to down ballot, ten million dollars to the DSEC, to the D Triple C as well even sending money
to gubernatorial races. Is that a signal of confidence that she is enough money to compete or is that a signal that she's aware that even if she wins, it doesn't matter if she doesn't have Congress along with her.
You know, I think it's actually a signal of both.
You know, it is a signal that she has benefited from some of the most impressive fundraising we have ever seen in either party in a very short period of breaking all kinds of fundraising rules, are all kind of fundraising records rather, And it's also the fact that she has this money, and she understands if she wins the presidency, but she doesn't keep the Senate or you know, at least make room in the House, she's going to have difficulty passing her agenda.
So I think it's both.
Yeah, that's true, all right. Jeanie Schanzeno and Rick Davis, our signature political panel, thank you so much for joining. We'll be right back on Bloomberg TV and radio.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Evo CarPlay and then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
We've got our eyes on the races that matter. Charlie's keeping you honest on the market. So we'll hear from Charlie again in about fifteen minutes. That's the way we do it around here. If you're joining us in Boston on ninety two nine FM, you can get used to that unbiased news coverage and talk with political leaders. Every day here on Bloomberg Radio, and we're awfully glad that.
You're with us.
I knew it was real this morning when Bill Galvin, the Secretary of State, cast his ballot at nine thirty am on this primary day in Brighton. I wonder what my friends on Guest Street are doing today. I wonder what they're having lunch. What are they having for lunch right now at the stockyard. Don't answer that, because we have new polling on the presidential race as well, and it's coming from Suffolk University. Our friend David Paleologos out
with the big story today in USA Today. Check this out, one week ahead of the debate, Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump with rising enthusiasm. The headline number will start you off with forty eight percent of forty three percent. It is within the poll's margin as we read, with at least one televised debate ahead, and one in ten voters say they may change their mind yet or haven't decided. There he is now, you can see him on YouTube. Let's bring him in for our radio audience in Boston
and around the country. David Paleologos, of course, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. David, great to have you back. The last time we spoke was right after that change at the top of the ticket happened. We've heard a lot of people talking about honeymoon phases. Where's the post convention bump? What are you actually seeing in your research?
You know, we've been posters have been whiplashed so much by the events over the last month or two, between the Trump Biden debate and the you know, and then Biden getting out, the assassination attempt, Kamala Harris taking over the Democratic invention.
Now we have the debate next week.
So it's been it's been such a whip saw for us, and in many cases we've had to just crumble up the sheet and start all over with Napoleon again.
So it's been an incredible lot.
You know, six weeks I don't think for summer, six weeks before presidential election, I don't think I've ever seen any like this.
Man.
That's saying a lot from somebody with some experience. You're talking to a thousand likely voters. You're not just registered, and we do want to make that delineation August twenty five to twenty eight. Are you surprised that Kamala Harris and Tim Walls are still holding the momentum at this point. There were people talking about Honeymoons a couple of weeks ago.
David, Yeah, no, I am not surprised.
And the reason I'm not surprised is because what moved the most were areas that Joe Biden, core Democratic areas where Joe Biden was failing in terms of margins. He wasn't doing as well among Black voters, Hispanic voters ages eighteen to thirty four, those individuals who had householding comes
less than twenty thousand. Those are core Democratic constituencies. And then overnight you saw shift of you know, from Trump to Harris twenty four points, twenty six points in the case of Hispanic voter is eighteen points Black voters plus seventeen big shifts over what was happening with Biden as the nominee.
Those constituencies aren't going to go leave again.
So that's that's interesting in the mix well the problem and you know, look, the favorables look pretty great for Kamala Harris here, she's outperforming Donald Trump, and a lot of questions here even gosh, we saw a poll from ABC IPSOS she's beating him on mental acuity, understanding the problems of people like you representing personal values. But all of these polls, including our Bloomberg Swing State pole David, show that Donald Trump continues to lead on the big stuff.
Who do you trust to handle the economy?
For instance?
What are you learning about that? And how does Kamala Harris change that narrative?
Same here?
You know, we found that Donald Trump was winning double digits among independents on the economy, on immigration, and Kamala Harris was winning on race relations and healthcare. And so when you look at when you add it all up, the issues of the economy, the issue of the economy is the number one issue. Immigration has fallen back to a bud with a bunch of other issues.
So it's really all about the economy right now.
And as you mentioned the Swing states, part of the challenge for posters measuring the swing states is that there's been a big registration shift since twenty twenty. In Pennsylvania, there's three hundred less thousand less net democratic advantage in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, you've got Arizona where you've got shifts of less Democrats registered to vote, and that democratic advantage is less.
So those are areas that.
I've become a challenge for us when we're pulling these swing states.
Man, you're just swimming in a sea of noise here. I realize right now, David, But as the debate one week from tonight, the single most important event between now and November.
Absolutely, where else are you going to get a fifty million audience crowd?
I mean, I mean viewership.
You know you're not even going to get it with targeted social media and TV ads, So you know, I mean maybe the World Series, you know, in late October. Maybe I don't know, but you know, this is this is pretty much another one of those inflection points that we've been you know, kind.
Of thrown back and forth.
And after the debate, you know, we're not fielding any polls this week. I made the decision that if we fielded a poll, even in Pennsylvania or Michigan's.
Totally change already dated.
We're in the field a lot right after the debate next week.
Incredible. I look forward to it. Come back talk to just tell us about what you learned. David Paleo logos with his finger on the pulse here at Suffolk University.
You can read more.
About the poll in USA today, but we went through some of the numbers that matter here as a turn attention to a story in the Globe that made me say what the Boston Globe, a guy named Tom Mountain, you may have never heard of, served as one of several vice chairs for Donald Trump's effort in Massachusetts, put out an email to Trump volunteers to say, quote, the campaign has determined that New Hampshire is no longer a battleground state unquote, advising them to direct their attention somewhere
else like Pennsylvania. Now, we had a voice very familiar with New Hampshire politics and its connection to Massachusetts and the city of Boston. She used to speak for Charlie Baker when he was the most popular governor in America and is now a co founder of South and Hill Strategies. Lizzie Geiton Republican Strategists. Great to see you, Lizzie, Welcome back to Bloomberg. You know we're on the big blowtors now ninety two to nine FM in Boston, so you
have to be careful what you say. But I'm curious your thought on this. Are Republicans turning away from New Hampshire.
Recount.
New Hampshire out and I think, as your former guest just said, all these polls are within the margin of error, everything's raised within. We have an unprecedented situation where the presidential nominee for president is one of the most unknown candidates in history, and there's a lot that can happen between now and election day.
Well, that's for sure. So where would you spend your attention if you're a Republican trying to convince this Apparently one out of ten voters who are undecided or could change their mind, according to this Suffolk University poll.
We were just.
Talking about, how do you get to them? Is it policy? Is it personality? Donald Trump is trying to recreate the recipe that got him elected in twenty sixteen, when he was largely saying anything he wanted to. Now his campaign is trying to direct him to be a more disciplined candidate, which one works well.
I think Trump is a known quantity. We've seen his campaign style for years. We know how he acts, and he's very much you had every rock overturned in the media. We can't say the same for Kamala herrits unknown she's not doing interviews, she's reading off a teleprompter. We're not really getting to know what's behind her policies, why she
flip flopped on certain issues. And don't forget as all this is happening regardless of the fact that Kamala Harris has had an excellent start, she's had a great start coming out as a nominee, She very much, you know, has other directions that her her race could go. And for Donald Trump, the top issues that people still really care about, and this was just reinforced with the Suffold poll are the economy, our immigration, and he has the upper hand with those issues.
New Hampshire's an oddball though, right, Lizzie, you know this more than anybody when we were together covering the New Hampshire primary, and you were kind to join us from the Radison on Elm Street, which seemed awfully quiet this time around because it was the inevitable primary. Remember, there were so many nicky Haley supporters we talked to who wanted to turn the page from Donald Trump, who wanted an older style of conservative traditional style of conservative Republican politics.
Who do they vote for? Can Kamala Harris pick off any of them.
I think it really matters what is keeping people up at night. Are they really going to go with Trump as a candidate who they think they know, They've seen what he can do on the economy, they know how he's going to be in the White House, or are they going to go with an unknown candidate in Harris? And Harris, by the way, she owns the Biden record, and we saw a tremendous increase from Democrats in particular for enthusiasm when she went to the top of the ticket.
Will she maintain that. What will happen between now an election day that is going to influence whether or not people think that they that she deserves their vote.
Sure interesting analysis over the weekend of the Washington Post Lizzie looking at the where the ads spending is actually being focused in this campaign. The bulk of it is on attack ads against Kamala Harris, obviously coming from not just the Trump campaign but Republican packs, super PACs and so forth. Twenty one percent were pro Harris ads that drew a contrast with Trump, but fifty seven percent or attacks on Harris. And The idea here is that the
Trump campaign, to your point, is a known entity. Everyone knows probably what they're going to ever know about Donald Trump at this point, and so the strategy is to go negative on Kamala Harris to try to identify her before she can Does that work? Does negative work in New Hampshire?
Well, we've seen how negative can work in the past, and I think it can work in New Hampshire just as well as it can in any other parts of the country. And part of the reason for that is because she's such an unknown candidate. So part of the Trump campaign's responsibility is to indict her, to indict her policies, to tie her to the Biden administration and their failed record on the economy, on immigration, to call her out for her flip flopping on policies, and to hold her accountable.
And you're going to continue to hear a lot more negative ads and positive it's generally just the tenor these days that seem to move voters. But you're also just going to see people looking to what she is saying and holding her accountable for what's how she's going to be different if she is from what the Biden administration has been the past four years.
Just a minute left, Lizzie, Is it time then for Harris to go negative or continue a positive message. You're trying to reintroduce herself.
I think that you're seeing her try to introduce herself to the American people. It's a very short amount of time. It's completely unprecedented. But I also believe that for Kamala Harris, she's just hoping that she can kind of stay high level. I think she's avoiding these interviews on purpose so she doesn't have to get into the nitty gritty. I think where she is and continue this momentum through election day
is where she would like to stay. Of course, all eyes around September tenth to see how that debate shapes up and if she can hang on.
It's only a week away, and of course she did the one interview.
We'll see what follows.
Lizzie is the one they call when Republicans want to craft messaging and direct their ad dollars at southen Hill Strategies. Lizzie Guden, thanks so much for the insights.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Thanks for being with us here on the fastest show in politics, Ballance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington, where we've got tabs on the presidential campaign and we are waiting for the return of lawmakers. That's not until next week, Kaylee. A week from tonight the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. That's going to coincide with the
return of lawmakers. So it might be a little bit of noise around here as we, of course try to get a sense of where this race stands. With now two months to go, it's nine weeks from tonight. We're actually talking about, yeah, election Day and early voting. As we discussed with Rick and Jenie mail in, ballots start going out in swing states as.
Soon as this Friday.
Remembering that the national polls we look at don't mean a lot when you start digging into the states.
Well, and sping states certainly matter. The vote demographics within the matter as well. If you're talking states like Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the union vote is especially important, and that of course is something now that we're coming off of Labor Day, the holiday yesterday that candidates, at least on the Democratic side were focused on Kamala Harris and Joe Biden together in Pittsburgh for.
The first time on stage. And we can qualify that by the way we said that when they made their first appearance together that was an official White House event on the campaign trail. Though Harris joins Biden in a day that was dedicated to labor.
We know the simple truth.
Wall Street did not build America.
The middle class build America, and unions built the middle class.
When unions are strong, America is strong.
We will continue to defend and social Security and Medicare and Fantion. We will continue to strengthen America's manufacturing sector.
And of course not a coincidence that this was happening in the critical state of Pennsylvania, given the Union representation there. According to the latest polling from Emerson College in Pennsylvania, it is a literal dead heat between these two candidates forty eight to forty eight. Harris has an edge in Michigan, another union important state, as well as Georgia and Nevada. Trump's up in Wisconsin and North Carolina and Arizona. So it is too Emerson Polling.
We go now.
Spencer Kimball, who's the executive director there, is joining us here on Bloomberg TV in radio. Spencer, it's nice to have you back, especially as we broadcast this first day on ninety two nine FM in Boston. When we look at the swing state map right now, and our polling does show this as well, this notion that it is
wider for Harris than it was for Joe Biden. What are you seeing in the numbers in terms of the way in which that is presenting itself, the kinds of voters that may be more likely to vote for Harris than they were for the sitting president.
Well, Kaylee, I think we start off with the younger voter. They've been sitting on the sideline for six seven months in our polling, Remember we were talking about RFK Junior, you know, getting five six percent. That was primarily coming from younger voters who had in passed you know, the past election, voted for Biden. So we've seen that group come back to Harris. I think what's surprising to some of us is that she's been also able to hold on to the older vote that Biden has brought onto,
you know, the campaign that was voting for him. So she's kind of having the best of both places, getting that youth vote back but also holding onto that older vote.
Well, it's interesting, Spencer, when it comes to motivation and activation, it becomes a different question. Are the students rolling out of the little building today on Tremont Streak and actually get out of bed and vote on election day? We can talk about how they feel right now, but turning out is the actual job.
Well, that is the key.
We've seen these numbers where voter registrations up maybe one hundred and one hundred and fifty thousand some of these key states. Overall, about eighty percent of those people are going to come out and vote. And you've got to
remember that the election day. As you mentioned, voters are going to start getting ballots this Friday, maybe early next week, so they've got seven eight weeks to fill those ballots out and send them back in and that might help increase some of that turnout with those younger voters who may get distracted on election day.
Of course, we're looking specifically at younger voters, voters of all types in the swing states that ultimately will decide this election. But it is worth pointing out that Emerson, as well as our swing state polling and others, are really now just looking at the seven When the conversation what six weeks ago was whether or not we should be counting states like Virginia or even New Hampshire as
swing states. It does seem, according to the latest news from the Trump campaign, that New Hampshire is maybe no longer some a state that they think they could win. Would you write it off completely, Spencer, I wouldn't write it off completely.
But we had a chance to pull New Hampshire a couple weeks ago, and we had it between five and seven points, five points in a head to head and seven points when they added on those additional candidates, which was very similar to how Biden performed in twenty twenty, which is a lot different than how it looked in twenty sixteen when it was within a point. So what we were seeing when Biden after that debate, Biden's numbers were dropping across the country and New Hampshire was coming
back into play. As you mentioned, Virginia, now there has been some polling in Virginia since Harris has joined the or taken over the ticket, and it still has it at three or four points. That's very close. Virginia has moved to about a nine to ten point Democratic state, so still strong for the Democrats. And then, of course Minnesota was a state that thought folks thought were in play.
But with vice president and Tim Wall's on the ticket, you'd presume Minnesota should be pretty safe seven to ten points.
Spencer, We're going to take a look at the stock market here in a conversation with Bloomberg's Abigail Doolittle in just a couple of moments. This is one of the worst days in recent memory for the markets, the S and P five hundred. We're looking at losses one and a half to two and a half percent, depending on
the index you're looking for. And I bring it up because we keep seeing consistently in polling that while Kamala Harris has topped Donald Trump and some metrics has come to even with him and some others, she's still lagging significantly when it comes to who do you trust to handle the economy, who do you trust to fight inflation? Are you seeing that on the same level in the swing states.
Yes, well, the economy is the top issue. It's between forty and fifty percent for voters, and then who's going to do best on the economy breaks for the republic it breaks for Trump roughly two to one. Now, there is a subset that we ask about affordable housing that's also a cost to living, and on the issue of affordable housing, Harris is seen as the champion of that nearly two to one. So as she talks about the economy cost of living, I think she'll try to focus
in on that affordable housing issue. Trump on the other hand, and you see this in the numbers, particularly dealing with the market those fifty to sixty year olds, people that are entering into retirement age. You've seen those numbers switch over to the Republicans over the last couple of years, and they've been pretty strong. So we'll see again if Trump can increase that, you know, that vote, or if the Democrats can make some inroads with those voters.
Spencer, Obviously, we spend a lot of our time thinking about the issues at play in this presidential election, but it goes for elections of all kinds, including congressional ones. This is something we were just talking about with Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzino. This notion that Kamala Harris is now shifting more than twenty million dollars to congressional efforts to get Democrats elected. It is noteworthy in your latest pulling in these very same swing states, the Democrats are
winning by pretty significant margins across the board. How should we be considering the map when it comes to the Senate and House with Harris at the top of the ticket.
Well, the Senate's going to be a more difficult challenge for the Democrats based on West Virginia probably swinging to the Republicans and then having to defend seats in Montana and Ohio. But there are some good news out there in Nevada, Arizona. Maybe in Michigan's a little tighter, but certainly out west the Democrats are holding those seats pretty strongly. But then we get to the House, that's a different challenge. One more point on the Senate, I guess would be
Texas and Florida. We're pulling them this week. We'll have a better sense if those races will be competitive for the Democrats to try to pick up a seat, and then they could swing or hold on to the Senate. The House is a different challenge in that it seems that the Democrats are in good place. Remember it's only like eight or nine seats four or five that they have to flip to take back the majority in the House, and that's really up for grabs. And what's interesting about
spending this money down ticket. You know, if you look at like North Carolina's first district, that's a toss up district. North Carolina is a swing state for Harris. So if she's able to increase turnout in that first district win that seat, that might help her out at the top of the ticket for the presidential electoral votes.
Spencer is great to have you back. Hailing from Emerson College Polling, where he is the executive director, Spencer Kimball back with us on Bloomberg TV and Radio with a nod to our listeners on ninety two to nine FM in Boston. This is the type of conversation we have every day here on the fastest show in politics.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on EMO CarPlay and then Roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business App, listen on demand wherever you get your podcast a watch us live on YouTube.
We keep tabs on what's happening in Israel, awfully important against the backdrop of this campaign. The idea of striking a ceasefire, arriving at a ceasefire before the election might seem far fetched for some, and you wonder if that
loosens up a little bit following November. And it's something that we're going to be talking about a lot here over the course of this program, and of course the days ahead, we'll let you know when there's breaking news from Israel on a campaign that moves into the final sprint. Have you heard that enough lately? Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have sixty three days to make the case. In one of those days a week from tonight could go a long way to helping decide who is going to win this election.
That's the debate.
Of course, we're going to have special coverage here on Bloomberg as you would expect, but we have new polling data and we have a new baseline here in this campaign that we want to talk about on our first day here on ninety two nine a FM in Boston with the Dean of Boston Politics, my former colleague John Keller,
of course, from WBZTV in Boston, the CBS affiliate. He is the host of Keller at Large, and he's the first man to moderate every debate that counts in the Boston media market, and to have him on primary day on top of it, John, it's great to see you, welcome.
You know, the prospect of Joe Matthew back on the Boston airwaves has touched off a wave of excitement matched only by the Celtics victory parade last June. As I look out the window of my office, the streets are a sea of people shouting.
Jubilently, Joe, Joe, Joe.
It's not clear if they're calling for Joe Matthew or just demanding more rice coffee for DD, but we'll take it as.
The former Q the duck boats. We're back, Baby and John. It's primary day in Massachusetts. I understand we're going to learn who gets to run against Elizabeth Warren, but I have to ask you, does anyone in Massachusetts know its primary day?
Not too many people and just a small correction there. It's about who's going to lose to Elizabeth Warren in November. And let's be honest about it. There are three Republicans running, and to the extent that it's of any interest, it's.
Because two of them.
Well, one candidate in particular, John Deeton, a political neophyte, former marine and an attorney who kind of made his bones handling and winning a couple of high profile bitcoin cases. And there's a second candidate, Ian Kin, president of the Quincy City Council, who also is an advocate of bitcoin deregulation.
So that's kind of an interesting sidelight to this. It hasn't really.
Emerged as an issue in the primary, which has mostly been the third candidate and also Ran, who wears a Trump maga hat during debates, scalding the other two for repudiating.
Trump as they have.
That's the price of admission if you want to win an election in Massachusetts.
But it's likely to be an issue in the final with Warren.
No question, Wow, we're a maga hat on the debate stage who said there were no props? John the crypto part of this whole story. Yeah, No.
I moderated a debate with the three and I asked the guy if you wanted to just lift it up a little so the camera could get a shot of his face and he agreed.
Okay.
Fascinating no badges were presented, I suspect. But the crypto line is important here on Bloomberg we talk about it a lot because Elizabeth Warren has been so skeptical of crypto is asking for more regulation. But you're telling me that that's not a factor in the campaign.
Well, it hasn't been in the primary. And you know to what extent the Republican nominee tonight can turn it into an issue and a run against Warren. I frankly don't think it's top of mind for many Massachusetts residents.
I mean, I don't mean to be flip.
About suggesting that this is no contest in the fall. But the fact is that Massachusetts is a well documented history in federal elections of voting for.
Bacon Ted Kennedy over the years.
Spend it off all opposition because in large part, not just because he was a Kennedy, but because he delivered historic amounts of federal funding. They really created the modern
day Massachusets economy. And Elizabeth Warren has well, well she's no Ted Kennedy when it comes to that has had some successes lately, most recently a billion dollar grant from the Fence to get going on the repairs of the bridges leading from the mainland to Cape cod that are an absolutely crucial element in Massachusetts church and in the overall economy. So I bitcoin is is sure to come up because the the Winklevoss Twins of of of what was that movie?
The Facebook movie?
Uh Twins?
Who were ye?
Who were? Could win by Mark Zuckerberg.
The social network, Thank you, Matt.
They're big donors to the John Deaton campaign. He's the likely winner tonight. He has the most money, been the most visible on the air. So we'll see if it gets any traction. But I don't hold that much hope for it.
Got it all right, So in our remaining couple of minutes here, I need to get to the presidential campaign. And I should have already wished you a happy Alston Christmas if you don't know what that is. When the college kids roll into Alston, mass and they get into their new apartment, they find a bunch of stuff on the street, big old dirty couches, maybe a busted lamp.
And this is like Christmas morning when you're a college kid moving into an apartment, you'd take that couch with the bed bugs, you take the lamp, you put it all back in that you make your own little special apartment. You might even drive around pick up some stuff off the street. John is the Kamala Harris campaign, the Alston Christmas of presidential politics. She's picking up the pieces of what Joe Biden put together here and is trying to
turn this into something new. Could she make this a living room you want to live in?
Well, that's a.
Very interesting analogy, Joe. I don't know that it's fair to compare the broken pieces of the Biden campaign to the completely disgusting stuff that the kids put out on the curb up here.
I mean, that's it's pretty a little harsh.
But look, you may have seen the story that there are indications that the Trump campaign has given up on New Hampshire. There's an email going out to supporters urging them, if they want to try to help forget about New Hampshire, head to Pennsylvania.
But look, I think this debate is absolutely.
Crucial in determining whether this momentum House clearly has continues.
And I'll tell you one thing, a week from tonight. You are not going to see a.
Lot of Kamala Hars trying to dive into policy details.
Not like.
So it's still the personality contest. John, come back and talk to us after the debate that of Boston politics. John Keller at Large on Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.