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Thanks for being with us on Bloomberg TV and radio. The Wednesday addition of Balance of Power as we turn back to presidential politics and still many questions about Joe Biden's acuity and ability to maintain his status as the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party. Here it's day two of the NATO summit in Washington. He'll be holding forth with bilateral meetings and a big dinner tonight which a
lot of eyes will be on him. But another disruption as Democrats in Washington fail to seek consensus on this, a disruption in questioning with Nancy Pelosi, of course, the former Speaker of the House, talking on MSNB see this morning. Given the opportunity to fully endorse Joe Biden in his effort to stay in this race, here's what she said.
It's up to the president to sucide if he is going to run We're all encouraging him to make that decision because time is running short. I want him to do whatever he decides to do, and that's the way it is. Whatever he decides, we go with.
Whatever he decides, not exactly is a full throated endorsement. As we add Bloomberg Politics editor Laura Davison to the mix, Laura, it's great to see you. Did that just make Joe Biden's campaign more difficult.
This is very difficult for him because you know, if you'll recall, he has said he's already decided. So having top Democrats come out and say, oh, well, the president needs to make up his mind really undercuts that messaging that he's been trying to set out and what we're not hearing from Pelosi as well as the number two House Democrat, Catherine Clark, came out today and said, look, it's the president's decision to decide, not I'm with Joe Biden and he should be our nominee.
Those are two very different mes. Yeah, language is very
important here. I would also note that despite the questions today about how Speaker Nancy Pelosi, there are others who are being even more definitive or Speaker Amrita, I should say Congressman Pat Ryan of New York becoming the eighth now to go on the record and say, and this is a quote he posted this on X I am asking Joe Biden to step aside for all of the talk in just the last twenty four hours on the idea that maybe the campaign had been able to stop
the bleeding, if you will, we're still getting this trickle trickle Mikey Cheryl yesterday, Pat Ryan today, it's not necessarily ending.
No, And you know, Michael Bennett coming out, you know, full throat, are the saying he told his colleagues to you know that this is not this Trump is gonna win in a landslide. That is a huge warning flag. The thing that was also interesting about Pelosi's comments earlier is she said to hold off any criticism of the presider calls for him to step aside until after Thursday's press conference. That wasn't stop talking about it. Let's let's let this matter go to rest. This is let's wait
until Thursday. That gives the president a little more time to potentially show up his defenses. But still we could see a damn break, you know, twenty four hours thirty six hours from.
Now, so this is still some sort of quasi deadline on Thursday news conference set NATO. We've been talking about it for days now because we turn immediately from there to Milwaukee, a likely vice presidential announcement running made announcement from Donald Trump. This really heightens the stakes around Thursday, when you have people like Nancy Pelosi continuing to remind us that it's there. There's a saying, of course about whistling past the graveyard, which is probably inappropriate to use
at this point. But what can Joe Biden do in the meantime to lean into this, to focus on it.
There's not a whole lot he can do right now. I mean, he has to really come out Thursday and show that he is in full command of the facts, that he's there. He's lively, he's he needs to be funny, you know, and witty in a way. But the thing to remember is, you know, even if he survives this week, there is still you know, four months essentially till the
election day. At any minor slip up, GAF is going to be heavily criticized, and depending you know how big that is, we could see these calls crop up again and again, and that could really cause a lot of division the party. And potentially, you know, some Democrats are warning, you know, mean that they lose across the board House, Senate,
and the White House. Of course, while all the Democrats are infighting, if you will, or trying to coalesce around a message, it does seem by in large Republicans, including the Republican presumptive nominee, Donald Trumper, staying out of it for the most part, though he has said in a few interviews in recent days the idea that he does
believe Biden will be the nominee. Trump himself was at a rally in Florida yesterday alongside a Senator from Florida, Marco Rubio, got some hints, teasing, if you will, that potentially Rubio could be his vice presidential pick. But what we really find that out before the convention starts next week, you know, this is the big question. Trump's aides have suggested they want the decision before next Monday, or by Monday morning, whereas Trump has said, hey, I want to
do it during the convention. Has even suggested, hey, this would be great for ratings, this would be great for viewership. He's really writing a lot. He's tapping into his reality TV instincts on this and wanting to tease out, you know, multiple times during the rally he hinted, you know, maybe Rubio would be in the Senate, maybe he would be
involved in governing in some other ways, very undefined. Even in the remarks they sent out beforehand to reporters to show Trump's prepared remarks, it had a big section whereas tonight I am officially and then.
Just cut off.
So they are really playing this up in a major.
Way, all right, Bloomberg Politics editor Laura Davison getting ready with all of us for Milwaukee just days from now.
Thank you so much.
Now, of course, as we prepare for the Republican Convention and face questions about what exactly could go down during the Democratic Convention, we have heard consistently from Joe Biden in the day since the debate that he believes he still can beat Donald Trump, suggesting he does not believe what he's seen in recent polling. We asked a former senator, someone who served with President Biden in the Senate, Bob Kerrey, about that idea last night, and this is what he told us.
When you've got over seventy percent of the American people, black, white, Democrat Republicans saying he's too old.
You can't fix that with a fiery speech at some event.
Well, I'm I'm smelling delusion, a rational assessment, and a guy willing to pride on, and I worry about that.
So let's get some more rational assessments, if we will, and talk to one of the pollsters in question themselves. Spencer Kimball is with us. He is director of the Emerson College Polling Center. Just out with new data yesterday. Spencer, welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. You find that, like a lot of the other polls we are seeing, Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden by potentially a wider margin forty six to forty three percent.
We talk so much about margins of error, how close the selection is going to be, But do you get a sense that it actually is a gap that is widening in a more material way.
Yeah, it's a.
Good question, Kaylee, because what we saw out of that debate is Trump holding forty six percent. He was at forty six percent before the debate, and he's staying there. Where we saw the movement was Biden losing two points, and the concern for Biden is how many points might he shed over the next couple of weeks and then ken Trump actually pick up.
That vote or does it go to a third party.
Well, it's interesting when you start asking undecideds here about which way they lean. Kaylee mentions forty six forty three, eleven percent undecided. But when you ask them to pick a candidate here, which candidate they lean toward? This race is tied, it's fifty fifty. So when we look at that slice of eleven percent undecideds, we talk a lot about the double haters. Spencer. Are these conventions this month and next going to change their minds?
I'm not sure if the conventions will change their minds, But this is what President Biden is betting on that at the end of the day, that Trump has a ceiling of forty six forty seven percent, and that these other voters are going to come back to them because who is that eleven percent. They're generally younger, in minority voters.
Those are generally Democratic voters who right now are on the sideline, and he's got to bring them back into the fold if he wants to replicate what he did in twenty twenty when he won nationally by about four and a half points.
Well, of course there's other options. Those independents are those democratically minded but not Biden fans could consider here in third party, Spencer, you pulled that too, Trump forty four, Biden forty, RFK Junior six percent one support, one percent support for corn O West and Jill Stein. How should we be thinking about the third party factors here and whether they are likely to see a benefit from points falling away from Joe Biden in a more material way.
So they're going to get their points from the younger voters, and the question is do they actually come out and vote in this election? And right now, So when you see that ballot test, Trump's up by three in the head to head, but then he goes up by four in the five way contest. Those are younger voters leaving Biden saying, hey, I can't vote for Trump, but I'll vote for you know, JFK Junior or Cornell West. And
that's what's hurting Biden as well. So some of it again won't go directly to Trump, but by not going to Biden, it indirectly benefits Trump.
I'm compelled, Spencer, by motivation by age. As we know it is much more likely that older voters are actually going to get off the couch and vote. In November, we spend a lot of time talking about young voter flight. From the Biden campaign is these are these numbers reassuring knowing that it will likely be older Americans who decide the next president.
Well, if it is older Americans and the younger vote doesn't come out, that's where Joe Biden thinks he has an advantage. Prior to twenty twenty. He does better with voters over seventy compared to where he was four years ago. Unfortunately, he's doing worse with voters under seventy. So he's got to make up some ground with the fifty to seventy year olds. But those older voters who really vote at hyperpensities, they seem to be breaking slightly in his direction, but we're talking.
Two or three points.
This is a group that Trump won by about four or five points, so there's a slight swing there. But Trump has made up a lot of ground with the forty to sixty year old crowd.
Spencer. We've spent the last almost two full weeks now here in Washington having the conversation about whether Joe Biden will drop out of the race, what happens if he does, who ultimately could become the Democratic nominee, with suggestions from some Democrats that anyone else may stand a better chance than Biden does. At this point, does your pulling find truth? And that are all of these other Democrats just as week against Donald Trump right now?
And so, Kaylee, I'm glad that you asked that, because we need to discuss what those head to head ballot tests look like. When you have the Vice president Harris is down by six and you have other candidates.
Down by more, why is that?
And when we look inside those numbers, it's the younger voters who aren't aware of these other candidates, and so they're more on the sideline.
So if you noticed, Trump.
Might pick up a couple of points, But in my opinion, if you actually ran different candidate, I think that younger vote would come back. Right now, they're breaking for Biden by about fourteen points, they're breaking for these they're pretty much split on all of these other candidates. And remember they broke for Obama by about thirty points. So there's a lot of room with younger voters for the Democrats
to make some gains with. But right now there team to be kind of looking a little bit like the John Carey al Gore race of two thousand and two thousand and four, where it wasn't as much younger vote putting in them over the finish line like we saw with Obama.
Well, it's interesting, Kaylee mentions the age issue here following the debate. We should let everyone know by the way you ran these numbers, the seventh and eighth, that's Sunday and Monday. This week, we got a glimpse at what could be at least a temporary new stump speech from Donald Trump at his rally in Florida last evening, in which she was referring to Biden Harris instead of just
Joe Biden. And he's introduced a nickname now for Kamala Harris that refers to her laughing, he continues to misrepresent her first name. We mispronounce her first name on the regular and I wonder if that's something that we're going to see born out in the numbers, as he acknowledges Kamala Harris as Joe Biden's partner.
Well, I think, and you know, who knows what's going through former President Trump's mind, But this would be a game changer. If you take Biden off the top of the ticket, he might think, now Biden, President Biden thinks that he's the best candidate to go against Trump. Trump might think it's best to go against President Biden as a rematch from twenty twenty. But if you change that up, now we're shaking it up, and does Trump have a ceiling at forty six forty seven percent?
And can some other Democrat come in.
Excite that base that is not excited right now, and then actually springboard to a photo finish, because at this point it's certainly in the numbers leaning towards Trump from a national perspective.
But we know ultimately it's going to come down to the swing states that will decide the outcome when we're thinking about the electoral college. Obviously, we saw some shifts from the Cook Political report yesterday on six states, but states that go beyond what we have our current understanding as swing states. We're talking about New Hampshire. We've heard suggestions from the Trump team that they think Virginia, possibly
even New York could be in play. What do you think about that, Spencer, Should we expand our list?
Yeah, we've already opened up to Minnesota.
We had that race tied a couple of weeks ago before the debate, and Minnesota hasn't gone for a Republican since Nixon didn't even go for Reagan. So interesting to see those states swinging. But the crux of the race comes down to Arizona, Georgia. If the Republicans can take those, then any of those other swing states Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Virginia, those all put the.
Race on a knife's edge.
So we'll see if Georgia and Arizona are shifting to the right, if.
Any of those other states move in that direction as well.
Spencer, thanks for being with us. Always a pleasure to run around the track with Spencer Kimball in new research from Emerson College Polling Center, where he is director. Come back and see us soon on Bloomberg TV and Radio. A reminder that will be in Milwaukee starting Monday with special coverage here the Republican National Convention all four days on Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'll be there with Kaylee starting high noon Monday, in Milwaukee.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Democrats try to coalesce around a strategy when it comes to President Biden and whether they should be pushing him to drop out or continue his re election campaign. Multiple well networks are now reporting that campaign advisors, including the likes of Steve Rochetti, will be meeting with Senate Democrats for lunch tomorrow as they continue to try to push their message on the Hill. And we know that some Senate Democrats are getting quite antsy about the electoral probabilities
come November. Certainly one of those is Democratic Senator Michael Bennett of Colorado, who had this to say on CNN last night.
Donald Trump is on track, I think, to win the selection and maybe win it by a landslide and take with him the Senate and the House the White House. In the time since that disastrous debate, I think has done nothing to really demonstrate that they have a plan to win the selection.
You can add another from the House as well. Now, another Democrat. I believe it's number nine if we're keeping count here, and that's Pat Ryan, the Democrat from New York. Frontliner as they call them, considered a vulnerable democrat here with the tweet Joe Biden is a patriot, but is no longer the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump. Let's assemble our panel today for their take on this. Brad Howard is with US, Democratic strategist and founder of Corkoran
Street Group, along with Jennifer Nasourus. Great to have you back, Jennifer, republican strategist and former chair of the Massachusetts GOP, host of the Political Contessa podcast. I could talk to you both about lawmakers all day long. It doesn't seem to be making that big of a difference at the moment, at least for Joe Biden. But Brad, we find something potentially much more damaging in the New York Times and obed from George Clooney. If Joe Biden has lost Clooney, where are we?
Well?
You know, I think all Americans are grateful that Hollywood has stepped into this debate. Look, I mean what matters is the presidents in her circle and the party leaders and you know, voters, And I think as we're starting to see, I think one of the interesting dynamics from the debate is you didn't see a big loss or gain.
Among swing voters. In fact, Biden actually picked up a pointer or two among swing voters.
Because swing voters have had this concern about his age from the beginning.
It's the base that has been.
Not really kind of willing to acknowledge it or has seen the severity of it. It wasn't to the debate when a lot of the base voters were faced with his age and real.
Time and right in front of their face.
And so I think that is what's caused them to like kind of have this panic moment here.
And the President has spent the last week and I have trying to assure those concerns.
I think he did stem the tide of this call a little bit by getting the Black Caucus to so firmly support him. That was kind of the kill shot of the effort. I think in the House, it kept Keen Jeffries from coming out and saying anything more.
Nancy Pelosi is getting close to full out calling on him to step aside, but not quite there yet.
So until either a Black Caucus leadership or a US Senator directly calls and publicly call for him to step aside, Biden's going to be the nominee.
All right.
I feel like we should characterize George Clooney's involvement in the Biden campaign because, yes, it is Hollywood, but he was also just weeks ago out in California alongside Joe Biden. We just had an image of it up for you on Bloomberg TV. Fundraising for him. He raised tens of millions of dollars, and in this op ed, Clooney wrote, in part, it's devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fundraiser was not the Joe big effing do Biden of twenty ten.
He wasn't the Biden of twenty twenty. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate, and this fundraiser happened before the debate, Jennifer to bring you in here. If he is the same man that debated almost two weeks ago, for the rest of this election cycle, does he stand any chance at all of defeating Donald Trump.
None, not at all. I mean I think that you know, Donald Trump will win with historic numbers if Joe Biden is the nominee for the Democratic Party. So if the Democratic Party is trying to sink itself and go down and become a pile of ashes, they're doing a great job with keeping Joe Biden at the top here. So I mean the guy that we saw at the debate, the guy that was on TV just earlier today talking about NATO and welcoming and starting the conference off. I mean,
that is the President of the United States. It is an embarrassment. It is an embarrassment, not not just to our country and the voters here, but on the international stage. And we can't keep going down this trajectory. It's one thing his terrible policies, but it's another thing to have that man out there, and the Democratic Party is not doing anything about it other than these calls for him to resign. His inner circle needs to tell him to go.
And on the George Clooney front, I will say this, that is Obama working behind the scenes talking to other people in Hollywood and telling them that they have to step in as well.
I live in Massachusetts.
Massachusetts governor said the debate was horrific. We have Seth Molton, member of Congress who has called for Joe Biden to step down up in Maine, Jared Golden, same thing. I mean, we're seeing Democrats from blue states who are saying it's time for him to go.
All right, Brad, I know you're going to want to respond to this. We just heard a lot, obviously from Jennifer here, but I want to get your impressions on this potential for Obama involvement. Is George Clooney speaking for the former president here.
Let me first say that the Republican friend here made a lot of assumptions, a lot of incorrect statements. For instance, Jared Golden has not called on the president's step aside. He has concerned about his ability to win, but he's not yet called from the step aside. And number two for Republicans to try to guess.
What Obama is doing is rich.
Number Three, what is embarrassing is that there is a major national political party in the United States says is nominating that's going to nominate next week.
A guy with thirty one felony convictions.
The guy who is help civilly liable for a sexual assault against a woman. That's what's embarrassing. The Republicans somehow have the ability to hold their head high. What we are debating here is whether we think we have the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump in November and serve this country for the next four years.
That's a very fair reason, but that is not an embarrassing debate.
I'll take this bait any day over what the Republicans are about to do next week.
We've got some passion on the panel today. I love it both of you, Brad and Jennifer as we talk about the idea of actual policy here, which was discussed in the debate, although it was performance that ultimately stole the narrative. We are seeing that President Biden and those around him close to him seem to be pushing back against the idea of him dropping out, talking about what could happen in a second Trump presidency, including Project twenty
twenty five, something put out by the Heritage Foundation. It's something that Trump himself has tried to distance himself from. But Jennifer, do you actually believe that the former president and presumptive Republican nominee actually doesn't agree with a lot of those ideas, or it's Project twenty twenty five, at least elements of it, something that could ultimately become a reality if he wins.
No, I think that that is something that is coming out of a very conservative think tank. That is not something that Trump is as far as I know, and we see. Look, what you need to rememb member is that as a former president and the presumptive nominee of the party, Donald Trump is the head of the Republican Party right now. Whether you like it or you don't
like it, it doesn't matter. And what we saw come out of the Platform Committee for the RNC is a much softer platform than we have had in probably ten or twelve years. And so I think you have to really keep in mind that that is driven by Trump and his understanding that of the forty three percent of the electorate that considers themselves to be independent voters, he needs to win those folks in order to win this race.
Brad, we've just got a minute. I want to ask you about Kamala Harris. Her name hasn't really come up this hour. She was out in Las Vegas with her own rally in which she called out Project twenty twenty five yesterday, quote a plan to limit access to contraception and for a nationwide abortion band, with or without a lack of conference unquote in our remaining moment, how important or the next two days for Kamala Harris.
Very important, real quick on Project twenty twenty twenty five. What to pay attention to is not whether or not Donald Trump says he had anything to do with it. Donald Trump has yet to fully denounce Project twenty twenty five. He has said he has some concerns, but we don't know what those concerns are. I call on him and the Republicans to tell us what about that that they don't like. And number two, Kamala has been a terrific vice president. I think the issue of choice is a
great one for her. It reminds voters what's at stake in this selection, and that is individual liberty and freedoms.
The Republican Party want to dictate to you how you want to live your life.
If you look at twenty twenty five, it's full of moralistic kind of.
Ideas on how they think you should live your life.
The Democrats are the ones that are trying to give you the liberty to live your life and raise your family how you see fit, and love who you want to love.
Yeah, all right, Brad Howard, we will leave it there. Thank you so much for joining us. Brad Howard, of course, as democratic strategist and founder of the Corkin Street Group. Joined today by Jennifer Nasure, Republican strategist and former Massachusetts GOP chair, host of the Political Contessa podcast Dialogue. It's what we live for here.
That was great in Washington. It was great.
We got more great stuff coming up right here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then Roudo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. Watch us live on YouTube.
We talk politics in Washington the Wednesday edition of Ballots of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Thanks for being with us as we turn our attention to the NATO Summit that is now underway here in Washington. Joe Biden holding forth a bit later on in a special dinner with the more than thirty world leaders who are gathered just a couple of blocks away from where we are
sitting here, with of course Ukraine on the agenda. This is something we're going to be hearing a lot more about as NATO countries pledge this week to beat up efforts to fund the war in Ukraine, with big questions about creating a more definitive path toward NATO membership. In fact, we heard from Vladimir Zelenski, the President of Ukraine yesterday at the NATO summit here he is it's time.
To sit out, to step out of the shadows.
To make strong decisions, work to act, and not to wait for November or any other months.
To this end, Zelensky calling for the NATO allies to act now versus later, and we are seeing them take some action now. In fact, yesterday it was announced by President Biden and his speech addressing the summit, five long range air defense systems for Ukraine, more Patriot missiles of course, dozens of shorter range systems and missiles as well. The question is how quickly can it make a difference, and
is this really what Ukraine needs the most? For those questions and more, we turn out of Kelly Grico, who is back with us here on Bloomberg. She has Stimpson Center senior fellow with the Imagining US Grand Strategy program. Kelly, always great to talk to you. We obviously got the news on those long range air defense systems. We know that air defense is what Zelensky has been pushing very hard for. You got five of them. How much of a difference does it make?
Yeah, so thank you for having me. Yes, it is an important announcement. These are five systems. Four of them will be Patriot batteries, which is quite significant, Another one will be a SAMTE which is also a long range system, and also dozens of other tactical air defense systems. So
this is a very significant investment. What we don't know exactly is what version of the Patriot system these are, where they're coming from, so how long it will take and in terms of impact, it really depends on how they're going to use them, and I have some questions about that, particularly given F sixteens might be arriving in the country. Will these Patriots systems be used to protect air bases that are hosting the F sixteens or are they going to be used to protect the cities and
the energy infrastructure. If the latter, then it could have a significant impact.
Kelly, it's great to have you back. You mentioned the F sixteen's US made fighter jets from Denmark and the Netherlands on their way, and we're apparently talking about sending even more. You're the first person we ever talked about this idea with here on balance of power, and you question their effectiveness and whether they were consistent with the strategy in Ukraine. There's reporting now from Bloomberg just in the past couple of days they don't have enough pilots
who are prepared to fly these jets. They don't even have enough prospective pilots to train. So what are we doing here?
This is a great question, you know, I have this question myself. You know, we know that there's about twenty pilots that will graduate by the end of the year.
There's about sixty aircraft roughly that are being donated by countries, so that's about you know, three aircraft per pilot, which is the opposite of sort of what you would want for the numbers, because usually pilots get quired before the aircraft, you know, so it's going to be a small contribution, especially at first, and I think it's noticeable that you
can see the Ukraine's trying to scale back expectations. So they're talking now about using these largely in an air defense role, so to intercept shah head drones and cruise missiles. And I'll just note that's an expensive way to do that. You know, we'll see how this plays out. But I think, you know, there are concerns about is this investment worth
it long term? You know, Ukraine will need an air force, but certainly in the short term, is this really worth The impact it will have operationally on the battlefield is going to be marginal compared to the amount of effort that is going into.
This for sure.
Okay, So, Kelly, if it's a question of investment versus reward, what kind of investment would read greater reward for for Ukraine? What could it more use that perhaps it isn't getting right now.
Well, I think it's actually an investment that allies can provide, which is manpower, personnel. This is still an issue that Ukraine is dealing with, which is you know, trying to recruit and mobilize forces. I thought it was quite interesting that Ukraine and Poland signed a security arrangement this week and one of the things that was included with Poland singling that it would send back Ukrainians that are are you know, eligible for service back to Ukraine, and it hosts,
of course, many refugees. So the personnel issues are very significant because this is really a war of attrition. Beyond that, obviously, air defense matters a lot, but we're really getting in a hard place now sending more air defense systems, including anti air missiles.
You know.
Biden again last night said Ukraine's going to cut the line in new anti air missiles that are coming out of factories and be the first to get them. And that means Ukraine's getting them and not other allies and partners, whether that's Taiwan or Japan or Israel.
Yeah, to put a finer point on this, and I hate to belabor the F sixteen's here, but we've got seventy nine that have been committed so far, seventy nine jets just this week, Zelenski said here in Washington, quote until we have one hundred and twenty eight, we will not be able to match them in the skies and it will be difficult. Unquote. Does he believe the Pentagon or is the Pentagon not being honest with him on this.
Well, I think we've seen that the Ukrainians, and this is understandable given they're fighting a war, their tendency is to sort of keep raising what their needs are. When they have something, they're not completely satisfied and they want more,
and that's understandable because they are fighting a war. You know, at the end of the day, though the F sixteen is a fourth generation aircraft, the Russians have very advanced air defense systems, and so there's always going to be an issue of the fact that the F sixteen against these very advanced Russian air defense is going to be vulnerable to being shot down when it's being operated most
of affectively in the sky. And we're already seeing the Russians are going after have increased attacks on air bases in preparation for the Ukraine's receiving these these jets and so they're getting prepared to target them on the ground as well. So, you know, I understand that Zelenski wants more, but the question is where are smart investments. Because there's only so much money as well available, where are the smart places to be able to really support Ukraine's effort to the maximum gain.
Well, and to such a large extent, Kelly. What we're talking about here is supporting Ukraine's defensive effort, things like intercepting missiles, et cetera. There's also the question of offense. Knowing we have seen a change in at least US administration policy when it comes to Ukraine offensively striking certain targets within Russia. What started narrower has broadened a bit. But for Ukraine to actually win the war, is that the real conversation that needs to be had.
I think the real conversation that needs to be had is actually what winning the war means, and that should
be a political defined politically. It should be an independent Ukraine in Ukraine that's able to keep as much recapture as much territory as possiful, but it's going to have to acknowledge that it's probably not going to recapture every last bit of territory, and I know that is horrible, But the reality on the ground is that you just can't overcome certain realities, which is that Russia has more personnel,
it's able to sustain its war economy. It's been really ramping it up, whereas Western support is really reaching sort of some of its maximums, and so those realities. No matter what we want to do and how we want this outcome to be, we have to come to terms with that and think about how can we prepare Ukraine to really position itself to get the best deal possible in some kind of negotiated settlement. Because I think it's quite clear at this point that this war is headed
for that. It's just a question of what that's.
Going to look like.
Really interesting, as we spend time with Kelly Grico at the Stimpson Center, so many people are talking about the news conference that Joe Biden is going to be holding tomorrow at the conclusion Kelly of this NATO summit. I suspect a lot, if not all, of the questions are going to be about his age, his mental acuity, and some of the related political issues that we've been dealing with since the debate here in Washington. How about policy
toward Ukraine. What would you ask Joe Biden if you were a reporter in the crowd tomorrow, I would ask.
Him what the long term strategy is. Rather than simply saying that it's as long as it takes, I'd like to know what the theory of victory is now for Ukraine and for its Western supporters, how does this look in the end and how are we getting there?
Isn't that not really though? For the US president whoever they are to decide, Kelly, is that not up to Selenski?
You know, I know that we say that and to a certain amount, Gregory, That's true. It's up to Ukraine to decide, you know, battlefield strategy and to decide, you know, a political settlement is gonn.
Accept it or not.
But we, as significant backers of that, have choices to make about our own support and what we're willing to
support or not. We may decide that we're not willing to provide endless support that would be required perhaps to take back large portions of territory, if that was even possible, And so we need to actually have really honest conversations about that, because our interests are aligned with Ukraine, but they're not identical and that's just the reality of alliances and coalition partnerships, and so we need to actually look at that and make sure that both sides understand that reality.
Trump proofing is the buzz phrase, if I can call it that at this NATO summit love him or hate him, world leaders are talking about, Kelly, what would a Trump reelection mean for NATO.
Well, let me just first say that Trump proofing is talked about extensively in this town, particularly with allies, whether it's in Europe or Asia. As I will say to them often, I do not believe trump proofing is possible. I just think that's not a reality and practice. I think what's clear is that a Trump presidency would result in a massive scaling back of support for Ukraine, possibly
an ending a material support for Ukraine. And even more significantly, it would result in I think a draw down, a shifting of security responsibilities dramatically from the United States to Europe. Would it result in a withdrawal formal withdrawal from NATO?
I do not know.
Maybe, but I think even short of that, it's going to be a real emphasis on Europe, which is, these are wealthy countries really spending more on defense and providing for their own security, particularly so that the United States can focus on some of the really significant security threats emerging in the end of Pacific.
Just finally, Kelly, as you were talking about how you would ask President Biden to get serious if you will about what exactly the endgame is when it comes to US support for Ukraine. Given what we have heard from Donald Trump about this, aside from his suggestion he could solve this war make an end on day one of his presidency, does he seem to be talking about it more realistically than Biden does at this point.
Well, I don't think, you know, the idea of ending the war overnight is you know, you know, realistic. I think that there is a bit more public recognition of some of the inherent limits on US support. I think I think that's a reality. What I think is not as realistic in certain terms of Trump is maybe overestimating US influence and its ability to actually end the war.
You know, yes, we're providing a lot of material support, but we're not the only actor really involved in this in Europe provide significant support at this point to Ukraine as well. So our ability, you know, we're accustomed to, you know, for many decades, being the sort of most powerful actor in the world, and we kind of get
to say how things are gonna turn out. We're no longer in that place anymore, and so I think that's an adjustment, not just for Donald Trump, but sort of for all of us as Americans.
Always a pleasure to take a deep dive with Kelly Grico. It's good to see you, Kelly. Thanks for your insights, today's Senior Fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program at the Stimson Center. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.