You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Welcome to the Monday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where there are not many left. The house is gone. As we told you the end of last week. There are some senators still in town waiting maybe for something to happen on a deal with the border. But the language we heard, despite a flurry of negotiating over the weekend, does not sound great. Not that this has been derailed, but the idea of it happening by the end of the year might be a
bit of a stretch. And that's not good news for Ukraine, which of course would be forced to wait for funding that's been requested now for some time. And as I read on the terminal, a new warning from the Pentagon, a letter just obtained from Bloomberg News before we talked to Melinda Herring. It's very important. The Pentagon says it will run out of money, and we knew this from Shland Young at the administration that the end of the year would not be good for financing Ukraine. But now
we have details. We have a level of detail we did not have before. Pentagon will run out of money to replace weapons sent to Ukraine by December thirty, unless, of course, some miracle happened on Capitol Hill spending now the last one billion dollars to buy new weapons and equipment that will replace those drawn down from stockpiles and sent to Ukraine. This is from the Pentagon controller at
December fifteen. Letter that we have obtained says that on December thirty, fifteen days after this letter was sent, its accounts will be empty. Now. That was the message over the weekend from Chris Van Holland, the Democratic Senator from Maryland, on ABC this week, without necessarily those details, but certainly the same spirit here.
He is we need to make sure that we help our Ukrainian friends against Putin's aggression, not just to protect their freedom, but because it would send a terrible signal around the world to our allies who no longer trust us, and to our adversaries who would be in Bolden if we're not doing that.
That's where we begin our conversation with Melinda Herring, and I have a lot more questions for Melinda than just beyond this, but quite a starting point for us here, of course, a voice of assurance and authority on this topic, and has been with us talking about this since the very beginning, the very early stages of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center and back with us now live on Bloomberg Sound On. Melinda, It's
great to see you. You have a date to circle now on the calendar. What does that mean in your calculation as you watch the lack of action here on Washington.
Hey, Joe, thanks for having me back.
So I'm fresh in from Kiev and I think I still have those sort of Ukraine goggles on, and it's really scary. There is a lot of gratitude in Ukraine for everything that Washington has done, but there's also frustration. I think that folks in Ukraine don't understand how desperate the situation is. So there's not enough Ammo, and that's been well documented. There's not enough men. It's cold, it's winter,
and what Washington does, others will do. So I think all eyes are on Congress, but it looks like this is going to get pushed back to January, and we know the longer this goes on, the more likely it's going to be difficult to pass. And frankly, it's not really a Ukraine issue anymore. The Congress is not going to move until this National security bill, this border issue is resolved. So it's up to it's incumbent on the
White House to make this happen. If they really want to make sure that Ukraine can win the war.
Well, if this is a month, if you're right, and a lot of folks seem to think that could happen, Melinda, there's a deal on the border. Maybe over the holidays, lawmakers come back, they pass the bill and get it done. Money goes to Ukraine. Maybe late January February, I think is kind of the timeline you're working on there. Did we just send them enough in this latest billion apparently last for now billion dollar trunch to get them through that period of time.
I don't know exactly.
I don't have the numbers in front of you, Joe, but what I do know is that there's not enough ammunition, and the Ukrainians announced today they don't have enough Soviet ammunition, and this is something they've been pleading and begging for. The Europeans promised to put supply chains in place to build the ammunition they needed. The United States also promised to put those things in place, and it hasn't happened.
So we're months and years behind the reality on the ground, and it's going to cause commanders and generals in Ukraine to have to make decisions that they don't want to make. It's going to limit their military options. So the decisions that we're making here in Washington have real life consequences for Ukrainian soldiers. But I think let's broaden this a bit. This is not just about Ukraine. You and I have talked about this a dozen times. What happens in Ukraine
doesn't stay in Ukraine. That's why it's so crucial to get these funds to Ukraine and the broader picture too.
Also in Europe. We saw last.
Week orbon Is vetoing an enormous fifty four billion dollars from the EU and that's the money that keeps the state afloat. So Ukraine, the situation Ukraine is precarious on a number of different levels.
This is so much to ask you about here, Melinda. Before I get to that EU funding, talk to me more about this supply chain, because this has been in the air essentially since the first batch of weapons we sent because we knew it would be difficult to replace them. We don't have the supply chain or the manufacturing chain here in the US to take care of ourselves, never mind Ukraine. And you've just pointed to an important promise from our European allies as well. What should be up
and running right now? What do we need to build?
So the Europeans and the Americans need to basically move to a war footing in terms of getting the Ukrainians the kind of shells they need. The Ukrainians have been very explicit Joe on these are the sort of precision weapons we need.
These are the right AMMO we need.
And it's a complicated process and we haven't put we haven't put it in place. So you know, if we want Ukraine to win the war, President Biden has the authority to make this happen. European governments can stand this up. It's really a question of political will.
The ask from the White House is roughly sixty billion dollars most of which actually would be invested here in the US in our own defense contractors. But you pointed out the EU. That's fifty five billion dollars, Melinda, and the EU now will hold a special summit I read on the first of February to discuss this four year funding package which is being held up by opposition from Victor Orbon of all people. How important is that money when we try to frame the urgency around the request
here in the US, where would this money go? And how badly does Ukraine need it now?
So desperately is the right word. There's three categories of aid. There's the military assistance, and the US is the leader on that. We've done an awesome job. We haven't done enough. We've been way too slow, especially on the AMO side, and we haven't sent enough weapons. When I was in Key of last week, I met with a parliamentarian and he said, thank you for the attack. I'ms but thirty five give me a break, like we need hundreds. We
need as many as possible. So there's the military side, there's the economics side, and the EU has been the leader on this. And this is the money that keeps the state alive. It keeps the railways going, it keeps homes lit, it keeps pensions paid. This is really important and the EU has been the leader on this. So if the EU can't get this through, it's gonna make it much much harder for Ukraine as a state to exist. And then the third bucket is the humanitarian assistance.
Manpower is something that you mentioned and we talked about this when you were just back last week. It's not just men to fight, young strong men to fight, but just people to help with this response and to keep society going here. Melinda put that in perspective for us.
Sure, so, Joe.
In October, I went out to Zepparisia, which is one of the provinces that Vladimir Putin claims he now belongs to Russia, and I spoke to a number of people, and the feeling there among Ukrainian soldiers is that we Ukrainian soldiers, who have been fighting for more than six hundred days, are sticking our necks out, and all of
society in Ukraine is not helping. Some people are having normal lives and they haven't done enough, and that there needs to be a bigger mobilization and that President Zelensky needs to put the economy on a war footing, and everyone needs to be contributing so that the war can be ended as soon as possible. I've heard that sentiment again and again, and I would say that that's growing frustration in Ukraine.
Right now, we're spending time with Melinda Herring from the Atlantic Council amid this debate in Washington on whether to or how to, or to what extent the US should be funding Ukraine. President Zelenski was here not that long ago, while you were in Kiev. As a matter of fact, Melinda, he understands the debate here in the United States, the political element here domestically that's impacting funding for his own country. What do people in Kiev say about this?
What do people in Kiev say about Zelenski's visit. I think they're glad.
That the fact that we're holding this up actually on our own border dispute. That's something that he's aware of. He's a politician, he's in touch with Joe Biden. But what are people walking around Kiev say about securing the border in al Paso?
They're so confused Joe that they're like, why are you guys conflating the two, what do these have to do with each other? And the answer is, we don't know, they're not are totally unrelated. And then you know, I have to explain wonderful American domestic politics that this is a way to get something that the GOP wants and give Biden a black eye. But in Ukraine, when there's air sirens, you know, in the front lines, when when it's a matter of life and death, this feels really silly.
It's really hard to explain how petty the politics are here.
In a war zone.
General Mark Kimmett here on this program me Linda suggested that if there was a lapse in funding, if that had to happen, that landing in the middle of a bitter cold winter might in fact be the best time for it to us fighting begins to slow down. I wonder if you agree with that, knowing the hell that Ukrainian soldiers are about to go through.
I think that the General has a point, Joe, So I don't agree on humanitarian assistance, but on military assistance, if you have to pick a point to slow it down, sure that that make that makes sense.
And we're at a bit of a lull right now.
It's still a hot war, but it's you know, there's limited options you have during during a winter period. But from a humanitarian perspective, you know, if you can't heat homes, if you don't have water, if the trains can't run, if you can't pay pensions and it's twenty degrees, you're going to have a big humanitarian crisis. And I think the bigger point is that's what Vladimir Putin wants.
You know, we discussed this many times.
What was the rocket strategy last year that Putin threw all over Ukraine? And it was to try to create a massive migration and scare the hell out of people so that they would.
Leave and go to go to Europe. And he did not accomplish that.
So you know, in some ways Putin is getting what he wants, sort of pieced by a piece and incrementally. And if I have to sum up where I think we are, I think this is the strategy. He doesn't have to unleash this horrible, super aggressive rocket strategy. If you look at the number of rockets he's shooting this year compared to last year, the number is quite a bit lower. And I think Putin thinks he has the
West in Ukraine exactly where he wants us. He's very tactical, and he's very patient, and he thinks that he cares more about Ukraine than the West does.
Wow. Chilling analysis from Melinda Herring. Melinda, thank you for your first hand accounts and your insights today. As always, I look forward to these conversations. You's senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. We Linda Herring with us live on Bloomberg. So some of the panel, so Rick and Jenie can take a swing at what we have here.
Our signature panel is back today Bloomberg Politics Contributors. Rick, there was some skepticism, maybe I can use that word on Capitol Hill when the White House sent a letter about when Ukraine funding would run out. Here, now we've got it from the Pentagon, does that create any new urgency?
Yeah, I think it's a little bit more urgency. It's not like the Senate negotiators don't already know that. Maybe puts a little pressure on the House guys as they are at home having to explained this to their constituents. But it also, you know, Ford tells a story about how equipped is the Department Offense and the Biden administration
in being able to support this to begin with. I mean, we just heard from Melinda about, you know, how frustrated the Ukrainians have been about not getting enough weapons systems on time, you know, to be able to fight the war that they're trying to fight. And I think the Biden administration has to really calibrate are they really ready to support this, especially if there's not an immediate funding between now and the end of the year.
Does a letter like this matter, Genie, when the whole thing rides on a border deal.
It does matter.
But you know, I thought what Melinda said to you, which was so chilling, was not only the description of the cold and the lack of men and the lack of ammunition, but the confusion of Ukrainians. I mean, there's confusion for Americans, but imagine the confusion for Ukrainians thinking that their future depends on a border deal between the US and Mexico to address a problem that has been vexing US for decades. So you can just really really
feel their pain and frustration on this. And yet as we look at what's happening in Congress and we're going to talk about that, it doesn't sound like they're going to get any at least in the short term, any relief or any clarification or clarity on that, and it's got to be just, you know, god awful for them sitting over there watching this.
Well, Genie is right, We're gonna flip the coin on this talk about the border deal or lack thereof.
Next on Bloomberg, you're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in alf Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
So, as I mentioned, the Senators are still kicking around Washington. I mean, I guess it's a pretty good time to be here. They've got the Christmas Tree up across the street, the city center there, the Capitol Tree is pretty nice, and you can park kind of anywhere right now, maybe
get a table at your favorite restaurant. The problem is the border deal they were supposed to be sticking around for does not appear to be emerging, and that may be all right, considering the fact that you know, for the last twenty or thirty years we haven't been able to get this done. So another five minutes. Maybe this leeds into January, if you ask Lindsey Graham. And of course all this at the expense of the people of Ukraine.
As we were just discussing with Melinda and the panel, Lindsay Graham on Sunday Morning TV says, don't hold your breath.
Well, I think this will go into next year. I've been talking to the people at the table. The White House got engaged five days ago. They sent over a supplemental with border security provisions that did nothing to change policy. We've been talking to him since September, five days ago. They finally said at this table, Sarah Lankfort's doing a good job. The bottom line here is we feel like we're being jammed. We're not anywhere close to a deal. It'll go into next year.
Talk about being jammed now. Interesting as we hear from the players at the table, James Langford, Chris Murphy, kirston Cinema, they say they're making progress, but look, there's a lot of details here, even on the big strokes. Behind all of them, there are great details. Mitch McConnell and Senator Langford, by the way, send a note to colleagues. You know, remember we talked about the Dear Colleague letter. It's never good in this case, his Republicans will not be rushed
to a deal this week. And if Chuck Schumer moves forward with plans for a procedural vote as he promised to quote, it would not succeed unquote. So let's reassemble the panel for their take. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzino, of course, with us here Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick, I don't know where we're going here. Everyone could look like a genius. If a deal emerges, say the first or second week of January, how much space should we give them?
Yeah, look, I mean you're gonna have to give them whatever space you can because it's the only game in town. And I think the Deer College letter was just a rearguard action to try and keep some of the caucus, like Lindsey Graham quiet because they've been upset that they
don't know the details of this negotiation. So look, anytime you have a group of people, especially a triparty negotiation like this with Cinema and Langford and Murphy a Democrat, a Republican and an independent, all trying to negotiate a deal. Everybody in those other caucuses, the ours and the d's,
are going to feel left out and concerned. And so all of a sudden, Biden comes in there and starts saying, Hey, you know, we got to really get this done for the for the you know, people of Israel, for the people of Ukraine, for our southern border.
You know, then they're going to feel jammed.
My own view, I think the White House ought to turns time and attention on the Democrats, get them say yes to a deal. It's much more important, frankly, for the Democrats to get a deal than it is for Republicans right now. But bottom line is sure doesn't sound like a deal's eminent. And so we're talking about a completely insane January, considering all the things that come they're going to have to do within thirty days of coming back on the eighth of January.
I say we just go to Des Moines. We'll hide there, Rick and Jennie until this is sorted out. I don't know, Genie, I want to hear from you on this let's say Joe Biden does start calling Democrats. I don't know what progress he can make without something a little bit more detailed to sell. But you hear Lindsey Graham, there a lot of backhands at the White House. Hey, they just started five days ago. Should Joe Biden have gotten on this earlier?
Yeah, you know, I have to agree on that. I think the White House needed to be present earlier on this, But quite frankly that said, I'm not sure it would have helped. He's got a real problem on his hands. Number One, he decided to put all of this forward in one big lump, and of course you're talking about
some of the most vexing problems. And while it made sense in one perspective, if this thing doesn't turn out where there's going to be a lot of rethinking about this approach, and so I think the White House has got to own that part of it. Of Course, the incentives for Republicans to do anything on the border at this point are nil, and we're we heard from from Donald Trump over the weekend. Does anybody think he is going to help make this an easy vote for any Republicans?
You know, that's the reality. He doesn't want anything on the border a deal for Biden. He also doesn't want to support Ukraine. You couple that with what's happening on the left. Progressives don't want Biden to give away the store. So this is a huge enormous challenge. And you know, January eighth, Langford is saying they might have something to do.
Well, they've got a lot to do. They return, there's.
The Iowa Caucus for funding before four departments run out of money. On the nineteenth, the twenty ninth we of this, we have New Hampshire and then right after that the rest of the government runs out of funding. So the idea that you're going to fix of the border in any kind of concerted way in those couple weeks is really really tough to imagine.
At this point, I shouldn't be laughing, but just listening to you two guys described January, I'm taking the month off. You know, Rick Gen brings up a really interesting point here, and that's Donald Trump, because I don't know which way this cuts. We understand now that he is in regular talks, He's in regular contact with Speaker Mike Johnson. So what happens if Donald Trump tells Republicans to vote against the deal.
Yeah, I think that it just depends upon what the terms of the bill's going to be. First of all, getting Mike Johnson to put it on this calendar will be number one. If there's a Senate deal, it'll go on to the House calendar. The question is will it be a bipartisan vote. Typically it would be a bypartisan vote. We've seen over three hundred members willing to support these kinds of transactions. It doesn't really matter what the Freedom Caucus thinks about this or Donald Trump if you have
two hundred Democrats voting with you. So look, I think that the House is going to take care of itself. Donald Trump is lobbying against Ukraine funding, He's lobbying against funding for the border. The last thing he wants to do is these things become Republican orthodoxy, because he's way outside of the normal Republican level of support for these things.
Even the public.
Republicans support it more than Donald Trump does. So the last thing he wants to do is have to react to this when he's fighting away. As Genie said in Iowa on the fifteenth and the twenty third in New Hampshire, these are not things he's going to spend time talking about.
So I don't know.
I mean, it's it'll be interesting because if the House does take it up and it keeps it as an open vote, I think it could be an incredible rebuke to Donald Trump at the hands of you know, his sort of you know, favorite speaker today.
Well, it would be, which is why I am deeply curious about that. And I think to your point, Genie, he's not going to like anything that comes up here that doesn't involve a wall with his name on it. I didn't know if I should bring this up or not. I've got to ask you both about this. A little scandal that came up over the weekend. A Senate staffer is out of a job. Stafford a Senator Ben Cardon
after recording a graphic sex tape. This is real in the historic Heart two sixteen hearing room, the encounter will say happen on the dais the Daily caller out with tapes over the weekend. I'm just wondering if this is done. I have to ask you guys about it. Our listeners and viewers I don't think would forgive me if I didn't. This is all I heard about for half the weekend, Genie. Does there need to be an investigation? Or he got fired?
So let's move on because this won't help the way people look at the hill.
I wish you had gone to Rick Davis on this first, because he's he's going to have a lot to say on the No, you know, I think he fired. He should have been fired. You know, obviously I did not see the tapes, assuming they are real, and there does need to be an investigation, because my gosh, is our government buildings just open for these kinds of things?
Where well, that's the question.
It's baffling to me that this could happen. I kept thinking it was a deep fake. I'm not saying it was, but I sort of hope it was. But I have no evidence that it opened it was.
That's the question this is. I'm going to him right now. Look, I mean, there's a lot of SALATIONIOU stuff you could talk about here. But are we to believe that all these rooms are open for access? This is same room played host of Supreme Court nominees nine to eleven commission hearings. This is right where Senator Chris Coons was sitting for crying out loud. Should we be concerned?
Uh, I don't think you have to be.
Too concerned about staffers going into hearing rooms.
Right.
This was, you know, just a couple of people walking through the Capitol on a tour and decide to have sex.
Yeah, and I hear them.
That'd be one thing.
I'd be more concerned about the cleanliness of that hearing room the next time they stake a seat on that diet.
I hope this is a real effort to do that. We'll move on from here, but my goodness, someone need to call the sergeant at arms. You're both very graceful with that. By the way, I just you know, everyone's kicking out this wholemade video. What do the Capitol police have? Aren't there cameras in all these rooms? I digress.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
I'm Joe Matthew in Washington alongside Kaylee Lines, and as I mentioned, Kaye, there are a couple folks left. A couple senators are knocking around. They were hoping to get you a deal on the border. It's looking like that would take a Christmas miracle. But there are a couple of other things they might need to get done. What do we have military promotions in the air eleven of them four stars. This brings us back to the Tubberville blockade.
And then there's the matter of the FAA reauthorization.
Which has to be done by your right so.
It could be a pretty short menu by the time they're.
Done an extension on f a A, which is what I hear they're going to do, right.
Yeah, that was like a stealth introduction that I can.
Never I can't never tell the difference between radio and TV radio.
We can't either because now they're all the same.
But Kaylee, I thought they.
Could do an f a A extension until March or April by the end of the year, not a full reauthor.
It would be a short term kick it to next year. Will figure out then, right.
As they like to do.
Yeah, mcny cannon balls into the pool.
I just thought we were chatting.
Of course we don't. I mean, do we need to tell everyone every week? It's no acting.
No, that was chess Club president high School, a lot from the obviously there learnt a lot of members of the clubs.
We're not getting a deal this week, right, can we just go?
So I don't be on that when you know, granted, anything can change at any time, and any politician tells you they know exactly what's going on, you can completely you know, mostly throughout the window. So when Lindsay says, Lindsay Graham says, you know, we're not going to get a deal this week, I think I might not get a deal this week. But if you get a deal tomorrow, they'll be the first one to say, oh yea, I always knew were going to get a deal, so that
I always take that with a great assault. I just don't get the feeling, especially.
With the house gone now.
Can you imagine the new speaker bringing the house back this week?
Really really really hard to do? What to have a deal?
They could come back too? Might be correct?
Yeah, well yeah, if you're deadline and how hard is the is the December thirty first deadline? Really I think that's a that's a that's having on Ukraine funding.
Okay, you know I've been watching the show, yeah.
From the green room, and I'm trying to articulate exactly We're trying to say something without sounding like I'm being nasty. So I'm gonna put myself in the role of omb. Who are the folks who came out and said the
money runs out on December thirtieth. If I was still at OMB and Nancy Pelosi was in charge of the House and I put out a press release and said the money for Ukraine is gonna run out of December thirtieth, and she didn't want to give any money Ukraine, she would completely ignore it as a partisan hack, sort of using my office to advance a political like she'd throw it away.
As what it comes down now.
But if it's from DODA, same thing, same thing, especially if it's the Trump DoD right.
I mean, so is politics in everything? Yeah? It is the issue on funny Ukraine? Real?
Yes, I'm not sure how seriously the members of Congress look at those deadlines and say, okay, is that a real deadline or is there a couple of days in there. There's really not much difference, is there between January fourth and December twenty seventh?
And they're probably right.
Well, except that Bloomberg obtained a letter from the Pentagon that says it's December thirtieth, there's going to be no more money. So there is that, But I also feel like the Senate, it seems like it's taking the deadline more seriously, right Chuck Schumer kept people around. These negotiators are still in the room, they're talking to the White House. Should the House be involved in these conversations if ultimately this is going to be a bill the House has
to pass too. I just wonder if everyone's going to work so hard to come to a deal and then not all parties agree to it.
Yeah, I think in a perfect world that would be the way it works.
Keep in mind, Washington doesn't function properly right now, So I mean, that's not what I don't get the impression that is happening. Are they communicating certainly?
Is this a you know, a four corners you know.
Sort of a group of eight combination of the House and the Senate talking about it.
No, they're not. But that's not as partisan as it is institutional.
You've covered this a long time, you know, regardless of which parties are in charge of the House and the Senate, there's still that institutional tension between those two bodies, and the Senate when they cut a deal, are going to expect their deal to pass, and the House when they cut a deal is expect their deal to pass, right, But it never happens like that.
So should they be doing that? Yeah? Are they? Probably at a very low level.
But clearly this is not an equal discussion between the House and the Senate. And does that mean that it's going to take longer.
Yes, it does, and everyone's afraid to get jammed by the other chamber. What do you make of this revelation that Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, is now communicating regularly with Donald Trump. Would you expect that to be the case? And how much can the former president thumb the scale on this?
Oh, the second question is really interesting.
The first question is not.
Yes, it makes complete sense for the speaker of the Republican House representives to be speaking to the de facto to the standard exactly and the likely nominee that in fact, you'd be if they weren't having the conversation, we'd be asking probably harder questions. Whether or not Trump could put his thumb on the scale depends on whether or not, in part he wants to I'm not sure he has a position on this yet, and Trump doesn't won't take a position you.
Know if he if he he's not.
There yet, so I'm not sure he's I don't know where he is on funding Ukraine. My guess is he's against it, but he's for funding UH the border and for funding board for Israel. So you know, it might be one of those things that doesn't fall neatly in any package. So I think he could put the thumb on the scale with a couple of members, probably are
those of the member Joe a deal on the border. Yeah, you know, unless it's a really really good deal and he can take credit for it, I mean, that's that's that's the beauty, right if Donald Trump can deliver the votes to get the deal and it's a good deal. Maybe, but you're right, the starting position, I'll agree with you, is it. The last thing that Trump wants politically is for Biden to be able to declare a victory this close to the midterm, to the election.
Well, we also had the former president weighing in when we first thought the government was shutting down. He seemed to be encouraging the crowd that said, you know, hey, shut it down.
He had that shots a couple of times when I was there. Yeah, and he had a budget director who really really wanted to shut the government down a couple of times, and we did it once.
We did it once seriously.
Indeed, we signed a bunch of spending bills that I wish that we had not, and he wished he had not after he signed them.
Well, and we'll see if he has to weigh in again come January nineteenth, February second, when we're dealing with potentially to two tiers.
Five minutes after Iowa getting closer and close in Iowa government shut down.
To go back to this idea that that Joe raised of Mike Johnson having really close communication with the former president, I wonder if the former president might ultimately be the best ally he had because how many allies does he realistically have in Congress right now?
Talk about Mike.
Yeah, keep in mind, it's sort of when Donald Trump got to Washington, and I always said one of his greatest strengths was he didn't have any relationships in town. And one of the greatest weaknesses he had was he didn't have any relationships.
True Mike Johnson exactly. It can cut both ways.
Mike does not have the baggage that that that that McCarthy had and you know, bad experiences in the past for example with you know, certain members. But he also hasn't been out there raising the money for the last ten years and he doesn't have that good will built up, so he can cut absolutely both ways. Again, come back
to that to the threshold question. It would be strange for Mike Johnson not to be talking to Donald Trump, but I think that the fact that he's talking to him isn't really that remarkable.
So take us for a walk. What's your view here? I mean, do you do you have a a kind of they're going to half in your head about what's the next deal, because there's a lot that needs to get that. Yes, they're not going to shut down, We're going to get a border deal that makes all this happen.
You know.
I remember back when I used to campaign for a living and people will say, oh, it's not I hate that Washington isn't more bipartisan, and I'm like, no, No, the problem is it's two bipartisan. Because there's one thing that everybody can agree on emails on this I know, and that's spending more money, and that's what they will agree on.
They will figure out a way to give everybody enough of what they want to pass the Ukraine funding bill and Israeli funded bill, a tie one funding bill, and a border security bill, and they will keep the government open because the spending numbers will just keep going up and up and up until they buy enough of ship.
That's how you get to.
Say not everyone wants to spend more money. Members of the Freedom cock Is that are pushing for pretty draconian cut.
You don't get thirty three trillion dollars in debt by accident, and you don't get it with one party doing it to you. Both parties hold hand in hand to get you thirty three trillion dollars in debt. The only thing this town can agree on and a bipartisan fashion, is spending more money.
So Bob Goods running the Freedom Caucus now we understand a good steward. He's not getting along with Kevin McCarthy, who we hear is going to try to primary him. What's the next year look like for the Freedom cars.
Oh, it's rough all over the place. It's gonna be rough in the House.
I've had folks call me about the the Nancy base race down in South Carolina. I live in South Carolina still like I went home after I left Washington, and there are folks, you know, trying to line up to run against Nancy. And there's folks asking me, you know, who should run against Nancy. So I mean, no, no, no, no, no, who do I know? It's a different district. It's down in Charleston. Not that that makes a difference. As you know, you don't have to live in district.
Little piece political exactly.
It used to be four members of Congress who lived in one district in Wisconsin.
That's another story for another day.
So no, it's there's gonna be a lot of internal bloodbaths over that when when Patrick McHenry and I've not talked to Patrick, so I'm not giving away any any private conversations. When Patrick McHenry announced he was retiring from Congress, to me, that was the biggest red flag that the Republicans themselves think they are going.
To lose the majority.
Wow, because Patrick, even though he was term limited, technically could have easily received an exemption to maintain his position as chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. So here's a guy that if he wins and they hold the majority, he's going to be financial service as chairman. And he announces he's leaving. To me, that tells me that he
doesn't think that we're going to keep the majority. And when you break it down and you talk about Republicans fighting against Republicans in certain districts, you talk about losing Kevin McCarthy in his ability to raise all that money, a lot of the things that are lining up to have a tough year for the House Republicans. Does Donald Trump make that better or worse? That's really sort of the unknown at this point. But right now, if you had to bet, you'd bet that the Republicans would struggle
to keep the House. And that also doesn't bread a lot of good will in that building.
So you think it's not that people are deciding to retire because of dysfunction, but maybe they recognize the dysfunction is going to cost them.
It's a variety of things, right Many of them gaily that it's hard to sort of paint with a broad brush. Some of them are retiring to run for higher office. Similar times they've been here forever and then summer the time because they might think they're losing the majority some of the time because it's just not fun anymore.
And it really isn't.
And are the people who are running for higher office saying, well, I wasn't going to run for higher office, but this place is so miserable, so why not take a chance?
I run for higher office.
See it can be a combination of all things. But this is when you walk into the building and I win the building, not that much, but more than the average citizen. It's not friendly right now, and that's the members on that people, inter party, intrap party. And it's not just Republicans, Democrats have their own issues. It's institutional and it's it's a cross party lines.
It's tough right now.
So much for the Christmas spirit. Yes, fun when you started? Was it fun when I started?
You know?
Or has that just been your tenure?
I think things have certainly changed. I think I think that we've gone. It's the vek Ramaswami, Oh God, phenomena that I and vivek Ramaswami is someone who came of a age in politics during the Donald Trump era. So for someone who's only been involved in politics for six or seven years, Donald Trump looks normal. Donald Trump can get away with what Donald Trump does because he's a he's a unique thing.
He is a black Swan event, right.
But everybody else is out there thinking, well, if I act like Donald Trump, I'll be successful as he is on both parties.
And that's just not. That's not the way that.
Things are supposed to work, and it's the reason things aren't working.
Great to see you in person a week from today.
Is uplifting you?
Today?
Is Christmas?
Is it not?
Well, we never ask uplifting? It is Wow, it is You're doing something.
Right week for today.
In fact, I just got asked to do television on Monday morning at seven o'clock.
I'll set up.
Are doing this? You guys aren't doing next Monday?
Not a chance.
But I'll see you the week after that.
Good.
I just I just had a phone call about the new government in Argentina.
We can do foreign.
Policies all right.
Excellent.
Thanks for listening to the Sound on podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern time at bloomberg dot com,